Vitamin Y (The Secret Podcast PREVIEW)

Hey, there. It’s JBL. On the Secret Show with Sarah Longwell today, we talked about Glenn Yonkin getting into the race and shaking everything up and also a whole bunch of other stuff. Here’s the show.

The great white hope, Glenn Yonken. The red there’s gonna be a red vest retreat. Speaking of white.

It’s gonna be a lot of a

lot of the these delusional donors that are retreat somewhere with Clint Yonkin wearing a red sweater vest talking. I love that. The red vest retreat.

Tech vest. It’s a tech vest, Sarah.

No. But it’s red. That’s what they’re calling it. They’ve named it. They’ve named the retreat, the red gusper treat because the cavalry is coming.

The cavalry is coming. They’re gonna have Glenn Yonken is just getting tickled all over. Please get in. We need you. None of these guys are gonna do it.

And I think yeah. I think I think they should I’m excited for this play.

Tell tell me tell me if Clint Young and Rudy were to get in tomorrow. What number does he pop to in the first poll? Three percent or two Oh,

no. I think he I think he gets six, seven per I think he’ll I think he gets so here’s the thing. I think he gets an early, like, junk and curious voters. Right? I think there’s, like, he’ll get this bump.

It’s the it’s the bump Ron DeSantis was getting. Of people who are like, oh, somebody new. I’m interested. And so, like, he’ll see that. It’ll be artificial, though.

Because then those people have to decide because they don’t actually know Glen Yonkin, just like they didn’t actually know Ron DeSantis. They were just, know, because I think there is a thirty percentage chunk of the Republican party that is move on from Trump interested. I think you got your always trumpers, your maybe trumpers, and your move on from trumpers. Move on from trumpers are split. Between everybody, although I did see I can’t remember who tweeted this, but it was a really I think it was Michael Sherr from the post that if you added up The polling numbers of everybody on stage, it’s still only equaled like twenty percent to trump’s, you know, Definitely.

Fifty seven or something. Yeah. Do you think Youngin will wait until after the Virginia legislature elections, which are coming up. And because I really have to think that If he could show voters that they were able to capture the house in Virginia, That would really demonstrate such power. And that’s the kind of data point that Republican primary voters are gonna really care about.

And I’ll look and he’ll say, boy, this guy’s a winner that we’ve we’re into it. This is so funny.

It’s so funny.

Oh, you know, gotta be laser focused on these legislative elections. And then, well, right?

This is the kind of, like, like advisor consultant thinking no. Then you’ll have, yes, this demonstrate. And, like, I understand. I actually would think it’s more logistics, like, he’s gotta actually focus to make that happen. Like, he actually needs to do the job in order to try to win.

That’s the kind of thing that, like, he and his consultants can talk themselves into really mattering as like an artificial deadline and or thing that would catapult them. And it would, in a sense, provide this narrative much like DeSantis had coming out of, his Florida election that he’s a winner. He’s doing things. He’s winning And that is gonna, you know, who that’s gonna is gonna love it. Doners.

Doners are gonna love that idea. Oh, this guy can appeal to everybody. So I think that Yonkin will I actually think Yonkin having watched him is a slightly better he’s a better politician. Ron DeSantis for sure. And some of these other guys, like, he does have a story to tell about Virginia, but he’s much warmer as a person.

Probably because of the vest that he wears.

Yeah. Well, they keep the core.

Right? They’re really good. I love a good sweater vest. You know how much I

love them. Yeah. You do.

Yeah. Yeah. Your best

game is on point Yep. As the kids say.

Yep. Yep. Yep. So I think he would and look, I think people love a new, a love a new guy. And so I think he has a minute of this is why I don’t think he’s at three percent.

I think he has a minute of kinda jump into the top of the field, lots of interest. Everyone’s talk about him. His name ID is going up. The curiosity about him goes up. And then but it, like, it tops out in the teens.

And then

Do you think he could break double digits? Yeah.

Do you know why?

Tell me.

Because Right now, everybody they’re deciding who they don’t want. Like, they’ve seen enough of these other guys to know that they don’t want them. It’s not like A bunch of people, like and even, like, the Nikki Haley people or the Tim Scott people, their their little percentages, They’re just normies being like, I don’t like Trump or the people like him. And so this is the normie person I choose. But, like, they don’t think Nikki Haley’s gonna win.

They don’t think my Pence is gonna win. Tim Scott. And so, yeah, the chances of him kind of coming in and suddenly they’re consolidating some interest, and breaking double digits, I think is totally plausible. We’ll see. Do you wanna do an over under bet?

You take under five? I’ll take over five. Or do you wanna give it six?

After how after how long after a week? Like, the first the first poll I mean, the first post Youngan Will Saletan

say let’s do three. I’d do three pulls because I, you know, either one of us could catch an hot wire. Let’s take let’s do the average of the first three pulls.

Okay. I would set the line at five points, and I’d take the under.

You’ll take under five.

Okay. I’d take the under.

I’ll take the over five.

So here’s why I I do think he has to wait until the Virginia elections is because if the virginia if he announces and then the Virginia elections go badly, Uh-huh. Then the campaign blows up. Right? It’s not because I I view it as a defensive thing, not an offensive thing, not because of, you know, rationale, But because if if he announces he’s running for president, and then three weeks later, Virginia voters, elect a whole aspects of Democrats, that that blows up his his rationale.

It’s a great point. That’s a great point. And if I were them, I guess, and I was actually thinking about getting in, I would not be setting expectations around the Virginia. Thing.

No. That’s it was a huge mistake

to do. Of them getting corrected in the house as opposed to winning everything, especially on just because I think In these elections, like abortion really is a big one. I’d yeah. I just think it’s I would be a mistake for him to hinge a lot Jonathan Last

I I do think he’s gonna run at this point. And a lot of

Yeah, do.

Because he has well, I mean, his Ron DeSantis weakness

Yeah.

Is just inviting somebody else into the field. Right? And the fact that the account Nikki has not been able to capitalize on it really. You know, I mean, as weak as DeSantis has been Nicki is up, what, four points. Yeah.

You know? And also, Youngin clearly wants to run for something else. And he’s got one term as Virginia Cup. He’s got nothing Yeah. So he could come in.

And if he somehow catches lightning in a bottle, then great. And he’s, you know, shocked the world. And if he doesn’t, then he well, it wasn’t really his fault. It was only because he jumped in late to try to save the party.

Yeah.

Right? This is, you know, I look, if I had gotten in early, if I’d done it, what everybody else did, but I was just too focused on governing. Like, this is the story he can tell himself, and can try to sell the Republican voters for whatever else he runs for next. I hope I I really, really, really hope that, Ron DeSantis gets smeared all over the tarmac in some way on this because it would be really wonderful to have Yonkin hurt DeSantis’ career in some way. I don’t I don’t know how.

No. No. Wrong wrong.

It would be nice. I also I there’s, like, somebody has said this. I think that is this is maybe not true, but there’s some of the scuttlebutt is about, like, Jeff Rowe. Right? So, like, Jeff Roe, there’s been some, like, maybe he’s turning Ron DeSantis, like, know, because here’s what happens.

Right? When you when a campaign implodes the way that Ron DeSantis one is, because everyone starts pointing fingers.

Right.

So Jeff Rose now trying to save his butt. By being, like, it’s not a problem with our campaign. It’s a problem with our candidate. Right? So, like, the whispers of it’s actually credited problem.

Tell me where he’s wrong. No. I don’t know. I think he’s right.

But but he abandoned Junkin.

Yeah.

He was Junkin’s guy. He abandoned Junkin to go Ron DeSantis So now, if Jeff Rose telling people, look, guys, DeSantis doesn’t have it, Yankin, I would like to watch I would like Jeff Rose to get screwed in this somehow too.

And the Ron DeSantis never gets screwed. The consultants always they’re like the house. The house always wins. Right? It’ll be great.

It’ll be great. And, you know, Donald Trump Will Saletan don’t even know who this guy is, and Trump won’t lose a single point. Feel a little bad for for team Nikki. I mean, they they have been sort of trying here

They have been.

And to have, you know, Republican voters just immediately say, well, I’ll I’ll try the younger guy. But whatever. Whatever You know, there is matters because Trump is gonna be the nominee.

Yeah. You know, it’s too bad Nikki sold out so hard because she’s been she ignites a little something. There’s this part of me that I’m like, oh, there you are. Twenty fifteen Nikki Haley with your substance. Like, I just I hate It’s it probably she never could have run now in this the earth we live on in the post Trump world as the person I think she always wanted to run as, which is the person who took down the Confederate flag in South Sarah Longwell the person who could tell a positive immigrant story about America as somebody who’s optimistic, but also young, a new generation, who could have been moderate on abortion because I think she is moderate on abortion.

And who could be really substantive on foreign policy. And I think she’d be Actually, a a really good candidate for the moment, in terms of, like, the geopolitical threats that we face, But I she couldn’t win as that person in this Republican Party. Number one, And then she went because of that, you know, she ran this sort of phony, full populist Trump wannabe thing. And that wasn’t who she is. And so now, you know, she’s this mishmash.

Person. Oh, you’re muted, bud. I know you’re muted to blow your nose.

Sorry. I I keep muting it so that I can cough and blow my nose and stuff. And then I I anyway, I’m sorry. You have to see the visuals of it, but it is easier for us to does he just I

think you’re beautiful.

So here’s the thing. The the the candidate you described there If you had just if we had just said, I am talking about candidate x and you you use those descriptors, And then I were to say, is this candidate running as a Democrat or a Republican? Yeah. You would say, oh, that’s a Democrat.

I hear you.

Right? And this is this is the pro Nikki Haley much closer to Joe Biden than she is to Donald Trump.

I’m sorry. Not fake

anything that we’ve seen. Not not the not the Nikki Haley who exists in real life. Right. But, yeah. Oh, gosh.

Okay. What else was there on our rundown, Glen Youngkin thing?

Well, you know, I just oh, I don’t know if we have to talk anymore about Youngkin. I don’t know. I’m I’m excited that you think he’s definitely gonna jump in. I’m I’m I just think his incentives demand it. Yeah.

I think I think no. I think you made a pretty good case there. And I think you’re right about the fact that There’s a much lower risk for him now jumping in late. Because even if he does well and people talk about him a lot, He is, he will be in the minds of he will he will people will think about him as the future. Yeah.

I And he can spend the next four years post governorship, like, campaigning for twenty twenty eight.

Yeah. Consultants will think of him as the future. The actual Republican voters will think about because the future, but that’s okay.

I don’t know. I don’t know that I I think that Vivek I don’t know. I don’t I don’t know that he’s got the staying power. He is just, I do think that Nikki Haley She hasn’t done so much to, like, elevate herself in a way that’s gonna be meaningful. I do think she is.

I do think she’s done some damage to Vivache. Like, I’m not sure. I think people are starting to just kinda be like, okay, dork.

Boy, that would be nice.

Yeah.

The the ratings are in on the, the debate incredibly low ratings. Nobody’s watching it because I think viewers have realized things that the media does not, which is that these aren’t actual debates. Yeah. What do you think about our potential Biden versus Trump debate? Do we get any of them?

Or is there one? One single debate for the for the two of them?

You know, it’s a good question. I think Trump will debate. I think Trump will want to debate Biden because I think trump

leading in the polls? Why would he? I mean Well,

because he’s not gonna be leading by forty points. It’s gonna be much closer than that. It’s gonna be neck and neck, and I think that Trump will think that he can just I mean, he showed a ton of confidence in these media interviews. I think he thinks he can bulldoze Biden and make him look old and, like, he can’t keep up with him.

So here well, here’s how I think about it. If I’m Trump would I want to debate Biden from the position of let’s just pretend that the race is where it is now, which is essentially tied maybe trump up one, maybe Biden up one, but essentially tied in the in the general election poll. That means that Trump is winning the electoral college. Right? If it’s if if the popular vote is fifty fifty, that means Trump has got, like, two ninety in the electoral college.

Then I’m sorry. That’s just the that’s just the way it is. From his perspective, why would you why would he expose himself to Biden or a hostile moderator or, like, just keep going. What’s what’s keep rolling with what he’s got.

I don’t know. I I’m gonna dig in on this. I actually think for I think he will debate. I think he will I think their strategy will be like, Joe Biden’s trying to hide in the basement. We wanna debate three times.

Like, I and because Donald Trump, You know what he wants to do? He wants to beat Joe Biden up on Hunter Biden. He wants to beat Joe Biden up on his record. He wants to talk about Afghanistan. Donald Trump has a now feels like he has things he can say in a way that he did in in twenty twenty.

And it’s much more a referendum on Biden than on Trump’s four years. I mean, I just think there is, I just I If I were Trump so, like, right now, if I put myself in Trump’s shoes, I wouldn’t debate these other guys because I’m up by forty points, but I would absolutely debate Biden.

No. I I would not want a debate button. I would think that my position is secure enough that I don’t need to. There’s more downside than upside.

K. Well, either way, let’s say either of our rationals, both of those are sort of assuming the Trump dominant position. I assume he’ll debate, because I think that both Trump thinks and also I think it could actually end up looking like Trump could dominate a debate with Joe Biden. And I guarantee you, it and people who are listening right now who don’t agree with me, ask yourselves, like, how do you because, this is what I hear from the focus groups all the time, the voters. They’re like, oh, when he talks, I get nervous.

Like, like, people, like, hold their breath for Joe Biden, and not because they don’t like him, but because they do. They’re like rooting for him, but they’re like, oh my gosh, please don’t stumble. Please don’t fall over. Please make your sentence without making a mistake. Like, people talk about that, about living in fear of him, of how he talks.

And so I’m arguing that I think Donald Trump will want that contrast, and you’re arguing that Donald Trump will feel so dominant. He won’t need that contrast.

Yeah.

So in both of our minds, we’re arguing from a position of Trump’s strength.

Yes. Yes.

So that’s not great.

It’s really bad. I I I’d maybe this is just the virus talking, but I have not climbed down from my place, like, a week ago where I was like, no. He’s he’s gonna be president again. Like, I with each passing week, I actually think more. Like, yeah, he’s gonna be president again.

Not gonna steal the election. He’s gonna win fair and square. This is what the people are gonna vote for. And I don’t I I can’t understand it. I’ve, you know, trying to to come up with rationalizations or explanations.

I can’t come to anything other than people are fucking idiots. That’s all I I just I don’t know.

I’m not chasing you down this particular rabbit hole today. Because Did

you have pity on me? Because I feel like, yes.

I mean, I I just, I don’t think we should call people fucking idiots until they’ve elected. Donald Trump. I actually don’t know that we should call them that. No matter what. But, you know what?

If they reelect Donald Trump JVO, we can we can have a conversation in which we get very mad at people. How about that?

That’s okay.

But but I I don’t think they’re there. We’ll

have that conversation in Canada.

But I also, I am just I am not as fatalistic. And look, I am I’m fatalistic about the Republican Party. I’m fatalistic. About Trump being the Republican nominee, I am deeply concerned that that he can win. I am not in under any illusions that, like, oh, he can’t win against Biden.

Of course, he can. But I do not think he will win. I just think it’s gonna take so much, but I think that we can beat him, but it’s gonna be easy.

Hey, again. It’s JBL. The conversation goes on from there. If you wanna hear the rest of the show, head on over to Bullworth plus and subscribe. We’d love to have you.