Support The Bulwark and subscribe today.
  Join Now

Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler: The Left Hits Biden Harder than Trump

February 27, 2024
Notes
Transcript
In our first crossover pod, Tim queries Yglesias and Beutler about Biden’s Gaza response, and why Dems aren’t holding Kushner hearings—or raising hell about the GOP’s promotion of fake oppo from a Russian spy. Then catch the tables getting turned on Tim on the Politix pod Wednesday.

show notes:

https://www.politix.fm/podcast

This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:08

    Hello, and welcome to the Bulwark podcast. Today’s show, we have a pair of Xennial Bros with Substack newsletter Matt iglesias. He’s a contrarian center left neo liberal, an author of slow boring, Brian Boitler. He’s a contrarian woke progressive from the author of off message. They co host a new podcast called politics, spelled with an x at the end to honor either Elon Musk or Latinx or Genx.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:32

    I’m not sure which. Boys. Malcolm X. Malcolm X. Oh, I should have had that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:38

    Welcome. I’m excited for this. We’re doing something special today. We’re trying something new. We’re gonna do a home and home where I’m gonna quiz you guys about democratic stuff on this feed.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:47

    And then you’re gonna turn the tables on me for the politics shell, which will come out tomorrow. At six AM. So people can get a double dose of this kind of I self identify as an elder millennial. Are you Jan X self identifying?
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:00

    I identify as, yeah, elder millennial. I’m eighty two, and I think the cutoff is eighty. So
  • Speaker 3
    0:01:06

    Yeah. Eighty one. I’m the I’m the oldest millennial.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:08

    But then I don’t wanna, like, derail you. Here. But, like, in my mind, the Elder millennial kinda is this, like, I feel like I have more in common with young Genex people than with mainline millennials just because of technology mostly.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:21

    Yeah. I don’t know. I have Peter Pan syndrome. So I I identify more with mid millennials than Genex people who I find sad. That’s all about our personal our personal mental issues, I think mostly.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:32

    Okay. Let’s do some work. We got the Michigan primary tonight. Biden versus uncommitted. After his star turn on the Bulwark podcast versus uncommitted.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:42

    I think Dean versus uncommitted is gonna be tight. Former US rep and presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke said on Friday that Democratic voters should vote uncommitted to show they’re unhappy with Joe Biden’s handling of Israel. Rashida to leave agrees with him. Guys, what is your sense? For, what is happening in Michigan tonight.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:01

    And do you think that people should be registering their unhappiness by voting for the ghost of Federal O’Rourke’s candidacy?
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:08

    Who do you wanna answer that question? Whoever,
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:10

    go first.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:11

    I think that at the end of the day, like, what is going to matter vis à vis this issue is whether the war comes to an end or pauses or the United States through Joe Biden get some distance from Benjamin Netanyahu and condemns what he’s doing to some degree. And it’s not really gonna be about, like, how people register their views about it in primaries. But to the extent that people wanna, like, register their disapproval, now is a much better time than, you know, six months from now or something like that. And so I kinda think it’s no harm, no foul, and maybe to the extent that it, like, motivates Joe Biden to realize that there’s a problem here. Politically for him and that there are more things that he could do to try to to try to hold the coalition together on this one issue.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:57

    Maybe it’s for the best, but I honestly don’t think it’s that big of a factor.
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:02

    Okay. So that presumes something not an evidence, I don’t think. Matt, Brian, says that Joe Biden has a policy problem here. Are we sure he does row Kana said that he said we cannot win Michigan with the status quo policy. There was an anonymous person in politico this morning saying that they he can’t win Michigan with the current policy.
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:18

    Meanwhile, I’m over here with the number trumpers going. All of these moderate Wall Street Journal Romney Romney voting Republicans have been begging for Joe Biden to give him their sister soldier moment, and he’s kind of done it. Here with regards to the Gaza protesters. And are we sure that it hurts him?
  • Speaker 3
    0:03:33

    I think this, to me, illustrates a kind of, like, pathological nature of current progressive politics, which is that there is this obsession with protesting Biden over Gaza. Right? So, like, progressive leaders influencers have created a political problem for Joe Biden And now they are spending all their time urging Joe Biden to address this political problem of their own creation. By creating disagreement. No.
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:02

    But you also know. I mean, I know people who are very passionate advocates for Palestinian rights. Some of them are like crazy people, whatever, but the the really sensible, really sane ones. Like, what they want is an independent Palestinian state. And b b netanyahu is not going to give them one, and Joe Biden is not going to be able to deliver one.
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:24

    So Biden can do a lot. To alienate pro is real voters by catering more to the views of Gaza protesters, but he’s not going to satisfy people who, like, want a complete transformation of the Israel Palestine conflict or of the longstanding American alliance with Israel For progressives, is it just like a catastrophic issue to have in the news? And, you know, if I could pull strings, I would, like, try to get people to, like, do abortion rights protests in red states. Like, that’s a good issue for Biden. Anything you can do on Gaza, like, is bad for Biden.
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:01

    And I think if you vote for uncommitted, you are going to generate headlines about Gaza, and that is going to help Trump win. Right? Like, if you say anything on Twitter about Gaza, that’s gonna help Trump win. And, like, it’s fine. If you want Trump to win, right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:16

    Like, if you want to polarize support for Israel, the best way to accomplish that probably is for Trump to win. And, like, Great, but I think that would be bad. I live in America. And I I I want the United States of America to be well governed, which means re electing Joe Biden.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:33

    I feel like that, like, Matt’s the policy guy, but there is a policy issue here. And, like, the reason there are lots of people in Michigan or at least enough maybe to to swing the state away from Joe Biden, who are upset about Joe Biden’s position on Israel is like the moral problem of what Israel’s doing in Gaza. Like, they don’t like it, and they don’t like the Joe Biden at least appears to support it. Right? Like
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:57

    Right.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:57

    And without, you know, completely upending how the US government, how any other president probably would have related to to Israel after October seventh. There are things that Joe Biden could say and do that would communicate to those people. I hear you and I agree, and it’s just a thorny thing to unwind. And there’s, like, been very little effort to do that. And I think it’s it’s achievable without, like, alienating some other large contingent of the like, there aren’t a lot of Democrats anymore who think BB Yahoo is some good guy.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:28

    We have audio. Joe, I did address this issue yesterday with an ice cream cone in hand. Yes. Let’s listen to that really quick. Let’s talk about that.
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:35

    You give us a sense of when you think that c file will start? Sir,
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:38

    well, I hope by the the beginning of the weekend. I mean, the end of the weekend. At least my my that security advisor tells me that we’re close, we’re close, we’re not done yet. And my hope is by next Monday, we’ll have a ceasefire. Alright.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:54

    So maybe it could have been better if he was not like he was literally like about to bite the cone when he said when he said this. So there’s a little bit of like a George bush. Like, let’s watch me drive kind of flashback. I was I was getting kind of night sweats watching that element of it. But the actual positioning, Matt, Again, I I think we should talk about the policy and what the moral policy and what the right policy is, but positioning wise, isn’t he in the right place?
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:18

    I mean, I think so. I mean, it depends what happens. Right? Like, I mean, he wants to get a ceasefire. That would be good.
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:25

    He’s trying to do it. He’s working on that. And I do think that, you know, this is a question where the politics is downstream of the like, the reality, right, not the position taking, but, like, what actually happens if there is an end to active conflict that netanyahu says, we won. Right? Then Biden could say, and we got a ceasefire and we stood with Israel.
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:49

    And then it’s not like everyone will be happy, but Most people would be happy with that. But, you know, it’s it’s challenging. I mean, I think an important thing that, you know, your perspective Tim, and your audience can provide is, like, I think that a lot of progressive minded people, like, don’t believe that there is a constituency of people who think that Donald Trump is bad and who voted for Joe Biden, but who wish Joe Biden was more moderate on policy issues. But, like, in fact, there are a lot of people who think that. Mean, it’s not a hundred million people, but it’s not zero people.
  • Speaker 3
    0:08:25

    And the biggest thing that disturbs me talking to Democrats is how little attention they pay to that question. Right? Like, I hear people talking a lot about how do we motivate young progressives? What do we do about Michigan protesters? And I unfortunately don’t hear a lot of people saying, like, how do we get people who voted for Gary Johnson in twenty sixteen and then voted for us in twenty twenty?
  • Speaker 3
    0:08:53

    How do we keep them inside the tent? Inside the coalition. When I think if you just, like, look objectively, like, that’s the problem Biden is facing politically. Like, he got some swing voters in twenty twenty, and now he is losing them.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:08

    Yeah. This is where the tactical element of this, I think comes into question. I’m interested in your view on this, Brian, because, like, objectively speaking. You know, I’m, like, probably not the best representative. You know, we had an interval work fight the other month about what was happening in Gaza, and I’m on, like, the squishy aside.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:22

    I I just really disdain BB. I don’t really think he has a plan, and I think that a lot of the, you know, actions have been pretty there’s been unnecessary carnage that has been happening in Gaza in attempts to achieve the stated effort of getting hostages out. So, like, I have you know, certain policy frustrations. But from a politics standpoint, there is a big constituency if you buy. You just look at the numbers.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:46

    Right? Like the the number of people that are you know, saying, oh, you know, glory to our martyrs versus the number of people that I generally support Israel. You know, in this fight, maybe not all of the particulars. The preponderance of them is on the generally supporting Israel side. And a lot of those people overlap with the swing voters you’re about your Atlanta suburbs, you know, Romney Biden voters.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:08

    And, like, my frustration, Brian, interested in your take on this is that, like, It feels like Biden and his allies aren’t even getting credit with those folks. Right? That he’s in this sour spot where he’s he’s getting all this pressure from the progressive left. And feels like he needs to cater to that. And so he’s not getting credit for the thing that he should be like, hey, guys.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:27

    You’ve been worried that I’m a puppet to the far left. And I’ve been demonstrating for four months now that I’m not actually a puppet to the far left. And if I was, my policy or my rhetoric on this would be very different. So how do you get out of that? Find?
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:42

    A few things to untangle there, I think. One is that, like, I don’t think it would be a good idea for Joe Biden to go to the camera and put his finger in the air and say, like, from the river to the sea. Right? That would be a mistake, and he would lose a lot of
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:55

    Okay. Stipulate it. Have agreement. We have three person agreement on that. That would be bad.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:59

    Also, it’s not clear to me that, like, these I wanna call them, like, these, like, trump realignment voters. These like, suburban Atlanta voters who are just, like, repulsed by Donald Trump is where Joe Biden is really, like, the locust of his
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:14

    Pete Street Dads problems.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:16

    Like, what I see is that Joe Biden entered office. He had beaten Donald Trump but not, like, vanquished him. And he kinda put together this plan to steal himself against the Trump. Revival or against you know, the Maga Movement picking a new figure head and and having to kinda wage a similar campaign in twenty twenty four. All over again, and it was to, like, focused all of his policy energy on revitalizing the industrial base in the Midwest to just get unemployment generally low to be, like, a good steward of the economy, and then to be, like, normal.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:52

    Right? Like, not ruffle feathers, just be kinda chill, tolerant, recede a bit, get out of people’s faces, people were exhausted by Trump, and they would thank him for, like, relieving them of of having to think about politics all the time. And that approach, I think, has not worked. And it’s not clear to me that the reason why is that Joe Biden didn’t volunteer here and there that I also happen to support fracking. Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:18

    Or whatever else.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:20

    Like Alright. Now you’re speaking my language. Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:22

    Like, I I just I don’t think that the, like, people who voted Obama than Trump then Biden are reverting to Trump because of single issue style obsessions that Joe Biden has disappointed him on. Like, they are just hearing constantly that Joe Biden is this doddering fool who caused inflation, who Like, maybe in some sense is responsible for the pandemic because their memories of that have gotten all fuzzy. And, like, the tactical solution for Biden, this problem is to build a time machine go back to twenty twenty one and adopt a more aggressive political strategy. But I kind of hear it’s like water’s too far into the bridge.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:04

    So this is my question on the on the river to the Secret. So Federman’s kind of done this or like couldn’t a handful of Democrats who agree with his policy. I assume that there are some you know, go out there and say the agitating on this? Like, wow. Look at the way that Joe Biden has stuck his finger in the eye of the campus last Excuse me.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:22

    Like, wouldn’t that help? Like, create news? Doesn’t that speak to, like, your tactical demands? I know if it doesn’t speak to your policy priors, but, like, doesn’t that speak to kinda your tactical
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:31

    I think that, like, to to resolve the specific political problems that seemingly exist around Biden’s positioning on Israel. I think you’d want, like, three basic things to break through to the public. One is that, like, Joe Biden is not some unique butcher in the, like, firmament of US politics. Like, you swap in basically any president including Trump from the past forty years, put them in office in twenty twenty three on October seventh, and their policy would be very similar to to Joe Biden. So he’s not, like, this kissingerian, like, uniquely insensitive to the plight of the Palestinians presence Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:11

    Okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:11

    We didn’t invade Iran
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:13

    Right.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:13

    In response to it. For example, we didn’t, like, in invade a different country.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:16

    I think that beyond that, you want two other things. One is you want people like Federman, being surrogates for Biden’s policy, like, just out in the media at campaign rallies wherever, And you also like, I would have liked Bernie Sanders as, like, the most prominent Jewish politician in the country to come out in a way that created space for Biden to break with Netanyahu and Netanyahu’s policies without opening him to a sort of bad faith attack that he’s, like, anti Semitic or anti Israel in some sense. And those pieces of surrogacy have just not really materialized in a way that I think is particularly helpful.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:57

    But Sure.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:58

    I don’t necessarily think it’s too late either, but it’s just been uncoordinated. And so it’s kinda this mess. And so I think that, like, for people who are dissatisfied with and I I don’t actually think polls show that people are dissatisfied with with Biden’s Israel policy. He’s like pulling it last I checked, like, fifty five, sixty percent on the issue. So it’s not like some kind of epic disaster nationwide.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:19

    It just hasn’t, like, that hasn’t lifted him to being a a popular president. And to the extent that you could make, like, elements of his Boning coalition, like, think more highly of his position. It would be, like, to to pull those three levers. And I just don’t it hasn’t really happened.
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:37

    To me, like, this is a problem not of Biden or of anything Biden should do about the campus left or not or Netanyahu or Israel, it It’s a question of, like, what do progressive minded people want out of life And you see it on Israel, but you see it on a broad suave of issues that I think the the left in America is like not that committed to defeating Donald Trump in twenty twenty four. They are very committed to their substantive policy agenda, which on some topics, Biden is pursuing quite vigorously. And on some topics, he isn’t, in which case, they dedicate all of their energy to attacking Biden even while acknowledging that Trump is worse. Right? Like, climate change activists protest against Biden.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:29

    Like Palestinian rights activists protest against Biden, but it’s not like they’re confused.
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:35

    Well, somebody’s president.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:37

    He’s the one who’s in shock. But, I
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:38

    mean, I’m saying that it’s it’s not a case of confusion. Like, I don’t hear them replaying the Ralph Nader tweetle D, Twittle D. Thing. Like, it is a tactical philosophy that, like, Biden is the president currently that they have more leverage over Biden than they do over Trump. And so that is what they choose to do with their time, which is fine.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:58

    I mean, everybody is entitled to do what they want with their time. But you should be honest is to say that a lot of the people who are most fired up I think
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:06

    it’s helped the Never Trumper media business model. Quite a bit because we’re the most fired up without stopping Trump.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:12

    That’s what I mean. And this is where I always find. I feel like Brian executes this kind of straddle where, like, he he wants to be with you, but then he he also wants to be with the leftists. But, like, this was a an argument that Democrats, I think, were really having a lot before COVID in in twenty nineteen, where one view that I associated with Biden at that time was this kind of like narrow anti trumpism. Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:37

    Like, we gotta go with a guy who’s gonna beat Trump. And then there was Elizabeth Warren, who she was talking about big structural change. Right? And, like, what was the point of that? The point of that was to say, we don’t want to just like decapitate Donald Trump from leadership in the United States, put a sane person in there.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:58

    We need big structural change. And Biden won the primary. But he did not win the argument. You know, like, people continue to have this debate over and over again across a whole swathe of issues. It’s like are Democrats trying to transform the country in profound ways or are they trying to not have Donald Trump be president?
  • Speaker 3
    0:18:22

    And Israel’s a particularly tough version of that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:26

    Brian? Yeah. So because Israel’s a tough version, I wanna I wanna try and because in general, on policy, she’s particularly now with Congress divided, like, for most questions, like, policy is a is second tier thing for me. And, like, the progressive, groups have their objectives, and Biden has his campaign and I’m just kinda like whatever. And, like, my main thing is just beat the orange guy.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:51

    Right?
  • Speaker 1
    0:18:52

    Yeah. Right.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:52

    And, like, I agree with Matt when he points out that, like, it would be in the best interest of the climate and of the Democratic party for climate activists to protest Republicans. Republicans on abortion. Right? Like, totally agree with that. There is like a a sphere of issues where, like, the biggest moral questions of the day and the most urgent ones where I kinda feel like you can’t just apply this kind of raw strategic calculus.
  • Speaker 2
    0:19:26

    Without at least gesturing in the direction of of what’s happening. Right? So, like
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:30

    Of what’s right. I respect you.
  • Speaker 2
    0:19:31

    And, like, I agree that, like, the left wing pro Palestine anti Israel activists do a version of this that I think can be really toxic. Right? Like, I I have agreed with them across, like, every line of their critique about, like, Israel’s pursuing a policy that’s indistinguishable from ethnic cleansing and
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:49

    Joe Biden. In distinguishable, maybe over stated?
  • Speaker 2
    0:19:51

    Well, I mean, if you add up what BB Netanyahu’s plans for Gaza and the West Bank art starts to look a bit like that. Right? Like, the point I’m trying to make is that I conceded to all of this Right? And that Biden was becoming complicit with it in some way and that this was, like, a moral problem, whatever the politics of it were. And, like, they all hate me because I won’t stipulate that Joe Biden supports genocide.
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:15

    Right? Or that this is a genocide that happening right now.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:17

    You haven’t done any genocide Joe TikToks?
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:19

    No. But but but, like, maybe here I’ll do the straddle again. Like Okay. Twenty five thousand Palestinianians dead. Like, it’s horrible, but I’d still wouldn’t say, like, there’s been a genocide in Gaza.
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:32

    But, like, there is no limiting principle to what yahoo’s doing. And at some point, the death count grows. And then these claims of genocide stop sounding to me like rhetoric and start being really hard to dispute. And that just tells me that this is, like, a very, very high stakes. And profound moral issue.
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:52

    And so I feel like pointing at the people saying that and saying, you should be talking about abortion instead is, like, don’t lose your humanity over this thing. Right? Like, at the same time, like, if if you give me a choice between, like, tell them that and Trump wins, like, obviously, I
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:09

    Okay. We did. I think eighteen more minutes on the Gaza dispute than the Bulwark podcast audience is looking for, but I found that very satisfying. Just closing the loop on Michigan really quick. Obama got eighty nine percent uncommitted ten point six in twenty twelve.
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:27

    How do you guys handicap whether Joe Biden will best that this evening?
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:31

    Can you repeat the numbers Obama got? Obama was eighty nine ten. Okay. Obama
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:36

    was eighty nine ten. There was ten point six uncommitted in twenty twelve. I bring this up because I’m kind of skeptical they’ll be significantly more than ten point six.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:44

    The New Hampshire schemed, like, right in like ceasefire, repeats itself. Obviously, Joe Biden’s gonna win with, like, over ninety percent. I think with Rashida, and with Beto and, like, high profile Dems, like, kinda encouraging this, all will be by Navy too. Eighty two percent.
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:01

    Okay. I
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:01

    just picked that number on my ass, but
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:04

    That’s good, peck. Matt’s gonna set the expectations low at sixty nine so that he can beat expectations because it’s all
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:10

    about beating expectations.
  • Speaker 3
    0:22:11

    And so you can all
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:11

    say nice. Nice. I
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:12

    wanna move on. I give you guys a thought experiment because I do think I think we’ve kind of explored it a little bit in the in the concept of Gaza, but let’s set that aside. I wanna try to get into your ongoing disagreement between the two of you about what the best thing the Democratic party could do to and better itself to embed in its vote share. So I’m giving you magic genie powers, each of you, and I’d like for you to tell me one thing that you would like to change that would do the most to help the Democrats increase their vote share and do the most to harm Donald Trump’s chances of being an autocrat. In nine months.
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:46

    Matt, why don’t you go first?
  • Speaker 3
    0:22:48

    You know, I mean, I think it’s really just a question of, like, read the twenty twelve platform. And, like, try to go back to
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:56

    The twenty twelve Democratic platform.
  • Speaker 3
    0:22:58

    Democratic platform. And, like, try to go back to Obama style positions on climate and energy, on race, on immigration and crime. And, like, those were good positions, and they won. And Democrats moved left since then. And, you know, in a way, I think, like, Donald Trump is like a, like, a bad politician, and he’s corrupt.
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:19

    And people don’t like him. And Democrats have chosen to take advantage of that, to move left on a number of topics. Which I think is dangerous, and they should they should go back and beat him badly.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:31

    So this is something that I struggle with. Having not you know, been part of the internecine fighting among the Democrats. Mhmm. Like, I understand that the platform is probably is more liberal in twenty twenty than twenty twelve. But Joe Biden and Barack Obama, like, is he’s meaningfully moved the party left in your opinion and, like, his political problems are about his policy positions and not the fact obama was just a better speaker and a better presenter of the same policy positions?
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:58

    I think the fact that Obama was a better speaker and a better politician helped get progressive minded people on board with a platform that was more moderate than they would accept these days, you know, that, like, Obama talked about his all of the above energy strategy. He talked about his, like, instinctive blood boiling when he saw illegal immigration and stuff like that. And, like, You can create a, I think, a false dichotomy around this. But, like, part of Obama being a good returitian is that he was able to make progressives feel good about him while also saying stuff that moderate minded people agreed with I mean, that’s politics. Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:41

    I mean, we don’t have in the Netherlands. I think they have thirteen parties in parliament. So you can, like, slice the electorate really, really thinly. You’re trying to get a majority in a country with three hundred thirty million people, you need a lot of people who don’t agree with you about everything to vote for you. That’s the trick of politics.
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:58

    I think that the boringness of the platform is just a useful index to to look at in that vein.
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:04

    Sure. Okay. So you gave him one then. You’ve just been made the czar of the Obama White House. I hear that they read slowboring over there in the West Wing, and I miss so maybe so maybe You just pulled up Trump
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:16

    and called Biden
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:16

    nobody. Did I do that? Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:20

    You’re you’re senile. Oh my god.
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:22

    I am. I am dementia. I I actually think that that’s more of a college dorm room behavior issue for me and not an age behavior. But one one Biden issue, one issue that he could do right now that he could, like, ex just embrace. And for people who haven’t been paying attention for three years, and they’re tuning in in March, of twenty twenty four.
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:40

    And they’re like, wow, Joe Biden’s been really tough on
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:43

    I think immigration, you know, which is a step they’re taking, but I think they gotta keep going down that path.
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:48

    Brian, Do you have any response to that before you give your genie answer?
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:52

    Yeah. Yeah. I do. Because, I mean, I was gonna say Biden has gone down the path of immigration and thus far, at least, it has not been a huge boon to his politics. And I think that if you look down, like, the issue positions by this thing and actually, like, just the issues where he’s made progress.
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:11

    He’s passed popular bills, And they’ve had zero impact on his polling. Right? Like and I just don’t think that this is a very, like, effective lever to pull if your goal is to become better like. And, like, if we were to go back to twenty twelve, you’d, like, notice a few things. One is that there’d be twenty million more people uninsured.
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:30

    Right? Because the Affordable Care Act provisions that expanded insurance hadn’t been factored in. And the climate emissions trajectory would be on the upswing.
  • Speaker 1
    0:26:38

    Also, gay rights Right? Like, I mean, we’ve had huge, you know, progress in gay rights as
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:43

    well as
  • Speaker 1
    0:26:43

    our example.
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:44

    Right?
  • Speaker 1
    0:26:44

    So it’s just good. These are all good things that the countries moved left on on these issues.
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:48

    Yes. But that’s the thing is that, like, it’s not an issue of Democratic leaders or Biden pulling the party that left so much in my view as just like the process of mission fulfillment means that at once you accomplish, like, one incremental step, you move on to the next one. And so you pass the affordable care act. There’s still twenty million people uninsured. Your agenda is going to reflect that by saying, now it’s time for a public option.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:13

    If you don’t pass a climate change bill under Obama. Your next move is to say fine. We’re gonna throw hundreds of billions of dollars into climate spending. Right? And if you get marriage equality, there are going to be people left behind by the Oberurfeld decision who say, well, we don’t have equal rights yet yet.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:30

    So that’s where the Democratic party’s gonna end up. And that’s not progressive activists being stupid. It’s just the sweep of history and where we all, like, ended up in it. So I just don’t think that, like, Joe Biden would be like. And so in order to beat Trump, we’re gonna go back to more emissions,
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:47

    you know? Like, it’s, like, not a good idea.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:49

    And I know Matt thinks I’m, like, wrong about this and, like, same magnitude. I think he’s wrong.
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:54

    You can tell I do actually engage in your guys’ content that I’m I’m just picking right at the scabs I’m going right
  • Speaker 3
    0:28:00

    to the world so you’re disagreeing.
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:01

    Like, I like, Matt and I are doing modeling the thing that everyone in Washington talks about is, like, disagreeing without agreeable. We’re the only people doing it.
  • Speaker 3
    0:28:08

    No. Very disagreeable.
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:10

    But now I’m supposed to say, like, what I what I think would help. Like, this won’t surprise either of you. For a long time. I wanted Democrats to do a better job. Just remembering that politics in the US is a zero sum contest between the parties.
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:24

    So, like, your job isn’t just per se to be popular, but to build and maintain a margin between your party, the Democrats, and the GOP. And, like, one part of doing that might be around, like, policy and ethic, like, be the kinder gentler party adopt a more popular agenda than than the other party does. But, like, you should also place a lot of emphasis on the other half of the equation, which is like making the Republican Party less popular. This was like Mitch McConnell’s big insight about how to deny Obama legislative victories. And ideally, he wanted to beat him in twenty twelve.
  • Speaker 2
    0:29:04

    That part of it didn’t work out. Be resolutely opposed to them, what they stand for, who their leaders are, how so I think that they’ve neglected key aspects of this over the last mostly, like, five years since, like, they took the house back in twenty nineteen. They seem to think that various incarnations of Medicare tactics like they’re gonna take your Medicare. They’re gonna take your Social Security are enough to hurt the GOP, but it’s like a much more target rich environment than that. Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:29:34

    Like, if they had made trump, like, two points less popular in twenty twenty by being more methodically anti trump, just, like, flood the zone with true shit about his corruption. Right? Then Bine would have won on a landslide, and we might have had, like, a substantially less turbulent
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:52

    three years. Right? Can I chime in and violent agreement of both sides? Can we both be right of this? Can we moderate and also attack more?
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:02

    Why haven’t all two dozen of Trump’s victims been brought through Congress? Why hasn’t Jared Kushner been brought through Congress? You guys are both ranting about the Russia thing. Yes. Absolutely.
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:12

    Like, why are we not going insane about the fact that there’s a Russian spy droppingapo on the president of the United States and the Republican Congress is the biggest megaphone. Like, where is where is it?
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:25

    Those are the storylines. Like, like, we are gonna get to this, in the second half, like, me asking you about, like, why Republicans have this instinct, right, like, in in in Democrats. No. But But, like, it’s that kind of thing, and, like, less buoying of the Republicans by talking about how we’re gonna find the reasonable, and we’re gonna do by partisanship with them is like, no. They are unacceptable.
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:47

    We are the, like, only safe harbor option. And then you might get your fifty six forty four split. That keeps the party, like, impossible to beat so long as Trump is the head of the the GOP.
  • Speaker 3
    0:30:58

    So, yeah. I mean, look. I I just wanna say that I I think that the substance does come back into this. That’s something that I remember very much, right, is like when your colleague Bill Crystal started going really hard against Trump. He started attracting praise from a lot of Democrats.
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:17

    Yes. Because it was like, Bill Crystal. He’s saying Trump is bad. And I agree that Trump is bad, then if you said anything nice about Bill Crystal on the internet, leftists would start attacking you because it, like, it wasn’t okay to agree with a defector from the Republican coalition unless he went through the sackcloth and ashes and, you know, renounced everything he had ever done in life, things like that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:46

    He put on the hair shirt.
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:47

    But he has, which is great for him.
  • Speaker 2
    0:31:49

    He’s basically mashing at a rage against the machine gun.
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:52

    When John Kasick spoke, at the twenty twenty Democratic convention. Like, people were upset. They were, like, but Casey, like, he’s bad. Right? And, you know, some people who who I like, have an organization called Welcome Pack, where they, like, try to get, like, ex Republicans in, right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:10

    But part of that, Yes. Like, I absolutely agree. Like, Kushner, Russian’s five. Like, there should be attack, attack, attack, attack, attack on that kind of stuff. But part of that is you have to say Look, if you want to join us in this attack, like, we are happy to have you on the team, not here is our hundred point.
  • Speaker 2
    0:32:30

    I agree with this.
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:30

    I list of items that you have to all agree with to go come in. And this is where Going
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:36

    the thesis on your door.
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:38

    Right. Yes.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:39

    Have you put your pronouns in your Twitter bio yet? No. We do not accept you as part of
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:44

    our policy. You know, a tendency toward really strident moralism on the left where, you know, this is where, like, stuff about cancel culture which gets, like, overdone in some ways, but where I think it’s correct, is a tendency to say, like, we want to kick people out, right? That, like, people will say, I’m on your side. I’m against Trump. You know, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, but then if you say one thing, that is right of center, you’re expelled.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:16

    Are you sure you’re not a little Twitter brained on this? I mean, Liz Cheney is
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:20

    I’m incredible to be
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:21

    sainted on MSNBC see right now. I am pretty sure Liz Cheney could win a Democratic primary right now. Maybe I’m wrong about that, but I in a certain context, in certain districts, certain states. Like, I don’t I don’t know. I think you might be a little Twitter, but I will I think you’re right about the notion that like Donald Trump has a better instinct on this than a lot on the left do.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:41

    Right? Like, if I came out today on this podcast and I said, you guys are woke lips, you are wrong, and Donald Trump has actually been right all along, and I and I put on a red hat. Like, they would clip that and he would put it out on truth, and he’d invite me to Mar a Lago. And, like, all sins would be given. So I do think that Dems could learn a little bit from that instinct, but
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:02

    I actually agree with, basically, all this. The small distinction I would make is that there’s a difference between, like, The water’s warm.
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:08

    Praising converts and praising Susan Collins.
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:11

    Yeah. Like, you don’t need to concede to Susan Collins to become more popular in the country. I think. Like, you don’t need to, like, adopt her policy prescription. Now you don’t need to say that she needs to become, like, a raging single payer advocate in order for her to endure, you know, that’s kind of silly.
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:26

    And then the, like, I agree that the silliness that if you, like, retweet Bill crystal, that means you support your rock war. Like, that stuff is stupid. And it’s, like, many of the people who well, one person who does that kind of thing will also, like, appear on Tucker Carlson show, but, like, would never claim to support the white genocide or whatever.
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:42

    Can we could do a two minute hate on Glenn Greenwald on this podcast. This is a safe space for that, you know, too, but or we can move on.
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:49

    No. Complated thoughts here. The idea that Democrats should be open to validators and that the people saying John Casey speaking at the Democratic convention is some sort of betrayal. That’s stupid. They should be happy about it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:02

    And, like, I think if anything, Democrats should welcome validators who are less, like, I’m gonna go speak at the convention and endorse my buddy, Joe Biden, and more people like Liz Cheney or something like that or Chris Christie who might be like, I’m not sure I can bring myself to endorse Joe Biden. And then in six months, they’re like, it really pains me to do this. But for patriotic reasons I’m going to vote for Joe Biden and Republicans were skeptical that Donald Trump should do it too. Like, that’s more effective to me. Than, like, bringing them to the convention and having, like, a big, like, kumbaya moment.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:39

    And you can facilitate that by not conceding the policy to them.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:43

    We’re gonna do more of this on your side. We all just can agree though. We just have a moment of, like, we need to attack harder. Uh-huh. Like, the attacking is just it’s just very Like, it’s unbelievable.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:54

    Like, the fact that the Donald Trump accusers are not household names is unbelievable. The corruption, the fact that people that he screwed over in business. Just all of this is it’s kind of boggles the mind. It boggles the mind that there have been, I guess, was you Matt that wrote it this morning, seventy hours of Hunter Biden. Hearings and zero hours of Jared Kushner hearings, despite the fact that we have we, we, in this case, in the anti trump case, that we have controlled the senate, k.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:19

    Couple rapid fires before we move on to yours. Matt, you wrote in your twenty one thoughts on Biden’s age. This is a kind of subthought. That Harris is less popular because she’s viewed as more liberal. I don’t think that’s a fatal flaw of the idea of Harris’s presidential nominee.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:33

    It just goes to show that she should pivot to the center and revert to the more tough on crime, Kamala, the cop persona. I love the this is the classic iglesias take. I love it because it’s like, I’m not a percent sure you’re even serious about it, but I I think it’s also right. And so but is it even possible? It’s like, is it an imaginary thing?
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:51

    Like, do you think that’s something that is even conceivable, or does the moment that Kamala, you know, sees herself in a competition for the for the White House? Does she revert to you know, the kind of like leftist protest element.
  • Speaker 3
    0:37:07

    I I just, like, actually think it makes more sense. I mean, I think her twenty twenty primary campaign got so messed up because it was, like, the worst pop historical moment for someone whose only job had been as a prosecutor to run-in a democratic primary. And it it was bad timing for her. She didn’t do well and then sort of, like, lost confidence in her persona. But, like, she was a assistant district attorney, then she was a district attorney.
  • Speaker 3
    0:37:35

    Then she was attorney general. She was, like, a pretty tough on crime, moderate in all of those roles. She wrote a book about it, and she should you know, obviously politicians don’t actually write their own books, but she should read what the book with her name on it says. Like, it’s a good book, you know, and it just, like, says a lot of totally saying normal things, and it aligns with, like, other, like, people should have health insurance, just like normal progressive stuff. I think it’s, like, in some ways, easier than people make it out to be.
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:04

    Brian, is it possible for Kamala to revert to Kamala to comp, or is that WishCast from the heart of the Nescannon center?
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:12

    I think that I mean, you you remember the etch a sketch you were maybe involved in Mitt Romney’s etch a sketch attempt. Right? You have to be pretty deaf to go from being like, I’m Kamala cop to I’m Kamala, the avatar for the Black Lives Matterwing of the Democratic Party to I’m Kamala cop Right? And, like, I think Nikki Haley, if she were to somehow get the nomination, would experience the complications of her own. I’m anti trump.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:34

    Now I’m in his cabinet. Now I’m anti trump again. Right? Like, people can smell that on politicians, and I think it hurts them. I’m not saying that, like, that would make it worse for her to revert to being Kamala, the cop, if she were to run for president.
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:47

    The Nikki Haley thing, this asked me to, another follow-up for you before I get to my final question for you too. There is a fundamental asymmetry in the fact that, like, as you we assess Biden and assess Kamala’s chances. Haley has has not suffered from that kind of flip flopping that you’re talking about. If you look at head to head polls, Haley is crushing Biden. There is no version of that on the democratic side.
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:10

    Why?
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:11

    Yeah. That was the thesis of That’s
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:13

    where you’re going. I interrupted you to put to put a finer point on it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:15

    Sort of it. It’s the thesis of the pieces that I wrote for Tuesday morning. I think Kamala Harris’s main issue is less. I agree that people perceive her as more liberal, but I think that that’s because she’s a black woman from California, more than that, like, people’s deep familiarity with her policy agenda, which, like, you have to go back to her senate votes that nobody remembers to, like, actually ascertain why she she’s coded as liberal in a legislative sense. Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:43

    And she’s not gonna be able to shake those things because they’re integral to who she is. Right?
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:47

    So the only way to have a Nikki Haley on the left is for it to be a white guy that has a southern accent and, like, Like,
  • Speaker 3
    0:39:53

    as missing some fingers. We gotta break back, John Edwards. Yeah. The great hope.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:59

    I think, like, the sad truth is that, like, somebody like Prister or Josh Shapiro, like a like a a charismatic white guy is gonna have, like, from a swing state is gonna have less blocking and tackling to do, then even like Gavin Newsom, very charismatic, very polished, very prepared to be president. But from California, everyone assumes that he’s some kind of communists. Right? And I think that that’s, like, the issue. And so, like, Nikki Haley, I think, polling well is a reflection of the fact that there are a lot of people voting right now who wish that they could be voting for a normal Republican.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:32

    Right? And they think of Haley right now because she’s running against Trump as, like, a vessel for that. If she were to win, I think that the Biden campaign would have to retool very quickly, but they would run a campaign about how she was actually like, a ride or die trumper until, like, until he did the, you know, and then we’d see whether this kind of, like, two faced thing can actually work. That’s why I think that, like, if Kamala Harris were to become the nominee somehow, she would just wanna, like, focus on being, like, confident and charismatic and, and, like, making people like her as a person, and then they will accept themselves into thinking, oh, maybe she’s more moderate than I thought she was. And, like, in the, like, break glass and in case emergency scenario, the reason that the people keep coming up with Shapiro, Whitmer, etcetera, is that they’re, like, They’re from swing states.
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:23

    They’re well liked in their swing states already. You can you can tell that they’re charismatic and confident in their political personas. And so it stands to reason that if magnified nationally, they would be well liked and they wouldn’t have the Biden Harris baggage. And then like Nikki Haley, I think that they would be pulling much better than Trump.
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:42

    Okay. We can do more of this on the politics podcast. Finally, I wanna get you guys canceled. Short one sentence answer. You’re on you’re you’re here with the never trumpers.
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:49

    I wanna know your most conservative coded position. And, Matt, I wanna know why it’s Getting rid of the Jones Act.
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:55

    Brian, I
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:55

    know it’s gonna take you a minute to think about it, but Matt, you say you go first.
  • Speaker 3
    0:42:00

    You know, I for me personally, I think, stuff related to education policy.
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:06

    You have a Jeevish education?
  • Speaker 3
    0:42:07

    Yeah. I I do. I want Jeb. I want w. I love I love all bushes.
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:13

    I’m just laughing at Brian. Like, Brian’s looking everywhere. He’s he’s like, he’s plunging the recesses of his brain. He’s like, do I have a single conservative position? Anywhere in here.
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:23

    Maybe your most conservative coded position is just your most Joe Biden and friendly position. Maybe he’s as far right as you can go. You know? I don’t know.
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:31

    It’s weird. I mean, I was gonna make some joke about, like, court packing being conservative because as an originalist, like, that’s totally legit. So so I think it depends how you define conservative. And I’m not trying
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:43

    to I’m not Slastically liberal. Your most statuary coded position.
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:47

    So in the conservative firmament, to the extent that there are any conservatives who understand that there needs to be some level of welfare support. Right? Like, I think that there’s division between libertarians who say, like, no nanny state stuff. If you need to give people money, give them money. And then there’s a more, like, traditions based conservative win where it’s like that’s bad.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:05

    And if we’re going to help people, it should be in this sort of, like, make sure that they have a job, like, Okay? And I used to be, like, in the more libertarian camp. Like, universal basic income would be preferable to our patchwork quilt of blah
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:21

    blah blah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:21

    Yeah. And over time, just, like, watching how people reacted to, like, the difference between some people getting Medicaid benefits and some getting Obamacare.
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:30

    You become a dignity of work, man. I’m
  • Speaker 3
    0:43:32

    loving this.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:32

    I just think that, like, I just and it’s not about, like, raw ideology because as a matter of ideology, I remain pretty libertarian on this stuff. But just as far as, like, you need society to cohere, and we’re seeing what happens if it doesn’t. Right? It’s really things get really scary. And a more, like, yeah, dignity of work style liberalism that concedes to conservative views about work and blah blah blah is probably better for just making people less angry at each other.
  • Speaker 2
    0:44:01

    And so I’ve moved in that direction, like, substantially
  • Speaker 1
    0:44:03

    I’m glad I asked that. I’m sending Jonathan Last eight minutes of his podcast because it just means like he could have been the uniter. We all needed. Okay, guys. I went over.
  • Speaker 1
    0:44:13

    I went over. I did forty nine minutes. So you guys lose four minutes. I’ll see you on the politics podcast. Alright.
  • Speaker 1
    0:44:19

    Thanks, guys. That was a great conversation. Here’s a little clip from the tables getting turned on me over on the politics podcast. You can check that out on their feed on Wednesday and I’ll be back here in the host seat on the bulwark pod tomorrow. We’ll do it all over again.
  • Speaker 2
    0:44:34

    See you then. You had suggested to a client that, like, the people coming after you were funded by Soros you can go after them for that. Right? And there was blowback for that. And, like, we’re not here to say that you were, like, an anti semite for putting that in your strategy memo.
  • Speaker 2
    0:44:49

    You are a Republican, and you’re like, if you wanna beat your opposition, savage them. Right? Like, where did that come from? I wanna know, like, how it is that Republicans just become imbued with this, like, reflexive go for the throat thing because Democrats don’t have that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:45:06

    Yeah. I mean, there literally is an r r n c campaign school. I I don’t know that it still exists, but I both went to it and trained at it. But part of it when it comes to the comms element of this is just really putting into people’s mind, like, a rapid response, always on offense kind of mindset. And, really, I can’t go back before bush because that’s before my time.
  • Speaker 1
    0:45:32

    But there is, like, a just a direct line of, you know, Steve Schmidt, you know, who ends up doing Lincoln project stuff and and does Palin and all this. And he was in charge of rapid response for Bush in o four. And, like, created, like, a little army underneath him. That, like, really are schooled in being attack dogs. And, like, I am, like, two generations underneath that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:45:54

    But, like, that’s what I was schooled at. Like, I did not go to political campaign school to be, like, Oh, how do you write flowery speeches? The Secret Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.
  • Speaker 2
    0:46:24

    Make no bones. It’s nowhere can stay.
Want to listen without ads? Join Bulwark+ for an exclusive ad-free version of The Bulwark Podcast! Learn more here. Already a Bulwark+ member? Access the premium version here.