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“Lesser of Two Evils” Drinking Game (with Natalie Allison)

September 24, 2022
Notes
Transcript

Republicans may be losing one of their best pickup opportunities in the Senate after they nominated a MAGA weirdo to run against an astronaut in Arizona. POLITICO Senate campaigns reporter Natalie Allison joins Sarah to listen to a group of Arizona swing voters and what they think of their choices.

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This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:09

    Hello, everyone. And welcome to the Focus Group podcast. I’m Sarah Longwell, Publisher of The Bulwark. And this week, we’re talking about Arizona, where Mitch McConnell and senate Republicans have a grand canyon sized candidate quality problem. Now, we recorded this episode before the news broke that Mitch McConnell and the senate leadership fund are pulling all of their money out of the Blake Masters race.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:34

    So some of the conversation I had with our guests today about master’s fundraising issues doesn’t take that into account. Most of the people in the focus group you’re about to hear voted for Joe Biden after voting for Donald Trump in twenty sixteen. And that means that they help put Biden over the top in Arizona by around ten thousand votes not a lot. Arizona is one of the most important states for both twenty twenty two and twenty twenty four. Right now, senator Mark Kelly is trying to win a full term against Masters, who I think is a bit of a Maguir do.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:08

    My guest today is Natalie Allison, Senate Campaign’s reporter, Epilitico. We have featured her reporting on this podcast before. Natalie, thanks so much for being here. Yeah. Thanks for having me, Sarah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:20

    I’ll just say upfront, you do not have to subscribe to my way of describing these candidates. But you I probably won’t do that. I I believe that. So tell me, have you been able to get out on the trail in Arizona? And if you have sort of what’s jumped out at you about these races or even listening to these groups?
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:39

    Well, not to tip my hand too much, but I’m
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:41

    I’m planning a trip out there. Unfortunately, I did not make it out in the primary, but I’ve been covering that race. Book pioneer and general election, of course. In particular, like, right now is what Blake Masters is going to do in terms of funding. As you may know, the NRC had to reshuffle a lot of its money.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:01

    They said that they were in the process of buying back ads, which they are doing, but it really hasn’t made up for what? They had initially canceled, and Blake Masters doesn’t have any Peter Teo money coming in so far in a general You have about fifteen million dollars of that during the primary, which enabled him to be competitive against Jim Lehman who self funded about that much money. And without that deal money, Blake Masters couldn’t have gone out of the primary, but now he’s in this place where a lot of that traditional establishment, Republican money has dried up. He has had to rely on people like Heritage Foundation, Sentinel Action Fund, their new Super PAC, and some other outside groups to come in. And help him along as he’s really struggled to raise money.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:44

    Yes, so since you watched that primary race really closely and and did a lot of coverage on it, what were the essential dynamics there? Like, it was just what he had to steal money and then he got the Trump nod and that was kind of the ball
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:57

    game? Yeah. So he was running a third place for a lot of the primary. So the the primary started with the the state attorney general Mark Bernovich in the lead because, of course, he had The most name recognition here had been elected statewide. He was immediately shit on by Trump who you know, had at first, you know, he thought Bernadette needed to prove himself that he was willing to do more to overturn him between election results and then asked the primary unfolded, Trump eventually said, for Mitch, would never get my endorsement.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:28

    He he has failed at this task improving. He’s he’s all in to help me get elected. And, Jim Lina, he, you know, he tried to get the Trump endorsed pants and ultimately, they didn’t succeed in getting that. And he couldn’t compete with the Trump SaaS combined with the deal money that sent Master’s over the edge. And Masters had a pretty stunning rise from third place to to winning by double digits.
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:54

    Yeah. It kinda reminds me of like if the J. D. Vance situation in Ohio where Yeah. He’s running back in the pack, but he gets that Trump endorsement, the teal money, and it kinda pulls him over the the line.
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:04

    I’ll tell you this this podcast is mostly listened to though by by political nerds. So they they are interested in the sort of intranascent intrigue of the dollars why do you think Peter Till has just, like, decided after basically, like, putting his hands on these candidates, you know, making Trump endorse them or or working to get trunk endorsed them and then he just, like, abandoned them in the general. Like, what’s that about? Is it just the kind of investment strategy where they do their early side and then they depend on other people to do the other side or what’s going on there? Well,
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:36

    yeah, there could be some degree of cost analysis here where, you know, he has put into fifteen million dollars. And of course, fifteen million dollars to POTL is is not as life savings by any stretch. But the polls have shown that Lake Masters is has never had an advantage
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:51

    over Mark Kelly
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:52

    that he’s always falling behind Mark Kelly. And so at what point does someone like TL need to accept that maybe his guy isn’t gonna pull it off. But that being
  • Speaker 4
    0:05:00

    said, it
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:00

    doesn’t mean he’s not going to. So Peter Teal in Ohio said he was done putting money into J. D. V.ances. Race, and then fans got the Trump endorsement.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:10

    He saw some momentum, and then he’ll put in about five million dollars more than what he had originally planned. And And we could see that happen in Arizona if Master somehow gets more momentum in the coming weeks. So I don’t think it would be shocking to see if he’ll get involved. And and there’s an idea that even materials that came checks at this point. He is sort of helping facilitate some donations to the super pack that he was working with before.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:33

    Yeah. I mean, there’s no doubt. Republicans want the senate seat. So I think that if you start showing any signs of life, they’ll get in. We’re gonna get to the sort of head to head sentiment race in a bit, but I want to start by talking about the Inflation Reduction Act.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:46

    We did this group last week, so you know, it was kind of top of mind. You know, we’re in this big string of legislative wins for the Biden administration. And pundits talk about how wins like this can certainly change the narrative, the Biden the stock in neutral. But this group was not enthusiastic at all, even though a lot of them voted for Biden, let’s listen.
  • Speaker 5
    0:06:07

    I’ve been a lifelong Republican, and I will admit some of the democratic ideas are awesome sounding free Medicare, free health care areas. But again, it’s not realistic how you pay for it. I mean, it’s a dream world.
  • Speaker 6
    0:06:21

    They’re hiding things in it. I mean, you don’t get a fee at all. They pass all these things where it’s I’m gonna pay this to my cousin, this to my niece, this to grandma and grandpa, and make sure that I’m taken care of. And the the American people be damned, and that’s why politics is such a dirty bird right now, and I just don’t know how to fix it.
  • Speaker 7
    0:06:39

    One of the provisions in it is reducing prescription costs, but it’s kinda like a hidden way that they’re doing it. I understand exactly what it is about if they’re not incentivizing companies as I understand that they’re giving them some sort of a subsidy or something to reduce the cost whatever. So the government’s paying for it, but the government’s us. But you’re not gonna pay for it on your individual bill when you go to CBS or Walgreens. That’s the difference where you pay it, you pay it, but it looks good.
  • Speaker 7
    0:07:07

    And politics, hey, your prices went down. Yes, but my taxes went up.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:13

    Okay. So the somewhat negative reaction to the inflation reduction act reminds me of a point that I like to make about a lot of these wing voters in these key states that sort of put Biden over the edge. So this group is a is a mixed group of people who are voted for Biden or who went third party or just, like, wrote somebody in. And so they are institutionally still kind of Republicans. We see this in a lot of the swing road groups.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:40

    They identify many of them, not all of them, but many of them still as Republicans who just couldn’t get over the hump with Trump. They just thought he was a jerk, but they are not fans of democratic policy. Does that sound great to
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:54

    you? Yeah, well, that’s that’s exactly what they were saying. And none of them said that they were enthusiastic about voting for voting, maybe one of them did. But, yeah, when when they were asked about why they voted for Biden, it was, you know, for the most part, they decided he was a bully or, you know, they decided they can all support him, but that with Biden, they were essentially holding their nose. And, yeah, and the inflation reduction act, I mean, over and over, we heard from them that yeah, the the federal government is claiming that they’re reducing costs for us, but our taxes are going to go up.
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:24

    And as we heard from this one guy, he called it a dream world, the Democrats were living in by passing these plans, and they were very much of the idea that, you know, this is not actually going to help them the Biden administration shouldn’t have gone this far. And then in terms of the student loan forgiveness, they were asked who supported it and nobody raised their hand. None of them got behind that either. The policies being passed by administration are are not doing any favors with those people to to win them back
  • Speaker 4
    0:08:53

    over. I mean, it’s
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:53

    a question ultimately of strategy. Right? Like, a lot of the polling numbers that have been so low for Biden or because he’s doing poorly with Democrats. And sort of left leaning independents. And that’s not who these people are.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:05

    And so these are those swing voters. And you can hear in the group, how down they were on Biden. According to an Emerson College poll from a couple of weeks ago, Biden’s approval rating in Arizona is around forty percent essentially better than it’s been. And that’s close to the current national average of forty two percent. When we ask this group to get by the grade, the group is split evenly between c, d, and f.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:30

    And then I’m just gonna actually I’m gonna throw in one other thing here. That it’s not the first time this has happened. In fact, it’s the second time it’s happened in a row where we’ve got a group, they’re down on Biden, they’re not loving their Republican nominees necessarily, but they’re open to voting for Republicans. But when you ask them head to head in twenty four Biden and Trump, Like, half this group went Trump? Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:55

    People who didn’t vote for him in twenty, did that did that surprise you as much as because now I’ve
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:59

    seen it a couple times. It’s it’s actually pretty surprising to me. Oh, yeah. So none of them said they wanted to see Biden run again in twenty four. And then, yes, more than half of them.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:07

    So I think there was five out of the nine. So they would vote for Trump and a Trump Biden rematch. And, of course, press on which republican they they wanted to see in the ballot most did not want to see Trump. I think all of them said they would prefer to see someone besides Trump. But these people, they got in twenty twenty, they were voting through a lesser of two evils and it seems like even now in the twenty twenty two election when you asked them
  • Speaker 8
    0:10:28

    about say
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:29

    what candidates on the ballot. When you ask them about Mark Kelley and Blake Masters, they’re still expressing this sentiment that they don’t really like either of them. But they, you know, can’t get behind the democratic party fully, but Republicans, you know, it keeps coming back to you. Personality issues and describing candidates in this case like masters as a shady or someone who can’t be trusted. And so It seems like these voters — Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:53

    — are really unwilling to to be enthusiastic about either party at this point.
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:00

    Yeah. If you’re Biden, and this is the dynamic. Like, is there anything he can do to help these Democrats and these swing states that have a lot of these swing voters. Do you think
  • Speaker 4
    0:11:11

    you should
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:11

    be doing something different to help with swing
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:13

    voters? Well, I think what he should be doing. And it seems like what someone like Mark Kelley would want him to do is to stay out of the picture. Like, you know, you have a number of democratic incumbent candidates who have not wanted to answer the question or whether they’re going to campaign with Biden. And — Right.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:30

    — and Mark Kelley is one of those. And you know, Mark Kelly’s campaign has tried to go out of their way to show examples of when he has opposed the Biden situation. They did that on the title of forty two with Biden wanting to end the program that Trump started, that allowed an expedited deportation process effectively or not letting people come into the country who are showing up the border. And and Mark Kelley has voted with Republicans in recent months. On trying to preserve that permission.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:00

    And he is trying despite having a voting record that is pretty close with Biden’s agenda, and he’s he’s trying to pull up every example he possibly can to to assure people that he wouldn’t be a rapper stand for Biden. And so I think at this point, yeah, Biden probably doesn’t need to announce a rally in in Tucson anytime soon.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:19

    Yeah. So let’s talk about Mark Kelly. So he’s running for a full term. His first foray into politics was as an advocate for gun control after his wife, Gavin Giffords, was shot. And what person in this actually not in this group, but in a different flipper group, mentioned his commitment to her as part of the positive overall impression of him.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:39

    And one of the things that we’ve seen now, you know, we’ve all been talking about been the polling, this kind of anomaly where a lot of these senate races, the dissatisfaction with Biden isn’t necessarily translating to hurt the senate candidates. And I would put Mark Kelly in that bucket. And so let’s listen to this group and how they talked about Mark Kelley.
  • Speaker 4
    0:13:02

    I think
  • Speaker 7
    0:13:04

    we need the Republican vote in the Senate. The Blake Masters is not the Republican vote that I want there. At least he’s not the guy with the Republican vote that I want there. So it falls back on I gotta go with Kelly. I don’t like Kelly for a lot of reasons.
  • Speaker 7
    0:13:16

    He’s anti gun and so on for obvious reasons. Sure. But he’s the lesser of two evils here. I gotta go with them. He seemed more of the the diplomatic type.
  • Speaker 7
    0:13:25

    Blank Master’s doesn’t strike me as a diplomatic type. I
  • Speaker 5
    0:13:29

    look at Mark Kelley and it hurts. I’ve seen that the vote could really be used in the Republican side in the senate. But at the same time, I can’t sit there and say, okay, Mark Kelley, did anything bad in this two years, if that makes sense. He kinda wasted it in my opinion. He co sponsored a bill that micro triple one, but that just
  • Speaker 4
    0:13:47

    you know,
  • Speaker 5
    0:13:47

    and you waited until it right before election time and you you throw it out there and you do your claim. It just it feels like you’d be wasted as two years. It’s the same thing that McSally did two years ago. She wasted her term. Howard Bauchner: I
  • Speaker 6
    0:13:59

    think he’s a politician. As much he tried to claim that I was an astronaut, I was an Navy pilot. He’s learned how to shake hands and kiss babies, and to play the political game. Which is why he did the microchip thing just before the election so that his name is in the news before it. And so I’d like him more than I like.
  • Speaker 6
    0:14:19

    The mystery of masters, I guess, is what I’m trying to sum it up as. And then the evil you know, then the evil you don’t
  • Speaker 4
    0:14:26

    know. I
  • Speaker 9
    0:14:26

    just don’t trust Lake Masters. And, Kelly, and I can’t speak to his resume of his accomplishments, and it sounds like there’s not much. But I’d rather have someone in office that’s someone in active versus someone that could really cause a lot of trouble. I’ve worked, you know, over the years and there’s been some board sometimes that wanna just make change, to make change, to do something, and I’d rather have someone not do something, and keep it kind of level and hopefully trustworthy. And so I would go that
  • Speaker 4
    0:14:53

    way. If
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:55

    there was a drinking game called lesser of two evils, during focus groups, everybody in my office would have alcohol poisoning, especially in a lot of these swing states because that is like the number one reason that people give for why they can sort of live with some of these candidates. And like I was talking about before, finds at forty percent in Arizona. Mark Kelly has been pretty consistent leading about forty six, forty three in the real clear politics average. And so I was hearing clearly from swing voters who said that they were gonna vote for him was like,
  • Speaker 4
    0:15:29

    I don’t know, w,
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:30

    you know versus w, you don’t know. But do you get the sense that there’s some sort of, like, positive sentiment for for Kelly out in Arizona?
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:38

    Yeah. And I think even Republicans will concede Republican strategist will say, well, he’s he has a compelling story. You know, his resume is is impressive to people. Unlike like, masters. He he has served in the military.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:50

    He has been an astronaut. He isn’t thirty five years old, like, fleet masters. And so I think, you know, when we put the two next to each other and certainly when you’re watching ads on TV where, you know, one side is is clipping the other and, really, the Republican comment been running videos of Mark Kelly like the Democrats have because Mark Kelly hasn’t given them much to work with. But when folks are watching these videos of of Blake Masters going off about how terrible all the Army generals are or we need to privatize Social Security or talking about abortion. I mean, it’s very off putting and the folks in this focus group, that’s what they said.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:27

    They described him as someone, that they didn’t really understand, and they didn’t totally get hammered. And and they thought he was shady and and they couldn’t trust him. And so I think, ultimately, that’s going to be a problem for Blake Masters. It’s something that his campaign and Republicans have sought to try to overcome. He brought his wife and his kids into ads.
  • Speaker 4
    0:16:47

    To
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:48

    try to stop in his image and he’s tried to temper what he previously said about wanting to see abortions banned pretty widely and He, of course, has backtracked and what he said about privatizing Medicare. And so he’s doing what he can to try to win back some of these people who think he is a total weirdo, but ultimately they could speak for themselves and the democrats are gonna keep spending millions of dollars to to let people hear from him and his own words. Can we
  • Speaker 4
    0:17:12

    just
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:13

    have a quick sidebar? Because something I keep wanting to say to people is, people are like, there’s so much money being on ads, and ads don’t really work, whatever. Man, in these focus groups, I cannot tell you how often people reference an ad that they saw. And either, like, I went and checked it out. I went and ran it down.
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:31

    But, like, how how important do you think sort of the ads and that ad war is for defining candidates? I think it’s important. Like, multiple people in
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:39

    this focus group referenced ads they’ve seen of, like, Matt just talking about cutting social security or or that’s where they found out what he thought. About abortion. They were asked, does anyone know, you know, that he changed his website to remove some of his abortion policy? Nobody knew about that. Like, nobody knows about what the candidate’s website says or, you know, maybe they’ll catch a story here or there on TV or, you know, local news.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:01

    But these ads or or what they’re seeing when they turn on their television and campaigning committees and super packs are, of course, upping their digital game and so people who are on streaming platforms and social media and stuff are also seeing digital ads. But, yeah, ads matter. And people are going to continue referencing them because well, should these people aren’t spending all all day, like, to find out, like, what his latest policy positions are. And so, yeah, no, of course, ads don’t matter. And and the folks responsible for getting these people elected are spending millions and millions and millions of dollars still on ads.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:36

    Yeah. Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:18:37

    So Blake Masters is running. Like, let’s get into him. Blake Masters is running the sort of Josh nationally conservative thing. Like, J. D.
  • Speaker 1
    0:18:45

    Vance, he’s, you know, backed by Teal. And so I read one of your articles about this race, and one of your sources compared masters to Rod Sterling from the twilight zone. What what’s that about? Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:59

    So, like, particularly during the primary campy, he was posting these videos of him standing in the middle of the desert with, like, just very strange music in the background, you know, talking about Basically, the the apocalypse is is in hand and the the country is completely going to shit. And we
  • Speaker 4
    0:19:19

    need this
  • Speaker 6
    0:19:19

    thirty five year
  • Speaker 2
    0:19:20

    old guy to step in and help change things. And that in itself stylistically, I remember even during the primary, you know, Republicans commenting on.
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:29

    How, like, we heard of a
  • Speaker 2
    0:19:31

    choice it was by Blake and his team, and and Blake played a big role in deciding, you know, what his creative is going to be, like, what does Tweets are gonna say? So runs his own Twitter account. So, like, this is somebody who you can see his thumbprint was really on the the content his campaign was putting out and and it did seem a little weird. And layman’s campaign tried to run with that and and let people know, you know, this guy isn’t really like us. But Blake Masters is is trying to do
  • Speaker 4
    0:19:56

    something that so
  • Speaker 2
    0:19:56

    far not a ton of folks in elected office are doing, you mentioned Holly, but it’s it’s basically, you know, a a more millennial potentially, like, a very young Gen X movement that is trying to rebrand the conservative party
  • Speaker 4
    0:20:11

    and then one
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:11

    of the folks of this focus group, I am versed on it. It seemed like he’s kind of old fashioned and outdated in his beliefs on family and women and stuff like that. And someone like, Link Masters isn’t running on on a a platform of, like, feminism and modernity. It’s he’s running in a platform of, like, let’s go back how things used to be. Let’s go back to being able to sustain a family on single income.
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:33

    So, you know, like, the the mother can stay home and it’s definitely a different flavor of conservatism than than what we’ve heard in past decades from most folks. And
  • Speaker 4
    0:20:42

    can I
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:43

    just add, it’s a different flavor even than Trump. Like, Trump, one of the things that he sort of had going for him that I think is underappreciated, but I try to reference a lot because I think it was important is that Trump was perceived by a lot of these sort of, like, secular white working class voters as a cultural moderate. And that they actually think sort of the Mike Pence more socially conservative disposition is kind of weird and not really for them. And so both the guys were getting the teal money, Blake Masters and JD Vance, are running these like kind of weird throwback, very socially conservative campaigns. Also like Peter Teals like this gay, tech, yeah, bro.
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:22

    It’s like, what what does Peter Teals? Like, what does he want the g o p to be? Because I don’t we kinda we lump them in with Trump, but it’s not the same, actually. Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:30

    For Peter TL, it’s like, I think someone with that kind of money he’s looking out for his own interest and his own ability
  • Speaker 4
    0:21:37

    to influence
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:37

    our Republican Party and have a legacy there. Like, he’s gonna use who’s available. And in this case, he had two young guys who’ve have demonstrated their loyalty to him through working with him, through seeing him as a mentor. And so, yeah, it’s at this point, I think there’s sort of this you know, a little bit of a dance there because, yeah, on some of the social issues, they’re what master’s in dance are articulating or not likely what Peter Till believes, but, you know, these are guys that he can use to apparently achieve an end and is willing to put money behind them.
  • Speaker 4
    0:22:12

    And it seems like he
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:13

    is thinking about this, you know, as a as a money strategy. Otherwise, he he probably would have just given them both blank checks and continue to to throw money at their campaigns even as they’ve struggled throughout the summer and have been trailing in the polls. And a lot of Inc. Has been spoke on covering Peter Till and trying to get in the mind of Peter Till and, like, that is That’s a dumb podcast episode. At this point, yeah, you’re exactly right.
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:39

    I think if lead masters, if JD
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:42

    Vance,
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:43

    are elected. It seems like, right away, there could be issues that they’re at odds with TLONG. Like, if they’re voting on how fine same sex marriage. You know, like, how is that gonna go? What are bands and masters gonna do at that point?
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:56

    I don’t
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:57

    know. Great question. Great question. Okay. Gonna get into Blake Masters and what these voters thought.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:01

    So everybody kind of buckle up for how these voters were talking about Blake Masters. My
  • Speaker 7
    0:23:06

    impression to Blake Masters is that he could be as dangerous to Arizona as Trump was through the end of his term. And of course, Trump supports him, so figured it out. But some of his views on abortion, his views on privatizing social security, I have a feeling I get the impression anyway that he is very how am I gonna say this about insulting people? Very old school seems like the way he is about families and his with his wife and so on. He seems very not contemporary.
  • Speaker 7
    0:23:39

    And I think that’s a step back with how the world is today. And I have a problem with someone like that. His whole thing about, you know, his anti abortion, including the life of the mother, So my lover and my wife, my daughter, my whoever gets raped, she gets pregnant. So she has to have a baby because well, that happened that police can protect her from some predator. I don’t think so.
  • Speaker 7
    0:24:02

    Not gonna happen.
  • Speaker 6
    0:24:03

    I feel he got puppet. I don’t know if I know who Blank Mattress is other than what the media wants me to think of it. Whether or not it’s a Hey, Kelly, Adam, master’s ed. I don’t know who he is and how he would represent me from the state of Arizona because I think if they’re winning in one way, he’d say one thing. If they’re gonna go another way, I don’t know who he is, a a person or a politician at all.
  • Speaker 6
    0:24:30

    So I have no faith in him. You got the
  • Speaker 4
    0:24:33

    best. He
  • Speaker 9
    0:24:34

    is not my choice at all. I just think he can’t be trusted. I like the blowing with the wind kind of concept. I think he is just like Trump in some cases. So, no, I’m not a fan.
  • Speaker 8
    0:24:44

    I’ve just seen the ads on TV. I’ve learned a lot from everybody like what they’ve been saying about him. You know, he seems very fixed on the views that he does have and not very what’s the word? Flexible, I guess. You know?
  • Speaker 8
    0:25:03

    He’s just he’s said in his ways, I’m still undecided on if I’m going to vote for him, you know, the whole, like, abortion thing. Somebody said, like, that he went on his website and completely, like, took off information. Like, what did he take off the post he’s so strong about, and now he’s, like, not you know, I would love to, like, hear more and, like, research more on him. Some
  • Speaker 4
    0:25:26

    of this
  • Speaker 5
    0:25:26

    is due to the TV ads you see with all his quotes and everything. And you you know, I I just sit there and I’m like, okay. It’s a sound bite. It’s highly edited. But, I mean, we’ve reached double digits on very questionable things he said.
  • Speaker 5
    0:25:43

    How many misspoken does the guy have before he starts, like, well, he did make the comment about his strong own abortion one way of no exceptions. And then when he realizes that it doesn’t work both for his campaign. He goes back and wipes out his website of everything, his comments about the UNBOMR, his comments about there’s just so many, the military leadership. They’re prioritizing social or social security. But it’s just one thing after another and it’s like, at what point it’s like, you know, this guy is not he’s shady.
  • Speaker 5
    0:26:17

    There’s something about him that shady. He’s young
  • Speaker 4
    0:26:20

    too. He’s
  • Speaker 5
    0:26:21

    only like thirty five years old. You know, I’m older than the guy.
  • Speaker 4
    0:26:24

    You know, I think when
  • Speaker 1
    0:26:26

    people are bringing up your comments about the Unobama into focus group. Like, that’s not where you wanna be. Yeah. Great. That’s not great.
  • Speaker 1
    0:26:34

    But what was interesting to me is it sounds like people are upset by masters or flip flopping not having a strong sense of who he is, but it was the abortion views that were woven throughout the discussion as hits against him. And you reported back in early September on how abortion, you know, is hurting a lot of these Republican senate candidates, including Masters among women. Is that that’s definitely something you’re seeing?
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:57

    Yeah, it’s something we’re seeing, and I think at this point, it is what it is. Republicans have said what they want to say about it. You know, they’ll continue to be asked about it, but they’re desperately trying to change the subject. And so what we saw sort of in August was a number of these Republican candidates having to, like, for the record, let’s clarify, I don’t actually, you know, want to end all abortions and things I said when I was trying to get elected in the primary about abortion. I don’t really mean, you know, what I actually think is that the state should just decide.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:26

    And so, like, let’s change the subject to move on. And Democrats, of course, are saying, absolutely not. Like, we’re going to keep reminding people that you know, you have expressed support for federal abortion bans in the past. In in the case of some Republican candidates in competitiveness states, you’re saying they support Lindsay Grahams, the Marshandell. We’ve seen some mixed reactions to that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:44

    But, yeah, it’s definitely a problem. In Arizona, you know, I was talking to Chuck top line who’s
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:49

    out. A
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:50

    Republican consultant and he has a polling firm and and they hold the abortion issue and found that overwhelmingly, like, the the unaffiliated voting block, which is about a third of the voters in Arizona. And with women, like, they’re by and large, we’re signing the Democrats on the issue. Of abortion. And I think masters has been able to somewhat try to explain his way out of some of his more rigid views he expressed in the last year by saying, oh, actually, I think this should just be a third trimester ban at the federal level. And it seemed like he was going somewhere with that and and was able to articulate that, yeah, like the vast majority of Americans actually aren’t really opposed to having late term abortion bans.
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:31

    But then when Graham came and introduced this bill, at fifteen weeks, and master said he would get behind it. It seemed like he was contradicting what he had previously said, and it it just gave him a pass elaine to highlight how some of these Republicans are all over the place and don’t really know what to say. And even Blake Masters’ own campaign, like his campaign spokesperson, retweeted an account making fun of, like, how stupid Lindsay Graham was for introducing this bill during the election. So just it goes to show you that these guys are sort of all over the place right now with with how they’re talking about this.
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:03

    Yeah. Just since you’re bringing up the Lindsay Graham bill, we asked the group about this. And, you know, the bill’s obviously sort of DOE in the Senate, and it’s kind of a weird move. But I think it was still interesting what these voters had to say about it. Let’s listen.
  • Speaker 4
    0:29:18

    If
  • Speaker 6
    0:29:18

    we’re gonna penalize the doctors for performing this thing and then what, lock them up or do whatever, we already have charters out so many medical professionals. And we’re going to, again, we’re going to cause there to be a deficit of people that are willing to go into medicine.
  • Speaker 5
    0:29:32

    I
  • Speaker 10
    0:29:33

    would support it, but I’m pro life. But, yeah, I do believe it’s the woman’s right and, you know, religiously however you believe what your choice would be. I I think it all lies with a woman’s right. And what I don’t understand when everyone’s up in arms is I don’t agree. I think the federal government should be out of it.
  • Speaker 10
    0:29:52

    I have no problem with it going back to states. A lot
  • Speaker 7
    0:29:55

    of the basis of the decision behind this abortion thing is religion based. I mean, you know, if you are of a certain religious belief, then you believe that there’s no condition under which abortion should be done. If you’re another religious belief, then you’re okay with anything. And I think that that’s a problem because by by overturning the supreme court by overturning Rovi wage. It’s making government act on a religious subject.
  • Speaker 7
    0:30:23

    And religion and government are supposed to be a separation of church and state. So I have a problem with that. When you try to impose one or the other, I think there should just be no rule on it. It’s turning too religious. Politics is becoming a matter of evolving too much of that.
  • Speaker 4
    0:30:41

    So,
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:41

    Natalie, I want you to think through something with me. I don’t expect you to have an answer on this because I have been struggling with it throughout these focus groups with swing voters since the abortion ruling came down, which is this. You watch the focus group. When we ask how people feel about what’s going on in the country, They do not mention abortion. They talk about inflation.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:02

    They talk about their 401s. They talk often about crime. And these economic issues are so front of mind. And it’s a big part of the reason that they’re so down on Biden. But then when you ask specifically about abortion or you get into the specific senate candidates,
  • Speaker 4
    0:31:18

    you know,
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:18

    they have a real sense of urgency on the issue and they are more typically pro choice than they are pro life. I hear this all the time. This same comment. It is, I’m pro life, but I believe in a woman’s right to choose. I can’t tell you how many people have that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:33

    Opinion. Like, this election is sort of gonna come down, I think, to whether or not people ultimately prioritize the economy, and that’s what they’re talking about sort of organically upfront.
  • Speaker 4
    0:31:46

    Or
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:46

    when they look at these individual candidates, they just think they’re too dream in large part because of abortion and they go ahead and vote for Democrats. Like, how do you think
  • Speaker 2
    0:31:55

    about that? That is the huge question. That is why you know, as political reporters are frantically combing through voter registration data in various states like trying to to dissect, you know, party registration and demographics to get any bread crumbs we can about what the abortion news this summer is
  • Speaker 4
    0:32:14

    going to
  • Speaker 2
    0:32:14

    mean for fall election. And so far, like, what we’re seeing is, again, think about some success with registering voters based on this issue with registering young woman and things like that. But big picture, it still hasn’t really made up for the gains that publicants have seen over the last year, like, as a whole. And so, yeah, the question is, can Democrats sustain
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:36

    momentum as you noted,
  • Speaker 2
    0:32:37

    when you ask people about the state of the country about how they’re feeling with their life, like, they’re not going to abortion. And so there really isn’t a a particularly, like, obvious or compelling piece of evidence that shows people are going to vote, like, solely on the issue of abortion this fall. And I think a lot of it we won’t know until the time, but it just makes it all the more stunning that Lindsey Graham introduced his bill at the time that he did when some of his colleagues and tight races or who are running to try to to join the the senate are basically having to twist themselves in knots right now to get past the abortion question to not have to be talking about it. Republican strategists know, like, that that is the last thing their percent of Canada should be talking about now. They went so
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:23

    far as to put migrants on planes and fly them to Martha’s Vineyard to do anything they could to change the conversation to immigration and away from a portion. They would much rather be talking about immigration. Yes. You know, even if a lot of people on the left thinks you guys did a terrible thing, which I agree with.
  • Speaker 4
    0:33:41

    They’re they’re
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:41

    like, I’ll take that conversation any day over this apportionment conversation. Because, again, one of the things that’s clear is on so many issues when you listen to people, they don’t have a fully formed opinion on a lot of stuff or they’re not sure or they don’t know that much about it. Oportia is an issue that everyone has an opinion on, and they’ve developed it for a long time. And it really ties directly into the kind of candidates that they would see as extreme. Which, you know, is interesting just because a lot of these candidates are extreme in many other ways, like, not just abortion, you know, whether it was their election deniers or Joe Biden’s not a legitimate president or January sixth supporting that kind of stuff, but really what people kind of can attach to is the abortion.
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:24

    Decision. So yeah. But that that being said though, people they have
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:27

    a feeling about abortion. It’s something they understand. It’s not, you know, this really, you know, mysterious policy idea. But you find really very few people who are, like, totally pro choice or totally anti abortion, like, yeah, people have feelings on it and they know how they feel about it, but there is this sort of gray area. Like, so many people fall in the middle where it’s like, oh, yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:49

    I’m per life, but or I believe women should have the right to choose. But I think that there could be reasonable restriction on weight and pregnancy night. And I think one of the pulling a showroom when you really ask people in a nuanced way. You know, most people aren’t super black wide on, like, I’m all in for abortion or I’m all against abortion. I mean, do you think in any way that could make it just less of a a major issue for people if they feel like they fall in the middle anyway?
  • Speaker 4
    0:35:18

    You know, so that
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:19

    is what I thought before. One of the things I’ve been open about on this podcast is I I was unsure, but I was a bit of a skeptic, you know, when the leak happened, I was like, I’m just not sure it’s gonna have this huge impact. And the reason was, is that I had done hundreds of these groups where I’ve asked people, what’s going on in the country, and like nobody mentions abortion, and they all mentioned in the economy. I didn’t see it as a as a huge game changer, and I’ve revised my opinion on that just because of the evidence that we’re seeing. But I think it’s clear that what Lindsey Graham was trying to do, right, was to stake out that middle ground.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:55

    You were so polarized on so many issues. People are actually all kind of on the same page. They identify pro life, pro choice, and then they all have their caveats. And their caveats all put them rough in the same spot. And I think that’s what Lindsay Graham was going for.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:07

    The problem, and the reason it I think he read it wrong, is that after a summer in which the narrative is Republicans are trying to be on abortion, Republicans are trying to be on abortion, what Republicans wanted was to just stop talking about a period and literally talk about something else. And instead, Graham, a, continued the conversation and b, I think what voters here is just like more abortion ban. Right? They don’t — Yeah. — they don’t necessarily have a great sense of the particulars.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:34

    So okay. So in the head to head, we always do this thing where my moderator, Meghan, basically, is like, you have to choose, you know, elections tomorrow. Seven went for Kelly and two went for Masters, which I would say in a group where
  • Speaker 4
    0:36:52

    I believe six
  • Speaker 7
    0:36:53

    voted for
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:54

    Biden and three wrote people in or went third party. That’s a pretty good outcome. Especially where five of them would vote for Trump. I would say that’s like a good result for Kelly. But let’s listen to the two people who would vote for masters.
  • Speaker 4
    0:37:09

    I just I kinda like
  • Speaker 10
    0:37:11

    the fact that he’s contemporary, you know, old school family that I use it seems. And I’m thinking, okay. Well, maybe he’ll bring something different to it because he’s young with those old school family values. I’m thinking if he gets in with the Republican Party, the thing about the Republicans is they had the house and the senate once before, and they blew it because they couldn’t come together. Like the democrats who seem to be able to come together and make all this stuff happen.
  • Speaker 10
    0:37:35

    I’m thinking, okay,
  • Speaker 4
    0:37:36

    well, maybe he
  • Speaker 10
    0:37:37

    gets his ass in there and and can fall and and I guess it’s bad to say rank and file with the Republicans, but maybe because Xi Jinping will go in and he’ll follow the other Republican and get something overturned and Biden is overturned. But right now, at this point, he’s what we got. I can’t say I’m a big fan of his, but I’m gonna vote for him because I’m not gonna vote for Mark Kelly. The main thing for
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:03

    me, living in Tucson, Mark Kelley is someone that I would definitely not be voting for. I can’t tell you a single thing that he’s done for the state. And that’s kind of unusual for someone who’s been in office I think he claimed all these things that he was going to do. I don’t see a successful single thing.
  • Speaker 4
    0:38:32

    So couple of people just
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:34

    not gonna get there on Mark Kelly. Those two people in the group, very down on sort of Democrats overall.
  • Speaker 4
    0:38:41

    So
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:42

    just to close it out, I want to talk just very briefly about Kerry Lake, who’s the TV anchor turned election denier running for governor, So she’s been running ahead of masters in almost all of the public polls, not by a ton, but that would suggest there are people willing to vote for Kelly and Lake. And so,
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:01

    like, one of the guys in this
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:02

    One of the guys in the group. Let’s listen to one of our potential Lake Kelly voters talking about the governor’s race.
  • Speaker 4
    0:39:09

    I didn’t want a security, like,
  • Speaker 5
    0:39:10

    really. I mean, I I saw her on the news. And I didn’t watch her every day, but I know that’s where she came from, and I just there were some of those stances that were like the election denier. It wasn’t a lot, but it was enough that I wanted Karen Taylor Robesen to win. That being said, I like her better than Katie Hobbs.
  • Speaker 5
    0:39:31

    And I I honestly don’t know a lot about Katie
  • Speaker 4
    0:39:34

    Hobbs. I didn’t
  • Speaker 5
    0:39:35

    know she was secretary of state. I remember being a mayor of Phoenix. I I just don’t know a lot about her,
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:42

    to
  • Speaker 4
    0:39:42

    be honest. So, Natalie,
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:44

    it kills me personally to hear this and realize it, but I think there are going to be voters like this that think that what she’s saying about the election is, like, whatever, but they’re gonna vote for her anyway. So you’re covering a bunch of the senate candidates who deny your question the twenty twenty election. Do you think that’s hurting these candidates as much as one would think? Well, the moderator asked is is clearly saying you actually stole it. Strike against her.
  • Speaker 1
    0:40:11

    And this group, they
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:11

    were pretty split on it. I think there were maybe five who said it was and then there were four who who said no. It it isn’t necessarily that. And
  • Speaker 1
    0:40:20

    we’re
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:20

    seeing the the issue of election denials on, but it’s not at the forefront anymore of the general election. Like, yeah, democrats throw it out, but, like, it’s much more compelling to go after someone for their stance on abortion or for wanting to privatize social security or for
  • Speaker 4
    0:40:37

    you
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:37

    know, really any other number of things other than talking about, like, threats to them actually. Like, yes, in theory, people might say, like, they’re concerned about it, but when you’re watching these TV ads, you know, the democrats are not spending tens of millions of dollars in in these states to say, like, JD Vance, and the the election was stolen from Trump or Hershel Walker can’t decide what he thinks about the twenty twenty election. It’s much more compelling to say JD Vance is San Francisco Elite who
  • Speaker 4
    0:41:03

    has never
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:03

    done anything to help. Oh, hi. Hersha Walker. How’s it going to his wife said? And
  • Speaker 3
    0:41:10

    so It’s
  • Speaker 4
    0:41:11

    just this idea of, like, someone
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:12

    being an election denier is yeah. I mean, it it could be a liability for some people, like, you know, some folks in this group. But it doesn’t seem like it’s the the foremost issue that that Democrats can use against Republicans. I will tell you,
  • Speaker 4
    0:41:24

    having sat through a
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:25

    lot of these and always asking that question. And I totally agree with that assessment. And if I was advising one of these candidates as much as I am yeah, I put democracy at sort of the center of the work that I do like, that is not the thing moving voters. I wanna ask you sort of one shot question though, since you’re, you know, a reporter who has to cover a lot of people who are with these election deniers. Like, how do you do that in an impartial way, but also say the election wasn’t stolen.
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:55

    How about how hard is that? That’s got to be new for reporters this, you know, over the last couple of
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:00

    years. Yeah. I think, obviously, during the Trump administration, you saw a number of of news outlets, you know, announced that they were going to start saying that election officials were lying. You hours. Previously, maybe you were tipped toe
  • Speaker 4
    0:42:12

    around. Like,
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:12

    certainly, all of us include the caveat that, you know, these claims have stolen election or illegitimate. Presidency or just prove
  • Speaker 4
    0:42:19

    out on
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:20

    their false. But at the same time,
  • Speaker 4
    0:42:21

    you know, you
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:22

    can’t ignore that people think this and believe this. And so you know, you have to explain what they’re saying and you have to explain that they’re doing it because they’re they’re sucking up to Trump and you you have to explain that they need Trump in order to make it as a as a a figure in the Republican party. And at least still at this point, you know, that could always change and could be on its way changing. But that’s all context that we have to put in there. But
  • Speaker 4
    0:42:48

    the bottom line,
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:49

    I think, is, you know, talking about someone being an election denier, as you said. It’s just it’s not what people care about the most. I was I wasn’t living in DC on the January six attacks. I was still in Nashville then. It was really interesting watching the Twitter accounts of of the DC and the, you know, New York reporters and things like that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:09

    Because people, like, outside of those bubbles, they didn’t spend the following month talking about January six. Like, people were not sitting around the dinner table are out with friends talking about January sixth. And I think, like, for the most part, you know, the people who are in this focus group, sure, maybe in theory, they have a problem with it. But, like, January sixth, threat to democracy are just not as much of a problem in their mind as how much they’re they’re paying or the idea that abortion could go away or
  • Speaker 4
    0:43:38

    something like that. Natalie Allison, thank
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:39

    you so much for being here. We really appreciate it. And thank you for listening to another episode of the Focus Group podcast. Tell your friends about it. Tell them they should sign up for Bulwark Plus, but we will be back next week.
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:54

    We’ll see you then. Thanks, Sarah.
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