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He’s Running! Joe Biden is Ready to Run it Back for 2024 (The Secret Podcast PREVIEW)

April 21, 2023
Notes
Transcript

Sarah and JVL talk about Biden’s coming reelection announcement and DeSantis’s latest polling drop. Also: If Trump becomes the Republican nominee and you could wave a wand and have any person be the Democratic nominee, who would you pick?

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This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:01

    Hey there, it’s JBL. On the Secret Show with Sarah Longwell today, we talked about Joe Biden’s coming announcement that he’s running for president again. Also about Rhonda Santa’s greatest poll numbers. Here’s the show.
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:19

    I was
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:21

    So tell me, where do you want to start? Do you want to start with What’s the Ron DeSantis? Or the the news last night, it came out mere minutes before we got onto the Thursday night show that we’ve got an announcement from Joseph Robin at Biden come in on Tuesday in which he’s gonna tell America that he is, he is ready to finish the job.
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:44

    Is he doing it live or is he doing it via video.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:49

    I believe he’s doing it via animatronic robot. Like, whole of presidents at Disney World, Joe Biden, is Tuesday is making a video? Yes. It is it is going to be a video like he did. I believe Tuesday will be the anniversary of his video from the last time, was an exceptionally good video.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:08

    Did you did you by any chance see the the video of Biden in Ireland? Coming out of the deck of the castle with the dropkick Murphy’s
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:19

    instead of a better walk up music than the dropkick Murphy’s? No. There
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:24

    is not. The the problem is you have to be Irish to use it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:27

    Is that true? Is it cultural appropriation for me to, like, slam dance to that song?
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:33

    You can dance to it, but for instance, dropkick Murphy’s, that that song is a a staple walk up music for for baseball players. It’s big. But you can’t use it if your name is like Carlo Santini. Right. If if you are an Italian american and you would that would cause a gigantic bra.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:57

    Wow. Right? I mean, that’s So I I really believe your your last name has to be like Murphy or like McDougall or that’s probably Scottish. But but flatterity or something if you’re gonna use the drop gift card.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:11

    My grandmother’s name was Mary McLaren.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:14

    Oh, you could do that then.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:15

    Do you think
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:16

    they will get away with you? Yes. Absolutely. Absolutely. So you but you saw him and I I mentioned this because I
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:24

    have a question actually. Why were the Irish so pumped about Biden?
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:29

    Two things. First of all, because Joe Biden is a man of Irish American descent. Who has long loved it and owned it. And secondly, because the British were mad that he was doing it. Oh.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:40

    And so the British got there
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:42

    using a one British
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:43

    over this thing. And so the Irish side, like, f that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:48

    We love my dad.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:52

    So but you saw him come out, and it was basically a WWE entrance. And
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:57

    he wasn’t great. Oh, okay. He was he was great. No. He was great.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:00

    It was awesome. Actually, it was partly partly it was nice to see a crowd psyched about an American president. Mhmm. It just that felt good. But he he has this thing that he does.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:12

    A
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:12

    crowd that wasn’t Russian, psyched about it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:17

    He when he walks out, he does this thing where he, like, extends his arms and then extend him into fifth’s aid, which is exactly how he created Donald Trump at their base. And it’s like a very like, I’ve now seen him use it. But yeah. No. That was great.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:34

    I’m I I great. He’s gonna announce. I think it’s good for him to announce. I think we need to end any speculation about whether or not, you know, as long as he’s not announcing there’s gonna be these fake pieces on hit.
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:45

    Yeah. The missing hardest hit.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:48

    Yeah. Let’s just let’s just get this Donald Trump’s now and, you know, can I actually here’s a piece of I don’t know if it’s punted accountability, but remember when Donald Trump was getting in, like, right after the route of the November twenty twenty two election? I was
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:05

    like,
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:06

    what is this guy thinking? I I mean, we knew what he was thinking. We knew he was trying to get ahead of the indictments. We knew that this was pretty planned because he thought that the elections were gonna go his way. But I was like, but they didn’t.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:17

    And so I was like, just wait, dude. What are you even doing?
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:20

    Gotta gotta freeze the field and crap people.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:22

    But he it it was right. I mean, you were just watching how different the dynamics are. I know we’re talking about Biden, but like, and this kinda gets into the scientist’s people. Just this idea of he’s in and now, like, he’s racking up endorsements and, like, other people are just like, they’re either deciding not to run or it’s an asymmetric game where he’s in control, I can have all the media, and, like, they still have jobs to do in their home states. Specifically Ron DeSantis.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:46

    So I now I’m like, bam, I should just get in and just be the putative. Like, we’re not messing with this anymore.
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:53

    Yeah. I think that’s right. And he’s been, look, he’s been a very successful president. Even, like, moderately successful presidents usually get reelected. Right?
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:06

    And Donald Trump was a president in the middle of the worst pandemic — Yeah. — of the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans and the cratering of the economy, and he almost got reelected. Like, this is it’s it’s hard to beat a sitting president. And so barring a health event, which again is not like, oh, one in a million chance like barring this one in fifty chance or one in ten chance?
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:37

    Yeah. I would have one in fifty these gowns.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:39

    One in a five chance of a health event.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:42

    Does it
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:43

    the health event
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:43

    does not mean death? A health event means like —
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:45

    Anything that’s scary. — surgery.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:47

    A hip replacement I don’t know. Does
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:49

    he respond to him? No. Well, him is fine.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:52

    It’s fine. But if he goes under anesthesia, Kamala Harris becomes president for a period of time while he recovers, and that will be a feeding frenzy. And it will remind everybody that Joe Biden that that they’re essentially electing Kamala Harris for a second term.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:09

    Well, I I have thoughts about that, which we’ll get to in a minute. But barring that and if there is not a recession, then I think he’s going to he’s gonna be in a reasonably strong position. A reasonably strong position doesn’t mean that he has a seventy two percent chance to win. But he’s got, like, a fifty five percent chance, maybe a sixty percent chance, which is good against Trump. The bad news is that that In a one time out, like, having a sixty percent chance to win is great if you’re playing a hundred hundred hands of blackjack.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:44

    Right. Because over the course of a hundred hands, sixty percent’s really gonna show. Yeah. On a one time outcome, there is no functional difference between sixty percent and fifty percent. Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:54

    Right. It’s we are in a coin flip no matter what we do. But also, I think Biden is I talked about this a little bit on the livestream last night. I I would like to know your thoughts on this. If Trumpy is the nominee, There is no other democrat I would want running more than Biden.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:18

    So if Trump becomes the nominee, I would want Biden more than I would want Shapiro or Big Gretch or anybody else.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:25

    Because of the benefits of incumbency.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:27

    Because the benefits of incumbency and because, again, Biden’s weaknesses are less important match up against Trump’s weaknesses. Right? The old becomes a little bit, you know, old and old, cancel out a little bit. Biden being slower cancels out against, like, the just crazy word salad — Right. — of of Trump stuff.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:51

    And also because Biden’s contrast with Trump is, like, steady. He’s in known quantity. People can look around and say, actually, yeah, the last four years were out Right? Maybe they weren’t the best four years we’ve ever had. They weren’t the worst four years we’ve ever had.
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:05

    I still have a job. You know, milk is more expensive. Gas prices aren’t five dollars a gallon, but they aren’t two dollars a gallon. They’re they’re okay. You’re not asking voters to take a risk.
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:17

    Right? You’re presenting two known quantities. One guy who tried an interaction and one guy who basically never made you embarrassed or worried when you woke up in the morning. As to what would be happening. And asking presenting people with Trump versus, say, Gretchen Whitmer, introduces a whole host of other asks of voters.
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:37

    Right? It’s well, this is a woman. You’ve never elected a woman president before. This is somebody who’s only been governor of a medium sized state? Do you know who knows?
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:45

    Whether they’d be good and great? Will they be able to handle foreign politics? You know, whereas Trump then becomes the known quantity, we could say, Well, I guess, before the pandemic, the economy was okay. And, you know, I don’t really remember any of that stuff about Charlottesville. Who what was that even about anymore?
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:01

    You
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:01

    know, in a weird way, Trump becomes almost like the incumbent then. So if Trump is gonna be the nominee, which is not a sure thing, But, you know, it’s certainly at least a coin flip as well. Right? The Trump when the Republican nomination, I say his odds are no worse than a coin flip. I I want Biden running against him.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:21

    I don’t want anybody else.
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:23

    So here’s where I disagree with this analysis. First of all, I don’t know if you remember in the run up to the midterms how high gas prices got because there are people out there who are trying to help Republicans. Yeah? With high gas prices.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:38

    The Saudis do like Republicans? They
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:40

    do. Yes. And so gas prices will be five fifty or six bucks when it’s Donald Trump or Joe Biden. Second of all, Joe Biden’s liability, I don’t know how many times I’m gonna have to say this, isn’t necessarily it it is Joe Biden in his age, but it’s mainly Kamala Harris. It’s his age plus a VP that has a high likelihood of becoming the president.
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:58

    And so where I think Gretchen were where I Gretchen Whitmer or Joshua Peyro or Wuornock would be the most Useful is as a VP. Like, what I wish is not that we weren’t necessarily running with Biden, but that he had a really strong VP that people felt. Like, okay. Yeah. I can I can live with this?
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:15

    The old man, something happens.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:16

    So let me let me let me see if I can assuage that concern. That might be an issue if Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate was somebody like Mike Pence. A responsible grown up sober Republican who assured voters like, hey, don’t worry. Don’t worry. Like, you know, we gotta grown up over here.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:39

    I believe based upon the final year of Trump’s presidency that one of the lessons he took from it is that he can’t have those type of people around him, what he needs are absolute hardcore loyalists. And so I don’t think he’s gonna have a Mike Pence. I said, if if Trump wins the nomination. I do not believe that he is likely to take a Mike Pence type as his running mate. I think he’s much more likely to take a Sarah Longwell type.
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:09

    Now I specifically said sarah palin because I don’t mean sarah palin, but I mean carry away — Exactly. — a margarotailer grading a pick some of
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:18

    the It’s probably a woman, though. Right?
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:21

    It could be. It could be. I
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:24

    think it’s a woman.
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:25

    But she was saying, like yeah. No.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:26

    No. He’s been here’s I’ve I got pushed back on this, and we’ve talked about it. And this is I mean, he’s not laying a glove on Nikki Haley. And if she is in the race in South Sarah Longwell, and I don’t know if you’ve looked the South Carolina pulling up, but the pulling matters as much out. Like, she’s dominating Tim Scott.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:43

    They’re in South Carolina. Like, she’s getting a much bigger chunk of the South Carolina both than Scott is. Now he’s been in less time, so maybe that matters. But the state
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:50

    Everything in the state knows both of them. Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:52

    That’s right. That’s right. And I still think that Nikki Haley’s play is that maybe Ron DeSantis does because here’s We haven’t talked about primary mathematics in a while. So let me just throw a couple things out. One is that I was a caucus.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:08

    Right? Mhmm. And the democrats pulled out of the caucus and also Biden is gonna be the nominee, which means they’re like the dams out there in Iowa on a May. Anything to do? The independents don’t have anything.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:19

    Just ran
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:20

    a piece on it this week by Mike Murphy.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:22

    By Mike Murphy. Okay. So similar, they’re also DEMS, nothing to do in New Hampshire. Right? Roughly Roughly the independents or just independents in general.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:30

    Nothing to do in New Hampshire. The chances of, like, hailey or, like, like, outperforming in some of these places where, like, demos decide they got nothing else going on and they’re gonna go try to, like, cast a ballot for a semi normie. I think it’s not crazy. And so let’s say she’s running either a strong, third, or and like whatever. So he and Ron DeSantis can’t.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:58

    This is something I’ve been pretty convinced of. I think one of you guys made this point when I floated this earlier. DeSantis can’t get Kaley. Because DeSantis’ weakness will be that people are not sure that he’s the authentic real maggot deal. The Trump is.
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:11

    The Trump can’t pick Haley. And balance out his ticket. And so I think the chances of Trump rolling into the general with Nikki Haley as his VP is real, like a high percentage chance.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:25

    Two two things. I think, yes, I agree that it’s possible it can be a hailey. But also, I I again, I think Trump is looking forward to governing, and he doesn’t trust Nikki Haley. Why would he? Right.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:39

    This is you know, she flips and flops and she’s not a loyalist. He is not positive that if he asked her to to go and overturn the constitution, she might not do it. And I don’t think that’s what he wants. Right? I think he wants to strand himself with people who who did one one thought about the possibility of Haley.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:55

    So I would one hundred percent agree that Haley could pop for those reasons, if she was giving Democrats a way in to support her, instead of trying to, like, run to DeSantis’ right. You know what I mean? Like, she’s she’s trying to she yeah. She’s trying to modify herself, and that’s not I could see got being maybe a home because if he just sort of stays with his gauzy, like, if he doesn’t get specific and he just talks about hope in America and all that stuff and his just generally forward looking. I could see, you know, fifteen thousand Democrats in Iowa deciding they want to caucus for him.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:37

    I don’t know. I could see that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:39

    I don’t know. The the the the before times Republican candidates like Haley wear, like, these guys have they know her. They know the magnifications and act. Right. Now maybe that becomes vile to them and so they can’t
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:50

    decide to
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:50

    give over her.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:52

    She has to give them a way in. Right? You can’t So but I don’t know. But but all of that is to say that we got caught down a tangent on those because we’re talking about the Kamala versus Trump VP debate. I do ask you, though, If if Trump does become the nominee, is there somebody you would feel better about being the Democratic nominee than Biden?
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:18

    Because for me the answer is no. Like, if I if I got to handpick the Democratic nominee myself, I would pick Biden in that instance.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:28

    I would I don’t know. That’s a good question. There’s a there the benefits of incumbency are real. And and it would have to be like I would say like a certain things would have to happen. It wouldn’t just be like a straight swap.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:41

    But if Biden instead of coming out Tuesday and saying, I’m running again, said, you know
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:46

    what?
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:49

    I think we need a new generation of leadership and I’m throwing all my weight behind Gretchen Whitmer who’s been, you know, incredible and whatever, and Gretchen Whitmer immediately, like, grabs, warnock, what like, I don’t know. I I think that the energy around that and, like, the I just think it would be I don’t know. I I I I You get to pick.
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:12

    But you get to pick. So let’s let’s again, let’s just pretend it’s April next year. We’re one year away from here. Trump has just won Super Tuesday, and he’s not a hundred percent gonna be the nominee, but he looks like he is rolling towards the nomination fairly convincingly. And you, Sarah Longwell have the power to simply pick whoever the the Democrat is gonna be to beat Trump.
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:33

    Right? Forget forget the they don’t even have to win a primary. You could just you have a magic wand. Who would you want in that spot?
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:40

    I’d pick Gretchen
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:40

    Whitmer. Really? That’s interesting.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:43

    I so And like she’s untested too, I just think that the country is gonna be sick to their stomach about a rematch between Trump and Biden. I think that you keep talking about Biden, that’s fine. That is not gonna be the match up. You might as well think about it as Trump versus Kamala Harris. That is the race that they will run.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:08

    That is what they will talk about. And you’re right that the age kind of cancels it out, but if Trump was running against somebody younger, fresher, with a moderate profile who’s winning in a in a swing y state, good governor. Now she’s got some liabilities, but like, I don’t know. I I just I would I think I would take that scenario over, like, eighty two year old, Joe Biden.
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:34

    I guess I could do that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:35

    Think about how uncertain it is with an eighty two year old.
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:38

    Well, but is it is that more uncertain than the uncertainty of somebody like Wetmer, who I like quite a lot? But who is untested? Right? I mean, the scientists great on paper.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:49

    Yeah. And
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:49

    now there’s been testable. It’s true. You know, I don’t assume that Gretchen Whitmer you know, the the odds of her, like, emerging and being, like, totally rock solid. I don’t know. And it’s it’s the voters too.
  • Speaker 1
    0:18:03

    Right.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:04

    That’s true. Although, I will say that the when you talk to reporters who’ve spent time, like, the thing well, I was one of the reasons that I was always shorting. DeSantis is because, like, I kept talking to these foreign reporters who were, like, he sucks. Like, he is. He is not good at this.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:21

    And I was just like, everybody says, he’s mad. He’s sour. He doesn’t have a good relationship. You know, he’s glass jaw. And so When you talk to people about Whitmer, they’re like, oh, she’s so charming.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:32

    She’s really good at this. She’s very real. People use the word real a lot her. Like, she seems like a normal person. And so, you know, I just I just think I think there’s a really strong twenty eight bench for the dams, a lot of interesting people, a lot of Midwestern governors or governors of swing states, with more moderate profiles that I think could do really well.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:57

    And I might take it’s not perfect, but I would maybe take them over at the uncertainty of Biden.
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:03

    Hey, again. It’s JVELTA. Conversation goes on from there. If you want to hear the rest of the show, head on over to Bulwark plus and subscribe. We’d love to have you.
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