How Universal Found a Brand-New Customer

Welcome back to the Bulwark goes to Hollywood. My name is Sunny Bunch from Culture Editor at the Bulwark. And I’m very pleased

to be joined today by Brooks Barnes. Now, mister Barnes is a staff reporter at The New York Times, and has a really great piece out on a part of the industry that has changed a lot over the last couple of years here, but I think nobody has really gotten good numbers on him. He finally got some good numbers. And we’re gonna we’re gonna talk about those today, but also just the shift in general. And that has to do with premium video on demand.

Now premium video on demand, I will ask you to explain here at a moment what that is compared to other types of video on demand streaming on demand, whatever — Sure. — and all that. But thanks for being on the show today. I really appreciate it.

Yeah. No. I I appreciate you’re asking. The I’ve I’ve been sort of hammering on Universal for a while to give me some numbers in part because they kept complaining that when I wrote about box office, you know, it it was taking an outdated view. We make a lot of money on PFOD.

You don’t understand. That’s coming from the focus people. And and I was like, okay. Well, great. Well, tell me how much money you’re making.

So, you know, we don’t have a lot of numbers, but we have some. And so to explain the the offering, you know, since the nineties, people have been able to order movies on demand through their TV set or late you know, more recently iTunes or Google Play and that usually happens after the the exclusive theatrical window about ninety days. Right? So it’s about these days, it can be six dollars to rent a movie then. It can be fifteen dollars to buy one.

But what Universal did during the pandemic is move that way up. Actually, they still offer that traditional VOD window, but they created a new one, they called premium v o d or p vod. And that can happen after as little as seventeen days and they just they they charge much much more.

There there are a couple of different things to unpack. Here. So, you know, one of the things that that is worth discussing is the breakdown of the theatrical window. You know, this is a thing that the theater owners have fought for a long time, they they wanted to keep a ninety day window of exclusivity in theaters And during the pandemic, obviously, that was a hard thing to keep going because

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Right.

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you had folks who wouldn’t go to theaters, you had cities that where theaters weren’t even open. So it was it was hard to maintain that that window. And one of the things that you mentioned in your story that I kind of forgotten about but was reminded, is that AMC negotiated a cut of the revenue on these on these things. Right?

Yes. So like, you know, some of the backstory was universal said, at the beginning of the pandemic, well, we’re just going to make these three movies available entirely on Demand Trolls was one of them, the sequel to the animated movie. And AMC sort of stumped its feet and made it very clear that they would not play anything that infringed on their exclusive window. So, you know, it’s part of breakmanship negotiations from these guys and ultimately universal cut them in. We don’t know how much it’s a small percentage.

So they get they get a bit of that premium b o d money. Which basically universal has then made other deals with other theater chains and it makes them sort of grudgingly okay with having that window shortened.

Because one of the one of the things that’s really interesting about premium video on demand, is, especially with how Universal is using it. And I feel like Universal is doing it differently than most of the other studios. They they seem to be more aggressively moving stuff on the PVOD. Right?

Yeah. The other studios, I think I think in terms of time. Is that what you mean by aggressors?

Yes.

Yeah. I think Paramount may do it at thirty days in some instances. Warner Brothers has been more sixty days after their whole project popcorn day and date experiment. We we’ll call it. And and so

Which ones remind remind folks. What That pseudo Maxx did.

Yeah. During the pandemic Warner Brothers HBO Max, they said that they’re going to they would release an entire year’s worth of movies simultaneously in theaters and on h b o max. So that’s a little confusing because h b o max is not video on demand. It’s streaming. Right?

Right.

But but so Universal has been really again, kind of aggressively shortening that window. I mean, I there was just news this week that the new fast and furious movie is coming to p v o d, I believe on Friday, June ninth, isn’t that it was was

I didn’t see that, but — Okay.

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but that sounds about right. Yeah. They and and you have to remember and we I didn’t mention this in the story. Just because of length, but, you know, universal is owned by a cable company that has a video on demand business. So they have for a long time wanted been the most aggressive in wanting to shorten that window speed movies to their customers for sale?

It’s interesting to to look at the the the strategy here just because the you know, again, I I understand where the theaters are coming from. I understand where the studios are coming from. But the the most fascinating part of your story was the the universal saying that they think they have found a new audience here. Not Maybe a brand new customer. Yeah.

Basically, a brand new type of customer. Right? Explain explain the logic there on Universal’s in.

So the big question on offering this at as soon as fifteen, seventeen days into theaters, which would be about three weekends, was Will it cannibalize ticket sales will people be less willing to go out and go to a theater when they know they can see that movie in just a few weeks at home. Secondly, how much would it cannibalize the downstream traditional v o d business, which is still quite sizable? And Universal has said now after three years that there is almost they found almost no impact on ticket sales and in my sort of crunching a bunch of numbers using just comscore data, it it looks like they’re right. And in some cases, it actually ticket sales have been stronger after the arrival of p v o d, and we can talk about maybe why that is. And they say, although they would not give me specifics on how much it has it it has cut into the traditional downstream BOD, but they say that it’s small.

So we have to take their word on that. And and the but but even if it’s twenty five percent, let’s say, which which isn’t small to me. But let’s just use that hypothetically. That’s still a lot of new money. Coming in.

And they in talking to Donna Langley and and her folks, they say that they think it’s a new per new customer who doesn’t who’s interested in the movie, not price conscious or less price conscious willing to but wants to see the movie sooner. Mhmm. It’s either that person or it’s a, you know, rabid fan went to the theater and and doesn’t wanna wait?

I’m I I’m I’m curious to see if Well, I’m I’m curious if if they gave you any breakdown on the difference between family behaviors and non family behaviors. Because one of the numbers that jumped out to me was, look, here’s the movies that have made the most money on PBOD for Universal are Super Mario Brothers movie. Sing to I think it was one of the roles.

All of the big franchises, right, are you know, minions rise of grew, f nine, Jurassic World Dominion. Actually, I have a list here of of the biggest ones. Some of them I mean, Super Mario Brothers has taken in seventy five million already. So that’s that’s the biggest under this model with, I guess, if you accepting trolls, which has got an asterisk of his own because it never played in theaters. Sure.

So But some of the other ones were the Bulwark phone, Megan Nobody, that which is a focused movie, news of the world, the the Tom Hank’s drama sort of pandemic impacted. But yeah, families for sure, you can rent that or pay that that price and just play it over and over and over again. Right?

Well, I’m curious so one of the reasons I asked is is because I’m curious if they provided a breakdown on rentals versus purchases, because I would imagine. So if you were if I’m sitting at home with my kids who are like, we wanna watch Super Mario Brothers again. I know in my head, that means they wanna watch it every day for the

next Twenty times

for for the next week. Yeah. Exactly. So there that that then pushes me to spend the extra five or ten dollars or whatever in purchase as opposed to rent. I mean, did they do do you have any sense of how that dynamic is really playing out?

Yeah. They didn’t get into that, unfortunately. But the prices are pretty are pretty steep early early in there. It’s twenty as much as twenty five dollars to rent for forty eight hours and thirty dollars to So if you’re if you’re looking at a a repeat family offering that thirty dollars is actually probably pretty reasonable.

Yeah. I mean, it just Look, again, I know as somebody who has sometimes had to do these things for work, I think to myself, Well, I I guess I might as well spend the extra five dollars because if I ever watch it again, that’s gonna be the cost of a VOD rental down the line or — Sure.

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GED or Blu Ray or whatever. Might as well. Just do that. So let’s let’s talk about the actual financial benefit here for well, before we get to that, actually, you had you had mentioned you you have thoughts on why. Some of these things do increase ticket sales as as we give

ticket sales a boost. Yeah. You know, I talked to start I talked to them about marketing because one of the things that studio executives had had been saying for a long time is that we wanna be we need to be smarter with our marketing money. And if we offer VOD closer to the theatrical release, we can compress some of that marketing spend, some of the, you know, overlap. And they said that they were not spending less in marketing overall, but they felt like, you know, had having moving having moved money from you know, the traditional v o d window basically up that second boost of marketing telling people that you can buy it in had had some bleed over to people realizing oh, it can also see it in theaters, but also in some cases, like with Puss and Boots, right, that that another family movie that was available on via PVOD very early, that word-of-mouth started helping the theatrical run also.

I mean, how does that actually did they did they get into how they think that actually works Because if I’m you know, again, if I’m if I haven’t gone to see it in theaters yet, but it’s also at home. I’m I’m not sure why I would take my kids to

to see that. Well, I guess it depends on how much you want, you know, your various forms of babysitting. You know? An active or or an activity or whatever, you know, like, oh, my neighbor said, you know, they bought it and their kids won’t stop watching it. Okay.

So that, you know, let’s plan that that Saturday day after all. It’s kind of like an insurance policy almost. Like, you know, you don’t want a page and go through castle of going through a theater unless someone tells you, or you have a pretty high confidence that it’s gonna be a payoff. I mean, that’s why we have so many sequels.

Actual financials here are also really interesting for for the the studios. Because I you know, one of the things that you internalized when you spend a lot of time looking at Studio Financials is, alright, three hundred million dollar gross isn’t actually three hundred million dollars to the studio. It’s you split that with the the theaters and then there are distribution fees and, you know, foreign splits are different from domestic splits. Right. But VOD is actually a really good deal in terms of the the revenue splits for the studios.

Right?

Yes. It’s a high much higher margin. So they they get to they keep about eighty percent even a little more in some cases depending on the platform. And then the rest of that balance goes to you know, the the online store and then it’s that small slice to the theater owner. Yeah.

So compared that to fifty fifty or even forty percent that they’re keeping on on ticket sales. You know, they can you can see why they suddenly like that they like this business a lot. They wanna they wanna build it.

Yeah. And the the, you know, the other thing that you mentioned briefly, but I think it’s really worth hitting on here, is that, you know, universal in particular is owned my universal Comcast is all one big happy family. Right? They’re the, you know, focus features, universal Comcast. They’re all kinda in in so that’s essentially another stream of revenue for for the company.

The the cut that the cable companies keep.

Right. Yeah. In that case, if you’re buying it through Comcast, you know, my my mom, for example, has Comcast. You know, we were just there. Okay, sure.

I’ll I’ll rent that movie. I’ll pay I forget what we paid for. Probably, f nine. I don’t know. I don’t wanna I know I mean, I wanna disclose what we paid for.

But But yeah, that’s that’s then going to Comcast. You’re right.

And another another kind of interesting little nugget in this story is the way that this is benefiting smaller art house pictures. Right? So focus is the the the Prestige ARM of Universal, let’s call it. And they they have found if not quite a replacement for DVD revenue, at least a a little bonus.

Yeah. So in in the with focus movies, the purse you know, it’s much much thinner in terms of profitability. Right? The budgets are smaller, the profit is often smaller, all of that. So if you have even a few million couple million dollars in added profit from PVOD, they’re saying that can really make the difference financially for some of these little movies or comedies dramas that have not been doing well post pandemic.

And it as they explained it. It it went And there’s some As they explained it, there’s as the Sorry. As they explained it, it has allowed them to continue in that business where most other studios have cut way back. Right? You know, ten ten releases theatrically a year maybe, twelve, fifteen.

Universal has done, I think, they have twenty six planned for this year. So they say that that added money without it, they would have to cut back. Now the asterisk there is that they need the theatrical buy in. So the messaging is to sort of theaters like let us do this and we’ll continue giving you a large volume of movies.

Mhmm. Yeah. I mean, have has there been any pushback in the now the pandemic is, you know, over and folks, the box office revenue is recovering to kind of if not quite pre pandemic levels close enough that it that it makes sense to to keep things in theaters. I mean, have they have they experienced any buyers regret on the part of the theaters, have the theater owners push back and said, we need you to stop doing this. Or what?

I didn’t find any of that. I talked to a couple theater owners, you know, a couple one CEO and They seem they didn’t wanna talk about it publicly because they still think it kind of undercuts their business at least if to some customers, but they they seem pretty happy with getting a slice. No other studios have really followed so far. So at least to the degree that Universal has. So whether if there was a big herd mentality up to that seventeen days, I I think that might change the calculus.

Mhmm. One of the things that you reported in your story, it’s it’s a a quote from Julie Alexander for a a previous gas on the Bull Work Coast of Hollywood, one of our favorites here. We love Julia. Sure, babe. But she she she told you that they have at parrot analytics where she works.

Seen some impact on streaming, on the audience for a streaming movie after it is available on PVOD in this early window. Right? Can you can you talk about that a little bit and explain exactly what that means and what that effect might look like? Sure. So the whole

the whole thing here is trying to maximize value for each film. Right? So we have we can get as many people to buy a ticket as we can, then we wanna have this new window revenue stream premium BOG then we sell it on traditional and on v o d and DVD, then after that, it goes to streaming. And what she was pointing out is when you sell it so early at in this premium BOD setting, that can impact negatively the value of the movie to the streaming service in terms of subscriber acquisition.

Mhmm.

More people it is just sort of you know, when you think about it, it makes sense that if more people have already rented have rented it own it, they’re going to be less likely to sign to sign up for a a peacock subscription when it arrives.

Right. Which makes sense. I think I think we can all understand that intuitively. At the same time, I’ve always been This is one of my long running theories hobby horses, is that I have never been entirely convinced how many people are signing up for streaming services for movies as opposed to original TV shows, which I feel like is. Where the the real money is, but I I don’t know.

I can imagine the folks I can imagine the folks at peacock going to the folks at Universal being like, you’re killing us here. You’re killing us. You gotta you gotta help us out.

But I’m sure. Right? And and so and again, why is Universal so hot on this where others are not it’s also part of how that company is is set up. Right? You’ve got the Comcast piece.

You’ve got peacock where they’ve always been less all in than than a max, for example, or a Disney plus. So they’ve decided, basically, or their strategy is going to be we want more dollars in a transactional case, and we think they think that didn’t say this to me in the interviews but I inferred that they think just what you said that the value in terms of getting streaming subscriber is less for those for movies. And I think Julie and other people would tell you that that’s true. Right? That that television series in library are actually much more important than new movies.

Mhmm. Yeah. Now, it’s interesting. I mean, we’re in such a weird It’s such a weird time in the business of Hollywood where I think nobody knows I you know, what’s the the line the William Goldman Lend knows anything. I feel like nobody everybody knows even less than they knew before.

Less. That’s that’s very true.

Because it’s it’s it’s really

not Yep.

I mean, it’s really it’s not even a movie by movie thing anymore. It’s an entire business model thing. I mean, you know, I’m I’m sure you read it, but the the long in New York Magazine about, you know, how the streaming model is broken. Yeah. I read that and I’m like, yeah.

No. That’s basically what I’ve seen for the last two years here. And nobody has any idea how to fix it. It’s it’s all it’s all bad.

And I was talking to someone this week in she at lunch who runs a big production company and she was saying that just they just feel exhausted or that’s, you know, speaking for herself in that you know, Studio is a seller to studios and streaming services. It’s it’s like, okay, run this way. No. Oh, wait and now we’re gonna run that way. Now your guess is as good as mine.

I don’t know. You know, it’s sort of at some point people are feeling it’s it’s pretty bleak out there.

It’s it is definitely wild. I mean, I and this is one one of the reasons why I was so excited to actually finally see some numbers from Universal, because I do feel like the

studios have played all of this so close to their chest, that it’s kinda hard to judge, you know, how how this is working out. Totally. We have to rely on their hopefully not wanting to get in any shareholder lawsuits for misleading them with these number of a few cherry pick numbers. Alright.

Well, I

mean, that is something you have to think about as as a journal Right? Like, well, why why are they coming me with these numbers instead of some others. Yeah? Yeah.

Of course. And wanting needing to double check it on my own to the degree that I can talk to other people that they didn’t know I talked to and try to you know, it may might really what what are the trap doors here?

Mhmm.

Are we are we setting ourselves up to be used all of those those things or things that I think about. Ultimately, in this case, we felt like because it was something that I had been sort, you know, trying to pry out for a while and and it didn’t all come in one swoop. You know, they said here are a couple things. And I was like, no, that isn’t really good enough. What about, you know, you know, let’s look more at the focus films and how are they doing?

And and so that made a difference to us instead of just to, like, you know, here’s some numbers on a silver platter. Why don’t you write those up?

Yeah. We probably don’t do that.

Yeah. Yeah. The the famous dadic dotes Well, love. Yeah. And pour over and no.

It’s it’s interesting. I mean, I I I I assume that they did not betray any sense of trepidation here, but I figured it’s worth asking. You know, I mean, look, I look at what has happened with Disney And the performance of Disney’s animated theatrical like, set aside Avatar the way of water, which obviously a huge mask hit is finally on is my kids excitedly called me into the room today or yesterday. We’re like, dad, look, avatar, the way of waters on Disney Plus. I was like, oh, do you wanna watch it?

They’re like, no, we don’t wanna watch it. We’re gonna watch it. I was like, okay. Well, that’s that’s fine. But it sounds about right.

But but You know, the the animated features for Disney have all kind of suffered theatrically at the box office, and there’s you know, you can you can look at any number of different data points and say, well, they aren’t they aren’t as good or, you know, oh, they’re in the pandemic, or you know, it’s hard it’s hard to separate all that out. But I I do think that there is a not small case to be made that the actual act of putting so many movies on Disney streaming in such short order, has undercut the ability to sell tickets at the theater. I I I mean, was it new?

It has to. Right. You know, tonight tonight in in here in LA, they have they’re having the premiere for elemental the next Pixar movie. And it’s at the Academy Museum. In in fifteen years, I have never seen Disney not do a premier at its own theater, the l cap in Hollywood.

Right? Maybe it’s booked tonight. I don’t know that for sure, but what I assume is happening is that they know that they need to elevate that pixar release. It’s it’s something, you know, that’s addressing the quality problem or question when you’re automatic when you’re associating with Academy. Right?

It’s like, this is art. Mhmm. And you know, the tracking tracking on that movie has been a little soft and whether it’s sort of

the the squishy reviews that came out of

can whether it’s the fact that people have been trained to see Pixar movies on Disney Plus now, you know, it it’s it’s definitely a challenge for them.

Yeah. I mean, I I was there any was there any sense of worry on that point from Universal? Because, I mean, look, I I look at something like Fast ten going to PVOD twenty one days after release, or I’m pretty sure it was twenty one days after release. And thinking myself, this you know, look, the the movie is struggling at the domestic box office, I cannot imagine a universe in which this helps that next entry in the series, but maybe it also doesn’t matter that much. Maybe these things are so front loaded that it just doesn’t matter.

When you look at the the box office performance on a on a chart, it just falls off like a cliff after that after that first couple weekends, three weekends for sure. And I think that they, at this point, on some of these franchises, they’ve started realizing, I mean, it’s such fan service at this point. Right? That they’re they’ve almost given up on broadening it it out to other to other audiences. It’s like, okay.

We’re gonna load these movies with every little trick and trick or treat that that the fans will like, get them out and then move it into the the pipeline to milk it in other ways. Yeah.

I’ll let just for for clarity say, a b, the thing that you mentioned about the the box office charts is a real one. What what’s the percentage of revenue that generally comes in the first seventeen days or whatever? It’s some enormous It’s it’s percentage.

An enormous percent and forgetting what it what it is exactly. But I was I I do have a couple of things here actually on showing the the impact of premium b o d. So for example, let’s look at the last fast movie. F nine, when it opened so it went it went on to PBOD after thirty five days. And after that time, it did four point four percent of its total domestic box office.

The previous installments in the best franchise never went on to PBOD didn’t exist. It did four percent of its total domestic box us after that thirty five day point. So it’s a little it’s a, you know, you’re you’re dealing with aging franchises and different quality in in, you know, different stars in some cases, but it’s it’s very little ultimate box office after — Yeah.

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that that that they throw the lever.

Yeah. No. I mean, it’s it it is interesting. And the again, the only thing I worry about is training audiences, that in the idea that you you know, if you if you’re just willing to sit out for that first couple weeks, you watch it at home. And that is not ideal.

It’s not ideal, but and it and it’s specifically with the Focus movies. And one thing I didn’t really get into is that those those specialty Art House movies, Tar was a Focus movie. Mhmm. For example, the coming West Anderson movie. And those movies build slowly over time, typically.

Right? Like, you know, there’s that limited roll out a few a few hundred more theaters, a few hundred more. And so if you’re telling your audience that o l b you can only you only have to wait a few weeks that specific more sophisticated, older audience. You know, that that is a potential long term problem in my in my eye. Yeah.

No. It it’s it’s a thing I think about a lot. It’s a thing I think about more than I should, frankly, since I’m neither a shareholder nor a studio exec. Just as a fan favorite. On you first.

Just as just as a fan of theaters. I I worry about this sort of thing.

Was there anything was there so you mentioned

I mean, look, it’s a it’s a New York Times news story, so you have a limited amount of space. What was some well, well, give me give me a deleted scene. So to speak from your deleted scene. Couldn’t what was something you couldn’t get in the piece that you you you really wanted to.

Well, actually, those percentages, I didn’t get into the story because, you know, as a mate went through the copy editing process, people were very confused about the, you know, can we just simplify this down? I’m like, yes, but I don’t wanna, you know

People want numbers. People want numbers.

Come on.

It’s forever that that tug of war between, like, this story is too this story is too long. Okay? Give you a shorter one. And then But but but don’t we need to explain, well, we could, but you’re not gonna get that length, you know, dressing world dominion, here’s another stat. It went on to p v o d on day thirty five.

Did five point nine percent of its box office after that point domestically. Interestingly, the movie before actually did a little bit better, didn’t, you know, never didn’t it played exclusively in theaters the whole time. It did six point six percent of its box office after after day thirty five. So not a big difference. But but a little tent for sure.

Mhmm. Yeah. It’s interesting. I don’t know. Alright.

I I always like to close these interviews by asking if there’s anything should have asked if you think there’s So that’s my favorite. About the aha. See? I’m stealing all your tricks. But this is but it’s but it’s I it’s an important thing because I think, you know, look, there are I don’t there are things I don’t know that I don’t there are unknown what is it?

There are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns? What are my unknown unknowns.

I think that that the thing that

I found that people were most confused by in

the both the reader comments and and a couple editors in the process was just how many different ways studios still splice and dice this this stuff. Right? And there’s a lot of confusion around just how every studio does it differently. So in Universal’s case, you’ve got the go to theaters, they go to this premium video on demand. They keep playing in theaters, then they go to rental and v o d traditionally at a lower price point, then they go to streaming on peacock, then they go to streaming on Netflix, then they come back to streaming on on peacock.

Yeah. And that’s just one studio. Right? And the timing is all different. And I think that, you know, if one thing I did hear from universal people about in terms of a worry is or, you know, maybe they put in they framed it differently.

They framed it as it it would be better for them and they think the the studio system as a whole if there was more lockstep if there was, you know, people had a general consumer had a better idea of when things would be available where and how.

Yeah. No. That makes I mean, there that definitely makes sense. And it’s a thing I hear from people all the time who were trying to figure out where a movie is playing, what channel I mean, set aside the windows, you know, just trying to find the actual channel it’s on is a or the streaming service it’s on is a is a enormous headache for lots of folks.

But they who knows? I mean, in my in my conspiratorial thinking and, like, they’re doing this on purpose. They’re making it super confusing, so I just give up search on what streaming service it’s on and just buy it on DVD or but buy it on PBOD. No. I

was there was there any chatter

from the universal folks about physical media and how that market is either dead or is, like, just kind of ossified to a point that it’s like, well, if we get money from DVD and Bluray, that’s great.

It really did seem that way. It it seems like, you know, that’s that business is over what whatever we get is is gravy. They they were not ready at all to say the same thing about that traditional v o d

business. That’s interesting. That is interesting. And again, as a as a fan of DVDs that makes me sad, but, yeah, well, Blue Rice, but four k’s, whatever. Whatever whatever I’m buying now, whatever format I can find it in.

Alright. Well, that was everything I wanted to ask. Thank you so

much for the time, Brooks. I really appreciate it. And there will be a link to the story in the email that goes out with this. So, you know, I hope I hope folks check it out. And my name is Sunny Bunch.

I’m a cultreditor at the Bulwark, and I’ll be back next week with another episode. We’ll see you guys then.

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