He Scares the Crap Out of Me (with Holly Otterbein)

However, everyone, and welcome to the Focus Group podcast on Sarah Longwell, Publisher of The Bullwork. And this week, we are covering the Pennsylvania Governors race. This race is near and dear to my heart for two reasons. One, I grew up in Central Pennsylvania. They have mentioned that.

And two, this race not a lot for the future of American democracy. Pennsylvania will have nineteen electoral votes in the next presidential election and neither party can really afford to lose them. The next governor will be responsible for certifying those votes as will the secretary of state who the governor will appoint. Enter Doug Mastriano, the Republican nominee. He’s a state senator from Central Pennsylvania, about seventy five mile from where I grew up.

Coincidentally, his rap sheet of craziness is about seventy five miles long. There’s also attorney general Josh Ship hero, the Democratic nominee, and a pretty strong favorite at this point. In his two races for attorney general in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, he outran both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden by about three and a half points. He’s currently leading Mastriano by about ten points in the real clear politics average. There’s also a tightening senate race that could end up as one of the closest in the country and could very well determine control of the senate.

Today, we’re gonna hear what our last couple of groups of Pennsylvania swing voters think about these races. My guest this week is Holly Euterbein, national political reporter for political. She is one of my favorite people to discuss Pennsylvania with. Holly. Thanks for being here.

So great to be here again. Sorry for the long wind up. But there’s so much going on in Pennsylvania. Do you just feel like you’re at the center of it all right now? I mean, I always am.

It’s it’s the Keystone State.

Where are you right now? What part of the state are you in?

I’m in Philly. That’s where I live.

Yeah. Okay. So first of all,

I know you watched the group. What do you think? Any big takeaways? You know, it was really interesting from start to finish. I mean, I think the one thing if I had to name one is just that not a single Trump to Biden swing voter is voting from Astriano in either one of your two groups that I was able to watch.

She did one in September and one in August and there was Mary a taker from Estriano. I mean, that that is pretty striking, including some people who when you guys asked if it was Trump versus Biden again. Some of those folks said they would vote for Trump. Even those people said, nope, Mastriano is too much for them.

Yeah. It’s funny. When I go home to Pennsylvania, I do see some Mastriano signs. They are often coupled with the Confederate flag. Like, that’s a a thing that I’ve seen where it’s, like, a half massriano, half confederate flag.

Yeah. I’ve seen that. I actually grew up, like, few miles above the Maryland border. So Confederate flags were, like, a staple in my town. I’ve seen the Mastriano, like, Confederate flag thing.

You are totally right about the fact that we have yet to find a swing voter who is willing to cop to voting for Mastriano. But obviously some people are gonna vote for Mastriano. I mean, he is polling well behind Shapiro, but it’s not like he’s at twelve percent or twenty percent So there are clearly people who are fine to vote for him just because he’s a Republican. Right? Yeah, absolutely.

I mean, I think you know, what is he

pulling kind of in, like, the high thirties, I think, most of the time — Yeah. — recently. I mean, Shapiro is up by double digits. But you’re right. I mean, yeah, he’s not he’s not pulling at ten percent that would be incredibly strange in a state like Pennsylvania.

Look, we’re like an evenly divided state. I mean, I I don’t know what you would even have to do to pull that low in Pennsylvania. But yeah. I mean, he has a lot of die hard fans. He won the primary, you know, by a pretty healthy margin.

The majority of Republican elected officials in the state has gotten behind him. You know, there are some exceptions here and there, but by and large, at least the state party is behind him if not, you know, the national folks. And so, yeah, he does have supporters. When you talk to him, a lot of them, you know, bring up, you know, what he did when we were dealing with the pandemic and he was very opposed to COVID restrictions. They bring up the fact that Many of them got to know him through his social media.

He’s a prolific Facebook user. This is actually part of what enabled him to win in the primary, and it was pretty amazing given that just like now he basically had no money in the primary either and wasn’t running anything close to a traditional campaign. In terms of running TV ads and having a traditional get up to vote operation and everything like that, and and he still managed to make a work, I think, in large part, because of social media. So those are the kinds of things that I hear from people who support him. And, yeah, and then they’re, of course, to some who, you know, they just want to vote for a Republican.

Yeah. Okay. Well, we’re gonna talk more about that in just a second, but I do wanna do something at the top here. I wanna play some sound from the start of the group. So at the start of every focus group, we do.

We ask people how they think things are going in the country. And I I don’t often play it because people go on and on. And they also it’s pretty repetitive, but I thought this one was a little bit interesting. So let’s listen.

The whole row versus weight being overturned. That was really upsetting to me because a lot of people feel like, oh, it’s about killing babies. It’s about doing this. It’s not. It’s about women having the right to choose because you’re basically saying that a baby has more more power than the mother does.

So regardless of whether or not I think that abortion is right or wrong, I feel like some of the directions are going is definitely not right. And I think it’s really important that people be allowed to choose for themselves. And I think it’s a huge step backwards in women’s rights. Because it’s giving the government more control over our bodies. You know, it’s one thing to say, hey, we’re not okay with abortions.

And another for women to be, you know, scared of telling their doctors when they had their last period because, you know, they don’t want there to be any stuff like I think I heard one person. There are a few people saying that, like, even if you have a miscarriage, you could be a jail court because they’d consider it, you know, like an abortion. And I just don’t think that’s right. I

believe women should have the right to choose if they want an abortion or just the way, you know, their bodies are. That kinda surprised me, but I also was kinda upset about what president Biden did recently. He or gave all the loans. And I really scrimped and I saved and I sacrificed my my home, my car. I drove a crappy car for years, and I paid my and I paid thousands of dollars from my loans and, you know, it’s I’m really angry about that.

You know, I’m fifty seven. I come from a family that’s very die hard Republican, and it doesn’t matter who’s elected or, you know, like a buffoon, like Ted Cruz, is speaking, or, you know, Donald Trump, or memorized, it’s just very discouraging. And I live right in the suburbs. I work in center city. It’s a very precarious time, and it’s not just for us in Philadelphia.

Although Philadelphia is, in my opinion, a very good example of how you know, everybody’s gonna blame it on the Democratic Party and Casner. And, you know, I think Casner’s horrible. I think leadership in Philadelphia is is horrendous, but it’s just a very sad time.

Alright. So there’s a lot of general unease with how things are going in the country. There’s a bunch of things to drill down on in there. The the swing voters tend to be the ones who are the most annoyed about Biden’s student loan forgiveness. Like, even Trump voters often aren’t as mad about it as the swing voters.

Yeah. But what was interesting to me and and people who listen to this podcast regularly know there’s this dynamic I’ve been kinda harping on which is that abortion is obviously this major issue. But when you ask the top question of, like, you know, what are you worried about? How how are things going in the country? It’s always about inflation, crime, the economy, jobs.

Very rarely does abortion come up. But it did come up here. With a couple of people at the top. And I wondered if you think that the reason that it came up at the top is that Doug Mastriano is so extreme on abortion. He is the most extreme person running.

I’m pretty sure maybe Hershel Walker is the other one who is no exceptions for rape incest and the life of the mother. Is that maybe why it’s popping more in Pennsylvania? How have you seen abortion kind of shaping these races?

Yeah. I

mean, I’ve been surprised both watching these focus groups talking to voters that abortion has been as big of an issue as it is, I mean, I knew, of course, it was going to factor in, but just given where the economy is, I questioned exactly how it would shake out. And and so that stuck out to me too that people brought it up right at the top when you asked them, you know, how the country was. I think there’s a couple things going on. I think it is because Mastriano is so far right on abortion. In your focus group, people were really freaked out about his no exceptions.

Stuff and, you know, even people who consider themselves pro life were freaked out about that. Right? So I think that that kind of shows just like how conservative he is seen on that issue. And then the other thing that’s going on in PA is that whoever is elected governor will determine abortion policy in a way that’s not necessarily true in other states. And by that, I mean that If Joshua Bureaus is governor, he will veto abortion restrictions.

The the legislature is now controlled by Republicans, and that’s not truly expected to change. By any serious analyst. Whereas if Doug Mastriano becomes governor, of course, he will sign abortion restrictions into law. And so there’s few races like that where, like, one race will determine the legality of abortion in Pennsylvania essentially. And so I think that’s maybe also what’s going on.

At the same time, when we have to bring up the fact that Mastriano until the day or two ago had not run a single TV ad in this race. And so those voters that you guys are talking to are just getting bombarded with negative ads about Mastriado, and nobody was challenging it. Like, he just seated the airwaves. To Shapiro. And so maybe if you had Mastriano fighting back on TV in any kind of traditional sense, saying, you know, Shapiro is bad on the economy, and he’s gonna, you know, govern like Biden and not help with inflation, then maybe it wouldn’t have popped the way

that it did. Howard Bauchner: Yeah,

that’s an interesting point. It’s almost like a perfect political science experiment. It’s like, what if one candidate literally doesn’t run ads. And the other guy totally gets to define him how do voters receive that? And I think listening to these voters, that is one of the things that strikes me is how well defined Mastriano is.

In fact, I just on this abortion piece, Let’s listen to how these voters, how clear they understood Mastriano’s position on abortion.

Mastriano scares the crap out of me. It’s

terrifying. He he terrifies me. He terrifies me.

Yeah. I have

a friend who lost two babies and if he gets in office, what he wants to do is she would have had to carry those babies to term

and stop her through it. That’s ridiculous. Should

he be elected, Pennsylvania would be in a dire dire situation. I think

that

you have women’s rights. But let alone, you give him a platform. I think that he’s just going to turn into some kind of a dictator of that is just it’s a scary thought to see what will be found in Pennsylvania. The

abortion thing just kills it for me. You know, don’t tell me what I can I can do. You know? Like, you don’t know my situation if that was the case. You know who you would judge me out, you know, Yeah.

But we had one nice day and it got pregnant. You know? Like, I have a fourteen year old daughter, and I’m not childbearing ages anymore. So, you know, if something were to happen to her. How do we both survive that?

But, you know, would she even know if she’s six weeks that she is pregnant? So, you know, don’t make a choice for her when she has her whole future ahead of her. I’ve

been a reputposing for forty five years. We don’t like to govern it up in our business. So reverse reverse lead. Don’t be a astronaut though and say, you know, once again, abortion. That’s about controlling.

It’s about controlling women. Don’t say the the election was faith that it was fraudulent. When it’s been pardoned, over, over, and over, there was no fraud.

He doesn’t even want any he he says none none of the accepts. Not even a mother’s life or

risk. Yeah. And

he’s not he’s not even, like, the least, but glib, but they’re both in his explanation. It’s just, like, not in your body, not your choice. You know, I don’t think abortion is healthcare, but this guy is so far to the right. He scares me. To act A

lot of them call him names. A lot of them say whack job, nuts, crazy, why does everybody know so clearly? Are the ads they all say this in the groups? The ads are just relentless. But as Josh Shapiro spent a lot of

time on that issue, Absolutely. I mean, Josh Shapiro the last time I checked, had spent twenty five million dollars on TV, and Mastron had spent zero. I mean, It’s funny that you brought up earlier that this is like a perfect, you know, scientific experiment to see what it’s like when one candidate runs a campaign and the other functionally doesn’t. I’ve said the same thing because I’ve never seen anything like this before in covering Pennsylvania campaigns. This is a statewide nominee.

The party nominee. And he just started running TV ads, and he’s not even airing it in Philadelphia, and he only says he has a million dollars behind it, which is basically nothing if that is supposed to be from now until the end of the election. And, hey, we’ve got to give, you know, Spheres Camping credit here. I mean, clearly, they are doing a good job defining him. A lot of these ads have Mastriano speaking in his own words.

He said, I give no way for exceptions at a debate. And the GOP primary. Right? That has been just aired over and over again, clips of him on right wing media talking about abortion, global warming, etcetera, are also in all of these ads, you know, in his words. So I think that is probably also, you know, why it’s kind of seared into people’s minds is they’re not being asked to look this up later or to take the ad’s word for it.

Like, it’s just massriano speaking.

Yeah. You know, one of the things that interests me a lot. Like, how would it massriano happen? Did nobody from I I don’t wanna call it the establishment because it’s not even a real thing anymore. But, like, why wasn’t there more of an effort to knock this guy out and get somebody

else. It’s just like handing over a a governorship in a very important state. Yeah. Well, I mean, in this case, there is an establishment in Pennsylvania, GOP establishment, and they did try to stop Mastriano, and it did not work. I mean, they they really did try.

They were concerned about him the entire time. I think where they failed was waiting too long. You know, they really waited. I think it was like a couple weeks before the election when they realized, oh, crap, Mastriano is gonna win. There were a number of candidates, like, a ton of gubernatorial candidates that had name ID that had money, some self funded, and they just divided the field.

And they tried to coalesce too late. And then even when you got some of the party bigwigs to say, okay, we’ve got to get behind one person they refused to do it. You know, these guys had already put in the time, the money, and they said, no, we’re gonna play till the end. And only a few very low polling candidates dropped out and got behind the guy who was number two in the polls, Lou Barletta. And then, you know, Trump came in at the very end of, you know, when they were trying to do this and said basically, f u, I’m gonna endorse Mastriano.

I mean, I presume because he wanted to improve his, you know, win record, essentially, in the primaries. And so, yeah, that was the end

of that. Yeah,

splitting the field of normies and getting a crazy person. I feel like I’ve seen that dynamic play out before in the Republican party. Feels familiar. So abortion was the key issue there, but Mastriano isn’t doing any better when people talk about his just like overall vibe. I mean, these voters, they had so much to say about Mastriano.

I

I don’t wanna come across as difficult. I don’t know Mastriano at all, but if if he’s anything like what his political ads are like, I just want no part of it. It’s just it’s way so strong. It it’s way so divided. He seems like extremely thick headed, and he doesn’t seem like a leader.

He seems like he he just out to to have some chaos and to really do some damage. And so, yes, it would be Josh Shapiro.

I just

think

he just is very arrogant. And and I think I don’t know. My mother tells me this. I don’t know if this is a true story or not, but he, like, drafted a bus from Pennsylvania to January sixth. And not really, like, against January sixth, then I just think that’s terrible that a governmental candidate would do something like that.

The

masteriano thing. I don’t I don’t understand where this where this state is coming from or the country is coming from it. He’s just so polarizing it’s more of the same. It’s kind of like a marjory tailored green in a way. Like, they this is, like, they’re fifteen minutes of fame if you will.

Like, I don’t know why we need to go, like, go so ugly to maybe get back to, like, neutral ground. But there’s there’s no reason to have a masteriano in all leading us. There’s better there are better people out there from what I see I don’t know that Josh Shapiro is the right answer, but it’s certainly not my story on now.

All the profite

is just what he did during COVID. He was just, you know, whether you believe in vaccines or not, masks or not, he was just he was just so extreme about you know, our rights are being taken away and our freedoms and blah blah blah. But aside from that, just watching his social media posts every time there’d be a little bit heat on him, he would start posting all this positive stuff. And it was positive.

But I

just feel that he plays games with all of our lives too. I’m not okay with that. You know, if he wants to do that on his own time, obviously go for it, but everything that he’s been presenting and then, you know, he tries to deflect the bat off and it’s just a game. You know, this whole thing is just a game to

him. It drives

me up a wall that the Democrats have put so much money into these far right, you know, republican and advocates to get them over the top.

So there’s a piece of this story where Josh Peyro did spend some money toward the end of his campaign to boost Mastriano. Sure. Now one of the funniest parts of this group to me was when the moderator was trying to get people to tell her who they voted for in the primary and, like, none of them knew. Like, they couldn’t remember, you know, it’s, like, this split field, like, some of them knew they’d done Blue Barletta, but, like, everybody else is, like, I just don’t know. Like, I know it wasn’t Mastriano.

But the Shapiro, I I I am very unhappy with Democrats who are doing this. I think it’s a really dangerous game to play. Do you think though that Shapiro do the people feel good now that he’s up by, you know, twelve points? Do you think they regret putting that million bucks in at all? Or do you think they feel pretty good about it?

There was some

grumbling when the polls were closer when the primary first ended and before Shapero clobbered Mastriana with millions of negative ads that Democrats were definitely they were grumbling that Shapiro had done this. And they were nervous about it. Now that he’s up, you don’t hear it as much. Like, I feel like as long as he wins, it’s not really gonna, you know, turn ish him. If he loses his race, like, his his career is over anyway.

Career is over. But there’s a lot of these governors candidates that don’t

have that much money. Like, there’s haven’t raised that much, but they’ve got these big outside groups that are coming in and supporting them. Right. And so, like, the RGA is spending big time for Cary Lake, who is a similar a similar profile in the sense that she’s an election denier. She’s conspiracy theorist.

She’s an anti Baxter. She’s extremist. But the RGA, who’s led by Doug Ducey, who endorsed her primary opponent, aggressively. Yeah. He’s still in there for her, but they have taken a pass on Doug Mastriano.

What do you think it is about Mastriano? They think he can’t win or what is

it? Yeah. I’ve asked that question. And I’ve been told that, like, basically, Republican donors don’t take him serious. They don’t think that he is running, and they’re right, anything resembling a normal campaign.

And I don’t mean, you know, he’s trying new things on social media. Thing. Like, he doesn’t even speak to the press, that he doesn’t have staff that speaks to the press, who doesn’t really have much of a staff. So, you know, you’re like, throwing good money after that when you’re doing that is is the kind of the perception of these donors. The thing that’s always stumped me is, okay, Mastiano has a bad relationship with like the RGA, despite the fact that by the way, he he did go to an RGA donor retreat months ago after the primary to try to.

Win some folks over that obviously didn’t work. But but nonetheless, he’s got he’s got about relationships with, like, those establishment folks. Traditional donors. But why hasn’t he, you know, raised money from small dollar donors? Right?

It’s not, like, fervant base. And when I’ve asked folks that question, you know, they tell me, yeah, but, like, managing a small dollar of fundraising operations still requires having staff that know what they’re doing, you know, obviously, requires buying email lists, that sort of thing. And the perception at least from Republicans on the outside watching this campaign is he doesn’t have any of that

stuff. That’s interesting.

And and makes a lot of sense. I’ve actually I’ve wondered the same thing. Like, he’s such a big deal on Facebook. I mean, geez, set up Patreon or something. I mean, I don’t know.

Is it that hard? But I guess, there are, like, FEC compliance things you have to do. And without lawyers and staffs and people to manage an email list, Chris goes to show when a Rinky Dink campaign he’s running, the contrast between the campaign Shapiro is running, you’ve got literally maybe the worst campaigner in the cycle or that any of us have seen in a really long time up against very much one of the most well positioned. I mean, just raises a ton of money. You know, he was the attorney general in the state, so he’s got a statewide profile.

He’s he’s quite liberal. I follow him on Twitter. He seems pretty progressive, but there’s a couple key ways in which I think he’s distinguished himself on on more centrist type issues. I think he’s for sort of school choice. And these voters are interesting, so they were all gonna go Shapiro.

Nobody was gonna vote for Mastriano. A lot of times when you have that in these Republican groups, so there’s people who are like gonna go at their party or leave things blank or whatever. That’s not the case with Shapiro. Like, they’re gonna vote for Shapiro. So let’s listen to some of these voters talk about why.

You know, I

look at Master John. I think he’s just too he’s just too extreme and and everything. If if you just moderate some of his positions, you know, I think he’d be in a much better position. But he’s he’s just way too extreme and it’s just he’s just so off putting. So, like, like, for me, it’s, like, I

mean, I I look

at your period. I’m like, alright. If he’s governor, I don’t I don’t think he’s gonna do a good job, but I don’t think he’s gonna do a, you know, terrible job. He’s probably just gonna be boring, neutral, guy, you know. So it’s like, I’ll I’ll stick with that and and and hope that four years from now, there’s a better option on the other side.

He’s

obviously a decent man. Life

Biden.

Biden is a decent man. And he has governed, so he he has experience as a public servant. At least he’s decent and he’s certainly the lesser of two evils.

But,

like, can’t

we get

better candidate? I

don’t know

how he’s gonna be as governor, but at least he’s not a dumb guy.

He seems level headed. He seems bright. But I honestly I would not have I would not have picked him if there was the better option. So

that was

the first of the two buckets that I have for Shapiro. But they’re only voting for him because he’s not Mastriano. You know, they say, like, oh, he’s a decent man. Like, the same way that Biden’s a decent man. Like, It’s the same thing.

These are people who voted for Biden because they couldn’t stomach voting for Trump, and that’s how they talk about massriano. But there’s a second bucket of supporters I would say this is a much bigger group who find Shapiro to be better than acceptable. So let’s

listen. I

always like Josh Shapiro. I thought that he would make a good governor. When he announced his candidacy, I knew that he would make a good candidate because he’s helped a lot of people But, like I mean, I’ve had problems, like, with something that he helped with. I had a contractor do something to me, and Joshua Peer was instrument on helping me get back my money. So, I mean, it’s not just that, but I feel like he’s a man of his

word. In

the last two or three years, you know, I I paid attention and read a lot about

his work

against the corrupt catholic priests and not just priests. I’m sorry. I’m not catholic. Put the clergy how hard he fought, you know, all the victims. So he used to speak on the Parkway when I worked in Center City, and I just I was intrigued because he is a good speaker.

He chose

the law position of prosecuting.

So

it’s like when district attorneys become judges,

they’re usually

a little tougher than judges that weren’t district attorneys, you know, it’s a choice. You you choose what kind of law you practice. And then if you choose to be a district

attorney, and

we know the guy’s record. I

mean, he

went after the contractor. He goes to after people who choose to be unscrupulous and on ethics and on law law enforcement. Piece of law abiding guide that

constitutes

people who don’t abide by law. Mastrian

is absolutely dangerous, but I’m built in for Shapiro based on his track record of going after the priest that molested children and adults. And he also went after, like, the whole UPMC AHN

debacle, which most states have Until I moved here and I tried to explain to my relatives across the country, I said I’ve never lived in my life in such a chaotic healthcare existence, meaning two companies just pissing on each other wasting money and then basically pissing on all of us as the population as they each kept getting wealthier and wealthier. So I feel at least he stepped in to try to wrangle that in. Is it perfect? No. Is it I just felt like he had balls and ammunition to take on things in a rational way, a legal way, and curtail problems at hand.

So affirmative support for Josh Appear. It’s like his record is AG. People seem to know it. And they seem to have been aware of it maybe even without the ads, like, before that. So what’s your impression of the way people think about Shapiro in the state?

Like, this is so unusual for people to know this much and have this kind of impression of a candidate. Howard

Bauchner: Yeah, I mean, a number of his ads have touched on these topics, but I think you’re right. I mean, he picked some of these things that got a lot of press coverage. Right? I mean, when he went after the Catholic church for the sex abuse scandal, you know, that got a ton of press coverage and that stuck in people’s minds. I think that a few things I noticed from the focus group that I thought was interesting, A number of, not all, but a number of the the folks that were, like, strong Shapiro supporters, not just voting against Mastriano.

We’re from the Philadelphia area, and Shapero is from the Philadelphia area, and

that’s,

you know, where he he started as a state legislator and then as a county commissioner. And so I’m sure a lot of these people have heard even more than other folks around the state kind of what he’s been up to. Right? You know, you might end up seeing, like, even stronger maybe sort of renders style turnout for Shapiro in the Philly suburbs just, you know, given what we know and the focus groups And then, you know, the other thing, Shapiro has really, like, branded himself as this guy who goes after, like, big bad institutions on behalf of the normal people. So, like, the Catholic church, the healthcare giant, the one of the focus group people mentioned the contractor, like, he’s pitched himself as that person and that branding is really stuck with people.

And I also think just being a law enforcement official is probably helping with these Republican voters. Yeah.

And he’s getting the the police groups are endorsing him even as they they’re endorsing Oz on the other side. And you’re right, that UPMC, the the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, that’s come up in other focus groups, like, as far back as May, where you had Republicans who were that woman was from the Pittsburgh area, was considering voting for a bureau, like, strictly on that. So he’s clearly had some big wins. And I guess, I I have two thoughts that I wanna ask you about. So one is we’re about to turn to Federman and talk about how the soft on crime ads, like, are really having an impact on him.

Yeah. But it’s interesting how Josh Shapiro is managing to, like, be the law and order guy. Even though you heard up at the top, like crime really is coming up in these focus groups a lot, and there was that woman who was talking about the mayor of Philly and things being bad in Philly and lots of people talking about the the crime in the cities. But Joshua is not getting any of that. He’s got the opposite.

Right? He’s able to sort of brand himself is the law and order guy. What actually leads me to my second point, which is So let’s say this guy just like demolishes master auto, and he does it. And let’s say, I don’t know, that either it’s close with odds or odds wins. If you win really decisively in a state like Pennsylvania, like, don’t you automatically get on the shortlist for, like, national ambitions, president, future, or the Democratic

party, etcetera? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, any Democrat that wins in a battleground state this year, I think, is going to get that kind of attention. Whether it’s Shapiro or Federman or, you know, Warrnock. Like, I think that we are going to see all of those people catapulted into, you know, potential presidential chatter.

On, you know, your first points, I think there’s a couple things going on. One, Shapiro is doing the right things. To prevent him from being cast as soft on crime. Right? I mean, for one thing, he’s simply the attorney general.

For another, he’s done things throughout his career. You know, for instance, kind of picking little fights with Larry Krasner, which pissed off progressives. But, you know, have prevented him from being kind of pigeon hold in that same sort of category as krasner. Right? Mhmm.

He’s made allies with police unions and and is getting their endorsements now. So he’s doing all of those things. He’s a very happy politician. But at the same time, there’s no pushback from Mastriano. And can see in Mastriano’s tweets kind of the outline of what a campaign might have been where he says Shapiro is the AG.

And so all of this crime that’s happening in Philadelphia. And look, I live in Philly so I can tell you, like, it is a problem here, the crime. The homicides are going up in a real way.

You know,

he’s saying Shapiro should be blamed for some of that. But we’re not hearing that on TV. Mhmm. So Shapiro’s doing the right things. But he also doesn’t have a traditional opponent to push back on them.

That’s true. Okay. We’ll talk briefly about the senate race between John Federman and Dr. Oz. The last time you and I talked, it was during the primaries.

And I assume this is what we talked about because it is the thing I I know we were hearing at the time, is I was very almost caught off guard by how pro Federman the democrats were. And that I suspected that even among Trump voters, there would be, you know, some some real support. I can’t remember if he’d had the stroke at

that point. But I think he hadn’t. He had not. No. He had the stroke, like, a few days — Right.

— primary. Yeah.

And so just as a as a setup matter, what’s happening right now in the senate race is it is becoming one of the most watched races, one of the most important races of the cycle. And it’s interesting because I think for a while, you know, OZ’s negatives were so high, and and people really like Fatternman. His his authenticity campaign seem to really be landing with voters. But then he had the stroke after, like, the brutal primary that they had on the Republican side as seems to have returned from wherever he was summer when everyone’s talking about how he’s barely present. And now seems to be running a pretty decent campaign, and they are just burying.

Federman in ads for his position on crime. Like McConnell, the senate leadership fund, they’re just hammering him. And Federman’s kinda hanging on to a four point lead, but there were polls back in August that were like almost double digits. And I just want let’s just play this one SLF ad just to give you a taste of of what Federman’s being pounded with. John

Federman’s proud of releasing a record number of felons early, bringing more thugs serving life sentences than in the previous twenty five years combined. He’s even pushing to end life sentences for felony murder. The first way

I believe to change it and that is eliminating the felony murder law, eliminating the felony murder law. And releasing dangerous murderers early That’s crazy, but that’s far left, John Federman.

Senator Leerstrom Fund is responsible for the content of this

effort. Alright.

What do you think? Having an impact landing? Yeah. Definitely. You know, I mean, when Oz got out of as you put in a very brutal primary where he himself was hit with millions of dollars of ads, you know, calling him insufficiently conservative in any number of things.

He had a real problem on his hands. His negative is super high. Federman didn’t have high negatives at all. He was really well liked. And so, you know, that he was faced with the decision, like, either he could rehabilitate himself or try to drag down federal men, and and he and, you know, Republicans were large, super packs, etcetera.

Decided

to

do the latter and they’re doing it with crime. And I think we gotta give her some credit, Sarah, during the primary talk we actually, I think both said, like, we thought that crime is probably Federman’s biggest vulnerability because, you know, some of these ads are definitely misleading, but it’s also true that on the board of pardons, like Federman, you know, he did really take an aggressive, progressive stance. In terms of policy. And so they have been hitting him on this in in this advertising. And we have seen his negatives creep up It is having an impact and we have seen Oz numbers go up a little bit and some of the Republican voters who were not too hot on Oz because they didn’t think he was really one of them, you know, are coming back home to him, I think because of these crime ads.

Now at the same time, Federman has still led in every single poll. The polls narrowed, but Oz is still not let it in one of them. And, you know,

Republicans that

I talked to are still saying, like, privately, you know, if they’re not sure if he will have enough time to really catch up to Federman. You know, we’re just we’re down to the

wire here. Right? Interesting. Well, let’s listen to how these ads have been resonating with voters.

Federman, I think,

is absolutely terrible. I think he’s absolutely soft on crime. But when I see he is releasing criminals out onto the street, If you look at his Pearl voting record, there are a lot of four to one parole votes where he was that one vote. Thank god. You know, there are at least some same members of Pearl Board.

Otherwise, we have way more criminals out on the street. I know he was mayor braddock. Being a mayor of the small town is literally a small part time job. Let’s be clear. Say he’s a mayor braddock.

You’re a mayor of a town like a thousand people. That’s literally a part time job. It’s like your local auto mechanic is the mayor of that town. It’s literally a a part time job you do a few hours a week. Okay?

That man’s never had a real job. He’s been supported financially by his parents up into his forties. He bought his house from his sister for one dollar. Okay? This guy is absolutely unqualified to do this.

Working in

corrections. I see the jail system. You know, letting me spell them down from her. Their goal

was

to empty

the jails. We were a nine thousand population mark down to forty four hundred. The crime is just up in Philly. People are getting out and committing a crime. They’re getting out on, like, low bail fees.

I just can’t let the felons go with convicted murders. I just can’t do it. I mean, streets are so full of violence. Now. But, you know, I’m not happy with us.

I don’t want another cheating publicity. You know? In our office. But I think he’s doing it to work his way into government. This is just his foot in the door.

He just wants to get in. But, I mean, you know, yes, he is a smart man, but better man with the felons. I just can’t do it, not working in corrections, what I see. I just can’t do it. Alright.

So

sometimes there’s this funny thing that happens in focus group in, like, the choosing of the people. Which is sometimes we get repeat — Yep. — people. Because we’re asking for a very specific set of people to recruit people who voted for Trump in sixteen and and Biden, but they voted in a Republican primary. So sometimes you get these people who are repeating, and and we have one of those guys.

The last group that he was in We had asked the same questions. On on the Senate between Federman and Oz, he was gonna leave it blank because he thought Oz was just doing it to get famous and, you know, he didn’t like it

at all.

Now, he was firmly going on. He had moved into that category, and I think that’s a pretty good example of how these ads have, like, moved some people. And — Absolutely. — this guy, like, he’s a Republican. I think he’s a really good example of somebody kind of coming home.

And and can you tell me because I think some things have happened for us too that are interesting in the state like Tom Ridgeendorf, he’s getting the endorsements from these police groups. So, like, I know he hasn’t led any polls like you said, but is it possible he’s got, like, the momentum? Yeah.

He does have the momentum in terms of the polls are moving in in the direction of Republicans right now. Right? Like, that’s not a terrible place to be. I think you’re right. That guy was, like, the perfect illustration of the GOP coming home to us and, like, partly because of these crime ads, which shows you, you know, at least partially, like who these crime ads are aimed at.

I think they are also aimed at suburban voters. But but I think that they were also intended to bring the GOP based home for us. And interestingly, if I remember correctly, that guy was a Kathy Barnett voter in the primary. Kathy Barnett was the far right candidate in the senate primary. She was very anti establishment and just sort of seen as, like, more on the fringe, more attracting people who maybe necessarily, like, we’re gonna do things like leave their ballot blank.

And she still actually hasn’t endorsed us, but he is coming home. Right? So, like, the Barnett voters are coming home. That’s a very good thing for us. But at the same time, Oz needs to win those independence and was talking to a Democratic pollster who told me that know, Democratic internals are still showing Federman ahead and have been even, you know, after the crime ads, he’s steadily been ahead with independence.

Despite despite these attack ads. Have you,

like, seen

Federman up close lately? Like, what how does he look like because there’s this debate coming up. Yeah. And they’re like fighting over it because Betterman wants there to be closed captioning, so you can also read them because it sounds like he’s processing things slower than he used to after the stroke. And Oz is saying, well, if you get close captioning, it’s gotta be ninety minutes.

And Oz is pretty good on his feet. One of the things I noticed watching the Republican primary debate is he is no slouch on a state. He’s very comfortable in front of a camera. And the health stuff comes up a lot from these voters. So I know that we’re still soft with independents, but can Federman closed?

Can he get out there? Can he be in front of people? What have you seen? Yeah.

We haven’t

talked about his health

until now. You

know, most strategists that I talked to think that, like, the narrowing of the polls has been the crime stuff as opposed to really the health stuff. But it’s also hard to get a handle on it because I think that maybe some people don’t want to be so explicit, like, about saying, you know, yes his health is a concern to me, and I don’t wanna vote for him.

Totally. There

was a lady in one of those focus groups who, like, was saying that she had, like, some concerns about his abilities, but then like, when she was pressed, like, was it about the stroke? She said, no. And it was just, like, well, then, what are you talking about? You know? And I wondered if she was just, like, uncomfortable saying it, and I kinda wanted the same thing about some polling.

We have seen though in polling that more people are saying that his health is a concern. This hasn’t really been the subject of ads, but it has been like an earned media strategy that the OZ campaign has tried to do in terms of pushing that there should be more debates and that Federman should release his medical records, that he’s not being transparent, that he’s sicker than he lets on, and so that has been getting press coverage. I

have

seen him on the trail, and then I’ve also done a interview with him, which was a few weeks ago. What is it called Google Meet? Like, the video chat that Google does? Yep. And, like, I found him to be much better than he was at his first rally that he held in Erie, where he, you know, he did have moments where he’s pausing awkwardly and he like, messing up words and stuff.

In the one on one shot, like, I think you maybe missed, like, a word or two, but it was, like, it was pretty solid. Think he’s always been better in the one on one stuff. Like, I because I’ve known him for years now. But that was always the case with him. Like, he’s just not that great of a speech maker.

He was never a good debater. Like, if you watch the, like, primary debates, he bombed, honestly. And so, like, I think that maybe that’s a little bit of what’s going on, like, why he was better in that environment versus, like, the rally and hearing. But

then also, you know, when you talk to doctors, they’ll tell you like you can make pretty significant improvements as like time moves on after your stroke.

I do think that the debate, it’s there’s gonna be one debate between him and Oz at the end of October. I think it’s really high stakes for betterment. I think that he can’t have a giant flub. I think that maybe he can have, like, miss a word here or there. But, you know, he can’t have something that Republicans can clip and put

into an ad and and replay in social media and and make it look bad. You know, that’s that’s the stakes for betterment. He has increased the number of interviews that

he’s done recently in events. I’ve noticed he’s picked up the pace a little bit. He did an interview with Joy Reed and then with KDKA, a local station out here, and, like, even just looking at those two interviews that that I think took place at at roughly the same time. They were both pretty different, like in the k d k a one. He seemed really solid for the most part.

And then the the read one, it was a little bit more stumbling over some some thoughts. And so we’ll

see how he does in the debate. I think it it will be high stakes for him. Okay.

I do wanna ask one thing. On this which is this revelation about Oz and the dogs. Yeah. There was a report

in Jezebel that Oz is medical research led to the killing of hundreds of dogs as well as some other animals and that there was a whistleblower who said that these dogs were mistreated. As as far as I understand was not personally involved in these experiments, but they were his team’s experiments. And I was just immediately reminded of, like, the Mitt Romney dog thing and, you know, how that sort of seared into people’s minds is, like, an image of of Mitt Romney as being just, like, out of touch weird. And and it came out, like, the same day that the Hershel Walker apportioned pollution came out. You know, I I was trying to it doesn’t denser a little bit, like, myth that that happened because, like, it kinda stole the spotlight from it.

Not to be too single minded, but I do think, like, again, it comes back to TV and and advertising, and are people gonna put money behind that, you know, then then it might make a difference. Yep.

Yep. Okay. So I hate to end on sort of a scary note for everybody. But everyone in this most recent focus group voted for Biden. But we’ve been seeing this trend in the flipper groups, in the sixteen Trump twenty Biden groups.

So back in the spring when we were doing these groups, usually you couldn’t find anybody who, like, regretted voting for Biden in twenty. They were all, like, nope. Still glad I did it. Could never vote for Trump. We are starting to hear not that anymore.

Like, we are starting to hear people who say, if it is Biden running against Trump again in twenty twenty four that there are a number of these swing voters who would go back to Trump. Let’s listen.

I hope to god we don’t have Trumpers Biden

in twenty twenty before. But if that happens, I’m probably gonna vote for Trump. Because I’ll take a lot of the crap that Trump does, but I know I’m gonna get a strong economy, you know, and I’m gonna get someone, you know, Lisa is passionate. I just

thought

the country was in a better place. It seemed like we’re scrutinized now. Like, everything like, I watched certain news and they said we’re gonna be, like, in trouble with our taxes. We’re gonna be in trouble with everything. And I just don’t like it.

Not when Trump was in office, it seem like we weren’t watched as much. I just feel like we’re being watched more. And I listen to news, I watch different news stations, I watch CNN, I watch Fox, two different different sources,

but they

come at you

and it’s kinda like one’s democratic, one’s republican, and it’s like I hear different things and I don’t like when I’m hearing on Fox. I just felt better when Trump was in office I have to vote for him. And my family is gonna be mad at me, but I don’t care. I wouldn’t

vote for Trump anymore. I think Trump got in office. I I just saw him as a businessman. I saw, you know, he was a fighter. No.

Like, he had strength. I don’t see strength on the bike, you know. He never see as the vice president. Where is where is she what the she do. You never even hear what she does.

I see Biden as a frail person, and Trump has the strength. He’s a fighter. I don’t like his arrogance. I don’t like deleting. My teaming closed pipeline.

Hell, like, the pipeline was a big

hurt for everybody.

Holly, if we end up

with a rematch, God forbid. But but

not necessarily

at all out of the realm of thoughts abilities, you know, Biden just recently again. There was a report he told Al Sharpton privately that, of course, he’s gonna run again. It’s what we all deserve. It’s what we all deserve. My god.

What what do you think? Do you feel like there’s a backsliding in Pennsylvania like a weird nostalgic. This is what I hear from the voters in the focus groups where they’re just like, I don’t really like Trump, but things were better when he was president. What do you think is going on?

Yeah. I I think there is a little bit of backsliding. I don’t know if, like, Trump would win it quite yet in Pennsylvania, but I feel like it’s moving in his direction. Look, it’s the economy. You’re like, it sucks.

It’s not great. Inflation is really hurting people. And Biden’s in charge, and I think it’s as simple as that. And if it worked for Roe v Wade being struck down, like, things would be a lot worse for Democrats. That’s taken, like, some of the heat off of them.

But at the end of the day, like, It’s hard to buy a car. It’s hard to buy a house. It’s hard to buy your groceries. And, you know, I think that people are looking back on that, like, hot economy that Trump had, and they are having a little bit of nostalgia. I think it’s so interesting though just listening to those people again, like, even though they would vote for Trump again.

It’s what we’re Trump Biden. None of these people are voting from Australia. I know. I I I mean,

these people are Trump Biden, Shapiro, Trump voters. And to be fair, it was only three of them who said that they would they would just vote for him if it was the head to head match up. Swing voters, man, there there’s something else. I I’ve one just very last question just since I’m just terrorizing people here at the end. Is there any scenario my colleague JBL had sort of floated this idea of, you know,

the thing

about Mastriano is you just don’t know these people who put him over the edge in the primary. You don’t know how many people — Yeah. — like, are out there who might not otherwise vote. Like, the reason that Trump shocked everybody. Right?

So he brought so many new people in, both in sixteen and in twenty. Just found a lot of new

voters.

Yeah. Any chance that there’s just like a, you know, lots of massriano voters out there that the polls aren’t picking up or something? Yeah. Yeah.

I I think there are actually, like, some of those people. I do. The question is just how many of them are there. To just, you know, like, one percent, and then that just changes Shapiro’s victory from whatever eleven percent to ten percent, or is it more than that? I I do worry about the polls being off.

You know, they weren’t great in twenty sixteen. They weren’t weren’t great in twenty twenty either. I’m concerned that they’re not picking up massriano voters because they are as, like, anti poll anti establishment as it gets, you know, even more than your average jump voter. Like, they are just really not about all of that. And so would they even respond to a request for, like, a script like yours.

I don’t know. I’m just concerned about that just from the perspective of doesn’t mean I don’t know what’s going on in the race. You do see a lot of signs out there for Mastiano in Trump country, and there is, like, some real grassroots energy for him. The reason that I still, you know, say that Shapiro is the favorite is because Mastriano is not running any semblance of a campaign. And Trump ran regular campaign in many ways.

Like, yes, he did lots of things differently, but he ran TV ads. He had, you know, ground operation in conjunction with the state party and all of that. And I just don’t see evidence that Mastriano has

that. Holly Otterbein

from Pennsylvania. Thank you so much for coming back on another episode of The Focus Group. It was great to have you here. I think we’re gonna do one more Pennsylvania focused group, like, right at the end, really hit the senate hard just to see where things land there. But thanks for being here and thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the Focus Group.

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