Hunter & Ron (The Secret Podcast PREVIEW)

Hey there. It’s JBL on the Secret Show with Sarah Longwell today. We talked about Hunter Biden and Ron DeSantis. Here’s the show.

So David Lion Arch, has a piece of his newsletter today about, like, whether or not we should take the Hunter Bidances.

By the way, he should have been a professional wrestler with that name. And now entering the ring from parts unknown. David Lionhart.

It might be Leon Hart. I’m not sure.

Well, if he was a wrestler, he would pronounce it lionheart, regardless of what it is really.

Deese santas or dust santas? So so he’s got in his newsletter. And I think he writes, quite a good newsletter. He’s, like, one of my essential morning reading.

Yeah. I better read him every day.

You know, you should you should do your newsletter. The problem with your newsletters, it comes out right in the middle of the day. And I have a job.

Yes.

I just don’t kind of sit around and read content. I do often I read your newsletters. I just often get to them later. Anyway, so he writes a piece about whether or not the Hunter Biden thing is a scandal. And This was maybe what I have, you know, I’ve I’ve said this before that, like, the Hunter Biden thing does kinda wash over me.

But I it the his point here in the piece is he basically says the Hunter Biden thing is real in the sense that Hunter Biden was absolutely influence peddling. He was absolutely using the Biden’s name, his dad while his dad was vice president, he was sitting on these boards where he was collecting a ton of money, basically because he was a Biden. That said, the but then he goes on to sort of explain, but that’s not what the right is accusing. Like, that’s not the story that they’re telling. Right?

The story that they’re telling is

one of Biden crime family.

Right. And And one of the points he makes is that, like, it’s one of the reasons, like, I think it’s hard is, like, the Trump family, we just got through the trump family where Jared Kushner walked away with a two billion dollar investment from the Saudis. And so the idea and this is it. Right? The idea that we have to listen to the exclamations of the people who totally were like, yeah, all, like, trump is having people stay in his hotels, and making people stay in his hotels.

Like, makes the secret service, pay money at hotels. You know, makes all these foreign people and tries to hold the cheat at, like, the doral. And then, like, and then What’s his name? Jared Kushner walks away with a two billion dollar investment from the Saudis. And, like, he’s got his kids installed in the White House.

And now I think there’s just I think it’s very difficult to have those same people be like Biden crime family, Hunter Biden. And so there’s just like, like, these people have no moral credibility. Why would I listen to them? And so I think there’s been part of me that’s just been like, okay. And yet, objectively, I think Hunter Biden is not a good guy.

That’s I think I think Hunter Biden is, like, not, not on the up and up. He’s clearly incredibly troubled, Right? Like, the gun charge is about him lying about his sobriety, in order like, and then, you know, get it in order to obtain a a firearm. Like, that’s the that’s the weapons charge against him.

Yes.

And so, and he clearly was. He clearly was influence peddling. So it’s not nothing. It’s just not the story Republicans are telling. Nor are they credible messengers to tell it.

But that said, like, I think why didn’t You know, this idea that like hunters showing up to state dinners, like, I guess I I guess I’ve been I’ve been contemplating what one does as a parent and as a president. And then I I also read, there was a piece in the bork, that Jill?

Jill, Lawrence.

Lawrence wrote. Mhmm. That basically was like, hey, Biden. Like, Stop inviting hunter to state dinners. Like, like, don’t have him flying around on Air Force one.

Like, this is a problem and you’ve got bigger things to, like, you have a bigger obligation here. And I and I think she got yelled at for that piece. Like, I think she took a lot of incoming for making that suggestion. But I think I basically agree with that. What do you think?

I I mean, just for the people on Reddit, that’s Sarah Longwell that she grew that piece. Not me. So light her up. I you know, I my thoughts on this are slightly complicated in that. Clearly hunter has been influence peddling, but not even I mean, influence scamming because he didn’t have any influence.

So this is the right now. When influence peddling is when you, you take money and then you exert influence, he went around pretending he had influence to get money and then people would pay him, I guess. My guess is these people are smart enough to know that they’re just taking a flyer on it. And, you know, maybe he can, maybe he can’t. They don’t care.

It’s worth if you’re the Chinese energy company who is Bang Hunter, which, by the way, again, the amazingness of the Trump was taking money from the same Chinese energy company the

country was.

This is and yet the hunter one where there does not seem to be any actual influence exerted. That’s the one that’s the problem for Republicans. It’s amazing. But between this and the trying to to deny paternity of of his child and, I mean, I just at some point, I think there is a you get beyond, like, hey, it’s just a troubled person to, like, I I know maybe bad person, maybe train wreck of a person. Maybe I I don’t know what it is, but, like, we’re past the point where we can just as a moral matter, I’m not even talking about the political stuff, say, like, oh, it’s the trouble guy.

I mean, the guy’s like, what, fifty five years old or something. You know, like, you, you know, you’re a grown ass man. He’s responsible for his actions, and I am comfortable saying, like, not not a good guy.

Yeah. That that’s I mean, I am, I think addiction, like, is just horrible and tragic, and I don’t care if he’s fifty five. Like, I can I can have a lot of compassion on the idea that, like, Hunter Biden is sick? And, the the question for me is, Maybe it is a political one. Because that’s Both talk

about the political one.

The the political one is is that’s the the Woodwood Joe Biden has control over.

Right. Right. I don’t think that I don’t think anyone should not

love his son or not try to help his son or not have his son. I think he I think he has to do every you know, I’m not judging him. I mean, I any any good parent is gonna love their kid. Through addiction. Oh, don’t make that face.

No. No. I I was making the agree face.

That wasn’t the agree face.

Listen, you can’t see me. So you just take my word for it, but I was nodding along with Sarah Longwell agreeing.

At the agreeing.

Any parents should love their kid no matter what.

Yeah. The question is is, is, like, how to handle Hunter Biden, which has become if not a direct liability, because I actually think swing voters don’t care that much. Is like a muddying of the waters of that there is a there is especially for low info voters, a tendency to be like, well, they’re both up. So I’ll take the one that’s more fun or the one that I think is better for the economy.

So, I think I’m Again, it seems to me we we have not seen any evidence that Joe Biden himself has acted improperly at all in all of this. And as a matter of, like, optics, I kind of think that Biden should just live his life, Joe Biden. The way he wants. And if he wants to have his troubled kid to it’s not like not having his troubled kid to steak dinners, will as a guest, will clear all of this up in the minds of low information voters. Right?

They’re gonna hear on, ghost of rush limbaugh’s show or whatever that is. They’re gonna hear they’re gonna hear, and the Republicans are gonna say whatever they’re gonna say anyway. And part of the the thing that people appreciate about Joe Biden is that for a politician he is a reasonably normal human being. And, reasonably normal being human beings are loyal to their family, and have personal foibles and don’t always care most about the politics. And one of the things that is charming about Biden is that He, he wouldn’t abandon his kid, which I certainly wouldn’t myself either.

The difference between abandoning and, like, me don’t come state dinners and, like, fly around on Air Force one on the taxpayers dime now that you have, like, influence peddled.

Yeah. No. I get that. I I think it’s a close call.

I guess I also think it’s a bit of a close call. Although there’s also then the the hunter element of it. Like, if I was My dad was president, and I was the main, like, scandal lighting him up. I might on my own, show the judgment and the decency to not, be like, I’m gonna be the center of attention here.

I don’t know. I mean, it’s it’s impossible to know parent kid relationships and, like, what internal family dynamics are like. You also have no idea how self aware this guy is. And I I mean, the more the more question is, will any of this stick? I think the best the best piece we’ve run on Hunter was by Mona, which was sort of doing the psychoanalysis to why hunter is so important for Republicans.

Yeah. And it’s because hunter is their get out of jail free card for everything that Trump has done. Yeah. And without Hunter, they would have to go and find something else. Like, you know, It’s not like, well, if they didn’t have Hunter, they would say, geez, Donald Trump is really bad and corrupt.

They would find something else, but but they have to have something, and Hunter is that handhold. The gonna cling to till they’re fucking dead. And,

I agree with that. I just think it’s important for us not, like, you can say that what the Trump guys did is worse. You can say that it’s in a totally different planet and still say that Hunter Biden’s influence scanning is objectively wrong and, like, skeevy. And, like, we’re, like, in the middle right now of also thinking about, like, the Supreme Court. You know, and all these trips that people take them on.

And like, I I just think there is a

clearance Thomas reporting. Yeah. And it keeps coming and coming the thirty four trips. The best though is his his RV. His quarter million dollar RV, which he was like, you know, I scripted saved and it turns out one of his billionaire friends underwrote it.

Really? I didn’t see that. They bought it for him.

They underwrote the the loan to get it. So You know, script and saved also had an had an assist from one of my richie rich friends. Amazing. You can’t make it up. You can’t make up who spends a quarter of a million dollars on an RV.

That is crazy. That’s crazy town. You can spend a quarter of a million dollars on a watch. Or a comic book. Those would be reasonable things.

Comic book. Yeah.

Maybe even a baseball card. But on a RV, which is only to depreciate in value,

Anyway, the point is is I think we’re at a moment of discussions around. How, like, how people use

their influence and, like, receive remuneration for that influence

in ways that are on toward around influence. And, I just I I I wanna make clear that I think it is objectively not good and had we not just come out of the Trump years. I think it would be,

Also, very not good.

Yeah. Yeah. Exactly.

And and he this, you know, I I don’t even know that we’ve seen anything to suggest that what Hunter did in terms of his influence scamming was illegal. It’s bad even if it wasn’t illegal. But that’s another important

That’s the thing.

I think distinction to make. Like, it’s not just like, well, he was on the right side of the law. It’s bad anyway. It’s not it’s not good.

That’s the Liam Leanhardt’s point. Like, that that’ll that’ll get you off in court, but, like, with public opinion, it’s still, like, sort of gross. Yeah. It’s not illegal, but if you are suggesting to the Chinese that, you know, you can your dad is the vice president, and I’ve got these, you know, high level connections.

But at least we got a president for whom there is zero indication that he himself has done any of this. This is, you know, like, Joe seems to be I don’t think there are any insinuations that are credible anywhere that Joe has done any of this.

Yeah. You know, I’m just gonna take the other side of myself for one second though. I will say my guess is is that if you checked a whole bunch of influential people, like, went through members of the Senate, whatever, and then went and checked their kids. I bet there’s a lot of kids on a lot of boards.

Oh my god.

I bet, like, there’s a lot of people with the with last names that get them places where, you know, sure. They’re talented and smart, but, like, they’re there because they have their

own bootstraps. Yeah. Yeah. No. This happens ever.

It’s happens everywhere in every in every walk of life. Right? You know, you’re at a school district, and your your mom the superintendent of schools and you become a teacher. Oh, you know, I’m gonna get hired real quick. Right?

This is this is how the world works around us. But it’s bad. But it’s bad. There. Okay.

Hunter Biden bad.

Nepo, baby.

We settled it. I’m glad. That feels good. Okay. I wrote about Ron DeSantis on Wednesday before I took a day Ron DeSantis.

A little vacation yesterday, a little spa day for myself. It was great. And I I suggested that we only have two weeks left with Ron DeSantis as a viable presidential nominee. And two weeks from now, we can basically stop pretending that, that he’s in. And and honestly, he might even start thinking about getting

This is a big swing. I so I think you’re I think this is not not correct. And Really? Oh, way off.

Did you read the piece? I did. Full majesty of my the first of argument.

I read the whole piece.

Okay.

Hard disagree.

Tell me more.

Even though I even though I agree in general on the death spiral, that he’s in. And after your piece was published, just to argue for you for a second. We saw the first poll, national poll from signal not the encrypted app. But I was like, whose signal is this full legit? But it’s it’s probably okay.

But Vivic, Viveache. Viveache has overtaken, DeSantis, with eleven percent, to ten. And I That’s

that’s rough.

Yeah. I don’t know that I think DeSantis is quite there

with the first debate.

But I think this stuff’s coming. Here’s where I

Wait till you see Vivate’s numbers after the first debate. Because let me tell you. He ain’t gonna be DeSantis that gets a pop.

I guess we’ll see. But I just think two weeks, they see this as a lot of money. This is my big quibbled. He’s just sitting on piles of cash.

I mean, the super pack is. Yeah. He’s not. Right? And that money’s gonna dry up.

Yeah. The super pack’s got a lot. That’s true. But, like, he transferred a bunch of the early money, the super pack, like, that’s his money. And so as long as the super back’s got a ton of cash,

Can he get that back? So I’ve I legit have no no understanding of this because to keep his own campaign going, like, to pay his whatever the sixty remaining staffers that he has and for his five car entourage wherever he goes. Like, He’s gotta be paying bills on that. And if the donor money the big donor money starts drying up, and he’s already maxed out a bunch of donors, Right? Like, they can keep funneling money the super pack, but how much money can he bring into his the actual Ron DeSantis twenty twenty four organization?

Well, this is this is where, like I said, the point that I agree with is that, like, he’s gotta have a good debate. Yeah. He’s gotta have a good debate.

Now you have seen him speak. Right.

I’ve seen him speak. I have. So what

do you think the chances are that he’s gonna have a good debate?

I love that you included the Charlie Sykes Chris, debate, because I that, you know, somewhere, I’m gonna go find it at some point. And, I was on a podcast, like, for I can’t remember. One of the UK papers and it was like their deep dive on American politics. And I they were like, make one prediction. And my prediction was Ron DeSantis would not be the nominee.

And it was based on that clip. It was like, look, I don’t know where this whole thing going and, like, the voters are wickling right now.

You didn’t do this last week. You did this long time ago. Okay. I’m sorry. I want you to get full credit

for this. This is when DeSantis was, like, super popping in the focus groups but I I was like, I watched that debate and I was like, oh, he’s bad at this.

Mhmm.

He’s not good. I just think you’re two weeks. Is. I, like, there’s no way he doesn’t go through Iowa. There’s, like, there’s no, like, he’s gonna he’s gonna be in the race through Iowa.

And he will, live or die there.

I so I would I would agree with that. Except that he may be scrapping for third or fourth place in Iowa. And to not come in second in Iowa, is catastrophic for his future viability as a person in Republican politics. Yep. Right.

I mean, this is For if he can get to Iowa and finish second and then, withdraw and hold off on endorsing Trump, if possible, and do his, I, you know, I I I just think we’re gonna lose. We’re gonna lose if we do this. And then he can say, I told you so if Trump loses, that’s fine. But if he if he were to knock It’s possible he won’t finish second in Iowa, like, he could finish behind Trump. He could finish behind Scott.

He could finish behind Viveke.

He could?

That would be I mean, if that happens, his pull his political career is over.

Yeah. Naturally. So and and that’s, I guess, like,

There’s a lot of tail risk, I guess, to that strategy. Yeah. Right? You know, if you get out now, you know what the risks are, but you could also say, hey, I was number two. I was number two in the polls, and I just, you know, we we saw a path.

I definitely saw a path forward, but I didn’t wanna be part of this divisiveness and it’s So, So

yeah. So you think if he has a bad debate, he just drops out.

I think it’s possible. I I because he he has three options then. Right? He’s gotta figure out. Do I wanna keep going and risk falling farther?

Right. And this is there’s a confidence question here, like, how confident is he and how realistic is he about his ability to finish second in Iowa. And maybe he’s one of these guys who, like, just assumes that every time he runs rolls up to the craps table, he’s gonna make his number And, like, you know, I never crap out. I’m a hot roller. I yeah.

Give me the rocks. But maybe he is, like, a bloodless, realistic calculator and will understand, like, what he’s really up against. And a lot of people will depend on how what the debate is like. Right? I mean, Christie has said explicitly that he’s gonna try to go straight at Ron in this debate.

He’s like, gotta get past him. Once we’re past him in New Hampshire, right we’re tied with him in New Hampshire. Once I get pissed, I’m gonna go in. I’m just gonna eat him. I’m gonna eat him for dinner.

Literally, then we can go after Trump at home in New Hampshire. Vivek has gotta make his move because he wants to get past Ron DeSantis in in Iowa. Tim Scott will try to stay above it all and be mister Nice guy. I don’t know. Like, yikes.

Wow. I think if he gets pants by Gavin Newsom.

What is this debate he’s gonna have with Gavin Newsom. Why is he doing this? Also, by the way, so this is

— — desperation.

Yeah. Well, but this is an idiotic like, why would you when you’re running for president of the United States just debate some other governor?

I I mean, because they feel panic. Right? Like, everything is going wrong. We have to try to do something to change the dynamic. Like, we just, you know, we have to shake up the etch a sketch and see if something will change it.

So maybe we get a moment in our debate with gavin Newsom. Well, I have to say, and I do not like Gavin Newsom. I think Gavin Newsom’s pretty slick debater.

Yeah. I also

I understand to say to Like,

to register that I really don’t like Gavinism. Sure. But I

And I would like Gavin Newsom to stop running for president already.

Yeah. I know.

Please stop, mister governor.

Yeah. Well, that’s right. Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newsom can boast fake run for fake run for president right now. That’s what that’s what it is.

Fake run for president. But if he gets crushed on Fox by Gavin, takes.

Yeah. I mean, I can see I can I can sort of see their logic? Right? What they’re thinking to themselves is. The Republican debate is actually kinda they don’t nobody wants to see Ron DeSantis beat up on other Republicans.

Like, he is at his best He is at his most popular when he is crapping on Democrats and, like, being surly and getting in their face. And they need that moment because when he does that to Tim Scott, Republican voters aren’t necessarily going to, like, stand up and cheer.

Yeah. I I mean, he’s at his best when he’s having another human being’s voice coming out of his mouth. That’s I kinda feel like What he should really ask for in the debates is to have a surrogate who stands next to him who, like, Ron whispers into his ear, and the guy just repeats the words in a better voice. So he doesn’t sound like this.

He does sound so whiny.

It’s I’m sorry. I realized that superficial thing to say. I say it all the time, but I really think it’s important. People think to themselves, do I like hearing from this person? Yeah.

I don’t know that anybody likes hearing from Ron DeSantis.

Yeah. So I

don’t know. Think he’s in no matter what. Oh. Well, here’s the question of this. If you were running, let’s pretend you were his consigliere.

So let’s let’s take away the, like, what will he do? Let’s go to what should he do? You were his consigliere. And your your chief interest is in you love Rhonda Santa let’s pretend he’s your brother. He’s your near do well brother.

And you, you know, you lost so you love him no matter what, even if he has issues and etcetera, etcetera, and you are trying to counsel him in such a way as to maximize his viability going forward. Because you know that the he’s just a political guy. He just wants to keep running for stuff his whole life. He just what would you counsel him to do?

I would change his entire messaging strategy. Right? I would stop, focusing

on trans

stuff. Constantly, I would stop fighting with Disney, and I would this is, part of you were telling me about Allupundant. But like, this is this is the advice I give when reporters, other reporters ask me this stuff, which is like quit the Culture War stuff or like at least having that be the tip of the spear, like the only thing you talk about, focus on competence and record gold start gold watching Trump. Like, this has always been, like, Trump was a great president, but this guy cannot take us into the future. Talk directly to the voters, like and and and he doesn’t do this right now.

He, like, elides Trump in this way that makes him look weak in beta. But he should be like, Trump was a great president, but he is seventy six years old. He is not gonna win a general election. I can beat Joe Biden. I won by twenty points in Florida.

Here’s how I did it and I unite factions. I can win over smoke flutters, but he’s gotta walk away. He’s gotta quit running on, like, anti vax, whatever, because nobody believes it anymore. Nobody believes he’s more electable because he seems so extreme. And they don’t like the six week abortion.

Position. And so he has to like he has to moderate himself and he’s gotta go back and fight for the group of people who wanna move on from Trump.

And so when should he get out? Again, for thinking about his future thinking about his future viability. Well, it depends.

It depends on how he places. I think if I think if he got it together and he was back around Like, Ron DeSantis has to get out if Rhonda Santis drops to five points. Like, if he’s in backfield with Nikki Haley and Mike Pence, then What

if he’s at eight nine? What if he’s at nine what if he’s between nine and eleven? What if he’s national number or between nine and eleven?

But see, he can live on that for a long time and and fight fight back for second like, he’ll he’ll eventually maybe it it maybe it doesn’t happen because of just who he is because his political talent is non existent. But, like, if he’s as long as he’s running in that second place, why would he get out?

Well, because other people are gonna move on him, and he’s drifting downward. And having to lee having leaving before you get leaving before you get thrown out by the voters is I think important. Well, maybe not. Alright. We’ve we’ve done our diligence.

We did twenty seven minutes on this. Talking about real politics. Let’s talk about Barbie. Hey, again. It’s JBL.

The conversation goes on from there. If you wanna hear the rest of the show, head on over to Bulwark Plus and subscribe. We’d love to have you.