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Ohio Says Goodbye to Anything Other Than MAGA

March 20, 2024
Notes
Transcript
Trump-endorsed businessman Bernie Moreno easily won the GOP senate primary in Ohio on Tuesday, and will face off against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in November. Dems are thrilled, because they think the MAGA candidate and his scandals give them their best shot at keeping the seat. And how many votes is Nikki Haley getting after dropping out? What does it mean for the general election?

Plus, the debate over Donald Trump’s “bloodbath” comments continues to rage, and not all our hosts agree the coverage has been fair. At the same time, Trump has threatened to prosecute Cassidy Hutchinson and the Jan. 6 committee as part of his latest authoritarian promises.

This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:05

    Hello, everyone. This is J. D. L. Here with my best friends.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:09

    Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark work. We got a full docket today. We had another primary in Ohio, the Buckeye State. We, we haven’t gotten together the three of us to talk about the American bloodbath that’s coming and, Trump take a name at Cassidy Hutchhen. And then I am on fire about Judge Eileen Cannon.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:32

    We’ll save that for the third so that my hate fire can build over the course of these three hours. Alright. I’ll just set the table right now. Last night, we thought that, maybe the normie Republican Matt Dolan might have had a chance might have had a chance against Bernie Marina who’s a terrible candidate in Ohio. He just owns a car dealership and does a little crypto and, you know, is the kind of guy who has interns who think it would be a fun prank to set up adult friend finder profiles of him, which is a totally normal thing that all of us who have had interns have have had happen.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:10

    And he topped one by eighteen. Yeah. One by eighteen.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:13

    Guys, can I just tell you how impossible this is? I have a room of young people who are my colleagues and who work with me, but I am their boss. The idea that one of them would go into one of my accounts, my work account, and create, any kind of dating, profile, searching, like, first of all, they’d know if they, like, they’d never find their bodies if they did that. But, like, more important. Like, they just wouldn’t.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:42

    It would never occur to them.
  • Speaker 3
    0:01:44

    They might do it to Berry. For people who haven’t read, people should don’t know or talk about go look at the mark Markaputo did a very wonderful breakdown of this weird story where this intern signed up a adult friend or finder account where Bernie Moreno was looking for, young men, but I Yeah. So exactly. A prank. Okay.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:01

    It’s a prank. It’s like your direct boss, maybe. You’re pranking them. It’s April fool’s day. For an intern to do this to the head of the car dealership.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:10

    Also, it’s not clear that there’s any records that he actually interned there He was living three hours away from the dealership when he claimed to be an intern.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:17

    Yeah. And then, like, the car dealership asked for needed interns to review emails. It’s like, what? I I somebody some co you’re having a college kid three hours away? The whole thing is preposterous.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:29

    The whole thing
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:30

    is preposterous. And also, we don’t care. That Bernie Moreno I
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:33

    mean, every office has a different culture, Sarah Longwell
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:35

    be great.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:36

    No. In the the stuff I did to Bill Crystal, as Frank’s when I was his staff assistant back to a weekly standard.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:43

    Oh, yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:45

    Oh, yeah. I signed him up on on FETLife. Hi. There’s a whole FET Life ProTival where he’s really into, really into, like, Jane Austin Kinks and, Anyway, I don’t wanna I don’t wanna get too into it, but, it was also an old Greek tragedy stuff happened there.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:06

    Oh, so funny. Bill’s newsletter so there’s so many more quotations from
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:11

    From the the little green books. Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:03:13

    I will say too Sarah’s trying to give it this about the fact that gay thing, obviously, on this podcast. We don’t care that it’s gay. I I do think that it’s funny that the last gasp, like, I was trying I had Dolan won today. It would have been like, well, man, the last two times that the norm the Normandy Republicans had successfully taken out of Magga. It was through gay betting.
  • Speaker 3
    0:03:32

    Like Madison Cawthorn is like the one example of somebody they successfully took out and it’s like, oh, thank goodness. We have the normies to do the gay baiting. So anyway, we we’ve kind of got we’ve We’ve we’ve lost the the host job. We ripped it from you. Maybe you should share the results with the people JVio.
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:48

    So, here’s the thing. Matt Dolan, combined with Frank La Rose for forty eight point five points, put together. Even if it hadn’t been a divided field, And even if all of Frank La Rose’s votes had gone to Matt Dolan, what they wouldn’t have. Marina went over fifty. He went over fifty percent.
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:09

    And He went every county. He went every county, and he did better than he had done in any polling. A case could be made, correlation is not causation. Did the scandal helped him?
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:22

    I don’t think so. I don’t think so. What I think really happened and why I never look. I I went on MSNBC yesterday at four o’clock before the polls closed. And I gave a full throated endorsement of Matt Dolan, who I disagree with on a lot of things, who seems like he’s too way too conservative for a moderate squish like me, but who did the right thing about twenty twenty.
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:43

    And it’s, like, better to have him than a trump tote phony insurrection as to, like, is totally full of shit and is gonna do whatever Donald Trump says because he’s his butt boy now. Absolutely Matt Dolan was a better choice. So I did my part. The one MSNBC viewer who was undecided with two hours left in the polls. Hopefully, I pushed them in the right direction.
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:02

    But here’s the thing. I’m I always knew it was gonna be Moreno. Because these primary polls have these huge undecideds. And because of Sarah’s focus groups, because we’ve lived through this and these other primaries, we just know what the share of the vote is. You know, there’s maybe thirty percent of the party best case that wants somebody that that is not part of the Trump cult.
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:24

    At best. And maybe if that person runs a really great campaign and is very compelling, they can eke it out to thirty four, thirty five, and if that person, like, kind of lies and pretends like he’s trumpy, maybe you can get up to thirty, but, like, that’s just it. And so when these polls were coming out, it was like, Marano thirty three, Dolan thirty, La Rose eighteen. But, you know, undecided fifteen. I was like, oh, yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:46

    Those undecideds are going to Moreno. Like the, like, the people that were undecided were mega undecided that we’re still trying to decide. What do I think? Do I want which phony, MAGa, do I want more? Do I care that this guy maybe had a secret gay account?
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:00

    Right? Like, those were the undecideds. They were decided that they were MAGa. And anybody that just, like, really honestly looked at the looked at it kind of saw that. I I was even I was surprised it was an eighteen point win.
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:11

    I was thinking it’d be more like ten, but you know, that’s just the state of the party. It’s just where the party is.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:16

    Did you listen to this week’s focus group podcast?
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:19

    With Henry Gomez? Yeah. I did.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:21

    I listened to the first half. I didn’t finish it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:23

    Well, if you listened to it, you would, like, they were all Moreno. There was, like, we did two Ohio groups. One was all Moreno, and the other one was just like, kind of low info hadn’t really made up their minds yet. Right? It was these groups, but they were like plenty mega, and there was only sort of one Dolan voter in the whole bunch and this guy was just one of us.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:43

    One of us. He was just like, he he he didn’t wanna vote for trunk, and he liked Dolan and, like, he was sounded exactly like you would expect suburban voter, but the rest of them, like, they were either SuperPro, Bernie Moreno or and and I even, like, I pressed Henry Gomez, and the one thing he said is that Dolan was just on the air everywhere. But if you listen to the voters what they knew about Dolan, the one thing they knew, was that he had changed the name of the Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland Guardians. Whoa. And I was like, whoa.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:15

    He gave to the woke mom. And so, there the one scenario I could have seen, right? In this in these races where you have sort of a mega mega, a mini mega, and a non mega, which is what we had. I wondered about, you’d have to get the perfect split. Like, Larose, and Moreno needed to be, like, sort of perfectly splitting the vote, and then Dolan had to be able to, like, sneak through with, like, an extra decimal throw.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:46

    Thirty two, thirty two, thirty six. Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:49

    Yeah. Thirty four, thirty three. But, like, so I thought that was, like, maybe Dolan’s one shop, but there weren’t enough Larose people in the groups. Like, they were Moreno people, and half of what they knew about him was the Trump had endorsed him. And so I think it’s important to know too what’s happening.
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:05

    We’ll have
  • Speaker 3
    0:08:05

    the Indians issue with them a little mean, I just wonder what was something. I like, you know, how these people would have felt maybe if, like, a black team owner, like, created a created a baseball team that had the and they were like the crackers and their mascot. Sports team over. Team for their mascot was like a guy that had was missing some teeth and that had a t shirt with a racial slur on it. I wonder how they would have felt about that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:29

    I don’t know. Well, here’s what I I will say that people did unpack it. So this must have been quite the conversation in Ohio when the change was being thought about. It’s sort of like what the Red Skin’s conversation was here when they were changing the name. Like, it was a debate that people had.
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:42

    And one of the women I remember was talking about the fact that at the time, there were a number of Native Americans who came out in defense of the Cleveland Indians, saying that it was sort of honoring their heritage. And I don’t know what I don’t know what’s the term I’m just telling you what I heard the voters say. And so they they were that was the big betrayal, though. Like, that was what they knew about the whole thing. And I was pretty skeptical with that being the most top of mind thing for these voters that
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:09

    So they were worried that if he had gone to the United States Senate, he would have changed America’s mascot from big ball legal to a trans woman or something.
  • Speaker 3
    0:09:19

    Like, I don’t I hope maybe a cat Sure.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:22

    You know, they really
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:23

    It’s not like we have, alternate flags and national anthems now for people who attack the capital. So,
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:31

    So I I I I have a question for you. And I know you have more to say, Sarah, but I I wanna get this in before you bring it up yourself. A hundred sixty one thousand Ohioans voted for Nikki Haley, even though she’s not in the race anymore. And it’s not really a closed primary in Ohio, but it’s not really an open primary either. You can go up and ask for any ballot.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:54

    But if you if you register your stuck with that party for two years. That seems like a lot of people.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:00

    So I’m glad you brought this up. I was gonna bring this up. Although, I wasn’t gonna do it about Ohio. I was gonna do it about Arizona. Okay.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:05

    Do you know off the top of your head what percentage she got in Ohio?
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:08

    I have it up on one another tab. You keep talking. I will
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:10

    tell you that with eighty percent of the votes in right now in Arizona, Nikie Haley has gotten a hundred and eight thousand one hundred and eight votes, which is eighteen point seven percent.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:21

    From She’s at fourteen point four percent in Ohio.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:23

    Fourteen point four percent.
  • Speaker 3
    0:10:25

    The Serbian did it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:26

    And then, I mean, Ron DeSantis came in under ten thousand, but still, between the two of them, there’s almost twenty percent. And what’s interesting to me, right, is that, this is when she’s not on the ballot. Right? She was getting thirty percent from self ID Republicans when she was on the ballot.
  • Speaker 3
    0:10:42

    Super Tuesday. She did not get thirty percent.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:44

    You’re right.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:44

    No. You’re right.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:45

    You’re right. You’re right. But it it places She
  • Speaker 3
    0:10:46

    was campaigning.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:47

    In places where she was campaigning. Where you were putting together the anti trump coalition, right? And, and, and I’m talking about self IDed Republicans. I’m not talking about the, whatever forty percent she got in New Hampshire where there was a lot of independence. I’m talking about the self ID of Republicans.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:02

    And so it’s interesting that when she’s not even on the ballot, there’s still people who are just like, I am going to go out and vote against Trump. And here’s the thing is that it’s not actually the percentage matters, but what matters more is the enthusiasm. The enthusiasm, the interest, in going out to specifically vote against Donald Trump. Right? There’s no race.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:22

    You’re just like, I’m gonna take time. Out of my night. And it’s not gonna win anything. This person’s not even campaigning, not even on the ballot, but I’m just gonna go say, I hate this guy. I don’t want him to be the nominee.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:33

    I do feel like see here’s the thing. Ohio, it doesn’t matter. Ohio is gone, gone. The fact that it went for Obama twice Yeah. It went for Obama twice, but, like, we, Tim Ryan was a perfectly acceptable normie candidate.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:46

    And it’s now this does get to the Sherrod Brown of it all, which I think, like, any Democrat will tell you, there’s only one Democrat who can win in Ohio still. And that’s Sherrod Brown, this incumbent that people like, and against Moreno who, you know, Moreno will have a tough time getting the Mac Dolan voters. So a lot of those Mac Dolan voters may well vote for shared Brown. Although it’s a weird this one’s like a weirdo race because Sherrod’s more of a populist. Do you just
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:18

    put a pin in Sherrod and come back to it? Because I want to address the Nikki Haley. Part of this first because I have a little bit of a different view.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:24

    No. No.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:24

    No. You don’t deposit. It’s good. I just I I wanna be able to hit both of them because they’re both important questions. And, like, the Nikki Haley thing, I just am a little bit of a debbie downer on this.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:33

    Everybody wants to be very happy about this number. And so I wanna be happy. I’m gonna say I also wanna be happy. I hope it’s a good sign, but I just wanna give the Debbie down review on this, which is that, like, I think it’s similar to the special elections. It’s like there is a group of never trumpers of us, of our people.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:52

    Our people, maybe they’re listening. Right? Red dogs who, like, fucking hate Donald Trump so much. And they hate him more than anything. And I love them for it, you know, and their moms, there’s some people in my life that are like this.
  • Speaker 3
    0:13:04

    And they’re like, every policy issue I care about is dwarfed by my loathing of Donald Trump, and I loathe him so much. I’m gonna leave the Republican Party. I’m gonna vote for Democrats. I’m gonna show up for my state legislature special election, and I’m also gonna show up on the Republican because I left their party, rob Hogan party in my head, but I never really reregistered. So I’m gonna show up today after school pickup, and I’m gonna stick it to them because it makes me feel good.
  • Speaker 3
    0:13:29

    And god bless all those people.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:31

    To people with TDS.
  • Speaker 3
    0:13:32

    Yeah. But are they the voters buying a new and I guess Biden needs to keep them it’s good in that sense. So he hasn’t lost them. It’s good in that sense. He hasn’t lost them.
  • Speaker 3
    0:13:41

    But but I don’t, you know, some people look at that number and they’re that means eighteen percent of Republicans voted it or fourteen point four percent of Republicans are open for Biden now. And it’s kind of like, well, actually, I bet of that fourteen point four percent. I bet eight or nine percent of those people are the people we’re talking about that were already voted for Biden and and fucking hate trump. And and are and are as much more democrat than Rashida to leave as a Democrat. Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:05

    At at this point. And so in in practical matters, so I just I I wish we could see a better breakdown of these numbers to make me feel a little bit better about what’s cut of them.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:16

    Yeah. Well, this is
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:17

    either sat it out or voted for Trump left. Time?
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:19

    So this is the the number. Right? The number was in twenty twenty. I think Trump lost eight percent of Republicans. And of this fourteen percent, you have to assume that at least eight percent of them are gonna swing to Biden.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:32

    But if it’s nine percent, And that that plays out nationally. That’s a very meaningful number.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:38

    Not nationally. Not nationally. If it plays out in Pennsylvania, Michigan Michigan, Wisconsin in Arizona. It’s the reason I cared much more about Nikki Haley’s percentage in Arizona than I did in Ohio because Ohio’s gone and it’s not coming back. Arizona to have eighteen percent, almost twenty percent combined, show up to not vote for Trump.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:59

    Like, and again, Tim, I I hear you, and I’m nervous about all these numbers, and I’m nervous about letting it make us feel too good. But I it is
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:09

    also Don’t
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:09

    don’t worry about that, Sarah, because none of us are gonna feel good until after the election.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:14

    But that idea, the people that are gonna turn out to stick it to Trump Like, the worst case scenario is that people aren’t feeling like that. Right? The worst case scenario is that people are like, like, I, you know, and they just are like, Trump’s already won this. Why bother? But the fact that they wanna take time out of their day, just to go vote against him, in a race that he nobody can possibly win where the candidate’s not even running, that feels like lurking under all the numbers.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:42

    People who are like, give me a chance to go mess this guy up, and I’m gonna take it. And not a not an insignificant percentage.
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:47

    It’s good.
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:48

    Yeah. I agree that that’s good. That’s good. That’s encouraging. I just yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:52

    Some there’s a little you know how sometimes I need to put a damper on happy talk. Ring cloud needs to put a damper on hate. And a lot of my And I I feel like I should because all of my, like, social media friends who I usually agree with on everything are, like, posting, like, hell yeah. Twenty percent for Nikki Haley is a great sign. I’m like, oh, I’m kind of like, is it a good sign?
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:10

    I think so. Maybe it might be. I’m not sure. So anyway, I I interrupted you. I do wanna get into the because I think the Sherrod Burney race is super interesting.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:18

    I would like to go back to that, but I just wanted to explore the Nikki thing first. So where where do you remember where you were on that? Well, I
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:22

    don’t know where I was, but I guess I would just say as an opening gamut on like, the Dems wanted Bernie Moreno. Right? They even they were doing that thing that I hate that they do where they were spending money to be like, this guy is the guy who comes.
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:34

    It didn’t matter.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:35

    It didn’t matter. So which is like why
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:37

    do it. Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:37

    Yeah. So why do it?
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:38

    That is so why do it. Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:40

    So why lose the moral high ground and why waste your money? When, you know, just a it’s a Trump cult. They’re gonna nominate the Trump freak.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:47

    You don’t
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:47

    have to
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:47

    worry about it. These guys all think they’re so clever doing this. Like, knock it off. Like, the Republican party’s plenty bad. They will do the job for you.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:55

    You don’t need the help.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:57

    And Or fake it a little more. Don’t know. Find some rich person donor to, like, you know, some, you know, to put it under something. At least be, you know, come on.
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:04

    No. Well, these were clever. I mean, these simply saying, these were ads saying this guy’s way too conservative.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:09

    I know.
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:10

    Now effectively, like, they weren’t shining him up. They were they were you. The more generous read is they are preparing the battlefield for the general election.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:18

    Uh-huh.
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:19

    I don’t believe that I’m
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:20

    sure that generous is any hope. Go ahead. Gotcha. That’s
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:22

    fine. Only that I think, you know, this is gonna be the toughest of the races. I mean, they’re all gonna be tough to Senate race. Yeah. Tester’s gonna be hard too.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:32

    Like, it’s just a question of, like, can Democrats still win in these red states when they’re incumbents? And, like, Sherrod Brown’s the only Democrat who could win in Ohio these days. And can he still win? I’m not sure he can.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:48

    Yeah. JBL’s shaking his head. I don’t the here’s the problem for Sherrod. It’s like it worked for Federman. And Pennsylvania is a much better state, but you you’re basing it on this model, right, where that’s like you can over perform in the rural and and in the small towns in the Toledo’s because you are more economically populist and authentically so and and at least some percentage of the voters do not believe that you have been co opted by the woke laugh Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:18:19

    Like, so that’s party or gambit. But the other part is you also have to win the Dolan voters.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:25

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:18:25

    For whom Sherrod Brown is, like, not the ideal Democrat at all. Right? And so you have to convince them that Bernie Moreno is so unacceptable that
  • Speaker 1
    0:18:35

    that You you mentioned this for a second before about how he’s more populist. Can you talk a little bit more about that?
  • Speaker 3
    0:18:40

    Yeah. I just I think that Sherrod has a very smartly kind of resisted from a positioning standpoint, you know, going in on the democratic identity stuff and has focused more on economic issues, pro union issues. He’s more protectionist. Tammy Baldwin’s done a little bit of this on the edges when it comes to like working with JD Vance on random, you know, train safety and I, you know, I’d have to go look at the list of, of the things that Sher Brown has worked out with people on. So, like, he’s worked hard to cultivate that image.
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:12

    But you
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:13

    think that doesn’t help him with Dolan voters?
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:15

    I mean, I that is he’s working hard to cultivate that image to reach the Obama Trump voters. Right. They’re too in order to win Ohio, You need to swamp. You need to run huge numbers up with Obama Trump voters and with Romney Clinton voters. Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:30

    Like, these rural working class whites that used to be Democrats, the Navicam Republicans and the upscale whites that let’s just be honest. We’re mostly talking about white people that used to be Republicans and now are more democrat. Like, you need to do well with both really, really well. And I and I just yeah. I mean, I just think that’s a tough combo for anybody.
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:51

    And, and federal man managed to pull it off, but he had the benefit of he’s on the ballot with hero in a midterm as Sebastian points out, you know, with on a belt with Shapiro where Shapiro was kind of helping with that crowd. Right? And share it is gonna be on a ballot with Trump in a presidential year. I think it’s tough.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:09

    So let me let me ask you guys something. One of the things that has really helped the Republican Party since twenty sixteen is the phenomenon of Trump running behind down ballot Republicans. So you put Trump on the ballot at the top of the ticket. He brings out all of these people who don’t vote otherwise. They vote for Trump.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:35

    You’re normie Republicans who really don’t like Trump come out because they always come out. And some percentage of them won’t vote for Trump. They’ll go for Hillary. They’ll go for Biden, but down ballot. They’ll stick with all the normie senators.
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:48

    Who aren’t so normie anymore, but what this is but this is directionally true.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:52

    But this is what I was gonna say. So what happens to that equation when Republicans aren’t run when they’re just running Trump up and down the ballot.
  • Speaker 3
    0:21:01

    We have an example of this. That’s bad news kind of, which is
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:05

    Ronji Nancy.
  • Speaker 3
    0:21:07

    Ronji,
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:08

    yeah, but she changed. He wasn’t a new guy. Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:21:11

    That’s true. And sixteen, I guess he wasn’t quite as trumpy, but, like, you were seeing that, but he was sixteen twenty two. So he wasn’t on the twenty twenty trying to think if there was a twenty twenty example of this of a trump incentive candidate.
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:22

    I don’t think we have one really because the same thing happened in twenty twenty Right? Republicans over performed down ballot than what you would have expected them to. And I don’t know. Like, maybe know, some percentage of people are just gonna stay with the tribal identity and we’ll suck it up and vote for the down bet, but some percentage aren’t, I think. I think this is the dark side of that trade that the Republicans have been making, right, where they thought, well, we need trump because without him, we can’t reach those low propensity voters.
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:53

    But with him, even though we turn off some of our people, we we really hold on to a bunch anyway. Once the whole party is trump, then you’re wedded to those low propensity voters, and you’re gonna start shedding more of the red dogs. Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:22:08

    I’m looking at those. There really isn’t a good example in twenty twenty. All the twenty twenty candidates were much less trump y than. Brraino. Like, I Purdue and Leftler, I guess, is the closest example, but they’re really yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:22:20

    That’s interesting. That’ll be an end to that’s a good point.
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:25

    Alright. So moving on, Donald Trump, who, who is known for always choosing his words carefully, and being very into norms and decorum and who has never dabbled in, allusions to political violence before was treated very unfairly this weekend by the mainstream, lamestream news media, who when he said there would be a bloodbath if Joe Biden was elected president, if you read the context and and just sort of treat what you know about him in his history, it’s clear that he’s referring to, there will be a bloodbath for the domestic auto industry. And, I mean, he didn’t say that explicitly. But, but anyway, it’s just, you know, it’s one more reason. This is why I have to vote for Trump Sarah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:12

    This is why I didn’t want to. I didn’t want to.
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:15

    You are okay. So your position is, and Tim’s, is that you think that it was fine, the way that those clips about bloodbath were clipped and disseminated?
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:27

    I would say they were neither fine nor not fine.
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:30

    Okay. So I have really strong feelings about this, and I’m gonna so I thought the reason I wanna talk about it even though it’s Wednesday now and this happened this weekend is that we cannot do this this race. JBL, you talk about the asymmetry of X affectations and how unfair it is all the time. It is unfair. It is also the world that we live in.
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:51

    Donald Trump, through the course of Ernie Moreno, he was in Ohio, giving, a speech, said so many insane things. He did a pledge of allegiance to the great January sixth hostage and listened to their national anthem an alternative national anthem for the people who stormed the capital. I believe it was in the same speech where he talked about Joe Biden was losing to Barack Hussein Obama There was any number of things that you could pull from that speech. Now, when I saw the bloodbath comments, I retweeted them, I commented about them, and then went and listened to the whole thing. And the second I listened to the whole thing, I immediately deleted.
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:36

    What I had posted because to me, it was it’s not even close. And the thing that drives me crazy, or that I that I think is really bad and that we should avoid because right now, but there’s gonna be a bunch of people listening to me being like, Sarah. They’re gonna they’re gonna take what you just said JBL, which is like, We know the whole context. We know how he uses violent language. Sure.
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:57

    Okay. I heard Joe Biden one time say that Mitt Romney wanted to put black people back in chains. And and this is not me both sides saying, this is me saying, we do not get to electively clip. He was absolutely talking about the auto industry. And that one line where he
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:12

    was like,
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:13

    he just listened to it. Did you read it or did you go listen to it?
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:16

    Yeah. No. I read I read I read the whole thing on the podcast yesterday. Did you
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:20

    listen to it?
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:21

    Yeah. I watched it. Yeah. Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:22

    Okay. And you think that there is even a scintilla of doubt that he was on a rift. He was on like a long rift about the auto industry and tariffs. And then he says, If Joe Biden gets elected, it’ll be a bloodbath. Right after sopping
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:36

    back. That’ll be the least of your problems. That’ll be the least of the problems, the bloodbath.
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:40

    That’ll be the least of it. But that’s but it what is he talking about? It is not it is not at all clear.
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:48

    Okay. There we go. We agree. It’s not clear. That he’s talking about the auto industry.
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:53

    He’s No. No.
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:53

    No. I think it is clear. I’m saying it’s not at all clear that he’s talking about anything but that. In the context of what he was saying, it it felt completely to me like he was talking about there’s gonna be a bloodbath. And he was he was talking about economic things.
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:08

    Like, and here’s the point. Here’s the point. Let’s say you weak sort of disagree on this. Okay? And that there’s like it’s he’s mostly in the context of the auto industry, but there’s this line that you could pull out to be like, this is like, but but don’t you say it?
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:20

    Don’t you think this line is weird? Okay. We are now parsing these weird things that he said instead of talking about the things that were flagrantly crazy and insane, and instead it looks like the entire discourse now is about the way that Trump is treated unfairly he was taken out of context. And to me, my gut level instinct when I listened to the whole thing was this was absolutely out of context. And it’s not just, the way that they were cut and disseminated on the internet was out of context.
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:49

    Alright. I I don’t necessarily disagree with that, but here’s what I here here’s the problem, which is Can somebody me and Susan Glass talked about this in the main pod? Does anybody have a solution? I’m, oh, maybe JBL does. JBL has always got the big ideas.
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:02

    What is the solution to this? Because Donald Trump, it like, every time he speaks, it is just like a river of non sequiturs and lies and conspiracies and Bulwark. And, like, that is his in all of his entire speeches. And the media is still trapped and that is a fair criticism of the mainstream media. That they’re still trapped in the two thousand twelve Mitt Romney frame of, oh, we gotta do a Gotcha.
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:30

    Like, Gotcha, Mitt Romney, you slipped and said binders full of women. That’s the story. I got you Joe Biden. You slipped and said, Mitt Ronnie’s gonna put people back in chains. And, like, that’s how political media was for my whole life.
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:42

    Right? It was this, I was part of it. I was the one that was feeding the ganaches to their borders. Be like, look at this slip that Obama just had. Like, like, you gotta So that’s how they’re covering this.
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:50

    And sometimes it’s stupid. Gotcha journalism was always stupid. So sometimes Donald Trump is a victim of this, just like Joe Biden is sometimes a victim this where, you know, where where the media upset or table obsesses over some, like, snippet that isn’t exactly what they meant to say, and that’s a gaffe coverage, and that’s stupid. But, like, how do you do but then when somebody comes to me in their next sentence is, oh, well, Donald Trump is treated unfairly. That’s why I’m like, no.
  • Speaker 3
    0:28:14

    No, Donald Trump gets the best treatment of any politician in history by the media, and everybody, mega people come and get so mad at me, And National View, people be so mad at me for saying that, but that is true. Because, like, if the if somebody is every day is lying and smearing people, and and and threatening to overturn the democracy, then really, if we’re being fair, every day, the front page of the New York Times the first story on ABC News should be Donald Trump lied again today. Donald Trump threatened to overthrow our democracy again today. And if that happened, then everybody would be like, Oh, look how the media is just the DNC. The media is doing the DNC.
  • Speaker 3
    0:28:52

    Well, I’m sorry. If you nominate a person that fucking lies and that tries to storm, that inside of the storming of the capitol, then that’s gonna be the news every day. Like, that was your fault. You have responsibility.
  • Speaker 2
    0:29:03

    This is exactly my point, though. They should be doing that. Right? Mike Pence isn’t going to endorse Donald Trump. You won’t vote for Donald Trump.
  • Speaker 2
    0:29:12

    The guy’s vice president, it is it’s like a one day story, two day story, and it’s over. There was a fire hose of falsehoods in that. Why? Why grabbed the one thing that was like not the most offensive thing. It because it looked like it you I’m sorry.
  • Speaker 2
    0:29:28

    We have to be better. These are gimmees to the other side. These are gimmees to the other side. We have to be better and locked up in our messaging, and make sure that we are hitting him on things he actually said, not things that they’re able to skate around on. Was an easy one to skate around on.
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:44

    So so the question then is who is we? And No. But the
  • Speaker 2
    0:29:47

    the the the media is absolutely ignoring everything right now. They’re not covering any of the crazy things that he’s saying. And instead, now we have bloodbath discourse.
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:55

    I I feel like the bloodbath discourse At least in the mainstream sort of bubbles I float around in has been a lot of self flagellation and people saying, kinda what you just did, which is, again, proving why those people, including you, Sarah, are the good guys.
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:13

    Andrew Edgar and I were talking about because he had sort of an anti anti anti like he was doing the anti backlash. And I just was like, who did I see? I saw, maybe it was Ian Bremer, like, there’s sort of one other person, and he who I’ve and I felt the exact same way as him. He was just like, just listen to it. It’s Plainers Day, the guys in the middle of a long rift about the auto industry.
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:34

    Most of the discourse has been where you are. I don’t think so.
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:37

    I mean, I’ve gotten everybody because people were telling me to delete my tweet when I was like, we shouldn’t do this.
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:44

    That’s a mistake.
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:45

    Okay. Fine. I I just It it is it’s a little bit I’m sorry. I know, these are gonna tie them to things that sound unrelated, but to me, they are related. It is Fanny Will Saletan is every unforced error that is gonna make up the totality of this campaign, and it is deeply frustrating.
  • Speaker 2
    0:31:03

    Like a lot of the things that I saw defending this is like, well, but the media, you know, never talks about this. We’re so fine. Let’s tell them to talk about this. Put on the front page that he played an alternate national anthem and is celebrating the January six insurrectionists and calling them hostages. We should have a lot of discourse about that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:31:24

    Don’t take the one other thing where, like, frankly, I don’t even think it’s up for debate what he was talking about, but, like, it’s at minimum, deeply debatable, and so many other things aren’t.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:33

    Sure. I the problem Sarah Longwell that I mean, this machine that is the pro democracy coalition is so big and has so many moving parts that there is not I mean, they’re just gonna be cups. Right? They’re gonna be Fony Willis’s who make bad decisions. They’re gonna be you know, five reporters from your headline writers at various mainstream publications who who do suboptimal things like this.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:01

    Be and there because there is no, command and control structure. It’s just, you know, it’s it’s it’s eighty million people trying to save America all doing their own thing. And I I guess I’m a little more sublime that, like, these things are going to happen And there is nothing we can do to prevent them from happening. And the fact that our side tries to self correct and tries to be honest about this, is why we can look around and say, we’re not the baddies. Right?
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:30

    Because that doesn’t happen on the other side. No. Nobody at Bright Bart ever is like, Look, were we unfair Cassidy Hutchinson? Like, that that doesn’t happen on that side.
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:38

    I’m also genuinely this is a genuine question So I guess maybe it’s just on maybe the answer is it’s just unfair. But, like, there was an entire impeachment ecosystem of the current president an entire media ecosystem on the right supporting a totally fraudulent impeachment based on made up shit. There’s no Oh, woe is me? Like, oh, did we take Hunter a little out of context? Did we take Joe out of context?
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:04

    There’s no panel. Brett Bear’s panel isn’t isn’t contemplating whether James Comer is maybe victimizing dotting Joe Biden and how Joe Biden is a victim of unfair attacks. I just, like okay. I hear you. Like, I hear you.
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:20

    Like, it was, like, the some of those headlines were wrong about it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:33:24

    Here’s what I care about. I care about giving them an excuse to dismiss the legitimate criticisms Like, I’m sorry that we have to be so much better than the other side. Like, to me, the least compelling arguments are the ones about how the right wing media and mega voters behave because we’ve got a very specific task in front of us. Which is to get to these people who get turned off by Trump, but also get turned off to the what they think is overheated or unfair or, you know, sort of smearing of Trump, that’s just too much. And maybe it’s because I listen to the voters and I hear it all the time, but, like, I could hear the second it happened, that they were gonna win, that the the blood back discourse was gonna be one by people who say, see what they do to Trump, see how they take him out of context.
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:19

    And to me, just being like a regular person who hates Trump, but who can listen to the context of something. I was like, this is out of context. And this is gonna hurt us more than it’s gonna help and we should be focusing on the things that he does say. And I think that is it’s eight months out. We have got to
  • Speaker 3
    0:34:36

    get people. Question for you, actually,
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:37

    though, with
  • Speaker 3
    0:34:37

    the voters.
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:37

    Okay. How
  • Speaker 3
    0:34:38

    do you get those voters? To be more upset or to be equally upset that the Republicans have fabricated a smear about corrupt Joe Biden that was planted maybe by a Russian stooge and held hundreds of hearings about it, hundreds of hours of hearings about it, and that Joe Biden and his family have been victimized by these lies. How do you get them to to when you’re in a focus group say that? Rather than, oh, poor poor Donny Trump was smeared again because they said that he meant a bloodbath. I mean, he kind of didn’t really mean a bald Like, I I I don’t know the answer to that.
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:12

    It’s like if all we’re doing is self flagellating all the time, isn’t that giving them? You know what I mean? Like, How do how do you break through?
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:20

    Okay. Do you know what the number one indicator is of a voter who is persuadable, especially on things like, I don’t think the election was stolen. Like, I might vote for Joe Biden. Like, what do you think the number one thing is that we that helps us know whether or not they are reachable and persuadable.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:39

    I would assume it is they don’t think the election was stolen. Or do you need a different different kind of demographic marker
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:45

    or college?
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:45

    So I’m sorry. I don’t mean to ask you guys a question, like, like, we’re in a class. Okay. I’ll just the The diff the thing that happens is, so yeah, college education, whatever. The number one thing is is that they have a media mix that includes, like, local TV or CNN.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:00

    They also watch Fox. Right? So, like, but they’ve got a medium mix. And so they’re the noise, right? So so much of politics is like, how do you turn the volume up on certain narratives so that things break through?
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:14

    And it’s wild to see what breaks through and what doesn’t, what lives in a DC bubble, and what doesn’t, what people are, do you know? Right now, there are evangelicals all over this who have no idea that Mike Pence will not vote for Donald Trump, will not endorse Donald Trump. I’m Because the volume’s not very high on it. It’s like the entire
  • Speaker 3
    0:36:32

    you see the thing about the Fox News number of minutes that was spent on this? It was hilarious. It was like the the it happened on Fox News. Interview happened on Fox News, and it was like in the twenty four hours after that, it was like a hundred minutes were spent on this on CNN. Three minutes were spent on Fox.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:47

    That’s right.
  • Speaker 3
    0:36:48

    But butts didn’t even cover the news that broke on their network about Mike Pence not endorsing Donald Trump.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:54

    That’s exactly right. And so the The the answer, and even, like, they’re running a smear like, we are not talking about the things that matter. And I think that the media this is one of those we’re always fighting the last war. The media, whatever that is. Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:07

    But like this big amorphous blob got the message loud and clear that they were somehow promoting I think there’s a few things going on, but one of them was they were giving him too much airtime for all of his misinformation. And so now nobody carries his things live. And as a result, people don’t watch and they get him from these clips that go viral on the internet. Right? We’re not seeing how much he’s disintegrated like he was always nuts, but like he is saying even more insane things.
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:33

    He has lost a step and people aren’t seeing it nearly as much. And so we have got to turn the volume up, not on what Republicans say about Biden and pushing back on their misinformation, you have to turn the volume up on crazy stuff Trump says. And when we get it wrong, and we give them the opportunity to say, no, that wasn’t look how disingenuous you guys are, I think that that is, like, I think that’s an unforced error and we shouldn’t do it. We, like, I see the thing is I do think we should call on the media to cover more. JBL staying in the triad the other day about Mike Pence, where it’s like the New York Times, like, honest to god.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:06

    I think the thing was like, won’t vote for Joe Biden. You know? My pet won’t vote for
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:11

    Joe Biden.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:13

    Yeah. It’s like, what what insanity is this? Like, you’re telling me you shouldn’t have every editorial should be who’s done a historical look back to figure out how vice presidents have treated former presidents how historically anonymous anomalous this is. Anyway, I think we should be better.
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:30

    The National reviewed it. There was a message from Dan Mcgolfin about how that about what would have happened if Andrew Johnson would have not endorsed Lincoln. Were we supposed to care about that? It’s like, well, part of the problem there is that Lincoln was a good one. And Andrew Johnson is a bad one.
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:43

    So so your counter factual is inverted a little bit. Does your account not quite the right counter factual? But, yeah, I hear you. Yeah. No.
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:49

    We all agree on that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:50

    Can I ask a not very nice question? So we we often Is
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:55

    it not nice to me or somebody else?
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:56

    Because No. No. About human nature. Not nice about human nature. We often say on this show that the noise machine, the the wave of Bulwark, that it overwhelms people, and it doesn’t matter if it’s wrong.
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:12

    And if it gets corrected a day later, because the correct only hits, like, five people and the initial charge hits a hundred people. What if that’s true on this? I’m not saying more that’s what I’m saying. It’s not a very nice question. I’m I’m so I’m not not saying that it justifies it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:27

    I’m not saying anything like that, but I’m asking purely as a nuts and bolts question. Is it possible that the bloodbath story actually, the, you know, like a hundred people hear the story and think it’s think it’s bad, and but only five people hear the correction and that the, you know, he’s unfit. Because, you know, I’m saying, like, it we do think that the other way. Like, when it’s about Biden, we think, like, everybody heard that they were trying to impeach him and the Hunter laptop from but they didn’t hear about the Russian guy who made it up.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:58

    Maybe that’s true, but also, it’s wrong. Like, I I don’t know.
  • Speaker 3
    0:40:03

    Yes.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:03

    I can’t I can’t let go of this like and I saw a lot of this online, the sentiment of, like, why would you go to bat for trump? Anything you do to go to bat for him? I am
  • Speaker 1
    0:40:14

    because you’re a good person who goes back to the truth.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:17

    I’m not going back for trouble. I’m going back for, like, what I thought was the true thing. And also what I think is a deep distraction and a bad way for us to operate over the next eight months because the narratives we wanna drive home about It would be one thing the reason they’re making up shit about Biden is because they don’t have real stuff to say about it. Right. That he’s doing badly.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:35

    With Trump, there is a problem with a fire hose. Of horrible stuff. And to to to glum onto and create headlines around one of the few things that it wasn’t actually what he was saying. To me seems like a a big mistake.
  • Speaker 3
    0:40:50

    Can I just throw in we just throw it kinda?
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:52

    No one’s gonna like this. And I understand that. No.
  • Speaker 3
    0:40:53

    I think they should hear. I want I’m coming to Sarah’s defense list because it’s interesting. This pair is very well with the daily pod that you haven’t listened to yet because it’s not up. They take with Steven Hayes. So the dispatch today, And his big complaint about Never trumpers is that they, you know, shine Biden’s turds too much, you know, rather than speaking trip in
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:12

    my and phrases in the English language, but go ahead.
  • Speaker 3
    0:41:14

    I’m sorry. Yeah. I’m pretty sure I used that phrase. I don’t and I don’t I don’t wanna
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:20

    It’s a call hell characterized. Sorry.
  • Speaker 3
    0:41:23

    It’s it’s sakes. So I’ll characterize what I said back to him, which is in line. That’s what Sarah’s saying here. Actually over the course of the next seven months, and I want our listeners that love Joe Biden to hear this most clearly.
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:34

    I’m listening to him.
  • Speaker 3
    0:41:35

    Most helpful thing JBL that you can do for Joe Biden to re I think Sarah I’m interested in your view on this to to reach those focus group voters. The swing voters over the next seven months is to say Joe Biden is losing a step probably. Like, he’s getting old. He’s made some mistakes. I, you know, that I I don’t love the resistance med medias treatment of him all the time.
  • Speaker 3
    0:42:01

    I have other concerns, but by the way, he is a million times better than Donald Trump, even still acknowledging all my concerns about him, and I’m going to support Joe Biden Anyway. And to me, I feel like there’s a sense like, oh, the best thing that you can do to help Joe Biden is to be a fanboy. And that’s not really true. Right? Like, the people that you’re trying to get to are not Joe.
  • Speaker 3
    0:42:22

    They they’re the double haters. They’re the epoxy on both their houses. So isn’t wouldn’t you think Sarah, that the that way to get to them? It’s be like, yes, a pox on his house. And also, it’s way nicer than the fucking shanty down the street.
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:35

    Yeah. Here’s the thing. I also think I think people should do what they think is true. If JBL loves Joe Biden and thinks that he’s amazing and wants to fanboy about him, he should because somebody does need to tell just from a purely utilitarian political standpoint. Someone needs to tell positive stories about Joe Biden, and that’s why I think it should be democratic surrogates that I’m always begging to get out there.
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:55

    For my role and even look, and I actually I I think that Joe Biden has actually done a number of things poorly. I think he’s done a number of things actually very well. And so, like, in I am fine with Joe Biden, especially on the foreign policy from the last you know, year or two. He has been excellent. And I but I’d know from the campaign that we’re running with Republican voters against Trump listening to these people that the thing that is going to move them and the thing that feels authentic to them, or if they say, I have never voted for a Democrat in my life.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:28

    They say, I don’t like Joe Biden. I disagree with Joe Biden, but, like, I cannot and will not vote for Donald Trump, and Joe Biden’s fine. Like, or I’ll live with it or I’ll hold my nose, whatever. That is authentic to how this election’s gonna be decided at the margins. It depends who you’re talking to.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:44

    Do you wanna tell a shiny story about Joe Biden? Go ahead, but, like, we’re building an anti truck coalition. Not a pro Joe Biden.
  • Speaker 3
    0:43:49

    Oh, really?
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:50

    We’re building an anti trump coalition. Yeah. Okay.
  • Speaker 3
    0:43:52

    Yeah. That’s a good point.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:53

    And this is where the Steve Hayes, I don’t know what he said. I can’t wait to listen to this podcast, but like their editorial, the dispatch is editorial that’s like, let me tell you why Trump is bad and let me tell you why Joe Biden is bad and why, ugh, gosh, who can decide? Makes me wanna take my computer, throw it through a window, and then follow it out. And and what it is is it is number one, they don’t believe it. They don’t believe it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:44:16

    They can do every single one of these baseball crank types. Can do a threat assessment. Between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. And, like, it’s not close. It’s just not.
  • Speaker 3
    0:44:29

    Well, that’s an agreement that we have.
  • Speaker 1
    0:44:34

    Okay. Cassidy Hutchison. Go.
  • Speaker 2
    0:44:36

    Don’t know
  • Speaker 3
    0:44:37

    what I’m trying to do once they’re prosecuted. Because, blah, blah, blah, Tony Ornado lied to her, you know, supposedly, the story that she told for the January sixth committee about how Trump wanted to go to the Capitol and lunged at the Secret Service per person is not true, but, like, not that the facts ever matter in Trump’s stories, but but it What Cassie Edgson testified was that Tony Ornado told her that that’s what happened. Who’s
  • Speaker 1
    0:45:00

    the former secret
  • Speaker 3
    0:45:01

    service person who became his. Yeah. It became a security guy. And so, really, what we know is that the Tony Rornado lied once. He either lied to see Hutchinson to butch out to butch up trump and make it seem like going to the capitol.
  • Speaker 3
    0:45:13

    Or he’s lying now to try to cover Trump’s ass. So that’s all we know is Tony Tony are not as a liar. We know that for sure. But Trump now wants to take that and and blame that lion cast. You have just sent in prosecutor based on his bleats.
  • Speaker 3
    0:45:25

    And and the the what is relevant here because obviously Cassie Edgeson is right and Trump is wrong. And something the bill and I have been talking about is that just this incentive structure of a Trump two point o of of saying I am going to salute and and pardon the January sixth writers. I’m gonna salute and pardon anybody that does what I wanna do against the law. And I will prosecute anybody that speaks actual truth that is that whistle blows against me is maybe even I even like probably less than leaving NATO, but like maybe the second most dangerous thing that he’s definitely gonna do. Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:04

    That is that is
  • Speaker 1
    0:46:05

    It is a low Certainly governance. What he is doing is he’s showing us how he’s going to govern
  • Speaker 2
    0:46:11

    He’s definitely going to go after the January sixth committee folks. Like, he will try to make Liz Cheney. Like, he will try to hold he will try to do and this is the thing. Can I just back to on messaging about this, Donald Trump is telling us that his he’s running for retribution? Okay?
  • Speaker 2
    0:46:28

    And that is why he will he will make a circus out of prosecutions against people who prosecuted him. And I don’t think it’s it’s not like a stretch. It’s not like overheated. It’s not TDS. Say that’s what he’s gonna do.
  • Speaker 2
    0:46:39

    He’s telling us he’s gonna do it. We can see it. How it would happen. But this is why for Trump, You know, I was on, Chris Wallace’s, like, Saturday show with Cary swisher, last week and your buddy, John McCormick. You know what?
  • Speaker 2
    0:46:52

    It has a point. And she was she she had this, like, messaging advice where everything about Trump should be, racist, rapist, fascist. Like, just over and over again, rapists, racist, fascist. And I disagree with that completely. And the the part that I do agree with though is the repetition of specific things that we want people to understand about Trump.
  • Speaker 2
    0:47:18

    This time around, and the way that you set a frame that then all the things he does layers into it. And so to me, the number one thing is that he’s a lunatic who’s going to be surrounded by other lunatics. Right? Cause voters understand the idea that, like, a president doesn’t do everything themself. And a lot of people’s rationale for Trump the first time was, well, he’ll be surrounded by good people.
  • Speaker 2
    0:47:38

    You know, Mattis will be there. The institutions will stay by. But it’s not the case this time. He’s talking about bringing back Manafort. He’s talking about putting back Mike Flynn.
  • Speaker 2
    0:47:47

    Like, he is a lunatic who will be surrounded by other lunatics, people who try to help him steal the election. Good people will not work for him. That’s one thing. Then the other thing though that, to me, this seems about as simple and as straightforward, which is that Trump is running for himself. He’s not running because he has some vision for the country, or he has something he wants to do for people.
  • Speaker 2
    0:48:08

    The retribution that he seeks is for the people who’ve persecuted him. It is all about his grievances. It is not about the reason he, like, struck a nerve in twenty sixteen is because shared grievances with the voters. He’s not doing that now. It’s his grievance.
  • Speaker 2
    0:48:24

    And so the idea that he is running to stay out of jail and he is running to get people to give him money because he is now poor because he owes half a billion dollars. That is something that voters understand about his motivation. And I think that focusing on those things, focusing on the January sixth. If not, I just whatever, I’m not gonna go back to the bloodbath thing. But I think the fact that he is gonna be a lunatic surrounded by other lunatics and that he is running for himself.
  • Speaker 1
    0:48:52

    What about loser Does that does that fit into your view of it? I I mentioned it only because when when I was on the focus group with you, one of the things that jumped out to me was that the persuadable Trump voters all had in common they thought he lost.
  • Speaker 3
    0:49:08

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:49:08

    And so is hammering the fact that he lost in twenty twenty a key to try to wedge people off or is that, like, too boutique? That’s for targeted message? No. I
  • Speaker 2
    0:49:18

    don’t think it’s boutique. I think that’s fine. I think it’s I think it’s good. I think it’s a broad thing. I don’t know that it says forward looking.
  • Speaker 2
    0:49:24

    Right? Like, you want it to be forward looking and about how it’s going to impact the lives of people. And so the idea that he would be a lunatic surrounded by other lunatics, who cannot be trusted with the government or anything like, you know, any any of the important things the president does and the fact that he has no interest in helping them with the things that they care about. To me, seem about that seems about voters and not just about, like, whether Trump’s I mean, I do think that I do think there’s a lot of wisdom in the idea that, when we focus on, like, the dictator stuff or he’s an autocrat, that that tends to actually work in his favor a little bit on the strength, how much voters want strength in somebody. You hear it all the time.
  • Speaker 2
    0:50:05

    And I think that that sometimes plays into things we don’t want it to.
  • Speaker 1
    0:50:09

    Alright. Good show, insanely long show. We’re gonna
  • Speaker 3
    0:50:14

    I rant about Aileen. We don’t really see it as a JBL take. Let’s do a JBL take for the YouTube feed.
  • Speaker 1
    0:50:20

    No. That’s for the Secret Show. Sarah, you and I, on Friday morning, who sit down and do Secret Podcast we’re gonna talk about my triad from today in which I
  • Speaker 3
    0:50:33

    I’ve already read it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:50:34

    Personally, Literally have the opportunity to help Donald Trump make his half billion dollar bond.
  • Speaker 3
    0:50:44

    You’re
  • Speaker 1
    0:50:44

    I I get a vote in whether or not I literally get a vote. You gotta read the trump said.
  • Speaker 3
    0:50:50

    Beta is in JBL’s hands.
  • Speaker 1
    0:50:51

    You gotta read the triad to get the whole story. I’m not overselling it. It’s amazing. And maybe you’ll have read it by Friday morning. Who could say?
  • Speaker 2
    0:50:59

    Maybe. Who could say?
  • Speaker 1
    0:51:00

    Alright, guys. Great show long show. We’ll do this again next week. See you.
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