Indictment 2.1 (The Secret Podcast PREVIEW)

Hey there. It’s JBL. On the Secret Show with Sarah Longwell today, we talked about the superseding indictment, Hunter Biden, and the new campaign that Sarah is running. Here’s the show. Okay.

Indigenous two point one. Is that what we can call last night?

This is three. This is three. Is a full full three.

No. This is the superseding indictment that we got last night. We haven’t gotten the third one yet. So last night, we got the superseding indictment. Which is Jack Smith’s updating of the last indictment, the documents case.

In which it adds, a new target and new charges.

You know what? It’s so funny. I’ve, like, read about I you know, spent I read all the stuff. And it’s still in my head, I was like, this is the third indictment because there’s so many indictments. And I’m like, that when you just said that, I was like, oh, wait.

Because I was like, wait. The third one’s gonna be Georgia. And then I was like, no. It’s the January sixth is the third one.

Yes.

And then probably Georgia, but right. This is actually this is still the docs case. And for some reason, and this is why I don’t think that Americans, this can impact them is because when close political observers, like it all just washes over you as like one big ball of legal catastrophe for Donald Trump that will make no difference to any voters. It’s, like, hard to parse.

So the new defendant is Charlie Sykes oliveira, who is a Marlago property manager, and I’m just gonna read you one paragraph from Kim Waley’s piece about this. On Monday, June twenty seventh, De Oleviera, approached employee number four asked him to step away from his office and walked with him through the basement tunnel. Once inside a small room called the audio closet, Diola Vieira allegedly told employee four that, quote, the boss wanted the server deleted. End quote, the server here has, surveillance photos and surveillance video of them going and trying to move documents they shouldn’t have. Later that day, at three fifty five PM, Trump called Dale Riviera, and they spoke for approximately three and a half minutes.

This is the I mean, I can’t tell if this is more like a spy movie or more like arrested development. It feels like arrested development. Like, there’s always money in the Afghanistan. But, it’s I mean, just it’s all bad. It’s all very bad.

And the most interesting thing is that what Kim says, maybe the mum’s injury, the most politically relevant thing is that because of this superseding indictment, The planned trial date of May twenty twenty four is likely to be moved back past November twenty twenty four. So this trial now is is possibly going to take place post election. And, what this means is that the two other co defendants with Trump have every reason in the world not to cut a deal. Because the, from their perspectives, their get out of jail free card is, like, the big guy wins the president’s name just pardons us.

Yeah.

We hang with him. Great. Great job, America, and nobody’s gonna care. This is right. Nobody’s gonna care.

Like, this how many how many votes are gonna be moved by the fact that he’s under criminal prosecution for, like, stuff that’s kind of serious? No.

No one nothing’s gonna be moved on the primary side. I think the question is is what happens on the general election side.

You think it’s gonna move people? Because right now, the matchup pulling trump is I wrote about this this week. He’s pulling five percent better. Five points better than he performed in twenty twenty against Biden.

Yeah. So this is the thing. I mean, I am yelling at anyone who says that Trump’s easier to beat than, you know, anybody. I’m like the char Trump can’t win or I’m like, you got absolutely he can. And I listened to swing voters.

There’s a lot of backsliding among swing I’ve I’ve mentioned this on the Secret Podcast. When I get back into, doing the focus group podcast, I’m gonna prove it to everybody and let you listen to how some of these swing voters sound. I mean, we just we did a swing voter group last night and, of the they were all people who voted for twenty sixteen? Sorry. I’m just

Oh, no. It’s not

it’s not that there’s actually there’s actually a slightly better group than we’d seen. It was actually slightly better, but you know, they so they voted for for Trump in sixteen, Biden in twenty. Six would vote for Biden today. Two would vote for Trump. So he’s lost two people out of this group.

It’s usually a little more. The bad the really bad news though was, when they’d none of them had heard of no labels, but when we said this third party ticket might be, like, they were all like, yeah. I’ll vote for that. Cool. And and so, not not ever.

Not everybody, but like some and this is this is where you know, I think there’s gonna be this really key group that Will Saletan double doubters or where they sort of do a pox on both their houses, that were willing to go for Biden the first time because he was sort of theoretically just a safe alternative to the Trump chaos, but who they do, they sort of don’t think he’s done a good job. They, you know, are about the economy. Although I will say when we, when the moderator was like, so things are, you know, do you feel like things are improving, you know, as the economy has gotten better and we and they were all like, oh, yeah. No. It has gotten better.

Like, can hear some examples of improvement It’s like, they were actually they would acknowledge it when you raised it, which is, I would just say, evidence that the Biden administration really needs to start talking about being good because when you tell people it’s good, they’re more likely to be like, yeah. Yeah.

You should just trademark the phrase Bidenomics and say it every every fifth sentence, don’t you think?

Maybe, but they need to be, like, bidenomics good. Economy good. I don’t even think Biden’s just economy good. Economy good. Anyway, but but I do think that this, these double doubters are gonna be kind of the ball game and also the question of, like, And I think it’s probably the answer still yes that Trump inspires big turnout, but, like, you know, do people are people just like less amped about it?

But but, the one call so as as nervous as I am, as nervous as I am from what I hear in the focus groups, there’s also the fact that, like, Trump is mostly sitting on truth’s social sounding like a lunatic. And so, like, voters aren’t seeing as much of him as, like, we are who sit and see these, like, weirdo things that he’s putting out. I think the question is is what happens when you really are looking at Trump? Closely again. This is it always happens with Trump that he the more you see of him, the less people like him.

Right? Like, theoretically, people take it, like, right now, I think there’s, oh, yeah, I like the economy more under Trump. But I think when people see him, There’s there’s a some of that might subside.

What did they think of the indictments? Did they know anything about them?

Yeah. People know about the indictments, but, you know, people can’t, so I would say, people think that Trump did it. Even in Trump groups, oftentimes people think that he did it. Like, did something wrong wrong. They they just but here’s what they say.

I’m I’m sure if well, I must have talked about this.

They all do it?

Yeah. Biden does it. Hillary Hunter, Hunter. What about what about what about, to and that’s why it’s a two tier justice system because Trump getting in trouble for something that all these other guys have done like, no. That that’s how they think about it.

And that’s why you see in the polling a discrepancy between people who think trump is guilty where lots of people will say, yes, we think he’s guilty, but it’s not easy to impact his head to head polling.

So Kim’s this is a great segue to to hunt So we had some Hunter news this way. And you you’re right. There is a two tier system of justice. The one hand, we have Donald Trump fighting all of this stuff tooth and nail. On the other hand, We have Hunter Biden, who has been under investigation by a US attorney, who was appointed by Trump, and who started investigating Hunter Biden under Trump and who Joe Biden refused to replace when he took power, because he did not want to infer interfere in this investigation.

This US attorney, forced Hunter to cop to a plea deal. Three months ago, two months ago, on charges in which he was going to plead guilty. And That deal went, and many people were upset about it and said it’s a sweetheart deal. And that deal went as all plea agreements do. To judicial review with the presiding judge to look at it.

This judge also appointed by Donald Trump. This judge looked at the deal and questioned both sides and said, Yeah. I, I don’t think you guys actually agree on what the terms of the deal are here. And, this is not looking kosher. You guys go back to the drawing room and figure it out.

Look at this two tiered system of justice where all of the justice stuff works with Oh, and and yesterday, The White House, was asked about pardoning Hunter Biden and flatly said, no. We will not pardon him. That is not on the table. So, yes, it’s a two tiered system of justice. The system of justice works very well with Hunter Biden.

Basically exactly as we would all want it to. Yeah. Am I wrong about that?

No. I don’t think you’re wrong about this one. I I like with the hunter again, this hunter Biden stuff, is a story that I just cannot I I am not going deep on it. But I I I I have more of an impression really of the way Biden the administration has handled the hunter stuff, which I think has been quite good.

Thank you.

Thank you. Well, I I mean, I I just think that the, like, the saying pardoning is off the table is exactly the right thing to say. We certainly know that Trump would pardon. Absolutely, you know.

Ivanka. And

yeah. Right.

Maybe not Eric. Eric’s stupid. He didn’t like Eric all that much. And definitely not the the Tiffany. Tiffany.

Tiffany. Tiffany have to go to jail and do orange is the new black. But he would absolutely pardon, Don junior and Ivanka.

Yeah. So I don’t know. And and I think that, yeah, the Biden crime family, you hear people say. I I mean, I I think if Hunter goes to jail, I think it loses Joe Biden. This is the one thing.

None of the people in the swing voter groups, like, the way that they viewed the Hunter Biden stuff, is like and even, we asked about the granddaughter, which, by the way, I don’t think you and I have talked about, but I think is really bad.

I wrote about it. It’s very bad. It’s extremely bad. And I I I think it is impossible to look at that and see Hunter Biden as anything but a bad person.

A bad he’s I mean, Hunter Biden is clearly, I think, a really not good person. I think

But he was clearly a troubled person.

Right.

And, you know, maybe but but I think the the the daughter stuff pushes us way out past troubled and into just you are a bad person.

But but don’t you think what about Biden? What about I mean, he’s got this granddaughter out there. I find it. I do find it shocking. I I mean, I don’t know.

Right? You, like, don’t know the what’s going on here exactly, but, I think you do know that there is a grandchild of his that exists in the world that he has not seen, or acknowledged. And I think that that is I don’t know. I don’t know how to read that other than

It’s not great. I I look, I mean, his son placed him in an impossible position where his son was denying paternity. On this kid. And Biden is a public figure. And he’s like, so what is Biden supposed to do?

Is Biden supposed to go against his kid who’s denying paternity and embrace the the the granddaughter? Is he

It’s been established paternity. Right.

Right. It has been has been established, but they were also in the the process with all the. Okay. Now the paternity has been established. What is Hunter going to do in terms of you know, making good to her and her mother.

And it’s just he places he he placed Biden in an impossible position. I don’t think anything Biden did could have been good, but not seeing and embracing the granddaughter is bad.

To me, it is flatly bad. I I don’t think there’s any other way. And I I I I I’m sure there’s a lot I don’t know and whatever, but I think, I don’t I just can’t see a scenario in which you don’t

— Fully fully agree. —

acknowledge, and go, like, I don’t know, paternity is established. Go see the kid, and I I don’t know. I I so so but I will tell you that from the voters standpoint, the voters have like a oh, yeah. There’s one of these in every family. Like, they just don’t hold it against, you know, every some people addiction And having a member of your family be, like, troubled is a thing that a lot of people relate to.

And, like, none just they just all dismissed. They the the things that they didn’t care about were, like, they didn’t care about the anything with the Biden family stuff. They just see a personal issue and not relevant. And then also, they we asked about the idea of Biden getting impeached

But what do you think about that?

One moment was like, how hard can I roll my eyes? Like, they just thought it was stupid. The idea of impeachment.

That’s interesting to me. So do you think that could do you think that could help?

What’s what I said on the next level? Yeah. And

I’ve been thinking about that a lot.

I think if they tried to impeach him, I would say, it ultimately works for Biden. And I I explained why on the next, but, like, I think that a lot of the there’s just a lot of, like, What would I what what would be the right word? Like ambivalence toward Biden from the left? Right. You know?

And, his low poll numbers, as we’ve discussed, many times reflect, that at least there’s a chunk of Democrats who don’t approve of his job ostensibly probably because he’s not progressive enough and he they’re they view him

as not being enough. Probably right. Yeah.

And so I think you get a rally round Biden, from the impeachment

what if it’s just an impeachment inquiry? Like, what if they don’t get all the way to the vote?

Yeah. I still think Like,

can they thread that needle where the Republican say, see, we did impeachment, but they don’t do it in such a way to create a backlash.

You know, these are hard. It’s hard because you gotta see, like, kinda how plays and how they do it. I just think these, like, if you if if the committee on weaponization of government is any indication, these guys are not particularly good right now at the inquiry side. Like, they’re stepping all over their Janetalia. And I just I I I I would if I had to lay money, it would on an impeachment inquiry of any kind where they tried to get it, that they end up helping Biden solidify his base, making reminding people of why they hate Republicans.

And some of it’s just from how much I watched Republicans rally around Trump when they go after him. So yeah. I think I that that is that’s that’s how I think it would play. I think they do it at their peril.

Okay. You have started a new campaign, had a big, big launch in the New York Times. Would you like to tell the people about it? Because this is one of the fifteen different hats you wear.

Yeah. I don’t usually talk about the stuff we do on the more active aside.

We don’t have to if you don’t want to. Didn’t mean to put you on the spot.

No. No. No. I well, I I do wanna talk about it just because I I think that it’s worth look, we talk a lot on both the next level and here, like, what do we think the right strategy is. And what is gonna shake Trump loose?

And I think everybody here knows that I also do work on the, like, we try to figure out how to I mean, we spent tens of millions of dollars in twenty twenty trying to, elect Biden and defeat Trump. Through our, Republican voters against Trump campaign in twenty twenty two. We were the biggest outside spender against Carrie Lake. We went after all of the election deniers also helped some pro democracy Republicans and, like, that’s the lens through which, you know, I think we spent, like, twenty two million dollars in twenty twenty two. On trying to defeat the anti democracy Republicans.

And so, I don’t I, you know, Donald Trump is cruising to this nomination. And I’m not sure what we can do to disrupt it, but doing the focus groups, which I do both to tell all of you guys what the people are thinking, but also strategic reasons to try to understand what can you do to loosen Trump’s grip on the party. Is there anything you can do? And obviously in my analysis, I’m pretty bearish on our ability to not have trump be the nominee, but there’s one path and I’ve talked about this on the next level. Tim and I were arguing about it actually this week a little bit, which is that there is there has been a chunk of voters this whole time.

Right? I I talk about the party. I think there’s sort of thirty percent always trumpers, thirty percent, maybe trumpers, thirty percent move on from trumpers, and then maybe ten percent never And those ten percent tend to be distributed in between sort of ASSA, Chris Christie, herd, and maybe like a Nikki Haley, Tim Scott. Right? Right.

But then there’s the move on from trumpers, and those were Ron DeSantis people. They really wanted, and that there’s a reason that the way people talked about DeSantis, especially when DeSantis was just really popping after twenty twenty two. I mean, we could barely find somebody who wanted to immediately say, like, yeah, I’m all in for Trump. Those move on from Trump people, even the baby trumpers were really Ron DeSantis curious and really excited to see him. And the way they talked about him was Trump without the baggage.

And that is because they catastrophize about Joe Biden, right? I’m gonna go by the worst president in history. We’re in a great depression and everything, you know, and so they want someone who can win. They want someone who can win. And electability really matters.

And this is where I’ve said this a thousand times. Like, I do not understand the DeSantis team strategy. Like, They had a very clear path, which was to consolidate the move on from trumpers, get to thirty percent and start working their way with that viability into the Baby trumpers. And make a case for like, Trump was a great president, but also he’s too old. He, you know, he screw he’s, you know, swing voters never gonna vote for him because he tried to overturn an election.

Like, and maybe you I understand that it is dicey to see how hard you can go. But I think a talented politician would have figured it out. Ron DeSantis turned out to be not the least bit of a talented politician, and in fact, none of the other ones are either. I find it almost insane that after seven years of people having seen trump, seen it what failed against him last time, nobody has been able to, like, figure out how to take him on or, like, they’re all doing the same things they did in twenty sixteen. Like, no one’s changing strategy.

And, you know, so these voters gotta look at Ron DeSantis, and they now, you know, they’ve basically been like, So but there is this the even with people who say I definitely wanna vote for Trump. If you ask them, like, do you think he can win a general election? Even those voters are, like, I don’t know. And so, like, that’s it. That’s the one central anxiety.

The one hang up people have about Trump. Is that he has too much baggage. We hear it over and over and over again. I think he has too much baggage to win. A general election, and I think we need somebody else who can win.

And so that was it. That was the only door we saw cracked open with voters where there’s room for persuasion. And so, you know, I’ve always all the campaigns that I run have a messaging strategy in which the messenger is the message. And So in twenty twenty and in twenty twenty two, we found lots of, you know, people who voted for Trump the first time or people who’d been lifelong Republicans, all talking making the case, making testimonials, videos, real people talking about why they couldn’t support Trump. And we turn those into ads in ad campaigns.

We put them on billboards, we put them on TV, and they have tremendous persuasion effect because you can build sort of a tribe within a tribe. People who can maintain their Republican identity, but not vote for, not vote for Trump and either just not vote. Leave it Bulwark. Or vote for Biden. And obviously, you know, when you have somebody who voted for Trump in sixteen and they vote for Biden in twenty, that’s a net voter.

You get two votes for that.

Mhmm.

Because you take one from Trump and you give one to Biden.

Take a banana, take a buck.

That’s right. And so that is when you have those net voters, that’s gold. Right? That’s what you need to swing an election, and it worked. Right?

Turnout super high across the board, but Biden won the double doubters in twenty twenty, even though people who, like, weren’t that individ in? Or, ugh, I don’t wanna vote for a Democrat, but, like, he won them over. I think it’s gonna be a little harder. Going into to twenty four as we talked about. But on the primary side, we knew that we were like the only credible messenger can’t be somebody who it has to be people who voted for Trump twice.

And we knew that was gonna be hard to find, but we, we worked on it for the last six months, and we have, over seventy testimonials from two time Trump voters, talking about why Trump shouldn’t be the nominee. And they sound just like the people in the focus groups. Like, we knew that these people were there to go find. And, and here’s the thing about them. Like, unlike the other past two campaigns that we’ve done, those people were like us, essentially, or like closer to to to, like, people who had been identified as Republicans and now we’re society.

Yeah. They were I’ve been a Republican my whole life, but I just can’t do this.

That’s right.

That’s right. These are not bad.

These are not bad. So, like, I was not sure we could get this campaign done. But, you know, I got a crack team.

Oh, so what do they What is what are what are the give me, for instance, what is what is a, paraphrase an ad for me? I voted for Trump twice, and I think he’s the greatest president in my lifetime. And I wish he could be president again, but I I just don’t see how he could do it. Lorraine,

I don’t don’t. They don’t have that accent. I mean, actually, some of them who have, like, some of them have sort of a southern accent. I don’t know exactly what you’re doing, but some people have a sudden

Hey, again. It’s JBL. The conversation goes on from there. If you wanna hear the rest of the show, head on over to Bulwark plus and subscribe. We’d love to have you.