S4 Ep15: It’s Not That Hard to Win Iowa (with J. Ann Selzer)

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Focus Group podcast. I’m Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and we are here to guide you through the beginning of real voting in this presidential primary, which begins in Iowa. Which could end up being the first and last date that matters in this presidential primary, but we shall see. Now, people who are looking for an case for a non Trump candidate will tell you something like this? Sure.

The national polls show a massive lead for Trump, but it’s a little narrower in early states. Sometimes I’m one of these people. Trump is leading by fifty two points in the national real clear politics average as of this taping. But if you zoom into Iowa, home of the first in the nation caucuses, Trump is leading by only thirty three points. So that’s the hopeful part.

But, oh, boy, did our Iowa focus groups tell you why Trump is leading by such a large margin? My guest today is a living legend in the state of Iowa and in our office full of political nerds, Jay Ann Seltzer, president of the polling firm Selzer and company who is most well known for conducting the Des Moines Register poll, which is the gold standard in Iowa. Anne, thank you so much for being

here. My pleasure.

Oh my gosh. You have no idea how bad I’m gonna fan girl throughout this, podcast. I hope you don’t get embarrassed easily. You are the most rightest best at it, quant person out there, and like, lots of polls come out about Iowa, but everybody’s like, but I need to see what the sales rep poll says, because that’s gonna be the right one. Why are you the rightist?

Why do you do such a good job?

Well, I give credit to my methodology, which has served me well. And the basis of it is to try to adhere as much as I can to traditional science and the idea that I don’t try to make any assumptions about what the future electorate might look like. Because in social science, we say that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, but the cells are caveat as until there’s change. And so a lot of pollsters model a likely voter or a likely Coccasco are based on what’s happened in the past, and I don’t do that. I take my very best shot at trying to reach every potential likely caucus goer without excluding anyone.

It makes it very expensive. To do, but it enables me to see change when it happens.

Are you aware of the power of your polling. The thing about polls is that they they shape the narrative. And so do you feel an enormous sense of power?

I wouldn’t say that my sensation of it is enormous sense of power. I would say it’s a responsibility. And I’m also just very cognizant. I’m just gonna take my best shot.

Yeah.

And someday, it might not work out. And I’m prepared for that. You know, you have to have a little self conversations about what happens if.

Yeah. Well, I gotta say Bill Crystal walked into my office. And I was like, oh, you know, I’m about to do the podcast with Ann Salzer, which I’m super excited about. And he was like, oh, could you ask her What I just need is for Nikki Haley to beat Ron DeSantis by about six points. And so I was quite certain that’s not a thing that you can just do.

You know, if I were to do it, it would require millions and millions of dollars because that’s the last poll I’m going to do.

Right. That’s right. So a more serious, the quant versus qual. So I’m a qual person. I don’t do polling.

I invite pollsters on sometimes. When you watched the focus groups, having done so much polling of these voters, do you already watch a lot of focus groups, or did you feel like you got something new from listening to these voters work through how they think about the primary?

Well, first of all, I do do focus groups. And so I’m not just strictly a quant person. In fact, we’re recruiting some right now. That will happen later. But what I find interesting is listening to people Think their way through things and better understanding how they have arrived at the positions that they come to.

I think in the group that I watched of Iowa, I think what was most striking was the comfort that they had in saying things that in mixed company, and by that, I mean, a mixed partisan group might not have been said or might have been reacted to. Very differently. So it gives you a little bit of a glimpse into the not just the person, but the community in which the person lives. And I think that’s really helpful So

do you do it that way? Do you do it with people who all voted the same way, or do you mix them up?

Especially with political things. And so I did a fair amount of work for an environmental group that wanted to understand how Republicans think about environmental issues. And I would begin the group by saying, you have some things in common. First of all, I want you all to know that you voted for Donald Trump in the last election. And then there’s like a sigh of relief Like, they think, okay, I don’t have to fight.

I’m not gonna be in a fight.

And this is the entire thing. I to explain this people all the time, they’re like, well, why don’t you push back? Why don’t you put people in the groups who are gonna tell them the truth? And I was like, no, no, no. The best way to do a political focus group, I think, especially with the Republicans, is to let them know it’s a safe space.

That sigh of relief. It’s exactly what happens. And they’re only gonna tell you the truth when they feel like they’re around other people who understand because they do feel judged for things like voting for Trump. And so they don’t like to admit it in mixed company or talk about it somewhat differently depending on what kind of person they are. Right.

And then as a moderator, I might say, okay, Josie. I’m gonna push back on you a little bit. And, obviously, I have different techniques for that than another anticipate might have. But if there are particular things I wanna know about, you know, I let them know I’m going to do that. So they’re How’d you think our moderator did?

I think our moderator did great. I thought she was very good, and I thought there was an easygoingness that, again, I think invites people to feel comfortable, and that’s the most important thing.

It’s the ball game. I love talking about this with you. Okay. So in one interview that you gave recently, you mentioned that the ghost of Rick Santorum whispers in your ear to never say never. So what happened as you pulled the storied Rick Santorum come back, and are you sort of leaving the door open for something similar in this race.

Well, this was twenty twelve. And to say it was a comeback for Rick Santorum is denying the poll reality, which was in every poll we had conducted. There were, you know, a handful of them. It wasn’t dozens and dozens, but he was pulling at four percent five percent, maybe six percent, and yet he wasn’t dropping out. So we’re well aware of it.

The day after our first night, of interviewing my initial reaction to the horse race was, my gosh, Rick Sam Torham is double digits. And it was ten percent or eleven percent. But the next day it was more, and the next day it was more, and the next day it was more. And the average across those four days was just fifteen percent. So he didn’t really on average challenge, but the trajectory was such that that became the story in the registers write up of it.

That Ron Paul was falling and that Mitt Romney was sort of holding, but here came Santorum to be a challenger. And the funny thing was that we went down. This is very early on the Saturday morning that they’re writing the story. And I brought that chart showing the trajectory and the editor’s face, I thought he’d kind of light up, like, wow. This is a great story.

His face fell. Because they’d already done the artwork for the front page, and it did not have Rick Santoreum. The lesson for me is, that was not a good surprise. Yeah. Try not to surprise your editor.

So I guess do you see the potential for that? I mean, I guess the story of Nikki Haley right now is one of modest surging. Right?

Not in our polling. And that was the way that our December poll upended a conventional wisdom that Nikki Haley was a rocket ship on the launch pad ready to go, and we showed no movement. That’s right. And we saw a drop in enthusiasm or her. So that’s one of the things I’m really looking for in this next poll is who is showing positive movement?

Yeah. We can get into that deeper because I have some thoughts on that. But in our focus groups, I wanna get to some of the sound, all but one of the people, in our most recent Iowa focus group, the one that you watch, said they’d support Trump if the caucuses were today. So everybody did, except for one woman. We’ll talk about some of the other candidates, but let’s listen to how people talk about Trump.

Because some of these people, they were just chugging the Magacool Aid, But some of them sort of did see his flaws, but still saw no reason to abandon him. Let’s listen.

I don’t like necessarily how he can sometimes, like, speak to people or treat people or how he can be in that way. But, again, at the end of the day, it’s about the president not a popularity contest, and it comes down to who’s gonna take care of the country the best way.

I just know what Trump offered when he was there last time, and I know we will get the same thing. If I could have the perfect candidate, I’d surely vote for them, but he isn’t coming back yet. So when he comes back, all will be set right. But until then, I’ll take Trump and and what he has to offer.

This is gonna sound bad, but I do like Trump will, like, And, you know, because you are actually bringing out flaws in other people, and a lot of the learning process is, like, painful.

For all, everybody who plans on turning out for Trump in a couple weeks, is there anything that could change your mind at this point

No. No.

Oh, yeah. He’s the best man for the job. He’s already approved it.

Or anything extreme, like he died. Convicted of murder or something like that.

I don’t see anybody else that, just doesn’t hold a candle to Trump.

So murder was the line. That was where people drew it. If he murders somebody in the next few days, they might change their mind to somebody else. So, like, you talked about your recent poll. And in that, Trump was leading by thirty two points in December.

He was at fifty one percent and that DeSantis was at nineteen. Right. Nicki was, like you said, holding steady at sixteen and Vivec was at five. And Trump also had the highest percentage of extremely enthusiastic supporters. So forty five percent compared to sixteen percent for DeSantis and twenty one percent for Haley, So Trump lost the Iowa caucuses in twenty sixteen.

And as the campaigning started for this cycle back in, say, January of twenty twenty three, Did you expect Trump to consolidate support to this degree? Like, how does this caucus stack up against you’ve seen. Is this unprecedented or is this a trajectory you’ve seen before?

Well, he is not the first candidate to crack the fifty percent mark. But those happened earlier in the cycle. This is the latest any candidate has done that and that’s typically been in a field that wasn’t very big. So I think that this is unusual. I give credit to a major overhaul of the Trump campaign that in two thousand sixteen, it was an amateur effort I don’t think that the candidate was taking the Iowa caucuses very seriously, and he didn’t have seasoned campaign staffers.

So our final poll had him in the lead. And I said, you know, this caucus is Trump’s to lose. Well, lose it. He did because the campaign had not organized for a caucus where they’re designed for things to happen in the room. On caucus night, things can change, and they did, and the Ted Cruz campaign.

Were well aware of what happens in those rooms and had precinct captains everywhere and somebody to stand up and speak for the candidate. And that didn’t happen. On the Trump side. So there were lots of other things going on there. And now I’m aware that the Trump campaign has precinct captains in all nearly seventeen hundred precincts.

They’ve got special caps for them to wear, and they’ve been through training. Are they

red and say make America great again? They’re gold.

Oh, okay. So they will stand out from other trump hats.

Great. Of course, they’re gold. Of course, they’re gold. Okay. So when I talk about how much Republican voters loved Trump presidency and how they don’t see much of a reason to move off of them, which is exactly what we heard.

From this group. The biggest thing people ask me is, but Sarah, how can they still be with him after January sixth? And I really wish that this wasn’t the case, but they talk about how January sixth wasn’t Trump’s fault. So let’s listen to how these Iowa voters talk about that.

Basically, what it comes down to is Trump versus the deep state. Right. By the deep state, I’m talking about talking about George Soros, and they have plants in there, like Reyes, who is in that full j six crowd. Inciting the whole thing. It adds up to where, it’s just just really rotten tomatoes in there.

It’s bad.

I don’t think that he is the sole reason as to why this occurred. I mean, I use kid analogies a lot. But for those of you that have children, you ever put one excited child in a room with kids who are maybe just kind of neutral. All of them get excited. All of them get rowdy.

And I feel like that was probably kind of a similar chain of events that happened. No. I don’t think that he was up there using code words to say, like, alright. Team time to attack. Yeah.

He’s a business man. He’s successful, and he’s been doing this for a long time. And there’s a reason why.

It was a bad thing that happened, but I don’t think it was Trump’s fault. From all the news footage that I saw and all the interviews and stuff, even on the day of when Trump was giving his speech and everything. He was very adamant that people remain peaceful.

So this is really consistent for me with what I hear from Republican voters. All the time. Right? They don’t think January six is Trump’s fault, but I guess I’m curious for you, not just the January six piece, but in general, how much people love Trump, how deep their relationship goes him how they’re not moving on from him. When you do focus groups, did this sound representative?

Cause I think it sounds like you do more. This is the second Iowa group I’ve done. I did one in person, with Judy Winter for PBS. But does this sound like how voters you listen to all the time talk about Trump?

Well, not only yes to that question, but in our December poll, we pulled out some things that he had said with quotation marks around them that the respondent couldn’t see, but we want to be very careful in quoting things he had said. Or things that he said he would do. And for most of the items that we tested, and these were designed to be on the inflammatory side. The thing that might give them pause are more likely to say it made them more likely to support. Than less.

Yes.

And I think this is part of what’s happening here. The Democrats can’t fathom. They can’t wrap their mind around it so they dismiss it. And yet the data suggests that all of these things that are happening and all of these things that he is saying is drumming up more support rather than tapping down support.

It’s drumming up more support and also sort of deepening existing support. But I don’t know if when you were doing focus groups and or polling sort early on, if you saw the same thing I did, early twenty twenty three, there was a real opening for a non trump candidate as I was seeing. Like, I saw a lot Ron DeSantis, curious voters. I thought that the the group of sort of move on from Trump voters was like a real thing that could be worked with and built upon And I think maybe it was a mixture of the lack of quality of the opposing candidates, but also There’s just some depth to the relationship with Trump. Like, they voted for him twice.

They seem to know what they’re getting. Right? This is another thing when you talk about what liberals don’t understand. These voters think Trump did a good job. Yeah.

Tell me for you, how have you seen the relationship with Trump change where it seemed like maybe somebody else could get some traction and then that just didn’t happen?

Well, there probably are a hundred reasons why that happened, and maybe some of it is the initial failure to go all in in Iowa. So it takes a consistent and well planned and funded effort, not as expensive as it would be if you were going to Michigan or Florida to start, but What I’ve seen is that the non trump candidates are mostly having their gatherings at a fabled pizza ranch chain. Or in somebody’s living room. They’re not big groups or maybe forty people. And Trump will come in and do a rally with Five thousand, seven thousand, people, and they’re very well organized in terms of getting commitment cards and giving instructions, for what these people are to do to go and get more people.

What I used to say is that it’s not that hard to win the Iowa caucuses. You need to go find forty thousand people, and thirty thousand haven’t been to caucus before. And that’s not that high a bar. To be able to do it. Well, the person that is doing that is Donald Trump.

You know, people said that he had all the votes he was going to get. And that’s not true. And he didn’t take that as true and did invest, and there’s energy behind all of that. So It’s partly what the contenders were up to. Their unwillingness certainly initially to make a persuasive case that Trump needed to not be reelected.

You have to hand it to the Trump campaign and their commitment to they don’t wanna just win. They wanna blow it out.

Yeah. For TV, somebody was like, Trump is deploying surrogates to Iowa. He worried about a Nikki surge, and I was like, No. No. He wants to just, like, end this thing in Iowa.

He would be such a dominating performance that, like, everybody just drops out dead, you know, that it’s over. But can I ask you just on this point about organization? Cause I totally agree with the point you’ve been making, like, Susie Wiles, Chris La Savita, I object to them morally, but, like, they know what they’re doing, and they’re running a very sophisticated campaign this time. But DeSantis had a ton of money, had this vaunted strategy, you know, of, you know, he’s done the full grassley and all that. But, you know, isn’t the point of Iowa supposed to be that they have to do the pizza shop thing.

They have to do the living room thing. Like, it seems like people are mad that Trump isn’t doing that and is still being so successful because that’s what you’re supposed to be doing, but instead by sheer volume, Trump is touching more people than the others.

Yeah. I think that’s right. I can’t confirm that I’ve seen numbers on it, but it seems possible and that they end up being televised There’s not a camera crew at the pizza ranch. You know, so there are ways to watch those rallies even if you’re not in attendance. And I think This part is also not understood so well, which is that Trump, for his supporters, he makes politics fun.

It’s entertaining. You go to the rally. You don’t know what he’s going to say. You’re probably gonna like it. It’s probably gonna make you laugh.

There might be things that make you a little uncomfortable, but that’s part of the show. He has reinvented how to do politics that translate to a grassroots level without doing grassroots.

Yeah. The rules that you think people try to applied to Iowa, because they, right, they still do this where it’s like, well, you gotta go, and everybody tries to make the Iowa quiteness. Like, the news, they’re like, and we stand on this place with this famous shot. So does trump just thrown all of that out? Like, does it feel like there’s like an Earth two primary where people are trying to do the Iowa thing and then trumps over here just doing the trump thing and the trump thing’s winning?

Well, we’ll see next week. There’s always a little bit of a different temperature in Iowa that very final week leading up to the caucuses because something is about to happen that people have been planning for and thinking about and making all their preparations And sometimes I say if you step outside, there’s almost like a pulse. You know, you can almost feel there’s something coming. I haven’t really felt that. And, you know, I paid loose attention to signals of how the campaigns are doing.

I only know where one headquarters is. In Des Moines, and it’s Vivek Ramaswamy. I’ve only seen seven yard signs. One is for DeSantis, and the other six were in front of Ramos Wami’s headquarters. So there’s a lot of things happening that are not visible.

Yeah. And that’s just a change of technology from even twenty sixteen that so much has as invisible to an observer unless you’re part of the clamp.

Yeah. That makes total sense. Alright. Well, let’s talk about what these voters think of the other candidates because these people, they already like Trump a lot. And it was gonna take a pretty great candidate to move them away from him.

And so Nikki Haley’s been getting a lot of media attention lately, including for a comment at an event in New Hampshire sure where she couldn’t say if slavery was the cause of the civil war. So let’s listen to one woman’s reaction to that, followed by some of the more ambivalent reactions to Nikki in general.

I don’t remember exactly what she said. The explanation that she made seemed to make sense and reasonable I think maybe it was blown out of proportion. I’m not really sure. But overall, like, I’m not, like, so mad about it that I’m like, okay, I’m not interested in her anymore.

They will have more control over her than they would over somebody like Trump.

I don’t not like her. That’s kinda like my best way to say it is that I don’t not like her. To be honest with you, I need to probably do more research on her. I have her to speak. I don’t hate it.

Is she maybe strong though to lead our country. No. If she was interviewing for a position at my company, would I hire her? Yes. Do you see what I mean?

So she’s not quite feel like at that level of strength that we definitely need.

She’s not a business woman. But I

Yeah. Right?

She’s not. And that’s that’s what I like about Trump. I was a Ross Perot voter as well because I wanted a businessman. What was that? Twenty years ago.

Right. And, was sad when he didn’t make it in. I just think we need a business person to clean up this mess that we’ve got going on with finances and just everything. And a politician isn’t gonna do that.

I really honestly thought Ron DeSantis would do better. And then, like, Nikki Haley, I think, is a good option. Those are kind of the two for me but I honestly don’t think they have a chance against Trump. So like I said, I think then that’s where you end up voting for trump. I mean, obviously, I think he did a good job Yeah.

He just he is a personality. He is a character.

So that last woman is the only person in the group. Who said she was leaning toward a non Trump candidate, but she still conceded that she would probably vote for trump. And so Nikki has this fifty nine thirty one favorable, unfavorable split in your December poll, but that breaks down as twenty percent very favorable and thirty nine percent mostly favorable. That’s a lot of people who don’t not like her. Right?

It’s like You’re right. So part of the mystique that states like Iowa, New Hampshire have is that the voters are hyper engaged. But these voters, they, like, don’t seem to care quite as much that, like, there were debates coming up, and they still feel like they need to do more research, And these are all people who plan to caucus. So, like, when you say, like, there’s usually a pulse, and now you don’t feel it. I understand you said technology, but is some of it, like, the fate of complete?

Of all that they’re just like, it’s gonna be Trump. We’re all gonna go call this for trump and, like, whatever. Is that what’s happening?

Maybe. And in addition in that poll, and it looks like you have the numbers in front of you, We asked about how enthusiastic you are about your first choice vote. And DeSantis dropped a bit in the top box, which is extremely enthusiastic. Haley dropped from the top two boxes to the bottom two boxes, mildly enthusiastic her percentage grew twenty percentage points. So this is a shift from more enthusiastic than not down to mildly enthusiastic.

And again, that was another sort of failure to launch metric from my view, which is She had people talking her up. And then what happened? They cooled on her. Here’s one of my theories of things,

which is she got the front runner treatment. And so, like, when you get the front runner treatment, you get scrutiny, but also because these other candidates are all fighting for second place, right, they’re not going after Trump They’re going after each other. And so basically what they’re doing, nobody’s really rising a ton. They’re actually just driving down each other’s favorables. Right?

And so, like, there’s no way for anybody to get traction because all they’re doing is hurting each other mutually. Like, the ads that are on the air from Nikki are after DeSantis Ron DeSantis is going after Nikki. Nobody’s going after the front runner who’s fifty, oh, over fifty percent. Like, what is this madness? Explain it to me.

Well, they’re sinking all boats except for the titanic. And that’s not to say that he’s unsinkable, but I think they are Of the idea that they need to persuade people who are for Trump to not be for Trump. And I’ve said from the beginning that’s misguided because his supporters are so locked in twice as many of his supporters say they’re not gonna change their mind. So there’s not opportunity to persuade. The opportunity is to expand the number of people who come to caucus And people don’t realize how few people come to caucus.

So it was a hundred and eighty thousand, roughly, in twenty sixteen, but that was an increase of fifty percent from the previous caucus from twenty twelve. So you have opportunities for inflows of new caucus goers that you don’t have to persuade them to not like Trump. You just need to identify, and you have to think there are thirty thousand of those that are out there. You just have to find them.

You know, DeSantis had all the money. He’s got this haunted ground game. Like, isn’t that what they’re supposed to be doing? Or are you just being too nice to not criticize the DeSantis field team and the Ron DeSantis, but like, that was their one job. Right?

Was to expand the electorate to go get people to be for DeSantis.

Right.

Now do you think that could happen? These could turn up and they’re not showing up in the polling, or do you think that just didn’t happen?

I had a TV crew from Miami in my office last week, maybe the week before, saying that they heard Ron DeSantis campaign was going to knock on one million doors in Iowa. Okay. First of all, that’s a jaw dropping number. Mhmm. And I I raised an eyebrow or both eyebrows.

And he said, you’re skeptical. I said, well, They’re two point one million roughly registered voters in Iowa. So first of all, that’s a big number. So I I don’t know how you do that. Secondly, how are you deploying the resources?

If he’s got all this money, how are you spending it? To get that kind of organization, because I would think if that’s happening, I would see it. You couldn’t miss that kind of massive event. So then I had to wonder, what are they counting as a doorknob? Is that a touch?

Is that a social media outreach? Is that an email comes things that would be invisible.

Right. Did they mean a contact as opposed to, like, physically showing up on a door?

Or if they knock three times. Is that three? I mean, I I don’t know. And I could be proven wrong, but I don’t see how it’s possible to knock on one million doors in Iowa.

Alright. Well, let’s talk about DeSantis a little bit. So let’s talk about other voters talked about Ron DeSantis, because that last woman there said she was disappointed by Ron DeSantis. You know, he was the great anti trump hope a year ago, but the way that people were talking about him in this group, it was like a shell of what they used to say about him. So, like, you said, in your Iowa poll, he had sixty six to twenty nine Fave on fave among likely Republican caucus goers.

That’s good. Those are good favorable numbers. But again, only forty two percent were mostly favorable and twenty four percent were very favorable. So you just as a number you had off the top of your head that I had somebody put together for me, to, to show the decline of intensity in people. So Some people have even though seen DeSantis in their churches, but it felt like a death rattle for his campaign listening to them.

Let’s listen.

He was America’s governor, and Ron DeSantis was an excellent governor. And if he would’ve just, bided his time, you know, twenty twenty eight would have been his time to get in. But I think he jumped the gun here. He got in too quick. And when you’re standing on the stage with six or seven other candidates, and a question is asked, and you look around to see whose hand is up and then you put your hand up.

He’s not a decision maker. He was in the navy, he was a jag, he was basically a lawyer. He was not in a command position. And, you know, I I applaud him for serving his country, but he’s not a decision maker on that level.

I think he did a good job in Florida with COVID. And so I really think that’s why he kind of stood out as being the leading candidate. But then I think clearly a lot of people must not care for him because he’s not doing very well. So I do think that has made me think, well, okay. So he’s probably not gonna be candidate.

He just asked our pastor, hey, I I’m gonna be in Iowa. I just wanna come to church service. Can I come to your church? And that’s what he did. And so for me, the reason I Ron DeSantis is I do know he’s a Christian.

Just knowing that he’s a Christian and knowing it, like, I personally do want a guy that is in the office to be a Christian too. That’s where I’m, like, not against him, but I also don’t know if he’s completely ready yet for this election.

Does it kinda feel in a sense that he just kinda gave up? You know? Yeah. And so, like, why would I wanna consider that I feel like has already kinda given up before the race has even really started.

Hello if I was down fifty points, I’d be a little depressed as well.

Thank you.

You

know, and why am I spending all this money, but you see all of his lobbyists, the people that are shoveling, you know, wheelbarrow loads of money towards him. What are they thinking?

Okay. So he just kinda gave up. Woof. That one’s hard. But here’s the thing that’s interesting to me in here.

So several of them had had genuine contact with him. He comes. He sits in their church. But, I mean, they were kinda savage on DeSantis in an understated way by saying he seems depressed. He seems like he gave up.

What do you make? Of the DeSantis, just campaign in general?

I think they gave us several sides of it, that there was that initial likability. Maybe better word is fit to people who didn’t think Donald Trump would be able to garner the kind of support that he had as president. And that’s the next best thing. This was sort of the DeSantis theory of the case, which is I’m the next best thing because, look, I’m from Florida. Trump is from Florida now.

And my policies, I agree with what Trump did in office, and I can watch my mouth. And so you should like me. Because the Trump train is headed nowhere. Well, then the trump train wasn’t headed nowhere as it turns out. Right.

And the DeSantis reaction to it wasn’t to try to derail it. It was to just try to shout louder. Look at me. Look at me. Look at me.

And then, you know, that wears you out. So I don’t disagree with that sort of maybe they’ve given up. I look to what the candidates are doing between now and the caucuses as all in. And that I think you’ll see enthusiasm. I don’t think you’ll see a depressed candidate in any engagement.

So That kind of thing can kind of take hold late. We’ll see.

Yeah. Well, Ron DeSantis got that endorsement from Kim Reynolds. That was important. And he also got Bob Vander Platts, who’s very important there in Iowa, the local evangelical leader, that hasn’t seemed to move the needle with voters in these groups. And I gotta say, so Santorum and Cruise both one with Vander Plats on their teams, But when I was in Iowa, the last time I was there with doing the things for PBS, they loved Kim Reynolds.

The GOP voters in my groups, I did a couple of them, loved Kim Reynolds. Either why hasn’t it helped DeSantis more that Kim Reynolds endorsed him? And do you actually think it’s a drag on Kim Reynolds that she didn’t endorse from?

Yeah. I don’t have any polling data yet to say whether that’s a drag. I was surprised that she decided to endorse at all. Because that’s a calculated risk. What exactly is the upside?

There’s only an upside if the one she endorses wins. And then that’s a different political future for her, perhaps. I’d heard the question asked of Doug Gross, who’s a political Kingemaker somewhat. I mean, he’s knowledgeable about all of this. Why did she endorse he said, well, the last time I look, politicians have egos.

And so she felt she would be powerful enough that she could help her friend. Ron DeSantis, and it didn’t make a wit of difference that we can tell. He was up three percentage points from October. So maybe, but I don’t know yet if she’s gonna feel the downside of that, but it didn’t pay off.

Man, I remember these voters and how much they loved her when I was there. And, you know, Trump criticized her, so we cut an ad. When Trump went after her, because we were like, we just on the focus groups there, seen how much people liked her and we thought, oh, this might actually be a misstep. Where Trump is now going after Kim Reynolds. It wasn’t even that she endorsed DeSantis.

He was going after her because she declined to endorse him. Right? And he pays no price. This is where I think you just keep learning the lesson over and over again. Even me who talks to voter all the time, just his durability is something that can still not shock, but still just kinda make you go, wow.

There’s nothing.

It’s very impressive. The hold that he has Yeah. His ability to say things. This was from the get go. This was from when he first announced.

That nobody that had a microphone or a TV camera believed that he was going to be successful. Because he kept saying things. He kept saying things. And what they didn’t realize is that’s what people wanted to hear. Now there was a focus group in New Hampshire early on.

That they were talking about what is it that you like about Donald Trump. And one person said, well, he’s one of us. And I thought, Well, that’s very interesting. And the moderator said, what do you mean? He flies on a private jet.

He’s a billionaire. What do you mean? He’s he said, well, he talks like us. And this is why, you know, I come back to the focus group and the comfort that people had in saying things that might be considered difficult. But that’s how they were already thinking and already talking, and Trump allowed that.

Gave voice to it.

Yes. And, actually, I wanna get to, as we wrap here, with another guy who has fallen in the voters’ eyes, Vivek Brownaswamy was drawing some interest until people saw the way he debates. Plenty of voters still like him. He and DeSantis got a lot of second choice mentions. Which is, I think, pretty well reflected in your polling.

But he’s run into a major problem beyond his control. Let’s listen.

I’m sorry. I’m not being corrected to disguise, but I don’t like his name. I don’t like where he came from. At nine eleven, I still harbor a lot of hard feelings about that.

He was kinda just finishing, you know, some good things. Yeah. I mean, it’s okay. I mean, is he trapped? No.

But he’s okay.

Had somebody call me for, Rebecca. And that person could not say his last name, but I was like, come on. Are you just picking people out of the street or what? Like, gotta be able to say the candidate’s name. I’m sorry.

I’m in a room with business owners all the time. And I don’t know. I just I don’t think he can get in a room with political leaders. I mean, Putin will run right over him. And I don’t think it’s gonna Bulwark.

Yeah. I like him, like, from the comments he’s made, it sounds good, but I would also agree where I just feel like Trump has more, if that makes sense.

His name doesn’t bother me. His religion doesn’t really bother me once again. The question becomes for me is will what they say and what they do match up? And I can’t say for any of these guys that it will save for trump.

Yeah. He’s got a lot of charisma, and he’s got a lot of energy, and he’s young. So I I mean, that’s one thing that I would like to see. But just the way he comes across I don’t know. It kinda runs me the wrong way.

I think both him and DeSantis, they don’t have the fire in the gut that they need right now to make anything happen in twenty four. But I think they’ve got four years to build on that because Trump’s got, like, an atomic bomb going off in his gut.

So there’s this interesting dynamic in the groups where you do get people who say flat out as this first gentleman did. I don’t like his name and also something nine eleven. Those are sort of gobsmacking moments, but also you hear them enough. Like, I hear people say, well, I don’t think a woman should be president. There was someone in this group.

It was funny. I often hear someone will say, I don’t think a woman can be president more than half the time that is a woman saying that. Like, I don’t trust a woman to be president. And, like, there’s nods from the group. In this group, the normie Nikki curious person said, I would love to see a woman president and everyone else stared.

Like, nobody else was like, yeah. That’d be sure be great to see if a woman president. But, like, there’s this weird thing where both for Nikki and for Vivek, there is a type of person who likes the fact that Vivec doesn’t look like an old white guy. They like that he’s sort of a young, different tech background, that’s cool for them. Same way with Nikki.

They think she’ll do better because she’s a woman, or they’d like that she’s got this immigrant background story, but there is a real other pocket of voters who do not like any of that one bit. And they’ll voice it in these groups, and nobody gets mad at them really when they voice it. You hear somebody will not push back say, like, I don’t have a problem with this personally. That’s not why I’m not voting for them, but they’re not interested in voting for them. But I don’t know if you if you have an opinion on some of the bad thoughts.

You already said it. Trump gave a lot of permission for this stuff to come out. I wasn’t doing focus groups and maybe because you have Do you think Trump changed people or when you were doing focus groups ten years ago? Did you hear a lot of the stuff that made you go like, ugh, or

do you

feel like, it’s different now.

I feel like it is different now, but it’s a matter of degree. It’s not an order of magnitude. The conservative culture was a little more careful than sort of Katie Bar the door, whatever you wanna say. It’s okay to say. Almost.

Almost. It can feel that way. And somebody can say something that seems inflammatory, and the rest of the group nods and says, I’m with you. And I think that I’m just saying that people used to be maybe a little bit more careful and then Trump was their voice, which is what he says all the time. He tells them that.

I am your voice. I am your retribution. I am the one who’s going to make you great again, and they believe it.

Yeah. People say the phrase a lot in the groups. They say, he says what we’re all thinking. What they mean is, like, the bad stuff that they’re thinking. Like, he goes ahead and says it.

And it’s a tough one because sometimes I wanna go to these people’s defense, because I do hear they wanna distance themselves from the more racially motivated or or sexist or otherwise terrible comments. And there’s a lot of people who disavow Trump’s behavior. And so there’s part of me that sometimes wants to defend those people, but on the other hand, they’re okay with it enough. I mean, they’re they may not personally, like, behave that way in public. And I will say as somebody who grew up in conservative circles that come from, like, a college to a think tank, took me a long time before I encountered, like, real racism in the wild from conservatives.

And so I would have defended conservatives on this count. But I think I realized you mentioned the ghost of Rick Santoram. I have some ghost of Rick Santoram stories. I was like, was I traveled with him when he published his book, and Anne Colter was there. And I remember people they were, like, obsessed with Ann Coles or whatever, but I didn’t hear horrible things the way that I hear them now on such a regular basis it doesn’t mean it wasn’t always there, but there was a way you talked around other people or, I guess, implied society, where you didn’t say some of these things that now it’s just, like, fine to say.

And also, whenever somebody says, I don’t wanna sound prejudiced and guarantee something prejudiced about to come out of their mouth. Anyway,

Yeah. And I think part of that is also in the context of the broader society that the way things were moving in terms of what we now call woke that it seemed as though there was a snowball that there were more and more things you couldn’t say. There’s more and more ways that have been paved for certain types of people and therefore blocking certain other types of people that part of this was the social reaction to a lot of policies that were coming out. And people might not agree with the policies, but they didn’t feel like they could say something that would sound sexist or racist or whatever. And then as we can see, that’s kind of been broken open.

Yeah. So that now they can say, I don’t mean to sound racist, but I don’t think this is right.

Yeah. Well, when you just say, I don’t like his name, I don’t like him. I’m sorry, buddy. That one does fall pretty squarely in the races category. Anyway, so is there anything that I haven’t asked you about Iowa or the caucuses that you really think people are missing or that you’d wanna tell people?

Because this is my audience is sophisticated. They they listen to a lot of focus groups.

You’ve done a very thorough interview. So I feel like we’ve paved the way that the Rick Santorm event could happen. We have a black swan again. I’m just I’m open for that to happen. I don’t know what turnout is going to be like.

I’ve heard a couple of predictions that, you know, it was a hundred and eighty thousand last time. It will break two hundred thousand and therefore be a new record. So I’ll be driving around on caucus night kind of looking for how big are the crowds? What’s happening here

to kind of see what’s going on? Even when I feel like I absolutely know the outcome, I still find it all very exciting, but I do have to mention we were going through your website. And there’s all these, like, fun facts about you on your website. And so I did not mention in your intro that you scored forty nine out of fifty in the camp Lake Hubert Rifle competition, and you also won a court case representing yourself against a licensed attorney. Those are amazing things.

Well, those are things I’m proud of. Thank you for bringing them up. And you can see on the wall, one of those framed pictures is of the decision that was handed down, and my breakfast club sent a ten dollar check to the JN sales or legal defense fund. Yeah. They gotta kick out of the whole thing.

That is incredible. I gotta tell you that I mean this in all seriousness. There is nothing I like more in the world than somebody who is excellent at the thing that they do. And you are just somebody who is excellent at the thing that you do. I could talk to you forever, but I just wanna thank you so much, and Salsa, for doing this.

We look forward to seeing final poll before the caucuses. And thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the Focus Secret Podcast. Tune in next week as we preview the New Hampshire primary Get ready for a lot of Nikki Haley talk. See you guys next week.