S4 Ep18: Nevada: State of Confusion (with Jon Ralston)

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Focus Secret Podcast, I’m Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark. And today, we are taking you to Nevada Did I say right?

You did. I’m impressed.

Okay. And look, I know what you’re probably wondering. The whole political world right now focused on South Carolina and whether Nikki Haley can make a dent in Donald Trump’s lead in her home state, but there is a super weird contest going on in Nevada that much of the political world is overlooking, and I wanna talk about it. The presidential contest in Nevada is just a complete mess because there are actually two contests. And this is gonna happen before South Carolina.

This is coming up on the sixth and the eighth. There is a primary, which is going to award zero Ron DeSantis, and Donald Trump is not on the ballot for it. Then there’s a caucus, which will award delegates, and Nikki Haley isn’t on the ballot for that one. And Republicans can vote in both contests if they want, and Nevada also has a unique none of these candidates option on the primary ballot that a lot of Trump supporters are opting for. So got all that.

Me neither. But my guest today can untangle all

of that for us and

he can explain why Nevada is still important in this primary and going to be really important in November of twenty twenty four. John Ralston, CEO, and editor of the Nevada Independent and my favorite person to talk to about Nevada. John, thanks for coming back on. I think my pronunciation, like, got worse as I went on, didn’t it?

It did, but it it’s okay because you were talking about our super weirdness and it It’s a super weird state. You’re allowed to pronounce it in a super weird fashion, I guess.

So first of all, you’re back on. I love having you on. Nobody knows more about state than you do. But one of my favorite things that you have this, like, rift you do on Twitter where you always talk about the hashtag Wematter state, but I gotta ask you. Do you matter the cycle?

Do you matter right now? I’m not sure anybody’s given you the love in this Republican primary. So tell me why you matter now.

Well, I’m contractually obligated to always say we matter. However, it seems like because of all of the shenanigans that you’ve just described quite accurately, we matter a little bit less at least in the nominating process, which isn’t as much of a mystery. Right? As the general election is. And in the general election, of course, Sarah, we’re still one of the half dozen, maybe seven or eight states that are really going to matter or presumably so in the electoral college and the race to two seventy.

But it’s hard for me to say we matter a lot considering all the confusion that has been caused by the Republican Party here.

So I’m gonna let you explain to us what the heck is going on. But first, I just wanna play a little bit of sound because one of the things to me that is a little bit of a role about voters is they always know a lot less about the procedural stuff. But not this group. This group, like, totally knew what was happening in Nevada, and I have been completely flummoxed by what it is. So Let’s listen to voters talk about why it is they do understand what’s going on in the state right now.

It’s on the news constantly. There constantly talking about on the news. But the reality is is that people don’t take their time to really find out the details about it. They hear the gist about it, but of them probably don’t know the primaries this day, the caucuses this day, they just don’t take the time to do it. And so when I know the strategy and reasoning behind it, However, when you think of it from the layman’s perspective or someone who is not as involved in this, you may have disenfranchised some people from doing it because they don’t understand the process.

And the reality is is they’re not gonna go out and figure it out.

Well, we have a couple of generations. Again, cannot change your damn light bulb. It does no simple basic questions. It doesn’t know what’s going on outside their little world outside their little bubble, but it came back ballot. Yeah.

With Nicki Haley’s name on top. Trump’s not there. That’s what happened to me. First Trump. I immediately looked at it and find out what’s going on.

Oh, he’s doing a is. I get to understand it. But a lot of people do not have enough common sense to be able to look and understand and read and find out what’s going on out there.

I think Nikki Haley did not wanna in a caucus situation. She would have been on the losing side when Trump chose the caucus because he gets the delegate. She didn’t wanna go up against it. She can claim, oh, I won in the primary, but the primary no delegates. It doesn’t do anything for her beyond being rights.

I think it was kind of powered move on her part and a brilliant move on his.

Alright. So here’s the thing. So these are two time Trump voters. Right? So they’re Republicans who care about voting in the Republican primary slash caucus, and they clearly understand the rules, but they don’t think anybody else is gonna understand what’s going on.

So tell us what’s going on, John. Help us understand why is this happening like this?

Well, I Will Saletan found it quite humorous during that, focus group, but I watch the whole thing. The second guy he heard speaking, I think his name is talking about how all these people don’t know how to change a light bulb, etcetera, It’s the same guy who thinks two thousand mules is the gospel and is is is a documentary to be believed. So To some extent, we all live in our own little bubble. Right, Sarah Longwell they really live in their bubble. But I was as surprised as you were that they seem to understand and that they had the the the right entity to blame for the confusion, which is the state Republican party.

I thought they would have taken the line that it’s the Democrats or us evil folks in the media. But the the other guy who spoke is right, all of the media here has tried to explain this to to folks to try to clear up the confusion. So this all started in twenty twenty one. Our legislature meets every other year, one led by the late Harry Reed The the Democratic controlled legislature decided to change from a caucus, which we had long been to a primary, mainly after the nightmare that had happened in in Iowa, in the previous cycle. And also because they thought it would help Nevada in its bid to become first And this current cycle didn’t quite work out because the president wanted to repay South Sarah Longwell, but but we did move up, to second.

So That was bipartisan, by the way. There were a handful of Republicans in each house, and there’s only a handful of Republicans in the Nevada legislature these days who voted for it understood the logic. In fact, the current chairman of the state Republican Party back in twenty fifteen was part of an effort, unsuccessful back then to change us from a caucus to a primary state. Why? Because there’s more participation in a primary.

But at some point, A light bulb went off and in the state Republican Party headquarters probably turned on if I could continue the bad metaphor by the Trump campaign saying everyone’s gonna get a ballot. It’s a universal mail ballot state. Now who knows what’s going to happen? Can’t you control this for us? Can’t you do a caucus.

That law that was passed Sarah Longwell the parties to decide how to apportion their delegates by whatever method they wanted but they didn’t just decide to hold a caucus. They sued the state, tried to stop the state from holding a Republican primary. They lost that. So then what they did is they essentially extorted the campaigns by saying you need to pay us fifty five thousand dollars for participate in the caucus and not only that, but you can’t be on the primary ballot if you participate in in the caucus. So what happened immediately, I’m almost done.

I promise is that Oh, this is good. Is that Vivic immediately said, I’m in. I’m in for the caucus. This is the right thing to do. DeSantis said, I’m I’m going to be in the caucus as well.

And then Trump, of course, and by the way, Michael Mcdonner, who I mentioned is the state chairman is a total trump a file. They go way back, and so was the whole state party. So he was in the tank for trump. Everyone saw what was going on. And by the time the deadline came up, Nikki Haley’s folks essentially said, well, it’s not worth doing this.

It’s gonna be fixed for draw. Which by the way, DeSantis realized a little bit too late and never back down was actually quoted as saying it was fixed for Trump. So Haley filed in the primary along with a couple of other candidates. I believe Mike Pence and Tim Scott when they were in the race also filed for the primary. And so Now we have this situation where Republican voters are confused.

A lot of people are already voting in the primary, which isn’t until the sixth, but we have a week of early voting before that. And so tens of thousands of Republicans have voted by mail. And in person, And so they’re so worried now that Trump folks and the state party that they’re urging people to vote for none of the above, which you mentioned, earlier is on the ballot and the primary, but not the caucus because you wouldn’t want Trump to be embarrassed by having to see people not voting for him and so they’re they’re running a campaign so Haley won’t win, and that none of the above will win. I doubt that’s going to happen, but it’s possible.

This is the wildest thing I’ve ever heard of. Part of what’s funny about it to me is the idea of, like, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley and Mike Pence, it’s actually a perfect metaphor for what’s happening in the Republican Party. It’s like, there’s a fake primary over here with fake Republican candidates that, like, the majority of the party doesn’t want. And then there’s, like, Caucus over here for what is, like, Ron DeSantis and Vivic, which is basically what eighty five percent of the party wants And so, like, that’s the real Republican primary. And that’s the one that awards delegates.

Like, why would you do the primary when there’s no chance of getting any delegates?

So I I think there is an answer to that, actually. And and I talked to a lot of smart Republican operatives here at at at the time that this happened Nevada only has twenty six delegates. Right? So you need twelve hundred fifteen, I believe, to get the nominations. So it’s a very small number of delegates at stake.

And you know how crazy it is, how we in the media cover presidential races. It’s if you win Iowa, that that’s great. You’ve got momentum, and then if you win New Hampshire and you get it And so it’s all about momentum and media coverage. If Nikki Haley were smart, she would have realized, look. I’m I’m probably going to be being big trouble in South Carolina after my showing in in New Hampshire, but I can get some momentum out of Nevada by making a big deal out of this primary.

There’s gonna be a headline, Sarah Longwell the night of February sixth, it’ll be going across all the cable networks. It’ll say Haley Winds, Nevada, primary. Now Which

is two days before the caucus, by the way.

Two days before the caucus. Instead, she has taken swipes at Nevada said it’s not a fair process, which of course is true. And so if she had had any organization at all here, she could have prevented none of the above from eventually putting up a good showing. She gets some momentum out of Nevada going to South Carolina. And by the way, and I have been doing this a lot on social media just because I’m a sadists that hurt.

I keep saying all these tens of thousands of Republicans reporting and pour down and trump doesn’t have one fault. He doesn’t have a fault. There’s no right in possibility. He’s not getting votes. And, you know, it’s gotta be driving Trump crazy that that Haley’s going to get this headline.

So Everyone says it doesn’t count, it could have counted for something for Haley. I think whether it will or not, it doesn’t look like it now. But I don’t think the delegates are nearly as important in the early states as getting momentum, getting the media to say that you’re still in the in the race. Super Tuesday is when, like, after delegates are are given out. So it doesn’t really matter unless you really believe there’s gonna be a contested convention getting the baddest twenty six delegates.

John, this is why I love talking to you because, of course, Nikki Haley should have done this play. Of course, she should have put an effort into Nikki Haley wins the primary. You’re right. It’s two days before the actual caucus. Chico got a bunch of headlines that Nikki Haley wins the Republican primary.

I mean, here’s the thing. I literally do this for a living, and I am only really getting my head around what is happening in Nevada, as I prepped for this episode, I just knew something weird was happening.

And

so that means no voters know that. And so, yeah, you’re just getting the headlines that say, Nikie Haley Winz Republican primary in Nevada going into her home state when you’re right. Momentum is the only thing that matters. And part of it is right now, she is in a battle for can she make it to Super Tuesday? Does she get enough money?

Does she have enough donors saying, look, I wanna see you play this thing out that they’re willing to invest in her And so to do that, she needs some good headlines. She needs some media cycles. That’s all there is to play for.

But she has no organization, but it’s even more than what I said. I think, sir, because she could’ve not only gotten that headline. She could’ve been here giving a victory speech and said, don’t pay attention to what’s about to happen in two days. That’s fixed. For Trump by his allies.

It’s gonna have very low turnout. It’s not meaningful. I just got eighty thousand votes or whatever. Trump’s gonna get you know, a few thousand votes in a caucus. Who is the power here?

I am. Let’s go on to South Carolina. You know, no one’s paying me to be Nikki Haley’s consultant, but it seems obvious to me.

You should be. Somebody should be listening to you. This is this may so much sense to me. You know, people do not put enough of a premium on narratives. It’s like these political pros they seem to know it, but nobody fights for the narrative, and the narratives where it’s at.

And the early going, it’s all about the narrative. Right? No one’s keeping a delicate count now because the delicate account doesn’t look terrible for her or not. The narrative is everything in the early states, and so I think they just made a real strategic mistake here.

She’s not gonna win the whole Like, who cares about the delegates? Like, she should be playing for, like, a better outcome, a more positive outcome, a a going more of a distance with him. And so this seems like a perfect way to play that probably wouldn’t have cost nearly as much money. And, you know, little organization, little effort. It’s sort of like, that’s all she had to do.

This is good stuff, John. This is good stuff. Okay. So I wanna get to these how these voters then, like, they are making strategic choices about how they’re gonna vote. And I will say again one of the other crazy things about this they can vote in both.

They can vote in both. So let’s see here how people are strategically deciding whether and how they’re gonna vote?

Obviously, I’m going to vote in the caucus because I’ll be voting for Trump. But I am also, since we get to do it, I’m going to go for the primary voting to check none of the above. Because I think Trump made the right choice going for delegates, but I’m not gonna give it away to Haley to say it. I went on the primary way. If I can do anything to help get rid of that, I will.

When I first saw that Trump was not on the ballot, I hold on. What’s going on? So I immediately googled it like everybody else did, and then I realized, okay, they’re gonna hold a caucus. Okay then. Makes sense.

What gets me is that, on the ballot, it says that other candidates that are on there, that I don’t want. On the very bottom, it says, order none of the above. Well, I’m gonna click none of the above if Trump is not on there.

Okay. So It’s funny. Nikki Haley’s team doesn’t seem to understand the narrative win, but these trump voters seem to understand the opportunity for a narrative win, and they are there to try and deny her that. So can you just explain the none of these candidates option? Like, why does Nevada have that?

Because that’s not a thing that happens at other places. And has that made a big difference in elections before? Tell us.

So we have it because we’re super weird to go back to your introduction. And and it’s been it’s been around for a little under fifty years now, I believe, in Nevada. It it’s problematic in that it has no teeth. In other words, even if none of the above were to win an election, that doesn’t mean there’s a new election, the second place finisher. Gets it.

It’s never won a major election. However, the Democrats didn’t put up a candidate for governor here in twenty fourteen. So it won, and then the second place finisher ever was a nobody got crushed in the general election by the Republicans. And by the way, I’m not gonna go through that. Terrible strategic air by the Democrats, and they got crushed up and down the ticket in twenty fourteen because they didn’t put anybody up.

But none of the above, you know, when they passed it, it was like we need to let people have a place to vent. And and and if they don’t like either candidate, And so it has existed for a while. It never gets that big a percentage. I mean, low single digit, Sarah, in major racist. Very unusual for it to get more.

It’s going to get more in that primary. Whether this campaign that they’re running proves viable or not hard to tell the governor though. Who has been a little bit all over the map on Trump in the past. He said during a debate during the the governor’s race, he was a sound president. Trump went not threatened to withdraw his endorsement.

Then he said he was a great president and the greatest president, but he hadn’t really endorsed And then he endorsed Trump a couple weeks ago and said I am going to vote caucus for Trump, but I am going to vote in the primary too because I wanna keep my perfect voting record. In fact, I’m gonna vote for none of the above. And so you get the highest elected Republican in the state So, essentially, I’m doing this. Maybe others, will do it. They’re not spending a lot of money in paid media or anything trying to convince people, but it’s clearly sunk in.

But what was interesting about that focus group, and this occurred to me beforehand might be a problem, is there were some apathy in other words, Why would I go vote in the primary or even send in a ballot if I’m not voting for anybody? Like, why just do that just to vote for none of the above? One other interesting thing that happened this week, and I don’t know if you saw this, sir, is that Trump camp actually accused the state government, the democratic secretary, of state of election interference because on the primary ballot, it says warning you can’t vote more than once. As you mentioned, they can vote in the caucus as well. They said, oh, they’re trying to drive down the turnout, which of course is asinine.

There was a state law that says you have to print on every sample ballot learning people that they can’t do. It’s a standard template. And so they’re trying to gin this up in any way that that that they can. I have frankly no idea, and I don’t say that very often, sir. How well this is going to work none of the above, but it’s hard for me to believe and a lot of these mail ballots were sent in before they started this campaign that people are going to take the time to vote for none of the above.

But if they do, If they do, and if it’s a huge swamping of Nikki Haley and that none of the above wins, then that’ll be a great headline promptly.

Yeah. He’s literally made now a second, very good case for why Nikki Haley should have thought about playing here. Not just because she could have claimed victory, but, like, What does that do to her momentum to actively lose to none of the above in the primary process? Cause that will also be a headline. Let me tell you what political reporters are starved for right now.

And it is fun political stories. And, like, Nikki Haley losing to none of the above because Donald Trump people turned out just to vote against her. That is a bad headline for her, a bad news cycle. Cause then, now two days later, he gets the good headlines of winning the caucus, And then, well, I bet the next headlines are about how she’s down twenty points in South Sarah Longwell. And she could have headed that off.

That is a big strategic misstep. You are right. So you were talking about Joe Lombardo, the governor. And it’s funny because the last time I had you on, I was just remembering this. I was telling you how some people in our office kinda called him a Secret Podcast Republican, but he too has been forced to bend the knee in the most performative ways, including leading the none of the above charge, against Nikki Haley, which is so depressing for me that somebody like Lombardo who I think probably wasn’t deep down, the biggest trump fan, you know, finds himself being the main vessel for sort of leading the charge against his one.

I’m not gonna call her a viable opponent, but, the one opportunity to kind of take him on.

It is. And you eludes this. It’s emblematic of what’s going on in the Republican Party. Right now, you either as you say bend the knee or the base is going to come after you. Now, one bird is not even up, until twenty six, of course, because he just got elected And that he he is more of a normie Republican, but it’s even lander than that.

You know, he was a sheriff, career cop, He hadn’t thought much about these issues. So and he has these political concerns around him, and I don’t think they wanted to be bothered by the the pummeling from the Trump folks and all the rest of us so they just just do this. Let’s just get get it done, endorse the guy, and we can move on with the business of the state that they care more about. You know, not letting the Democrats get a super majority in the legislature rendering him irrelevant. And so let’s play this game and let’s move beyond it.

But I don’t believe that’s who Jolin Barto is. In fact, Sarah Longwell don’t wanna believe her this if you wanna go on to other things. No. You go ahead and Okay. Lombardo, I interviewed Lombardo down at the Texas Tribune Festival a few months ago.

And I asked him about the Trump stuff again. And he said, essentially, and we did a story out, on on this, and people could look at them about independent site. Am I allowed to do shameless promos and Please do. And and and he said as a former law enforcement guy, the indictments of Trump really gave him pause. Which is a natural thing for a former sheriff’s sake.

And then suddenly that’s all forgotten and and and he embraces it. And so To me, that kind of thing is depressing because I don’t think his full throated endorsement of Trump is who Jo Lombardo really is. But we can say that we can fill in the blank there with Republicans that you and I might have respect for. Think our our normies or or or whatever, but have bent the knee. And I I bet it it it privately, Lombardo is not thrilled to have to have done.

Yeah. I I agree. So I wanna hear from a couple of these, again, two time trump voters on the possible Trump second term. So I’ve been beating the drum in recent weeks. I had a piece in the New York Times, the former Trump officials need to speak out about what they saw while they work with him, and the dangerous ways that Trump would try to wield power if he held office again.

But we asked these voters about, you know, his retribution, rhetoric, and the loyalty tests for the next Trump administration. And they were like a feature and not a bug for the voters that we talked to. Let’s listen.

What his team wasn’t able to do was weed out a lot of those people that shouldn’t have been there to begin with. And now he’s had more time. To see who are these people really and for his team to say who are these people really. I think that vetting process this time will be far better than it was the first time. That’s my hope anyway.

I think the second time around Trump gets in, not that he’s gonna be walking on egg shells, but he’s gonna be Karen a big stick behind him just like, back in the day as the old saying goes, walk lightly, but carry a big stick and, to take care of, I shouldn’t say taken care of, but but, the pick is a cabinet members more wisely where there is an actual male and where there’s an actual female, there’s not portraying it to be something else that they’re not. Of course, you know, a little soft subject there, but I think this next time around trunk gets in, be better the second time around. Flows up the dog on boarders, release our energy underneath our feet. It’s been documented so many times. We’ve got a more oil underneath our feet in the continental US than the saudis do and get back to the energy and independence of the strong nation, become America again.

Okay. I just wanna say for the record that there was somebody laughing, in the group that has a laugh that sounds suspiciously similar to mine, but it is not me laughing. I was not laughing at any of those things? John, you said to me, you know, you’re a little depressed after watching the focus group before the show. Did the Republican voters you listened to, the Trump voters sound like, yeah.

This is how people sound here in the state, or were you kind of like, Oh, man. It’s worse than I thought. Like, what did you think when you heard these voters?

Well, I found some of it probably too far to go use the word heartening, but Some of them actually had thought certain things through. This is true to some extent on the left, but it’s different with Trump and his base. They’re impervious to arguments that go counter to the narrative that they want to believe and they don’t wanna listen to anything else. But then there are are are those who, you know, you heard several references during those focus groups sleepy Joe sleepy Joe and They like that. I think that’s funny.

And they don’t like Biden, and they think their their lives are not as good under Biden as they were under Trump, but they can’t put their finger on exactly what Biden has done to make their live work. It’s like the economy, and it was mentioned that we have the highest unemployment rate in the country but it’s still very low. You know, it’s it’s around five percent now. I think we were hard hit by COVID. People here got crushed, Sarah Longwell.

Las Vegas strip, which controls the economy shut down. Unemployment was thirty percent. People were really suffering. We have come back a lot. But this goes to the core problem that I think Biden has.

And these are not swing voters. Right? These are people who are all gonna vote for Trump again, but even with, swing voters, It’s the perception trumping reality. Right? The reality is the economy has gotten much better.

Whether it’s because of Biden or naturally, it had to get much, but it doesn’t matter. But people believe this that the one person talked about how you can’t afford groceries anymore. Things that are real to people, and then they extrapolate that. Things are going badly because of Biden. And then, you know, Biden’s numbers are terrible.

Whether it’s all self inflicted or or partly because people just believe that narrative, not not not worth having that discussion. It is what it is or it’s just a polo that came out today and polls are are worth not that much now to me that showed Biden is losing in all the swing states including Nevada. We’re a long way from the election, but I guess when I watched that to go back to your to original question, I was like a politician there answering all kinds of questions except the one you asked, with you, which is that I I wasn’t that surprised, but you wanna yell sometimes at at these folks. They’re not done. But they don’t wanna hear it anymore.

They don’t wanna hear things that are different than what they the validation culture that they are part of, wants them to believe or has caused them to believe. Obviously, the point of having a focus group like that is not to argue with the people, but to see how they feel But I felt that, like, as I was yelling through my computer screen, if they heard me, maybe they would listen to me. But that’s just not happening. People aren’t listening anymore. And Sarah, that’s the curious thing about what you do, what I do, we try to enlighten, we try to illuminate, we try to show people what’s happening, and that’s why, you know, you’re kind of plea in the New York Times say something, tell people, you know, what you saw and, you know, at the revolution, so to speak, I you can’t get frustrated, right, because of what we do, we believe in what we do.

You can’t say I’ve done I’m I’m gonna give up. I’m gonna surrender. I never feel that way. But it can be frustrating. So sorry.

I got up on my soapbox there a little bit. Yeah.

That’s okay. I mean, obviously, I do these groups to understand what do people hear. What is breaking through. And I think one of the reasons that I I feel the need to sort of make these pleas for others to speak out is I think they are frustrated. You know, I think the John Kelly’s of the world, they feel like wait, I did say something, and no one seems to care, and it doesn’t seem to break through.

And I I feel like I I spend a lot of time trying to argue to people about how much the rhythms of campaigns and communication has changed, that the idea of saying something in the Atlantic and expecting that, like, these voters that you’re listening these focus groups are gonna hear it is just unrealistic and that, like, you have to have a campaign mentality and really go directly to these voters and kind of in a relentless way for them to hear it. And I think my hope is that some of these folks who did see it up close will have out of a sense of the threat that they perceive to be real, because they saw it. They will also find a sense of duty to try to make that a relentless campaign. And I know it is frustrating to feel like Wow. I’m I’m sitting here telling you that I worked for the guy, and it was the most dangerous thing I’ve ever seen.

And he’s such a threat to America, but no one seems to be listening to me. I mean, I think it is it’s frustrating to a lot of people. One of the things I I like about listening to voters, and I very much agree, I do not think, that they’re stupid. I think that they have lived experiences that are pretty far from the analysis that, you know, we get caught up And one of the things, like, in this group that I thought was was revealing. I was like, oh, I’d never thought about this is how unbelievably irritated people in Nevada are about Californians.

Like, you wanna talk about invasion? They feel like they are being invaded by the Californians. Let’s listen.

There are large sections of Reno, like, where our brewery is at that the homeless have just taken over. It’s a constant problem as we’re trying to keep our business going. And we’re trying to deal with this homeless issue, and we have this woke mayor from California that for some reason the people elected. And she thinks it’s funny. We’re being invaded by people from California.

And it’s ironic to me that they leave their state because they don’t like the taxes They don’t like the crime. They don’t like living there, but they wanna continue to persist creating the same policies in this state. So they’re just trying to create another California and I know that there are many people like me that are saying we won’t be here much longer.

California. Everywhere I look when I’m out driving around doing my errands, I see a lot of California plates and or I see new and Nevada plates, but you can tell from the California because the stickers with their trimmer license plate, and they still drive fricking idiots over here in Las Vegas. And again, this has been called Little California here. If you wanna escape California because the ship is sinking. All the rats are leaving the boat.

Okay. Don’t bring your politics and your ideals and our ideology and all your BS, quite frankly, from California, come here squad in Las Vegas and destroy this city and this town, this state. Keep going. Even Texas put up signs, hey, into Texas fine, but keep going.

All my neighbors are from California. I mean, they’re retired. All of them are are from what I can tell and talking to them, registered Republicans. They left for many of the reasons I feel most of us probably agree with or live by. And I don’t know whether to thank them or not thank them.

You know, I mean, cost of my property continues to go up because they come here and pay cash.

Okay. It’s a big California invasion. So, listen. So Nevada’s been a swing state for a long time, like, decades. But Republicans have struggled to win there.

Barack Obama won it by six points in twenty twelve. Trump lost it by two point four percent in both twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. And one of the few bright spots for the Nevada GOP was the governor’s race in twenty twenty two with Lombardo, which we talked about, the Republicans, they still coughed up that winnable senate seat for Cortez masto. So the supposed sort of California influx notwithstanding, and I wanna know from you whether you that it’s true, that it feels like little California there. But there’s a lot of important demographic groups in Nevada, particularly Hispanic who are moving toward the GOP.

So why do you think that the Republican Party has struggled so much to win statewide, say, for that governor’s race? And do you think the Reed Machine is breaking down still creaking along. Tell me.

So there’s a lot in there to kind of break down. Let me address the California thing first because some of it is real And some of it, again, to go on the light motif, what we’ve been talking about is a narrative. For instance, the first voice there, you talk about the woke mayor that they have up in Reno from California. He’s referring to Hillary Sheavey, who was born and raised in Reno. So this has become a stand in for anybody who seems a little bit progressive to that.

But another one pointed out, there’s a counterweight to that. There are Californians who are, for lack of a better, verb escaping the high tax environment of California to come to Nevada. They tend to be quite conservative, and they have helped hold the state, I think. And you said some of the numbers there slightly rightward, and you have seen a lot of national studies that show demographically how that’s changed and how the results of the elections have changed. And So a little California, the once was a legislator, by the way, very conservative legislator who introduced a bill to rename the state East California.

And that was fifteen years ago probably that this narrative has been around for a long time, and but it cuts both ways. The things that you mentioned though that I think are really salient for this election is, Hispanic potentially moving towards the Republicans and what are the Read machine is still around. Can it do the job again? You know, it’s interesting. One thing we haven’t mentioned, and one of the reasons the Republicans have not done well here, is candidates still matter.

Then they lost that senate race that they should have won probably because Adam Lacksol is an absolutely terrible candidate. I mean, you can use choice on the ballot if you’re a Democrat, But very rarely do you have a Republican caught on tape saying Roe versus Wade was always a joke and have that played the ten thousand gross rating points for months. Right? They they put up terrible candidates in general. Lombardo, when they will put him up, and he barely won while Black Salt barely lost.

The Republicans here in the States, and we gotta change this dynamic. We gotta find someone with the Southern Nevada, Las Vegas based The sheriff down there who looks like a governor, Lombarda looks like a governor to cut into the Democratic margin in Clark County which to get back to the string here is where the Hispanic vote is huge and where the Reed Machine has been able to create what I’ve called for years a firewall against what happens in the rest of the state. That is what happened. Lombardo was able to cut into the margin in Clark County of the Democratic governor, Steve Syslack, that’s how he won the race. What’s happening with Hispanics is a little, more complicated than I think.

And you know this as well as anybody. No demographic group is monolithic, but it’s especially true with the Spanish. There are some very conservative Catholic, Hispanic, And there are there is there is a misunderstanding, I think, by a lot of people including political operatives, about what’s really important to Hispanic. Oh, immigration must be the number one issue. It’s not.

The economy is. A lot of them believe what you heard some of those folks there say and what is pervasive that, you know, things have not improved. What did the Democrats send for me lately? Are they taking me for granted? There was polling though, sir.

I will I will say Early on in twenty twenty two and maybe even into the summer that showed Catherine Cortezmaster, who, by the way, is the first Latina ever elected to the US Senate lagging in the Hispanic vote and Latsault was claiming they were gonna get close to fifty percent or at least into the forties. By the end, this is a change that has occurred almost every election season in Nevada. Hispanic tend to make up their minds later than most voters. And so the efforts by the culinary union, by the Reed Machine to get out for Catherine Cortez Master paid off, and she ended up getting not quite the numbers that have been seen in the past, but better than what Biden got. But I still think it’s problematic, and I still think they’re worried about it.

And you’ve had some prominent Hispanic voices, conservative, talk radio hosts who have who have been spreading the message for Trump and for the Republican. So I think that is problematic, and I think there was a clear eyed Republican who just told me this morning. Two months ago, I would have said this is still a lean Biden state. I think it might be lean trump now. And this is not a person who loves Trump, and I wrote a piece that apparently according to you, no one saw in the Atlantic.

Not no one. I read the Atlantic. So

I’m kidding. But, well, in which I said, listen, I don’t think Trump is out of here by bubble digits. But the Democrats here are worried about some of these demographic changes that that that have occurred, and they are. And so the Reed Machine, despite the passing of Harry Reed, in twenty twenty one still exists. The same people are running the REIT machine word before.

They know what they’re doing, but now they have lost what is a been a key feature for them, every presidential cycle, which is they had the governor. And the governor here has immense power Lombardo has building his own machine with some very smart people. Can they compete? And so it’s going to be very interesting to watch the senate race is going to govern some of that too. Oh,

okay. So you you walked into my transition. So let’s talk about the senate race. Because there is a twenty twenty four Senate race, and one of the main candidates on the Republican side is Jim Marv Shant. Who came within two points of winning the secretary of state job in twenty twenty two.

He is a top tier election denier, even saying All of Nevada’s elected officials since two thousand six have been installed by the Deep State cabal. K. Predictably, the Trump voters we talked to were not put off by that. They were even a bit sympathetic. Let’s listen.

I think they’re entitled to their opinion. It doesn’t bother me at all. I would be looking at everything else that he says and does. I’ve seen some things with Nevada elections. We do absolutely have a lot of corruption here.

There’s no question. It’s always been that way. It’s the norm. It’s how Nevada works. But if they wanna deny it, let them deny it.

It’s a big deal. Look at what he could do or what he won’t do.

My wife works at these election booths, you know, with these pop up tents. You see them like in Lowe’s parking lot, what have you. And she’s seen time and time again home caregivers will be reeling in someone that’s incontinent. They can’t speak for themselves. What have you?

But they’ll roll them up to the booth and the home caregiver will tell, okay, you pick this person and you pick that person. Guess who they are picking. What that person wants. Of course. A Democrat.

And it’s like, how can that be fair? The person’s incompetent, and the person can’t think for him or herself Why told me that there’s been many, many instances. They see the same person over and over and over again within the same day or group of people doing the same thing.

I think there’s a lot of questions about the last Senate campaign because I live in Northern Nevada in Sparks, outside Irino, and you know, when I went to bed at one o’clock in the morning, it looked like the Republican had won the election, and then we wake up in the morning and they mysteriously counted a lot of ballots in Las Vegas that suddenly turned the election over, to the current senator who’s a total piece of crap. Know that there were a lot of people that just said, how the hell does that happen? I mean, you know, Vegas is as big as they are. They can’t count their votes as fast as other counties can. And again, they should have been able to, but it was amazing how the election flipped in a few hours, you know, and I think that led to a lot of skepticism.

I know of a person who gets the ballots for his entire family. He has kids that are now over eighteen, and he votes all the ballots. Obviously, if I know one person that does that it’s clear that anybody could do that over. They could get them in an elderly home, and they could get all the ballots together and vote. There’s no security there.

How do you know who’s put their signature on that ballot, even though they sign it, you don’t know. If you go in person, it’s tough to cheat.

John Ralston, how corrupt is Nevada?

Now you know why I was so depressed that they’re watching that was the worst part of it. I mean, listen, Nevada’s had very good record in terms of running clean elections. But this issue of the that people went to bed thinking the Republicans were ahead, and then suddenly the Democrats did well. The reason that they did well was because of the mail ballots, that came in after election day. The law here, which Some people think needs to be changed now because of this conspiracy theories that have been started by by Trump and his enablers and others that they should just make sure everything is counted.

The culinary ran a mail ballot campaign. The read machine ran a mail ballot campaign and and they come in several days afterwards, but the perception is. And by the way, Nevada does take a long time to count the balance. And and and that has been frustrating for all those East Coast elitist media folks who just wanna get the better, you know, finish counting. And I get all that, as well as frustrating for us trying cover it, but there’s no evidence of widespread corruption.

You know, first of all, I was not aware until I watched this focus group that if you were incontinent, that means you also have lost your ability to think and talk. But apparently, that’s what someone thinks incontinence. And of course, people talk to their home health care workers Ron DeSantis is who I wanna vote for. I’m not able to push the bundle because you please. All of that is nonsense.

But again, this is the worst thing that happened in twenty twenty, and I can’t stop talking about it or thinking about it because it bothers me so much is the undermining of people’s faith in the election. I mean, you’ve still you’ve seen the poll seventy percent of Republicans think that the twenty twenty election was rigged and and you could sit down with each person and try to exert some, common sense and say, You understand the kind of conspiracy that will be needed to rig an election. How many people would have to be involved? Of course, there’s fraud. Of course, things falls through the cracks.

But, you know, a father with four kids who are, voting age, and the kids are so apathetic. I don’t care. I don’t care. That’s not broad. I mean, so it’s, like,

in very imperfect civic duty, I would say.

About about that. The bottom line is is that there’s no evidence of widespread fraud in Nevada. They brought a bunch of cases here that that were thrown out. And and so It’s frustrating. Again, I’m using that word, Sarah, but I I wasn’t that surprised to hear some of the things that these folks were saying even though they’re easily disproven.

But, you know, when people talk about the threat to democracy that’s going on in this country, people say, oh, you’re being melodramatic and I have friends who say that too. But if people don’t believe that their vote counts or they believe that there is some deep state or some kind of conspiracy changing your votes or not counting your votes, that’s the end. Yeah. That is the end. And It’s, you know, I’ve been doing this for, you know, thirty five plus years.

I’ve always believed in the system, and I and it’s been frustrating to me as you see the alienation of voters from politicians and from government. But Trump took advantage of that, and then he brought it to its eight pecs in twenty twenty, but I don’t blame him as much as I blame all of the folks who should have been leaders Instead of enabling him, stood up and said, this is wrong. Even a guy like Joe Lombardo, even though he said Biden won the election, he should have been more forceful. They have a responsibility to do that, and that is why this persists, almost four years later because of all these people who are afraid to actually say what they know to be true.

Alright. That is well said, so I’m gonna add nothing to it. But before I close, I just want you to tell me. So Jim Marshawn, you and I lamented his potential winning of the Secret Podcast race because he would’ve been in charge of counting votes, but now he wants to run for senate. So just give me your horse race analysis of his chances of being the nominee and then winning.

First of all, let me just say real quickly and you said it right before you played it, that every election that he has said since two thousand and six has been rigged, here in Nevada. He was elected to the assembly after two thousand and six. Anyway, he’s one of the worst conspiracy theorists. He’s come up with so much nonsense. I think all he does is appear on Steve Bannon Show in the exchange nonsense.

I thought there was a real danger for the Republicans of him winning that primary. I think so less now. He’s raised on money. He hasn’t done much. And so Sam Brown, who is the chosen candidate of national Republicans is likely to win.

I I don’t think it’s impossible to Marshawn wins But if Marshawn wins, by the way, Sarah, in a in an upset, the Republicans won’t spend a dime here because he has no chance to win the general election, Jackie Rosen, who was the incumbent. Her numbers aren’t great, but she hasn’t been around that long. She’s not nearly a season a a politician as Catherine Cortez Maso was so a legitimate candidate is going to have a chance against her. But it shows What the Reed Machine has been able to do through the years in getting people into office that the Republican bench for the US Senate here was so thin that their dream candidate is a guy who barely has been in Nevada for a cup of coffee and has never won an election. This is who they’re banking on.

And this maybe is a good place to conclude. Maybe there’s a state of affairs here in this purple state that he could win.

Okay. Well, that’s a little depressing to end on, but I gotta say, John Ralston, it is so fun to talk to you. I love it when people just, like, know so much about their place and you the most. I learned so much in this conversation. I hope you guys did too.

John Ralston, thank you so much for joining us, and thanks to all of you for listening to the Focus Secret Podcast. Remember to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts and subscribe to the Bulwark on YouTube. It helps us out a lot. We will see you next time.