Is the Superhero Boom Officially Over?

Welcome back to the Bulwark goes to Hollywood. My name is Sonny Bunch and culture editor the Bulwark. And I’m very pleased to be rejoined today by Scott Mendelson of the wrap. Scott has been on the show before. We we love talking box office with him.

He’s one of the, he knows, he knows more about day to day week to week, weekend to weekend, franchise box office stats off the top of his head than anybody else I know. So that’s that’s saying something because I know a lot of numbers people in this realm. But, Scott, thank you for being back on the show. I really appreciate it.

Oh, you’re very welcome. It’s absolutely a pleasure.

So, Scott, here’s, we were discussing us a little bit right before the show, but here, here’s my big question. If you are If you are a stats guy, if you’re a numbers guy, what specific sort of number are you looking at for Guardians of the Galaxy, volume two — or I’m sorry, volume three. If you wanted to look at that movie performance and say, alright, Marvel has a real problem here. Or alternately, Marvel’s fine. It’s been a rough patch, not some great movies.

This one’s a little bit better. Things are okay. Like, what what specific numbers are you looking at? And what do you think, what are the benchmarks for, like, things are okay versus things are bad?

Well, frustratingly enough for the discourse, it’s sort of in the middle. Guardians of the Galaxy of Volume Three and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever were the two installments coming up that everybody assumed would over perform because they were franchises that were very popular unto themselves. You had a fan base that was into Marvel, that was into superheroes and the generic, and you also have people just really like those franchises specifically. So, there was a hope that they would significantly over perform. And, at the very least even if, you know, the post Endgame slump was real, that those films are gonna get sort of a shot in the arm.

I would argue Wakanda Forever more or less did. The film did do four fifty five million dollars domestic. And it did another I think eight fifty five worldwide without any from China. China contributed, you know, even in the good times of China by the way, they were giving around ninety five to one hundred and twenty five million for a given Marvel movie. So they weren’t king, you know, they weren’t deal team makers.

You know, yes, Captain America Civil War made a hundred and ninety million in China. That was over under ten percent of its one point one five five billion dollar gross. Now, what the loss of China over the last three years more or less, did was, you know, it put films that otherwise would have done very well like Thor Love and Thunder on the defensive because they’d only did seven fifty million dollars, You throw in one hundred million dollars from China, that’s eight fifty million dollars maybe twenty five million dollars from Russia, that’s eight seventy five million dollars and well it made more than for Iraq, I guess it’s a success. And even, you know, doctor Strange, the multiverse of madness, without China, did nine fifty five, which was a huge upswing from the first Doctor Strange. But it was kind of sort of on the defensive because there was a narrative, and I don’t necessarily agree with this narrative that, oh, it’s another huge Marvel movie.

It’s coming out for Spider Man in your way home. Surely, it will do a billion dollars. It’s like, with very few exceptions, a billion should never be the benchmark for anything.

Mhmm.

You know, unless it’s an avatar sequel

—

Mhmm. Or maybe maybe the next avengers film, a billion is never — you know, that used to be a rare and splendid thing. And I think we kind of normalized in a way that I think harmful over for, you know, both the coverage of the films and the films themselves. Now, Guardians is going to do around seven hundred, give or take. Might do more, might do less.

And to be fair, even in good times, two thousand seventeen, you had three very successful Marvel movies, Guardians of the Galaxy Volume two, Thor, Ragnorock, and Spider Man homecoming, which post aired Ironman by the way. All those films still only made between eight fifty and eight hundred and eighty million dollars So even then, again, a billion dollars was not the benchmark for success. I do think we may be in a situation where marvel films at their best are performing on par with phase two pictures with a lot less from China and Russia. And that is dwindling there. Now the issue that Marvel is facing, I think, is the failures of Quantum, which was a terrible film.

And perform terribly globally, and the turtles, which that film has its fans, I’m not one of them. But at least it was, you know, it was playing in a slightly different sandbox. The problem with those films is the core hook of them was hey, look, it’s an MCU movie. Or come see how it connects to the Big Picture, which is something that Marvel didn’t use to do. They let the Internet do that for them.

You know, Easter eggs, you know, clues for the next movie, you know, continuity this, etcetera, etcetera, but the films were individually sold as movies unto themselves. The hardcore fans may have shown up picking the doctor strange the multiverse of Mammothis was gonna be this giant status quo alter an event But Marvel and Disney never, you know, came out and said that and that was smart of them. That’s why it was so shocked to see Ant Man and the Lost Pontia being sold as like the start of a new dynasty, because they were actually selling that as come see what this means to the big picture. And relatively speaking, nobody showed up. If we are in a situation where the MCU as a brand is less valuable than it was a few years ago, that is a problem for the next batch of films coming out.

The notion of a PG thirteen blade that exists within the MCU isn’t gonna mean much if relatively speaking, nobody cares about the MCU anymore. Yet another fantastic four movie, you know, like the fourth attempt to make that new franchise in, you know, thirty years, Oh, but it’s in the MCU this time. If that’s not as big of a hook as it might have been in two thousand sixteen, seventeen, eighteen, then that film is now a question mark. For that matter, I’d say the same thing about the x men pictures. I think there’s a presumption that, oh, you know, everything is fine because they’ll eventually whip out the x men card and everything will be great.

Well, Unless, the mere notion of the x men coexisting within the MCU is no longer a big deal unto itself. And that to me is the big danger for the brand going forward. And that the marvel’s biggest strain for a while was that it was a Marvel movie. Because it was trusted, it was popular, and it was considered sort of the only game in town for these kind of blockbuster thrills. And that’s not the case anymore.

That doesn’t mean that individual films might not break out. Theoretically, I think the next Avengers film will be big because it’s the next Avengers film, and even people that don’t care about the individual chapters do show up for those. But other than that, I mean, guardians of the Galaxy, volume three will do well, but we may have to look at that film’s performance as the ceiling for upcoming solo MCU movies.

Well, let me so Specifically, what I’m what I’m the question I’m kind of hinting at here, I’ll I’ll just come out and ask it. What do we what are we looking at for a second weekend drop here? Like, what are what do we think is is accurate?

Optimistically, we’re looking for a fifty five percent drop giver take, which would be what? Fifty five million dollars? Okay. This weekend.

And and that would be the best MCU drop in a long time. Because here’s here’s because here’s what I’m looking at when I look at the movies. It’s not necessarily the total grosses. As you say, you know, doctor Strange two grossed almost a billion dollars, nine hundred fifty million dollars. Like, didn’t an an enormous amount of money.

Black Panther Wakanda Forever did okay, did eight eight fifty eight eighty somewhere in there. But like, not not I think a little less well than people had hoped. And and Doctor or I’m sorry, a man and the Lost Pondomania was kind of a disaster as you mentioned, but the but the real issue here is the second weekend drops. Second weekend drop on doctor Strange two was almost seventy percent. Second weekend drop on Thor four almost seventy percent.

Second weekend drop on doc Black Panther Wakanda forever was, I think, sixty three percent or something like that compared to the original, which I think was forty percent. Yes. It had an amazing hold. And then ant man and the wasp quantum mania, again, seventy percent. So we’re looking at these.

We’re looking at a situation in which These things are very front loaded, regardless of the quality or the reviews they tend to be dropping pretty hard across the board.

Yes, ma’am.

Okay.

Because, and this sort of answered a question that was puzzling me for years, which is why did Captain America’s civil war, which had rave reviews and A from cinema score everything going for it, why was that the most front loaded marvel movie of all time up until very recently? And I think I got the answer when I looked at what strange, three, two, which is that the opening weekend was slightly exaggerated because you have gotta see it right now, Marvel nerds that showed up on open a weekend to an inflated degree, but then the rest of that film’s performance, both Dr. For rest of that film’s performance, respectively, was, okay, who just wants to see a captain America three? Who just wants to see a doctor strange two? And so, and even the big drops in July, what I’ve noticed, and this was the case with Thor Love and Thunder as well, which you have a big opening, you have a big drop and that’s for Ant Man the Lost, that’s for Spider Man homecoming.

But then it levels out for the rest of the summer because it plays as a kid friendly general audience consensus choice picture. In Spiderman homecoming and Thor Love and Thunder have the same advantage, And that there were like no kids films for like four months in between that and whatever the next big superhero movie happened to be. In twenty seventeen, it was Thor Radnerock. In two thousand twenty two, it was a black ad. And so even that, it’s a little more complicated than just it took a big drop.

With the exception of the Avengers, with and to a certain extent, guardians of Galaxy Value two, the big May kickoff films tend to drop farther and be more front loaded than the July and November releases. And February, generally speaking July and November. For just that reason. You also have more kids that are out of school in those periods. And you also have a situation where especially in July, it’s like if it if something like ant man or four eleven Thunder, Spider Man Home Bang or Webbane, Farfetch home plays as a general audience, everyone can see this, everyone can enjoy this, nobody’s going to feel left out and then, you know, the legs will recover as they did with most Adam Sandler comedies in the late nineties early two thousands.

Those films would open and if like forty million dollars drop hard on weekend too and then leg out for the next month because they were consensus picks general audience, you know, easy picks for large groups going to the movies.

Still true for Adam Sandler, by the way, this is this is why his Still true for Adam Sandler by the way. This is why his movies do so well on on Netflix.

Yes. So I’m less concerned about the size of the drop in weekend too, Then frankly, I am by the sides of the drop in weekends three and four. And I know that’s kicking the can down a little bit, but statistically speaking, I wouldn’t panic yet if the movie drops a little harder on weekend too, especially because the reviews are good, the buzz is good, asymm a, similar score, etcetera, etcetera. There is some concern about the film is very long and it’s very melancholy and it has moments that don’t exactly scream escapist entertainment. But, you know, we’ve said that before about everything from the dark knight to Bulwark Panther were gone to forever.

And kids are made of tougher stuff than we remember.

Yeah. I do I do wonder I mean, as I have to to young kids who I probably wouldn’t have taken to this anyway, but I definitely wouldn’t given, you know, some of the some some of rocket raccoon scenes and also the the defacing of a character near the end of the film. Yeah. The

sword is okay.

No spoilers there, but it was it was definitely speaking of dark knight, I mean, it calls to mind the the kind of two face reveal, which I guess, like, that was that was a hard p g thirteen movie. That was a that was a pretty intense movie. I wonder if it will have that sort of the reason I bring this up is because I do wonder if that is going to impact the general playability for a longer stretch of time here. Combined with the fact that you have you actually We finally have a movie four families and four kids in Super Mario Brothers after, you know, a four month gap between that and puss in boots. You know, what what do you see when you look at the performance of Super Mario Brothers?

Well, it was kind of like a multigenerational nostalgic event like it like beauty and the beast like Star Wars, the Force of Wake. Like Spider Man no way home where you have these properties that were just, you know, that everyone’s a fan. And everyone discovered them at a different point in their lives through different outlets like it, for example. You know, did you read the book as a kid? Did you read the book as an adult?

Did you watch the miniseries as a kid? Did you watch the miniseries as an adult? Do you just want to see a two point five hour epic horror film about a killer clown? That is why that film broke as big as it did in twenty seventeen. Maybe in the beast you’ve got, you know, you have fans of the Disney cartoon.

That watch get at various stages of their lives. You have fans of Emma Watson from the Harry Potter movies. And sure they’re not going to show up with the blingering unfortunately. But the idea of Emma Watson as Bell, that’s an actor plus character star power combo. It was Super Mario Brothers, you had, you know, Nintendo the movie for all intents and purposes.

My kids, you know, my first born She knew what Mario and Luigi were before she was even old enough to play the games. So the pop culture saturation of those Nintendo characters are I would say more so than Mickey Mouse. Because, yeah, everybody knows Mickey Mouse, but does anyone have a favorite Mickey Mouse movie? Does anyone go, oh, I can’t wait. Those are really young and much in the Mickey Mouse clubhouse and then you know, birth for the parents.

Otherwise, you know, it’s sort of a character that’s sort of there without being particularly popular. Mario is, you know, Mario, bowser, Princess, etcetera. They’re popular characters. And they are played by actors that people like. You know, the Twitter likes to pretend that everybody hates Chris Pratt, but spoiler they do not.

They might not have any strong opinions about him, but they like him. They they recognize him. And while I don’t think he’s gonna open some grim dark legal drama on his own, blockbuster franchise pictures with him in the lead, I think do better than those without. I think dungeons and dragons would have performed better if it was Chris Pratt, instead of Chris Pine. The grammars of you like better as an actor, you know, better, you know, on screen charisma, blah blah blah, but Chris Pine is not a draw.

Most of them aren’t draws. Let’s be honest here. Unless you’re dicaprio or bullock, it’s with a lot of caveats. So I think Mario Brothers, it had the four month gap with no kids films. It was an incredibly bright, it was embedded really colorful.

The trailer played like an earth shaking action film if you saw it in Dolby or IMAX. And even the negative reviews basically said, you’ll get what you want if you want a Mario run. It was that most of the bands include I mean, I didn’t review it, but even mine was like, I wanted a little more than just this. And you know again as the craziness of trying to pull this into some ridiculous culture or discourse, it’s like A, the film got majorly positive reviews. Even just going by rotten tomatoes got like fifty three percent fresh or something, which means more than half the critics thought it was at least okay.

Yeah. And b Well, I yeah. Yeah. You know, I mean, the the the culture war stuff around here. I I am I’m I’m sympathetic to a point that you kinda hint at before, the this suggestion that Chris Pratt is some sort of, you know, that he’s hated or he’s a he’s a cancer.

I like, I This does not reflect in any of the box office data, really, or the or the Nielsen’s data. I mean, he he was a huge hit on the

terminals. That show’s called. Not a miss the terminal list I don’t know the exact numbers, because none of us do, but I think we can guess that a lot more people watch the terminal list than Chris Pines we own the night.

Yep.

Or whatever that shit’s called. I apologize. We are the neither. We are the neither.

I can’t remember.

I

can’t. No. I I I can’t remember. Again, this is

not about who’s a better person, this is not about who’s a better actor, this is about who can get people into theaters. And is magnificent seven remake with Denzel Washington did pretty well. Ascentimeters made three hundred million dollars on a ninety budget, despite being an entirely original property, Obviously, Jennifer Lawrence gets a huge chunk of credit for that too. And I think to a certain extent she’s a butts in seat straw. In a way that I think we kind of took for granted because we were too busy whining about, oh, no.

Nobody showed up for mother, of course not. Mother’s the movie you make after you’ve been a star because you wanna do it. It’s your reward for being a star. It’s not proof that you are a draw.

What do you think Jennifer Lawrence is gonna help revive the r rated — Got it. — here.

God, I hope so. Because I think Sony hopes she Will Saletan I’m going to be optimistic because it is the kind of comedy that still did well, back when comedies were still doing well, and this was a pre COVID problem, as are most of the issues with theatrical. She is a big star. She, you know, it’s a fun, high concept pitch. And, you know, in a way that, yeah, Twitter may whine and moan about it, but it is selling sex appeal in a way that I don’t think you get a lot from a lot of mainstream pictures.

For a variety of reasons.

The name of the movie, by the way, no hard feelings, the trailer — Yes. — came out a a month or two ago, people were people were very interested and excited and kind of like, wait, do they they still make movies like this?

They are trying to see this summer. I have an article about death that’s in the editing pipeline. I’m hoping to drop some time this week but whatever. Hollywood really is, by the way, read it at the RAP Pro, would you get a chance? Or no, but please do.

And but no. I mean, this summer, Hollywood is really making an effort to release more live action You’ve got joyride, which I’ve seen is terrific. You have no heart feelings, you have theater camp, which was a Sundance acquisition, You have Universal Strayes which is about talking a vulgar already talking animal comedy which just moved from June to August which was great because there’s a history of at least a decade of a big mainstream comedy breaking out in mid August from where the millers in two thousand thirteen once be cops in twenty fourteen, Sasha’s Party in twenty sixteen. To a certain extent, the hitman’s bodyguard, in twenty seventeen crazed for changes in twenty eighteen and Universal’s Good Boys, which had no stars, they had a hell of a concept that topped one hundred million worldwide and do that August of two thousand nineteen. So there was hope right until COVID sort of me capped all the good choices the studios were making.

Yeah. I I mean, do you what sort of COVID hangover are we dealing with here? Still. Are you are you of the opinion that the the issue is slow is solely in terms of the the delta between, you know, box office in twenty twenty three versus box office two thousand nineteen, is the delta there a function of people not wanting to show up in theaters or they’re not still just not being the same level of product, the same amount of movies and

I think this is a real main year since twenty nineteen where we’ve had a regular amount of product. And what’s been very frustrating is we’ve known since Godzilla v Kong or at worst a quiet place too, which opened exactly the level it was tracking at when it was delayed fourteen months prior. The ten polls were safe. People would show up for the blockbusters that they wanted to see. So there was no excuse to keep delaying this stuff.

You know, Furious seven, Venom two, Spiderman no way home. You know, the Batman. Etcetera, etcetera. We knew this, but we still suffered through two years of undernourished theaters because studios were not providing a regular slate of theatrical releases. There were several reasons for that.

One, you had a COVID postproduction pipeline, understandably. I mean you had a backlog of post production because of COVID and that’s I get that. Also, you know, for twenty twenty and twenty twenty one, you had Wall Street basically almost forcing studios to prioritize streaming at the expensive theatrical. So they had to do what Wall Street was telling them to do, and Wall Street was telling them that the only revenue or profits or numbers that mattered were streaming. Even though there was lots of evidence even early twenty twenty, that films that play well in theaters do better on streaming than those that just go straight to streaming.

Especially outside of the Netflix ecosystem.

On this point actually, on this point, I I wanna I wanna bring back to Disney and Marvel real quick. Because one of the I I haven’t I’ve my my big theory on Marvel movies is that they’re especially front loaded in these these last few years because so much of the audience has shifted to home viewing. I I I mean, I know this just anecdotally. I have I have lots of anecdotes on

this point. Yes. We all have evidence of evidence of evidence.

People who, you know, I will be talking to, you know, just for my neighborhood, not not movie people at all, not, you know, in the industry, not press people just like folks I talked to and they’re like, yeah, I went to see I went to see I don’t know. I went I went to go see Guardians of Galaxy Volume three, but I didn’t see Black Panther forever or Thor, I watched I’ve been home, and I’m glad I did because they weren’t that good. And I I feel like I can watch more of these things at home going forward. Again, I I don’t I don’t I don’t even know what you would how you would prove this statistically. But I do get the sense that a a larger Porsche you you again, you have that front loaded, The people who are Marvel fanatics, who are gonna show up for everything, regardless, they don’t want they don’t want to get hit with spoilers, they want to they want to make sure they they see the thing fresh and and and before everybody else.

And then a, that the possible repeat business from that cohort has dissipated somewhat because they are they’re just like, well, it’s gonna be on Disney plus in six weeks. I can wait. I have Disney plus anyway. That’s fine. But also, like, there are people who just aren’t going to see them in the theaters because of the Disney Plus factor.

I I do you think that this is a this is an issue at play here? And Yes. And if it is I mean, I like, does Disney even really care that much? I think they are I think they are willing to take that trade, shifting a certain amount of box office for steady monthly revenue.

I think that was absolutely a factor at lie, especially for the animated films. And, you know, again, I don’t want to say Bob Jake, evil, Bob Eiker, good because if Iger had been there in twenty twenty when COVID began, I don’t pretend that he would have, you know, not made some of the same decisions. But Bob JPEG, again, under pressure to boost those subscription numbers at all costs, basically turned Pixar into a streaming brand. And they also even when they released a film by Walt Disney animated picture like Ray Jonathan Last dragon or in Canto or strange world, It was basically treated as a glorified advertising campaign for the Disney plus release. And the irony is they sent a bunch of very, very good pictures like Seoul and Canto and turning red either straight to streaming or in a very compromised theatrical race, but they went full party theatrical with Lightyear which nobody wanted to see.

And they should have known that nobody wanted to see because of the same thing with soloist Star Wars story, where you had a prequel origin story of a character that was basically the co lead the first turn around anyway. Played by a different actor that had nothing to offer new to bring to the table for people that weren’t sold on that pitch alone. But I do think there is evidence that Disney does care about theatrical windows. They wanna get some of that theatrical revenue back. Because we do, you know, Ant Man, the lost Quantum came out is going to come out on Disney plus over two months after its theatrical debut.

Avedark came out, what, four and a half, five months ago, and we have no idea what’s gonna be on Disney Plus.

And they did and they’re doing a, like, hard VOD window. As well. And I

think we’ve seen lots of evidence that the PVOD window, which is basically you pay twenty, twenty five bucks to rent it for a couple of days. Does not cannibalize theatrical, that those two things can coexist. And that’s a wonderful thing because what we’re finding out is we’re getting these studio programmers that even before COVID would have been dead in the water theatrically, that can kind of justify themselves through PVOD revenue. So I am more optimistic about the studio programmer than I have been since twenty sixteen because you’re making money on PVOD, most of which — far more of which go back to a studio than a fiftyfifty ticket sale. And the theatrical release creates awareness and buzz and prestige for when that film comes on to peacock or Disney plus or HBO or Max or whatever, there is now almost more incentive to put those kind of films in defeaters than there has been in almost a decade.

I wanna I wanna I wanna talk about theatrical as a ad campaign for streaming because that is essentially Look, I look at a movie like air. Maybe like air that costs, you know, Amazon reportedly paid a hundred twenty million dollars for the rights and to produce it, and they put it in theaters, they put it gets a wide theatrical release, it’s on three thousand screens or whatever, twenty five hundred, however many it was on, And it only grosses eighty five million worldwide to this point. Let’s say it gets to a hundred million. Yes. Obviously, if if you were if you’re main, if your main goal is to generate revenue at the box office this movie has failed, but that is not the main goal with this movie.

The main goal with the theatrical release was to cover, P and A, basically, the the advertising costs. To make it an exciting thing for when it is on prime video, which it is now because this is don’t get on Saturday. You know, it it this is the the the movie’s on on Prime Video. You’ve seen ads for it on TV. It’s got Ben Affleck and Matt Damon.

You know a big event movie, come watch it on Prime Video, and that gets folks there. Right?

Ideally, yes. And I think we’ve seen And again, you know, it’s it’s insane as it sounds that wasn’t a COVID error, necessarily a COVID error strategy. I remember in two early two thousand nineteen, Warner Brothers released a movie called Nancy Druwinade in staircase. It starred the young woman from It, Sophie Ellissefi? If I missed if I got that

wrong type of address?

Lilly? Yes. And it was in ANC theaters for, like, two weeks before its VOD debut. And even then, I was like, oh, this could be the future, where you have these films that don’t necessarily need to make a lot of money in theaters or make money in theaters at all, but their awareness and prestige is goost by virtue of being in theaters for a couple weeks. And I think we’re gonna see a lot of that, I hope.

Obviously, Apple and Amazon whether it’s truthful that they’re going to each spend one billion dollars a year and theatrically inclined movies or not, I don’t want you. I’ll see it, you know, I’ll believe it when I see it. But if that is the case, they are clearly not doing this so they can make back their money in global box office revenue. They are doing this because they know that if they want people to watch their movies on streaming, putting them in theaters gives a huge boost to viewership numbers. And, and this to me is hugely important, when you’re dealing with movies that you’re going to make anyways, the production budgets are relevant.

Because you already gotta make it and release it on streaming for nothing. So the only extra money you’re spending is marketing.

Yeah. We should I look, you can’t just discount that entirely. It is expensive to market a movie. It’s one of the reasons why the mid budget — Yes. — for adults

No. It

has disappeared and, you know, we could that’s a whole another episode. That’s a whole another.

Let me rephrase that.

Do

the extra expense is a not insignificant market expect. Because you’re right. It’s not cheap at all. You’re right. That’s why we don’t have the middle class movie in theaters as much as we used to.

But but, I mean, you you look at a movie like I mean, I the biggest the biggest box office successes of the last couple years to my mind are movies that were destined for streaming and got got plucked out and put in theaters anyway. Smile being the big one, but then also evil dead rise. I mean, these are two movies that didn’t cost a ton of money to make. You know, there’s I think evil dead rides cost sixteen, and smile cost thirty or something like that. But they made a ton of money in theaters, and they’re gonna be on streaming here and, you know, the smile was on paramount plus.

Forty five days later, thirty days later, or whatever. It still made a ton of money in theaters. That’s that’s just free cash, evil dead rise, again, makes don’t know. Let’s say, a hundred twenty

million dollars It’s gonna top out at a hundred and forty by the time it’s done. For a film

So, I mean, like, you’re

just fifteen million to make.

Exactly. So, yeah, I I just the the the thing that has driven me craziest about the film industry over the last three years is this the the the the way that everybody has kind of had to relearn that, oh, yeah, you could make money in movie theaters.

Yeah.

You can do that. I I don’t get it. I I just I don’t understand it. But I’m glad they’ve learned the lesson, I guess.

I think, unfortunately, they were being, again, you know, not to be not to hold up the studios as these innocent pawns, but I do think there was a huge investor driven drive to prioritize streaming at the cost of everything else. And even if a given studio executive didn’t necessarily agree with that or saw the forest for the trees, you know, if you don’t do the thing that investors say you should be doing and your stock price takes a hit in this environment, it’s very hard to say, well, I’m sacrificing short term gains for long term, because that’s not the way the quarterly profits and that’s not the way the media discourse worksite. Extent that it ever did.

Yeah. The the discourse. It’s always fun. Alright. This is a question I’ve asked now.

Three or four guests so far. I’m curious to get your take on it. How disappointed am I gonna be towards the end of July when me a Noland head who’s gonna camping out for Oppenheimer, when that movie gets blown out of the water by Greta Gerwig’s Charlie Sykes, what are what are we looking at here? What what sort of box office

I think a sign of a healthy industry is that they is if they both can thrive. They both cost, I think and again, I’m not, you know, I think they both cost around one hundred million. And Barbie, I think it will be a hit for the record, but I am concerned that it’s an example of a film that Twitter goes nuts for but general audiences you know, maybe they’re interested, but they’re not going gaga over it. And frankly, I think what Warner Brothers has to do now over the next couple months and they can, and I’m sure that well, is basically a sure parents have this meta Barbie movie is safe for their kids. I mean, the last trailer was funny, but you know, it basically ended in a very obvious double and you end you.

Yes. And, you know, it’s it’s I think they need to reassure audiences that yes this film will be clever and funny and maybe fish out of water is satirical, not unlike the Britney bunch movie in nineteen ninety five. But it won’t be something that if you just wanna bring your kids to a Barbie movie, you’ll be okay. And again, that’s not an artistic criticism. That’s a commercial criticism.

As for Oppenheimer, again, it cost about a hundred million. I know we hear a person’s gonna, you know, market the hell out of it because they wanna show that they can. Assuming the movie works as popcorn entertainment, and most of no long movies do, that’s sort of the, you know, the dumb secret of why is Nolan so popular, because he remembers the fundamentals. I mean, you go back and rewatch the dark knight and above everything else, it is a gorgeously constructed, well acted, just an incredibly intense action thriller. Everything else is, I don’t want to say it’s gravy because that’s not fair, but it works as a movie first.

And the only Nolan Rip Offs that got that was Skyfall. Which is a big reason why Skyfall made one point one billion dollars four years later. Because whether or not that’s your favorite James Bond film or not, and it has issues, especially on reflection. In the moment, it’s a kick ass action adventure picture. So I think Nolan has very sharp commercial instincts.

And I think if he’s gonna spend a hundred million dollars in a movie about the guy that it, you know, that helped invent the nuclear bomb, he’s not going to make it a droll slow art house walk in the park. I think there’s gonna be some commercial value there. Something to remember is that Interstellar opened below Big HERO six in twenty fourteen. And then led down to about one hundred and seventy seven domestic, which is gonna be one hundred and eighty eight domestic from a forty nine million dollar opening. Dunkerque opened with fifty million dollars on the same weekend that girls trip open with thirty one million dollars So a, there’s room for both, b, I think both films will be relevant.

If they deliver, they will be relatively leggy, because up and hiring will be the big adult film in the season. You know, going back to road to the tradition in two thousand and two, We have this one mid summer movie that clicks with adults and legs out like a g up. Sometimes that’s the help, sometimes that’s forrest gump, sometimes the throw to perdition, sometimes it’s Tendrick. So I am cautiously optimistic about both films. I don’t necessarily think that both films are guaranteed to be super duper mega smash hits, but they don’t have to be.

They don’t have to launch franchises. They don’t have to launch multimedia streaming spin offs. With Barbie, Zasloff might pretend it does. But if they show up, they show up. And if not, whatever.

That’s the smartest thing, by the way, that Lionsgate’s been doing with the Hunger Games prequel. Whether or not the world needs another hunger games pretty cool or not, they have been absolutely dead silent on what this film means other than itself. It is not the beginning of a trilogy. It’s not the beginning of a new franchise. There’s not going to be a star spin off.

If the movie is a hit, maybe we’ll get more. If not, Oh, well, no harm.

Yeah. Yeah. Alright. Well, that was pretty much everything I wanted to ask. You know, I always like to close these interviews by asking if there’s anything I should have asked.

I think they’re anything folks should know about the state of the box office or the business or what’s what’s headed? What’s coming out?

Something that I think is worth remembering is a Jeremy Fuster who is the box office like Forbes, he’s also the labor guy, so he’s got more important things to do right now. He’s sort of the point man on the the WWA strike right now. Anyway, something he mentioned a couple times and it’s worth repeating, the year should not be compared, twenty twenty three should not be compared to twenty nineteen because that was such a highfalutin Disney stack year we’re probably never going to see grosses on that scale again. You had the last Avengers, the last Star Wars, next frozen, the last toy story, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, two of the most popular animated films in the Katzenberg era, both get remakes in, like, within like three months of each other, Lion King and Len. I think and he thinks and I agree with him, twenty seventeen is a safe comparison.

That was a very healthy year. You didn’t have these weird Bocker’s bananas once in a generation smashes like Black Panther, Avengers, Engabe, etcetera, etcetera. It was just a solid, healthy year with the movements.

Oh. And how were we looking compared to twenty seventeen?

I think so far so good. I think and especially on a film by film basis, Creed over performed, John Wick over performed, Super Mario Prothers obviously overperformed. And god help me what came out between And ironically, with the exception of dungeons and dragons, which always just cost too much money. It was IP for the sake of IP, which is what we were all saying three, four years ago when the project was first announced, It just Airmont had such a good run and the film looks so good that I think some of us drank the kool Aid a little bit, Mia Copa. A scream six over performed.

That other than guns and dragons, the only things that haven’t over performed so far are the comic book Super Robovies,

which I

think is very chilling.

It’s interesting. It is interesting. I mean, again, this gets back to my I do think we are like, I’ll I’ll just say it. I think we are in a kind of a comic book fatigue, type moment, look at Shazam, tood which which has did worse than Morbius.

Yes. Despite be worse than movie.

Worse than Morteous. And I I, like, every time I see a trailer or an image of the flash movie, which is being marketed very heavily as a Batman movie. I look at that and I think, boy, I know Warner Brothers really believes in this movie, they have to, given, you know — Yeah. — some of the surrounding stuff. On this, they they must really believe in it to be pushing it as hard as they are, making it their show, they showed the whole thing.

At Cinemicon, they’ve they’ve got, you know, it looks.

Well, I’ve seen it.

Right?

I was not a fan. There are lots of people that loved it.

Okay.

Jeremy, he was we were working together that week. And I think his thoughts, basically seven out of ten, it’s fine. Are going to be the general idea of consensus. Even before I saw it, I’m not as high commercially on that film’s prospects as I think a lot of other people is something I think is going to flop. I think they’re going to be, you know, if it does Doctor Strange Thor of Four numbers, that would be fantastic.

But Oh, well, I mean,

I think that’d be a huge hit.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, if if

if that if if Flash does eight hundred million dollars, if a Flash movie does eight hundred million dollars. I take back everything I’ve said about comic book fatigue. It’s it’s

it’s not real. And But I I agree with you. But I think films like that. And I I think a lot of movies coming out this summer that everyone thinks are gonna make a billion dollars just because now everyone thinks everything makes a billion dollars that aren’t remotely guaranteed. That includes indiana jones five, that includes

fast x.

Because, you know, China isn’t going to deliver as much as they have the last parts of seven and eight. They did not like nine anymore than we did. And for the record, it had nothing to do with John’s seen it. Making a comment about Thailand. Is it Thailand?

Taiwan. Sorry, immediate. You know, the film was dropping on opening night because they just didn’t like it. It was very continuity heavy. It was very mythology driven.

It was very franchise specific in a way that you know, sort of carpet for the horse kind of filmmaking that Hollywood, you know, American audiences aren’t crazy about either. But I hope this one is better. It looks better just because it looked like fun. And Jason Olmer seems to be having the time of his life, But I do think that is one that it may not perform that much better than F9. We’ll see.

But, you know, they’ll just get a loan from Nintendo. They’ll be fine.

I also think that Mario is gonna be

the biggest gross movie of the year domestically and worldwide. Don’t see anything coming in the horizon that’s gonna beat it. I think the Meg has the potential to be massive if it plays anything like in Chinese blockbuster in China because it is a co production between Hollywood and China, and it stars Wuqing, who is one of China’s biggest movie stars. And it was a cliche to say, this person is this country is Tom Cruz, but if I were to make that statement, it would be I know the film, you know, he was in the wandering earth, the wandering earth two, battle of Lake Cheek Jin, battle of Lake Cheek Jin two, Wool four year two, all of which made a good deal anywhere from six hundred to nine hundred million dollars just in China.

Right.

And if that film plays like a fast and furious movie in China, which means, you know, three fifty, four hundred million dollars and does pretty well everywhere else, it could be one of the biggest movies of the summer globally just by default.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Meg two. I It’s all great, by the way.

Well, I mean, it it it had a pretty fun trailer. I’ll give it that.

And, you know, it’s the cheeky marketing that worked so well for the first film five years ago.

Yeah. Yeah. Alright. Scott, thank you for being on the show. Scott Mendelson of the wrap.

Go sign up at the wrap pro. You you you won’t regret it. It’s a it’s a it’s a good site, and I will be back next week with another so the bulwark goes to Hollywood. We’ll see you guys then.

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