George Washington Wouldn’t Tolerate Furries(with Charlie Sykes)
Episode Notes
Transcript
America’s Dairyland is becoming America’s Election Land. Wisconsin has major races for governor and for U.S. Senate…and how are the Trump-to-Biden voters that delivered Wisconsin for Joe Biden feeling about them? The Bulwark’s own Charlie Sykes joins Sarah to talk about what the voters (and Charlie) are thinking. Listen to the end for the most laugh-o…
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This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
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Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Focus Group podcast. I’m Sarah Longwell, Publisher of The Bulwark. And this week, we are headed once again to a America’s Dairyland, Wisconsin. Since we last talked about Wisconsin, the Trump endorsed businessman Tim Michaels won the Republican primary to face Democratic incumbent governor Tony Evers. And there have been a rash of polls showing that Democrat lieutenant governor Tela Barnes has a real shot against GOP senator Ron Johnson.
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But one thing hasn’t changed. Wisconsin is still an evenly divided and crucial state this election cycle. So for this week’s group, we took the temperature of a bunch of Wisconsin swing voters, all of whom voted for Trump in twenty sixteen and Biden in twenty twenty. Once again, I am joined by the Bulworx, the one, the only person I know from Wisconsin Charlie Sykes. Hey, Charlie.
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Thanks for being here.
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Well, it is great to talk about the cheese heads. Good to be back.
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So what is it like up there unless Constant right now. Like, what’s the vibe? Oh, man. Is it, like, fall? Is it nice?
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Like, what’s happening?
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It is fall. Over the weekend, I was I was done in Los in Texas where it was ninety eight degrees and come back here and it is a hardcore fall temperature in the fifties.
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Sounds great.
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Wisconsin. It’s September, October. What can I say?
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Are those, like, your best months? Is that, like, when Wisconsin really shines?
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We have about six weeks of great summer. Those are our best months. Okay. That’s but that’s just me.
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Got it. Got it. Okay. So this is your third time on the show to talk about Wisconsin. You know more about it than anybody else that I know.
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Before we talk about Wisconsin, I’m sorry. We just have to quickly talk about Florida. I’m sorry. No. This was the first group we had done since the Ron DeSantis immigration stunt.
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And so we didn’t wanna miss an opportunity to ask these swing voters what they thought about that. And immigration is now sort of back on the top of people’s radars. It’s even been eclipsing a portion as the top Google search. And it’s mainly because of this Ron DeSantis Martha’s Vineyard Stone. You know, immigration kind of popped up at the top of the group with one guy bringing it up.
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Nobody mentioned abortion, and we found that this group did not like the DeSantis stuff. They really didn’t like it. But some of them still said they wanted to see more of a focus on the border from Biden. So let’s listen.
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It’s absolutely pathetic. I mean, I can I understand the well, I don’t really understand the message he’s trying to
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send, but,
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like, this is everybody’s problem, something I mean, they’re human beings. Like, I don’t care what country they’re from. That is
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very much the state of the Republican party.
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It’s gonna be
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Trump or
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it’s gonna be desantis. That will be your choice as a Republican voter. It’s it’s horrible. I don’t have anything else to say other than
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that.
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I mentioned before that, you know, Biden wasn’t my I wasn’t the biggest fan and still the thing with immigration is if I remember, he asked the vice president, terrorist, to take control, go down to the border, let’s fix this. And it’s been two years now. And I don’t think anything’s changed. If anything gets gotten worse, So we have a lack of a national focus on what’s going on with immigration. So these guys, out of it, they’re they’re just taking it ourselves and just saying, well, let’s do this because it doesn’t really matter.
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No one cares. So I’m gonna do this just despite you. So it’s gonna be a lack of national focus on what we’re supposed to be doing. What’s the issue? I mean, do we have a policy or don’t we have a policy?
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And I don’t see anything.
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I just, like, feel bad for these people because, like, I think this is all sick just using these people as political pawns. Like, these are people who, you know, and they don’t know better because they just wanna be here because they think we are the best country ever their situation is terrible and, you know, like, DeSantis and Abbott are just using it as, like, just trash that they can throw aside and to make a point. And then just makes me feel really bad for these people. So
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I was very interested to hear what swing voters were gonna say about this desantis thing because I could have seen it going either way. But they were pretty firmly mad about it or thought it was a gross thing to do. What did you think about what they said?
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No. I
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thought that was interesting. The juxtaposition of the two positions that is was a manipulative stunt, but also there’s a problem at the border. You can hold those thoughts in your head at the same time. And I think that that sort of, you know, captures some of the division here in Wisconsin. But it is interesting how this has penetrated through and the people did get the scam element of all of that.
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We’ll have to see how it plays out because these are swing voters. And I was really struck by the fact that these are very, very thoughtful people who have really been locked into the news and had been clearly disillusioned with some of their previous votes and were willing to be a more open minded about it. I don’t know how it plays out. With the hardcore mega voters, you know, the the Trump Trump voters in sixteen and in twenty, the people who are gonna turn out and vote for. Ron Johnson, again, whether or not they see it the same way I just don’t know.
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Yeah. I mean, I suspect the hardcore trumpeters think it’s great. They love all these this hardcore trolling using real people in their roles. But, you know, I’m always interested in these in these swing voters and I’ll just say about this group, in particular, you mentioned that they were a thoughtful group. They were quite a thoughtful group.
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But they are like most swing voters that we see these sort of Trump six seen Biden twenty twenty voters in that they still are oriented as Republicans. Like, they all voted in the Republican primary. Mhmm. But but they spent a lot of time lamenting the state of the Republican Party and lamenting the state of the country, how to fighting we are. This is also like a a quality, I think, of the swing voting groups who, like, changed their vote from sixteen to twenty.
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Where they’re just like, oh my god. What is going on? Let’s listen to how they were talking about what a polarized divided time we live in in this country. To watch that
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country mourn the loss of their queen and everyone to wait hours and days the line and walk miles Like, that really stood out to me, and I’m like, I wish we had that. You know, to be so just concerned that you’ve lost this person that was a good guiding force in your politics. Like, why can’t we have that? I mean, granted, I feel like with the whole mega thing, that’s kind of where they think they are. But, like, why can’t we have something like that where we truly respect our politicians and truly respect our president because I don’t feel like there is any respect anymore.
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I’ll agree with that, but I don’t think it is the people don’t respect the politicians anymore. It’s like, I don’t trust them anymore. And I’m I’m seeing this race for governor. I’m seeing this race for senate. And in Wisconsin, it’s like, the ads are unbelievable.
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And there’s so much divisiveness right now. Yeah. England came together for their queen. Would we come together for the president? Not in that respect.
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I really doubt it because there’s just too much too much separation between left and right I
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remember as a kid, night eleven, you know, how we all came together. Like, one side of my family loved bush and the other side, heated bush. But in that time, we knew we had to come together. And if something like that happened now, I don’t think the country would come together. Like, the country didn’t come together for corona.
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And I think, you know, the United States hurt because of it. You know? I really wish there was someone that can work even if they are conservative, that one moment they can come together and work together, and Biden can’t do that. You
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know, sometimes I find myself just marinating in the lamentations of the centrist voter. Because, like, I just I feel it so hard. But they raised an interesting question, like, I just wanted to ask you, what do you think would happen if, like, Joe Biden died or Donald Trump died? Like, how would we as a country react to that? I
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think that’s an excellent question because it really sense that, you know, first of all, the exhaustion with our politics, but also that sense that nothing is going to bring us together. That we’re not going to experience anything like the National unity mourning the the Queen that we are just too divided. There is really nothing that’s gonna pull us together. We didn’t come together for COVID-nineteen. It’s almost inconceivable to imagine the country.
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Coming together after nine eleven again. And, you know, this is what really struck me about this part of the the discussion. How deep that yearning is for some kind of sanity in our politics. And and I think that that’s an underappreciated political phenomenon, not just in Wisconsin that but the people are looking around whatever side of the divide you’re on. You’re going, this is bad.
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This is dangerous. This is getting worse. It didn’t always have to be this way. I wish I didn’t have to argue with members of my family like this. I I wish I could turn on television without being absolutely inundated with negative toxic ads.
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So this is an interesting question. Where those voters go? Where those exhausted disillusioned voters actually end up.
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It’s weird because it is both a very real phenomenon. But it is one that you hear primarily from this kind of slice of swing, voter ish, that is willing to vote for both parties. Like, people will say in the more partisan groups. Right? If you’re just like always a Democrat, always a Republican, they’ll say, like, we’re too divided, but they’ll also kinda be, like, we shouldn’t be so divided, but also everything is that other political parties fault and those jerks and blah blah blah, you know, there’s something about the swing voters where it’s it’s deeper, but I also think that there’s a tendency to over to meet how many of these people there are.
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Like, I think sometimes people like my beloved Larry Hogan will talk about the exhausted majority. And I’m worried that it is an exhausted minority. That there’s a great reaction. You know, that it’s still like an energized majority on both sides that are hyper partisan. But, like, these are our people who are, like, trying to model through wishing for sort of a kindler, gentler America.
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But this is where leadership could make a huge difference. Right? As if somebody sort
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of to tap into this —
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Yeah. — to tap into this. That
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phrase kept popping up as I was watching the the focus group. These are our people here. And, you know, just a note about Wisconsin. One of the things that I think has been a fixed reality since probably two thousand ten has been how small the group of swing voters has been. I mean, our polls don’t move very much.
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I remember when Scott Walker was the governor here, there was virtually no one who was undecided about anything.
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Mhmm. There would
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be normally, you’d expect that there’d be what, you know, somewhere between your five and ten percent who’d be undecided. There were a lot of surveys that found virtually nobody was not locked into a position. But also, there is that sort of underwater exhaustion because particularly here in Wisconsin, this has been going on a very, very long time, as you know. And it feels like it’s ratcheting up, but you’re right. I don’t know that it’s the majority who is exhausted, but there is a minority and it might be larger than shows up in the polls.
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And I think the real big question in a midterm election is how many of those just decide like screw it and stay home — Yeah. — as opposed to vote. And even if there’s a small group who just say screw it and stay home or just who exhausted, who just, you know, a pox on both your houses. That could be decisive in a state where our statewide elections are decided by roughly twenty thousand votes. One
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hundred percent. Well, let’s talk about it. Let’s talk about those races. So we’ll start with the governor’s race. And it’s one of the more competitive governor’s races in the country.
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You know, I always talk about how nice people are from Wisconsin, and they were just as nice about evers. Not because they think he’s perfect, but because they clearly give him the benefit of the doubt. Let’s listen.
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I am not decided a hundred percent, but I’d like, at this point, Eva’s a little bit better. He hasn’t blued Wisconsin. Wisconsin’s fiscally responsible. We don’t have pension debt. We don’t have any of these other issues that neighboring states might have.
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If our legislature would have worked with him on things, we
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might have
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got something done.
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Again, that’s the divisiveness that we always see across the US. But regardless, he is getting stuff done. I like his demeanor. He he doesn’t seem to have the hathead that Trump had. And for some reason, I could definitely see Michaels having that same type of reaction if something were to go
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wrong. Oh, I probably ninety eight percent will be evers. I mean, he’s he’s from my backyard. I mean, he’s from Plymouth. He just resonates Wisconsin.
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You know, he doesn’t have any real error about him. I think he
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ever done a pretty good job by meeting came in at probably the worst time anybody could start a new job. I mean, right in the middle of a call, but he was under fire. But it wasn’t like the guy had a playbook to follow to know what to do. We were all new to this. And, you know, I guess he didn’t tell us to inject bleach.
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So, you know, that’s a plus. I kind of forgot about that, Jim, from the Trump history books.
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So
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this last guy was the one guy in the group who said he would probably vote for Michaels if the election were today. But he was still very cordial and nice about Evers. It’s a weird thing for a lot of these swing state governors because on one level, people have been kinda waiting to take their shots at them over COVID and like the way that they didn’t like the way a lot of these Democratic governors handled COVID. This group certainly was not particularly down on either So what do you think the mood of the state is on Evers right now? That
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was what was most interesting, I think, in the take, because Evers is is certainly not charismatic. He’s certainly not a strong political figure. I think he was elected in twenty eighteen primarily because he was not Scott Walker, but Unlike Scott Walker, he is not a polarizing figure, as you could tell from that focus group, people don’t have strong feelings about him. And that may work in his favor because it’s hard to gin up, work up, you know, a sense of little outrage about Tony Evers who who again is kind of a kind of a bland figure in many ways. But I I noticed the one guy who was thinking of voting for Michael’s seemed to really focus on the fact that he likes businessmen in government.
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But I also noticed how many people perhaps voted for Trump first time around because they thought that he was a good businessman and we need more businessman in government and are now realizing that that did not work out. So I don’t know how this one’s gonna play out. It’s gonna be very, very close. I think that Michaels is probably not the strongest candidate Michaels has a lot of baggage. Again, people are not passionate in the need to oust Tony Evers, and I think that probably helps Yeah.
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I wanna jump in here and talk about Michaels. But before I do, you raise something actually. So in every flipper group, we have an extended conversation at the top where we ask them about why they voted for Donald Trump in twenty sixteen, and then, you know, why did they change their vote to Joe Biden in twenty twenty? And like, these conversations are very consistent. You know, I thought he was a businessman, he wasn’t a politician.
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I thought he told the truth, then he gets in there, and he governs and they’re like, oh, that’s not what I wanted. This guy’s crazy. This guy’s insane. He’s embarrassing us on the world stage. And these flipper voters tend to be very you know, like Donald Trump really burned them and, like, left elastic impression.
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And and to your point, then I think with Michaels where he reminds them of Trump and they know that he was endorsed by Trump that that is actually causing them to be much less pro Michaels because he fits in arc type that they’ve been burned by before. Like, I actually think that’s a really smart observation you just made.
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William, also, I found this extremely interesting listening to your focus group. The number of them that spontaneously raised, number of the ads that are running on the air. And by the way, here in Wisconsin, we are just being pounded with ads in the governor’s race and in the senate race. So the big question is always, does anything break through? Does it make a difference?
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There is a new anti Michael’s ad that points out all of the charges of sexual harassment that would have been lodged against his company and the bad record on on sexual harassment. And then it asked the question, well, if this is the way he runs the company, you know, how will he run Wisconsin? And this came up during the focus group, and that tells me again that it is having some traction And in people’s minds, perhaps it is connecting Tim Michaels with some of the downsides of Donald Trump as well.
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Yeah. Alright. Let’s get into it because we have sound from that ad. You’re totally right. So let’s let’s jump in and let’s listen to what these voters had to say about Michaels.
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When
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I first saw his I think it was one of his initial ads on television. He’s driving this truck. He’s got this like, just a open shirt on. He’s got a little bit of growth going on there. He goes, you know, I’m not I’m not a politician.
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I’m a businessman, blah blah blah. I’m thinking to myself, and this guy sounds pretty good. You know, he sounds sort of Trump like. Well, of course, then it comes out there. I want Trump endorsed him.
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And then he built a model of the wall. He that’s one of his pillars of strength that he had a proposal for the wall But now as it moves forward and I hear some of his other parts of the platform, I’m not plus with him. The fact I learned he has a million dollar states outside of Wisconsin as kids go special prep schools or whatever it is. I’m not too sure.
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I
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guess I’m on the sides that I don’t know what’s what Michael’s is that probably should have voted for him and primary just because he’s a businessman background and I mean, we’re just got bombarded with ads for him and, you know, Mandela Barnes and Ron Johnson and every other commercial. And one just popped yesterday about Michaels and sexual harassment suits in his business, and I knew nothing about that. So one of that’s true or not. That kind of put me on the fence if that’s nothing or not. Howard Bauchner: And
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of course, Michaels had to pray to his wife across the stage and wanted her to have all the attention and made a big deal of saying, oh, everywhere I go, she’s with me. Well, I’m thinking, yeah, we know why you’re saying that right now because that’s are coming out of all the problems that you’re having. So great. And he I was in real estate for a number of years, and Michael’s construction and their quarries. They’re very ruthless in business.
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They don’t really care about the environment, what they do. They just come in and get what they want. That reminds me an awful lot of someone else we don’t like. So that’s where I’m at.
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Michael sounded great, but then it just, like, he just reminded me of that Ron Johnson and and Trump in the beginning, you know, businessman that try and do something different, but then, you know, they aren’t what they say. And I I used to work in the plumbing field. And, like, I know of Michael how ruthless he has for just how he got that area down on this outside. It’s just don’t care the pollution that’s going into the Milwaukee River from that building and all. It’s it’s terrible.
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So yeah. So
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these attacks on his business practices seem to, like, really be land. Yeah. And and I guess since you’re there, is it working because people have, like, a lot of context for it. Like, it sounds like these people knew something about his businesses and what they were doing. Well, I have to say
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that they knew more about his business than I did. The thing about Tim Michaels, I mean, the company is well known. He himself is not well known. He actually did run for United States, sent it back. Back back in the day.
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In the before times, you ran a very mediocre campaign and and lost Like, two thousand four.
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Right? But then he
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disappeared completely from Wisconsin. He moved out to Connecticut, built himself a multimillion dollar house and his kids to school out there, and he’s basically been absent from Wisconsin politics. And so I I think what you’re seeing now is that he has to reintroduce himself, and he’s not well known here in Wisconsin. And because he’s been absent for so long, he really is kind of not ready for prime time. He was not particularly impressive during the primary even though he did win with with Trump’s endorsement.
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He has not put together a really stellar campaign. So the Democrats have stolen a march by going after his strength, and I think that’s what’s so interesting. If his strength is, I am a successful businessman, they have gone right after that And apparently, you’re scoring some point. Whether it makes a difference in the end, I don’t know. But again, it’s a sign of his vulnerability against a Democratic incumbent who on papers should be quite weak.
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Yeah. Actually,
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let’s just listen to the ad that they were talking
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about. At a
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company, the culture comes from the top. Tim Michael’s company has been sued numerous times over sexual assault and harassment in the workplace. Women who worked for Michael’s company said they were groped, assaulted, and pressured to have sex with their bosses. Higher ops at Michaels, dismissed the women as liars, and even fired those who spoke out. Is that what we need for Wisconsin?
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Tim Michaels, too radical, too divisive. Maybe yikes.
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Yeah. Well, that’s
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what that was my reaction to it. Well, so
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here’s my question. About, like, the experience of the ads. Because this in all the focus groups now, it is funny how two things are true. One, they hate the ads so much. And to everything they know about any candidates based on the ads.
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Correct. So, like, the ads work, the ads are doing important things to define candidates drive up negatives. Like, there’s a reason there’s an error on this stuff. Well, like, what’s it like when you’re just watching TV and was like
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Wall to wall to wall to
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wall. And
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they’re all at this point of the campaign, they’re all negative. It feels like
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Now, at what point do you start to, like, turn on the candidates just because you can’t stand their stupid face in another ad? See,
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that’s an interesting question. That’s why we come back to this question of, at what point do voters become exhausted, just disgusted by it? And does that affect turnout? I mean, obviously, It would be in the interest of some of the candidates to just discuss swing voters to the point where they just throw up their hands and decide to sit home. But Wisconsin has pretty high turnout and look, we’re not new to tough campaigns.
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So I I don’t know, but we’ve never seen anything like this. One other point though. So going back to the point about how Michaels is not well known, one of the reasons why I think that that ad is having a similar fact is there’s not this gigantic reservoir of good will for him personally. He doesn’t have deep roots in the state where a lot of voters would go, okay, That sounds bad, but we know this guy, and therefore, we’re going to rally around him. If you ran an ad like that against and I’m sorry to pick a name out of the air here in Wisconsin unfairly, But if you ran an ad like that again, say, you know, Tommy Thompson, legendary former governor here, it wouldn’t have the effect because the voters would say, look, he’s our guy.
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We know him. We’re willing to cut him some slack. Tim Michaels doesn’t have that advantage because he’s parachuted in with Trump’s endorsement. So it’s wide but not necessarily deep. You know, and this
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is actually such a critical part of the contours of any race. Because you can look at a bunch of the people that Trump grabbed and, like, who’s kinda withering on the vine and who’s doing well? And a lot of the difference tends to be whether or not they have that sense of place or they have a reputation like Cary Lake is doing much better in Arizona because she is very well known in Arizona, and everybody says it in the focus groups. They’re like, well, she’s in my living room for twenty years. Right?
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And so they trust her and they have a relationship with her. Hirschfeld Walker is, like, beloved in Georgia because he was this longtime football player. That is helping them in ways that for, like, the Blake Masters doctor Oz. Yep. Doctor Oz, that’s right.
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People who are not of the place. It’s like underappreciated how much that is part of the story, that about how these races are shaping up. Okay. Okay. So that what everybody’s been waiting for, though, is the sound on Ron Johnson.
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We gotta talk about this senate race. The last conversation we had, you and I were a hundred percent on the same page. About Mandela Barnes just being a poor fit for this cycle in Wisconsin. But I after listening to this group, I’m like I don’t know. I’m moving on this a little bit.
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And the the reason is is like, Mandela Barnes through the summer was actually outperforming expectations, but you and I and we talked about this — Yeah. — like the Republican monies come in, man, they’re gonna remind people of this guy’s activist career. But This group just really is out on Johnson, like the same way that they’re out on Trump. Let’s listen.
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Think I probably voted for the other guy in the prime rights member’s name because it was a vote against Ron Johnson. He’s just not pardon my psychology here, but he’s just not just it got to the point where just say nothing, you’d be better off. It’s
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almost like Trump again, you know. Now it’s basically a vote against Rod Johnson, his insanity, that has become because of Trump. You know? Ron Johnson seemed like a great candidate you know, he was the the working guy that he helped clear out all the the same
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old same
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old and stuff that comes out of his mouth is just insanity. Like, it
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sounds
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like it’s
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coming out of my father’s mouth who has no politics experience at all, and he literally just rarely picks Republican just because I can’t
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vote for Johnson with all those fake ads. His ads are BS, and he’s got all these not I don’t wanna sound racist, but he he he’s got all these black people
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that he probably hasn’t been around ten black people out of those commercials in his life. I just I can’t do it. And the the the whole Trump stuff that
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he was pushing that agenda. He’s nuts. I
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mean nuts insane. They have some harsh words — And they’re not real. — mister Thompson here.
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And I just
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but this
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is the thing. So is it possible, Charlie, that we have been underestimating just how much people I hate Ron Johnson. Like, could Barnes win on Johnson hatred alone? I have three words
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for you. Walk a Shaw Christmas parade. And it is not breaking news that Republicans all around the country are pounding the crime issue, but it is really intense here in Wisconsin and very specifically, if you are in this state, you’re going to be hearing wall to wall about the massacre at the Waukesha Christmas parade where you had some demented individual with a car who mow down a number of individuals, killed them, including, you know, the dancing grannies, etcetera. That trial, by the way, is beginning here. In Wisconsin now.
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And the reason it is so toxic is because the guy who killed all the people at The Walker Shuckers sprayed was out on a very, very small cash bail. So the cash bail issue has become the new defund, the police here in Wisconsin, and Mandela Barnes is all in an abolishing cash bail. And every other ad you see on the air is about Mandela Barnes wanting violent criminals on the street and abolishing cash bail, and he has not backed off from that. And He has tried to counter that by citing support from law enforcement officials and that has not gone well because we had a number of them who you know, law enforcement officials, including a sheriffs who have said, no, I I really am not supporting Mandela Barnes even though I’m listed as doing it. So to your question, I’m sorry, sort of the, you know, long way around is if Mandela Barnes wins this, it will be because of Johnson hatred because the Johnson is just too embarrassing, too crazy, too extreme, too lumpy for Wisconsin.
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And he clearly is a tremendous motivating factor to turn out Democrats. I mean, this is the engine that will turn out voters from Gain County and Milwaukee County. Unlike Tony Evers, who is not offensive, Ron Johnson is the ultimate polarizing figure. So yes, The downside is that Mandela Barnes has taken a lot of positions that are a Apple researchers dream And if you are here, you’re just now seeing, like, the boulder rolling down the hill on all of that. So I’m I I remain skeptical.
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But
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did it surprise you? Like, how much they hated Johnson? Because I will say and will play their sound on Barnes, but, like, every single one of them said that they were gonna vote for Barnes. Including our dude who said he was gonna vote for Michael. I think there were two
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of them that said they were not gonna vote. Oh, that’s right. So the
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No. No.
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No. You’re
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right. But this was super interesting to me. Actually, just tweeted about it. So everyone said they were gonna vote for Barnes except for those two women. And they both said that they didn’t know if they could vote for Barnes, but they were absolutely not
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— Right. Right. — vote
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for Ron Johnson, and that they might just leave it blank. And, like, how much of that could happen? Like, there’s that dynamic where they’re, like, I’m not gonna vote for this Barnes guy, but, like, I cannot I cannot affirmatively vote for Ron Johnson. Well
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and and see, this is this is why it might be decisive in Wisconsin because and we’ve talked about this before. I mean, Wisconsin politics is about turning out your base in big numbers But then there are these these swing suburban votes, the the WOW counties, Waukesha Ouzaki, Washington County used to be overwhelmingly Republican. And that’s where Donald Trump launched a lot of ground compared to other Republicans in those counties. A lot of those folks did not vote for Donald Trump in in sick sixteen, more of it didn’t vote for him in twenty, which is really why he lost Wisconsin. But Johnson has done relatively well in those areas.
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If there is a Trumpist like falloff in the vote in the wild counties and democrats turn out, that could be fatal for him. So if you do have voters who go, I’m embarrassed by his conspiracy. There is, you know, he continues sound off about COVID, his position on abortion, etcetera, you could see that. But also, you have to ask yourself in the last four weeks if their airwaves are just being pounded by crime ads and things like that. They might come home?
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They might.
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I I will say, I just I was so interested listening to this group that I went back and watched the Republican group that you and I talked about previously when we were talking about the primaries. And there were, like, three women in that group who were, like, I can’t vote for Ron Johnson. Because I remember you and I talked about, like, how weak he was with these Republicans and how if they’d had a better Democrat — Yeah. — that, like, absolutely Johnson could get kicked off right now. Right.
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But I was just went back and, like, refreshed my memory, and they were just totally open to voting for a Democrat. And those were the Republicans, like, full on. These were at least swing voters but those those were like hardcore Republicans and they they hated Johnson. So I I just feel like this could be an upset, but I take your point on the cash bail, but let’s listen to what the voters had to say about Barnes. Because I will say The cash building didn’t come up in their comments, so let’s listen.
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I’m just really not sure. I I know I can’t vote for Ron Johnson. I’m not sure Mandela Barnes is qualified. So I I know it’s not the right thing to do, but I just might not vote created because I’m not sure. Not
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a big Barnes fan because I don’t know that he’s qualified to be senator. He’s been lieutenant governor, which doesn’t really do anything in here as I can tell.
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So he’s
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on good luck, and that’s where he’s gonna get votes, and he’s the anti Ron Johnson. So that might be where I’m leading. I haven’t really decided yet. Again, those ads are just nonstop tool.
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Howard Bauchner: When
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you look at the ads, there’s Ron Johnson running on, like, fifth responsibility. We’re spending too much. He’s gonna rein it in. And then you have Mandela Barnes who talks about his upbringing with his parents that are, you know, working and he’s making a peanut butter sandwich. And it’s like the down home type of thing Right now, I I am leaning towards Barnes, and it’s probably not sixty five thirty five, but probably seventy thirty.
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For barns at this point in time. Howard
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Bauchner: I don’t
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know a lot about what Mandela has done. I don’t know a lot about humongous. So that would be my hesitation with him, but I know I cannot vote for a bunch of them.
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So, number one, what they seem to know about Mandela Barnes when they talk about him is, like, the the personal story stuff that he was doing over the summer about his family, but they didn’t bring up the cash bail attacks from this, like, barrage of ads that Connell is running. Did that surprise you? No.
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But it made me somewhat skeptical of the uniform support for Because if you’re in Wisconsin, you’ve seen those and and they’re a big issue, and and there’s some other stuff as well. And and we should mention these Mitch McConnell ads, there’s a potential for backfiring because they’re the ones that show Mandela Barnes with the squad with AOC and with Elon Omar and says, you know, mandela Barnes different and then it morphs into dangerous. Like, while that’s really subtle playing the race card, the nice way of putting it is borderline. The, you know, more direct way of putting it is it goes beyond a a dog whistle. So will that work?
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But this is a state that is overwhelmingly white and that they figured they’re going to be playing that particular card. I was watching this
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group. This group was kind of like the middle aged group. And there was, like, a couple of just, like, very standard, old white guys in it. And, like, one of them was the guy who was, like, seventy thirty going for Barnes. You know, this guy’s been a Republican voted for Trump the first time.
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Link seems to be fine, voting for Barnes. And I I don’t know. I
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I don’t know either. You know, one of the things that I thought was was interesting is this group was quite adamant, quite clear about how they felt about Donald Trump. You know, when you asked them how they felt about Joe Biden, if some of them were wishy, washy. But if I remember correctly, when they were asked if there was a a remash between Biden and Trump, who would you vote for? Every one of them said said Biden.
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So this is a very, very anti Trump group. But in Wisconsin, because everything’s on a razor’s edge, the Democrats need to get every single one of those votes. Right. Every single one of them. And so one of the questions I was asking, is there any follow-up And so going back to our previous discussion, I think that there were a lot of voters who were really looking for an invitation to vote for someone other than Johnson.
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And I guess the big question mark is whether Mandela Barnes is going to be able to fulfill that. Could certainly imagine other Democrats, including more generic Democrats, or more centrist Democrats, who I think would have had a better shot But you’re right. I mean, this this group was certainly not carrying any water for Ron Johnson, and they clearly have been paying attention to what Johnson’s have been saying in the in the way he’s been sharing this
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out. Okay. I’m sorry to do
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this to you.
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Do you know what’s about to happen right now?
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No. Okay.
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So we did Michael’s, we did Johnson, we did the races, but now I’ve just got to talk to you about something that happened in this focus
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group.
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That was maybe the most laugh out loud, funny thing that I’ve ever heard happen in the group. Where and I’m just gonna play it for you, but then you and I are gonna have talk about it. So just prepare yourself. Let’s listen to as one woman was just of winding herself up about the evils that Donald Trump has unleashed on our culture. She started going in this direction.
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I’m a
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teacher and I feel like once you kind of allow something different, like, right now in schools is kind of like gender identity and the furries that are in schools. I mean, this is a real thing. Like, kids just had a job fair and education fair, and there were literally probably fifteen kids there that were furries. And what has happened to society. Once you allow someone like maybe Trump as president and then everything he says and does and tweets and it kind of filters down, like, to our kids and you wonder what is going on?
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Like, it’s just a little bit What do
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you mean a furry? Furry oh, well, when I told my eighty two year old mother, I
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thought she was gonna have a heart attack. She’s like, you’re lying. I go, okay. Monkeypox and furies are real, by the way. So she’s like, dressed in stuffed animals.
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They identify as a cat. They identify as a dog. Kids identify as cats and dogs. Yep. They had collars on.
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They had a leash. I mean, they were You physically saw
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this? Yes. Yes.
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Do they have
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a special litter box in the back?
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Yes. No. But
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that’s that’s the thing around our school district. It’s it’s like, oh, they’re gonna ask for litter boxes next. And, I mean, I I’ve never seen anything, but I mean, I
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didn’t see the litter box.
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I mean, at the schools, I heard about that. It could be a rumor. Like, I literally saw them for the first time yesterday, and I thought, oh, no. Like, what is happening with our country? Oh
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my god.
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So this slippery slope. You know what I mean? It’s a slippery slope of morals than character. And once you kind of allow that piece, when you think of January six, all of a sudden you kind of lose that that line of human decency and behavior, that code you know, like George Washington is, like, code of conduct rules. I have my classroom.
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They’re amazing. You know, cover your mouth and your yawn. Like, I feel like we have lost that, but I’ll stop talking. No. That’s super new to me.
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But I feel like we’ll be here all night if I ask you a bunch of questions about it. Okay. I mean, obviously, George Washington. To
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start the
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day drinking. George
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Washington would definitely
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not have tolerated furries. I have
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to ask you,
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is this a thing that’s happening in Wisconsin? Are all the children? The teenagers? Are they dressing up as animals and identifying as cats and dogs? Is this should I be more like panicked about this?
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Well, apparently, the the litter box is the new same sex bathroom issue. I I don’t know. I was particularly struck by not only that she’s concerned about the furries, but connecting the dots from furries to Donald Trump into January six, I Oh, boy. See, this is why, Sarah, you have a different perspective on politics than the rest of us because you spend time with people who make connections that would never have occurred to us otherwise. No.
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I I don’t think we have a major furry problem in Wisconsin and However, I do remember growing up that there were kids who were dressed like Batman and who were dressed like cowboys and dressed like, you know, chewbacca. But I never connected that with the decline of western civilization. So
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I gotta say, I engaged with this just with pure joy. Because I just thought it was is funny and I also was like, I don’t know a lot about furries, but I do know that it is not the same thing as identifying as cat or a dog. No. I’m also quite certain that this thing about them putting litter boxes in schools because people identify as cats as like, gotta be a hoax or, like, it happened in one insane place, but, like, it’s not a it’s not a plague afflicting our land. But, like, listening to this group of people, like, engage with her as she was, like, no, this is real.
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Like, this is really happening and them all being, like, Wow. Kids are identifying as cats or dogs. This is actually a slightly important point that I wanna make about the way that serious now.
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It is a
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tale as old as time. That teenagers do weird things and their elders are shocked by them. But it is this was obviously wrapped up in this idea of, like, gender identity, and she wasn’t trying to, like, be mean about gender identity. She just she was going to this next place, but it seems like there’s a lot of middle aged folks who are primed to be horrified by all the newfangled phenomena much of which is pretty standard. Teams being weird pushing boundaries is not actually, like, gender identity, like, the conversation around trans issues.
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But it’s it’s the kind of thing that I think makes people say, like, oh, yeah, you know, countries really off the
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rails. Well, I
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think that’s it. It’s that sense that things are falling apart, that there’s chaos so that anything you see that is out of the Normans that are going saying, well, you know, that’s you know, whatever. You go, okay, there’s another indication that things are pulling apart, that there are these cracks, these these fissures. So let me tell you how it’s going to play out.
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Sir. Please.
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About the furry thing. And and the the litter box, it’s going to be multiple segments on the Tucker Carlson Show on Fox News. About you think this is a joke, but it’s really happening. Why are they doing this? Why does the ACLU want to have mandatory cat litter boxes?
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In every one of your child’s classrooms. And you know, within a week, Wanda Santos is going to be proposing legislation banning litter boxes in public schools in Florida. And then Ron Johnson will be asked about it. And he will say, hey, we’re just trying to get you the truth. Just asking questions.
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Just asking questions.
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About what’s in
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those litter boxes? Just asking questions. I’ve got I want you to write this down. Charlie is predicting that this is gonna be a thing. Yes, this is gonna.
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Oh, man.
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Well, that’s it. That’s your moment of focus groups in everybody. Charlie Sykes. This is the last one you have to do until until maybe we do a do a postgame, depending. But I really appreciate.
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I think you’re our first three Pete guests I appreciate you coming, breaking down Wisconsin. It’s always a pleasure to have you here. Thank you. And thanks for listening to another week of the Focus Group podcast, make sure you go, leave a comment, and to celebrate Charlie Sykes. I will close by saying, come back now next week, we’re gonna do this all over again.
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Bye bye.
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