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Tim O’Brien: He Will Burn It All Down

November 10, 2022
Notes
Transcript

Watch out: Trump is embarrassed, cornered and facing defeat. When GOP leaders try to shun him, he will turn the base against them, regardless of how bad it is for the party. Tim O’Brien joins Charlie Sykes on today’s podcast.

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This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:08

    Welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I’m Charlie Sykes. It is Thursday. And as I said in my newsletter this morning, warnings against irrational exuberance are very much in order, but happy shot in Floyd Week for all who celebrate. And of course, to figure out what’s going on down in Mar a Lago, what’s going on in the Murdoch.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:26

    Empire, what’s going on in the temporarily sobered Republican Party. We’re going back to our a list Tim O’Brien, senior executive editor of Bloomberg opinion. And one of the somebody who goes, how many years you go back with Donald Trump? Twenty, thirty? To nineteen ninety.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:44

    Similar to the math there. Yeah. Thirty thirty two years. Tim is the author of Trump nation, the art of being the Donald. Well, this is an interesting moment for the man who has built his entire brand about being a big winner winning so much.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:02

    You’re just gonna get tired of winning. Well, let’s let’s just set the the table here. Here’s Maggie Abramsman. Who is an another close Trump observer talking about the Trump in the wake of the underwhelming non red wave election This is Maggie Abramsman on CNN. We
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:20

    are at a real inflection point. Clearly, the elites and the party are done with Trump. We only have to look at this. To know just where the elites and the GOP are. That doesn’t necessarily mean it translates to the base.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:30

    And so I think we are going to see. I think Trump is at his most vulnerable than he has been since January sixth, but whether somebody moves forward against him, we’ll select.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:40

    Mhmm. I key points there. There’s always a difference between the elites, you know, the people who write editorials for the Wall Street Journal and they were on the New York post, etcetera. And the actual base. I think we’ve learned that over the last six years.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:52

    But here’s Franklin’s Republican Franklin’s who went on morning Joe this morning. Clearly expressing this sense of frustration that he’s picking up from Republicans, Franklin’s this morning.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:06

    The people I talked to over the last twenty four hours have essentially said enough Donald Trump. Enough of this chaos, enough of the yelling and screaming. They look at the US senate and they’re mad at the former president. They think that he supported the wrong candidates. His endorsement still matters within the GOP, but they’re frustrated because they think that he is supporting candidates that are simply unelectable.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:30

    And we’ve seen this across the country. I don’t think that Arizona ends up coming for the Republicans. I think the democrats have enough of a lead at this point that another Republican endorsed candidate of Trump endorsed candidate has failed. If Rhonda Sanchez is the big winner among Republicans, because of of how we govern in Florida that Donald Trump, at least the people who who I talk to, they’re all telling me enough is enough, mister president’s time to go away. Okay.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:59

    So Tim O’Brien,
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:01

    what’s going on? What is going on? Down in Mar a Lago.
  • Speaker 4
    0:03:06

    When people tell Donald Trump enough is enough, it’s time to go away, that just incents him to come right back. So the idea that any elite opinion in the Republican Party matters a jot to him is it just doesn’t, and in fact, it incents him. And I don’t, you know, the the last inflection point I think for him really wasn’t January six, It may have been for Republican elites, but it was November of twenty twenty when he lost to Biden. And back then, the feeling was, well, look, he just got beaten in a presidential election, his time has passed. And at the time I was saying to folks then is be careful because he’s just gonna wanna burn the house down.
  • Speaker 4
    0:03:52

    He’s not going to accept this as a final judgment. You know, Donald Trump will want his tombstone to say I won, and he was going to do something to address that. January six was the outcome of that. And for a brief moment, after everyone in the Republican elite leadership saw what he would do when he was cornered and facing defeat, lashed out against him, and then aqueous. And we could talk about any number of them, but, you know, obviously Mitch McConnell, aqueous, eventually Kevin McCarthy, aqueous, and then he had all of his enablers like Ted Cruz and Josh Holly, etcetera, etcetera.
  • Speaker 4
    0:04:27

    So I think now, having been embarrassed in the midterms, I just don’t think he’s gonna have any inclination to go away even if the elites want to. Now I think the elites can do a lot to hasten his demise which they didn’t do last time. I think there’s a lot the party could do to begin publicly shutting him in the way that some of the brave pioneers on that front like like Liz Cheney have done. I think Mitch McConnell needs to be much more forceful about it. Kevin McCarthy’s already made his bed.
  • Speaker 4
    0:05:01

    So I don’t know. I can’t imagine he’s now gonna turn around and take it out of my party Donald Trump. Because he’s a Trump creation to some extent. And the conundrum is he is still going to be a big force in the primary process, and he’s gonna drag people down nationally. And the Republicans gotta figure out how to square that circle.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:21

    So you used a phrase that I think is crucial here. And I was gonna build up to it, but I I think we might as well, you know, cut right to the chase here. The phrase you used was that he will burn it all down. And isn’t that the conundrum for the Republican Party, is that they either give him the nomination, either acquiesce or he will burn it down. He’s made it clear, he doesn’t give a damn.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:43

    He will sabotage senate candidates, he will smear and attack anyone. There’s no way that Donald Trump goes away quietly and and there is no way to square that. Is
  • Speaker 4
    0:05:54

    there? Because he’s the Frankenstein’s monster. Right. And and he’s now coming for the villagers. Right?
  • Speaker 4
    0:06:00

    The GOP was happy to have him focus his stuff on the lips and use him as a useful idiot to get a, you know, more conservative court, to get a tax cut, to get some practical outcomes of that. But the impractical outcomes they don’t want, where he eats his own children is now staring them in the face because what he will do is he will sabotage the GOP leadership to the GOP base. And he will create really vicious internet sign warfare within the GOP. And he will stoke it and perpetuate it without caring whether or not it’s good for the party or for electoral strategies or for his own ability to go back into the White House. He will simply say, all of the people leading your party don’t like me because they’re bad
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:50

    people and you should hate them too. That’s the next phase of this. No. I I think that’s inevitable. Okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:56

    So seventy two hours ago, though the Republican conventional wisdom was, well, we need to go along with this, keep our heads down because we need him to win. We’re going to win anyway, so why push back against the crazy, the hypocrisy, the conspiracy theories, the whatever it was that Donald Trump was engaging in in any, you know, given twenty four hour period. But seventy two hours ago, they could convince themselves that they were still on a trajectory to win, and they may have to eat the shit sandwich because that’s what the voters were going to reward. But after Tuesday, there appears to be some shock shock recognition that Noah, Trumpism is a bold anchor that Trumpy candidates ran way behind the more normal Republicans. And so I guess the question is, right now, they have the prospect of going with a Trump like candidate like Ron DeSantis.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:50

    Or going with somebody who increasingly looks like he is absolutely politically and electrically toxic. So you and I have both seen Republicans cave in over and over and over again. We know that that January six didn’t turn them. We know that Charlottesville didn’t turn them. We know that no appeal to decency or principle is going to change their minds.
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:12

    But what about the prospect of actually losing power? Does that focus the mind?
  • Speaker 4
    0:08:18

    Will that be? It has you. It has to focus the mics. It always focuses the mics. I think Mitch McConnell’s the proxy for craving, weather, veining around the retention of power.
  • Speaker 4
    0:08:30

    And doing so in a judicious way even if it’s craving. And, you know, he’s just a shrewd parliamentarian in that regard, I think. So we watch McConnell and we watch how the apparatus gels around Rhonda Santos you know, and ultimately, like, say, a raw to scientist, christy, known ticket, or a raw to scientist, Nikki Haley ticket, something like that. As as more than just a finger in the dike, but a way to rebuild rebuild the whole dam. And I do think you’re going to see that.
  • Speaker 4
    0:09:03

    I I think the trick will be however selling that to voters. And how Trump acts while that goes on. And I I feel like that’s a TBD still. You know, I
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:14

    I obviously, we don’t know what’s have but there are different power centers in the Republican Party, and we have focused on the base, this this hardcore percentage of Republicans that are just gonna stick with him no matter what, and I don’t know, is it forty percent of the Republican base that is gonna go with with Donald Trump no matter what? I didn’t
  • Speaker 4
    0:09:31

    like that. I would say thirty — Probably thirty percent. — about some some meaningful portion. Right? Okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:37

    So thirty percent, which does, you know, suggest his strength, but also some vulnerability. But that’s not the only power base. You also have the donor class. You have the media, the the entertainment wing of the party. And you have the elected Republicans, probably the elected Republicans being the least significant of all of those.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:55

    But up until now, the the donor class has been allied with He’s had a very reliable media echo chamber. That seems to be changing at least in the last stuff forty eight hours. The donor class now is is having second thoughts.elected Republicans are looking around going, you know, No help. Fox News went after him on election night? Well, let’s talk about that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:18

    You know, are the Murdoch breaking up with him? Because that’s one of the big questions. You have the Wall Street Journal ripping him. You have the New York Post with that hunky, dumpy cover story. You have Fox News ripping him on election night, Laura Ingram.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:31

    Suggesting this is not about ego. Now Tucker Carlson is still carrying water. But so what’s going on with the Murdoch? You’ve watched them for years. So
  • Speaker 4
    0:10:39

    let’s say that the New York Post, the print publication, that’s a proxy for Rupert. Mhmm.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:44

    And so
  • Speaker 4
    0:10:44

    a humpty editorial is Rupert saying take a shot at him. Mhmm.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:50

    The
  • Speaker 4
    0:10:51

    Fox News Network is a proxy for Laughlin Murdoch who has been far more mad at than Rupert. And Lockwood has been willing to allow the Tucker Carlson and Poison to and and its variations in Laureying rum or others to bleed across the network and to sort of let the most ruthless and and vicious forms of propaganda to come out of the airwaves there. I think that’s because that’s where Ocwen himself resides. I think its father is a more practical and kind of cold blooded strategist. I think Walkman has some true believer stuff in him.
  • Speaker 4
    0:11:28

    So the real moment will be when Fox News wholly begins to disown him. And it was pretty striking to me, frankly, Charlie, that like, even Laura Ingram was sort of going there. And it was it was — Right. — Tucker Carlson who was still on the Pogo stick you know, throwing mud at the wall. And this was just Tuesday night.
  • Speaker 4
    0:11:51

    So I think if you watch Fox News and they start to air more and more critical pieces about how Trump backed candidates perform in the midterms, about the investigations facing Trump, about whether or not voters will stand by him, then then that’s an authentic sea change. You write
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:08

    Trump hung like an albatross from the next of super magna contestants and that may also have suppressed electoral momentum in the Republican Party as a whole might have enjoyed otherwise, even stalwart blame Trump for that. And then Fox News ran a headline noting that some considered him the biggest loser in the race. And I thought that biggest loser thing on election night was, wow, and then they had Fox commentators of Mark Tiesen said this was a complete disaster. So what makes this a little bit different though, is the contrast between Trump being the biggest loser, which by the way of, obviously, he just detests beyond words but also the contrast with Ron DeSantis, and it strikes me that he’s having a difficult time processing this. DeSantis winning so big just running up the score in Florida.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:54

    And all of these headlines about DeSantis being the future of the party and a winner. And so Trump actually puts up with his truth statements saying, well, you know, I got more votes, you know, in Florida than Rhonda’s Sanders, which I don’t know how you react. I I kinda was kinda weak and pathetic. Very low energy money. It
  • Speaker 4
    0:13:09

    was very low energy. It certainly was in the way he went after Chad Bush in the first debate where Trump sort of unfurled his viciousness on the National stage and then continue to pick off everyone else in the primary in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen, and then how he took people down in twenty twenty. I thought it was very weak he, because I think he understands that DeSantis is a formidable competitor. And DeSantis I think not only has assembled this huge majority for the GOP in Florida, he is methodically unwind the Obama coalition in Florida — Yeah. — in dramatic.
  • Speaker 4
    0:13:46

    Three practical and strategic way. And in a way that Trump has never operated himself as a politician, Trump or operates purely from emotion and playing on people’s emotional needs as a politician. And appealing to those and and their worst instincts. DeSantis, you know, DeSantis doesn’t like being in front of a microphone he can be very weird on the campaign trail. He doesn’t like to make eye contact with people.
  • Speaker 4
    0:14:11

    He’s got a lot of kind of personal quirks that could ultimately hobble him as national candidate, but that’s to be seen. But, like, in just the day to day machinery of politics and building a coalition. He’s done a really significant thing in Florida. You know, the Obama team really bought a lot of Hispanic and Latino voters in the Democratic fold in Florida, and they are now with the Republicans in a fairly short amount of time, in a ten year period. And I think in politics, that just rarely happens.
  • Speaker 4
    0:14:44

    And there’s gonna be some generational benefits of that possibly for the GOP in Florida that the scientists is responsible for engineering to some extent. And Trump has to see that and understand that he’s not someone who’s capable of all that. And he’s never came around and we could help him do it. Well,
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:03

    and and the other, you know, interesting wrinkle here is that This this is not a repudiation or a deviation from Trumpism. As you write, DeSantis is a vessel for Trumpism detached from the certest performance art of Trump himself. And obviously, a lot of voters still appreciate Trumpism even if it’s divorced from its author. So
  • Speaker 4
    0:15:23

    That’s the
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:23

    attraction. I mean, you can see that there’s a lot of of investment in the part of much of the conservative media saying, look, you know, DeSantis gives you everything that Trump gives you without without the crazy news. And that actually can win when Trump himself is a is a loser that that’s a real threat. But I again, the the million dollar question, billion dollar question is whether Rhonda Sanders will actually pull the trigger. I mean, he have a glass jar.
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:52

    Is he is he willing to put up with the slings and arrows of of the kind of attacks that he knows are coming from from Donald Trump who’s prepared to burn the house now.
  • Speaker 4
    0:16:02

    And then and also we’ll come at him from the Democrats if he if he runs for president. And he’s never been through that. And as you know, you know, presidential runs for any candidate of any party. It’s a humbling process because all of your weaknesses are going to be tested. And voters really ultimately responded candidates in a deeply personal way.
  • Speaker 4
    0:16:24

    And DeSantis is not a relatable man in
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:27

    a lot.
  • Speaker 4
    0:16:28

    Likable. No. Yeah. So that that will be interesting to watch. But I also think the larger issue is I don’t think conservatives and the GOP ever had a full reckoning yet with Trumpism because it’s still this anti institutional anti programmatic approach to polliticking and acquiring power that is free from policy and and free from tolerance is a dangerous thing still and it’s alive and well.
  • Speaker 4
    0:16:59

    Well, and as
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:00

    you point out, Trump was not an aberration. He’s an outcome of the American political process and identity. And, you know, this is this is this larger backlash against institutions and elites, and you’re right, wedded to cold blooded us versus them identity politics. Often, often peddled through bigotry and racism. And there’s no indication that that has run its course in any way.
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:23

    So let me just play a little sound by speaking of the right wing media, Fox News is one aspect, but of course, there are many, many other sort of, you know, mini me’s out there that that have big audiences and one of the most loyal outlets for Donald Trump has been has been Charlie Kirk and and his and his sort of the pluralable sidekick. Here’s an interesting sound bite from from one of the most deplorable of these juvenile sidekicks, Benny Johnson. Who is ranting and raving about the election, but also talking about what the heal of DeSantis might be to folks like him. And again, this is If if you’re Donald Trump, you have to be watching what is it that DeSantis is gonna bring to the right wing deployable maggot table at this moment. So this is Benny Johnson on Charlie Kirk’s show.
  • Speaker 1
    0:18:17

    Will Republicans use power? This is my question. Will they wield power? Because if you you have a single takeaway as the result stands right now, it is that what the Republican electorate wants is a strong executive who utilizes and wields power over his enemies and then destroys his enemies and makes them grovel, makes molten salty tears flow from their faces.
  • Speaker 4
    0:18:44

    Well, Charlie, that’s pretty much it. Spoken like a true fascist. And
  • Speaker 1
    0:18:48

    he’s talking about Ron DeSantis, and then he goes on to basically say that he doesn’t think that other Republicans Likins, like Kevin McCarthy, you could be able to deliver. They’re gonna be wimpy cucks like Paul Ryan and everything. And and then there’s, you know, Donald Trump’s sort of sitting there with that loser mantle in Mar a Lago. And and he’s gotta be, you know, he’s he’s savvy enough to know that when his own boys, are saying Rhonda Sandis is the guy who’s gonna give us the liberal tiers. That that goes right to the brand, doesn’t it?
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:14

    Totally because it walk a room chatter, and that’s where Trump
  • Speaker 4
    0:19:17

    lives. Right? It’s like, beat them in the streets. You know, this is why Trump was, you know, an incredible admirer of John Gotti’s. And he you know, he always felt that, like, John Gotti was so admirable, the mobster, John Gotti, because he he beat his enemies into a pulp and he never cried under pressure.
  • Speaker 4
    0:19:34

    And and and if some if people are saying there are other people on the on the national scene who are more more macho than Donald, and these are his own homie saying it, it’s going to dis can fit him to no end. He’s beating his drive against a tree right now in Mar a Lago. His his golf club, not his car driver. You know, he’s breaking clubs over his knees. And and it’s only gonna get worse.
  • Speaker 4
    0:19:58

    Yeah. And I’m sorry, I
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:59

    had to make a joke on Twitter yesterday that the red wave turns out to be just what catch up to sliding down the wall at Mar a Lago. Okay. So Tim here here is, I think, the most interesting immediate question and I really wanted to get your take on it because you have you have sort of an entree in into Donald Trump’s
  • Speaker 4
    0:20:18

    head. He
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:19

    on Monday night, when he was expecting the red wave, he announced that he is gonna have this big announcement on November fifteenth, next week, he’s gonna announce president and everybody expect that. The big, you know, it was all lined up. And then, of course, Tuesday happened and there’s pressure even from within the family now. The Jason Village of the world saying, hey, maybe you shouldn’t announce next week. Maybe you shouldn’t announce before the Georgia you know, run off election, you would, you know, detract attention from that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:49

    Okay. So here’s here’s the big question. What’s he gonna do? Are we gonna have a failure to launch Donald Trump’s stomach basically having to slink away from his own announcement?
  • Speaker 4
    0:20:59

    I do not think he’s going to announce. I think the whole reason he put this into play was like everyone else, he was distracted by inaccurate polling. I think he thought that the midterms were gonna create inevitability around the mod a movement and around him personally — Yep. — and he coasted off of that, like, a surfer riding a wave. Exactly.
  • Speaker 4
    0:21:26

    And instead, all the water has gone out to sea. And and and he is left tie and dry to stay with this bad metaphor. Yeah. And Which one? Yeah.
  • Speaker 4
    0:21:39

    And with with Donald Trump is an unsophisticated, ignorant man, but the one thing he understands is marketing. And and he understands how to pick your moment. And he has to understand right now for him to come out after all of his candidates suck to win. For him to then come out and say, yes. I’m declaring he runs the risk of being a laughing stock, not someone who has seen as inevitable.
  • Speaker 4
    0:22:08

    So I can’t imagine he’s going to announce next week or next month for that matter. I think he seems
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:16

    weak, seems low energy, Tim. I mean, I’m telling you.
  • Speaker 4
    0:22:20

    Yeah. He’s not gonna do it. He’s not gonna do it. I just don’t think he’s gonna do it. But here’s the rub, Charlie, is that he actually needs to run for the presidency to stay in the game.
  • Speaker 4
    0:22:30

    He he loves to give me the attention. If he’s not running for president, he won’t get it. He’s learned how to make money off running for the presidency. He’s not gonna run for the presidency. He won’t get it.
  • Speaker 4
    0:22:40

    He also is mired in hardcore investigations at the federal and state levels. And I think he believes his candidacy and a possible second two of the White House would insulate him from those. So for all those reasons, he’s going to feel compelled to run and I still think he may, but I just don’t think he’s gonna announce it in the near term because the bid terms were such a flacking. Okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:06

    So this is a related question. Republican’s gonna want him not to go to Georgia for the December sixth runoff. As you pointed out at the beginning of this podcast, he doesn’t care what what the Republican elites say, but so do you think he’ll go to Georgia? Because if he doesn’t go to Georgia, if he doesn’t announce and he doesn’t go to Georgia, Isn’t that this major concession that in fact he understands that he is politically toxic? And
  • Speaker 4
    0:23:31

    that he doesn’t have Mojo to lend to a tenant. Yeah. Yeah. I do. But remember, you know, Georgia, the Georgia runoff,
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:39

    did he fuck that up last time? He fucked that up
  • Speaker 4
    0:23:42

    last time too. I got we launched his show. I love that. I love that that we asked that up on Charlie’s show. He did put that up to twenty twenty.
  • Speaker 4
    0:23:52

    And I think warnick got a lift because Trump was a factor in that race. In the senate race in Georgia. So here we are with warnick again head to head with Hershel Walker, who’s a MAGA drone, and I think Trump will hurt Walker. So why would he go there and be present at the demise? So I I don’t think he’ll go to Georgia.
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:14

    Though I hope he will. Yeah. If you’re the Democrats, what you want is that he announces that he’s running for president, puts himself directly on the ballot And he he I think one of the things made so
  • Speaker 4
    0:24:27

    much appearances with Hershel Walker.
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:29

    Exactly. Because what is the secret formula for turning out Democratic roders. I think we found this out. Right? I mean, it is Donald Trump.
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:37

    I mean, I could certainly make that case in in a number of states. I wanna talk about the midterms for a second, but but let me something else you just brought up here. As of Wednesday, the window opens again on the possibility of indictment of Donald Trump, the Department of Justice has this internal rule that doesn’t do anything before the midterm elections. Well, that that is over. So Donald Trump is faced with look, I mean, we’ve had these bad moments before, and I don’t wanna, you know, recapitulate them all.
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:04

    But it does seem that there is kind of a perfect storm at the moment where he’s facing all of these legal charges, the possibility he will be indicted, the possibility, you know, and his own conservative media turning against some So his instinct, though, as you point out, is to lash out, is to push back, is to go on the offensive. He’s just not gonna sit there and wait for the grand jury. He’s not gonna sit and wait to decide what, you know, Fox News does to him. Right? So I that that’s why I’m torn about what what he’s going to do because he has to stay in the spotlight.
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:37

    Right? Yes. Yes. He does. And he’s gotta fix this brand problem.
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:41

    I mean, he’s got to the one thing in the world he has to do, right, Tim, is to shake this. I’m the biggest loser thing. See, the
  • Speaker 4
    0:25:49

    reason I think that he is gonna go on a rampage and devour his own within the GOP or at least try to is because this isn’t fixable now. There’s a public referendum. As candidates lost — Yeah. — he lost in twenty twenty. What he chose to do, when he lost in twenty twenty, was to try to foment a coup and actually tear the constitution apart.
  • Speaker 4
    0:26:15

    That option is not available to him now. Because this is an inter party problem. It’s not a national election. And the only thing he can do that’s comparable to staging a January six coup attempt is to savage everyone else in the party. The
  • Speaker 1
    0:26:33

    only
  • Speaker 4
    0:26:33

    thing you can do to to respond to the law enforcement investigation says to savage the integrity of law enforcement, which he’s already done and he’ll do more. But I don’t think people are gonna buy it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:26:44

    No. This is very, very interesting because you’re right. I mean, part of, you know, this Wall Street Journal editorial about him being the biggest loser, part of the power of that is that they’re linking together. He he flopped in twenty eighteen, twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, and now twenty twenty two. So he’s he’s got that track record So what would be his equivalent?
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:04

    Okay. So let’s just game this out. If in fact Carrie Lake loses in Arizona, she, of course, will not concede gracious. Which by the way, just parenthetically, it is kind of remarkable, isn’t it the number of magna candidates who are conceding gracefully? But completely.
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:18

    Completely and and real interesting, isn’t it? She
  • Speaker 4
    0:27:21

    is pretty impute in the process, so she may not be actual, but she will not be in keeping with the other maggots who have not alleged fraud.
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:29

    Right.
  • Speaker 4
    0:27:29

    So you
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:30

    could imagine that Donald Trump decides that he’s going to replay his greatest hits of January six by staging, you know, a major, you know, the election in Arizona has been stolen. We need to descend upon Arizona and do x y and z, that sort of thing. As a distraction. I could certainly see him doing that if she loses that election because if I’m taking your point, he needs chaos. He needs the fire.
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:54

    He needs the smoke, and he will bring it. Yes. So What do you think happened? What is your take on why the conventional wisdom was so wrong? Look, you and I both have read this stuff and We know that the entire hive mind had shifted that this was going to be a massive red way.
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:14

    I think that there’s some unfair criticism of the polls because some of the polls got it right. There are a lot of really crappy shitty polls out there, and I think that one of the things that remind ourselves is do not complete the shitty polls with the good polls. But there’s no question about it. Everybody bought into this this this narrative. And clearly, the voters did not behave as expected.
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:36

    So why were Democrats why were Democrats not blown out? And, you know, when there’s eight percent in inflation? How does that happen?
  • Speaker 4
    0:28:42

    Well, I love that you mentioned inflation because I actually think inflation is not a totemic device. It is it is part of a of a broader basket of economic indicators. And actually, the job market has been really robust. And it has held its own over the last couple of years. The markets have not totally imploded.
  • Speaker 4
    0:29:05

    Corporate profitability has not been savage, and inflation has been really horrendous, but You can’t just lay that on the democrats. Even average voters understand that some of the inflation is due to supply chain disruptions in the chaos of engendered by COVID-nineteen, that some of it is from big federal spending. A portion of it, which they liked because it went to help the economy and workers during COVID. Some of the other piece of it, you can argue that weren’t, you know, well thought through. But a portion of it was meaningful to a broad base of Americans.
  • Speaker 4
    0:29:42

    And another part of this I think for the average voter is that yes, they’re living inflation, but they also have more security than the inflation numbers would suggest. And so I don’t think people were feeling as bedraggled by the economy as people assumed because of the inflation numbers. And then I think inflation was turned into this sort of scare tactic by the right. You know, if you go to the pump, you should equate that without bad Biden’s. And but I think people were equating other things in their lives economically, and They’re not happy.
  • Speaker 4
    0:30:20

    I think Biden’s approval rating is bad, but I don’t think any of this was so cataclysmic economically that they were willing to say
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:29

    It’s very interesting. We
  • Speaker 4
    0:30:31

    will embrace maga candidates, and we will embrace even more modern Republicans. So I think there was too much room on the back of inflation. I think the GOP is underestimated how important reproductive rights are to female voters. Howard Bauchner: And I think that that’s a more salient issue than people and continue to be more than people thought it would be after the Dodd’s decision kind of had cooled off for a little while. And I think — Well — and it’s a few factors that got misinterpreted.
  • Speaker 4
    0:30:59

    Well, and and also
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:01

    going forward then, they have to realize that going to be an enduring issue, and it’s gonna be a major issue in twenty twenty four. Yes. And because I I I think that there was a moment in the last few weeks of the campaign where, you know, listening to Carrie Lake listing to other candidates. The lack of any blowback whatsoever when Donald Trump is attacking Mitch McConnell’s wife is cocoa chow and putting out any semitic tweets and things like that, that there was this sense that that because of the coming red wave and because of inflation that there were no consequences. They get indulged in any sort of crazy rhetoric.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:33

    And I think part of the sobriety is like holy shit. Despite these stories we’ve been telling ourselves, the crazy does hurt us. The candidate quality was devastating for us. And
  • Speaker 4
    0:31:42

    voters are
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:43

    watching. And voters are watching, and maybe they actually did care about democracy? I mean, it became very fashionable, didn’t it? In the pundit class to say, yeah. Okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:52

    Voters, you know, talk a good game about democracy, but it won’t affect votes. So dobs affected votes and January sixth, committee hearings affected votes for sure. More than more
  • Speaker 4
    0:32:03

    than people thought they would.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:05

    Why do you say that? It’s interesting. I think
  • Speaker 4
    0:32:07

    the January sixth committee hearings educated Americans. That’s why they care about democracy. That’s part of the reason. I don’t know that they’re voting entirely around that, but when they say, I care about the state of democracy, They have a heightened sense of it because of the j six hearings. Interesting.
  • Speaker 4
    0:32:25

    I think. And they were televised and they were educational. And that’s a powerful force. And I and I think I think voters care care about the state of democracy. They care about abortion.
  • Speaker 4
    0:32:39

    They care about their jobs. Think about their kids. And the GOP is gonna have to get a better game plan together than scare tactics. Around crime and inflation. You know, I think some of the crime, even the crime statistics, we could get into this, but some of the data Certainly, there’s been a spike in crime.
  • Speaker 4
    0:32:59

    No doubt. But it’s still better than it was two decades ago or a decade ago. So again, are people actually living the fears that the GOP say exist? Are they are they really enduring the economic problems that the GOP says inflation represents? Are they as scared on the streets as the crime data suggests they might be and that the GOP has really ramped up.
  • Speaker 4
    0:33:25

    I don’t know that they are. See,
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:27

    I was beginning to think that, in fact, crime was going to be a much bigger issue, but the states where it was really pounded where I thought it might make a difference would be like New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And with the exception of the Wisconsin senate race, it it did not turn out to be the the issue. And I do think that Republicans thought that that was the, you know, magic bullet. They thought they were gonna win the governorship in New York. If it was really a devastating issue, there’s no way that John Federman would have been reelected.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:55

    And you look at Michigan. I mean, Michigan was really a blue tsunami. Underappreciate, not only did you have the Democratic governor, Gretchen Whit reelected. You had the entire legislature flipped for the first time in a very, very long time. That’s an incredible story.
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:10

    So I don’t know that that I haven’t answered. I don’t know that you’ll have an answer when I’m we need to think about, though, because you you watch what happened in and and again, these are the crucial states that will determine, you know, the future of presidential politics, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. So Why are they so different than Florida? What has happening in Florida? That is taken a swing state and made it so freaky red.
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:40

    What is going
  • Speaker 4
    0:34:41

    on down there?
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:41

    Well, that’s a whole
  • Speaker 4
    0:34:44

    episode Charlie. Like, we can have a whole We can drop that in the
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:46

    end of that thing. But okay. Yeah. I mean, I feel like, like,
  • Speaker 4
    0:34:49

    we we we need a whole hour on that because it’s fascinating. I mean, boy, I think the Florida electorate is a very unusual electorate. I don’t know that they’re as participatory sometimes. I don’t think Democrats there aren’t necessarily as participatory as Democrats in other states. Oh, gosh, we could go on and on.
  • Speaker 4
    0:35:08

    I’m I’m I think we’ll do that. I mean,
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:12

    I just think we’re thinking about to to watch this because
  • Speaker 4
    0:35:14

    and
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:14

    and I remember election night. I we had a we had a livestream, and and it reminded me of the mood in twenty eighteen and twenty twenty were the first results we got were out of Florida, and it looked like this big Republican night and everything. And I remember saying, could you just wait? Because I think that Florida is kind of an outlier that that, you know, Florida Hispanic vote is very different than the Hispanic vote, you know, elsewhere. And, you know, let’s wait to see what’s happening in the Midwest.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:38

    And I said that in twenty eighteen and twenty twenty, and it turned out to be the case. But it is a remarkable story. And of course, we still don’t know what the end of this story is, Dewey. I mean, I’m look, I no longer expect that I’m gonna get a unicorn for my birthday. Uh-huh.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:53

    I would really like Lauren Bulbert to go down. I don’t know whether that’s actually going to happen. Maybe it’s too much to also, you know, hope that, you know, the Queen of MAGA Stan, you know, Kerry Lake goes down. But it was it was really extraordinary. You know
  • Speaker 4
    0:36:06

    what I mean? Can only
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:08

    hope,
  • Speaker 4
    0:36:08

    Charlie.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:08

    We can only hope, and we will leave it on that note of hope, which is very unusual for this podcast. Tim O’Brien, thank you so much for joining us again on the Bulwark podcast. Thanks, Charlie. I love these
  • Speaker 4
    0:36:18

    conversations. The Bologuard
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:21

    podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio production by Jonathan Seres. I’m Charlie Sykes. Thank you listening to today’s Bulwark podcast, and we’ll be back tomorrow. Do this all
  • Speaker 4
    0:36:32

    over again. Yep. You’re
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:38

    worried about the economy. Inflation is high. Your paycheck doesn’t cover as much as it used to, and we live under the threat of a looming recession. And sure you’re doing okay, but you could be doing better. The afford anything
  • Speaker 3
    0:36:49

    podcast explains the economy and the market detailing how to make wise choices on the way you spend and invest. Afford
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:56

    anything talks about how to avoid common pitfalls, how to refine your mental models, and how to think about how to think. Make smarter choices and build a better life. Afford anything wherever you
  • Speaker 1
    0:37:07

    listen.
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