Enemies and Traitors Working Together

Hello. Welcome to the next level podcast. Tim Miller in the host chair. God damn it. I gotta keep hosting again.

Cause JBL is out this week. I’m here with my best friend. From the mid aughts, Sarah Longwell, and a and a aspiring new Ron DeSantis mentee Andrew Edgar, I’m just not an agent. I’m not gonna identify somebody as your mentee. I think they have to tap you as mental.

Oh, that’s how that Bulwark. Okay. Okay. Whatever. I’ve got a wide range of people that I aspire to want to be my mentee, but maybe maybe not all of them.

We’ll we’ll, you know, kind of fit that fit that requirement. Andrew, how you doing?

I’m great.

Nice help.

Oh, thank you.

I said you’re worried about your look for YouTube, and I think you look nice.

Well, that’s so nice of you to say. I think I think together okay myself.

Okay. Well, JBL is on spring break. I’m also on spring break, which is not a break. I have four children in my home. My nephews and nieces are here.

And so if you hear random yelps during the podcast, that is just me enjoying a beach holiday. Sarah Longwell I’ve I’ve I’m I’m over the Republican primary. I’m done with it. I’ve been done with it for like a month. I I just I can’t bring myself to care and yet we have people like you who are still and Bill crystal, who are still analyzing the county by county numbers.

Looking for that diamond in the rough, looking for that little bit of proof that Joe Biden might Willie win after all. And so I’d like to hear your analysis of what happened in Wisconsin last night.

This is not about the primary. This is about the general election. This is about identifying the voters who don’t wanna vote for Donald Trump and could be potentially getable for Joe Biden. And last night, just like when the Arizona primary sort of came out of nowhere that almost twenty percent. I think it was eighteen percent of Republicans in Arizona came out to vote against Donald Trump at a time when the the alternatives weren’t even technically on the ballot, they were there to vote for, but they have already dropped out of this race.

And so last night in Wisconsin, to see seventy thousand Republicans. I think it was ultimately seventy two thousand by this morning. Vote against Donald Trump vote for Nikki Haley specifically, and then you drop on top of that.

Don’t forget Ron DeSantis.

Well, I was gonna say he got three percent. Yeah. He got a little over three percent. And then there was, what’s the one that they can check that, it’s like uncommitted, I think, is the

They call it uninstructed, which is really pretty.

Unstructed. Yeah. It’s a

weird name.

Weird name. But all that, if you add Broughtty D. You add up Nikki and you add up the unrequited or whatever. You get a hundred per you get like a hundred thousand voters. Who last night in the Wisconsin Republican primary said no to Trump.

He didn’t even crack eighty percent. That’s that’s meaningful. Now look, And and here’s one of the things that I’ve been thinking about a lot is, you know, Joe Biden, this story is there for Joe Biden too. Right? There’s a story about people especially in Michigan, you saw the uncommitted, turn out to send a message, right, protest voting.

And so these are essentially message sending deals whenever you see these numbers like this, right? Because nobody thinks Nikki Haley’s actually gonna win. And the uncommitted you know, thing in Michigan is just to scare Joe Biden into doing, you know, what Rashida to leave wants. And actually, and what a lot of progressive But the statement, I think that there is more like it is more likely. Those progressives who are mad about Gaza.

They’re not gonna vote for Donald Trump. Like They

might vote for Will Saletan.

They might vote for Jill stein. It’s true. But the Nikki Haley voters, could vote for Joe Biden, a percentage of them.

Sure. Some of them probably did. Many of them

probably did already. Well, for sure, many of them did. There’s no doubt that in that number, and I think people You can really over read the Nikki Haley numbers. Because if you don’t understand that a bunch of those people have been voting for Democrats, even though they’re right leaning independents and soft GOP voters, you’re over, over telling the story. But, you know, Wisconsin went for Biden by twenty thousand votes, So in terms of holding the anti trump coalition together, I I do re It’s certainly not bad news.

I’m not saying it’s everything, but I think it’s still worth looking at, and it’s very much worth being able to identify for me, right? Because I am in the in addition to the podcasting business, in addition to the peeling Republican ish voters off of Trump, That to me is a lot of it’s a lot to work with.

Speaking of which, I want Edgar taking this, but before we get to that, I wanted to also acknowledge your other cohost and your other podcast cheated on me with George Conway news story out today that he he’s given he gave the maximum donation almost a million dollars to Joe Biden. So you got in that podcast, George Conway explains it all to Sarah Longwell. There’s a lot of activism associated with with that podcast, I would say.

Yeah. I think that’s true. I mean, I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but neither George Conway nor I. And despite us being very different people, neither of us want Donald Trump to be the president again in a deep deep way. And,

I appreciate your commitment to that cause.

Yeah, thank you.

Wisconsin. One other thing I just wanna mention, Sarah. We took that, remember we took that, mail bag question on the board podcast from the person thinking I’m moving to George County. Don’t know if she moved her or not, but huge turnout for Nikki, thirteen and a half percent in Door County. Big numbers.

The unrequited, three, three percent Eggar, do you share Sarah’s optimism? I’m not sure that I do. So, you know, you feel feel free to tell at the that this is You don’t have to

give him permission to disagree with me. He he can do it on his own.

Don’t you? Big boy. He’s a big boy. Can does he can have his own opinions?

Well, I don’t know. I don’t know the best way to gloss all this. I do think it’s important that, you know, there’s a specific political aim for, like, now you got unrequited in my mind. I don’t even remember what

the what the actual word

was the unexpected vote. I mean, they’re they’re trying to accomplish a particular political purpose with that vote right now, which is not necessarily incompatible with them going back and voting for Biden in November. Whereas there really isn’t any kind of like organized drive on the republican side do anything other than kind of wait for Donald Trump to lock up this nomination. And, and I do think when you see these people still showing up and still pulling the lever for Haley, not even really that I mean, yes, I mean, we we we talk about like the crossover vote from Democrats and things like that. And that was a an important part of a lot of the early primaries.

There was actually kind of get the we talk about that primary pivot group where there was an actual organized effort to get Republicans to come out and boost Nikki Haley. I mean, that’s no longer happening. There’s no there’s no real purpose to any of that anymore. It’s just it’s just voters kind of showing up in their genuine feelings and and and and casting about somebody other than Trump. And that’s the thing that’s gonna be sticky, into November.

I mean, who knows what the geopolitical situation with the war in Gaza is gonna look like by the time the election actually rolls around, Biden has already, you know, pulled back significantly from his kind of early, very staunchly pro that Yahoo government kinda allyship there. So, you know, it does seem to me that that, you know, one of these problems on on Biden’s side could be shrinking, who knows what that will end up looking like by November, whereas the other is, is more just kind of this baseline dissatisfaction on the Republican side with these people still showing up for Haley.

We are gonna get to Gaza if you’re just buckle up folks. We

might just say one last thing on this, which is about enthusiasm.

Maggie, you my negative point, and then you can do it positive. Here’s my here’s why I’m negative on this. I’ve I’ve just been sitting here scrolling county to county. You know, Adam’s. We’re in rural, rural, Taylor, Rusk, Nickiote’s at seven three four.

Madison. Twenty four percent. Almost a quarter of the vote in Madison. I just I I don’t think that those people were Donald Trump voters. I I just don’t.

I I don’t I don’t know that that there’s any evidence that this six thousand six hundred forty two people that we’re adding to the to Joe Biden’s narrow victory in Wisconsin last time. And so I just don’t know how excited I’m supposed to get about people, but I think largely probably we’re not down

Oh, let me tell you. Can I tell you why you should be excited?

Please. I would love to be excited.

Okay. The reason is is that Joe Biden won Wisconsin last time. He has to hold Alright. That coalition together. Right?

He won it last time.

Donald Trump plays if he lied about that. I do like to, you know, we ignore is yesterday in as an event in Wisconsin Donald Trump talked about how how he won Wisconsin, which is obviously a lie and led to the storming of the capital, and that doesn’t make the newspaper we do mention that on this podcast.

He also did, that little press conference in front of all of those, cops wearing their uniforms. Yeah.

It was in Michigan. Yeah.

And I just is a throw away side thing. I I I think that police officers who stand with Donald Trump, there’s a lot of commentary about how, like, oh, they’re standing with this guy who has all these felonies. How about this is a guy who had people attack their brothers and sisters in blue? How about that? How about the fact that they didn’t care that those peoples, that those other cops’ lives were in danger?

Doesn’t seem, like people are standing on their thin blue line very well here back in the blue very efficiently anyway side side

thing.

Back back to Wisconsin. So so the two points that I would make is that joe Biden has to hold his anti trump coalition together and need to continue to win a place like Wisconsin’s a tipping point state. Like, he has got to win Wisconsin. The blue wall is the thing again, and that’ll take us to Nebraska here in a second. But like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, he has to win those, especially because I think he’s gonna struggle harder with Georgia and Nevada and and maybe even Arizona But the reason that I care so much is that when people show up at a they take the time to get off the couch, to go take time out of their day to vote against somebody, that’s an enthusiasm indicator.

That is a, I will take any minute that I’ve got to go vote against this guy. And you need to I think with this the negativity of this rematch and people feeling really like blah about it, to see that kind of enthusiasm to go out and like take a shot at Trump for no reason, that makes me feel good about where people’s enthusiasm to vote against him is currently.

I agree with that. I I agree that there’s an enthusiastic core of people that are excited to vote against Donald Trump. Yep. I’m worried that that is not the people that really kind of are gonna matter in the end. But I I I’ll take it.

I’ll take the pony. I’ll take it. I wanna move on to Nebraska. Donald Trump and Nebraska, Jim Pillen, were apparently inspired by Charlie Sykes Kirk. Oh, boy.

We’re really in the bad place. When when Charlie Kirk is dictating policy, but, Charlie pointed out that it’s not great. For Maga, and the coming Maga autocracy for Nebraska to divide its electoral votes, by congressional district. You might know, that Nebraska has five, electoral votes and that, there are three. They get two for the statewide They give two to the statewide winner and then one to each congressional district.

The Omaha Congressional District held by Don Bacon is very swingy. Joe Biden went it last time. So as a result, now the, Nebraska is looking at changing the nineteen ninety one law that, that divided up the electors and having it be a winner take all like all the other states. This is important for this reason. You mentioned the big blue wall there.

If Joe Biden, of of the swing states loses Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina loses the sun belt. Loses the heavily Hispanic states, but wins the upper Midwest Blue Wall, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, that takes them to a gentleman’s two hundred and sixty nine, not that nice electoral votes because that would send the election to into the house of representative If the if Nebraska does separate out its districts and he wins the Don Bacon district, which he should, that would take him to two seventy and make him the president of these United States. So significant. There is an offset though also that if Nebraska did this, then our friends in Maine where there’s a Democratic trifecta. It’s the other state where this which is the inverse of Nebraska, and it’s the same law, but there’s a rural red district that went for Donald Trump, Maine could change their laws and offset this, to make Maine winter take all Edgar.

What do you think that the machinations here? How important is this?

I guess I’m a little surprised it hadn’t been done or attempted before. I guess it’s just it’s it’s just the fact that Nebraska’s gotten a little redder while while Omaha has become swingier. I I mean, it and

the visionary, the vision of Charlie Kirk. Yeah.

Well, I mean, honestly, among the the Charlie Kirk things we’ve seen over the years, this this does not really break like the top ten of like like objection ability. I’m kind of like, oh

my god. Doesn’t break the top ten of this week.

Yeah. Exactly.

He was he was talking about how birth control make women depressed the week. We got that audio queued up for the for the other pod.

No. It’s the men they’re having sex with as on birth control that are making them depressed. Sorry.

So so so I I actually I don’t know. I was I meant to look this up this morning and then did not like the the the way the different legislative sessions overlap. Like are we a hundred percent sure that Maine would actually have the ability to respond in time to change their own?

I can field that question. Main is out of session, but both the governor and the legislature have the right to call special sessions in Maine. So, you know, so a I don’t know if you have any main listeners, but an excited core of state senators or or legislators in Maine could do this or the governor

Yeah. So I guess my basic read is it would just be kind of a a bummer like good for Charlie for trying to put points on the board for his team in a like sneaky legal way. But I, you know, I like the silliness of the map. I like the way it, it, it lets the the wonks and, the eggheads on Twitter do fun things with their predictions. I don’t know.

It’s, it’s, I don’t know what to what to say about it other than. It is bizarre to imagine flipping Omaha. I mean, I guess it’s sort of like Miami Dade, right, in two thousand, but it it would be kind of funny if if the twenty twenty four election came down to, Omaha and their zoo.

Do they have a nice zoo? They have

a really nice zoo.

Great steaks too. Here’s the thing. Five hours and ten minutes. That’s the time distance between when Charlie Kirk said this on his podcast and the governor of the state put out a statement being like, we should do this. And the story here is about the new wave of MAG activists to whom Republicans feel enormously beholden.

And enormously responsive to. And I think that the the the big story is just like Charlie Sykes, who sits I mean, look, and I’m not I think we should all be allowed to be Mona Charen and unkempt on our political podcasts because, you know, We’re not here to be leave that to Hollywood. Okay? We’re here for our ideas. You’re here to to to deal with our brains, but still this kid looks like know, he’s been run over by a tractor, just sits there spewing nonsense, and he is in the driver’s seat on a lot of Republican policy.

And so the fact that Republic, the Republican governor, who it was nice to have a reason to learn the name of the Nebraska governor, which is I didn’t know. Dylan? Jim Pillin. Good to know, that he he’s listening to Charlie Kirk and the Charlie Kirk is giving directions. To me, that was the the big takeaway.

Agree with Agris is not a particularly alarming suggestion by Charlie Sykes. It’s kind of a logic suggestion, but just the fact that there are state governors that are responding to him. You know, I I don’t that probably doesn’t say good things about access to birth control in red states, for example, if if, governors are gonna be just so responsive to Charlie Kirk and his weird Can

I do one thing

Please? To

push back Jonathan Last tiny bit? Cause I I do agree that it’s it’s completely alarming. I You’d want to see like a control group, right? Because I mean, I think part of the reason why there’s this quick reaction time is because you see a guy like pill and who sees a post like that and is like Oh, well actually I I totally do agree with that on merits. It is just just like free points for our team.

It’s it’s above board. You know, it’s it’s it’s it’d be political, but it’d be fair for us to do that. I mean, and and so Trump

would love me for it.

Right.

And and whereas when when Charlie Kirk, for instance, goes on like a weak long crusade about how we shouldn’t any longer celebrate the legacy of Martin Luther King Junior. That’s not exactly the kind of thing that that you get like the a institutional Republican party lining up to be like, yeah, let’s let’s get rid of that as a national holiday. You know what I mean? There

there are a handful of people that are that were intrigued But that’s Well,

I didn’t see anything from Billing about it at least.

They even had Jim Billing. Okay. Well, we’re gonna test something out here about just how responsive politicians are to podcast hosts. And I think it’d be healthy for Democratic politicians to be less responsive to podcast hosts, but also Agree. It’s time to fight.

So Janet Mills, looking at you right now. You have five hours from the posting of this podcast. Let’s get this thing happening in Maine. Alright? Let’s let’s just clean this thing up.

We don’t have to wait for Nebraska. Just we can make sure to unify Maine’s electoral votes to ensure do our part to protect us from a Donald Trump autocracy Janet Mills. We’re watching you here at the next level podcast. Do you know who Janet Mills is, Sarah?

I do know.

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We’re gonna discuss the descent into fascism. Jonathan Last, who’s not here on this podcast this week, which I know people are sad about. We’re gonna represent him. In spirit by discussing his newsletter, his newsletter created quite a stir on the right wing internet. Luckily, I’m on spring break, so I didn’t get to spend that much as much time as I usually do on right wing Twitter.

But I did catch it out of the corner of my eye. A few people that were upset with Jonathan. His take was this. If Trump win he’ll run for a third term and the Republican Party and the Supreme Court will let him subtle. It’s a subtle take there.

Sarah Longwell and Jonathan sometimes argue about things. What was your what is your take? Do you think that is true? If Donald Trump becomes the president that he will run again in twenty twenty eight and the public party in the Supreme Court will let him?

No. Probably not. Probably not.

Probably not. Probably not. I mean, the let the the letter of the law on

this is pretty clear. I’m interested actually. Can you before I tell you what I think, can you tell I missed the right wing Twitter reaction to what he said? What was it?

Oh, JBL has TDS. JBL’s a grifter. J. Blah blah blah blah blah. JBL’s brain has been broken by Donald Trump blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

blah blah blah. This isn’t

really gonna happen, even though that there was an article pushing for this in the American Conservative magazine.

Let me give JBL his his due. Because what JBO, where he sort of like pointed for his shot, right? When he like put his finger up and said, I’m go it’s going here. What he said was, at some point, there’s gonna be a movement to eliminate the twenty second amendment and to say that Donald Trump can be president for infinitum.

And who was right about that?

And he was right about that. Right? The American conservative came out with, a a whole long piece about how Donald Trump should be allowed to do this. Why should we ignore the will of the people? If somebody, if a president after four year hiatus, you know, as some time out, is so popular and so ex people are so excited to have them back that that they are reelected.

Why shouldn’t they get another consecutive term. So,

so just really quick while we are giving his his due. Other things that he was right about that these butt boys on the internet were not right about, include the fact that Donald Trump was going to attempt a coup that he was gonna try to stay in power even if he loses. Yep. And, that the Republican Party was gonna go along with that. That’s another thing that he said that, over the national review is never know.

No. Sorry. No. That is actually what ended up happening. And then he said that Donald Trump is gonna that they are not gonna convict him.

And then the Donald Trump is gonna run for president again, and everyone is gonna get behind him. And everyone when he said that with all the right wing vloggers at the corner. We’re like, no. That’s no. It’s over.

He’s at Mitch McConnell said we were finally rid of the bastard to Jonathan Martin for his book. And, he was writing about that. And so, you know, that’s just those are some interesting facts to maybe con con consider when you when you look into a crystal ball here.

And this is why as I fight with JBL, I am mindful. That my optimism has been crushed by

reality over and over and over again.

And so I’m more circumspect before tussling with JBL. Now, I will say though JBL often takes these very definitive positions, that I think striped just a little so for example, I’ll just tell you where JBL’s been wrong. I love doing this when he’s not here. We should have a whole segment when he’s not here. Sorry buddy.

You’re not here. Let’s all let’s JBL is always wrong segment. That’s what

you kept for going on spring break, bro.

Yeah. But he was like, we’re always like, Ron DeSantis is gonna drop out before Iowa. You know, he had this all to sit and I was like, no, he’s gotta he’s gonna go through Iowa. Well, campaign. So, you know, it’s like things like that.

Sometimes JBL can just go just a little bit extra. But that’s what makes his newsletter exciting. And he’s directionally correct about the level of acquiescence. And I actually I thought this newsletter It was a good trick down memory lane about all of the big moments when Republicans rationalized their way out of accountability for Trump. And so I think that taking his broader point, that there’s no reason that we should be so certain that the institutional right will not do everything they can to do whatever Donald Trump wants.

I think he’s right about that. Where I think I’m not sure he’s right is the idea that the Supreme Court lets that happen. I mean, he he he kinda uses as evidence of that. Like, He’s basically got me convinced that the institutional right, including, the political class Will Saletan we’ll we’ll start making this argument. Oh, it was stolen from Trump.

He was treated so unfairly. I don’t think the Supreme Court upholds him. I still have a decent amount of faith in the Supreme

Brett Kavanaugh. Beer.

Just not going just not going totally off the rails. I I I don’t think so. And I don’t think so.

I’m gonna give this free quote disaster point at the end of this. But I wanna engage Edgar first on just the principle. Andrew Edgar, here’s my question. What do you think is the percent chance that if Donald Trump wins that he that what JBL says is right? That he would run-in twenty twenty eight and that people would essentially go along with it.

I think the percent chance is very low. I’m not a math guy. I’m gonna Is it two percent? Five or two?

Five or

ten percent is too high even. I I think it’s I think it’s look. Three percent. So I I I completely agree with with Sarah Longwell, say two, three percent. Something like that.

That’s pretty high. Yeah. Well, that’s pretty that’s too high. It’s higher than it’s been. I mean, it’s higher than it’s been historically.

Like, since FDR left. It’s it’s certainly the highest it’s been.

Just a percent chance that every domino lines up correctly and he is like

Actually, maybe not that every single domino in the news is crazy, but that he the dial the dial tone would through some various level of machinations be on the ballot in twenty twenty that he would try to run or that he would for the elections. I don’t know who the hell knows.

The difficulty I have with the question is that I I struggle to see psychologically why Donald Trump would want to run again if he wins because first of all, he will be insanely old by then. But so much of his rationale for running in twenty twenty four was the complete inability to get over not being able to be a loser to Biden in twenty twenty, needing to relitigate that, needing to stay out of jail. He doesn’t really have like a a substantial political project that he’s like dying to like, you know, go to his last breath, bringing about for America, it seems.

You don’t think that the Democrat, whoever that would be, that would emerge in twenty twenty seven or twenty twenty eight, would run on a platform of wanting to jail Donald Trump. Because I do.

I guess that’s possible. Yeah. I don’t know. You you think so?

Well, for starters, I think that you will have one and then pardoned himself. And then I think it’s pretty safe. We can all agree on this. Pretty safe to assume that he’ll probably do some more crimes between twenty twenty five and twenty twenty eight when he’s the president. I think that’s pretty clear that’ll probably do some more cars.

I don’t know. Who knows? Maybe I’ll just decide to golf and, like, be so happy that he won that I’ll just golf and, like, whatever. Just hang out. I think he’ll probably not.

Probably he’ll do more crimes. And so The

one other psychological point that I wanna make though is less about trump and more about the the base, which is that, and I was I was you know, covering campaigns full time through the whole basically the the whole primary cycle has existed such as it was before I came over here. And very routinely, I mean, I think it’s easy to under count the amount of support that Trump got in this election in particular from Republican voters who, had kind of imbibed his, his idea that a, his first term was kind of It was kind of mean what they did to him, you know, throughout all that. He didn’t get as much stuff off the ground as as he should have. But b, he was really robbed in twenty twenty because he he he didn’t lose that election, they all think. And and and so a lot of voters found that a very persuasive reason not to even really think about other alternatives in the primary, you know, who would potentially perhaps have been Ron DeSantis people or or, you know, whoever else they promised swami people.

They’re like, well, no, look. Like, this is still trump’s year. He needs his second term. He deserves his second term. But these are still people who are thinking in terms of presidents have two terms, right?

Think that’s all fair. I wanna throw this out. I I think that’s all fair. I took I I think it’s all fair and practical and wise even. I’ll say this though.

You forget how long all this stuff is. And so this is my JBL. This is my most full throated defensive JBL who I I I think obviously was was being a little definitive. But my my point is the the the questions, the gray area here, when it comes to Donald Trump, just consider this. If Andrew Edgar and I were on a podcast and Sarah Longwell, in April April third of twenty sixteen.

And we said, And I said to you, what is the percent chance that Donald Trump wins this election in twenty sixteen? Because the president loses in twenty twenty. Tries to stay in power and a mob of people storm the capital attempting to assassinate his vice president. I mean, I would know what I would have said then. Zero percent.

Zero percent. One percent. No. But Two percent.

All of that. And then the Republican Party wants him back.

Like, we would

have been, like, absolutely not.

And I had TDS. Yeah. In April of twenty sixteen, I was, like, the the the spokesperson for the Republicans against Trump movement, literally. And so and I would have said zero percent. So anyway, this is not to say that what everything that JBL says is gonna turn out.

But when you have someone such as Donald Trump, who has autocratic aspirations who has just the worst imaginable character who is going to be fighting jail. I think for the rest of his days no matter what happens. Who the fuck knows what he’ll do? And he gets older and more deranged? All this, who the fuck knows what he’s gonna do?

And and and then there’s always the JBL point about. And then I think the Supreme Court would do the right thing probably too. I’m with Sarah on this. But then what? Then it’s like, okay.

The marshal of the Supreme Court’s gonna arrest Donald Trump. Now we get back into that territory. Right? I I this is all fantasy porn. It’s all it’s all t but, like, It’s fantasy porn because we’re in a situation where, like, all of that is on the table.

None of them has ever been on the table before. None of that has been on the table since the civil war. I at, you know, with the FDR situation accepted. Like, none of that has been on the table, and it’s all on the table. So, like, you know, the people who are just absolutely not JBL.

You’ve had your brain broken. Well, they’ve been wrong for nine years, and we’re in unprecedented times. So that’s my defensive JBL. I don’t know, Sarah, if you had any.

Yeah. You know, well, I will just say that what was the famous line about nine eleven? It was we suffered from a failure to imagine. And like at this point, we are not doing our jobs. We’re not I mean, like, if if you don’t sit and think about the potential problems that could arise, like, you’re ignoring everything that we’ve been faced with over the last seven years that yes, of course, we thought couldn’t happen because of institutions and norms and, boy, this stuff just doesn’t happen, so it can’t happen.

And we should not suffer from a failure to imagine now. And I think it’s good even if JBL, I think, has, you know, some sort of misses at the margins with how extremely it is, like, again, directionally correct in the idea that we should at no point discount what Donald Trump will want to do and what the Republican Party will let him do.

Andrew, any final thoughts on that before we get really into into the the bad place?

No. I mean, I think we we run-in morning shots a couple days ago, maybe yesterday about, there was piece up of the Bulwark about the possibility of this upcoming election. Trump trying to steal it again essentially through, essentially just having state legislators, assume control over over the, appointment of electors rather than giving them to the, to the whoever

wins the popular vote

in those states, which you know, they could do, under under the apparatus of the constitution. There’s nothing preventing that from happening. And I think like, it is true. Like like I already said why I think all these things are are extremely unlikely. But like you say one of the one of the annoying things about the present moment is that you really have to think about things in in terms of what’s actually excluded by by you know the the real curves.

And I do think, you know, the Supreme Court, the the the text of that amendment as you say, if if the words on the page mean anything, it’s excluded. But I guess that’s that’s,

Are you ready for this idea? How about this? How about Donald Trump says that he only will endorse a candidate in twenty twenty eight who agrees to make him vice president. Because the vice president, the vice it’s not quite as clear. We I’ve I’ve had a I’ve had extended a side chain with some legal experts and some Obama people who, who believe that, like, It’s really not so clear that Joe Biden couldn’t name Vobrokamov vice president.

Like, it’s pretty clear. Like, the intent is pretty clear, but it’s not we it’s sort of closer to the fourteenth amendment situation than the twenty second amendment situation. So, you know, anyway, it’s what Putin did.

My overwhelming feeling about all this is Like, let’s just get the collection. Like, let’s get the twenty four. Okay. Then we’ll deal with what

I’d like to be Alright. So we’re slowly descending. Okay. Good.

And I would like to see some humility from the National Review crowd, the crowd that suggests that none of these things could ever happen. Because they’ve been wrong literally all the time.

If you’ve been wrong for an entire decade about what the Republican party is gonna do, then just like leave a little bit of openness to the fact that maybe you’re wrong again. Wanna talk about Gaza. There was a I know. Sorry. But, the Israeli government did an UPS on the IDF killed, seven people that were part of the world central kitchen, the Jose Andre’s operation, three britons of Palestinian, a US Canadian dual citizen, a pull in an Australian, I I feel like this bears mentioning.

So they were in a world health kitchen vehicle that was hit by a missile Then they left the vehicle, got into another car, which was hit by another missile. And then the third car in the convoy approached to pick up the occupants of the second car, and that was hit by a third missile. Stri killed all of the workers in that convoy.

I think you get to do oops on one vehicle. I think on three, I’m not sure you’d get.

Yeah. I’m not a military expert. This is progress. It’s not gonna be about, like, the Israeli strategy here and and what exactly to do how to implement a strategy. I just I do think that what I wanna get to here is political implications, and when you have a situation where you fire three missiles at people that are providing food volunteer service to an an area that is at risk of famine.

You know, that’s something that you gotta answer for and and, you’re gonna and that is gonna cause downstream effects. One of those downstream effects statement put out by the White House Joe Biden said he was outraged and heartbroken by the killings, demands a swift investigation to them that would bring accountability, And the findings that investigation must be made public. This is not a stand alone incident. He says, etcetera, etcetera. Look, I I just I think that there was a period of time when I want what what I wanna bring this up is, I think that the maybe probably the last time we discussed this issue in this podcast, there was a sense that, like, this is bad.

The situation is bad for Biden. It’s bad for Israel. Obviously, the Hamas actions are bad. It’s just bad all around. But you know, maybe by November, by the fall, this will not so much be a front of my issue anymore.

It will be a back burner issue. I don’t really feel that way anymore. And, it doesn’t seem like there is a a plan out of this. And I think that Joe Biden is in a pretty tough spot. Where he’s now got I think it’s gonna be very hard to appease the people that are the people that are calling him genocide Joe and the activists with statements such as this and every statement such of this such as this creates more distance from people that are wanting him to be stalwart with Israel.

And even though Joe Biden is has hit the sweet spot on this issue for Tim Miller, I think that he’s in the sour spot politically on it. So I don’t know. I open it up to either of you.

Well, I’ll say this. I don’t know if you caught the focus Secret Podcast that I did with, one Andrew Edgar.

I did. It was a great episode. It was checking. And it was another depressing episode because just like the degree of addiction to TikTok and how people are like mindlessly repeating TikTok. Talking points, and, like, any activist organization in the world would dream of having their users and their followers repeat their talking points just as mindlessly as the TikTok users repeated the TikTok talking points.

It was like shocking.

And they have such a bi partisan.

Yes.

Devotion. They were, like, they were,

like, liberal TikTok users were, like, what about the small business owners? I was, like, what? It’s, like, it’s

Yeah. The young conservatives are like, you know, they make their free speech. This is, you know, how can you let in the lives? And everybody’s in for the conspiracy theories. So anyway, just different ones.

But but that’s we were focused on TikTok for the episode, and Andrew was awesome on the episode. His analysis was great. But what we we didn’t play as much of, where there was a few snippets, but was super clear in the group of young progressives. They had all voted for Biden in twenty twenty, the people, and they were only about half the group. Was willing to say they were voting for Biden this time around.

They weren’t voting for Trump, and it wasn’t because he was gonna ban TikTok. It was because of Gaza, and they were getting a lot of their Gaza information from TikTok, and there was this sense among when they had their like, for a lot of it, it’s about like, well, this is information they don’t want us to have. They’re like, well, you know, they don’t want us to know about what’s happening in Gaza, and TikTok is where I get my information about Gaza. And I I’m obviously understood for a while about the fact that this situation presents a real challenge for Joe Biden, but I had been sort of sanguine as you had about the idea that, like, this is gonna shift. Like, it’s not gonna stay like this.

And I don’t think it’s too late now for it to shift, but I do think that like, look, I have such a pedestrian understanding of the Israel Gaza thing. So, I’m not an expert. I want Joe Biden to do the right thing, not just the political thing. When it comes to the situation in Israel and Gaza. That being said, I think it is a political catastrophe for him if it continues direct like this way.

I also feel less certain than I might have three months ago that we’re still doing the right thing. The it’s not just that this can’t go on for political reasons. It’s just that, like, at some point, the loss of life overall becomes intolerable. Right? The situation becomes overall intolerable, which is not to say that that the Israelis were not absolutely justified in a major response after October seventh, and aren’t still completely justified in figuring out how to obliterate Hamas.

But like we are in a situation now where the, you know, you’re seeing aid workers get murdered. And I think I think not just for these voters that I’m listening to, but for me, when you see it, I start to be like, man. Yeah. People who like me who I think are pretty I’m pretty like on a gut level pro Israel, and certainly anti Hamas terrorist. But I’m like, man, Joe.

I don’t know. I don’t know how long you can we can just stand by while this is happening because I think we can’t.

Yeah. And the famine aside of that, and this is why it ties with the World Central Kitchen. Mean, like, they’re they’re real we are really at at serious danger of not just now people dying in Gaza because of missiles, but dying because of starvation. And so if we’re killing the aid workers that are just bringing food. Right.

You know, again, that that helps that that is why this is so important as a both, a political issue and effects on the ground issue, as as, you know, exacerbating the problem. Anyway, Andrew.

Much like Sarah. I mean, this is not my bailiwick at all, foreign policy. I mean, I I it it it it seems to me that there was kind of like a a normie case that was intelligible to the average voter in the wake of October seven. Why Israel needed to go in, and and, you know, prevent something like that from happening again in in a in a war term war term region where they have tons of enemies, you know, they they needed strength and they needed to, you know, root out Hamas and they needed to do all of these things. There is still an intelligible case for why Israel continues to need to to prosecute their war.

But it is not that like gut level thing that’s just kind of like obvious, to to people. I mean, it’s it’s you have to get into the all the the just war theory. You have to get into the acceptable risk. You have to say, okay, Hamas started this war. Israel has a right to prosecute its military objective, which is rooting out Hamas and Hamas, is is calculating, that that they their strategy is to to hide in the civilian population and to hide in among aid workers and among hospitals and all of these things and and and ratchet up that international pressure in order to get everybody to hate Israel and you can’t

blame Israel for that. I mean, this

is the intellectual case. And I don’t know. I mean, like, that’s the these are kind of the the the presets of who’s at fault in war that that underpin a lot of our international law and so it’s hard for me as a guy and just a lay person to be like, well, you know, they can’t do that. But at the same time, I mean, you cannot at all be surprised when the average person who looks at this stuff, I mean, they look at the facts on the ground in Gaza right now. They see, you know, not only that, that, you know, two thirds of the strip has been bombed into rubble already with with, you know, basically a million refugees clustered into Raffa and and Netanyahu now continuing to say they’re they’re planning to go in and and take care of Raffa too and the possibility of mass starvation and the the blockades of of aid getting in.

And now look at a flashpoint story like this where you have this group, this this world central kitchen convoy that was coordinating with the IDF that was that was saying, okay, here’s where we’re gonna be. And don’t bum us. I mean, that’s why they’re doing that. They’re doing that specifically to say, this is what we’re doing. This is our itinerary.

There were in clearly marked vehicles. So so, I mean, again, like from a normal point of view, even if it were true, which it did not end up being true, that there was some Hamas operative, like, who had gotten in the car with them that the IDF really wanted to take care of, how they make the moral case that, okay, sorry. You had a Hamas operative with you. So we need to bomb you. When these are the only people who are have even one finger and one leak in the die of mass starvation in that region.

How do you sell that, to the country when you’re buying bombs? I mean, like, it’s it’s

can I say, like, what I wanna see from Joe Biden, right? Okay. They put out a statement. Sure. But like Joe Biden can’t be a bystander, right, in this in this conflict.

I I I think it is unfair to blame Joe Biden. I think it’s a fair to call him genocide joke. He’s not committing genocide. He didn’t start this war and, you know, and and we have a responsibility to other democracies, but also If we are going to help provide funds or munitions, we are part of this, and we have power in the situation. And I think that we should exercise that power toward an end that is because look, here’s what Hamas needs to do.

They need to release the rest of the Israeli hostage. It’s like the problem is is that you know, everybody who calls for ceasefires and everything just sort of like forgets the idea that Hamas took hostages that they have continued to rape and torture and in some cases kill And so, like, they need to release all the hostages. But, like, where are we in a high profile way, like, getting to that end. Like, I think we should, like, that’s about people coming to the table, that’s about people negotiating. And I I think we’ve we’ve gotta figure out how Biden’s gotta figure out and the administration how to take a more high profile role in looking like he is trying to resolve this as opposed to just letting it go on indefinitely.

Tony Lincoln’s been pretty good on that, but it’s been a lot of behind the scene. And he’s done some public stuff. We could we could use more templates.

Well, and can I can I say one thing about I mean, at because I’ve been at the White House press briefing where they’ve gone back and forth and back and forth on this? And they, you know, they’re trying to lead with trying to say, you know, look, we’re we we are working very hard to get to temporary ceasefire that would hopefully roll over into permanent fire and it is true that the the biggest concrete obstacle to that is Hamas continuing to refuse to release these hostages and and Biden and and his administration have taken what seems like a pretty righteous line in saying like, okay, until that happens, how are you going to expect us to really put pressure on Israel to stop doing this. But at a certain point, I mean, like, you kind of have to contemplate the question of Does the Hamas strategy end up working? I mean, like, like, is it actually true that their calculation is correct, that there is an amount of collateral damage just unacceptable to to even Biden in the White House, even even people who are staunch pro Israel allies just because the the situation becomes so grim and grisly that at a certain point you have to essentially negotiate with terrorists and and I mean, I again, I’m I’m very happy that I am not at the table myself.

I mean, it’s a it’s such a grisly horrible, situation for so many reasons.

Yeah. One more thing I just wanna mention on the politics of this. And this is just, again, such a tragedy I don’t hope that there’s no sense of of glibness, and and mentioning and and saying it was an oops because it was just a tragic horrific oops that is going to I think reverberate. And I I was just pulling this up. The the sixty minutes report on Abu Graeb came out April of two thousand four.

So this time, the two thousand four election, obviously, bush ends up still winning, but I this feels like the kind of thing that can reverberate as that did. Right? Like, you had, like, the the the general disaster, the general humanitarian disaster obviously has has landed with certain folks, particularly those on the activist progress was left particularly younger folks, but, you know, broadening out to get people that that have been more directionally sympathetic to Israel to start to have concerns. Like, this is the kind of thing that can do it in the same way that I would grave did for Iraq, and and I think that I I mentioned this always when this stuff comes up that it’s not just kids, right? It’s like, basically anybody younger than Sarah, Sorry, Sarah Longwell, doesn’t remember US military successes.

Like, doesn’t. Like, just do we don’t have any Right? And so when you’re coming, like, I have a lot of people that that sometimes email me that are more pro Israel when I when I express these concerns, they’re like, well, you know, Did we have a did we have a plan for Germany post World War two? Like, no. We did what we had to do to win the war, and then you deal with it.

And it’s like, okay. Yeah. But but I a huge it’s not just eight TikTok kits. Like, basically, everybody up till middle age is, like, I’m sorry. Like, I don’t have a lot of I I the trust But, you know, the trust that will take care of this, that we’re gonna do that the military leadership is gonna do the right thing.

I I, like, that trust has has withered over the past couple decades. And so when you’re cut when when Israel and and Joe Biden, working with Israel cannot enunciate a, okay, here is the plan, right, for how we’re gonna stop the tragedy and get to some sort of temporary solution or or semi permanent solution, then people start to, like, look at the the tragedy and say, I’m just not sure this is this is gonna be worth it any And so I think that is that adds to the political risk here. So anywho, that is the next level for this week. JBL will be back next week and so it’ll be so much more flipping. Well, he’s so much happier with JBL around.

He’s just a ray of sunshine, as you guys all know, Andrew Edgar. Make sure you’re checking out his morning shots newsletter is wonderful listening to him and Sarah on the Focus Group podcast. We also have another announcement. If you if you haven’t had enough of this uplifting episode of me and Sarah, we are back together. No, Eggar on the Secret Podcast on Friday that usually it’s Sarah Longwell.

So if you guys are not a board plus member, and you want to hear me and a talk about women’s basketball and other more fun stuff. Let’s do it. This is your moment. Become a board plus member. We’re back on Friday on the Secret Podcast, you know, we’re gonna keep it light and breezy.

Catch me tomorrow on the board, Todd.