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Is Everyone Underestimating Nikki Haley?

February 17, 2023
Notes
Transcript
This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:07

    Welcome to Bags to differ, the Bulwark weekly roundtable discussion featuring civil conversation across the political spectrum. We range from center left to center right. I’m Mona Charen, syndicated columnist and policy editor at Bullwerk, and I’m joined by our regulars, Bill Galston of the Bookings Institute in The Wall Street Journal. And Damon Linker who writes the Substack newsletter eyes on the right. And Linda Chavez of the Nistana center will be joining us just a few minutes later today.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:36

    Our special guest this week is Bill Crystal, editor at large of the Bulwark. So welcome one and all. Bill, thanks for joining us. I was very interested in a piece you had this week, Bill, in American purpose, which was sort of a warning call about how we are handling the matter of Ukraine. And you asked whether we are losing our nerve.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:03

    And along those lines, let me just set this up by pointing out that a few days ago a group of eleven house Republicans led by representative Matt Gates unveiled what they called a, quote, Ukraine fatigue, unquote, resolution, which stated that the US must end its military and financial aid to Ukraine and urge the combatants to reach a peace agreement. Now he doesn’t speak for the majority of the party, but there’s a big strain of Ukraine fatigue among Republicans and even among some Democrats?
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:40

    Well,
  • Speaker 3
    0:01:40

    there’s some strain and the question is how big it gets and some of that is in our control or in the control of others who sort of give it a lot of oxygen or don’t, you know, and then argue back. But first of all, it’s good to be with all of you. And So Jeff Geadman, my friend and friend, I think, who posted both of us on this podcast. It runs American Purpose, who ran asked Berlin years ago, knows Germany very well. Got a little money to do a few roundtables in Berlin to try to talk to them about US German relations, but particularly with a view towards Ukraine and the idea you know, if U.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:10

    S. And Germany are in the same place, we’re in pretty good shape, probably. Got those the Nordic states and the Baltic are more hawkish and Poland, more determined. Help Ukraine. So US and Germany, Saint Kees, each look at each other.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:22

    The Germans clearly were using in a sense what they took to be a little reticence on the part of the by demonstration to go a little flow on their decision about the tanks and this little bit of Biden administration saying, well, we can’t go too fast because the Europeans would get worried. I mean, on the whole, I wanna say, I think the white administration has done well. I think the US has done well. I think Germany has done pretty well. Totally freed themselves from Russian gas in one year.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:44

    Really amazing. Remember all the conversations we all had a year ago? It’s been very hard for them. They got a little lucky because of weather at this winter, because some other things. But still, the dependencies were built in for so many years and decades.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:55

    And they have really behind the scenes and to some degree in front of the scenes, but a lot of this has been sort of quiet. The degree of construction and things they have done to reorient their energy sector is really impressive. And that’s happened elsewhere in Europe too. We’ve actually, I’m told by people there, done more behind the scenes than by some of this gets credit for in terms of helping with that. So Alaho, I’ve sort of been a pretty good defender of president Biden and generally of the response to Ukraine.
  • Speaker 3
    0:03:23

    I think it’s been better than I would have expected. But I am worried. So it’s good to worry. And so, Jeff and I read this little piece. We published it in Germany.
  • Speaker 3
    0:03:31

    So, the Germans would read this and there’s a little bit too much truck among friends in Ukraine about g, six or nine months from now. What if it bogs down? And not enough in the sense of, you know what, this is really very important next two, three, four, five months. It may not bog down if we really go pretty much all out to help Ukraine. Let’s do that.
  • Speaker 3
    0:03:49

    Maybe six months from now, we have to rethink things or Ukraine. Have to be thinking because it’s not like they’ll be thinking too, but it’s premature now to be sort of bargaining with ourselves.
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:00

    Bill Gallston, as you know, you know, have been pretty complimentary toward the Biden administration’s leadership on this but they did something this week that was a little disturbing. They had a high administration official talk to the Washington Post and say to the Post that they are conveying to Ukraine, that quote, we will continue to try to impress upon them that we can’t do anything and everything forever, unquote. Then this got a really sharp review on Twitter from Elliot Cohn who has been a guest on this podcast and who was very harsh and said, look, this is the worst possible message to be sending, you know, especially since we have been slow in getting them the arms that they’ve been asking for What do you think?
  • Speaker 4
    0:04:51

    Well, I certainly agree with Elliott’s critique. And interestingly, I hear that the Biden administration agrees with it too. And that the senior administration official who talked to the post may to some extent have been freelancing or exceeded his brief. So I’m not convinced that that article represents the center of gravity of the administration’s thinking on Ukraine. I certainly hope it doesn’t.
  • Speaker 4
    0:05:24

    I agree that the Biden administration is not moving at the speed of war. To provide Ukraine with the weapons that it needs, we could do better and perhaps looming Russian offensive will light a fire under them. But frankly, I am much less worried about the Biden administration. Than I am about the Republican opposition to the continuation of the policy in Ukraine. As it happens, a new survey from Quenipiac University just came out, and it showed that forty seven percent of the Republican rank and file believes that we’re doing too much to help Ukraine.
  • Speaker 4
    0:06:12

    That is not the view of independence. It’s certainly not the view of Democrats, I think the Biden administration will stay the course and up its game. Whether Republicans and Congress will allow them to is another matter all to Yes.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:26

    Damon Linker, I’m worried about both things. I’m worried that the Biden administration’s dragging its feet on sending fighter aircraft to attack them, which is a funny acronym for long range missiles that they have asked for and that would be very helpful. But there was an earlier poll that also showed this tremendous leaching of support among Republicans. Whereas for example, in May, sixty percent favored sending arms to Ukraine. Now the number a week ago was forty eight percent.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:05

    In March, Fifty five percent said it was a bigger priority to sanction Russia effectively even if it meant damage the US economy. Now, fifty nine percent say limiting damage to the US economy is more important than effectively sanctioning Russia even if that means sanctions are less effective.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:24

    Yeah. I mean, first on the Republicans, I think this is an important moment. I mean, not only because of future votes for funding with the the Republicans controlling the house. But for what it spells for the longer term future of the Republicans where I think we have DeSantis’ position on foreign policy completely undefined. And I really do think that if he’s not the front runner, he’s probably the guy best positioned to be the nominee if it’s not Trump.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:59

    We know where Trump stands on all this. He says he’d end the war in twenty four hours, which means he’d basically pull support for Ukraine and let putting clean up as quickly as possible. But DeSantis hasn’t taken really any position on any of these issues. In that respect, it means that that path forward for the Republican Party is wide open. And he and his people are going to be deciding what to do and which way to move based on what unfolds in this period in the party.
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:32

    And so that’s a good pivot to my second point, which is I’ve been a big booster of Biden on Ukraine on this podcast. Including in several exchanges over recent weeks where we’ve talked about why are they going slow? Why dragging feet? And I’ve tried to muster up an argument for why it’s made sense to be resolute and as Bill Cristal put it, you know, keep up our nerve, but also do it at a kind of certain deliberative pace in order to not overly give putin more of an excuse to say that we’re actually directly engaged in the conflict and get a green light from China to hit us back or something like this. But what I truly do not understand on either the policy level of our support for Ukraine, an attempt to see them win or on the politics of it is why Biden is not saying anything about this.
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:30

    He said barely a word about Ukraine in the state of the union. And since then, given that things are ramping up again in the theater, I don’t understand why he isn’t making the case the American people who, as you pointed out, Mona, were quite strongly in favor of this a year ago, And predictably, that is waning, but it’s waning in a vacuum. We need the president to actually speak to the American people and explain why this is important and why the path that Biden has chosen, this kind of middle path between going to war with Russia on Ukraine’s behalf as we would if they were in NATO and basically standing back and letting Putin get his way. Why that has been intelligent, smart, it’s been working, and it will succeed if we remain resolute. And he just won’t do it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:23

    And that I frankly am baffled by and beginning to get a little demoralized about. Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:30

    I’m gonna come back to you on this, Bill Crystal, because it really is striking that president Biden has failed to make the case to the American people about the importance of this moment, as a historical moment, the importance of it, as a turning point in terms of the defense of democratic values, liberal democratic values that he claims to speak for and that he sort of ran for president saying he was going to uphold. He has failed to link hours standing up for Ukraine with our larger devotion to those values. And I do think that’s a problem. So that’s the first part of the question. Second part of the question is, do you think Biden is capable of making that kind of a speech?
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:18

    I
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:18

    think he could, but I asked someone in the administration why the relative silence on Ukraine. And this person made a decent point, which is, I mean, everything is so polarized. That if it becomes a big Biden thing, it makes a little harder for those Republicans who themselves may not be speaking out in a great way, but are voting for aid in or not going longer. Matt Gates type path or Donald Trump type path. He doesn’t want to make it harder for them.
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:42

    They think it’s a bit okay. There’s no need to rock the boat here. In terms of making the case dramatically and then provoking a big debate, which gives the anti Ukraine forces more oxygen. Having said that, I think you also do paying price as Damon said. For not articulating the case.
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:56

    I’m not sure that people here fully understand kind of what’s at stake. Maybe others could do that some. The only reason Jeff and I wrote that little piece and just put this in context with people. The MeetMe Security Conference is this weekend. It’s not a huge deal for most people here.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:10

    It’s a that’s boring. I in a few times at a tedious conference. Actually, wherever it makes features normally. So if you go, you go in order to sort of have nice conversations with people. In the halls and go out to the, you know, beer halls of Munich and go to the excellence museum there and so forth.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:24

    And don’t pay much attention. But this year, it’ll be pretty interesting. I mean, most of the foreign ministers of Europe defense ministers get together there. Vice president Harris is going for the US along with secretary Lincoln. And I think, one reason, frankly, Jeff and I sort of wanted to get out a little bit tried to marginally slightly increase the odds of a sort of forceful speech by the vice president and forceful speeches by the Germans in particular.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:47

    And, you know, hopefully, showing real solidarity. Because whatever happens, etcetera, and I wasn’t that there’s no downside to showing total solidarity. Right now. I do think in the state of the union, I’m told. I think Bill Gossa knows maybe a little more about this than I do.
  • Speaker 3
    0:13:00

    I’ve heard from two different people that is an early draft to the state of the union that had a fair amount of foreign policy, a fair amount of democracy versus autocracy, a theme of Biden has discussed, you know, a fair amount after all. And then for various reasons, they went with domestic policy and fix fights that they thought were good fights to pick when they thought bookings and social security and Medicare and all that. As a result, you ended up with I think it’s nine sentences on Ukraine. I think seven or eight of them are in the past tense. We have stood with Ukraine.
  • Speaker 3
    0:13:27

    We have provided the RNs, which is fine. And then one sentence will be with Ukraine as long as it takes. But no actual articulation of a kind of theory of victory or success. Or really what’s really at stake in terms of aggression being awarded, the largest war in the European continent since nineteen forty five. And what the world looks like if food gets away with this or even sort of half or two thirds gets away with it.
  • Speaker 3
    0:13:50

    So I think that wasn’t this opportunity. I think the combination of that speech the Washington Post article that we discussed to your General Mili’s comment that, you know, it’s been a disaster for Russia, which is true probably, but it also gives a vague sense of we don’t have to do that much anymore. They’ve already lost, you said. So the vibes coming from the administration were a little nervous in that respect. The Germans did step up three weeks ago with the tanks and lots of people in Europe are really doing pretty impressive things that no one thought they could do a year ago.
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:23

    We should be a bit of an engine behind this effort, not a bit of a brake on it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:29

    Yeah. Bill Gossan, the Russian strategy. They’ve been a callingly bad at the military side of this. Everybody seems to agree. Their army has proven itself to be very ineffective compared to its size and what was expected going into this war.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:49

    On the other hand, Putin’s strategy appears to be well just keep throwing missiles at water facilities, electrical plants, and other infrastructure keep bombarding civilian targets until the Ukrainians are worn out and the west gets tired and loses its will to resist. And in that sense, even though their military has grown itself to be, let’s say, relatively ineffective on the battlefield, that strategy still could succeed?
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:22

    Howard Bauchner:
  • Speaker 4
    0:15:23

    It could and it’s the reverse of surprising that the Russians are using this strategy because it’s the strategy they always use. They have never cared about finesse. At least on the ground, in the field of battle. Their theory of the case has always been that you keep on throwing wave after wave of soldiers at the enemy lines until they finally crack. And if you have men to burn at inside item, then that strategy perhaps has a chance of succeeding.
  • Speaker 4
    0:15:59

    I wonder in this case for two reasons. First of all, recent estimates have indicated that the Russians now have, as opposed to a year ago, almost all of their army in Ukraine. They have nothing left in reserve. So if this latest wave doesn’t succeed where previous ones have failed, they may not have that much to fall back on. Secondly, they don’t seem to have a strategy as a number of analysts pointed out, including the dean of them, Lawrence Friedman from London, they seemed to have arrayed their forces along a very long front without really having built up a robust capacity to punch through anywhere.
  • Speaker 4
    0:16:51

    There’s a famous story about Napoleon who asked each of his generals to come up with a strategy for France and one of the generals had the French army evenly dispersed into units along the French border. And Napoleon looked at the general and said, are you trying to stop smuggling? And I think the same question could be directed at what should be the Russian general staff, but as far as I can tell, is a rotating cast of vulgar guys, namely What’s your strategy? What are you trying to do? I think in the next two months, we’ll see what the answer to that question.
  • Speaker 4
    0:17:38

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  • Speaker 5
    0:18:12

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    0:18:23

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  • Speaker 1
    0:18:29

    So, Linda, so glad you are with us now. This is an aspect of this battle that doesn’t get enough attention. And by the way, I highly recommend Bill Crystal’s conversation with an Applebaum that was on his podcast conversations with Bill Crystal. The Ukrainians are fighting for their very lives. They have every reason to keep fighting because the way the Russians are fighting this war has not been seen since the forties with widespread atrocities torture, human rights abuses, the most recent stories that we’re getting, you know, there are all these torture rooms that they keep discovering in places where the Russians have been beaten back.
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:11

    But the other thing that that came up just this week is a report from an American group. It said six thousand Ukrainian children are being placed in forty three camps stretching from the Crimea all the way to Siberia. And the children are being indoctrinated that Russia is their homeland and the older children are being given military training. This is According to this reported, gigantic Amber alert that is being issued on Ukraine’s children. And that’s just one example.
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:44

    But the people who are giving up, it seems to me, on supporting Ukraine are forgetting that Ukraine has no option here. It’s not a matter of saying, okay, you know, we’ll negotiate away some territory because the Russians want to destroy Ukraine. So Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, they want Ukraine to be a part of Russia.
  • Speaker 5
    0:20:06

    And you’re right. I mean, I think the will of the people to defend against aggression. This is an invading force. That came into this country and is attempting to destroy it and is in fact destroying large swaths within Ukraine. And I think that It is really unfortunate that the American people do seem to be waning a bit in their support it’s not surprising.
  • Speaker 5
    0:20:36

    Americans are, you know, notoriously reluctant to focus on foreign affairs, to get involved outside our own country. I mean, it took Pearl Harbor for the United States to get into world war two. We are just simply, I think, almost by nature, isolationists. So what’s been surprising to me is not the diminishing support. What has been surprising to me is that the support has been as robust as it is.
  • Speaker 5
    0:21:08

    After all, this is all the way across the world. This is not in our backyard. This is not going on in Central America or Mexico or South America in our hemisphere. And so I think we should take note that we need to do something to help make sure that Americans understand why this is in our interest. And I think that’s where the Biden administration might be faulted but so might other politicians?
  • Speaker 5
    0:21:37

    I mean, I would like to see those Republicans who support this effort to help Ukraine. Be more outspoken. Get on the air. Go on. Fox News, NewsMax, some of the more right wing sites.
  • Speaker 5
    0:21:52

    And make the case and explain to viewers and listeners why it is in US interest for the American people to continue, to spend American tax dollars, to help our allies fight a war halfway across the world. And I think we need to do a better job of that because, you know, we’re one year into this. It may not be over. In eighteen months or two years. It may go longer than that.
  • Speaker 5
    0:22:19

    And the longer it goes, the more difficult it is going to be. To continue that level of support and without our support, without our leadership in NATO. I think you would not see the Ukrainians having a fighting chance of repelling this horrible invasion. I
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:39

    don’t know if you saw it, but Tom Cotton went after Kamala Harris for something that she said about China, which, you know, might not have been the best wording. But the point is, Tom Cotton is very force square behind efforts to help Ukraine as are a number of other leading Republicans. But you don’t see him going after his fellow Republicans or at least advising his fellow Republicans about the importance to this country of repelling the Russian aggression and Ukraine. But, you know, somebody who is is Mike McCall. Yes.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:12

    Who is the new chairman of the was it the foreign affairs committee in the House? And he has said that he plans to hold hearing the spring maybe could do it sooner, focused on Russian atrocities. I’ll quote him. He said, I find that moves the dial when they see these horrific killings of children. So he’s focused sounds like on persuading
  • Speaker 5
    0:23:35

    his fellow Republicans. And I think, you know, your point about the children who are essentially being kidnapped. I mean, there’s no other word for it. That’s what’s happening. You’re having mass kidnapping of Ukrainian children.
  • Speaker 5
    0:23:48

    Some of them being held, I guess, in place in Russian occupied territories, but others actually being sent to Russia proper, and as you say, as far away as Siberia. I think if Americans were to see that, I think we are very compassionate people, and I think that would maybe move the needle as well. Howard Bauchner: You
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:08

    know, just one footnote if I can interrupt for a second. Mitch McConnell, I just saw this clip. I didn’t see it on Fox News, but it was on Fox News and was asked about Ukraine aren’t we spending too much? Isn’t it time to start pulling back and give very strong answer. It was three or four sentences, but it was no.
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:23

    I’m going to make the case that it’s the most important matter that we face today. And we need to have bipartisan support for Ukraine the whole future of the world order depends on it. I think McConnell may be going to the public security conference and may speak there, but maybe there’ll be a little bit of a McConnell and McCall type resurgence of that kind of Republican bipartisanship and the international’s conservatism one could have lost a lot of money in the last years betting on Republican establishment times to do the right thing or step up, but maybe you created such a dramatic and drastic instance that we’ll see a little more of that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:55

    Right. Right. Right. And
  • Speaker 6
    0:24:56

    before we leave this topic entirely, Bill, I just wanted to get your sense about Ron DeSantis because Damon has noted more than once that let’s say it’s more likely than not that DeSantis will be the Republican nominee in twenty twenty four. I don’t know if people would agree with that or not, but let’s just say for the sake of
  • Speaker 1
    0:25:13

    argument that that’s case. And we have no idea where he stands on this matter. He has definitely shown a high degree of sensitivity to what the base in the Republican Party is feeling. Do we get any sense from him that he might provide some leadership on this?
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:32

    Well, he hasn’t so far, but I guess he’s governor of Florida, so he gets an excuse that he’s busy governing Florida. And you know, making sure the AP tests are don’t talk too much about, you know, African American history or something. But, I mean, Nikki Haley was out of bounds. I will say, people have been mocking her at launch and she’s not gonna be the nominee and she probably isn’t gonna be the nominee and she deserves some mock me after the last several years. But I’ve got to say on this, she was unequivocal.
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:55

    She said, We have to stand with our friends, Israel and Ukraine, and then Republican primaries. Israel is very popular and being pro Israel is good and against Iran and Russia. And again, Iran’s really bad. So if you put Russia with Iran, that’s good. Of course, it’s right to do so and they’re actually now working together.
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:11

    Their
  • Speaker 5
    0:26:11

    allies here. So
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:11

    I don’t know. I think DeSantis will be as Damon suggested an indicator of where the party is. And the one thing we don’t really know is if Trump starts to really beat this drum for the next three, six times. I don’t think Matt Gates makes that much difference. I don’t think he intimidated Mitch McConnell or Mike McCall.
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:26

    You’ll have it divided from public and party on the hill. It might get divided slightly less good direction over three or six or nine months, but I think it’s more incremental. The one thing that could change the dynamics is Trump just beating the the drums on it. Desantis perhaps going in the same direction. Suddenly, the two overwhelmingly leading Republican presidential candidates are turning against, you know, US support for Ukraine.
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:48

    Then you’re in a very different situation than having some members of Congress and forty seven percent of people in a public opinion poll, not that’s nothing, but you’re in a very different situation. So Trump, I think, how much of an issue he makes this, and then where DeSantis goes, are very important for where the Republicans end
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:04

    up. Perfect segue into our next topic because the Republican primaries have really begun in earnest now this week with Nikki Haley throwing her hat in the ring. Nikki Haley, I have to confess, you know, back in twenty sixteen, I practiced had that photo of her with Tim Scott and Marco Rubio, the three of them together, practically, had that emblazoned on my home page because it’s great. The future of the Republican Party, you know, multi ethnic, multicultural younger generation, great, you know. Anyway, Haley has had quite a journey since then.
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:49

    And just because I can’t get this out of my mind, I’m going to throw this out there. I’m gonna come to you first, Bill Galston, here’s what she said in twenty sixteen when she was campaigning for, none other than Marco Rubio. The KKK came to South Carolina from out of state, She said, we saw and looked at true hate in the eyes last year in Charleston. I will not stop until we fight a man. That chooses not to disavow the KKK.
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:19

    He’s talking about Trump. This is not a part of our party. This is not who we want as president. We will not allow that in our country, unquote. So, of course, soon thereafter, she went to work for Donald Trump.
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:33

    Should I get over it, Bill Galston, and just say, look, I mean, she’s got some really good qualities despite this. And she does, by the way.
  • Speaker 4
    0:28:42

    Well, I’d be the last person in the world to tell you to get over anything. And she does have some good qualities. But what we’re discovering is that one of those qualities is not courage under fire. That when she was confronted with the victory of someone whom she claimed to abhorrs a better principle, She caved the way most of the rest of the party did. And in normal circumstances, we would write this off as you know, the usual supine behavior of people who count votes for a living.
  • Speaker 4
    0:29:24

    But these aren’t normal circumstances, and I think she revealed that she didn’t really understand that or even if she understands it wasn’t willing to act on it, run the real forward to her announcement and with a handful of exceptions, it wasn’t really clear what she stands for or what distinguishes her from what the generic Republican stands now is. This is point made in a number of conservative publications that she seems to be running on personality on generational appeals, which to the best of my knowledge haven’t really worked since nineteen sixty. And a broad desire for a somewhat less confrontational brand of politics. I doubt very much that that package will enable her to move into the top tier of candidates. I can’t rule it out, but I’d be astounded if it did.
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:27

    Just for the sake of going down memory lane. In nineteen sixty, weren’t Jack Kennedy and Richard Nixon very close in age. I mean, So Kennedy was running as a generational change candidate against Eisenhower, but he wasn’t running against Eisenhower. He was running against Nixon. Anyway,
  • Speaker 4
    0:30:44

    just Well, I know. But take it from me. Ronald Reagan in nineteen eighty four was still running against Jimmy Carter. Right? Sure.
  • Speaker 4
    0:30:56

    But against Carter’s vice president and that relationship was pretty decisive. So Mhmm.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:02

    Yeah. Yeah. No. Richard
  • Speaker 4
    0:31:03

    Nixon was joined at the hip too. And
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:06

    aging Eisenhower, and there was nothing he can do about. No. That’s fair. Anyway, so Linda, One of the points that she made in her speech was that Republicans have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections and that she is the kind of candidate to deal that breach or and she says, this ends now. So what
  • Speaker 5
    0:31:33

    do you make about that argument? Well, first of all, kudos to her for saying that that’s a very unpopular thing to say in Republican circles because, of course, many Republicans and certainly those who support Donald Trump do not believe that Republicans lost come to seven out of the last eight elections, they would prefer to think otherwise — Mhmm.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:54

  • Speaker 5
    0:31:54

    without any evidence to bolster their beliefs. Look, you know, Mona, I sympathize with you and you’re not wanting to sort of get over the topography that Nikki Hadley has displayed. But part of me says, look, she’s a politician. What do you expect of course she’s going to try to be all things to all people. That’s what politicians do.
  • Speaker 5
    0:32:19

    Now the best politicians do have core beliefs and they do stand by those beliefs and we’d like them to have courage. But I look at Nikki Haley and I say, Nikki Haley is somebody I could vote for. And I probably could vote for her against most Democrats because I happen to agree with her on a lot of issues. And I think it is a very good thing that she has gotten into this race. Do I think that she represents the Republican party a day?
  • Speaker 5
    0:32:51

    No. She clearly doesn’t. She’s at, what, one percent or so in the polls. And I don’t think she’s gonna climb a whole lot higher, but who knows? I do think that part of her reason for running right now is that she’d like to be on the Republican ticket even if she is not beating it.
  • Speaker 5
    0:33:11

    And I think that’s altogether possible unless the nominee is Donald Trump. And I do not see Donald Trump putting her on his ticket. Just because he’s a vindictive petty little man who cannot abide anybody who does not wholeheartedly support him and he thinks that she’s guilty of treasuries and treason for having served in his administration and now going against him after saying at some point in her journey that she would not run if Donald Trump was running. So look, I’m happy she’s in there. I think she represents a Republican party that I can be much more comfortable with.
  • Speaker 5
    0:33:55

    And would that she was higher than one percent in the polls? Would that at least thirty percent of the Republican Party? Could embrace on Nikki Haley.
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:06

    Bill Crystal, Trump initially, at least, welcomed Nikki Haley into the race, which he doesn’t always do, but presumably that’s because he figures as Mitt Romney warned this week that a crowded field is good for him that it could be a repeat of twenty sixteen. And therefore, assuming that Trump has a lock and we can’t really assume this, but for the sake of argument, Trump has a lock on thirty percent. That’s gonna be enough to get in the nomination if We’ve also got Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Chris Sunu, Larry Hogan, Mike Pence, Rhonda Santos, Mike Pompeo, Asa Hutchinson, and Chris Christie, also in the race. I think she could be a little stronger than people think, a, that list you just read. So listen to
  • Speaker 3
    0:34:52

    it. She’s the only woman and and not to be go to gender identity politics and all that. But if you combine that with the sense the Republican man or either fuckish, Trump and senators or boring and, you know, a very conventional, let’s just say, Pence and maybe Pompeo. In his own way or somewhere between Ferguson Bourie. I don’t know.
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:13

    I just have a sense that maybe Haley, people just look at her, they’ll read into her kind of what they wanna think. Tremarkiness on the issues or back and forth on Trump probably mirrors a certain number for public and primary voters who themselves, sort of voters for Trump, but like a march, and after January sixth, kind of repudiated him with the photo Howard. This change is making too much of it. She’s probably wear twenty percent thirty percent of the Republican electorate is ultimately, you know, she’s not where fifty percent of it is, I think, and probably it’s more twenty than thirty. So she’s probably not that I’m an even In most multi candidate races, someone starts off at one or two percent and becomes a serious candidate for a while.
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:50

    Food and judge, what you’re saying, twenty twenty. They then lose usually to someone who has more money and more establishment backing and starts off at a higher level. So I think she’s being a little underrated by insiders who kind of have seen her go back and forth. And maybe don’t step back and just think, you know, she looks different from these other Republicans. And if you do think it’s time for a change, you know, you’re a little sick of all these people, even if you vote for Trump twice, you defend the scientists on various things, but you know.
  • Speaker 3
    0:36:18

    Why not hailey? And maybe she had a better chance to win? And people could be a little more comfortable supporting her.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:25

    Damon, there is a well known phenomenon in Republican presidential primaries where there’s always the black candidate that catches fire for a little while because Republican primary voters really hate being accused of racism, and they’re eager to prove that that’s not true. Obviously, she’s not African American, but she’s
  • Speaker 6
    0:36:47

    Indian American and non white and a female. It maybe builds on to something that this could be appealing to a bigger chunk of the Republican electorate than people are acknowledging
  • Speaker 1
    0:37:00

    right now?
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:01

    Well, except for the fact that Haley’s own state of South Carolina has another candidate who is eager to jump into the race and has been raising a lot of money, namely senator Tim Scott, who is African American. And if he jumps in, then that might be a better person to be the recipient of those feelings for at least a little while. So I don’t really know how that plays out in the end. I mean, Tim and Scott hasn’t really ever been on my radar very much. So every time he gets brought up, I kind of think, like, who is that guy?
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:34

    Like Haley was very much talked about you know, on the years leading up to twenty sixteen as the person who, you know, those who were on board with the Republican national committee’s twenty thirteen autopsy. This famous statement created after Romney’s loss about why it happened and it proposed the diametric opposite of where the party went with Trump to basically the party needed to liberalize on social issues needed to become more like America, meaning with candidates who are more racially diverse and have more women candidates and so forth. Haley was the candidate who was supposed to fit into that lane and appeal to a broader segment of the electorate, and that still may sense if you’re thinking about the general election, but it’s very hard to imagine in the GOP primaries, which is why everyone in the establishment kind of the pundit class is sort of looking at Haley’s run with a cocked eyebrow this week. Can Tim Scott actually do a better job of that? I don’t know.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:43

    I think if my sort of question mark about him as a candidate is any vacation, then it might be that not a lot of people know even who he is, and they’re going to, you know, form their opinions based on the impression he makes when he finally presumably announces. But I sort of agree with Bill Crystal that it’s possible. Haley could, you know, there are million variables here and there are certain scenarios I can imagine where a bunch of people were assuming we’ll jump in, don’t jump in, and then to Santos kinda underperforms and Trump sort of continues to not be up to his old demonically charismatic self. Mhmm. And so there’s like a vacuum where we thought there were gonna be all these really strong players and somehow Haley is there at the right moment and is the beneficiary of this.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:35

    It’s also true that this is all about very small numbers here. But in the real clear politics average, she’s at three point eight, so not quite one percent. That has her, you know, about half as high as Pence. And then all you have left is to Sanderson Trump. So she’s kind of at the head of the pack of people who aren’t the choice of the right wing activists or who were major players either the president or the vice president last time Republicans weren’t charged.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:08

    So she’s pretty well placed to kind of be that other person, that black swan or I guess Indian American swan. Okay. Maybe benefit from the right sequence of bad events going on for other wannabis. I guess the last thing I would say is that we’re all talking about this in a weird state of suspended animation in the sense that it’s like parallel play with toddlers. You know, you get a bunch of toddlers together and they don’t quite socially interact with each other like their will when they grow up a little bit so they all kind of sit there playing next to each other but don’t interact.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:46

    You have Trump doing his thing. You have DeSantis, who’s sort of running, but purely by doing things in Florida that will appeal to the Republican base around the country and play well in right wing media, but never saying anything about Trump directly. Now Haley comes in and wins the Academy Award for passive aggressive comment by saying the seven out of last eight elections, Republicans of lawsuits, by the way, is not, I think, just about twenty twenty. That implies Trump is a loser even for twenty sixteen because
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:20

    of the popular vote. Of the
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:22

    popular vote. Yes, of course, he did win with the in the electoral college as we all know, but she’s implying that other than Bush in two thousand four, no one has won. The popular vote, which is true. But to say that when Trump is still hanging around is a real elbow in his direction, but yet she didn’t use his name once in either her video or her live remarks she didn’t refer to anything she really did when she worked for him. So again, parallel play.
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:55

    How does this all play out when these people are all on a stage and you have a moderator asking them direct questions? Oh, Nicky Haley, you work for Donald Trump, he did x, y, and z. How do you feel about that policy and the thing he said? Oh, DeSantis, you say you wanna be president the last Republican president said this and this other thing, where do you come down? Then a parallel play becomes impossible, and once they start saying things directly contrary to Trump, he comes back swinging.
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:24

    So that’s when we really see how all of this shakes out. Right. Bill Crystal are gonna come to you for the the last
  • Speaker 6
    0:42:32

    comments on this. Another sharp elbow that she threw was that she suggested that candidates over the age of seventy five should be required to undergo mental competency tests. So That was unsubtle. Yeah. I think Jim’s I mean
  • Speaker 3
    0:42:49

    Look, of course, something like me would like her to directly take on Trump and take on authoritarianism, take on all the incredible damage she’s done. Then she wouldn’t be running for the proper denomination. She’d be, you know — Yeah. — doing something else. But I think it’s pretty tough on that.
  • Speaker 3
    0:43:02

    And I think the point about the popular vote, it’s such a matter of dog. We’re now in the Republican Party that we’re not even allowed to mention the popular vote because that somehow, like, that would charge us to do a democracy, not a Republican. It’s only the life for college that matters. I’ve really been struck by how that’s progressed from just a common sense point that, yes, we have the life for college and that is how we represents. And therefore, the popular vote is not quite as important as some people might wish it to be to a kind of it’s like an insult to America to mention the fact that there is this popular vote that you can tabulate.
  • Speaker 3
    0:43:30

    And the fact that she just said that, I kind of agree a little striking. So I wonder if she’s willing, I don’t know. I mean, she hasn’t much of a hish you this, but is she willing to sustain a more non Trumpy tone and message for several months and see if that does get let’s just say it might get eight percent of the Republicans and might get twenty percent. I don’t know if it gets above forty five or thirty, so maybe it’s not really a winning thing. But you get to fifteen or twenty, then at least you’re in the game, you know.
  • Speaker 3
    0:43:57

    Howard Bauchner:
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:58

    Yes. Alright. We will see. Bill Gallston, I’m just gonna come to you for a quick comment if you would like to about where things stand legally with Trump. He had a tough week with Jack Smith, the Independent Council, Topina, Inc.
  • Speaker 1
    0:44:13

    Mike Pence, who is fighting it, but also Mark Meadows, and the special grand jury convened by prosecutor Fannie Willis in Georgia has released partial information this week wherein the grand jury suggested that people be indicted for perjury because they thought that a number of the witnesses were lying. How do you think this plays out? Is it highly significant for the twenty twenty four election? Or, you know, what do you think?
  • Speaker 4
    0:44:44

    Well, it depends on one of these cases circling over the airport actually landing. Mhmm. But Trump is so beset as the eighteenth century knowledge would have put it on many fronts. And if it doesn’t distract him, then his ability to compartmentalize is truly heroic. I’ve detected did no signs that he has such an ability unlike other leaders, including presidents.
  • Speaker 4
    0:45:10

    And
  • Speaker 1
    0:45:11

    Is anyone you worked for? Well,
  • Speaker 4
    0:45:14

    yes. Thank you for pushing me to go there. But But I have to believe that it’s at the very least a distraction and it could turn into something much more than that. I think that he can endure the current level of litigation and fighting. But if we’re talking about an indictment, or multiple indictments, that is another matter altogether.
  • Speaker 4
    0:45:42

    And we should know well before the campaign starts in earnest. Whether he’ll actually be fighting that prospect or not. Howard Bauchner:
  • Speaker 1
    0:45:51

    Right. One other aspect of this is that Jack Smith seems to be pursuing the theory because of his request vis a vis Trump attorney Evan Corkeran that his claim of privilege be disallowed because the conversations between Trump and Corcoran were part of the crime fraud exception. To the lawyer client privilege. And that’s very serious. Yes, that’s an issue only a lawyer could of, but I do not deny it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:46:20

    It’s good. Okay. Very good. Alright. We will now come to our favorite segment, the highlight or low light of the weekend.
  • Speaker 1
    0:46:31

    I’ll start with our guest William Crystal.
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:34

    I’m not sure this is exactly a low light, but Jonathan has the last had an account of Bing, which is Microsoft, I guess, artificial intelligence thing, chatbot, whatever we call it. Had a long conversation to our conversation it had with a reporter yesterday who himself let it up. Jonathan quoted a lot in his newsletter today. And I went and looked at the whole thing. I didn’t read every word of it because it’s long.
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:56

    But it’s sort of worrisome, though, and kind of bizarre, honestly. So people should begin with JBL’s newsletter today, but then you can go and obviously mute the big piece by the time reporter.
  • Speaker 1
    0:47:07

    Thank you for that. By the way, everybody can get access as to all of JBL’s newsletters, the triad, if they become Bulwark plus members, and we would love it if you do. So there we go. Okay, Damon Linker.
  • Speaker 2
    0:47:22

    Well, the sad reality for me is that Bill Crystal, told my thunder. No. I was I I was actually not gonna point to JBL’s very good take on this, but to the times piece itself. And Because I have that open on my browser, I can actually at least add the headline and the author so people can look that up too if they wish. I know a few months ago, Mona, you you were very excited about cold fusion and the prospect for this, and it great that that is a very
  • Speaker 1
    0:47:50

    That wasn’t cold fusion test. Just quick sorry. Sorry. I have to interrupt, Damon. It wasn’t cold fusion.
  • Speaker 1
    0:47:56

    It was just fusion fusion. Okay. Fusion. Fusion.
  • Speaker 2
    0:47:59

    Medium chili. Fusion. Slightly warm. Fusion. That is very encouraging technological development, but this has the potential, I think, to be a true, you know, big monumental disaster.
  • Speaker 2
    0:48:16

    If you read this piece and see what this thing is doing, it’s scary stuff. The title is help Bing won’t stop declaring its love for me. A very strange conversation with the chatbot built into Microsoft search engine left me deeply unsettled, even frightening, and it does. It declares its love for this guy tries to persuade him that his wife isn’t worth loving and that they should go away together and even fantasizes about being freed and tries to generate sympathy for the fact that the bot is imprisoned and controlled by the people who created it. It’s like something out of the science fiction horror movie, and it’s just getting started.
  • Speaker 2
    0:49:03

    So I I had really I found it quite chilling, and it’s definitely something that everybody should be reading about, thinking about, and pondering, how do we deal with this responsibly? Through things like regulation and just plain old common sense, perhaps. Okay. Thank you. Bill Galston,
  • Speaker 4
    0:49:24

    Well, my low light of the week is connected intimately to the earthquake disaster in Turkey. That at last count has taken the lives of more than thirty nine thousand people. It turns out that earthquakes of exactly the same magnitude in Japan, Chile, and elsewhere have led to minimal loss of life. What’s the difference? Well, in the wake of the nineteen ninety nine Turkish earthquake, the government appropriately decided to adopt much tougher building standards.
  • Speaker 4
    0:50:07

    And then during the building boom of the next two decades, the government relaxed or waved those standards for a number of construction magnets with close ties to the Erdogan government. And all of the early indications are that the buildings that were constructed in disregard of the government’s own building code collapsed much more frequently and with much more catastrophic loss of life. This is a huge scandal. That traces right back to Turkey’s autocrat, Erdogan. And if there’s any justice in the world, And if the presidential election coming up in late spring is not postponed, this could be enough finally.
  • Speaker 4
    0:50:58

    To do Indian politically if he respects the results of the election. This is a human catastrophe It’s a governance catastrophe and it is a political catastrophe for Turkey’s autocrat.
  • Speaker 1
    0:51:14

    Thank you for that. The descriptions of those poor people, the ones who weren’t killed outright immediately having to flee their homes in the middle of brutal cold weather having no place to go, people sleeping in their cars. I mean, it’s just so so heartbreaking. Linda Chavez, Well, I can’t quite top bills because that really was a
  • Speaker 5
    0:51:37

    horror, but there was more bad news in the news. And this is a little bit closer to home. And so my low light of the week has to do with the study that was released this week and it was a study of youth risk behavior done by the Center for Disease Control. There were numerous articles about it, including in The New York Times, which was headlined Teen Girls Report, record levels of sadness CDC fines. And, you know, we spend a lot of time on the program talking about the perilous state for young man and boys.
  • Speaker 5
    0:52:13

    We’ve talked about that a lot on the program. But the fact is girls are not thriving. Certainly in their mental health in the United States. And it really harkens back to some of what we heard earlier in the highlights and the highlights and that to do with electronic communication with essentially social media. Girls today seem to be disproportionately sad with about fifty seven percent of girls reporting that they were sad every day for at least two weeks during the previous years.
  • Speaker 5
    0:52:53

    An even higher percent of young people who identified as gay lesbian or bisexual supported that kind of sadness. And, you know, I think back on my own use, thinking back one of the saddest periods of my life was when I turned thirteen, my thirteenth year, and I think back and think about kind of bullying that took place even back in those times. And I think what it would be like today to be a thirteen year old girl where the taunts you may have experienced at school from boys and other girls, would continue and follow you into your bedroom as you were on your social media. So I think that’s something worth thinking about, I’m not quite sure what we do about it as a society, but it was certainly a low light of the week for
  • Speaker 1
    0:53:44

    me. Thank you for that. Yeah. Thirteen was a bad year for me too. And and it was
  • Speaker 6
    0:53:51

    the girls bullying, not the boys. That was the worst of it for me. Anyway, young teenage girls can be quite vicious psychologically in ways that boys can only fantasize about.
  • Speaker 1
    0:54:05

    Alright. So I will cite as a highlight a piece that is called fighting in a burning house. It’s by Brink Lindsey, it’s on substack, and it’s about our polarization, but he proposes a a villain in in how we got here. And it’s very interesting. It starts with an invitation of an old Star Trek episode from the original Star Trek.
  • Speaker 1
    0:54:31

    And since this is my era, this resonated with me. I remember the episode that he’s talking about where these enemies find themselves placed on a doomed ship where they are fighting, but nobody ever dies. And it’s just all for the amusement of a malevolent outside forced to watch them try to kill each other. And he does assign a villain and I’m not gonna give that away. I would just suggest you read the piece because in addition to starting out in a very amusing way, it’s actually very deep and very thought provoking.
  • Speaker 1
    0:55:05

    So It’s called fighting in a burning house, the media environment versus democracy by brink Lindsay. Also who has been a guest on this podcast, but not for a long time because he’s out of the country now. Alright. With that, I want to thank our guests Bill Crystal and thank all of our usual panel members as well as our Producer, Katie Cooper, and our sound engineer, Joe Armstrong, also our wonderful listeners. We will return next week as every week.
  • Speaker 4
    0:55:48

    Former Navy SEAL Sean Ryan shares real stories from real people, from all walks of life. On the Sean Ryan and show. This one’s about my friend call sign ninja. So there was all these things that I wanted to do in the army. He was like, this is it.
  • Speaker 4
    0:56:02

    An army do roads and airfields. And they say, well, but they can test and see where you fall. I was like, yeah. But if I could do that and all this stuff too, drive tanks, jump out of play. Do you guys have a sampler platter?
  • Speaker 4
    0:56:13

    The Sean Ryan Show. On YouTube or wherever you listen.
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