Voters or the Courts? The Right to End Trump

Hello, everyone. Welcome to the next level. I’m JBL here with my best friends. Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. It is Christmas week or the week before Christmas Christmas week eve, maybe.

I don’t know. And we just got a, a little something that might be a present or might be a lump of coal from the state Supreme Court in Colorado. Colorado. I don’t know. Colorado.

You are Colorado’s own.

Color Colorado. Weird.

So you’re gonna really kick this off by showing that you can’t pronounce Colorado.

No. It’s true that, in in rural Colorado, there is a a faction that Prince is at Colorado. And it’s a little bit it’s a little bit right. It used to be conservative coded. And then all the everybody moved in from, you know, Missouri in Texas and California and that kind of that went away.

That’s the joke.

Maybe we should start soul show over again since

No. It’s good.

It’s good for people now.

Little fun facts. Colorado, Joan, any more Colorado fun facts.

Save them. We’re gonna get there. Yesterday, seven Democratic appointed Supreme Court justices ruled three in dissent for the majority. That due to the fourteenth amendment, Donald Trump cannot appear on the presidential ballot this year in the Sunshine State of Denver.

Take that drum.

I would like to hear your thoughts. I went and wrote a very svelte twenty five hundred words about this last night, which is currently burning up the internet. But I do not know I know a little bit about what you think, Tim, I wanna start with Sarah because I have no idea where Sarah is.

Not all of our listeners have have read your triad. Sarah did in the green room, but I skipped it.

Just now.

Maybe why don’t you summarize your argument? And so then Sarah can give the give the give her Well, this is the one. I suspect that she disagrees with So I’d like to I’d like to maybe hear you.

I don’t have an argument. Yeah.

He doesn’t make an argument. It’s My argument is

is kind of an argument.

I can see all of the sides of this both ways. We have we have three issues, essentially. We have a legal question, a political question, and then a deep philosophical question about what the law is for. And on all three of those, I can see both sides of this.

But you make a you you make a quasi argument at least that the Republicans who are complaining about this and who are saying that, oh, norms are being attacked, etcetera, etcetera, are a bunch of cry babies, and that maybe even though you can see both sides, Donald Trump should not get to subvert the law at his will, and then any time he’s tried to help people try to hold him accountable for the law, then they get to cry foul. You didn’t make that argument. That was a that was a pretty Yeah. Clear case that you made. I thought.

Well, and that and that is a that is a pure case about why the people who are the people who are most vehemently objecting to this are very, very bad people. They I mean, I mean, just to put it broadly, our friend of the show Keith Edwards, threaded out, tweeted out earlier today that it’s the same people who in twenty twenty wanted to overturn the world of voters who are now saying you have to let the will of voters be expressed. You can’t like, it’s it’s insane. But as I said, I’m just sort of both sizing it. And, I would like to hear where Sarah is.

Well, can I just so the I think we we suffer or perhaps are helped by the fact that nobody on this podcast is an attorney? And so I would say that one of the things that I don’t know is the legal Right? So so I would say the most decent faith argument I’ve seen from our friends on the anti anti side is that Trump has not been convicted get of an insurrection. And so for them to rule that he is off the ballot because he caused an insurrection without him being convicted of causing an insurrection. I don’t know enough about the law, but that makes, like, intuitive sense to me.

Just quick question. I do seem to have read very recently from one of our anti friends, national reviews, old, Andy McCarthy, that prosecuting Trump for criminal offenses is a terrible norm shattering idea what shouldn’t be done. So there is a little bit of a, hey, you can’t do this because he hasn’t been convicted of any criminal offenses. You can’t possibly try him for criminal offenses. Yeah.

It does seem circular.

It does. Although, I mean, I guess We could spend our time arguing with the bad faith of the anti anti crowd and god knows my I I That sounds good. That’s all of them though. I know.

I know.

I know. I know. But but I guess I’m trying what I am trying to do is take the arguments objectively on their merits and figure out exactly how I feel about it. Tim, go ahead, Tim.

I’m sick. I Will Saletan cut cut me off. I was gonna answer that question for you. I’m sick and I’m a bachelor this week. So I had nothing to do last night.

So I listened to several hours of law fair and our friend David Friend. So I’m gonna play a lawyer on this podcast

right now.

And if you want actual lawyers, you can go over to law fair. But, you know, the the people that wrote the initial brief about this, like, offered a definition of insurrection, right? Which was which I don’t have in front of me, but what is pretty plainly what Donald Trump did. And I think that when I was listening to French in particular, I had French made a compelling point, which was like, look at Jefferson David. Like, when the fourteenth note was written, to prevent people that attempted insurrection from holding office had Jefferson Davis come back in eight years and tried to run for president and had popular support in certain states I can I mean, I guess it would have been controversial among among the the nineteenth century Cletuses, but, like, it would not have been constitutional among legal minds that he could not run because literally that is what the third whatever of the fourteenth amendment is for?

Right? So I I think that, like, on the the merits, there’s a very defensible argument, and I think that it is worth making the case that to to JBL’s point about Andy McCarthy, I wanna take it one step further. I I I don’t think this is just talking about bad faith. I think it’s important to just walk through what happened. Like, they had a chance to convict him for this crime.

Right? And then they chose to have several people Mitch McConnell included on the senate floor said that they could not vote for conviction because he wasn’t president anymore. And because he wasn’t president anymore, then the courts needed to take care of this. Right? And then then when the courts start to care of it.

It’s like, oh, these politicized prosecutors are going after them. And then

Boy, it’d be much better just let the voters take care of it. And if the voters take care of it again, then we’re gonna have to go back to the courts because, you know

Right. So I have I have political concerns that we can talk about all those, but I just you know, and I and I don’t and obviously it’s not legally cut and dry based on the fact that a seven, you know, a seven member court all appointed by Democrats went four to three. Right.

Like And also because as you note, he was not convicted. Right? Like, you have not seen him be convicted anywhere, and and it they didn’t impeach him for it.

There’s a there’s a technical state law thing too, which is what the most of the descent seems to have been about, which is a again, is is more of a technical application of can the Colorado state law on this stuff supersede the constitution, etcetera, etcetera. So I think we can all just basically agree that from a legal perspective, both sides can make a case. Right? And that you could make this into a a judgment call. Right?

This is a legal judgment call. It is not like one side is saying the moon is green cheese, and the other side is saying it’s regolith. Right?

Yeah. And I guess I I’m saying that I don’t have a strong opinion on the legal side until I’ve I don’t know. I I’d have to do what Tim did. And listen, I tried to go read a few things. The opinion that they did is extremely long, so I couldn’t read that.

But staying on the legal case just for one minute, because Tim, I would put to you then. So what about the fact that the Supreme Court is likely to overturn, find the state, you know, outcome?

I mean, are we sure? I don’t know if the Supreme Court has surprised us a couple times recently. I mean, they, they weighed in on the side of the, you know, the civil rights case in Alabama where they said that the the Alabama redistricting was wrong, and they needed two majority minority districts because the, because of the voting rights act and a six three, trumpy Court, sided with the the people suing Alabama on that one. So I I will see. I probably probably the Supreme Court is talking aside with him since, again, a seven person Democratic Court went four three.

But, I mean, again, I just I think that if your argument is it this is gray. It’s a civil war era amendment and like it doesn’t explicitly even say the word president and the amendment. You know, I if your argument is that this is gray, okay, that’s fine. But again, I I guess I just I was most compelled by by David French showing to keep shouting out its argument that, like, Jefferson Davis wasn’t convicted of anything. Like, they did what JBL has been suggesting.

If I didn’t do about Trump, like, they they ended up, decided not to prosecute him, and, you know, in the spirit of, you know, trying to bring the country back together or whatever, after they didn’t prosecute him, had he come back in eighteen seventy two or whatever and said I was running for president? Like, I think it would have been unobjectionable that he was barred from it. So the question is, well, is the south uprising against the north? Like, is that different in nature in some way than Donald Trump’s insurrection? Like, I, you know, now we get, you know, into into, we’ll have a lot of constitutional law experts writing briefs about this.

Yeah. Okay. So let’s get on to the terrain that I feel good on because I don’t I I don’t know. I don’t have strong opinions on the legal side.

Can I

just put a bow on this one second before you move on Sarah Longwell think what what we are saying is if you trust the legal process, then you should be willing to accept this ruling from the Colorado Supreme court, as well as accept the ruling of the US Supreme Court should they overturn it. And I think I see a lot of that from our side. Like, the pro democracy forces today are basically like, yes. Well, this is the legal process playing out. And the anti anti trumpers are like, this is absolutely a legitimate and but if they get the the verdict they want from the federal supreme court, then it’s gonna be like, great.

Yes.

This is this is the real world. It’s like, we’re gonna sanction we would sanction other countries that did this. And it’s like, no. This is this is this is not the deep state. Like, this is not some autocracy.

It’s it’s one judge in one court. Like, we have a legal system. Now they get to appeal. Like, this has not been in a republic shit.

Okay. So can I just here’s my ultimate take then, which is that the rule of law arguments which I would make and the political argument that I would make are in fundamental tension? Right? They’re they’re they’re in fundamental tension and that this is what I struggle with about this, which is I believe that we should follow the law and do what’s right sort of outcome damned a little bit. Right?

Like, let right be done. Okay? And I think that legal part is a struggle because it’s like, well, what exact actually is right. Like, okay. And and I agree with JBL.

Like, I accept what Colorado ruled, and I will accept what the Supreme Court rules, and I can sort of see the arguments on either side of it. On the political side, and going back to the conversation about healing a nation, right, the soul of a nation, I just feel like it is so much better for America to if I think if if Trump is disqualified by the courts, I think where that leaves us as a country is in a very bad place, whereas I think if we beat Trump in twenty twenty four, it leaves the country in a much better place. And that I don’t want to beat him. This is just my personal opinion is I don’t want to beat him in the courts. I want to and people will say, but he might win.

And I’m not sure that that that, like, Uh-huh. I know he might win. I know he might win. But I also think that it says something about who we are deeply if after what trump did, the American people can look at it and say yes. And I think it’s on us and on Biden and everybody else to make sure Americans don’t make that choice to persuade them not to do it, and I don’t think that I just I think it’s like bad for the soul of the country.

Okay. I I take that argument, and I basically agree with it, but I wanna make the counterargument. For starters, if I’m ranking the outcomes that we have in front of us, you know, this is gonna be just for YouTube viewers here so you can see my hand way up here at the top, is we beat Donald Trump at the ballot box next year. Handily. Like down here towards the middle bottom, is is us disqualifying him because he was disqualified because he attempted an insurrection way down here underneath the earth.

Is Donald Trump becoming the president again after he tried to, you know, overturn the results of an election after we had our first non peaceful transfer of power since the civil war. So, like, again, I agree with you. It’s not the ideal outcome, but if the if the rulings are such and the fourteenth amendment is clear enough and and Republican Supreme Court says so. Okay. I’m I’m kinda down to clown on that and I also will just say I like I I refused and I know that this is like going into your bad faith argument or whatever, but I I just it it bears saying that the the only reason that we have Donald Trump at all and that we’re dealing with this all is because he got famous trying to disqualify the first Bulwark president from being able to run.

There’s being but from birther because he’s a birther, because he’s a racist birther. Like, that’s the only reason we are even here at all. Like, Donald Trump not glommed on to birtherism. You know, Ted Cruz probably would have been the nominee last in twenty sixteen, and we’re on a a totally earth too, and and I, you know, who the hell knows? What would happen then?

I’m sure we’d have other problems. But, but, like, I I just I refuse to be lectured to, okay, about this, about about abiding by what a single Supreme Court says. From people that are running cover from somebody whose entire political identity is based on a racist attempt to disqualify the first black president from office based on the lie. K. Brockmon was born in Hawaii.

Donald Trump did try in its direction. So, like, as far as I if I’m like ranking, which is more foul of our norms, I would say that the Donald Trump behavior is much more foul. I I I understand everything that you’re saying, Sarah. I just I’m making I I feel like that needs to be said.

Yeah. I wanna put a point on what you what you said, Sarah, about the the fundamental tension here because the tension this is why, like, I’ve been banging this drum since, like, October of twenty twenty when I started saying, Trump is gonna be that Trump is gonna lose this time, and he’s gonna be the nominee next time. We are heading to a place where we get a crisis either way. Yeah. Because if the rule of law chooses to not attempt to hold Trump accountable because it thinks that the political outcome of that is to make Trump’s election more likely.

Then that itself creates a crisis because, well, now this guy has the ability to break the law with impunity. And anybody who comes after this has no downside for attempting an insurrection of their own. Right? But yet, you, you know, like, I don’t know. The polling is pretty clear.

After Trump gets indicted for the first time, his numbers in the Republican poll, shoot up. Right? So so maybe that did help him. Yeah. In fact, it it clearly did help him.

Now maybe he would have won even without that help. I don’t know. But this is a you know, we have two doors in front of us and behind one of them is a tiger and behind the other one is an alligator. And it’s really It’s not great. And the the reason we’re in I think I could take it out again.

The reason we’re in front of these doors is because Republican elites, like Paul Ryan until till last week where you said the right thing, but a whole bunch of Republican elites all the way, every time they were offered an opportunity to hold Trump accountable, when the system was trying to hold Trump accountable, they short circuited it. And they prevented accountability from happening because they assumed somebody else would take care of the problem for them, and so they wouldn’t have to incur any political pain. They wanted all the power and all the political advantage without having to endure any pain. And that’s why we’re in this place.

Hundred percent.

It’s not the fault of of Democrats. It’s not the fault of the courts. It’s not the fault of anybody else, really. It really is the institutional Republican Party.

This is totally the fault of the Republican elites. That doesn’t change the fact that, like, I’m gonna struggle this whole time. With the fact that we are boxed into this place. So, like, here’s another example. I’m just gonna warn you guys now that as we get into as we get is trump’s the nominee because everybody who’s arguing that somehow these court cases are gonna happen in the primary timeline, I just think they’re wrong.

I don’t think we’re gonna get a conviction on Trump. But we may get convictions on him during the election. And even there, like, I’m gonna start to get really nervous about the idea of prosecuting the nominee for the Republican for for president. Like, he’s chosen by his party. And I under like, I you can argue the politics of it.

You can argue the accountability of it. You are shattering norms either way. You are shattering them either way. You are either. Either one presents a constitutional crisis.

And that’s why it is very difficult for me to come down hard on one of these sides because I just will feel sort of sick to my stomach at the idea of a the presidential nominee, like, getting prosecuted in the middle of the election.

You guys don’t wanna hear this, but there is only one way out of this. That preserves all of the norms. It’s the pardon. It’s Biden just coming out and saying, you know what? We gotta put all this behind us.

We had a pardon. This is literally what the as Alexander had But

at what point did you have a pardon

before the election?

Before the election?

Maybe has to. I’m just talking out loud here. I’m not wedded to this idea, but I am saying that one way, you know, you may decide that the pardon itself becomes worse than the cure. Right? The the the the cure is worse than the disease, and I’m I’m open to that possibility.

But one way to preserve both the law has to hold people who try these things accountable, and we don’t wanna be in a place where we’re prosecuting, a of criminal prosecution of a candidate from a major party in the middle of election, the one way to hold both of those norms up is for Biden to pardon them.

We can think about maybe some some other solutions are around. We can keep thinking. We can keep brainstorming. I got

one in mind that I’m not gonna stay. On the podcast, but I’ve been thinking about one. And, yeah, I don’t I get it. I I I so the pardon, I guess, I think a ridiculous suggestion. He’s never gonna do it, but, but, like, it it speaks to this.

I understand your low your basic low information voter, like, looks at this and was like, Oh, you’re for democracy. You know, like, we’re gonna ban it for that. It seems preposterous. We’re

high information anti anti anti.

Yeah. Right? Like, everybody, like, it seems preposterous. You know, it does. Because, like, really what we’re saying right now, and this is his favorite Sarah Longwell, like, we’re we’re we want to protect liberal democracy.

Right? Like, we want which which is encompassing of, you know, the rule of law and and and of the other elements. Right? So I don’t think that there’s a good answer to it.

Mean, look, here’s here’s the truth. If every person who is part of the institutional version of the Republican Party, the Ron DeSantis, the Nikki Hale Throna Mc Daniels, the the Senate Republicans, Mitch McConnell, if they all came out today and just said, we can’t have this guy as a nominee. This is a serious case, and I’m not gonna pre judge it. We’re gonna see what the Supreme Court says, but this is and this one hammer and tongs at Trump. Then they might blow up the Republican Party for a cycle, but they would prevent Trump from becoming president.

And I know it’s Westwing Fantasy politics expect Nikki Haley to do something that would help her her chances of becoming president. But

Did you see Vivic Ramaswamy came out and he said he is he is withdrawing from the the slate in Colorado and demanding He’s demanding that Nikki Haley and Chris Christie and Ron DeSantis do the same. And I gotta tell you to if we get into just, like, rank politics for a second, one of the things that is just, like, obviously, I have been analytically. I am with everybody who says Nikki Haley can’t do it, spiritually, I’ve been like rooting for her and looking for this, you know, my mind goes to all these places about like how How could it Bulwark? You know, and I I argued with Wade about this on the Focus Secret Podcast, but I still find myself really rooting for her. Her moment is over now.

Yep.

It’s over unless she seizes on it in some way.

It’s self interest.

And and and the chances that they all spend their time now just as they’ve done previous. I I may they could prove me wrong. But if I had to guess, I would say they all spend their time Saber rattling along with Vivic about how terrible this is and ultimately just helps Trump and Rob’s Nikki of the little momentum she’s had.

While also privately hoping that the Supreme Court upholds the color. Totally. Right. So that’s the other the the other the other turn of this is that they will publicly talk about how good while, you know, being on their knees with their rosary beads every night, praying that gorsuch and Roberts decide to uphold the call.

And this is the problem with all that’s just my last point on this is these are, like, we’re in the hands of the worst people. Right? Like, everybody, like, there is no good option for the pro democracy side of this as we’ve been hanging out. Like, there is a clear option for Nikki Haley. Like, Nikki Haley going guns blazing at Donald Trump and saying, we cannot support somebody that backed an insurrection, we can’t have that party.

And if we do, I’m gonna support Joe Biden. Like, obviously, she’s not gonna do that. But, like, our fate is in the hands of the worst people. Had had had had twenty of the worst enablers all just united and said no to this or had ten more senators, you know, then we wouldn’t be here. But we are, and they are the reason why we’re left in this situation.

Well, the good news is they’re doing it for a guy who’s not trying to make it harder for them. We have after the week have I think Verman was last week. Maybe it was two weeks ago that Donald Trump called, his opponents Democrats and and liberals Verman. And now his warning Steve

Bannon updated that. I called Robert Kagan Verman at TPOSA in order to do TPC later, but that was very subtle. I thought. A very subtle. So

now, Trump is saying that immigrants are poisoning the blood of America. And when asked, boy, that sounds like something from Hitler’s mein Kampf instead of saying, No. That’s ridiculous. He said, well, I’ve never read mein kampf, which is like the this is it’s literally what he did when he was asked like disavow the Proud Boys or disavow David Duke. Right?

His his response is not Of course, I just about David Duke. It’s like, well, I don’t know anything about David Duke. Never met the guy. Don’t don’t know anything about him.

Someone on our Reddit was mad being Bill talked to this briefly last night on YouTube and I was like, well, well, there was that story about how he had Hitler’s speeches by his bed. And it’s kinda like, I I get, okay. I I don’t know whether he’s lying about this or not. If you’re just looking at me, I’m gonna always on the side of Donald Trump not reading.

Not reading a book. I was gonna say

reading a book.

Having the speeches. You know, to kind of, to wave around at people and trigger them. Like, that feels like Donald Trump reading something from a different era, is a no for me. Yeah. So I I agree with him.

He probably has not read mein Kampf, which he really act which he really spoke with a very German accent. He could because he was like, my cop.

No. This is how this is how this Bulwark, guys. Donald Trump’s never he reads no books. He didn’t write his own book. He doesn’t read his own book.

You know who read mein Kampf? I’m quite certain. Steven Miller. Stephen Miller. Who routinely probably just says to Trump over Coca Cola’s or diet coca colas or whatever he drinks.

These immigrants are poisoning the blood of our country, and it’s just the kind of thing then that Trump says out loud. He didn’t read anything about it. He has the worst people in his ears all the time giving him these lines that now come to him naturally.

And he’s found that the they’re big applause lines.

Oh, they’re huge applause lines. Right. And then the same thing that we just went through for seven years because we we hit, like, fucking time is a flat circle. It’s like he does it the first time, and then JD Vance at all. I was like, well, I I think he’s talking about fentanyl, obviously.

He’s talking about fentanyl and how how that’s poisoning our blood. And then, like, Trump goes back up there and does a speech last night where he’s like, I no. He’s like, people are mad at me. They’re saying I’m Hitler saying poison the blood, but no. He’s like, I mean it.

He’s like, they’re poisoning the blood. They’re bringing in diseases. Like, what they’re doing is poisoning our people. And it’s like, I’m not talking about fentanyl. I’m talking about they’re literally poisoning our blood.

It’s like, okay. You guys

know what’s so weird. Like, you just forget he is married to an immigrant that he had a child with.

Yeah.

Who is the product of Uh-huh.

A blonde child.

Okay. But still, I’m sorry. The Trump’s deep jeans are so dominant.

Very tall blonde child.

Whatever. This guy He’s just the worst.

He’s not talking about European immigrants, Sarah.

Yeah. Not the ones who become models.

Yeah. No.

Just the ones fleeing gang violence, from Mexico, which look at whatever. I’m not gonna get into an immigration thing. He’s a terrible person, and we should be able to beat him.

Well, we

should be able to beat him if the American people are serious people.

Wait. Tim, have you talked about the TP USA thing much?

We’re gonna get to it.

Oh, we’re gonna get to it as well. We’re gonna

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We’ll get to to TP USA in a second. New York Times has a poll which shows Biden ahead of Trump. Among likely voters, among all voters, including people who didn’t vote in twenty twenty, he’s losing the Trump. I mean, it’s hard for me to think that the people who didn’t turn out for the highest turnout election in American history where we had, like, the easiest possible voting because of all the pandemic protocols put in that those people are gonna turn out in big numbers this time. That’s hard for me to imagine.

Maybe it will. Maybe it will turn out that way. So I saw this times poll as encouraging news for Biden. Thoughts?

Same. I feel like I was on a I need the shirt maybe for twenty twenty four because that was like a big week for Tim being always right. Just like the Never back down super pack, totally collapsing, and crashing and burning, and being completely worthless.

Let’s do that. Let’s do that on top of GPU USA.

Okay. We’ll add that after. So I had that, you know, that I’ve been writing about for a while. Out how worthless that Super PAC is, how they’re burning their money on fire. Somebody I said there’s a puck story about how some new donors pen putting ten million into Nikki Haley.

And I was like, why won’t one of these people call me. I want to save you money, rich people. I wanna save you money. Okay. Anyway, this poll on the Tim is always right.

The the flip I don’t think that it’s really it is not sunk in with our democracy friends, our pro democracy friends, and the nonprofit activism space, some of whom listen to this podcast. So I’m just trying to help it sink in, that we have had a switch in the electorate. In addition to the red dog switch for the working class voters as part of that switch, we now have a situation where the the least likely to turn out people are hostile to Democrats. And the most likely to turn out people are the core of the democratic base. This was not true when I was growing up early in politics, you know.

And so for a while, like, that’s part of the reason why the Like, well, part of the reason that why Republicans have a reputation for voter suppression is because they’ve tried voter suppression a lot, particularly in the cities. But another reason is just that there was a general sense in Republican campaigns. It was kind of like, we wanted turnout to be down. You know, more people was bad. Right?

That’s not true. That’s not true in twenty twenty four. We kinda want turnout to be down. And and I thought that the Joe Biden number of of being better. This I thought this was the most encouraging thing.

Among twenty twenty voters, The result was better than twenty twenty. He had gained two points. Again, there’s margin of error, so that’s that’s kind of noisy, but still, I thought that’s telling. And I think that a lot of these polls, right now, that are using a registered voter screen are are causing a little bit of unnecessary panic. So I’m not I’m not sanguine.

I’m not like, oh, this is not a, what’s a Gahopium sub stack. God love you. I mean, it’s it’s, but it’s just I was encouraged by that because I concur with you JVL that I think that, like, looking at that likely voters screen in the biggest turnout election in history, that’s that’s a good sign for buying.

And I think that, like, the polling right now, again, saying something that people may not love, but the the numbers with young people, like, it feels like temper tantrum. Like, we’re in the middle of a temper tantrum that people are having over Joe Biden being the nominee, Joe Biden’s position on Israel, and, like, have your temper tantrum. My teams have been looking at a bunch of the numbers from twenty twenty as we think about, our twenty twenty four campaigns. And there’s a bunch of interesting stuff where, actually, white voters over sixty five, who you think of as being pretty trumpy are actually the ones who have been moving more in Joe Biden’s direction. Now why is that?

Because a lot of those over sixty five voters are people who remember Reagan’s Republican Party and do not identify with Trump’s Republican Party. And so there is move That’s right. That’s right. They remember when when, Russia was our enemy. And so so those people are actually moving and those people vote absolutely reliably.

Whereas a lot of these young voters who are pro who are having temper tantrums are not the most reliable voters. And so, you know, I don’t I don’t think we have to, like, get too high on the Hopium one way or the other or even interpret the two percentage points. I do think, like, it’s the reason that Democrats have been winning these off year elections. Right? Is because these voters are reliable in off year elections.

And so it is worth keeping this in mind that the Democrats have traded up in some regard by getting more reliable voters out of these kinda like bread dog types and that’s good for them.

The most fascinating outtakes in this New York Times poll, Nate Con is good at asking, like, nerd questions deep down that that, like, scratch my nerd itch. So he asked people, for their vote, who voted? Did you vote in the twenty fourteen election? Now, obviously, there’s gonna be some self identifying issues here, but it’s it’s still the trend is kind of interesting. Among the people that said that they voted in twenty fifth team.

The party registration was r plus five, but the twenty twenty four vote was Biden plus ten. Like, that is that is your red dogs. Like, that is a fifteen point switch of people that voted republic that were Republicans in twenty fourteen that have widened in twenty in twenty four. Now, on the flip side, didn’t vote in twenty fourteen. These are unreliable voters we’re talking about.

D plus ten in their party registration. Trump plus eight in their expected vote for next time. These are your union guys that never voted. Life style. Yeah.

Life style voters. Your lifestyle voters. I mean, that I just thought that was Like, if you wanted just a one step that was like realignment in one step, I I I thought it was very kind of telling, and and that folks are, like, still a little like, they understand that the realignment is happening, like, the degree to which it’s happened, you know, at eighteen point and fifteen point swing. I think it hasn’t sunk in for a lot of folks.

And this is where it’s easy to think. Well, look, there’s a lot more white working class voters who vote on, like, the gays are getting married and I don’t like it. And the college educated suburban voters are a smaller percentage. But and so you’re like, oh, it feels like, you know, Dems are losing on that trade. But the reason that it’s a good trade and they’re trading up is that those voters are more reliable will show up.

And those people who only really get motivated by, like, the

My dumb.

Yeah. Right. Whatever. You know, but here’s the the but then on the down on the downside is that this is where when Trump is actually on the ballot, you just worry about the turnout equation because they show up for trump. Like, and the question of persuasion and pushing this realignment focusing for persuasion on, you know, a lot of these sort of white suburban voters.

That’s that’s important, but it’s gonna come down to turn out and how much tr people are motivated by Trump. And I and what do you guys make of the youth numbers? So not just the part that we’ve been talking about, in terms of the sort of temper tantrum progressives being mad at Biden. But the actual fact that Trump is doing much better with young people, and I think there’s a number of people who’ve tried to who have explained, and we’ve talked about this before because it came through loud and clear when we’ve been doing the focus groups with the young people, which is Trump is the only like, for the last ten years, he’s been so the dominant politician that they don’t see him as a political aberration the way that we do, like so outside the norms and mainstream. And so you can see why he might act and also speaking of bad traits, like Republicans got all the these like bar stool sports young guys too.

But what did you make of that?

Let me ask you guys to clarify something for me that I don’t fully understand. So trump does better among young Republicans than he does older Republicans. This is we saw this in the primary. Ron DeSantis edge was an old old Republicans, early in the primary when he was doing well. And Trump’s big support was, like, the youth.

The youth liked him. That is true intra Republican party, but when you zoom all the way out and just look at the youth vote as a whole, Like under thirty voters are trending more democratic than they had been previously. Correct? It’s just that Republicans under thirty are more trumpy, but as a whole that’s share the pie, like people who are under thirty who identifies Republicans is shrinking. Correct or a do I have that wrong?

Well, you had it right up until twenty twenty. I mean, like, we’ll see in twenty twenty four if that’s true. But that was true up till twenty twenty. I think if you look at the horror at the youth poll, you know, the the that’s just the eighteen to twenty nine year olds rather than like taking out these fucking subsamples. And, Like, again, it was the same story as these other places.

Like, the the people that were absolutely gonna vote, like basically we’re at the Spiden’s level from last time. Like it was within the margin of error. And then among people that weren’t sure if they were vote or not, it was like a coin flip. Right? I mean, so I get the mo the casual independence, you know, not aligned as a party type young folks.

Our Trump appealing and I also think you have horseshoe theory happening. Oh. And I think that there’s a lot of people that trump’s anti war. Right? And so the people that are the most mad at Biden are the most lefty.

And I think that they have some I can internalize some notion that Trump is in America first. He’s anti war and this is why I think a big challenge for twenty twenty four for Biden, etcetera, is like invading TikTok with mein’ comp videos. Right? Like, these kids have to understand, like, where about, you know, what what what where Trump really is?

Well, these kids have correctly intuitive that Joe Biden is Ronald Reagan’s third term. And that’s what they don’t like about him. So speaking of the youths, Tim, you, for your sins, went to Arizona, to T. P. USA, to see the youth, the conservative youths.

And I have so many questions for you. But I wanna start with r d and tiny d energy. Where the the TPU USA youth who two years ago were okay with DeSantis. Right? They liked him.

They they didn’t love him as much as they loved. Trump, but they were okay with him. Was there any, like, has he been unperson? Unperson. Because he just The primary Like, he doesn’t even exist.

The primary was not happening. Phoenix.

That’s amazing.

It was not happening. There were fourteen thousand. They had sold they had sold fourteen thousand tickets. It was an eight thousand person arena that was never completely full So I, you know, but then people are walking in and outside. Let’s just say ten thousand showed up.

Guy told me about a third of them are young. So let’s just call it about three, four thousand young people. And totally unpersoned. Like, not not I I stopped asking. Like, because my first set of questions that I asked the kids when I go up to them are, like, what are the issues that, get you excited about why are you here?

What are the issues when you talk about that? And and where are you in primary, are you Trump or DeSantis or Vivek or Nikki? I stopped asking that after day one because everybody’s kind of like trump. And I and I the kid and I get kind of self selected by kids who know not my party. Right?

So the kids who know not my party will come up to me, and they’re they’re the not the kids that, like, were yelling the n word. At that guy in that viral video that went around. Right? Like, they they are kinda, like, the kids that come up to me are Trump. They’re the scrum yeah.

They’re like squid the squishy of the August. Right? Like, there’s a little bit of a selection bias there. And so I saw a couple from last year, right, because I went last year. And, you know, that we’re that were, you know, leaning to Santa’s or or even, you know, leaning somewhere else.

And, you know, the answer I always got was, well, the campaign’s over. It doesn’t matter. Why might I just want, we’re just on board with Trump work it. Like DeSantis has been terrible. He’s run a terrible campaign.

So the campaign was over in Phoenix. Like, I there was barely even mention the the v the straw poll is about the VP. The straw poll is about who Trump should pick for VP. Not not the primary. Tucker, handling, and then Vivek was second.

I forgot who finished in third.

So, was there any any Jeffrow crowing? Was anybody was anybody gloating over? Or is it was it as if DeSantis literally didn’t even exist.

Yeah. I mean, again, like a lot of these people I don’t think hated to San as it was the people from Sarah’s early focus Right? Like, they liked what to see, you know, to say to send to the migrants to Massachusetts and stuff that they just thought the campaign was really there was some crowing event just like how the campaign wasn’t how bad it was. But, like, like, from the stage, people weren’t making fun of DeSantis really. I mean, Gates, you know, who I who I wrote about, you know, said kind of, I’m just I’m ready for all the disabled people to come back and start being nice again.

You know, and so it’s like a little bit of crowing. Right? But it was more like it’s so over. I’m I’m I’m

gonna need to know. Right? They hate Nikki.

Oh my god. So when Bannon on stage, says that the the corporate establishment, Fox News, Paul Ryan Ron, Ronne, Ronne, McDaniel, Like, what they’re doing right now with this Nikki momentum is they don’t think that she can win, but they’re trying to set her up to be the VP. And they’re that’s what they’re gonna try to do. And this place, goes insane. Like, rabid booing all around me.

And then there then they began a tucker chant, which then moved into a fucker chant. Which then there were a few. And then and then Bannon is going. She’s demonic. She’s demonic.

She’s evil. And then, and then some people around me started yelling lock her up. It’s not

that she’s gonna endorse Trump when this is all over.

Have you guys seen the video of her being asked about being Trump’s VP? No. Like yeah. So she is dodging it. She kinda does, like, I find it offensive.

I’m not playing for second. Like, she’s got a line about it. I don’t play for second. But she does not rule it out. And DeSantis has, and I think as long as she’s keeping that door open, and Trump Like, if Trump’s smart, what does he do?

He keeps that door open because then she doesn’t go hard at him. And also, I don’t know if you guys saw, so Trump’s got his first, the Trump campaign has their first attack ad on Nikki. And it is the softest, most milk toast, most normal. It’s about Nikki flip flopping on the gas tax. It’s no like putting fingers Ron and is such a weirdo.

It’s just like, you can’t trust Nikki Haley because she flip flopped on the gas tax. Here’s a clip of her saying she won’t raise it. Here’s a clip of saying we’re raising it. And you think it’s so normal politics that you go, like, that is not a real attack. Like a head fake attack.

So anyway, I am, the idea that he holds that out, I don’t think he picks her,

but I

think he holds it out. I think she holds her fire. And, that’s where we are.

Yeah. I think we’re in a Romney situation. They go to have dinner. Yeah. People take a picture.

You know?

Trump loves how to play these people.

Yeah. He makes her grovel. And then

He can smell weakness.

Yeah. No. I mean, when they have the locker up showing, kind of like I I just I I don’t, you know, we talked with that David Grand on the podcast about how the big deal was became couldn’t pick lieberman in o eight because of, like, they can’t pick Nikki. They can’t pick pick.

But Tulsa, trump wouldn’t want to. Yeah. Because he knows he can’t trust her. Yeah.

He can’t have pants two point o. Can’t trust her.

Real quick before we move on from this, Ted Cruz. He did this weird thing. He’s really committed to his his old middle aged man mullet, and he’s gotten tubby again. And He’s up there like a sort of cleatest version of Matt Fully talking about liberal men can’t satisfy their women. And I just

man.

His line. So his line was actually these liberal women are so pissed off. They’re just so but you would be pissed off too if you had to have sex with those weenies, like these weenie liberal guys. The thought when whenever Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz

certainly isn’t a weenie.

Yeah. Whatever Ted Cruz says anything that, like, connects him talking and, like, thoughts of sex. Like, the what the lesbian gear in me goes so high. They’re like, oh, I’m so glad I don’t have to, like, he’s so repulsive and revolting. I I don’t understand how women can look at Ted Cruz and think, I want I enjoy that species.

Nothing says masculine, like, letting, the guy that just beat you in a campaign and sought your wife’s looks. Like, that’s that’s really an alpha male move I’ll tell you that.

And then and then you endorse them.

Yeah. I’ll tell you this. The, that this thing though was endemic throughout the speakers. It was not just Ted. Like, one of the key themes with these guys now is this machismo, you know, like, we need strong men and they’re gonna have a wife.

Like, the strong man obey god and the wife obeys the man, and they’re gonna have a family and, like, know, Jason Whitlock was on stage talking about how he wants to go back to priest’s suffrage with the family just has a vote, one vote per family. And there’s a lot of insulting of single women, cat ladies, you know, there is a lot of insulting of gays. Obviously, just jokes jokes about gays, like, their expense, weenie boys, checks with dicks, a lot of trans jokes. And so Like, it it it is that there’s there’s there’s something that is absolutely inseparable from the Maga thing. That I just that is this machismo element to it.

You know? And and when, like, when you’re talking to them, like, the the kids. Like, I do think that there just is some reaction that’s happening. I mean, some of this is, like, tailed time, patriarchy, but there’s also some reaction that’s happening. Like, that where they feel like, you know, the the straight white man is being, you know, is being insulted and like this and and that the culture and that they’re being minimized in the culture and they’ve gotta take the culture back.

And they’ve got to demean these other people. And that that is very central to this. And like when you’re when and when you talk to them, it’s it’s very noticeable. It’s not like a one auto attendant. Ted Cruises thing was not a one it was a very common theme.

Nobody else was talking about pleasuring women. You know, I don’t I don’t remember any other orgasm talk, but, but the theme was constant.

So United States Senator.

Yeah. I know.

So Yeah.

Boyd as he hate it. Yeah. Tim, did you run into any of your, like, twinks for Maga who were your do do you remember those those kids?

The gays against rumors. I did. I did.

Yeah. The gays against rumors.

The gays against Cruisers has lost a little momentum.

Because of the Santa’s probably. Right? Because that’s really his thing.

Has lost some momentum. And I think also because it’s starting to get a little real. The gays against gr like, the amount of anti, the anti gay talk is really ramping up. Like, the gays against groomer’s thing was all part of like, weet the Maga likes gays. Right?

But it’s just we just don’t like these teachers grooming our kids, and now those more of, you know, like, like, many speakers made jokes at gay people’s expense And so they’re they’re still gays there. But I I do I don’t know. I didn’t see people with the gays against grubber shirts. I will tell you. When, as I said, my the question I ask every kid is, like, what are the issues that animate you?

Immigration is one of them. Grooming is another one. Like, for one example, a kid said, we’re going I was going down the line of these bros. And I was like, alright, top issue. It’s like immigration immigration, school reform immigration.

And I was like, oh, I wanna come back to you school reform, guys. So, like, school choice? Or what are you talking about? He’s like, no. I’m talking about the grooming.

And I was like, oh, right. Right. Got it. That’s what that’s what score form is for that. That’s what education reform is for these guys, stopping the tee stopping the, the penguin, the gay penguin books.

And then, and then it’s anti war. Those are the type of immigration and no foreign entanglements. And then the guy the TPSA guy sent me the poll afterwards and it’s funny. It’s like the Israel is fifty fifty. Strapple, the head tucker winning, Israel is fifty fifty.

Should we support Israel in the crowd, Ukraine was two two ninety eight. And so to me, like, I just I think that the Israel number is, like, That’s moving. That’s that’ll that’ll settle in around twenty percent. I mean, there’ll be some, you know, vestigial Jewish folks, like, and then evangelicals who kind of like think that Jesus is gonna come back to Jerusalem or whatever, but I I think the Israel number is gonna start going down.

But Trump has gotten to have that one both ways.

I know.

I mean, this is the the the Trump Israel Hamas thing is really interesting in that he, you know, his numbers on, like, you know, do you think Trump would handle the Israel situation very high. He’s, like, over sixty percent. And in despite that, like, he’s dancing in the middle on that.

But what they mean, what they mean is, so I hear this all the time. People think you’re not like, we’re like, well, Trump is a lunatic and everyone’s like, yeah. And he’s so unpredictable, and that’s why these foreign leaders, like, we They won’t even test us. They won’t have wars with each other. The reason the wars are happening is because Biden’s weak and everyone knows America won’t do anything but Trump’s so strong that these wars wouldn’t even happen.

You know, Putin wouldn’t have invaded Ukraine if Trump was here. Like, none of the Israel stuff would be happening. Like, that’s what they believe. They believe that Trump’s unpredictability is his asset on foreign policy and will keep a keep wars from happening.

I do not understand how the could possibly apply to the situation with Hamas and Israel. If that’s okay. Alright. This is we’re running super long. So let’s very quickly.

We’re gonna try something new. Wait.

Come on. I’m sorry. I wanna go along. There’s so much to talk about. I I have to ask Tim.

I’m on this talking, the TPUSA thing. I saw the clip of you with Bannon. Right? And I had I so one of the things that I think is gonna both become a conversation I think is happening a little bit underneath the surface right now is how afraid there was like a New York Times article recently about Iowa voters saying that they didn’t wanna be quoted saying that they were for somebody else in the Republican primary because they get scared of Trump supporters. Right?

And I think that it is an underappreciated element of Trumpism, the menace. Okay? But I watched you, in the room with them. And Brandon was sort of like hyping you up as a as an as an as a cartoon enemy, but in a way that totally seemed to also can, like, convey that you were there to be jested at, but not harmed. Right?

Like, there wasn’t he wasn’t bringing menace to it. He was bringing, and I think that one of the interesting things about Trump’s Republican Party is how you can weigh wax and wane between the humor of it all and the menace of it Right? The things like kind of go back and forth. Did you feel totally safe there at because you seemed fine.

Yeah. I felt safe. I mean, there was one guy that was very unhappy, that they had me. Because after, you know, the video clip, you know, where I go up and I say, let’s give it up for our our legitimate president Joe Biden and try to start a USA chant. And then I went back there and, like, the bay BANens producers or whatever.

Like, they like me. Like, I like, they they they like arguing with me. It’s kinda like there is a little bit about old, like, college debate school attitude. Like they are, you know, they don’t have anything personal with me about being a traitor. Right?

Like, it’s different. Like, the people that are more mad at me like my old friends who I judge and who I say that they made more they’ve made moral compromises. Right? Like, Diana knows I find him morally repulsed that Right? And that just doesn’t bother him.

And that doesn’t bother those people for whatever reason. I this is a little bit of a different dynamic. So I’m standing back there just kind of talking with and, like, asking, you know, trying to get information to get people’s perspective, understand what’s happening in their warped brains, and a guy comes up. And he’s like, why is this guy get to hang out backstage? Like, I’m part of the posse.

Like, I’m part of the war room posse? Like, what’s his fucking like? What’s his And, like, a couple of the ban abandoned has security, which I asked about. I was like, what do you have security for? And he’s like, this CCP.

Okay. He’s like, it’s not the lips. I’m not scared of the lips. Okay, man. It’s the c c t m.

Well, he’s remember he was he was on

He was on the Chinese dissident.

The Chinese, yeah, dissidence yacht, when the and they were both involved in the build the wall scale.

Yeah. And maybe the Chinese dissident actually just turned out wasn’t a dissident, was a spy playing both sides. I don’t know. There’s a lot there’s a lot we could go into there. But anyway, so banning at security.

So a couple of those guys did like go up and calm that guy down. So I I didn’t, I mean, what was this guy gonna do? Punch me in front of everybody? I mean, maybe, I guess. But I I I didn’t feel particularly concerned, but he was kind of menacing but, you know, I I think that the thing that worries me about all this is it only takes one percent.

You know? And I and I think that there’s a self selecting nature of this. If you’re going to this thing, a, you kind of have high sociability. Like, you wanna go to a conference, you know, it’s mostly like college Republican guys or older people that have nothing to do. And I had a couple older people like that that came up afterwards and I was like, My daughter’s a lid like you.

Like, how do I talk to her? How can we be that literal? It’s kinda sad almost. Right?

Yeah.

And so to me, it’s like, there’s another category of people that’s one iteration over from this that’s getting all this information on their laptop, and they’re not leaving their house. And they’re getting matter and matter. Right? And so I so I don’t, like, I don’t wanna say because I didn’t feel scared that I don’t think that there is a menace to it. There is, I think.

But, but in the in that moment, it was not different. I will say at the Carrie Lake event in Queen Creek right before the election, we’re also like that at the highest stakes moment. You know, all the domestic terror, like our friend Elizabeth Newman said, like, all these experts are like, like, it’s always is there’s a building and a building and a bill and that’s why January six like there was this one moment, one place. Like, that’s what you have to worry about. We’re not at that right now.

And like if that carry lake rally three days before the midterms in Phoenix, I did feel a little unsettled. I was just kinda looking around at the crowd, and I was like, I don’t I don’t I don’t know if I feel like. I don’t know how good I feel about this. I gotta get out of here. So anyway.

Sorry JBL. I’m trying to think.

I’m only trying to control this. You you do what you wanna do. Alright. Can we move on?

Because Two hour Christmas pot. Two hour Christmas pot. Let’s do it.

A Christmas miracle.

People are gonna be with their in laws. They need a distraction. They need stuff to do. You know? They need a they need an escape

No one’s gonna be national.

Not me. I love my loss. Not me. I love my loss, but other people.

ProPublica. Put out another Clarence Thomas, Thomas, Peace, this one suggesting that Clarence Thomas had started hinting, not I didn’t really hinting, but if he didn’t start bringing home some more cash, he was gonna have to retire. And, you know, immediately after that started happening, conservative world swung into, action, to start lending him money and making sure that he could live the lifestyle he wanted to. And it’s an amazing amazing piece. And there’s there’s a quote in it.

I I’m not gonna be able to find it right now, but, I read it on the show with AB that she and I do now. And, There’s this guy who’s a law professor who is a friend of both Thomas and Harlan Crow, who vocations with them, who, who said, like, oh, yeah. No. They’re not trying to to, you know, influence his decisions. They’re just trying to, you know, give him the lifestyle that he deserves.

It’s the worst, like, when you are an appointment for life, you can you can blackmail people by simply saying, I’ll leave this post if I don’t make more money. It’s really wild and, and nothing will come of it. It’s just amazing to me. I don’t know. Do you guys have thoughts about it?

Or just like, man.

That was the JBL rapid fire one. You got you got to do it. I’m I’ve been preparing my rapid fire.

Alright. Tim, butt sex in the Senate.

Butt sex in the Senate. Okay. I don’t know anything about I mean, Clarence Thomas does seem to be, well, I guess kind of You might say whoring himself out a little bit. So to speak, you might see a word about that. I just wanna say something to we have a handful of gay listeners I hear from from time to time.

I am just supportive of everybody expressing their sexual desires in whatever way they want in in in private or even Whatever way?

Oh, private. There is a much better.

Even little ears is fine. I don’t I don’t wanna hear, Ted Cruz talking about like sticking his little pickle in anybody. I don’t like that. But if, you know, if you wanna go do a little deal and take a little video of yourself and put it on your green circle. Okay.

That’s that’s that’s for you. On Instagram, there are these green circles where you just put other gays in there, and then you kinda send your sexy pics to your friends that, you know, that are just your close inner circle. It’s an inner circle Instagram service. Anyway, if you wanna do that, all good. Alright.

But you know, you can’t do butt stuff. An Amy Colbatar’s chair in the senate chair room. Okay. That’s a no. It’s just a no.

And there were several and then the guy is coming out. He’s like they’re coming after me. I’m gay, and they’re coming after it’s not identity. It’s like, no, brah. They’re coming after you because you’re doing butt stuff on Amy’s Klobuchar’s desk.

Alright?

And to be fair.

It’s not cool.

Be fair. If this was a straight couple that had filmed themselves, I think people would be equally

also bad.

All I don’t think there I don’t think there’s a there’s a

lesbians might bring it away with it.

No. It brings out a certain element, the fact that it was gay, but I don’t think, I don’t think anybody having sex and filming it on Amy Klobuchar’s chair or any of the senators chair would go without punishment and recrimination.

Tim, I have question for you. I know this is your segment. As punishment, should senator Klobuchar be allowed to throw a binder at the offenders?

Seems like he would like that. The the, so probably, I don’t know if that would be a pun Okay. Never mind. Just, just based on the video. It seems like you’d like that stuff.

What’s wrong? Yeah.

Look, everybody, it was a a Sebastian’s messaging. It took five minutes for my gay kip kickball group chats to identify the guys, the guy. I mean, it’s just what you’re playing a little fast and loose. That’s all I’m saying. I I I don’t like people The green circle should be a private space.

I don’t like people leaking it, but, you know, I I just you you you you have to there there are some, I think, judgment calls The Senate has a cloakroom I’ve heard, that might seem like a nice place to try, you know, a little sexy time. Or maybe like a little handy. Maybe like a little handy end of the table.

Go home.

Yeah. Home is also good. I’m just I’m just saying, I for me, it’s like, I wanna I just wanna state that, like, I have pretty liberal mores on this front and and and this is way over the line. Okay. Way pass.

The line. That’s all I’m saying.

Ice skating rink on the Capitol Mall this time of year. That would have been fine. Right?

Or the trees in the mall at night, you know, where we used to go get get high in college at GW. Like, maybe you could do a little a little handy over there. That could be okay. But Amy Klobuchar’s chair, young man. Come on.

What does your mother think about this?

Sarah Longwell.

So I’m just gonna go from that to some polling information. Just wanna talk about some code. Okay. So, two things. Oh, boy.

Oh, boy.

I hate it. I hate it. Okay. So Cook political report has two ratings changes.

Mhmm.

For Michigan and Nevada, both went from lean d to toss ups after all of the polling that’s been coming out. So we did some good news polling earlier in the show, but this is the bad news polling is that for Michigan, which, which, Gretchen Whitmer just won by ten points over her Republican rival. It’s a tough tough thing. Also, there’s a new Emerson Iowa poll. The head to head has Trump up eight over Biden but that’s not the part that’s interesting.

The part that’s interesting is that, Haley has moved into second place, still losing to Trump by thirty three points, though. So hayley’s accept yeah. So this is Iowa. Iowa. So this is interesting in the, again, going back to the point about how this Colorado news is gonna step on what might have been some Haley MENTum opportunities.

This is a good one where you now have your first poll in Iowa showing that Haley has now, over DeSantis. So she’s at seventeen. He’s at fifteen. Trump is at fifty. Five zero.

Can I tell you that I I had a I had a drink with ViveX? A ViveX staffer. I guess I don’t we were off the record. So I shouldn’t say who it was, but a ViveX staffer, and I have to tell you. I was really caught off guard, but the fact that they genuinely think they are gonna finish second in Iowa.

Oh, which seems delusional to me?

He is at he’s at eight percent. Christie’s at four percent.

Yeah. He think he thinks that there’s gonna be a surge of non traditional caucus voters for Viveikramaswamy. People that aren’t aren’t so sure about whether the earth is flat around or nine eleven conspiracy theorists. A lot of people that are coming out. Yeah.

Right. Why now? I’m feedback. Here’s here’s a very serious question. And I I’m not just trying to troll because I’m the one who said maybe DeSantis doesn’t make it to Iowa.

If you are Ron DeSantis evaluating your political future, and I assume he wants a political future, he’s not gonna be content to ride off into the sunset and just make money. Which is worse? Staying in and finishing third and maybe even a bad third if the bottom drops out or just getting out right now and not making it to Iowa.

Well, this is where we haven’t really talked about Jeff Rowe, but, like, it’s a great question. They’re in complete disarray they have no so, like, they’ve built this ground game in Iowa. Like, that’s the main thing that the pack has done that I think that I think everybody would agree that they’re their media strategy has been a bust. But this ground game is like the one thing that they’ve really invested in. So it’d be a little wild of them to walk away from that because that’s the part they believe in.

That being said, DeSantis is moving quickly from, like, twenty twenty eight leader to never having a political career again.

Yes.

And I’m not sure getting out now versus get finishing third in Iowa. I’m not sure he avoids that period.

I don’t think it matters one way or the other. Yeah. I do think that it’s prepa the whole the door knocking thing was always preposterous. The whole thing is ridiculous. This is not a state senate race.

Like, you’re not gonna, like, by knocking on somebody’s door and handing them a hanger that’s like, Ron DeSantis. You know, like cut taxes and and banned people for mentioning gay stuff in school. So they think that’s gonna like Bulwark. It’s gonna help turn people out. I like the whole thing.

The whole thing is just absurd.

I don’t know, but we should we should take some shots at Jeff Rowe because I I do wanna just say, like, this is obviously most people don’t care about the guy running the outside pack, nor should they? But I would like say for a guy whose firm was taking sixty cents on the dollar out of this, and who, you know, after sniffing around the Trump campaign went hard for DeSantis. I I think that it is imp like, if any of these and I’m sure nothing I’m sure nothing happened. But like, anyone who was on the DeSantis campaign should never work again. Like, this is the most incompetent race I have ever seen.

It’s they the and and I’ve seen some incompetent ones. I’ve seen some campaigns, Timmy, with some big money, and that have and have spent it poorly. Like I’ve seen people make some dumb decisions. This is the worst thing I have ever seen. Did you see yesterday?

They put out a thing that was like Trump Haley. Like, his big thing now is that Nikki’s con Nicki’s thinking about being his vice president. And I’m like, What argument is that? What argument are you making? Are you making an argument that Nikki is good enough to beat Trump’s VP that Trump is bad because he’s picking Nick.

Like, what is the argument that you think is going to resonate with people from doing that other than Meek saying you’re not in the mix, like you’re gone.

Make the establishment gradient with the tagline. Yeah. Look, the difference between this and Jeb was that In Joe in Job’s campaign, which which I’m not considering defend, but, like, the strategy is defensible because it had just worked for Mitt Romney. Right? It was just like, you raise a bunch of money, put a bunch of money on TV, you let these crazy people go up and down, you solidify your spot in the normal lane, and then of when people get serious and get to vote, they’re gonna vote for you.

Obviously, that seems silly in retrospect, but like at the time, like, that is just how Mitt Romney had just won against you know, all the crazy people that went up and down in that race in twenty twelve. And so that’s how mccain had won, annoying. This is like eight years after that. And this is my whole thing. It’s like Rhantis is running the same campaign.

We all saw a fail. Eight years ago, and doing it poorly.

Well, I mean, the good news for DeSantis is that Ron DeSantis is probably viable for twenty twenty eight. It just isn’t him. Casey. So I think it’s pretty clear that KC will be the next one getting an actual

I’m excited for the KC versus Gates Florida governor primary. That’s gonna be good. Yeah.

I think that’s basically where we’re and and I’m not kidding. Like, I I actually think that’s the best way to be done. Yeah.

She is

she is better than him by miles. Well, like, if you watch them

talk better than him.

I I know, but she I mean, I do you do see all these clips where it’s just like her going on a long, monologue, and he just kinda sits there, and like so to discover The TV head She’s a TV news anchor.

This is

what they do.

Kim Reynolds. But but she’s not bad. I mean, she’s bad, but she’s not she is she’s She’s much better at it much more compelling than he is.

She’s close to a Kerry Lake.

Okay. Should we talk about Christmas and make this a two part episode, J. V. Do you have anywhere to go?

Sure, Tim. Extravaganza. That’s great. This is it’ll be like kill bill volume one and volume two. Tell us about Christmas, Tim.

No. It’s I was I I was more curious about what you were gonna do. You’re the one that has four kids and has a lot of Christmas joy and is running a Christmas poll. Yeah. It’s okay.

We don’t have to we don’t have to talk about that. I was wondering how the shopping

could go

in and all that. And I love it so much. We have a we have a San Francisco event January eighteenth. We should talk about

That’s right. We’re gonna be out in San Francisco. Frisco, as the locals call it. And, isn’t that right, Timothy? Just the three of us.

San Fran. They like to call it SF. Fantastic.

Ron DeSantis excited. I will not be able to take in a game at PAC Bell Park. Sadly because the season will not have started yet, but I’m looking forward to spending a good eighteen hours on the ground in San Francisco and seeing you guys and getting sick from it because that’s going to happen. Can I be a crazy person and just wear a mask on the plane? Because I don’t wanna get sick from the the animals next to me.

No. Not allowed

to do that.

Well, you I mean, you’re allowed to do what you want. It’s a free country, but, like, the if you just think about it rationally, the wearing the mask on the plane and then going to this event where you are going to shake hands and put your arms around and take selfies with a bunch of people. Like, which which one is more likely for you to get where you’re gonna

get some.

Remember the seinfeld episode with bubble boy? Maybe I could be the bubble boy. I’ll be in a little plastic bubble with my arms.

Can I just tell you, we’ve done a bunch of these and

And I get sick every time?

Really? I get sick from my children at home. I never get sick from these events.

I mostly well, not mostly. I would say I I go about fifty fifty with kid germs at home. Sometimes I I make it. Sometimes, in fact, I’m making it right now. Why a flu a is in the house and so far touch wood.

I’m doing okay, but I go to events with you guys And the people, and I have to sit on a train or fly in an airplane, and then I just, you know, thirty six hours later. I’m down.

K. Stop licking your hands, man.

Yeah. If you live out in the Bay Area, come and come and hang out with us on January eighteenth, at the Commonwealth club. Gotta go get tickets now, though. Go to our website, the bulwark dot com slash events

We have great Sunday show for everybody. We have great Sunday show. Tune back in for that. You’ll be very excited. We got plenty of Christmas for you.

A lot of Christmas great.

We have one more show before the end of the year.

Yeah. We’re we’re back. We’re not going on any vacations. Yeah. Yeah.

We got all the content you made.

We’ll come back with our twenty twenty four predictions.

Keep out things that we can.