Monsters Behind Every Door (The Secret Podcast PREVIEW)

Hey, there. It’s JBL on the Secret Show with Sarah Longwell today. We talked about the Colorado Supreme Court decision. We talked about pardoning Trump. Then we talked about Chris Christie.

Here’s the show.

I have gotten, I get my blood up a little bit sometimes. I’m on the phone with the quarters, and so I’ve been quoted in a couple major news publications, both the Washington Post in the New York Times. Somehow I became the, like, there’s, like, they drew with these stories. They do these stories about, like, the chorus grows louder for people who want Chris Christie to drop out. And then somehow I’m the one quoted in there as though I’m leading this chorus, but I’m not.

I just when they called them, said

The sausage gets made. Somebody decides, I’m gonna write piece about how there’s a chorus for people to call in. And what they do is they then call people and ask them to comment about it. Mhmm. And then that’s the chorus.

They’ve they’ve assembled the choir.

And, like, in the first one that I think it was the last time I posed, I was just, like, I was, you know, I was kinda pissy and they were, like, why do you think? There was, like, why do you think Chris Christie won’t drop out? And I was, like, I don’t know, because time’s a flat circle. And we’re just destined to repeat, beat, for beat, everything that happened in the twenty sixteen election. And now he’s just gonna criticize Nikki Haley, and make sure that she can’t wait, you know, and I was just, like, kinda shouting about it.

And then that ended up being my quote.

Did they go to an all caps?

No. But That

would have been great.

And then I don’t know what I said to the New York Times. So it was equivalent if he should he should drop out. And and The thing is, this is one where now, it’s at I’m in tension with a lot of my friends again because the difference between Nikki Haley, and Chris Christie is that Chris Christie, for whatever you think about him from before. Like, I argue Tim about this because Tim really holds a grudge on Christie. And do you too?

I can’t remember.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I don’t really hold grudges against anybody. I’m very living that live kind of guy scenario.

God. I’ve never heard you say it’s Christmas, Jaden. Don’t tell lies. Don’t tell lies. I just

like to take people as they are.

Okay. You have never met somebody who with with the grudgekeeping of you. Anyway, so I just I think Chris Christie has been terrific this I mean, you know, he he I I can I can quarrel with some things? But he has been the clearest of the truth tellers. In fact, he’s been the only truth teller.

I mean, Ace, I guess, you know what I’m but he’s the only one who’s managed to stay on stage prosecute the case, raise enough money, you know, get a little bit just enough in the polls to be viable. But like Chris Christie cannot win a Republican primary. His negatives are super high, including in the state where he is currently pulling the best, which is at ten percent, which is New Hampshire, which is filled with independence, who can, vote, in the New Hampshire primary, and that is why it is a state for your Nikki Haley’s and your Chris Charlie Sykes. Now I’ve done my own polling in that state. And one of the things we know and other people confirm this is that Most of Charlie Sykes support if he drops out goes to Haley.

Now Nicki is really having a little bit of a rush in New Hampshire. There was, one that I thought was just a little bit implausible yesterday that had her just to four points from Trump. Four points away. But there was another one that had her at thirty and trumpet forty four, which I think is much closer to the truth. And if she picked up Chris Charlie Sykes ten percent, She is in a real knife fight with Trump.

And the thing is is that I think so somebody asked the question today, a good faith question of Well, but what if he stays through Iowa drops out before New Hampshire and endorses her? Isn’t that isn’t that better? Or doesn’t that work? And the reason I don’t think it does is I think she will be helped in I so that from the focus groups, if you go back and listen to my conversation with wit. One of the main there’s voters are actually like, yeah.

Nikki’s okay. I don’t hate her the way that they hate Pence and Christie or whatever. She seems put together whatever. She’s not going anywhere though. Like, it’s she’s kind of establishment.

She’s kind of a rhino. Like, they’re not nasty about it, but they don’t take her seriously. And so I think one of her big hurdles is not everybody’s kinda talking about like, well, you should have an electability argument for her. And they mean electability against Biden. And I think there needs to be an electability argument against Trump that she can win somewhere.

And so if she pulls ahead or even in a state like New Hampshire, and she looks viable. That gives her an opportunity to come in Second, in Iowa, still probably a distant second, but, like, DeSantis is is now sort of dropping like a stone. She comes in over, over performs in Iowa a second, wins in New Hampshire, and then I think it’s a tough one for her to win in South Carolina, but it is the only path. Like, her only path, this is the only thing you can do is change momentum going into South Carolina where suddenly people are like, man, like, this is the this is anybody’s theory of the case who has a theory of the case is that people are like, Trump’s got all these legal issues, which I don’t think anybody cares about. But, you know, and, like, maybe he’s gonna be in, you know, jail by the time the general election happens.

And she wins New Hampshire. She’s all the headlines are about her, and suddenly she starts to get really competitive. Now think anybody’s taking a peek at the super Tuesday states can look at that scenario and be like, that seems likely. But it’s not impossible. K?

It’s not impossible. It’s seven percent chance. So I the question is then Do you call on Christie to drop out so that Nikki has that path? Or on the flip side, do you say Even if Nikki Haley makes a bit of a run for it here. Ultimately, what she does is carves out twenty to twenty five percent of the normies for herself.

And then she can’t beat Trump, so she drops out and endorses him. Thereby building the permission structure, for Normies to go ahead and support Trump. Right? And she gets to be, the secretary of the state department. And, what is that?

She gets to be secretary of state. And she cuts a deal. And a bunch of donors go, oh, Nikki’s gonna be secretary of state. Well, that’s good. That that that’s it’s a solid hand on things.

And everybody decides then to support Trump and, you know, gets treated like a normal candidate by all the Republicans. That’s a scary scenario. Super scary. And also a much higher percentage chance that that scenario happens, then that Nikki gets a real run at it. But let me hold on.

I’m just gonna finish my math though.

No, please. I love it.

Because I still come down on the side. Of Christie should drop out and endorse Haley. And here’s why. And it’s because of a different percentage calculation, which is. If there is any percent chance that somebody could take out trump in the primary, I think we have to take it.

I just do. I I and I it would it would it would go against literally everything that I believe I know about voters from having listened to them all these years for them to go for Nikki Haley. But I think Christie you know, taking shots at Trump. I I don’t I just I don’t think it’s helping enough, and I think Nikki making a real race out of it is important. But I’m I’m open for debate on this.

This is what I believe. I do think he should drop. I because part of me too is just like a little annoyed with some of the, like, no. I’m just gonna, you know, I like, he did this before. Right?

He craters the only other viable alternative against Trump and understand that that the viability now is even lower than last time, but I don’t know. I think he’s gotta do it. What do you think?

It’s not crazy. So everything you just laid out makes sense. And I I that as a judgment, is a totally reasonable judgment. I probably come down on the other side of it for the following reasons. I think that Haley’s chances with Christie dropping out and endorsing her are still, like, one in a hundred, not, like, seven percent.

Right? If it was if if I thought she had a one in five chance of beating Trump, then I’d be like, Chrissy get out. Right? You know, I’m not saying she has to have, like, a heads up even even fifty fifty. I mean, like, if she had, like, a real chance of it, you know, even one in ten.

She had a ten percent chance to stop Trump. I’d be like, Chris, to get out gotta take this. But I think it’s such a long shot. And so unlikely. And I think there is a real downside of having Christie get out now, normalize Haley and then having Haley go and just hop on side team Trump.

Mhmm.

Whereas if Christie stays in, goes to the New Hampshire debate stage and roasts hailey for, you know, I’m not sir. But, you know, like, that makes his Donald Trump is unfit argument, doesn’t endorse, and then when he gets out, then maybe we wind up getting him to endorse Biden come the summer. That you know, how much does that help? Around the margins? I don’t know.

Could that move five thousand votes in Pennsylvania? Maybe? Maybe Chris Christie having done that could move five thousand voters in Pennsylvania. And you know what? That might be important.

You know, like, I I could see that. And I’d rather roll the dice that way then roll the dice on. But if he stays in, Nikki, it goes from a one in a hundred to a two in a hundred chance.

Yeah. So this is I I and I take that point. And I I I very well I’ll remember this, you know, because I’m gonna choose a side. Like, I’m choosing a side. Is that Christie should drop out.

And I may look back and be like, that was the wrong bet. Like, I’m aware.

These are all marginal choices. It’s not like one of these is determinative of who’s gonna win or lose in twenty twenty four. Right? These are just like little things working for edges around a

And you’re right that at some of this could be just comes down to some of my fundamental optimism because I’m I’m like aware of this trap. That of her endorsing him. There’s also though the potential for, like, if she goes the distance, right, she goes further And it depends on whether she plays to win or not. But if she starts

never gonna play the win.

Okay. Maybe not. Maybe not. I was pretty I watched her on the I’ve really been wrestling with this because I watched her on that she did the Christian broadcast Bulwark. They’ve all been doing their sit downs with the guy there.

DeSantis’s was actually interesting because they asked him, like, what his one regret was and his regret was. That Trump got indicted because that, you know, took over the primary. And I DeSantis stopped making excuses for sucking. Like, just stop it.

It’s the mean Manhattan Dah. It’s his fault.

Yeah. It’s your fault, bro. Just accept it. Okay? Nobody did this to you.

You did this to

you, Ron DeSantis. How could Ron DeSantis or anybody else have possibly have known Trump would have gotten indicted. Right? Like, I’m sorry. If you if you looked at this and you didn’t think it was possible that Donald Trump was gonna get indicted before the primaries, then What the fuck were you thinking?

Yeah. And so Nikki was on to, and this guy asked her twice. About whether or not she would rule out. Very clear question. Will you rule out being Donald Trump’s vice president, which incidentally DeSantis has ruled it out.

And she does this thing where she’s like, I don’t play for second. And this is offensive to ask, couldn’t, but she does not say no. And I don’t love it. And I think we did talk about this on the next level a little bit because the the way that Trump this is where his lizard brain works so well. He just He recognizes the thirst.

Right? And he’s able to Why

does he see it?

Yeah. He’s able to say, oh, no. I like Nikki. Vice president. I’m not ruling that out either.

Before he defenestrates her, you know, after she drops out and endorses him, and he whatever. Well, I don’t know. Maybe maybe he gives her opposite. I have

no idea. There are a lot, you know, people are people are making some very strong, strong recommendation for who I should pick. And I’m looking at a lot of people, and I can tell you that when we make our final decision, you people are gonna be very, very happy with it. But we’ll see, and we’ll see, we’ll see if people are nice to me or not. Yeah.

This is what he’ll do. That’s

Speaking of insurrections, there would be an insurrection from Mega if he chose Nikki Haley. Like, I mean, he can’t say it.

She not understand that.

I don’t wanna I don’t know. I don’t know where these guys blinders come from. Anyway, I do worry about Nikki. I don’t think that she has proven herself. I so I feel like I’m arguing myself out of it, but, like, I’ll just make my really quickly the main thing again, which is you get two shots to stop Trump.

That’s it. The primary and the general.

I think the primary shot is over. That’s the I I I was with you the whole way. I just don’t think that there is I feel an asteroid.

I get

it. I don’t think that door is open anymore.

It’s tough. This is I was tweeting about this last night that you know, there’s just that there’s a tension for me between my analysis, which essentially agrees with you. And, like, my unyielding belief that we have to do everything we can to stop him. And that, like, anytime she’s got a little momentum, I just I can’t stop myself from both rooting for her, but also being like, yes. Yes.

More of this. We gotta do this. Any chance, any opening, any crack. I wanna I wanna take it. But I hear it.

And

it’s not a crazy look at at, like, with everything else. It’s not a crazy judgment. Right? You can see it both ways. Alright.

Well, you haven’t gotten it yet, but I have written a super duper optimistic newsletter to close out twenty twenty three. Arguing I’m just gonna leave this here, that while it is clear we are heading into a moment of crisis in twenty twenty four. And that the form of this crisis may take or will take

could be any of,

like, a dozen different different things. It’s gonna manifest differently than maybe we can imagine, but something bad is is coming. Something wicked this way comes. But that, we are heading into this moment, actually, on very good ground. And, honestly, we’re gonna meet it on terrain that is as favorable to our side meaning the side of, like, liberal democracy, is we could’ve realistically hoped for.

Mhmm. You could paint any number of very plausible scenarios. In which we would be walking into twenty twenty four thinking, holy shit the American experiment is over. Right? If inflation was at seven percent, if, sorry, if if unemployment was at seven percent, if we are mired in recession, If we still had troops in Afghanistan, if, the Russians had taken Kiev in the first month.

Right? And any number of things you look at and say, Oh, yeah. Like, you know, if Biden hadn’t been able to pass any legislation, if it had just been sort of, you know, gridlock for three years, you’d look at it and say, yeah. We’re totally fucked. But that’s not the case.

We we’ve we’ve got a very good economy. We no longer have troops in harm’s way. Out there in the world. We have a president who

Are you sure? I think those people think that Biden that we have troops in Israel that we’re And we’re fighting for Net Yahoo.

Yeah. I I can’t help what people think. I can just just cap with the the the real estate. Right? We have a guy who who really did try to give the Republican party space to rehabilitate itself if it had wanted to.

Like, he fed the good parts of the Republican Party. Right? He was out there making deals with the Republicans who were willing to make deals. Past a bunch of popular stuff, and has proven to have good political instincts for the most part. And maybe, like, could things be better?

Things can always be better. Right? No matter how good things are, things can always be better. But if we gotta if we gotta meet this moment, I’m okay with the ground that we’re gonna be standing on. There.

Look at me.

Look at me, especially because the yesterday’s was really dark.

Yeah. That’s right.

JV, it’s like it’s like you have light and dark inside you.

Hey, Sarah. Do you know there’s there’s actually more of the show?

Oh, there is. How much more?

There’s more so much more. All of the more it goes on for hours if people want to get the rest of the show. You you know what they have to do. Right?

I think they have to go to Bulwark Plus. Do they have to subscribe? What do they have to do?

Yes. They have to pay us money. Oh. Pay did me in his money. And go to the Bulwark dot com and subscribe to become a member of Bulwark.

All the good stuffs on the other side. Bye.