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Giving Permission (The Secret Podcast PREVIEW)

December 8, 2023
Notes
Transcript
Plus: Sarah has to save America. Again.

Listen to the full episode by becoming a Bulwark+ subscriber here: https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/giving-permission

This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:00

    Hey there. It’s JBL on the Secret Show with Sarah Longwell today. We talked about this week’s Republican debate and the enormous coordination problem that these stop Trump Movement, which isn’t actually even really a movement inside the Republican Party is having. Here’s the show.
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:22

    The moderators were terrible, and I was watching people comment about how good Megan Kelly was doing. Your buddy Eric Ericston was like Megan Kelly for all the debates, and I was like, did he cross want me just said that January six was an in job, and everyone was just like, moo moo. Interesting position.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:36

    It’s just his opinion, man. It’s
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:37

    just his opinion, man. It’s just one guy on the stage running for president. And You know, the fact, like, the fact that Chris Christie is up there dropping truthbumps. Oh, we’re all, like, yeah, go Christie, and then we realize Actually, Republican voters hate him. They’re booing him while he’s on stage.
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:54

    Like, and I’m watching people I love on Twitter being like, he, you know, Look at Christie. This is what leadership looks like, and I’m like, these guys we’re running him out of the party. His unfavorables are above sixty percent. In the party. Like, he has no place in it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:10

    And so I just the idea of, like, this party is so gone. So gone. And I mean, we know that intellectually, but, like, the fact that these are what’s left or what is there for I and I was you know, I you guys have heard me talk internally a lot or, like, on this show or whatever about how, like, I can’t sorta help but root for Nikki. And I really am rooting for Nikki. And I would do anything, to have Trump not be the nominee and have it be her.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:36

    That is, like, best case scenario. But still, I am just so disappointed in the quality and caliber of the people on the Republican ticket. They’re not good. And, I mean, boy is Ron DeSantis unpleasant. Every time I have to listen to him or watch him, he sucks.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:55

    I mean, I know that’s again, not a news flash, but these debates, I’m done.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:01

    I I have a question for you. This is gonna be this is me asking leading questions with my fantasy politics where people’s political party affiliation is not determined by, like, a microchip with a bomb in it that was implanted in their brain at birth. So in a world where where people identify their political party by an issue matrix and cultural matrix, which thing they are closer to. Would you say that Chris Christie is closer to Donald Trump or Josh Shapiro?
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:35

    Josh Shapiro.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:37

    Closer to Ron DeSantis or Wesmore?
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:39

    Ron DeSantis.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:43

    Really?
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:43

    I think so. I don’t know.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:47

    I don’t think so. I I
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:48

    think if you ask Chris Christie that question, he would definitely say Ron DeSantis.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:52

    I think he would say Ron DeSantis. I don’t think it’s true.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:55

    I think Russ Moore is more progressive than you think.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:59

    Maybe. Chris Christie is more pro I mean, Chris Christie was the New Jersey governor. Like, New Jersey’s a Yeah. A Lib State. He was a a liberal Republican.
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:07

    My point is that Chris Christie is functionally a conservative Democrat. He is much closer to being a conservative Democrat than he is to being a whatever the median Republican is.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:17

    No. And it’s insane. I think the with our political realignment that these formerly moderate governors, especially, I mean, this is why Chad Bush Nikki Haley taken down the confederate flag. Like, there was a whole crop of these guys, who I think, they instead of recognizing that who they were then now lines up better with being a conservative Democrat, have decided many of them to change who they are, including Chris Christie, up until pretty recently.
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:47

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:47

    And and can I just let’s just let’s
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:49

    just change? Why isn’t he a Democrat? Why doesn’t Chris critique why Why is it that there are
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:55

    Tribalism. This is who my TED Talk was about. It’s about the tribe, man.
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:58

    I remember that. But, like, during the Obama years, we had Zelle Miller who flipped. Right? Hell, during the Trump years, we’ve had a bunch of, like, you know, low level, like, the the state senator or rep down in North Carolina who flipped from d to r. What why is that?
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:15

    Why? What I don’t understand why there aren’t elected Republicans looking around saying, nope. I’m out. Because you know what? They could get votes in many cases from from Democrats.
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:31

    Like, this is I I just I don’t understand it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:34

    Yeah. I’m not I just I’m not gonna have this time to have the same fight again. So we don’t
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:39

    have to fight about it. I just need to yell at the wind.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:41

    Great. Can I say one last thing about the because I was arguing in favor of the debates, you know, I wanted those, like, Tim’s, like, refusing to watch it? I usually was surprised at how many people I saw not watch it where people are just, like, I don’t care.
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:53

    Yeah. I was not surprised by that. Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:56

    Well, I mean, just for me, I still I don’t know. There there are moments in our politics. I’m trying to, you know, as we muddle through where we’re going, I feel like we have to see what’s, you know, the undercard, the next generation, the people that have trump chokes on a hamburger become you know, maybe potentially leaders of the party.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:20

    It is illustrative of the state of the party.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:24

    I think.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:24

    Right? Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:25

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:25

    It doesn’t it’s not changing the dynamic, but if if you are, like, hey.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:28

    I don’t like the point. Yes. Yeah. It’s revealing the dynamic. And so
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:31

    it’s still interested. Look at another tapestry, which can provide you more details to your understanding?
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:41

    Well, especially because it’s it’s it’s in kind of a flux all the time. Right? It’s not a static state, and so it’s it’s it’s interesting to see these things. However, I did watch that debate and think, so Christie’s yelling at these other guys. And I, like, sort of correctly in an objective sense, that they’re not attacking Trump, they’re not willing to say it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:03

    But then I was like, what is the net effect of this debate? You know, there’s this Wall Street Journal poll that came out yesterday. And yesterday, the day before I can’t remember. And it had it was a national poll. It was, and it was the Wall Street Charles poll, and then it’s good pollsters.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:20

    Trump at fifty nine. And the headline, the headline was Nikki Haley moves into second place. So Trump’s at fifty nine, Nikki’s at fifteen Ron DeSantis is at fourteen. Oh. Now I’m not great at the maths.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:34

    Mhmm. But it doesn’t it’s not hard to know if you add Nikki and Ron together.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:38

    Mhmm. Fifteen and fourteen. You get almost half of fifty nine.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:42

    You get almost half of fifty nine. And so And if
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:48

    you add them together and then multiply it by two Right. You double it. Then you are only a little bit behind fifty nine.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:55

    That’s right.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:56

    It’s just
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:57

    it’s like within the margin of error at that point. But you’re rude. So so, like
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:01

    All we have to do is add together in multiple way too, Sarah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:04

    That’s right.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:05

    It’s so simple. And and let me get you one better. If we add them together and square their number, and they are They shoot way out to the lead.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:13

    Yeah. That’s good. How do you like that? I think
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:16

    that Pretty simple from here.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:17

    It’s straightforward from here. So my I guess my, my thought about the these debates where they are attacking each other. What does that do other than say to people? Oh, yeah. Nikki Haley’s not great on trans stuff.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:35

    Oh, yeah. Ron, you know, is kind of, like, when Christie was putting him in the hot seat on, like, is he fit or is he not fit? And Ron just, like, looked like he couldn’t answer the question, and it was, like, a bad moment from every all it is serving to do, actually, is say, like, in I I I’ve realized that there was, like, a little bit of a flaw in what I was arguing to Tim, which is I I it is still true. Like, yes, it is, like, somebody is going to be the singular alternative to Trump ultimately, and, like, That is gonna be a story and watching that unfold is important. But then on the other hand, These these debates, they’re just exercises in all of these people destroying each other while Trump gets stronger.
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:20

    Mhmm.
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:21

    In that pursuit of second place. And so they are actually not helpful, not useful.
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:29

    Do you remember back, in the early days of this coronation when there were a class of people who said either absolutely, Trump would wind up having to debate because he would just have to because No.
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:40

    That we knew was wrong. We never thought that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:42

    We didn’t say that. I’m just saying there were people out there, and then there was another class of people out there. Again, not not us, who were saying that, well, if if he doesn’t, it will really hurt him. And we we said from the get go, this is wrong. Of course, he won’t show up.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:02

    There’s no need for him to show up. He will do better by not showing up. Totally. Because he not there, they’ll be forced to defend him, not attack him. We were right.
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:13

    Well, yeah. I think part I’m saying about the the alternative dynamic with them is that, like, there there was necessary to have these under card debates because people needed the exposure to, like, have somebody emerge. But, like, they diminish in their utility as we go on because now they’re just tearing each other down. They know Trump’s not gonna be there. And, like, what was Chris Christie It’s not it it I mean, no, it is like twenty sixteen.
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:43

    Right? Great. Chris Christie, you’ve you’ve hurt Ron, and you’ve hurt Nikki. Great. What’s
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:48

    the alternative though? Well, again, I’ll devil’s advocate. So let’s pretend that Thanos style I snap my fingers, and everybody except for Nikki disappears. So we have our one on one race. In fact, we get our one on one race right now.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:02

    Yep.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:05

    What what would make that a real race? Like, I actually don’t think that makes any difference. Right? Like, how does she then shows up at a the next debate with an empty podium. And, like, she just talks.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:18

    Like, how
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:19

    No. So here’s okay. So this is how I think it would work. Let me play a little fantasy politics also, like, I kinda think this is how it would work. So Nikki’s the only alternative to Trump.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:28

    So trump gets a bump. So trump’s up around sixty five. But let’s say she’s cracking thirty, k, in a primary.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:38

    Okay.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:38

    Let’s say she’s cracking thirty. Let’s
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:40

    she could, in theory, get to thirty nationally.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:43

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:44

    She was just the two of them.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:45

    If it was just the two of them. Right? So let’s say that is my most optimistic case. She might not. Let’s I’m trying to pitch you the most optimistic case.
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:52

    So she cracks thirty, and she’s getting all the headlines. So one of the ways in which Right now, there’s, like, an embed with each of the campaigns. Right? But it’s hard right now for Nikki when she goes out and does a town hall or whatever. There are just maybe ninety people gone, you know, and you can’t, You keep like, she can’t do she’s not gonna show big momentum with that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:23

    If she’s the only person Right? And people kind of tune in. There’s there’s a ton of Republican primary voters who tune in. And also, let’s say she’s getting big crowds in New Hampshire. She’s pulling real close in New Hampshire.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:37

    Everybody’s interviewing her all of a sudden. She’s all over the place. She is both And there’s a there’s a bunch of people who are invested in not being not being publicly anti trump, but wanna elevate somebody who is or elevate an alternative And so there’s a bunch of incentives to to boost her prospects, get her all over TV chest. So, like, I just think
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:58

    But what’s her message?
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:01

    Well, so and this is well, this
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:02

    is the other thing. Like, what is her message to the the sixty percent to one?
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:06

    It’s you gotta gold watch the guy. He was a good president, but you cannot have these two old men. We need a new we need, you know, a new future. And I also think she can, say, like, she does say this now, and I think she can lean harder on this. It’s like, aren’t you tired of the chaos that both Trump and Biden bring?
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:22

    Don’t you want and, like, I don’t I, like, It a lot of it depends on how good she is at delivering that message. I think so far, you know, I have been More impressed with her. Although, I gotta say, as much as I’m pissed at Chris Christie, his raw political talents really high.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:41

    He’s just He
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:42

    is well, he’s a he he speaks clearly and with conviction, and I don’t immediately hate him when he’s talking.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:52

    More prosecutor than politician. Let me
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:55

    Yeah. Yep. Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:56

    I think that’s right. I don’t know that I mean, part of the problem here so, yes, you could try old, but I don’t think that that is something that Trump voters are gonna respond to. The chaos, I think they certainly won’t respond to because they like the chaos. Want the chaos, and what they want is more chaos.
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:18

    No. I think that’s right. I think that’s right.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:19

    Kitchen return to normal is, like, Like, you know what I’m saying? This is So, like, I don’t know what she Well, let
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:25

    me ask you one more thing.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:26

    Well, let
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:27

    me just throw one more thing into the mix on this potential scenario, which is One on one, trump starts to engage her. K? Trump like, in a way that he’s sort of not now. Now Let’s say in doing so, I don’t know. He, like I don’t know what the thing he could do that would but he will start to do things that
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:50

    will Say something racist?
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:51

    Well, as I know. This racist senses, horrible. And this
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:56

    is I know.
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:57

    I know. I know. I just there’s there’s there’s opportunities, like, to move to, like, I don’t know, find cracks in things.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:06

    Not if you don’t wanna risk I mean, if if she goes to one on one
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:11

    One on one. In any of thirties, I’m just saying people will take you more seriously than just, like, fifteen.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:16

    This year, but here’s what I’m saying is that I don’t I think at the one on one, in order to have even a small chance, You have to push all your chips to the center of the table and be willing to end this campaign as the end of your career within Republican politics. Yeah. Because if you think if you don’t burn the boats, if you think, great. I got to number two. But I do have to make sure I don’t end from this without everybody hating me, then you are not going to be able to attempt to take his voters from him.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:53

    Yeah. And that’s not right. No. She is gonna have to go hammer and tong at him.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:58

    And maybe it’s not in the way that we Right? Maybe it’s not in the No. The Chris Christie way, but but you have to be willing to to aggressively attack him in an attempt to take votes from him which may not be possible anyway. Right? Maybe it’s possible.
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:11

    Maybe it’s not. But I don’t think she has shown any willingness anywhere I’m good at it. Since honestly, the last time she showed a willingness to do that was when she endorsed Marco Rubio in the run up to the South Carolina primary in twenty sixteen. Yeah. Since then, she has never shown any willingness to jeopardize, like, the, you know, Nikki Haley future Nikki Haley.
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:35

    From being welcomed within Republican politics. And so if that’s gonna continue, I think it ultimately doesn’t matter.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:42

    Yeah. I do wonder though to, if she’s running directly again from, she might see a thing or two that changes how she thinks about the party. And her future in it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:53

    I don’t know. I just She’s seen all the same stuff we’ve seen. She knows
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:57

    the score. Here’s the thing. I am convinced. I am convinced that the I’d say I’d say this all the time. The Mike Pence running, Chris Christie running.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:06

    I mean, Chris Christie has sort of like a theory of the case. But I think these guys spend so much time at AEI conferences, and there’s a self selecting problem, like the people who come to see Nikki. Are these, like, moderate, suburban women and, you know, like, she doesn’t. She’s not living at Trump rallies. And I think they have a distorted view of the party.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:32

    And they genuinely don’t really understand what’s happening.
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:37

    Be nice if that got fixed. Listen. We’re starting to run short on time. I would like
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:41

    to talk about the Jmart. Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:42

    Jmart, please. So John the Martin has a piece in political today’s headlined, where are all the anti trump Republicans? And this is a Sarah Longwell special. I was wondering if he spoke with you for it or not, because you don’t appear in the piece.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:01

    I’m not in the piece.
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:02

    But what I took this as was basically him assigning you another job because you need more jobs. Yeah. And saying, here’s the problem. There’s no coordination among former Trump officials These guys haven’t gotten together. Nobody quite knows what to do, which to me is a sign that somebody from the outside needs to simply take on that task of pulling them all together.
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:31

    Yeah. And that I don’t know that there’s anybody else in America I would trust as much as I trust you. Yeah. Can you go do that, please?
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:37

    Yeah. I yeah. Amen. Trump officials against Trump. We’re we’re on it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:43

    Here’s the thing. What was so this piece, is it’s like it is like he took it out of my head. This is, like, the thing that, straight, you know, his the the overarching thesis is really the the quote from Martin Luther King that I like so much, which is it is not the attacks from my enemies, but the silence from my friends. That, like, will really do the damage. And Mattis in there.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:15

    So he’s got Mattis, and they’re quoted saying that it is not okay for generals to express preferences and elections. Yeah. I these are like me throwing my computer out the window moments. And I I gotta say there’s something about the generals. People who have Both offered to die for our country as well as asked other people to die for our country.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:46

    Who for whom democracy and its defense or America and its defenses, they’re sworn oath and life’s purpose and work. Suggesting that they ought not say. Hey. Worked for this guy. Hold orders off his desk and threw them in the trash because we weren’t gonna do them because they were insane.
  • Speaker 2
    0:19:14

    And he won’t tell the American people what he saw.
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:18

    So I I think it’s slightly more complicated than that. Have you seen general? I think we don’t want generals in general. We don’t want generals, or military people weighing in on civilian politics.
  • Speaker 2
    0:19:32

    Hold on, though. That sorry. Sorry. Not to interrupt, but I’ll just say If, he had just been a general. I might agree with that, but he went to work for Donald Trump.
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:46

    Ding, ding, ding. So my my point here is that, we don’t want general Jim Mattis to give us his opinion we want Secret Podcast Defense Jim Mattis That’s right.
  • Speaker 2
    0:19:58

    In
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:58

    his opinion. That’s great. That is the difference here.
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:01

    He took up a little post.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:03

    He he he is not, like, some officer somewhere who served you know, like, some job at the Pentagon and never saw the president, but, like, is here to tell us, like, Mike yeah. This is a we’re not we’re not resting on his valor. We we want Jim Mattis to say something for the exact same reason that we want, Christian Nielsen to say something. Right? It has nothing to do with military rank or status or anything that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:33

    It has to do with employment status at a first person level within the administration. That that is it. And that’s why I think if you don’t make it like, generals against Trump, but it’s like, Trump appointees against Trump.
  • Speaker 2
    0:20:51

    Trump officials
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:53

    I’m sorry. Like, so Jim Mattis, does it mean that you can’t speak because you were once a general? Well, that’s fucked up. That doesn’t mean anything. Right?
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:01

    You Like, that’s a weird thing. Right? Having been a journal means you’re never allowed to express, views about what you’ve seen. That That doesn’t sound right to me. So while I agree in general with the idea of military people, not in you know, getting enmeshed with politics.
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:20

    I don’t think that’s what this is. In fact, his status as a former military man is incidental.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:26

    Incidental. And and he he made that choice when he went to work for Trump. Yeah. And look, and to say and I went to work for him because I thought that there was. Value in serious people being in those jobs?
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:38

    Cool. That is when you made your choice to be to get into politics and make an impact. So now, this sounds to me like an excuse.
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:48

    Yes.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:48

    For not speaking up, and you Kelly was his chief of staff. And Kelly, frankly, you know, obviously, he has said something. But so all of these people, but there’s those aren’t the only trump officials. Like, there’s Trump. There’s a whole body of trump officials.
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:04

    And look, some of them aren’t Mark Esper, but they are not coordinated. Like, his point in the piece was, and and and this is always true of these coalitions and having been part of these coalitions, Like, there’s real truth to the fact that, like, all times you hate some of the other people in the coalitions.
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:21

    Yep.
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:21

    You think that they’ve done a bad job or you don’t like how they’re handling the discussion and, and I think that’s, like, that’s fair. But in this case, this is not just you don’t have to, like, be in a coalition with them forever. You don’t even have to do anything with them other than. Other than all see something. All say something.
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:48

    You know, if I it’s okay if you don’t have to
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:51

    And together. You have to say At
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:52

    the same time And
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:54

    you have
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:54

    to in a forest. Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:55

    Use it. Right? You have to have a plan as to how you’re
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:57

    going
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:57

    to use The thing you’re you can’t just say it to a reporter. That’s meaningless. That’s right. What you have to do is say, our statement is a tool. How how what situations and what ways can we apply this tool to give maximum leverage over the electoral outcomes?
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:13

    Hey, Sarah. Do you know what? There’s there’s actually more of the show.
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:17

    Oh, there is. How much more?
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:18

    There’s more so much more. All of the more it goes on for hours if people want to get the rest of the show. You you know what they have to do. Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:25

    I think they have to go to Bulwark Plus. Do they have to subscribe? What do they have to do?
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:29

    Yes. They have to pay us money. Oh. He did me in his money and go to the Bulwark dot com and subscribe to become a member of Bulwark Plus.
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:39

    All the good stuffs on the other side.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:41

    Bye.
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