Ron and Nikki (The Secret Podcast PREVIEW)

Hey there. It’s JBL. On the Secret Show with Sarah Longwell today, we talked about Ron DeSantis and his very sad trombone. Campaign. Also about Nikki Haley and whether or not there’s a path for her.

A little bit about Sam Bankman Freed’s conviction. Here’s the show. Alright. So let’s start with our boy Ron DeSantis. You know, people are starting to notice that his nineteen point reelection victory was really just, like, two points ahead of Marco Rubio, and maybe not, like, indicative of some gigantic superpower that he had And, people are now listening to his voice when he speaks and watching how he makes weird facial things and noticing that he can’t keep people around.

What do you think?

So the thing that I noticed and the reason I wanted to talk about, our good old boy DeSantis, so we don’t talk about that much anymore because he’s it’s just a

irrelevant.

The same story over and over again, which is just the same slide. Yeah. But Rick Scott, Not to be confused with Tim Scott, who is one of the people pulling at two percent in the reporting primary.

Or Michael Scott, from the office. Or Michael Scott, all different people. Very different.

Scott is the bald white guy who is the senator from Florida. And so when you’re the senator from Florida, oftentimes you might you know, like, wanna help your buddy the governor of Florida.

You do have to go

through the same questions, but delegation. Yeah.

Got a semen event. And Which is,

you know, and look, Kim Reynolds in Iowa, who is clearly close to the Santaist and hates Donald Trump. She sat on the sidelines, and Rick Scott could have stayed on the sidelines. But instead, he chose to be one of the early senators to come out and endorse Donald Trump the other day.

So it was time to consolidate the field.

Time to consolidate the field. Get out, Ron. Which is funny. Like and I agree. Consolidate the field.

Consolidate the field, though. He wasn’t just saying consolidate. Like, he wasn’t saying consolidate to defeat trump. And they’re considered one challenger Correct. Which is how we talk about consolidation.

He was talking about consolidation, like, everybody get out and let trump be the guy.

Let’s get back to our coronation, please.

That’s right. Which means he hates DeSantis.

Oh, yeah. Right? Well, two cases means he hates DeSantis and he wants to replace Mitch McConnell. Yeah. So it means that if Trump is elected and, And Republicans take back the Senate, Trump is clearly going to demand that Old Crow Mitch be gone.

Yes. From leadership. And Rick Scott has long wanted it. Right? I mean, Rick Scott had been running his shadow campaign for for his leadership spot for, like, three years now.

He he’s been doing it poorly, though, I would say. I mean, please a

blood person.

Yeah. And I don’t know enough about the scandal that he had, but, like, I feel like I’ve brought this up before on the show expressed my not certainty about why he sucks. And, like, I get a lot of mail, and it’s something about he owns either, like, a constellation of hot he does something in health care where people believe that he was a fraudster in doing that, and made his, billions, millions, or many millions, like, with their ill gotten gains. But he’s, my observations, I don’t, like, I don’t know that much about his history, pre Senate. I do know that as the guy running these shadow campaigns, he’s the one who did the thing where he put in writing.

Right? They’re like, we need to eliminate social security and, and that gave Joe Biden what was, like, the biggest win when he was doing, the state of the union.

So, you know, Sarah, you and I often often talk about how the money in politics thing isn’t really the truth. Right? It’s It’s, you know, ask president Steve Forbes how important money in politics is. Right?

Ask president Mike Bloomberg, how important money in politics is.

In all true. But I would say that the political career of Rick Scott proves that money is important sometimes. So here’s the thing. Sometimes you can buy yourself a seat.

Yeah. Yeah. You can do it at the lower level, I think. You have to like zero political talent. Yeah.

I’m not sure he can buy his way to a speaker to or to be the, leader of the Senate, but maybe he can. I don’t know. Seems like seems like everyone’s pretty mad at Tommy Tuberville. I don’t think it’s gonna be him.

No. Probably. But, but, yes, Scott sucks.

Yeah. There is gonna be a showdown coming I think in the Senate, if Mitch McConnell I mean, my guess is what? He’s trying to hold on here for one more cycle. But Mitch McConnell, I what is I I didn’t even think about talking about this, but I I was wondering this the other day. If you’re Mitch McConnell, you’re starting to have these health issues.

People are sort of saying, Hey, bro. Time for you to step down. Are you sort of in if you’re him, are you in Joe Biden mode of, like, I alone am standing between, like, Trump and, like, the entire takeover of this party, and so you’re gonna have to drag me out dead from here? Or is he like if in order to be the majority leader again, Trump has to win, which means I gotta deal with Trump again while I am maybe no longer at the top of my game. Like, what what is Mitch McConnell thinking right now?

I mean, I suspect he’s thinking that he alone can be the the the true face of the real Republican party. And so he’s gotta hold on. And and then also he’s thinking, you know, if Trump wins again, I can be a majority leader. I think he’s thinking both. Right?

Yeah.

And not say, but who who knows?

Oh, but anyway, can we sorry. The money and politics thing. My big thing about the money in politics, I was just arguing about this, was, but it’s not that money matters not at all. It’s actually that, like, the incentives have shifted wildly. From the sort of people talk about like big corporate dollars in politics, buying influence, and It’s actually now small dollar donors who are creating these perverse incentives for like the Lauren Boberts and the Marjorie Taylor creams.

And I’ll just say this. This is I’m gonna sound like a real, like, crypto Republican here. The thing about the corporate dollars is that the one thing about corporations that different that’s different from individuals is that individuals sort of wants right now, like, they wanna burn it all down. Right? And don’t really whereas the corporations have an incentive for the system to function, and, like, for democracy to be in place.

And so I’ll take I’ll I I would I would like it if all if people who are, like, really had a stake in democracy functioning. You know, I the it is they they don’t have nearly the power. People think they do. And I think we are slightly to the worse off for it.

Yeah. I mean, the the problem is that corporate money and politics does create a set of problems. It creates a particular set of problems around policy making. Mhmm. Once you empower the people, the people create another set of problems, and the set of problems they create is about democracy.

Truth be told, I would take the policy problems myself, I think that’s what we’ve learned. Right? The more the more you get the people involved, the worse it is, you need mediating institutions between the people and the exercise of power. That’s what that’s a whole another thing. Back to Ron DeSantis.

Okay.

Because I would like to kick him while he is down.

Yeah. Let’s do that. With our with our boots our lifts with the lifts in our boots. Oh my gosh.

The lifts thing too. Ugh. What is it about this guy in boots?

Well, so I don’t I don’t I don’t I haven’t, like, followed liftgate. I will say it doesn’t matter. Like, it does like, the it doesn’t I heard him it’s okay. It’s all on a on a one of these weirdo TV news news maxi America first things. And the guy’s asking him, he’s like, you know, you know, governor, they’re just everybody’s talking about your boots, and do you have lifts in them and your height and are you short?

And he just goes on and on. And DeSantis is like doing that creepy smile thing, whatever, before. And then, and the guy’s and the guy finally wraps it up by being like, isn’t this just so, you know, crazy? Just respond. And so, I know.

Dan’s supposed to be like, well, yeah. You know, we need to be talking about serious things, and he kinda goes, he does this. It was clearly like a setup for him to look tough, where he’s like, if Trump had the balls, to debate me, I’d wear a boot on my head. And I was like, buddy, you’re talking about boots. Like, you don’t wanna be talking about boots.

You’re still talking about boots. Brutal. Brutal.

So, if he falls to a real third, So if it’s clear, if it becomes clear that this is a Nikki Trump race, does Santa stay in or get out?

So this is a great question. And I don’t know the answer, but I wanna game theory. Let’s let’s let’s game it out. Because I will I’m I’ve been indulging in a little Nikki number

Nikki fanfic.

Yeah. Like, Alright. How does Nikki do it? What’s, like, the crazy fantasy politics path for Nikki? And it sort of looks like this.

She’s gotta come in second in Iowa. And she could come in third, but I think she she could come in like, I think she could I think she could have a three two one strategy, which is third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, has to be first in South Carolina, which is where you really get into the fantasy play. But here’s the thing. In Iowa, she needs DeSantis to stay in because beating DeSantis is both important for her acceleration. Number one.

Number two, DeSantis’s piece. DeSantis gets out.

Gotta split the trump. He she needs to

be splitting the trunk to a trump vote. And it’s not splitting exactly. He’s just taking, like, who

Some of it away. No.

He’s taking a chunk. Right? It’s not like they’re, like, splitting it in half. But I do think you need Ron DeSantis in there peeling from he does two things. He peels some from Trump, so Trump doesn’t win at like sixty percent.

And then two, she beats the expect you know, and this is one of the funny things about the language, and I don’t know when she’s gonna do it, but she should. Is Ron DeSantis, this team has been doing two man race. It’s gonna be a two man race. And Nikki, kids gonna be able to be, like, this is not a two man race. This is a man this is a one man, one woman race.

Like, this is a

That’s wrong. She should say, you’re damn right. It’s a two man race, and I’m the fucking man. That’s what she should say. Right?

She should just, like, walk around, like, Sam Cassell, like, you know, Do you do you remember Sam Cassell?

I don’t. And I also don’t accept accept your premise that to say that one is the man makes one the dominant figure, but,

It’s like Mickey Lynch. She’s the man. This is

what happens when I read your triad. The problem is is I’m like, I’m going, I’m into your triad, and then all of a sudden, I’ve got a whole section two where I’ve gotta endure a wrestling metaphor to get the, like, political lesson, and I didn’t even understand the political lesson if we’re at once I’d walked through the metaphor of the wrestling. I don’t know who these people are. I don’t understand it. Why do you think it’s cool?

It’s well, it’s not cool. I mean, it is cool, but it’s important. I mean, point is she should say I’m the man. Okay. That’s what you should do.

And can I so there’s one problem with the three two one strategy? Yeah. Is that well, she’s trying to go three two one. Donald Trump is going one one one.

No. It is, you know, it’s totally right. This is why it’s a fantasy, but, like, hold on. The the question is, So first of all, I think she can go two two one. Like, I think she can come in second in Iowa, which gives her more momentum.

So then let’s say, then she rolls into New Hampshire. New Hampshire is a good state for her. Get a lot of independence voting. They don’t have a democratic primary except for the one between Joe Biden who’s not even on the ballot that people would have to write in and,

Dean Phillips.

Phillips. Okay. So lots of independents can vote in that race for Nikki. And so let’s say then she comes in a close to like a really close two, in New Hampshire, then you go into her home state. And here’s where this would it would it would hinge on South Carolina.

She’d have to have enough momentum and here’s where either I don’t know if you want DeSantis. Tell me what you think. Would you want DeSantis to drop out in South Sarah Longwell would you still want him to stay in? If you’re her.

So first of all, I think if Trump wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, the race is over and

Even if it’s really close and people are suddenly like, I don’t know.

If he wins both, everybody will be like, jeez, this is over. Why why is anybody else even running? The pressure will be on her to drop out, not on her to, like, be surging. Third secondly, I think it’s possible that Trump’s biggest margin of victory over second place isn’t Yeah.

Isn’t South Carolina. Right.

This is the, you know, people like, oh, this is really home state. No. Well, sure. Also, that’s a Maga state. So Yeah.

You know,

It’s a hundred percent. And also, I’m pretty sure the South Carolina primary and the Nevada primary are on the same day.

Yeah. And he’s gonna win in Nevada.

I think that and, like, so I keep having I keep having to talk people down from the Nikki fantasy strategy But there is this part of me that at least is like, you know, one of the things I hate is if DeSantis is like the second. Right? It basically is like the only way to survive in politics in Republican policy, which I know is sort of true, is either to be Trump or somebody acting just like Trump. And reinforcing all the bad stuff. Nikki at least provides this alternative to Trump and also I think creates a pool of voters.

So longer Nikki stays in. Let me kick this one, with you because this is I think this is true. The longer Nikki stays in, the better able we are to identify, like, the normies in the Republican Party, And I think that those people are the ones the ones who, like, really ride with Haley are the ones who could vote for Joe Biden in the general.

So, you’re exactly correct. Right. So the the hardest thing in politics is to get a voter to stop voting for somebody they’ve already voted for.

Yeah. That’s

right. If if she breaks people in the Republican Party from voting for Trump, even though it’s just in a primary election, then that is the pool that you want to fish in to get people to then vote against Trump in the general. Yeah. I look, I don’t think that Nick’s chances are zero. I think they’re very close to zero, but they’re not zero.

But there is only one plausible path for her. That is she has to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. She I mean, the the in order to have any chance Or if

she just wins New Hampshire?

I I don’t think it’s enough. Unless somebody else wins Iowa, meaning not Trump. Right? If DeSantis were to win Iowa, Tim Scott would not not gonna happen.

I don’t know. I just I think there’s a lot to be said for exceeding expectations. Like, she will get she will get a real bump. In people being like, I don’t know. Could she?

I

If trump does one Iowa, I mean, won’t won’t the bump go the other way? Like, we finally had voting and trump as if

Not at no. Not at well, what if so let’s say Trump’s at forty eight percent, so he’s not over fifty, and she’s at thirty eight percent. No. Like, let’s say she does really well.

She she does at forty and she’s at thirty eight. Sure. In in in

Or in the thirties, and DeSantis is at six percent.

Then maybe. But if Trump is beating her by double digits in Iowa, I think the person who gets a bump out of Iowa is Trump, not her. And then she is trying to stop his momentum at the same time that she needs to win just to stay alive. And I think it’s very hard to do.

I, so I, I, I sort of, I just think that there’s, there’s the way in which if trump is, if Trump underperforms expectations, like, at this point now, we’ve all set expectations for Trump, but, like, he’s crushing this thing. It’s a coronation. And I just think if DeSantis is just peeling off enough, maybe he’s down at ten percent, And she’s breaking into the thirties, and Trump is underperforming and maybe, like, just cracking forty or something, there starts to be a different conversation, which is I sort of think the best you can for is, like, for a period of time, there’s a different conversation. She gets to stay in for a while and make a good case against him, and then that helps in the general election.

Provided she makes a case against him. Right? I mean, that’s the other When

do you think DeSantis needs to get out?

In in which sense of the word to find a need for me.

So let’s let’s do both. So I think we can get let’s yeah.

Go ahead. Future political career, he needs to get out yesterday.

Yeah.

Right.

He’s getting because it it’s getting embarrassing.

The skulls of his enemies in Florida and reestablish his dominance over the near in group. Right? He’s gotta show the Republicans in Florida that he still has a great deal of power and that he can make their lives miserable if they cross him. And, every day he stays in, he looks more like a clown.

Have you noticed this is, like, a I don’t understand this. He’s on going on all these shows, and he’s got his earbuds in, and his audio is terrible. And I know that maybe this doesn’t sound like it would be a thing, but, like, when you’ve got a not incredibly, tonally pleasing voice. And then you decide I’m gonna take this voice and I’m gonna put it inside a tin cam. Like, there’s just he’s it is I I’m like, Somebody get this guy a mic.

It’s milky.

So he just it is it’s like it’s like the most amateurish clown show thing. It’s a small thing, but, like, This is how you are trying to connect with people and you sound terrible, like, unpleasant to listen to.

It’s It’s yes.

His team is failing him. Like, I don’t know. It’s cake Casey order them. It’s on Amazon. They’re, like, fifteen dollars.

There’s not using his AirPods.

Oh, it’s funny because it’s true. So when when do you think he needs to get out? You think after New Hampshire or you think after Iowa?

I mean, I guess I’m so now I’m just he’s part of he’s part of my fantasy strategy. So I need them in. I think through the fur before you go into super Tuesday, you sort of need him peeling off trump stuff to give a niki, a big enough sense of momentum that Ron DeSantis drops out. She’s the she’s the only person challenging Trump. And then, like, you make like, I want what I want is for Nikki to kinda be able to go the distance against Trump, like, oh, she doesn’t have to just drop out after the early states.

Like, she’s kinda in super Tuesday and she makes Trump kind of fight for it.

She’ll be Dean Phillips by then.

Yeah. Maybe, you know, she’s a little more politically talented. Than True. I think I think even I was giving her credit for early, like, I know Republican voters don’t want the Rhino and, like, I’ve listened to them say, even to me, even after listening to all these voters, I’m still shocked listening to hearing people say, like, I don’t think a woman should be president.

Yeah.

But she’s quite good. Like, though, in the way that DeSantis just doesn’t have political talent, And I think Mike Pence has what counted for political talent twenty five years ago, and Chris, like, Chris Christie has, like, some political talent, but also just turns people off too much. Yep. Same with Vivek. She the only one who I think is demonstrating a kind of natural political talent that comes from having, like, talent talent.

Like, she genuinely has

I’ve been in a role with her. She’s smart. She’s very good. She’s

Yeah.

This is a funny thing. She’s actually not that smart. But her political talent is, like, she’s her political IQ is very high, I think. And on a horse flash, you know, I like the horse flash stuff.

I do know you like saying horse flash.

She’s very, very good. She does have a problem, which is that when DeSantis drops out, he’s gonna endorse Trump.

Yeah. That’s true.

And that the more inevitable Trump looks, the more anybody who drops out who wants a future in politics is gonna be interested in endorsing Trump. Like, Vivec will draw endorse Trump. Yep. Whenever and Vivake will get out the minute Trump tells him to. Yeah.

Right? So that his seven percent or six percent goes right over to Trump.

Yeah. So here’s I’ll just push back on one other thing or just there’s one other thing kicking around my head that I’m like, here’s how I could see if I really squinted her and how she gets a little little bit of the big mo. Which is every head to head that has come out for Trump and Biden, Ron DeSantis and Biden and then Haley and Biden. Haley’s beating Biden by, like, five points. And Trump is losing by Ron DeSantis is winning by, like, the most recent one I saw, but she’s She is in the New York Times one, and then what I think it was Quinta Peacker, Emma.

Like, as a decent poll, she’s she wins a general election by a lot. And there is like an electability a little bit of an electability interest in the Republican Party. And you also have to think about the fact that there will be I don’t know what’s gonna happen with the court cases. Like, I just I’m not gonna rule out that she doesn’t get some momentum. I think, you know, I think you’re right.

There’s, like, a four percent chance. But as long as I’m in, so you’re saying there’s a chance territory, I also find Nikki to be, like, obviously sort of the least objectionable, except for maybe Chris Christie, but even even there, And so there’s this part of me that’s like if trump if that exogenous event they’re all pre praying for happens, I would rather her be in the dominant position than DeSantis.

Sure. Oh, obviously Ron DeSantis is an author, authoritarian group. I’d prefer Mike pence myself, the American hero.

I know.

I I

would definitely read your dryad.

I tell you what, people’ readers did not like that.

I bet.

It is not often that I get, like, two hundred people in the comments telling me I’m an idiot, but, boy, out of this. And this you know, it’s funny. That happened the last time I did the Mike Pence as a hero too. I just like the fact that I’ve written that. Here’s a serious question, though, and at some point, somebody will pull this.

In a three way general election, Biden versus Haley versus Trump. Does Haley finish ahead of Trump or behind Trump?

Biden versus Haley versus Trump.

Right. So let’s pretend Haley is the nominee and Trump runs as a third party. Because I think it is an easy money proposition that he finishes ahead of her.

I agree. I agree.

That’s a problem. Right? Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. No. He’s really not easy. He’s not gonna they’re beat.

I think I think he’s gonna be the numbing. I mean, I don’t think

He’s gonna be the president.

Okay.

God help us. This is where we’re at.

It’s like very early in the morning for me to get hit with stuff.

Okay. SBF, did you wanna talk about SBF, Sam Bankman Fried?

So, Sam Bankman Freed, who’s not free?

Sam Bancman Fry. Bahama, Sam Bancman Fry.

So here’s the thing. This is, you know, that there are these, stories that happen. And they’re oftentimes big stories, and I just don’t care about them. And I never bother to learn about them. And I just don’t know that much about it.

And one of them is not just Sam Bancred, but like crypto in general, like at some point, it was suggested to me by, like, a financial person, like, do you wanna, you know, get into crypto at all? And I was like, absolutely not. And I was kinda like, well, this is like the thing that people are doing. And I’m like, well, not me. I don’t wanna I just don’t care.

Don’t wanna be part of it. And I don’t know why I feel that way, but I but I do. And so but part of it is that it has allowed me to not have to think about, learn about, know about cryptocurrency. So why don’t you just do I know that but this sounds like way up your alley. Like, I knew when you were like, what should we talk about?

I was like, why don’t you explain the crypto SPF stuff to me because I’m I’ll be I’d be interested to just get the JBL version, but I knew you’d know everything about it.

Here’s all you need to know. When the FTX thing blew up, Elon Musk tweeted out, s b f is a democratic donor. So, of course, there will be no investigation. And here we are, like, a year later, and the dude is heading to prison for the rest of his life.

What did he do?

Well, so he did a bunch of things, that were all allegedly fraud. And he took a few billion dollars.

Still allegedly what he’s been convicted forever. I guess

I don’t have to say that anymore. And, he took several billion dollars worth of customers’ money, which they believed they were putting into, essentially a bank, right? So he was it was a securities exchange, but the idea was I put I put a hundred dollars of my money into FTX to buy Bitcoin, and that money is sitting in my FTX account. And in fact, what Saint Bankman Freed was doing was taking the hundred dollars that I just gave him, and then, giving it to Alameda Research, which was his other company, which lived right next to, right next to the the FDX.

And was run by, like, his ex girlfriend. Right?

Who’s it was all run by all of them at the same time. Okay. So, you know, like, on the org chart, maybe she’s, like, running Alameda Sarah Longwell Allison, I think is her name. But but for for all intents and purposes, they’re the same thing. They all live together, they all work in the same office of the Bahamas, and they’re all doing the same.

So here’s here’s when everything went bad and when FDX filed for bankruptcy, the gentleman who was brought in to try to unwind everything that happened was a a fellow named John j Ray, the third. Now I’m sure you don’t remember his name, but you have read about him before because what John Jay Ray, the third, was most notable for for this, was managing the bankruptcy of Enron. Mhmm. You remember Enron. Right?

I do.

Here’s what John Jayray said after his first weekend of going through all of the FDX stuff. Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information? Again, this is the guy who did the exact same job for the Enron bankruptcy. Hey, Gan. It’s JBL.

The conversation goes on from there. If you wanna hear the rest of the show, head on over to Bulwark plus and subscribe. Keep up to happy.