Will Saletan: The Annihilation of Truth

Happy Monday. Welcome to the Bulwark podcast. I’m Charlie Sykes joined because it is Monday. My my colleague, Will Saletan. Have a great weekend, Will.

It was great seeing you in DC last Thursday night. Love it. Love it. Happy birthday, Joe Biden. Can we just say?

Like, the guy is what? Eighty one today? Okay.

So you had to go the the he’s that old again. There are a lot of people there apparently who are, like, would you guys stop talking about the fact that he’s old? So are we supposed to acknowledge the birthday at, Okay. Speaking at birthdays, it feels like every Monday we have another one of these cataclysmic polls. We we get the burden of doing the Monday podcast.

So here’s the NBC pulled. Biden’s standing hits new lows amid the Israel Hamas war. So happy birthday, mister president. Deep dive in the Washington Post, you saw that. Biden Campaign works to ease democratic anxiety over reelection chances.

Yep.

We could start with all of that. But can we just start with something that may not be on people’s immediate radar screen? That I think is really kind of amazing. This election in Argentina, bear with us for a moment. You have a guide that makes Trump look pretty normal guy who shows up at rallies with a chainsaw.

He’s sort of an anarcho libertarian kinda guy, far right figure. Shocks everybody I’m not everybody, but he wins the the presidential election in Argentina. And the American right is absolutely orgasmic. So Mike Lee, senator from Utahos, but most of the weekend pushing a batshit crazy conspiracy theory about January six then pivoted, and it almost his entire jitter, whatever, you know, x timeline is how excited he is about this election of this far right president in Argentina. And the headline in Mediaite is leftist sons of bitches be afraid.

Trump Tucker Carlson Margery Taylor, green, an online conservative celebrate Argentina’s new far right president. They haven’t been this excited. Since Victor Orban was elected, and the kinda neo adjacent fascist prime minister was elected in Italy. I mean, so will, this has gone global. So let’s remember.

So Jair Bolsonaro was right next door Yeah.

In Brazil. Right? So they got rid of him,

but Argentina said hold our beer.

Right. So, like, this is clearly the thing that’s happening in our time. Right? There’s these sort of far right or authoritarian types getting elected in countries where you wouldn’t expect

it. Now Well, is he authoritarian? He’s a libertarian. And see my head starting to hurt. How can you be an authoritarian and an anarcho capitalist Right?

Disruptor, libertarian at the same time.

I don’t know. So Charlie Sykes guy is like Milton Friedman on economics. Right? He’s, like, cut everything, deregulate vouchers. But then he wants to ban abortion, apparently.

He’s sort of libertarian, but sort of not. And kind of a

burn it all down, blow it all kind of guy, basically.

That’s totally his appeal. Yeah.

Like, that Bern Neil Liberal Globalism to the ground type thing. Right. Which is why Steve Bannon and those guys are just, like, know?

This is very Steve Bannon. Right? And honestly, this is exactly what Steve Bannon wants. He talks about this. Right?

It’s not just America. These anti globalists like Steve Bannon are actually globalist. Right? They want a global revolution. They’re not really about so much about America.

They wanna tear down the establishment all around the world in in a whole bunch of countries. And Bannon was what in Italy. I mean, they they go all over the place trying to generate this. So they’re very excited.

Very have

another one of these guys. Who just tears everything down. This is exactly like the Trump election in twenty sixteen when a lot of people who didn’t agree with Trump about some things were just like this guy’s gonna tear things down. Let’s tear it down, and he’s the vehicle to do it. But what comes after is, you know, kind of alarming this guy has

What could go wrong?

Really. The authoritarian angle Charlie Sykes to reinforce for people. Yeah. So his policies are sort of Milton Friedman. Right?

Milton Friedman with a chainsaw?

Yeah. The the vibe is not Miltonfrey.

It’s like Elon Musk, Steve Bannon, and Milton Friedman had a baby. Okay. Where was the k? That’s a work in progress, I think.

But this guy talks about he said the election was gonna be stolen. He said the election was rigged against him. He said this about the Brazilian election. He said this about the American election. So he’s part of this wave of let’s reject election results if I don’t win.

That’s my definition of authoritarian in this context. Well, clearly, the right feels that it’s on the

March globally. I mean, they feel the wind that they’re back right now. They’re very excited about the Biden poles and everything. So before we get to all of that, sick of deep breath there, in my newsletter today, I I spent a little time on Mike Lee because I continue to be fascinated by by the way, I was thinking about you, Will, that you did this deep dive into the psychology of Lindsey Graham. I think you’re going to have to do this for Mike Lee too.

Now you helped me here because I speculated that in the distant myths of the before times, that Lee was kind of considered kind of a serious conservative, constitutional conservative. I mean, he made these alliances with with Ted So he was never, like, really Orthodox mainstream, but he was he was plausible. People talked about him as a possible Supreme Court nominee. Right? And he spends the weekend putting out this bizarre, absurd conspiracy theory based on these January six tapes.

They’ve released all the January six surveillance tapes. Now this is the the new speaker. And most of them are exactly what you’d expect to see. Mike Lee, senior senator from Utah decides to glom onto this one image of a guy in a red hat doing something with his hand. He said, you know, basically implying that he was flashing a badge which means you see it was all a false flag operation incited by feds.

Well, it turns out that it’s not a badge. It’s a vape pen. He’s not a fed. He is a rather notorious January sixth insurrectionist who has just sentenced to four years in jail. Guy broke in to Nancy Pelosi’s office stole a photo, was screaming at police officers, calling them traitors and Nazis, And so, no, that turns out to be complete Bulwark.

But Mike Lee spends all weekend doubling down on it and attacking Liz Cheney. Like, you covered this up. What did you destroy? Why did you not want us to see this? And I guess it’s, again, one of these moments, and you dealt with this in such depth and such brilliance with with Lindsey Graham.

What happens to a guy like Mike Lee? Who wakes up one morning and says, yeah, you know, I’m gonna follow the bat she crazy conspiracy theorist down this rabbit hole. I’m not gonna try to be a serious senator anymore. I’m just going the whole Elon MTG, Alex Jones route. Because what?

Does he need that to get elected in freaking Utah? I mean, it goes back to this, the incentive structures and and the trajectory You documented how Lindsey Graham went from the old Lindsey Graham to the new Lindsey Graham being a sucker. I wanted to see what you would do with Mike Lee going from serious conservative to batshit crazy conservative. And and, like, how this happens? I mean, do they hand out the red pills in the Senate Cloke rooms now what?

So you’re right to talk about the larger phenomenon of these guys going over it into the cult. But I think the way that each of them does it is is distinctive. I’m a huge believer, Charlie Sykes personality. Personalityality drives everything, and personalities are different. So Mike Lee is just different from Lindsey Graham.

Lindsey Graham, he’s basically a hawk, and he sees everything through this lens. And his corruptions are more lawyerly.

Okay.

Mike Lee, I think Charlie Sykes just a flake.

I mean, there’s a lot of flakes. Was he always a flake, or did something cause him to flake out? This is what I always wanna know. I mean, was he like this always?

Yeah. I kinda think I think he had this tendency. I think he’s different from Graham in this He’s also more dogmatic. Graham is a more practical guy, and Lee is a sort of a libertarian ideologue. I remember Charlie, in October of twenty sixteen, I think Mike Lee was as strong as anyone in saying that Donald Trump was immoral, was dangerous, renounced to support for him.

Right?

But he toyed around a little bit with the, you know, election denialism. Remember the results, some of those text messages and things? Yeah. He dabbled in it.

Yeah. But this stuff with the January sixth defendants and the the tapes coming out and oh, we’re gonna find something about the government running This is not just the flakes. So and it’s not just Marjorie Taylor Green. Kevin McCarthy was on Maria Bartaromo this weekend, was also talking about releasing this video. There’s a whole bunch of Republican politicians who, even if they themselves aren’t crazy, aren’t flaking out, they recognize that this is a large part of the Republican Party, and they’re using sympathy for the January sixth defendants.

And some of these conspiracy theories, And based on, you know, we’re gonna find something in the video, including fake things that are not, you know, the video doesn’t actually show

Mhmm.

To support that. And Once again, I am amazed when I hear these conspiracy theories, like the one you’re describing. Here’s the guy with the vape pen. I’m amazed how credulous people are in the name of being suspicious.

They want to believe it. I mean, this is the psychology that I think has become more obvious that If you want to believe something, if you want the real truth, you’re gonna go on to anything, including things that are absolutely contradictory. I mean, so there are people out there who will argue that January sixth was really antifa. January sixth was really a Fed Falls flag operation, but It’s also true that January six was our seventeen seventy six, done by great Americans patriots who are now martyrs to the cause of defending democracy. So you can believe all of those things at

the same time. Right? And what amazes me is the whole time that people are spouting these crazy conspiracy theories. They think they are being suspicious. They think they’re seeing through the facade, what the government is telling you.

Yes. So we’re not gonna believe what the government or the establishment saying. But we’re gonna believe the nuttiest thing that some guy posted on social media. And here’s a perfect example of how they don’t scrutinize they’re drinking the kool Aid, and they’re just not scrutinizing what they’re told by their friends.

Okay. Let’s just step back from the crazy stuff. There clearly is a significant political incentive or the the feeling that it is important to do this revisionist history of January six, to whitewash January six, to somehow absolve Donald Trump to absolve them. I mean, let’s leave aside the conspiracy theories and the credulity. Obviously, there is a political agenda here, right, going into twenty twenty four that January six was not what you think it is, and it’s certainly not the narrative that it was an attack on democracy and attack on the capital incited by Donald Trump in an attempt to overthrow the election is not the correct interpretation.

They obviously feel some anxiety about the way January sixth will be remembered and the way it will play in the election.

True? Absolutely. And part of what I saw in this McCarthy interview yesterday was he’s trying to change our narrative understanding, our historical understanding of January sixth. Right? So he tried to screw up the committee.

Liz Cheney spent all that time trying to just nail down the facts. And I thought she did overkill. And now I’m like, no.

No. No.

We need more of it because January sixth is in the past, but the lies about January sixth are in the present and the future. And we’re gonna have to fight the whole time just to nail down in the public understanding what really happened and that this is not some government conspiracy that McCarthy, likely, whatever theory of what happened is just Bulwark.

Well, and, you know, we thought after twenty sixteen that we were into this era of alternative facts and alternative reality. I don’t think we had any idea how Bennett was going to get. And, of course, we are still at this that the at the dawn of the artificial intelligence age, which we’re just gonna scramble everything. If we are not insane now, I think we will be at some point, Because I guess one of the things about the about January sixth is that we saw it with our own eyes. Right?

We saw the pictures. We saw the video. This is the strongest evidence. And now we’re living in a period where people will look at it and they won’t believe what they are seeing. So the question is, what constitutes proof anymore?

You and I had this conversation, I think, about, you know, Israel and Hamas. Well, here’s our evidence. Here’s our, you know, the here’s the data and everything. Well, Are we living in an age now where people go, I don’t necessarily believe in audio tape. I don’t believe a video tape.

I don’t believe firsthand witnesses. I’m gonna believe the Randall on the internet who suggests that everything I think is completely wrong upside down.

Right. And Charlie Sykes sitting here talking about a picture, right, where Adam Kinsing and others were able to point to it and say that’s not a badge. Right? That’s a vape pen. A vape pen.

What happens when it is a badge? What happens when the picture has already been doctored? Right. And now you’re having to argue over which picture is real. Now you’re talking about the provenance of images, the provenance of videos.

This is gonna be an absolute nightmare. And as we know, Putin and other authoritarians thrive on sowing discord and sowing dissension not just about the way things are and who’s your enemy within your country, but what really happened. Right? They spread lies.

This is the annihilation of truth that Hannah Arrent, talked about. The destruction of people’s confidence in their critical ability to determine what is true and what is not true. So eventually, you just decide, I’m gonna believe what I’m told. I’m gonna believe what’s most convenient for me. We’re gonna get to the the Biden poll in just a minute, but since we’re on this issue of truth, let’s talk about social media for a moment and what’s happening with that.

So last week, Elon Musk tweeted out just, I think, an egregiously anti Semitic, bigoted post. Do you disagree? I mean, I saw somebody saying that this was unwise. This is, you know, Elon Musk steps. No.

No. No. He takes the most vile anti semitic narrative, and he retweeted it to sixty million people saying this is the truth. Okay. So Elon Musk didn’t just step into it.

This is not a gap. I described him as the big at in full, and the reaction to this was pretty dramatic. Lots of advertisers who’ve been hanging on by their fingernails have said, okay. We’re we’re done with x, Twitter, whatever you wanna call the jitter. Well, so you wanna talk about Elon Musk and what you thought of that, tweet?

Sure. Well, first of all, I mean, it was definitely an anti Semitic tweet, but I think what was underrated was This was also a racist tweet, and I mean, not about Jews, about the tweet actually said that Jews were supporting and bringing in Hordes of minorities. That was the phrase. Horids of minorities.

The replacement theory.

It’s the white replacement theory. It’s a twofer, that’s my point. It’s not just about Jews. Sort of Then the replacement theory has, like Jews or the masterminds, the puppeteers, but their tools are the minorities. The people of color, immigrants, whatever.

And that part of it, I think, was actually more central to the tweet that he was responding to than it was due. So Musk’s responses I’m not an anti semite. I wasn’t trying to make a point about Jews, but he’s clearly endorsing a point about these minorities coming into our country and threatening white people.

So, Apple and IBM two of, X’s biggest tech advertisers said they are pausing their advertising Lionsgate, Disney, Comcast, Paramount, Warner Brothers, Discovery, and another firms also pause their marketing. Elon Musk is not taking this well. He’s saying that he’s going to file a thermonuclear lawsuit against media matters for writing about all of this, but the boycott is gathering pace of whether this makes a difference. I don’t know. I sense that this may be the tipping point but I’ve been wrong about this sort of thing so often in the past, I don’t know.

Do you have any sense about it? I mean, Caryas Wishers pointing out that, look, The glide path here is pretty obvious. She says x has degenerated into a toxic stew of grievance, and it is largely now useless as a social media site. I don’t see it coming back from this.

Well, first of all, there’s a business aspect to this. A lot of people a year ago say, Elon Musk would do something nutty or stupid or insulting and offensive. And people would say, well, I still gotta be on Twitter. Right? Because Twitter’s the place, and it’s at But over the course of a year, a year and a half, he’s managed to wear down the value of the place.

And a lot of people have left. I mean, I hardly post there at all now. And a lot of other people have also bailed. So it’s no longer gonna be essential to be on Twitter. And when it isn’t essential, when, say, you know, the government of Israel or the government of the United States is on threads or sub stack notes or some other place, and the conversation has moved elsewhere as it increasingly is, then Musk can’t play that card anymore.

He’s not a utility that everybody needs. So he has degraded the value to the point where the moral factors can play more of a role. I think that’s what’s going on with the advertisers. They’re gonna follow eyeballs as the eyeballs are moving elsewhere.

Where are you? Because I I see you do, some excellent stuff on threads. You do stuff on sub stack. I mean, what what is your sense of where to go? Because I am actively thinking about this now.

I’ve I’ve hung on to the bitter end, I think, but What kind of reaction and interaction are you getting from the other sites?

I’m primarily on threads right now. I don’t wanna be entirely in the control of of any billionaire. So I don’t wanna be entirely just restricted to threads, but it’s a it’s been a good place. I think threads is a very good lifeboat to get off of Twitter Yeah.

That’s kinda what I’m and David French is is over there big time. He’s basically completely moved from Twitter to threads.

Yeah. And, again, I’m not telling people to, you know, bet everything on the Facebook empire. Right? But threads is a good place to bail out of Twitter. And then we can sort of see from there.

There’s there are other places. I like sub stack notes, but threads has enough of a conversation going that if you’re looking to get out of Twitter, if you’re just feeling like I don’t wanna be there. Then threats is a fine place. I still think Charlie Sykes Twitter is gonna be a good place to go to talk to the right, to talk to conservatives, because that’s it’s the new truth social, basically. And if you don’t wanna talk to them, you know, stay out of it, but If you wanna speak to that audience, you’re not gonna find much of that audience currently on threads.

And we’re now hearing, Sema four had a story about how, the new CEO of, Twitter Linda Yacarino has, turned the services hail Mary better than imagine one hundred million dollar political advertising business over to her son. And her son their son has apparently been given the job of reaching out to Republican digital advertising firms and spenders, which I think that shows that they they agree with you that they’re gonna go all in on trying to get some of that right wing money at Okay. So let’s get back to Elon Musk and the tweet, which I don’t think was a close call. It was interesting as kind of a in one of these, rorschach tests. Of where would the right go on all of this?

People like Charlie Sykes and Candace Owens, don’t seem to even bother by this right wing anti Semitism. I mean, you and I have spent time talking about left wing anti Semitism. But Ron DeSantis, We haven’t talked about a lot on this podcast, and probably we will talk less

as time goes on.

Was on he was on with CNN. Right? Jake Tapper, do I have this right? Yep. Okay.

And Jake Tapper asks Ron DeSantis, what do you think about Elon Musk? I thought this was pretty revealing.

And right now, major companies such as Apple and Disney are pulling their ads from X because Elon Musk, openly endorsed this anti Semitic conspiracy theory, that Jews, are conspiring to replace white Americans with minority immigrants. I wondered if you saw the comment and if you condemn it.

Easy question.

I did not see the comment. And so I know that Elon has had a target on his back ever since he purchased Twitter, because I think he’s taking it in a direction that a lot of people who are used to controlling the narrative don’t like. So, I was a big supporter of him purchasing Twitter. I think they’re obviously still working some stuff out, but I but I did not see those comments.

Alright. Well, let me just show you. So here’s a post claiming that Jews are pushing a dialectical hatred against whites and are flooding the country with hoards of minorities and Elon Musk replies, you have said the actual, truth. He goes on to say that he’s talking about, the ADL and other Jewish groups are are pushing, replacement of whites?

Unbelievable, Will, your thought.

Okay. So, first of all, It was four days in between when Musk posted this thing, and everybody was talking about it. At four days, but from that to this interview with Jake Tapper. And Ron DeSantis says he doesn’t know anything about it. Right?

It defies belief. And in fact, Jamie Raskin, the Democratic congressman was on CNN right after DeSantis. And he made this point. It’s like, it’s just not believable. So DeSantis is lying.

But the larger point here Ron DeSantis is looking for excuses.

We have another clip here. You know, what Jake Kapard doesn’t let it go. You know, he’s saying, look, you really didn’t see this. Let’s play the Tapper number two.

Elon Musk is a pretty powerful guy. And he’s out there endorsing, some pretty hideous, anti Semitic conspiracy theories, and I’m I still haven’t heard you condemn it.

Well, because I haven’t seen it, I know you tried to read. I have no idea what the context is. I know Elon Musk. I’ve never seen him do anything. I think he’s a he’s a guy that that that believes in America.

I’ve never seen him indulge in any of that. So it’s surprising if that’s true, but I have not seen it. So I don’t wanna sit there and pass judgment on the fly.

Okay. Well, I I I really wanna get your deep thoughts in this, but here’s here’s my not so deep thought on maybe it is the deep thought. Fuck that guy. I mean, seriously, the cowardice, the dishonesty, the the I’m going to keep my lips firmly attached Elon Musk’s you know, rear end. I mean, just a reminder that Ron DeSantis is so deeply online that he actually announced his candidacy for president with Elon Musk.

But, you know, what a, you know, bottom dwelling sluggy is on the ID and see it. I don’t know anything about it. I don’t follow the news. Poor Elon. Elon is a victim.

I mean, you kind of have Ron DeSantis, like, in a little nutshell there, don’t you?

Totally. So here’s DeSantis saying, oh, I don’t know about this. I haven’t read it. I haven’t seen the context. I’ve never seen Musk do anything bad.

Okay. Jake Tapper we just heard it. Jake Tapper has just literally read the tweet to him. He’s just read Here it is. Exactly.

Here it is. Yeah. You know, the Jews have it coming, but

You know? Yeah. And for those who didn’t see the interview, while Tapper’s talking, CNN is showing this on the screen. So DeSantis can look right at the text

right there.

And in case he can’t read, Tapper’s reading it for him. Right? And then after that, Ron DeSantis is saying, I haven’t seen this. I haven’t seen the context. Yeah.

So Obviously, the bottom line is Ron DeSantis does not want to criticize his openly racist, openly anti Semitic friend. And this is a symptom of a political party. A lot of people in the political party, and let’s put it that way.

Absolutely. We’re on to San Right.

But this is a symptom of a lot of Republicans just openly looking the other way at overt racism and anti Semitism. Yeah. Remember, Charlie, when and, like, decades ago, it was the left. It was the liberals who were, like, moral relativists who had no morals, no standards. That was the wrap on them.

We clearly have, on the right. A complete loss of any moral back up.

We did a podcast last week with, Peter Weiner, who made this point, which is rather extraordinary that you can go if I can read the closing of the American mind, what conservatives thought about moral relativism, you know, and right and wrong, and how that’s been completely upended. They have completely abandoned everything that was an absolute consensus belief not that long ago. Okay. So not to get too deeply into horse race, punditry here, but I feel we need to have a little bit of obligatory, punditry going into the Thanksgiving holiday.

Sure.

Now when you and I were on stage in Washington, DC, we had the, kind of, the lightning round asking, you know, what percentage possibility, does, Nikki Haley have to win the nomination? I kind of regret my answer because it was so absolutist. I said zero percent. I wanna walk that. But what did you say?

I can’t even remember, but it was more than zero.

I think you said one percent just because you wanna do, like, just be right on top of me there. So if she wins, you could say that you were right now is wrong.

It’s like, price is right. So I’m gonna take greater than zero. That puts me on the good side.

Okay. So I I feel a little bad about that because defeatism is not a great strategy. It’s not a great look. You know, I I understand that, you know, spare is a shtick for some people. I I try to avoid it, but I think it was Mona Charen who said, let’s acknowledge this is not the Republican party.

This is Trump’s party. But, of course, there always is the a meteor could hit Donald Trump and Haley is there. Haley is emerging. I mean, she is having a moment. Right?

She is moving up in the polls. The directional line is good. She’s overtaking Ron DeSantis in places like New Hampshire. The money people, as if they count anymore, are taking a good look at her. She’s done pretty well.

I think she stumbled a bit last week. Her thing about, you know, banning anonymous posting and stuff was like, what are you talking about? We really thought that through. Right? And, she’s been doing a little dancing on on abortion.

So I know that you’ve been following that. So, what what do you think about Nikki Haley? Is this Nikki Haley’s moment? And then I wanna get to the Nikki Haley on abortion?

Sure. Let’s talk about Haley in general for a minute. Yeah. Yeah. I’ve ragged on hale I’ve ragged on her more than you have.

I think Haley is a deeply cynical sing along. She’s a very cynical politician, and abortion is one of those examples. We’ll set that aside for a minute. Having said that, it is really important. First of all, we’re in agreement that the worst thing is Donald Trump getting elected.

Yes. We don’t even want Donald Trump to get nominated, but If Donald Trump, if the meteor does hit him, if he, you know, gets sent to jail or something and he’s out of the running, right, it is still important that the next person in line, the person who inherits the nomination, be one of the, I don’t know what to call them, better Republicans. Right? And I think in this race, we now have a pretty clear dividing line. The better Republicans are Chris Christie and Nikki Haley.

Chris Christie is substantially better than Nikki Haley, but going on. Yes. Yeah. So He definitely has zero chance. So Yeah.

Yeah. Probably. Okay. DeSantis and Ramaswamy are the dangerous. Candidates if it’s not Trump.

Right? They’re the isolationists. Right? They’re much more cynical. They’re more unhinged.

But the point is Haley’s momentum, and there is Haley’s momentum, is good. And there are several polls now in the early states that are showing it. As, you know, Tim Scott gets out, Mike Pence gets out, there is some consolidation going on. And it’s an open question, Charlie, whether having Chris Christie still in the race is actually helping Donald Trump in the sense that he’s depriving Haley of now I’m sure Chris Christie would say, hey, you guys should support me. Right?

He’s more of a bulwark guy. Right? I think everybody at the bulwark is really enjoying Chris Christie saying what he’s saying doing what he’s doing.

I am. Right.

We would prefer Christy to Haley. But I agree with you that Haley has a better shot.

Sure that the bulwark is always always on the same side on these issues. There are different flavors. Let’s say that. There’s the thirty six flavors of the Bulwark. But go on.

So I personally to speak for myself, I prefer Christy to Haley, but I think that Haley has a better shot. And it looks to me when I look at these polls that Haley could come she’s already come up some. She’s already consolidated some. And if Christie weren’t in the race, look at New Hampshire, for example, the last New Hampshire Ron DeSantis is out of the running in New Hampshire. He’s running fourth or fifth.

The last CNN poll that just came out, forty two trump, twenty for Haley, fourteen for Christie. You look at that fourteen, you say, If that fourteen went over to the twenty, that’s a forty two thirty four race. I think she needs to beat Trump in New Hampshire to have a shot And she could do it with Christie’s people.

Let’s understand how, political reporting goes. Everyone’s assuming that it’s gonna be Donald Trump. So the big story, if it’s forty two thirty four, would be an earthquake because, oh, my god. The story would be Nikki Haley. It would not be that Donald Trump won.

It would be that Nikki Haley did so well. There’s a long history of of this sort of, you know, second place. Right. So you’re right. That would be a big deal.

And, of course, that rolls into South Carolina where with Tim Scott out, I don’t know. She has a plausible, maybe if you squint. Okay. So talk to me about abortion because I was actually going to bring this up last week. Saying that Nikki Haley, almost alone among the Republicans has figured out how to sound like a reasonable person.

She understands how to frame the issue in a non threatening way. But then she got caught up in a where was it where she was asked, would you sign a six week band in South Carolina. She said, yes. So what’s the state of play there, Will? Because I know that this is your wheelhouse.

Yeah. So Haley is trying to play this double game right She’s trying to, tell pro choice people. She she knows a a lot of Bulwark that she uses to. And she she just talks about how it’s personal issue. We shouldn’t judge each other.

We shouldn’t divide the country. And her big message to pro choice people is, look, No pro life president. None of us, especially me. I can’t ban abortion because we don’t have sixty senators who who would do that. Right?

So even though I whatever my personal views are on the issue, what I’d like to do, I’m not a threat. So all you pro choice people can vote for me. But then she goes to these conservative Christian audiences, and she tells them what they wanna hear. And so Bob Vanderplatz, who’s the head of the family leader for him in Iowa says to her, you know, he had three candidates on Friday. DeSantis Haley and Ramaswamy.

He says I’m gonna ask each of you the toughest question I hear from my people, from the right, from the Christian right. And the question for Haley is You know, a lot of my people say you sound pro choice because they’re watching the debate. They’re watching what you and I are watching, and they see her saying this stuff.

Yeah.

And she’s She wants to reassure the Christian right. So she tells them, he says, would you sign a heartbeat bill? That’s a ban, and I’m on abortion at five to six weeks, like, before a lot of women know they’re pregnant. Mhmm. And she says, yes.

Without without a hesitation, she says, yes. She would do it. Cause she’s talking to that crowd, So this is obviously my complaint about Haley. She says different things to different people, or she emphasizes different things. And it’s dishonest.

The larger question is if you’re faced with a choice between a conventionally dishonest politician like Nikki Haley, but who supports funding Ukraine, who supports, you know, the rule of law in a lot of ways. Chris Christie would say no.

Right. Would

you rather have that than a DeSantis. And my answer is yes compared to DeSantis.

I think it’s a really easy choice. I’m struck by your saying, you know, that she’s dishonest there that, you know, a politician who says one thing to one group and something else to somebody else’s group, that just strikes me as politics. I mean, maybe I’ve just factored in the dishonesty. I mean, there was a a story over the weekend that Joe Biden is is sending completely different letters to pro Palestinian supporters than to pro Israel supporters So one letter emphasizes the support for Israel. The other letter very, very differently stresses a different point.

Is that dishonest or is that, like, Well, come on. It’s been going on for a long time here. Nah. You know, I am just not gonna get morally offended by that. I mean, I think it’s interesting.

I think it’s worth pointing out. I think it’s worth recognizing that there are different versions of this that Nikki Haley is gonna talk about contraception to one group. She’s not gonna mention it to another group. Okay. We can call bullshit off.

Hardly distinctive. Yeah.

Let me let me flag the contraception thing for one I so I agree with you. This is not as bad as, you know, trying to overthrow the government or anything like that. Good. So Nikki Haley has this list of Ron DeSantis abortion policies. Why?

Well, we can’t all agree about banning all abortions, but here’s what we can agree on. And she says things like what we can ban very late abortion. Okay? Everyone can agree on that. Or adoption.

We can all support adoption. One of the items on her list, normally, is we can make contraception more accessible. When she goes to the Christian right forums, this is like the fourth time I’ve seen her do it. She skips it. Charlie Sykes is so slick.

She is so smooth. You don’t even notice that she has taken it out.

You notice it. You you must have drawn it, see. But but,

like, I would like to think that in twenty twenty three, birth control, actual contraception, no zygote involved, and they’re like, is something that Americans can agree on, but, apparently I

am amazed that it’s out there. No. I mean, this is the thing that it’s sort of like This is why this era is so interesting is that so many and I’m I’m reading a book that it’s not gonna come out till next year about, the history of your liberalism. And what are the points he makes? And I think maybe he overstates it, but all of these things have always been there.

And they’re all under service. And so we have gone on blithely assuming, okay, you know, there’s an arc of history and it’s moving away from this. And we’ve refuted this position or This position is fringe, but it never went away. And it was always bubbling under the surface. And so We’ve gone on thinking that, okay.

We’re this multicultural society. We understand all of these things. We we understand that we are not gonna criminalize homosexual behavior. We understand that we are not gonna criminalize contraception. And like, whoa.

Suddenly, it breaks open, and it’s there. But it’s always been there. This is the thing. So it is disorienting.

The thing that really pisses me off about contraception thing in particular is that if you want to reduce the number of abortions in the world, the number one thing that will help you do that is contraception. That is by far the number one thing. So all of these pro lifers who are resistant to contraception or making contraception more accessible you’re you’re undermining your own cause, and you say that this is murder. They’re literally saving lives. Please, please follow through and support birth control.

You know, the and this was not even a debate, like, ten minutes ago. It feels like, okay. So since we’re we’re talking about the race, by the way, I get one of those you know, emails, you know, from the campaign, like, you know, here’s the state of play from the Christie people who are, like, like, making the case that it’s early as not over and all these things. So they’re they’re not going anywhere. I think the best case scenario at some point is that Chris Chris because I do think that what he’s doing is immensely important.

And I want him to do it up until the moment it becomes counterproductive. And when he drops out, I don’t think he should necessarily endorse Nikki Haley because I’m not sure that that’s gonna help her with some of the voters that she’s going to need. But I gotta say, I wanna repeat. I mean, I have given a lot of shit, Chris Christie. And I know all this stuff.

So don’t, you know, don’t give me the, you know, the emails and everything about, you know, that, well, he did this and bridgegate and all this. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. We know this. But he’s been a magnificent beast. In this campaign. And as you flagged for me, and I I had not seen this before, so I’m really appreciative of this.

He gave a foreign policy address at the quite right wing Hudson Institute. He’s addressing the people who are underplaying or lying about the menace that Donald Trump poses. What’s interesting is that this is a foreign policy address, but he ties in the domestic threat. Let’s just play let’s cut from Chris Christie.

If you lie fundamentally about the menace that Donald Trump is, then you have no credibility in describing the menace that Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping or Kim Jong Un or the rulers in Iran are. If you are unwilling to stand up to someone in your own country, in your own party. If you’re willing to call them the right president at the right time, If you’re willing to say that I’d be inclined to pardon him. If you’re willing to stand on a debate stage in front of millions of Americans and raise your hand and say, I’d support him even if he was a convicted felon. What credibility do you have to talk to the rest of the world about moral clarity.

Damn.

Chris Christie. Has been going through some things. But that is really remarkable. When you think about that he actually compares the menace of Donald Trump to the menace of the worst people in the world, and turns that around. It feels like Chris Christie’s own sense of moral clarity is sharpened as this campaign goes on.

That rather than having it the edge blunted by all the the shitties taken and the booing and and every everything that’s been thrown at him. He’s sharpening. He’s sharpening this sword. What do you think?

Yeah. And this point that he makes here is so fundamental. This was what Liz Cheney tried to tell us for two years. Right? Yeah.

So Liz Cheney is a hawk and what she articulated was authoritarianism abroad is reflected in this case by authoritarianism at home. And you cannot be a true hawk, someone who stands against dictators abroad, while you are coddling someone in your own country who is a wannabe dictator who is trying to take on the powers of a dictator in Donald Trump. A very basic point and Everyone is failing the test. And what I love here is that Chris Charlie Sykes stands up and he makes his point. He’s running in a Republican primary.

And he’s saying, we cannot ignore the authoritarian in our own midst. Right? When he says the quotes that he has there, fueling to raise your hand and say you’d support him if he’s a convicted felon. If you’re willing to say, was the right president at the right time, you know who Chris is talking about there. He’s talking about Nikki Haley Yeah.

I mean, others too. But Nikki Haley, she raised her hand and said she’d support Trump if you were convicted, and she always says He was the right president at the right time. So I love that Christie is standing up to that. Meanwhile, Charlie, at the same time that this is happening, Donald Trump, was speaking in Iowa, I think, on Saturday. And he praised all of these guys.

He always praises Victor Orban, the sort of authoritarian and Hungary. Putin, she came. Donald Trump said that she was I believe the phrase was strong like granite, I believe. I mean, he sounds like he’s doing communist propaganda, right, for Xi. He talked about how Trump had such a good relationship with Kim Jong Un, you know, and Kim respected him.

So Trump wants to be part of this club of autocrats, and Chris Christie is saying, he does wanna be part of that club of autocrats, and you Republicans who claim to stand against tyrants abroad are unwilling. You don’t even have the courage to stand to a tyrant in your own party.

Which brings us to the weekly poll that is causing a lot of bedwetting in the Democratic Party. And I think in this case, justifiably, this is this big NBC poll Biden’s standing its new lows amid Israel Hamas war. Young voters are breaking from Biden, helping give Trump a narrow lead for the very first time in the NBC News poll. The gap is within the margin of error, but you look at these approval ratings and they are horrific. This is, Mark Marie’s, right up President, Joe Biden’s approval rating has declined to the lowest level of his presidency, forty percent, as strong majorities of all voters, of all voters, Disapprove of his handling of foreign policy in the Israel Hamas war, what’s more?

The poll finds Biden behind former president Donald Trump for the first time in a hypothetical general election matchup. The erosion for Biden is most pronounced among Democrats, a majority of whom believe Israel is going too far in its military action in Gaza, and among voters eighteen to thirty four with a whopping seventy percent of them proving of Biden’s handling of the war. So, talk to me about this will because this is not just the same old same old. This would suggest that the Israel Hamas war is having a much more damaging effect on the Democrats, coalition than, I think Democrats had hoped. And I’m not sure how Joe Biden extracts himself from this.

So your thoughts about this poll, because we could have spent the whole podcast talking about all the ways in the last seven days that Donald Trump has reminded us how absolutely, unfit he is for office, how unqualified he is, how dangerous he is, We could talk about all of his criminal charges against him, but we wake up this morning with polls saying that he is right now the favorite to win the presidential election in twenty twenty four. Duh fuck.

Yeah. Right. Right. Okay. So the first thing I wanna say about this poll, I wanna talk about the young people in this poll because these are alarming numbers.

So in twenty twenty, voters eighteen to thirty four. And I’m I’m cribbing here from something that Steve Cornackie pointed out about about the NBC’s poll.

Mhmm.

So in twenty twenty, voters eighteen to thirty four went for Joe Biden by twenty six points. Right? He needs to have a big margin among them. In this poll, not only did he lose his margin? He lost his lead.

Trump was winning voters eighteen to thirty four by four points.

Now I’m still skeptical of that, but go on. Yeah.

Okay. Now the skepticism, I hear a lot, but Charlie, at a certain point, when we have one poll after another, after another. I know. So this then Obviously, we have to take it seriously.

It’s a high quality poll.

Yeah. So so I think we need to start taking this problem among among young people for Joe Biden seriously. But but Charlie, if this is about Israel and Hamas, that is the optimistic scenario because Joe Biden is not gonna get younger. But the Israel Hamas war is going to fade somewhat over the next year. It’s not gonna maintain this level of intensity and this level of coverage.

And the one thing I wanna flag in this poll about that, they asked about Biden’s handling of the Israel Hamas war. And among voters, eighteen to thirty four, it was unbelievable. Twenty percent approved of his handling, seventy percent disapproved. So that makes a strong case that a lot of this young people defecting from Biden in polls might be about that, about Israel.

Yes.

And if that’s true, as that issue fades away, they will come back to Biden, I think. So that’s the optimistic scenario for recovery.

Boy, that is the point. Okay. And what’s the realistic scenario? That there

you’d have to come up with some other reason why young people in particular are pre preferring Donald Trump. It could be the economy, but I don’t know why young people more than people on, say, older people on fixed incomes facing inflation, it would make more sense that they would be the ones more upset about the economy.

This is why I am becoming increasingly invested in negative see by which I mean. Look, I am not going to try to fluff up Joe Biden, but I’m gonna continue to say, yes. Whatever you think about Joe Biden Donald Trump is worse and much, much more dangerous. And we need to keep emphasizing that. What I’m concerned about, and and you would know this better than I would, is the fracturing the schism on the left seems very deep And I’m wondering how deep those scars are going to be.

So that the yes. You think they’re gonna come back because they won’t be thinking about it. But you might have. You can have Jill stein on on the ballot. You can have Cornell West on the ballot.

You might have the no labels on on the ballot. There are now more off ramps for squishy progressives by squishy I mean, pro biden progressives. And I I just wonder whether or not this has shattered what had looked like a much more coherent coalition, and that it’s gonna be hard for humpty Dumpty to pick up all the pieces. But I have that right? Or as humpty Dumpty was the pieces.

Right? So

To underscore your point about the other alternative candidates, I was just looking the other day at the the twenty sixteen and the twenty twenty election results. Donald Trump got forty six percent of the vote in twenty sixteen. He got little more, almost forty seven percent in twenty twenty. The difference was that in twenty twenty, Joe Biden got fifty one. He got the remainder with a little a few exceptions.

Hillary Clinton only got forty eight. It was the third party candidates. That two point margin is not enough to win the electoral college. So it was the consolidation behind Biden that prevented Trump from getting reelected. If they fracture again if people go to Cornell West and, you know, RfK junior and some of these other candidates.

And Biden only pulls forty eight or less. Then Trump gets elected. That’s the mathematical problem.

My optimistic scenario here is that we’re having this conversation in twenty twenty three, not in November of twenty twenty four. There are opportunities now to to adjust. I just don’t know that there are those opportunities. So the Washington posted a deep dive into all the attempts that the Biden team is having to reassure nervous Democrats who are I think justifiably nervous. There was some gathering of the of the elite in Aspen, and Ron Klain, the former chief of staff was speaking.

And And he basically said, look, Joe Biden is the nominee. There is no plan b, basically get over it. And so the crowd was, like, grumbling about this. But but this is the problem that Democrats have. There is no plan b.

And this is where I get stuck because I’m willing to say, okay. We really need to think about is there a better way of blocking Donald Trump? Because that is the priority. And and I get shit for this, but I I wanna just reiterate twenty twenty four is not about reelecting Joe Biden. It is about stopping Donald Trump.

If Joe Biden is not the best person to do it, you know, should we turn I just can’t come up with the answer. I don’t I don’t know what the plan b is. I don’t think they have a plan b, you know, and this this is why I I’m not I’m not joining, you know, and sort of, you know, the Bill Crystal parade of, like, yeah, he’s gotta go. You know, the David axelrod. Yeah.

He’s gotta go. Like, who? Who do you got in mind? Gretchen Whitmer is not just gonna pop up Jared Polis is not just gonna pop up. I’m not just gonna see some somebody emerge at the last minute here, I don’t think.

What do you think?

No. It’s very hard to get a consensus in a political party behind a candidate. You have an incumbent president. He’s actually done a good job. That’s not an easy thing to replicate.

You bring somebody else in. And to your point about what is the job in this election, stopping Trump or helping, but I am more pro Biden than you are, Charlie.

But Yeah.

I was realizing Joe Biden just turned eighty one. How much longer do I need him to live as an American citizen? And the answer is One year. One year. Like, it’s great if he serves out his term.

Oh, Jesus. This is helpful, but seriously,

I need this guy I am focused on stay alive and healthy and coherent long enough to win this election. After that, We can have Kamala Harris. We can have, well, whoever, you know, but it’s really about keeping Donald Trump out of office. And after that, It’s all gravy. Yeah.

See, I I

think that this is gonna be the Republican strategy. He’s gonna say, okay. You you think you’re voting for Joe Biden, but you’re gonna get Kamala Harris I have to tell you that and I and I know you come from this world. The the deep investment in denial. I mean, I am just watching, you know, all the folks On the Democratic side, say, we should just stop talking about Joe Biden’s age.

We should just not mention that you will should not mention that he’s eighty one years old because if we don’t mention it, it will go away. And we should stop talking about the economy because people are too stupid to understand the economy is great. So if we just keep telling them, know you’re stupid, that somehow that will go away as an issue. I just think that at a certain point, when you start, investing so much emotional and intellectual energy in pretending that reality doesn’t exist, then you’re in a bad place. Right.

Now I do think there’s answers to all these things. I mean, you know what my answer is with Joe Biden. Joe Biden, like, leaning to the old thing. I am old. I am so old that, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

But Donald Trump is also old and he’s crazy. I’m old. Okay. I get this. I am so old that, and then Bulwark in your your Joe Biden good line.

That doesn’t involve, you know, corn pop or something like that, you know. Right. And make sure you you get this right. Don’t let them go on, you know. But you have to emphasize the He’s old too, and he’s dangerous and make that the choice.

The problem is there’s some you and I are professional political pundits. Right? Because we have our licenses. Right? I’m trying to articulate this in a way that doesn’t sound completely, fuzzy, but in politics, there’s an it factor.

That people connect or they don’t connect. And Joe Biden, you and I could sit there and we could run through all of the accomplishments on the whiteboard. And yet somehow he’s not managed to connect with the American people. They don’t look

at him with a confidence. He won fifty one percent of the vote in twenty twenty. He connected. People like Joe Biden as a person, they think he sympathize with the middle class. They don’t think he’s a crazy lefty.

I mean, enough people. That’s not easy to replicate. I think he does connect. It’s just the age thing that’s really hurting him there.

Okay. So you wanna talk about twenty twenty. I would suggest Will that we talk about twenty twenty four. Yes. He did do those things in twenty twenty.

That was then this is now.

I am with you, Charlie, about reality. Right? Let’s be honest about Joe Biden’s age a real problem. Let’s be honest about the economy, inflation, real problems don’t try to deny these things. But there are a lot of other truths, and we’re going to be talking about them.

Yeah.

Yeah. The media is going to be talking about them. The public’s going to be talking about them for the next year. Truth like Donald Trump tried to overthrow the government of the United States. Donald Trump committed felonies.

Yes. These things are going to be exposed, prosecuted, tried, talked about for the next year. There are a lot of truths. And these are the reasons why you and I, you know, support Joe Biden against Donald Trump. And there why a lot of voters who right now are unhappy with Biden, unhappy with the economy can be persuaded to, and I think will be persuaded to vote for him against Trump.

So rest assured, we will talk about all

the facts. Yeah. But enthusiasm is an issue, and, you know, you’re just seeing I get the sense the right wing. And, I mean, the worst elements of the right wing. I mean, the abandoned, you know, Marjorie Taylor greens of the world, they feel the wind is at their back.

You saw that in the reaction to Argentina. And you’re seeing Democrats who are, dispirited and divided at least at the moment. This is temporary. And I understand that people are gonna hate this, but did you watch that it in that live? Yes.

They’re making fun of Joe Biden. Joe Biden is I mean, it’s like there’s a negative vibe out there that needs to be turned around. And I think the only way to turn it around and say, this is the menace that you face. America does not come back. You know, you may be tired of all this shit.

You may be concerned about all of this. But if you don’t just understand exactly the threat, the danger that is out there, you’re not coming back from this. So You can get all pissed off about Israel. You can get all pissed off about the price of eggs. And I’m not asking you to, you know, favor and, you know, and think that Joe Biden is the greatest president since Harry Truman, but do understand that Donald Trump represents the greatest danger that we’ve ever faced.

So, I mean, that’s where I’m coming down on them. Slightly difference in emphasis here.

Okay. I mean, as the pony guy, I would like to believe that voters can be motivated by positive things. Thirty five dollar insulin, the infrastructure in your red county that, you know, There are a lot of things that Joe Biden has done that are good for people that will help people. I would like to believe the election can be about that. But it is true.

That in the United States and in lots of other Western democracies, incumbents are in a bad place right now. The public is very unhappy, even if things are relatively good in these countries, It’s not exactly clear why, but it’s a general phenomenon. If the positive message doesn’t work, then the negative message is we already had Donald Trump as an incumbent president that was bad. We’re gonna tell that story to you. It’s worse than the incumbent story of Joe Biden.

Maybe that works.

I’m gonna make a variation of your that there’s a pony inside the pile of manure. Okay? Okay. I am saying that America is seeing the giant pile of manure there. And they’re saying, Man, there is a pile of shit.

What are we gonna do? And I wanna be able to tell them, yes, but inside that pile of shit, if you open it up and everything, you know what’s inside there? Not a pony. A demogorgon. And the demogorgon is much worse than anything you have.

So you think that the worst thing is the pile of shit. It is not the pile of shit. It’s the demogorgon inside of it if you make the wrong choice. You don’t watch, obviously, you’re not a fan of, stranger things. You would’ve got the

demo No. No. This is I’m learning

what this is. Okay. If you watch stranger things, the demo gorgon. I’m just that’s where I’m going on this. Yes.

Will thinks there’s a pony inside that. I think there’s a demogorgon inside the pile of manure. Alright. Let’s think about these things. As we eat our, thanksgiving meal, this would be a great week at least.

With everything that’s going on and as frustrating and exhausting as it is. I think that this year Thanksgiving comes at a good time. I think we really kinda need to step back and go. We have so much to be thankful for. There are so many things that are good in our lives.

And so maybe taking a few days off of, you know, Elon Musk’s health site, like looking around at your family and your friends and the fact that, hey, it’s beautiful fall. You know? Right. I have grandkids and children and dogs, and it’s life is good. Right?

So gratitude. It’s beautiful. We’ll be back to the pile of shit next Monday, though. But between now and then, have a great Thanksgiving, and everybody. I hope you just You too.

Spend some time thinking about what you are thankful for and kinda cling to that because I think that’s gonna be important going forward. Talk to you next week. Bohr contest is produced by Katie Cooper, and engineered and edited by Jason Brown.