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The Economy Keeps Getting Better (The Secret Podcast PREVIEW)

April 5, 2024
Notes
Transcript
Tim subs in for Sarah to talk new economic data that hopefully starts to make Americans feel good enough to vote for President Biden!

Become a Bulwark+ member to listen to the full episode: https://plus.thebulwark.com/s/thesecretpodcast

This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:00

    Then this place goes to shit when JBL is gone for a few days. Let me tell you. I am running ragged over here. I’m trying to write a newsletter. I’m hosting pod casts and look.
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:12

    Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Secret Podcast. I’m Sarah Longwell Longwell, sitting of my buddy JBL, but I’m here with my other best friend, my old friend, Timothy Miller. This was such a terrible week for JBL to be out for JBL. Because there’s a lot of, like, good JBL fodder in the news. We we got up this morning.
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:34

    We got another more than three hundred thousand jobs added to an already hot, job market with low unemployment wages are now outpacing in inflation. And so I think, you know, we did a little bit of, JBL is, you know, right a lot. Stuff on on the next level this week, but, this is
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:55

    There’s also a little JBL’s kind of wrong sometimes.
  • Speaker 3
    0:00:58

    Well, you know JBL can overstate. Yeah. You can overstate. But I do think
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:02

    I do think his just like general, and and nobody has fought with him more than I have about, how how early he decided that everything was fine and people were stupid. But, the reality has caught up, I think, with a lot of his, angst about this. And, it’s gonna it’s good for Joe Biden to have a strong economy. I there’s just sort of no two ways about it, and I think that the it’s the the thing about the jobs report that is I think interesting and important is the level of confidence in the stability of the economy is sort of what the fence gonna need to lower interest rates. Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:40

    And so, and then lowering interest rates, which I think is probably gonna be I don’t know if you have a thought on this just like slightly politically complicated for them because they don’t they’re very fiercely independent and don’t wanna be looked upon as interfering politically or helping Joe Biden by lowering interest rates, but it will invariably help Joe Biden to have interest rates lowered.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:04

    Yeah. I mean, barring another round of inflation coming. You know, I’m not a macro economist. Right? And so and that’s what I think what they’re more concerned about is is making sure that the inflation issue is stamped out before they lower interest rates again.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:20

    And, you know, there’s three three percent increase or whatever in the last report, which is about normal, but, feels high when you’re coming off of eight and at ten percent. Right? Inflation. So I they should lower them. Hopefully, we did I did a podcast with Josh Barrell.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:36

    It’s what Josh Sarah Longwell wants. It’s what Crystal wants all the smart people in my life want them to lower rates. I want them to lower rates. I’d like to refi. So do the do the do the deal Jerome Powell.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:46

    I mean, I think your point about being scared of perception, is something they consider. And again, it’s like how the the our side, the anti trump coalition, like hamstrings ourselves Jonathan Last, with, like, having to worry about the norms and the perceptions, which is good. I know, Sarah. I know you like that. You like to, you know, make sure that we’re being good good good boys and girls over here.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:11

    You can tell by how hard you’re rolling your eyes.
  • Speaker 3
    0:03:15

    I
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:15

    think it’s fine. I agree it’s fine. I agree it’s fine.
  • Speaker 3
    0:03:17

    I agree
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:17

    it’s fine. It’s just like, I just wish that we weren’t the only ones of worrying about this stuff. You don’t think don’t don’t even gonna cross Donald Trump’s cerebral cortex. Like, oh, maybe I shouldn’t tell the, if he gets back in, the fed to do the right thing. And immediately, he’ll get back in and just, like, lower rates cock.
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:37

    You know, I mean, like, like, demands to do it. And, I think when Bill wrote about this, in morning shots, he was like, that, that HW, this was something they dealt with, and they kind of did pressure the Fed a little bit. And I’m like, if HW did it, that’s that’s kind of like a green light to me. So anyway, hopefully drone pal does does the deal. The, the the job numbers are good.
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:00

    I did related to another topic you’ve been covering a lot lately, TikTok. I was on TikTok this morning. You’re a little late. And so I was on I was on TikTok and I was like, oh, wait, have to write a newsletter. So I was only on it for like three TikToks length of time.
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:14

    But in that three TikToks length of time, I saw a TikTok from a guy who’s who is like comedian. So, okay, it’s comedy, but it’s like John Stewart like comedy. Politics comedy and he’s walking on the street. He’s talking about how all his friends are getting laid off and how, like, the economy’s tough for millennials in Gen Z right now.
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:31

    And I’m like, what are you talking about? Who? I got it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:34

    I’m sure you have
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:35

    a friend that got laid off or something. But, like,
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:37

    the unemployment We’re at nineties level unemployment right now. And so, this is I I do I am concerned about this that that despite the continued new jobs news, I think I would have thought by April fifth that the vibes would have been a little bit better. They’re pretty good. Vives are pretty good, but like it’s still there’s still some like some lagging complaining out there in the world.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:01

    There there is. I do think we are, fond of complaining these days just in general. And I still hear a lot of catastrophizing in the focus group you know, when you ask people how do you think things are going in the country? People still say terrible. But I will just with a nod to some of the green shoots, I will say in some of the Democratic groups, you’re hearing more people say, I think things are getting better, feels better.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:28

    So I think like we’re just starting to hit like the the front part, of of voters starting to feel like maybe things are turning around and I think it’s gonna take a rate cut to get people. Like, I think there’s gonna have to be like a real easing up on inflation that is noticeable for people to really see the turnaround.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:51

    Yeah. One just think one other status on this.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:53

    Yeah. I
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:53

    don’t have it in front of me because I didn’t know this was gonna be our topic, but There’s a poll.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:57

    Neither and I.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:58

    Yeah. Well, you know, we just do that live on the secret, you know. The, there’s a poll that came out that was asking people How is the is the account? I don’t I think it was has the economy gotten bet I forget if it was has the economy gotten better in your state or had or how do you think the economy is doing in your state, whatever it is? In all the swing states, it was like, there was like plus twenty positive feelings about the economy.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:22

    And then when you asked the same people how the economy’s going in America, it’s like minus twenty. Right? And so it’s it’s similar to the crime stuff. But, like, you know, where people are I’m like, yeah, okay. I don’t know.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:33

    Things seem to be going pretty good here in Phoenix, but out there in the world, I don’t know. Things seem bad out there. I keep hearing bad stuff.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:39

    Yeah. Social media did this to us. Because now if there’s something bad anywhere Somewhere. Something is bad everywhere. And yeah, you know, if you’re you’re at a, a tech company and AI is causing some layoffs because it’s shifting.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:59

    Sorry, man. You’re probably gonna go have to go get a job in AI because it’s changing it’s changing the world, but there’s also a lot of jobs out there. Anyway. I
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:07

    This is good point.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:08

    I do I worry about this, like, kind of how, you know, media people, since they’re so homogeneous, sometimes distort what is happening just because, like, if they’re natural, and and I, you know, a lot of times conservatives will be like, that’s biased. And I’m like, well, it’s not always biased. Sometimes it’s just that every a lot of a high percentage people in the media have the same lives. So so sometimes they over index on a certain concern. And I I feel this way about the social media.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:31

    Right? Because I do think there is disruption right now in the tech industry. Right? And and you’re seeing that you do you are seeing layoffs in churn Now my understanding is most of these people are getting Jack Jobs and a lot of them have like RSUs and are, you know, buying houses in Tahoe and stuff. So it’s not like what, you know, it’s not a great depression.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:48

    But but they have influence on the so on social me. Right? Like the types of people that are experiencing this do, I think, have bigger microphones. On, you know, Twitter and TikTok and and these various things. And maybe that also is contributing somewhat to the perception that there’s
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:07

    I think that, and I also think, like, especially for young people for the zoomers, like, they got robbed of a lot there during the pandemic. Later. And in their lives, and I think that there’s just still a kind of a hangover from COVID in terms of, people not feeling settled in their lives, and the world still seeming sort of, you know, I I don’t know. I I I’m not close enough to it, but I feel like that’s what I get a sense of when I do the younger focus groups is just they’ve seen a lot of bad stuff, over the last decade. And I think for us who’ve seen, we’ve seen the good and the bad we lived through the the roaring nineties.
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:47

    You know. Life was and and so
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:50

    Save by the bell.
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:51

    And we still clit you know, we complained back then. I remember when I graduated college in two thousand two, and
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:55

    they’re everybody’s They’ve been available to college years.
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:01

    I mean, I watched the college years because I watched that the whole way is as long as they did a reboot right now and it was like, the forties and everyone’s getting, you know, their for and everyone’s getting kinda like divorced and remarried and people are, you know, people are taking their anti you know, whatever it was. I would watch that too. I would watch that too. RIP Justin Diamond, who played screen. Dustin.
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:26

    Thank you. Oh, look at you. Look at you with that poll.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:29

    Dude, I got my space. I had the bell knowledge.
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:31

    Okay. So, alright. My point is is that Jake’s
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:35

    jbl’s not here. Things go
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:38

    to shit. Things fall apart. There’s no fact checking. But when if JBL were here, he would be thrilled by this economic news and he would force us into a conversation. And I would be more on his side than I have been previously because I do think there is starting to be like people are too committed to the negativity.
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:57

    And they’re not looking at the fact that, like, we really are starting to hit a place where the indicators are all going the right way. But I think the rate cut, if it got, oh, this is the one thing I wanted to say to you though to your point about the Oh, we fight with our hands tied behind our back. See, that’s not really what I just want us to do the right thing no matter what it is sort of, irrespective of the optics. And so I neither want them to lower interest rates, because it is politically advantageous if it’s economically the wrong thing to do, nor do I want them to withhold a rate cut because they are overconsumed by the optics. And so if like the rate cut is what the Fed would do based on the factors they see on the ground, that’s what they ought to do.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:38

    And it
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:38

    feels like we’re getting to that place.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:40

    That’s a Mark Garland lesson. That’s where he real.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:43

    Yeah. It is. It is. He over he over worried about the optics and walked himself into a place where he was too slow, to do the right thing. And now Ultimately, they you got pushed into corners, had to do it because the facts were overwhelming, but then it was too late and everyone’s mad as he moved too slow, and Trump is delaying and delaying and George Conway and I have a great podcast.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:05

    We just dropped from yesterday. Where we go deep into this silene cannon weird stuff and some of the other, some of the other political news of the day, go check it out.
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:15

    Hey, Sarah. There’s there’s more show.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:16

    Oh, there is?
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:17

    But that’s only for the, you know, the people who are inside the velvet rope, the the board plus members.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:22

    Oh, they gotta subscribe.
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:24

    Yeah. Tell them to subscribe. Tell the people to subscribe. Guys, guys.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:27

    Why wouldn’t you subscribe? You get kinds of things. You get some some extra, me and JBL. You get some extra me and George Conway. Do you get Oh, you get JBL’s try at?
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:36

    This is one of the best things the Bulwark offers. I read it at least once or twice a week.
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:42

    Yes. Go and subscribe. We’d love to have you.
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