Support The Bulwark and subscribe today.
  Join Now

DeSantis DeSpirals Downward

July 12, 2023
Notes
Transcript

The key whistleblower the GOP has been touting as a smoking gun against President Biden, along with his son Hunter, has been charged with failing to register as a foreign asset for China. And Tucker Carlson plans to host a forum without Trump. Will it do anything to save DeSantis’ floundering campaign?

Plus, what do Trump 2016-Biden 2020 voters think of the state of the country? Will they be Trump 2024 voters soon? Sarah gives some Focus Group insight to the gang.

Watch the gang record this episode here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkpFXXUSQAk

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:05

    Hello, everyone. Welcome to the next level. I’m j v l here with
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:09

    my
  • Speaker 3
    0:00:09

    best friends. Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller, we’re gonna do a show that is under ninety minutes today. Just a just a warning. We’re not gonna do any of that crazy stuff
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:19

    eighty nine and a half.
  • Speaker 4
    0:00:20

    So, wait, people were mad at were people mad at us for our takes last week?
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:23

    Yep. They were a little bit mad at the takes one. That’s okay. Dis gentlemanly disagreements with the Bulwark is all about. They were Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:00:29

    They were all born. They’re like, just two hours.
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:32

    I Every listener disagrees with Jacob.
  • Speaker 3
    0:00:34

    Have that. Because I’m this is This is like Ross and Rachel or or Sam and Diane. The audience wants them to get together. Right? But they need them not to get together.
  • Speaker 4
    0:00:48

    Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:00:49

    You want it to be two hours, but you need it not to be two. Trust me. Trust me, I know what I’m doing.
  • Speaker 4
    0:00:54

    You need it not to be two hours.
  • Speaker 3
    0:00:57

    Gal Luffed. Let’s talk about the ballad of GAL Luffed.
  • Speaker 4
    0:01:03

    A bad guy in, like, one of the Rocky movies?
  • Speaker 3
    0:01:06

    No. He’s a a great patriot, got dual citizenship with Israel and America.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:12

    He’s too beta to be a bad guy in a rocky movie. He’d be a bad guy in like a weird like independent sci fi movie. He doesn’t have enough muscles.
  • Speaker 3
    0:01:23

    Has written a couple pieces for National Review is the co director of a very important Washington think tank the hold on. I wanna make sure I get the name of this right. The Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, which if you go to their web page, absolutely does not look like something that was thrown up under the cover of night to never be
  • Speaker 4
    0:01:43

    used or viewed
  • Speaker 3
    0:01:44

    by actual human beings it does not have a valid security certificate even, like, you know, depending on what browser you’re using, the browser will try to block you from going there saying, hey, hold on a minute. But is it really the browser or is it the deep state?
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:59

    It’s probably smart from your browser. Given the given the China connections, you’re about to, like, TikTok s secured I
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:05

    don’t wanna filibuster this.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:06

    Here are
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:07

    the two important things you need to know. The Republicans have been touting Galleluft as their key secret witness. In the entire Hunter Biden drama. This is the guy who was the whistleblower, who had disappear remember, they talked about their disappearing witnesses and they just Gel Luf is also the guy who was tested and charged by the Department of Justice for being a Chinese spy. Also an arms dealer, also a guy trying to help violate the sanctions act against Iran, etcetera.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:38

    It’s a yada yada yada. These two things are in concert. And last week, Gal Loved, who is a fugitive from justice, and who is running from the law recorded a fourteen minute video which he sent to the New York Post.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:54

    Did you watch all fourteen minutes? Because I That
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:56

    is where I would trigger things that I had the important whistle blowing things. I would give them to the New York Post. I would not go to your agent’s France press or your associated press or your failing New York Times.
  • Speaker 4
    0:03:11

    Well, this is where they went with the Hunter Biden story to start.
  • Speaker 3
    0:03:14

    Yeah. So he went that and and said that, basically, he dared the Department of Justice to unseal the indictment against him. And so that’s that’s what DOJ just they did that. So we now
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:27

    have the Go.
  • Speaker 3
    0:03:28

    We now have the indictment And it’s amazing, and the entire story is amazing. And as always, projection is the sincerest form of Trumpism. Tim would you like to go first?
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:40

    Sure. I wanna add a fact at the top here that I think is important for everybody to understand before we go dunking on Gale and and making fun of all this because this is what all of your your Nancy Maces, your quote unquote good Republicans, your, you know, our friends at the media outlet we won’t mention, they’re they’re all gonna focus on this and say you never Trump cucks. Don’t want to acknowledge the fact that the group, the Chinese energy group, and the Chinese oligarch that Gal was conspiring with is also the same company that Hunter Biden was consulting for. And that is a true fact. And, you know, I didn’t think that the that the blind repairman was gonna be real and he was and so I’m always I’m just open to who it is very possible that Hunter Biden and Gal love we’re both we’re both working illegally with the Chinese and not registering on Fera.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:38

    I’m open to that possibility. Just think it’s important to acknowledge that for context. Is that gal comes to the FBI in twenty nineteen, and he says, hey, I’m doing some consulting for these Chinese guys. It’s totally on the up and up, but I’ve gotta I’ve gotta tip. I’ve got a tip that Hunter Biden is also doing some stuff from them that is that is not on the up and up, that is illegal, and that there’s bribery.
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:04

    The Chinese guys told me.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:05

    Chinese guys told me.
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:06

    They told me about all of this bad stuff they’re doing with Hunter Biden.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:09

    And Joe Biden is involved. And this is the key point. This is why Gal Louvre is is was supposedly the key witness for for Jimmy Comer. Because throughout all this nonsense, Joe Biden, like, besides the one vague email about the ten for the big guy. Joe Biden has been implicated enough like it’s been all a hunter.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:25

    And so Gal was like, I’m the one that can prove the Joe Biden and was in on this. And the big accusation was gonna be that the Chinese were manipulating hunter to get to Joe and Joe’s contacts in the government including the one eyed man. We’ll get to in a second. And and so Here’s the big problem with that story though. Gal was doing all the things that he accused us to under.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:50

    He said There is evidence.
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:51

    And the stuff I’m doing with the Chinese government operatives of this energy company. Totally okay guys. Don’t worry. I’m on the up and up. It’s only a hunter who’s doing the bad things.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:01

    So this is the key. This is really where where you get just down to the bones of this. Like ignore all of the arms dealing and all the other shady shit this guy was doing. He has Chinese money that he’s using to pay former CID director James Woolsey, allegedly, or someone on Donald Trump’s transition team to put out pro China white papers and propaganda and and, you know, in various outlets and try to influence the incoming administration friendlier to China. This is literally what Ron Johnson and James Comer and all those guys are like, we’re so worried that this happened to Biden.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:37

    We’re so worried that the Chinese were paying off Hunter and they’re manipulating Biden into being nice to China. But there’s no fucking evidence of that. Joe Biden hasn’t done anything nice to China. There is direct evidence. The gal loofed paid off somebody on Trump’s transition team in order to influence them positively for China.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:59

    And by the way, the Turks did that through Michael Flynn. Obviously, the Russians were doing that. This is evident. Remember the RNC platform that changed the platform related to Russia and Ukraine, the Russians were doing that. All of these accusations are things we know that happened in in the Trump administration.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:17

    So I would listen to these assholes that are trying to say that there’s there there with Hunter and Joe. If they could either Ron DeSantis that there’s one Iota of evidence that Joe was involved, or b, if they would say in the same breath, by the way. Pretty concerning that the guy leading the Republican primary, it’s now proven was influenced by three countries back then during the transition, and now is in wide open for all of us to see being influenced by MBS. So anyway, there’s my rationale.
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:47

    Sarah, you look mildly incredulous. Board? I’m not bored.
  • Speaker 4
    0:07:51

    I’m not bored. I I will say there are certain
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:53

    We could talk about the one eyed man.
  • Speaker 4
    0:07:56

    I want you to because I will tell you, this is I’m gonna I have very little to say, because there are certain stories that I just decide. I’m not gonna follow. Like, I’m not gonna learn about this. There’s too much. And at some point, I have people who email me.
  • Speaker 4
    0:08:11

    Don’t know how this guy got my email address. There’s like a dude who emails me all the time, and he’s just like, you guys are ignoring the Hunter Biden stuff. And I’m like, you know, I swear. You guys listen to me, you get mad at me when I go, you know, when I’m not always onside, And like, if it’s true that Hunter Biden and Joe Biden is implicated, then I will I’ll I’m there on it. Like, I’m not gonna just reflexively defend him.
  • Speaker 4
    0:08:36

    But this story has always been too complicated and too many weird Like, there’s too much weird stuff so I just I’ve decided not to follow it. And you know what else I didn’t follow? The Rachel Madau, like, mockinations around the Russians when it was Trump. Like, my only position is like let Robert Mueller do his investigation. Do not fire him like you did James Comey.
  • Speaker 4
    0:09:00

    That’s the rule of law. That’s what you do. And all the rest of it, like, Derapowski or, you know, all these I was like, who can follow this? Who can?
  • Speaker 2
    0:09:08

    Well, I can. Good good for you. Someone has to on this podcast do a day job.
  • Speaker 4
    0:09:12

    Well, eventually, I read the report when it came out and I’ll read whatever report these guys come up with too on Hunter. But I cannot I cannot follow all this, but I got a question for you Tim. Actually, no, JBL. JBL, you were very good Everything I know about this, I know from reading your trial today.
  • Speaker 3
    0:09:28

    You read it?
  • Speaker 4
    0:09:29

    I did. Oh. So here’s the thing, Donald Trump, though, wasn’t like he was always weird about China. Right? Because he was mean about China often.
  • Speaker 4
    0:09:43

    But then, one of the things I do remember that always stuck out to me was the John Bolton accusation that Donald Trump when told about the Uighur genocide in the concentration camps. Basically was like, that’s fine. Like, he’s remember remember that? Yeah. And so is that that the kind of influence they were trying to peddle?
  • Speaker 4
    0:10:01

    Because he, you know, did call the pandemic. It was the China virus the whole time. So Trump has sort of a complicated mixed bag.
  • Speaker 3
    0:10:07

    This is after when the pandemic came came about after talking about when it first started president Xi is doing such a tremendous job on all this. Right? This is the weirdness of nobody has ever been as chummy with a Chinese dictator as Donald Trump was, and yet Republicans run around screaming about China. This is you know, I Honestly, one of the things I thought that was good that came from the last six years is I thought we finally had bipartisan consensus on China. The China’s really bad and a threat, and finally, Democrats and Republicans are on the same side about it, except that you have these these again, Guys like Galuff and running around trying to make money in China.
  • Speaker 4
    0:10:45

    And this is their witness. Right? This is the this is the witness. This is the way This is the only guy they’ve got. So this is the guy who said the big guy, because I’ve had a lot of people emailing me being like you’re ignoring that there is a whistleblower.
  • Speaker 4
    0:10:55

    There’s not somebody in the IRS, there’s not like whistleblower?
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:58

    Yeah. There’s another whistleblower. There’s an IRS. This is a separate story. There’s an IRS whistleblower, Gary Shapley.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:05

    Might be pronouncing that wrong, who said that the Trump appointed prosecutor who was investigating Hunter you know, over his tax fraud that did end up indicting him, told this whistleblower that they couldn’t go deeper.
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:20

    They knew too much
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:21

    There wasn’t gonna be a special prosecutor over this. They wouldn’t they couldn’t appoint one because the big, you know, Biden doesn’t want one. And and they don’t wanna look into what Biden’s responsibility. So they’re just gonna have a narrow scope to this. Now that prosecutor has I believe just a couple hours ago sent a letter we’re taping this on Tuesday afternoon.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:39

    Sent a letter denying those accusations by that whistleblower. I can’t really as a podcaster here in New Orleans, like, determine who’s telling the truth in that situation. But but we do know that it is a it’s a Trump appointed prosecutor.
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:52

    Let me say this, Tim. At least that whistleblower is not under indictment for being a spy. There’s one mark in his credibility.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:00

    Yeah. Or on the land. Or on the land? Yeah. Testify.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:03

    So here’s here’s the other can we do the one eyed I wanna do the one eyed man real quick.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:06

    Okay. Before we do the one eyed man, I I just I think that there’s there’s just one important thing I wanna if if you’re listening this and you’re like Sarah Longwell you’re just trying to sift through all the weeds and understand what’s important here. And I think this is a response to the your friend who emails. And others who think that we should be looking at this more. If there was a piece of clear evidence of wrongdoing, this would be much easier for you to follow.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:28

    And that I That’s really what this comes down to. It’s like there are likely pieces of evidence of Hunter Biden making ungodly sums of money from foreign countries, and that seems very unsavory. It’s something that a lot of family members have a lot of politicians have done, which is unsavory. I condemn all of them equally, but if if that were looking to the Joe Biden, like, this is only a real scandal that could have impact if Joe Biden is involved. And they have been digging under every rock, dating back to the Trump administration, and now to the James Comey oversight committee, looking for something, that implicates Biden.
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:01

    And this was gonna be their star witness. And now he’s disappeared doing basement videos, you know, while he runs from the law. And as JBL so explicitly pointed out in the triad, like, the the the charges against the with this quote unquote whistleblower gal Luf are very explicit now, and on the record, and evidence based, you know. And and so, like, this is the problem with people who wanna be, You gotta call balls and strikes. You gotta look at your mind.
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:26

    It’s like, well, give me something. Give me something. I’m not Just like you, I’m not afraid. I wasn’t I’m not that he, you know, we went over the grandchild situation on Sunday. If you give me something that Joe Biden did, I’ll talk about it, but they have nothing And that’s why this thing is so complicated.
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:41

    Because in order to try to implicate Joe Biden, they gotta do smoke and mirrors and all this, well, and there’s James Biden. There’s Burisma and there’s this and it’s like, okay, Bubolinsky. And it’s like, okay, well show me one thing. Just show me one thing. Okay?
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:56

    And then we’ll start taking it seriously. And the one thing you said you were gonna show me now this guy is a it turns out he’s a Chinese spy and he’s running from the law. So that’s not really great. Anyway, now now do the one eyed man.
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:07

    So this gentleman meets with In twenty nineteen, in Europe, I I wanna say it was Brussels. I I think it was Joe Biden. No. No. Wait a minute.
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:19

    It wasn’t Joe Biden. It was Donald Trump in twenty nineteen.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:21

    Was Bill Barr the attorney general then?
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:23

    I guess he was. Yeah. I guess he was. He meets with, I believe, six members according to him. Six members of the FBI, the Department of Justice, and he gives them the goods.
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:35

    He gives them chapter in verse. Right? His gal loft on all of the things that his sources his totally above board sources in the Chinese government have told him about their own dealings with Hunter Biden. Why the Chinese government is doing this to screw the the guy that they’re trying to to sweeten up over here, Hunter Biden, with this other guy who they’re also trying to Who can say? Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:02

    I mean, it’s maybe they’re playing three-dimensional chess. They’re they’re Chinese. They’re, you know, they they play a very long game over there.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:08

    Watch out.
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:10

    Somehow, This information is suppressed. Now how is it suppressed? One might ask, who can say Right? We we do have testimony.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:21

    Gal can say.
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:22

    Well, gal can say. And Gal says it’s because he discovers that the Biden family has a mole inside the FBI. The Biden crying family has a mole. They have, I guess, like all crime families, they have tried to get you remember in the godfather Michael Corleone has that bent Irish cop that he’s, you know, was on his payroll and maybe
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:46

    This is the departed situation where every the mobster and the FBI are all really kind of on the same side kind of situation.
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:54

    And this moles code name is one eye. Oh, one eye.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:02

    Which is literally a plot point from the fugitive, by the way. The Harrison Ford movie, The fugitive. There’s the one I
  • Speaker 4
    0:16:08

    arm. It’s a one arm.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:09

    That’s a one armed man. Okay. Sorry. It’s been a while. This is Nick Fury from the Avengers movies.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:15

    And I just look, As I as I said in I
  • Speaker 4
    0:16:18

    think it’s more when I’d really or it’s like it’s like winking like an elaborate joke.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:24

    As as I said, my news are, I I am happy to believe that either both or none of these things are true. Right?
  • Speaker 4
    0:16:30

    I am
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:30

    I am happy to believe that the government has made it all up or is mistaken in its claims against Gal Lufth, and that also there’s nothing there with Hunter Biden.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:39

    I’m I’m not really I’m not really there for I’m happy to believe that both are true or that only Gal is guilty. But Gal is definitely guilty.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:46

    Also happy to believe they’re both true. But but for the people who want to believe that Gal is innocent, but that hunter is guilty, it means you’re taking one hundred percent of your evidence from this basement video sent out by this guy who’s on the run from the law, who is not in a row and who has no evidence, and who has this fantastical story and whose life seems to be not quite what you would expect as the director of a think tank. I think all three of us have known a lot of directors of Washington think tanks. I do not believe that Arthur Brooks and his spare time was putting together weapons caches to sell from the Chinese to the Libyan?
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:29

    He does wear those mock turtlenecks that are a little suspicious sometimes. So Arthur Brooks to us.
  • Speaker 4
    0:17:34

    I will say, I do think the Washington scene, I don’t know if it was always like that. I do think it’s flush with foreign cash now. In a way that is different. I mean, maybe it’s always been true.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:45

    Why could that possibly have been? Yeah. I mean, we we just had an administration that was for sale. Yeah. Like, I don’t you know, of course, it would be.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:53

    Right? And
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:53

    this is the frustrating part. I just I really I just made this point, but it’s like, I can’t even get one Iota, like, a single Republican Like, you know and I guess Mitt Romney is probably in the Sarah Longwell. Like, I’m just just wake me up if if there’s some evidence here and then I’ll read the briefing paper on this. But like, You know, not there can’t be a single republican out there, not even one that’s in the Ron DeSantis camp or something, looking for an advantage that could just say, hey, It is a little concerning that this is now the fourth country where we have evidence of manipulating the Donald Trump administration in the transition. And and if we’re gonna get mad at Joe Biden’s hypothetical crimes here, we should maybe look at what was happening around Donny t, but no, nobody.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:35

    No. No.
  • Speaker 4
    0:18:35

    Chris Christie might get there. Chris Christie. He’s been he’s
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:38

    been on
  • Speaker 4
    0:18:38

    the Saudi stuff pretty well.
  • Speaker 3
    0:18:39

    We’ll
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:39

    see. Yeah. That’s a good point there.
  • Speaker 5
    0:18:47

    For a limited time, sweet deals is offering qualified listeners the vacation of a lifetime, an all inclusive five day four night stay in a suite for just two adults and up to two children in Cancun, Mexico for just two hundred ninety nine dollars. This opportunity is valued at more than two thousand six hundred dollars. That’s right. A two thousand six hundred vacation for two ninety nine and it’s all inclusive. Meaning all your food and drinks are included, attendance is required at a presentation for vacation club ownership, but who cares?
  • Speaker 5
    0:19:17

    There’s no purchase necessary, and you have a thirty day money back guarantee if you change your mind. Do not miss this exclusive luxury vacation offer from sweetfields dot com. Two hundred ninety nine dollars for four nights at an all inclusive resort in beautiful cancun, Mexico. Go to sweetfields dot com right now and snag this once in a lifetime offer. That’s sweet deals dot com.
  • Speaker 4
    0:19:43

    For a limited time, sweet deals
  • Speaker 5
    0:19:47

    is offering qualified listeners an exciting vacation. Spend four days and three nights at a luxury hotel in fun and fabulous Las Vegas Nevada for only ninety nine dollars, save more than six hundred dollars. As part of the package, you’ll receive a hundred dollars in free slot play, a hundred dollars dining advantage card, and each will be booked in a suite. You’ll be vacationing in luxury that’s only available in Vegas. Attendance is required at a presentation for vacation club ownership, but who cares?
  • Speaker 5
    0:20:18

    There’s no purchase necessary, so it’s a win win plus we offer a thirty day money back guarantee. Do not miss this glucive luxury vacation offer from sweet deals dot com. That’s three nights in a luxury Las Vegas hotel for only ninety nine dollars. Go to sweet deals dot com right now and snag this once in a lifetime offer. That sweet deals dot com.
  • Speaker 3
    0:20:44

    Alright. Moving on. We’re recording on prime day. A blessed prime day to all who celebrate. You guys won’t get this until after prime day.
  • Speaker 3
    0:20:52

    We have news that on the fourteenth of July, we’re gonna have a candidate forum hosted by the blaze with Tucker Carlson, my friend Tucker, as the host in Iowa. It’s gonna be a five candidate forum where they’re gonna really dig in deep for the the types of things that Iowa voters need to know about. On our list of candidates who are showing up, we have Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley. Vivek, Kim Scott, and Mike Pence. This whole thing just seems odd to me, and I don’t quite understand it, that the team normal candidates are showing up to kiss the ring of the guy who was too extreme for Fox.
  • Speaker 3
    0:21:34

    And who just, like, sat down with Andrew Tate. And Trump won’t show up to this, and I did like, everything about this feels strange, and I don’t understand it. And I don’t know, like, what is Mike what sort of response does Mike Pence expect to get here? Like, what how how is this all supposed to work? Sarah Longwell happening?
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:52

    Really quick. One fact in this though, isn’t it also the family leader? I think that just does explain to Mike Pence. I wanna
  • Speaker 3
    0:21:57

    Oh, maybe.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:57

    Is that is that it’s Iowa family leader and the Blazian Tucker.
  • Speaker 3
    0:22:00

    Maybe that’s what I thought.
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:01

    I think there’ll be a couple of god fear and folk there that Mike that Mike Pence will go see.
  • Speaker 4
    0:22:05

    This is an easy one. I mean, the entire right wing media industrial complex as well as its political elites are hopelessly, corrupts not the right word, but just Nothing’s too far. Like, the fact that Tucker Carlson was the one who said that January six was no big deal. He was gonna prove it by releasing that selectively cut January six footage. That that proved that January six was staged and all those things.
  • Speaker 4
    0:22:29

    Mike Pence just says, cool, I’ll come on your show, bro. Okay. Because this is what you have to do, right? This is Tucker’s a big piece of he’s got the audience, except for Trump, because Trump has the direct line. This is the problem for a bunch of them, right?
  • Speaker 4
    0:22:43

    They need Tucker to be their mediator. They need Tucker to be the person who touches them and says, they’re okay, I’ll talk I’m talking to them, whereas Trump could go directly to the people and that’s always been his power. There’s not that much to say about it. I’m not surprised that Tucker’s hosting candidate forums, and I’m not surprised Trump’s not showing up. He doesn’t have to.
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:04

    And Nikki, Nikki and Tim Scott,
  • Speaker 4
    0:23:06

    who are
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:07

    You can you you you obviously have thoughts about team normal, but I wanna hear JV. I wanna go into the Trump point ball. He’s not showing to Sarah Longwell you know that it always pains me anytime I have to compliment Trump about anything. But there there is one thing that that me and Trump worldwide done.
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:21

    If you observe that he has done something smart, it means that you want him to win.
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:25

    I know. No. Okay. I do not want Donald Trump to win. Please God, I just I hope he dies.
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:31

    There’s one thing we were aligned on, no, dating back to twenty sixteen. And and he was even further on this than I was. But I always felt that I was just like, there are all these stupid conventions of presidential campaigns that’s like, every candidate does it, And it’s like you do it because, you know, George Bush did it and George Bush did it because his dad did it and his dad did it because Reagan did it. And it’s like, why do I have to do all these things? I mean, at the most narrow example, something I had control over.
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:59

    Like, campaigns put out these stupid press releases that nobody read all the time and these rapid response things during debates that nobody read. And during the job campaign, I was like, we’re not doing this anymore. I was like, this one little thing is not gonna change whether Jeff wins or loses, but it’s like, it’s a small version of this big.
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:14

    Lose. Are you sure that We got it. Because you didn’t put out rapid response?
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:18

    I’m pretty I’m pretty sure it wasn’t because rapid response, press releases. That’s
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:21

    a convenient excuse for
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:22

    you and your choice. Maybe it was. Maybe it was. And maybe everyone should send out a hundred rapid response emails I was totally wrong. The point is what what Donald Trump demonstrated was that like, I actually don’t need to do any of this.
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:34

    I’ll just do it whatever I want. And I’ll speak directly to voters and and a lot of the stuff that the consultants want you to do and say are stupid and I’m not gonna do the stupid stuff. And I don’t have any good consultants around me anyway. I just have the I just have hope and the golf caddy and like stuff Abbie Guys, Lewandowski, and none of them are gonna tell me what to do. And so I’m just gonna, like, do whatever I want.
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:57

    And the thing is, he was right. He was right. He was proven right. He won easily without any of the accoutrement campaigns. And so now here we are eight years later, and sometimes I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:11

    Because like all of these same Ron DeSantis, so we’re working on all of these same same campaigns, are doing all of the same stupid shit that Donald Trump demonstrated you don’t have to do. Bob Vanderplatz, Londer Plotes in Iowa, in his family leader forum, the twelve people are gonna live stream, like, isn’t gonna make or break Donald Trump? It just isn’t. Donald Trump was at, you know where he was this past weekend at an MMA fight? Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:35

    When they were talking about him on on Joe Regan, they’re talking about this on the Bill Simmons podcast that I listened to. Millions upon millions of people see him he’s doing selfies Like, way more people watch that than are gonna watch the family leader thing. Jacob, I wanna hear your take. I think that there’s obviously some, you know, some moral and ethical questions here as well as, like, why are you dealing with Tucker who is, you know, just most recently on the Russell brand conspiracy podcast, talking about how much he loves Donald Trump. Even though he secretly, you know, even though in private he’s texting about, yeah, he hates him.
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:03

    Like, why would they go do this? But like I think that the Trump key insight here is like some of this stuff just isn’t that important and he’s not gonna do it.
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:11

    I also don’t think he should do any of this stuff. Why would he? In the same way that Joe Biden should not be running a primary campaign, like, he should just be crediting. Donald Trump should just be running as if he’s the nominee, basically. And, you know, kick the crap out of the Santa’s because he enjoys doing it.
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:28

    Right? Do it for sport. But for the rest of this stuff, like, forget that. Just, you know, don’t don’t do these debates. Like, do your own counter programming.
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:37

    And also, what are they gonna do? Right? So they you know, Donald Trump doesn’t show up to a debate. The first five minutes are about Donald Trump not showing up at the debate, but after that, they’re gonna turn on each other like crabs in a pot because everybody’s gonna wanna, you know, to really win the debate and try to try to get themselves to double digits so that they can be the new number two. Sarah, do do you agree on this?
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:59

    Where are you on
  • Speaker 4
    0:27:00

    Yeah. I agree.
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:00

    Something should or shouldn’t do it.
  • Speaker 4
    0:27:02

    I mean, I don’t wanna give advice to Donald Trump because I just my only advice to him is to go with
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:06

    the rapper. He’s gonna take it. Don’t worry.
  • Speaker 4
    0:27:09

    But, no, I mean, strategically, it’s right. He’s in the power position. He doesn’t he shouldn’t get on stage or elevate any of I mean, if he was participating in this Tucker thing, it would be a lot more news. Yeah. Then it’s gonna be when it’s just the undercard.
  • Speaker 4
    0:27:22

    And he lets let them be the undercard. One thing I’ll just tag onto there is, I’m sure I’ve talked about this before, but it’s so important to recognize this as Santa’s major structural disadvantage, which is that there’s basically no worse spot than the number two spot. He needed to get so much closer to Trump, than he is in order to make it really a two man race. Because instead, right now, as he slips into the teens, all he is is everybody’s target, because the only way to get to Trump is through DeSantis. There’s no point, I mean, Christy has decided on a specific strategy that is related to, I have a role to play in this whole deal, and that’s just to go at Trump.
  • Speaker 4
    0:28:03

    But if Christie’s on the debate stage with Ron DeSantis, he would spend a lot of time attacking around a Santos, and that is a huge structural disadvantage for Ron DeSantis, everybody’s after him, including Trump. And that’s why his negatives are going up.
  • Speaker 3
    0:28:15

    I gotta say, I have been skeptical that Christie could handle Donald Trump on a debate setting. I’m pretty sure that Ron DeSantis cannot handle
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:25

  • Speaker 4
    0:28:25

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:25

  • Speaker 3
    0:28:25

    Chris Christie in a debate. DeSantis is so bad at this stuff. If Christie decides to take after him, ugh ugh. It’ll be obvious.
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:33

    I’ve my little David Cocchell in my brain. My former friend and mentor who was in denial campaigns. And I I do I think it’s worth mentioning one thing about Trump and the Iowa thing that is maybe the only counter to this point we’ve all been making. And that is that he really could end this whole thing in Iowa. And like the campaign is kind of over, if Trump wins.
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:53

    Yeah. Aaua caucus.
  • Speaker 4
    0:28:54

    One hundred percent.
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:55

    Yeah. And so is there a question of, you know, on the margins is he gonna because he also did the thing where he’s attacking the governor, Kim Reynolds, and I think that speaks to the whole Donald Trump’s unconventional and he can attack people and like I don’t think anyone actually gives who what what the governor says about the race, people have their own opinions about it. But if he turns off even two percent of Iowa caucus scores, which is a pretty small number of people. Right? You know, because he’s being mean to Kim, and he’s not showing up to this.
  • Speaker 2
    0:29:22

    And then they’re like, oh, they feel guilty. You know what I mean? Like there people are cross pressured. And so it’s all against. Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:29:29

    And I think it’s probably something for them to be cautious of, you know, would be my one strategic point about Ron DeSantis has to do this, why these other jokers why are any of the other jokers besides Vivec and the race actually is kind of maybe a better question, but why why are they doing this? Because you’re hoping that that happens that, like, you know, the Iowa people eventually kind of bristle at the treatment. And so, I guess, that’s the only, you know, risk. But, again, that can be offset by doing a bunch of Iowa stuff later.
  • Speaker 4
    0:29:57

    Yeah. Just on this point, Ron DeSantis’ team has said this. That Iowa is the ball game. Like, Trump can lose Iowa and still win. Ron DeSantis can’t lose Iowa and go on to win.
  • Speaker 4
    0:30:10

    One of the things we’ve been looking at at the office is the polling in the Super Tuesday states. Right? So everyone’s focused on Iowa, focused on New Hampshire, and it’s true. DeSantis’ team said something like Ron DeSantis, I always got two percent of the delegates, but ninety percent of the momentum, and I think that’s a correct theory of the case. But if you look at the polling from the Big Super Tuesday states, many of which are either winner take all or winner take most, Trump is destroying DeSantis.
  • Speaker 4
    0:30:34

    Like in California and in Texas and in lots of other places, like it’s not even close. And people aren’t paying attention to those states, but they will matter a great deal for the delegate count on the big day because the Republican primary is structured to basically be put to bed after super Tuesday. Like, it is set up to go quick.
  • Speaker 3
    0:30:54

    Let me explain why. I do not believe that Iowa is two percent of the delegates in ninety percent of the momentum this time around. It normally is a lot of momentum. That momentum is rarely decisive. People people win Iowa and then lose the nomination all the time.
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:09

    But it is unheard of to have a front runner be a former president who is polling well over fifty percent with a thirty two to thirty six point lead over whoever is in second.
  • Speaker 4
    0:31:26

    Not in Iowa.
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:27

    No. But but when Iowa is is a momentum changer, it’s when you have like one candidate thirty five, and then three other candidates in the teens, and then two people in single digits, and everybody is sort of struggling to break out. Right? This is and then you can use Iowa to sling Shot out. When you have a guy who again fully vetted because he’s a former president.
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:51

    There is no uncertainty. There’s it’s not like that he just hasn’t been defined yet or people haven’t thought about what they really think about the candidate. Like, and Trump is just everything is baked in, and he’s over fifty percent support. There is no slingshot to catch up to that. I just don’t buy it.
  • Speaker 4
    0:32:08

    I’ll push back on that just ever so slightly. And there’s two things going on. One is, the opportunity for people to get momentum around electability, right? Like if if Ron DeSantis and and I’m gonna push but this is like such a gentle pushback because I’m mostly I mostly agree with you. But I just wanna say that, like, if there was a dynamic changer and this assumes nothing happens to Trump and, like, someone new doesn’t get in, and DeSantis completely collapsed or something like that.
  • Speaker 4
    0:32:36

    But if you’re DeSantis and you do win Iowa, and it’s a surprise, Oh my gosh, she won. This is where I’ll end up arguing against myself. There’s a little bit of the other Republicans do maybe say a bunch of people drop out. Like, okay Ron DeSantis is the only one, so they drop out. The problem is is that unlike the Democrats where that helped Joe Biden, I’m not sure it helps DeSantis if Nikki Haley drops out and endorses him.
  • Speaker 4
    0:32:59

    And so it’s complicated, but I do think electability is the one thing that still comes up a lot and is still people’s big hesitation. And just like Joe Biden had a big momentum shift in one state around electability, that’s sort of the only path I see for a big change. I don’t think it’s super likely, but it is the path.
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:19

    But the polling I mean, the the match up polling would have to get a lot worse for Trump and a lot better for DeSantis in order for the electability to really resonate with voters.
  • Speaker 4
    0:33:28

    Well, no. But I’m just saying this is we’re talking hypothetically if you want Iowa. And I’m saying what it would do is go people go, oh, he can beat Trump. And these things can change fast when people are making a calculation around who can beat Joe Biden, who the most qualified. That’s what happened for the DEMS in twenty twenty.
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:45

    Alright. So I wanna talk quickly about Bergam and Vivec. Who are doing something interesting in an attempt to get onto the debate stage. Bergam is offering people twenty dollar gift cards if they will contribute one dollar to his campaign.
  • Speaker 4
    0:33:58

    Illegal.
  • Speaker 2
    0:33:59

    Seems like a bribe to me.
  • Speaker 3
    0:34:00

    And Vivic is offering people a taste of the fundraising that they bring in. And so you have essentially one guy running arbitrage in order to buy votes, and another guy turning his fundraising into a Lula Row, MLM. And I just and nobody blinks at it. This is we are in a place where these things barely register. They’re just like sure.
  • Speaker 3
    0:34:27

    That’s a thing that happens.
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:28

    We don’t have a federal election commission, basically, which is kind of the problem. I mean, it’s we’re in the vague of elections. I will say this as I’m a little offended on Doug Bergam’s behalf that neither of you mentioned him when when just doing that lately assessment what happened in Iowa because Doug in the neighboring state well, neighboring state of North Dakota. I just think the game’s so open for Doug. I’ll I’ll say that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:51

    Gosh a good logo. And not an election lawyer. It it seems illegal to bribe people nineteen dollars. My biggest question is like is it unethical for me as a as a podcast host? Like take his nineteen bucks because I’m thinking I was
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:02

    this close to doing it today.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:05

    I know. I almost did it too. I don’t know. We’ll think about that. I I’d like some feedback on whether I can do that ethically.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:10

    The Vivic thing, I can’t believe I’m doing this. I’m about to do it again. He’s making a good point. I The fundraising oligopoly that he called it is corrupt and crazy, and it’s in Like, the system of oh, Ron DeSantis can pay somebody who is who is the intermediary between him and a bunch of rich people in New York and California to put a million dollars into Jeff Rose Super PAC and then take ten percent off it. Like, it’s gross and and I kind of agree with a vague point.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:46

    I don’t know that it’s legal for him to do a little MLM and but I but these substitute the like idea behind the point. I looked at it and I was kind of like, you know, they’re like, maybe people do deserve a little cut. Maybe may the regular folks, you know, doing little grassroots fundraisers, if if why shouldn’t they get ten percent?
  • Speaker 4
    0:36:06

    How do you get a cut? What’s the process by which, like if you are you a bundler online for him? You have a link.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:13

    You have a link. You have a link. So you send the link to all
  • Speaker 3
    0:36:17

    your Amazon referral link.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:18

    Yeah. You post to the link onto your get or feed, and then anybody that donates off that, if they donate five bucks — Wow.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:26

  • Speaker 2
    0:36:26

    you get fifty Scrant back. I don’t know.
  • Speaker 3
    0:36:29

    One more universe in which Vivake showing a lot more imagination than literally every other member of the field. Exactly.
  • Speaker 4
    0:36:38

    Yeah. So here’s the thing. This is a function of needing the of this like rule where you need forty thousand individual donors to get on the debate stage. And I gotta, this is just my opportunity to make the point that there is a cottage industry in Washington ten of people who are mad about campaign finance reform. Campaign finance reform is the dominant issue for just decades, people talking about it and dark money and all that.
  • Speaker 4
    0:37:00

    HAY guys, this is, this money is out in the open and it is not big corporations, it is from the people. Do we love it? Is this democracy? Is this is exactly what we wanted? Did we get everything we hoped and dreamed?
  • Speaker 4
    0:37:14

    Or are the people So how
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:15

    are Dean Dream?
  • Speaker 4
    0:37:17

    Or are the people supporting lunatics?
  • Speaker 3
    0:37:20

    The people are the problem as it turns out. This is a classic case of a government reform which didn’t understand how complex the system was, and so ultimately made things worse. Right? I mean, I just think it’s it’s not even debatable that we have worse candidates now than we did
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:39

    thirty years ago
  • Speaker 3
    0:37:40

    by a lot. And that the the worst candidates are able to fundraise a ton of money. Totally. And it’s it’s
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:48

    The Jack Abrahamff Day is really I it’s again, it’s not the best system. It’s not a perfect system. I’m not endorsing bribery, but like in retrospect, I’d rather have Jack Abraham off, Greece, and a couple people’s wheels who are, you know, who are normal people playing the inside game than having, you know, Lauren Bauberts an MTG.
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:07

    Delicious folks. But this is, you know, this is the same thing. I forget somebody wrote a really smart piece about this, like, fifteen years ago. It might it might have been Will Saletan his slate days. I could be wrong.
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:19

    About how so many of these good government reforms wind up backfiring. Totally. And the the classic example is like pork barrel stuff. So, you know, the the attempt to eliminate pork barrel politics one of the things that did was increase polarization. Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:34

    Because you couldn’t you just couldn’t buy off votes from people from the other team, which meant that you didn’t get as much bipartisan stuff, which meant that everything became a party line vote in a litmus test. And, you know, is it more economically efficient to get rid of pork barrel politics? Sure. But what that money was buying you, that money that was sloshed around the system, it was buying you a little more bipartisanship. It was buying you a government that actually gets stuff done.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:59

    This is JBL’s endorsement of the bridge to nowhere.
  • Speaker 3
    0:39:01

    Basically, yes.
  • Speaker 4
    0:39:02

    Oh,
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:02

    yeah. Those people needed that bridge.
  • Speaker 3
    0:39:04

    Okay? Basically, yes. God bless. This is what’s weird, rich country. And our Does
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:09

    it tell? Was that it was, Ted Seans?
  • Speaker 3
    0:39:12

    If if our if our you know, what that can do is bias a government that is wasteful but functional and not crazy, I’m in favor
  • Speaker 6
    0:39:19

    of it.
  • Speaker 7
    0:39:21

    Are you currently enjoying this show on the Stitcher app, then you need to know Stitcher is going away on August twenty ninth. Yep. Going away. As in Kaput, gone, dead. Rest in peace Stitcher, and thanks for fifteen years of service to the podcast community.
  • Speaker 7
    0:39:41

    So Switch to another podcast app and follow this show there. Apple Spotify or wherever you listen.
  • Speaker 8
    0:39:51

    Stacking benjamins with Joe and his good friend OG not only has great financial insight, it’s laid back with humor too.
  • Speaker 6
    0:39:58

    Dollar cost averaging work because everything else doesn’t. Let me put that a different way. But dollar cost averaging works every time. Just keep buying. Sixty percent of the time, it works every time.
  • Speaker 6
    0:40:08

    People spend a lot of time, o g, worrying about when to buy. This is really simple. You should invest when you have the money and you should withdraw the money when you need the money. Boom. There it is.
  • Speaker 6
    0:40:15

    I believe they call that mic drop.
  • Speaker 8
    0:40:17

    The stacking Benjamin show available on YouTube or wherever you listen.
  • Speaker 3
    0:40:22

    Okay. Final bit, we had as you guys hinted at. Some polling showing Donald Trump in Florida leading Ron DeSantis by twenty, but that’s probably just because of name ID. And we
  • Speaker 4
    0:40:30

    had some mailers
  • Speaker 3
    0:40:35

    circulating in Iowa this week about Trump, which are amazing. They’re they’re really they are positioned as if they are thank you president Trump from gay and trans rights groups who are thanking the president the former president for being such a leader. Thank you, Donald Trump, for standing up for LGBTQ plus rights. That’s one of them. The other one is a rainbow colored fist raised up, you know, like black power style, but rainbow power style.
  • Speaker 3
    0:41:09

    Donald Trump stood up for marriage equality and trans rights while many Republican leaders are fighting against gay marriage and trans rights. And it’s a you know, it takes courage to change the culture, and we thank Donald Trump for standing with LGBTQ plus Americans to fight against the close minded Republicans who won’t accept change.
  • Speaker 4
    0:41:31

    Tim, I have a question for you. As an operative, do you kinda like this move? Like, is there a part of you that thinks like, yeah, that’s smart.
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:39

    That’s a good question. No. And I’ll tell you why. It’s Don Young. We did that with Ted Stevens.
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:45

    I wanna shout out Don Young on the original work. Part of this was, like, in almost every case, these too clever by half situations end up corrupting you more than it helps. Be your opponent. And I just I looked back with like some glee on some of the really clever things that we did like this in Iowa working from a cane attacking Romney and Giuliani and and did it matter? No, Micah could be ended up winning Iowa.
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:13

    John McCain made his comeback based on his commitment to the surge in Iraq, not on my not on my too clever by half anonymous websites. That like attacks Rudy Giuliani for a loving abortion so much or what, you know, that that, you know, stuff or the or the flipper of this senior Flipper, the Hispanic dolphin that I sent following around Mitt Romney. I mean, some of this stuff was was, you know, I look back on and I’m just like, It did nothing. It did nothing and and good. And that is the case here.
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:43

    Is this really convincing anybody? Is this really convincing anybody that this idea Donald Trump is too nice to gaze. I don’t see it. And and to me, if anything, the thing that it worries me about is it softening him up.
  • Speaker 4
    0:42:56

    For the general.
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:57

    I think it’s softening him up.
  • Speaker 4
    0:42:58

    Yeah. Right.
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:59

    If you don’t
  • Speaker 3
    0:43:00

    Oh, Donald Trump, look at
  • Speaker 4
    0:43:01

    this moderate. Look at this moderate guy. I know.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:04

    Yeah. So anyway, no. I see what you’re saying. I I on at at one level in my brain, I’m like, hey, clever idea there. But I just I don’t think that it’s gonna work and I think that the best case scenario has no impact and you’ve become complicit in homophobic bigotry and like the worst case scenario is that actually softens up Donald Trump for general.
  • Speaker 3
    0:43:23

    Sarah, why try for the bank shot though? Look, if you’re the DeSantis campaign, and I’m not saying this was the DeSantis or his super back or some associated, but it does who
  • Speaker 4
    0:43:32

    it was. Now who was trying to say it was the coach.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:34

    We don’t.
  • Speaker 3
    0:43:35

    We have it in here somewhere. It’s a new organization should have not been paid for by advancing our values.
  • Speaker 4
    0:43:41

    Okay. Sure.
  • Speaker 3
    0:43:42

    But here’s what I don’t understand. If if this is from DeSantis’s plan.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:47

    Here’s what we know it’s not from just really quick. Here’s what we know it’s not from somebody that hates gays. It is from is one of these same things we’re just talking It’s from some rich guy in New York fund you know, funded Super PAC that’s being that’s having a DC based strategist who’s using the ten percent cut to build a beach house like it’s not genuine, nobody that reads this is like, oh yeah, this is coming from someone who shares my values and is scared about this stuff. It’s coming from somebody with gay friends. You know, who’s pretending like they they do this to because they think it might trick the roops.
  • Speaker 3
    0:44:19

    Why not just run right out though, Sarah? Why not just do like the the video. Right? The the DeSantis WarRoom video that he went and defended on Tommy Larin’s show. And, you know, he said, well, it’s fair game.
  • Speaker 3
    0:44:32

    You know, so he did let her do miss universe in twenty twelve. Why why not just run right at?
  • Speaker 4
    0:44:39

    I I do think he will go right at him. I mean, I I do think that DeSantis has decided this is where he’s gonna stand. And this is the thing I think that this play is like, normal sort of dirty politics stuff. But the problem, the thing is is that it doesn’t make sense now. We all know Trump Trump is baked in, it’s all baked, guys.
  • Speaker 4
    0:44:56

    I just, like, what I just don’t this is and this is like another structural problem. It’s like, what are you gonna tell people about Donald Trump? Donald Trump The picture of him waving the Republic or the gay flag in twenty sixteen was everywhere. And Yeah. People loved it.
  • Speaker 4
    0:45:12

    This is — I loved it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:45:13

  • Speaker 4
    0:45:13

    this is just this classic. We talk about this a lot. It’s Tim’s point. I love this point. That that Trump as a social moderate is a big boon for him, and that DeSantis is whether he did this or not, he is trading away the idea of him being normal, and, you know, somebody that that normal people can get by and he’s on his way, so I hear he’s making a pilgrimage back east to meet with donors to reassure them.
  • Speaker 4
    0:45:38

    But don’t worry, he’s playing the long game. He’s in it. You know? He’s he’s that’s what he’s doing.
  • Speaker 2
    0:45:43

    Can I throw in, though, to what you said that? And we’ve done this on this podcast. I I I you you threw this question at me live a couple weeks ago. What would you do instead? And it’s like you would at least be able to come to me and say, hey, Tim, does the operative side of you think this is clever?
  • Speaker 2
    0:45:57

    If it was something that was conceivably new information. Right? Like like let’s say they did what ARVAT did. And they went down to the border in Arizona. And they found a MAGA looking person who looks like he’s Paul Gosar’s buddy from the club, like wearing the red hat and he’s like, Donald Trump said he was gonna build the wall, but you know what?
  • Speaker 2
    0:46:16

    I still got these water maulins coming across the border with their fentanyl and I saw you know, I saw Veritos on the ground yesterday. Like, whatever. You know? Like, some, like, legitimately mega person who’s fucking pissed that Hispanic people are still coming into his community in a border town and saying, Donald Trump let me down. Okay.
  • Speaker 2
    0:46:37

    I don’t know. Maybe that doesn’t work either, but at least you’re trying. At least you’re trying something that might be a new piece of information that might move these people. Like being like Donald Trump is too nice to gay people, Come on.
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:49

    I’d like to ask both of you because DeSantis is there does seem to be some donor panic. Eric Eric has written about this being on a lot of list and text change with people and the DeSantis people seem to be promising everybody. Don’t worry. They’ve got it all in hand. Change is coming.
  • Speaker 3
    0:47:05

    Why would the donors stick with him? There is enough time to pivot. Isn’t there, like, I the the To whom?
  • Speaker 2
    0:47:12

    Because the only person to pivot to his Vivint
  • Speaker 3
    0:47:14

    Mike Pence is right there. He’s at six percent.
  • Speaker 4
    0:47:17

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 3
    0:47:18

    No. This is this is what I wanted to tell Will Saletan had a great piece, not Mike Pence. In how Mike Pence
  • Speaker 4
    0:47:24

    You really like Will Saletan guy. He sounds good.
  • Speaker 3
    0:47:26

    He’s great. He’s he’s wonderful. He’s almost as good as his brother, Will Salatin. And Mike Pence is in a diner and he gets asked about January sixth, and he, like, he fully engages with all of the the respect and persuade. He does the truth sandwich.
  • Speaker 3
    0:47:43

    Right? All the all the things that the pro democracy people tell us we’re supposed to do. Mike Pence went and did it, and he’s at six percent anyway, and he’s got an independent fundraising apparatus. Why not Mike Pence? Why is it that they have to stay with the guy whose whose pitch is, I will be even more liberal than Donald Trump, and I’ll get it done.
  • Speaker 3
    0:48:03

    Don’t worry. Unless they want the liberalism.
  • Speaker 4
    0:48:07

    No. I I mean, this is this answer is very obvious, which is that they’ve all got donor advisors and they listen to the strategists that walk in there, Frank Luntz and other people and they tell them, to Santos Have
  • Speaker 3
    0:48:20

    they heard Ron DeSantis speak, Sarah?
  • Speaker 4
    0:48:22

    He’s your compromise. He is your compromise between like, everybody knows Mike Pence. Everybody hates him. There’s not a consultant in the world who’s like put your money on Mike Pence and I’m sure that there are a couple deep pocketed evangelical backers who are riding hard for Mike Pence and you know, Tim Scott’s got a sugar daddy, and I’m sure Nikki Haley’s got some some nice donors in New York, and that’s fine. But like, the donors are like an amoeba the right word?
  • Speaker 4
    0:48:50

    Like they’re this constellation. They talk to each other, they feed off each other, they’re all saying the same thing, and what they’ll do is they’ll they’re all panicked right now, and somebody in that world is gonna convince them, he’s our only chance. And we just gotta do it. And these guys are practical, if nothing else, and they will suck it up and throw more money at him for as long as they think he’s the only person. In less, amoeba like, they all decide to pivot to Tim Scott or somebody else.
  • Speaker 2
    0:49:19

    Right. This is actually the best argument for Trump participating in the first debate. That he might be able to kill DeSantis — Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:49:25

  • Speaker 2
    0:49:25

    before Iowa. Right? Like if he went into the if he actually did a debate versus DeSantis in a little bit more of a high risk maneuver which maybe doesn’t need to do like the don’t I think the donors are shaky enough that they might bail if something like that happened but you know, that’s a little early for that.
  • Speaker 4
    0:49:41

    So I meant to go back to this. It is, I think, a huge problem for DeSantis that Kim Reynolds is staying neutral. Wanted to disagree with Tim about the idea that nobody cares what the governor says. When I was in Iowa talking to voters for the PBS thing, they love Kim Reynolds. I actually was like, they really loved Kim Reynolds, and I asked them specifically, will her endorsement, like, make a difference to you?
  • Speaker 4
    0:50:05

    And a bunch of people said, yes. Now Does that matter if she endorsed somebody that they didn’t wanna go with anyway, whatever. But I think the fact that I think that my guess is is that she wanted to endorse DeSantis. And if she thought he was anywhere close, she would have because she knows it will play. It would be a huge deal.
  • Speaker 4
    0:50:24

    And the fact that she’s staying neutral, means that she is not confident that Donald Trump is not absolutely gonna win, Iowa.
  • Speaker 2
    0:50:30

    And, you know, the the gross thing about it, can I just say the gross thing?
  • Speaker 4
    0:50:34

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:50:34

    There’s another reason that she’s staying neutral, because of Donald Trump’s nominee. He’s gonna be in the market for
  • Speaker 1
    0:50:40

  • Speaker 2
    0:50:40

    Yeah. — a lady.
  • Speaker 3
    0:50:41

    Somebody can try more than Nikki.
  • Speaker 4
    0:50:42

    Well, then she would have endorsed Trump though. He won’t do it. He’s already he’s attacking her. You can’t stay neutral. You can’t not be on Trump’s side.
  • Speaker 4
    0:50:48

    You have to affirmatively be on side. Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:50:50

    You’re in. That’s true. Probably. That’s a fair point. That’s a fair point.
  • Speaker 2
    0:50:53

    Okay. Donald Trump did bleed about her, actually. Delete mean said mean bleed about how she doesn’t know what she’s talking about. Which can just shows like like no no, like no, like no, like, no real Ron DeSantis. They’ll be like hey you know what you should do.
  • Speaker 2
    0:51:07

    Say send a social media post on your off brand social media. It’s like shitting on the governor of the first COVID stick. That’s not something that he paid professional will solve this and never do. Which goes to show how useless most of you are that are listening high.
  • Speaker 3
    0:51:20

    So it’s been a long show,
  • Speaker 2
    0:51:21

    but I will more have more throwback. Two more hours. I got to do two more topics.
  • Speaker 3
    0:51:25

    We had a piece on the website on Tuesday by Rich Tal, one of our friends who writes out focus groups. It’s a great thing. I love it when people write pieces for the bulwark about focus groups. And
  • Speaker 2
    0:51:36

    This is
  • Speaker 4
    0:51:36

    his most elaborate tool, Rodney.
  • Speaker 3
    0:51:38

    And Rich did a piece about undecided Trump to Biden voters. And so these are people who who have voted for each of the candidates once.
  • Speaker 2
    0:51:52

    Was this was this the rich towel piece?
  • Speaker 4
    0:51:56

    Yes. Yes.
  • Speaker 3
    0:51:56

    Rich towel piece.
  • Speaker 2
    0:51:57

    Just for clarity.
  • Speaker 3
    0:51:58

    About how they are. Rich towel wrote this piece because it conducts focus groups. And he he was interviewing these people who have voted once for Donald Trump and then again for Joe Biden and are now sitting there, and they just Gosh, golly. Darn it. They can’t make up their dumb minds.
  • Speaker 3
    0:52:16

    And I would like to know I understand how people can vote for Donald Trump. I get that. I understand how people could vote for Joe Biden. I get that too. I even understand how people could go from one to the other.
  • Speaker 3
    0:52:28

    What I cannot understand is how anybody with an IQ over eighty could look at the two and not be able to figure out which one they like best. Sarah, what is wrong with people?
  • Speaker 4
    0:52:38

    You should ask Rick Chow.
  • Speaker 3
    0:52:40

    Well, you know, I asked you because as one of our commenters pointed out a couple weeks ago, JBL knows things and Sarah knows people.
  • Speaker 4
    0:52:49

    There was a guy in one of the groups recently who was one of these Trump to Biden back to Trump voters, double flippers,
  • Speaker 2
    0:52:56

    Trump sixteen, by twenty twenty.
  • Speaker 4
    0:52:57

    Trump sixteen, by twenty twenty. Going back to Trump for twenty four. Yeah. I’ve actually seen a number of these people. And Yodie said, He said something that I’m gonna I’m gonna you know, every now and then someone in a focus group just says something, and I’m like, it sticks in my brain, and it’s the I now attribute it to all the reasons.
  • Speaker 4
    0:53:14

    He said, I’m gonna close my eyes, I’m gonna turn off the television, and I’m just gonna enjoy Trump’s economy. Hate Donald Trump?
  • Speaker 3
    0:53:22

    Which economy? The economy in twenty twenty, which was in the toilet?
  • Speaker 4
    0:53:25

    You know, I I’m before you freak out. Iraunds is just me telling you. Who who they they
  • Speaker 3
    0:53:31

    say, well, you know, with Donald Trump, we only think about the economy in twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen, and twenty eighteen. The stuff that happened after that doesn’t count. With Joe Biden, we only think about the we don’t we don’t give many credit for the good economy of twenty twenty and twenty twenty one. We only think about add economy of twenty twenty two, and then we won’t give any credence to the really good, biodynamic things that happen in twenty twenty three. Democracy doesn’t work.
  • Speaker 3
    0:53:56

    People Now the show has taken a turn.
  • Speaker 2
    0:53:59

    I’m starting to move on to the JBL side of this. Like, have to say I just kind of just get frustrated listening to the Biden Trump Biden or excuse me, Trump Biden Trump voter. I’m starting to go with JBL. I was on the Sarah Longwell of this debate for most of the year about how, you know, it people’s real inflation feelings are bad and I get it and it everything’s a little more expensive. Like increasingly that’s becoming a hard case to make.
  • Speaker 2
    0:54:26

    I mean things are a little bit more expensive that’s true but like the economy is pretty damn good. Like the market is up, Unemployment is at basically zero. Anybody that has a job wants a job can get a job. Low income people like income inequality is down. You know, which is something everybody says they wanted.
  • Speaker 2
    0:54:45

    And so, yeah, there’s still some annoying things. I occasionally get annoyed still about something that cost more than it used to. But like, I don’t know. The kick it’s starting to be I’m starting to get a little I’m starting to get a little confused and so this is a this is a good this is something that I would like to have a more lengthy report from you on from your swing group. So like these press these people a little more.
  • Speaker 2
    0:55:05

    Because, like, things are pretty fucking good, actually, in all in the grand scheme of things. Was it you JV on that did the or was it Josh Barry?
  • Speaker 3
    0:55:12

    Josh Barra when he copied my piece right down to the headline.
  • Speaker 2
    0:55:16

    Yeah. It’s like like what yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The morning in America, there’s like he’s like, here here are the economic stats from when the morning in America ad ran, and here are the economic stats from now.
  • Speaker 2
    0:55:26

    And it’s like, the economy’s better now that it was then.
  • Speaker 4
    0:55:29

    So I’m gonna go back and just make one of my very basic points, which is that I think that the Biden administration is not does not have the good news machine discipline that Trump did. And Trump’s discipline was very stupid, but he and every a surrogate if you recall would go and they would just say you would hold rallies for everybody and be like, best economy for black people, best economy for women, best economy for hispanics, best economy for you you you knew. How’s your four zero one k doing? And he had that and that was like his thing on the trail. Right?
  • Speaker 4
    0:55:57

    And there is a psychological impact to that repetition, and I think that we’re just not doing that, and in fact, people have been catastrophizing for so long and I think that could be a hangover from the pandemic.
  • Speaker 3
    0:56:11

    I get that all the time. I write pieces about like, hey, look at these economic indicators, then you know, people at my own magazine are like, wow. What is he talking about?
  • Speaker 4
    0:56:19

    That’s not what I say. I just tell you what I hear from people, and I think that there is an you know, Tim sent that article. I can’t remember now who where it was from or or what. But the guy and it was It’s my New York Mag. Yeah.
  • Speaker 4
    0:56:30

    He was making the point that when it came to to the Biden economy, like, people just like, people have never experienced inflation. Like, there’s just like generations of people who’ve just never had it before. And I thought that was sort of compelling. This idea that nobody’s just seen interest rates above six percent or like lots of older people have, but like lots of younger people haven’t. And, you know, when I was home recently and I was listening to people talk, and there was a party, and I was You know, people are talking about their rent going up and how it’s gone up by six percent and that is a lag that just lags, right?
  • Speaker 4
    0:57:04

    And it’s still being built into the economy in a way that I think hits people, And so, I think there’s real issues that there’s still a lag that actually could get better for Biden, the closer we get to the election. I also think the idea This is the other thing. For so long we talked about sliding into recession, lots of people think that we’re in a recession. Like, the number of people I don’t hear it as much anymore, but like six months ago, lots people were saying, and I would tell you to this JBL they’d be like, well, look, we’re in a recession.
  • Speaker 2
    0:57:29

    We were technically in a recession for one But
  • Speaker 4
    0:57:30

    you have to be in a recession for two quarters for it to count as a recession?
  • Speaker 2
    0:57:33

    Yeah. Yeah. That’s what I meant. We’re in we’re in our we had two back to back quarters. So we are in one so there’s that second quarter.
  • Speaker 2
    0:57:39

    We are in a recession for one quarter.
  • Speaker 3
    0:57:40

    Sarah, do you know what might help people try to understand what’s really going on in the world. Is if good guy Republicans like Will Heard didn’t launch their campaigns by lying about crime statistics and inflationary statistics. Like, if they you guys remember this. Right? Will heard the good guy.
  • Speaker 3
    0:57:58

    He’s our guy. He’s good.
  • Speaker 2
    0:58:01

    I don’t think I don’t think it’s well heard’s fault.
  • Speaker 3
    0:58:03

    I don’t
  • Speaker 2
    0:58:03

    think I don’t think that the people’s feelings about the economy are well involved.
  • Speaker 4
    0:58:07

    For a split second, I forgot he was in the race.
  • Speaker 2
    0:58:11

    Literally, Will hurt has been covered more on the next
  • Speaker 4
    0:58:13

    level podcast than
  • Speaker 2
    0:58:13

    on anywhere else in the country.
  • Speaker 3
    0:58:19

    Alright, guys. Good show, incredibly long show. I I meant to keep this under fifty minutes.
  • Speaker 4
    0:58:23

    Great work.
  • Speaker 2
    0:58:24

    I wanted to talk about my lip
  • Speaker 3
    0:58:25

    a little more. Hey, we had a good show coming on Sunday.
  • Speaker 2
    0:58:28

    Sunday, we have Jen Saki supposedly even taped it, and I usually don’t like to jinx it.
  • Speaker 3
    0:58:32

    Yeah. And your show last Sunday was fantastic with Alex Edelman. Who honestly should have been a psychiatrist, not a stand up comedian, or a philosopher, maybe, not a stand up comedian. He’s that there’s a thoughtful, thoughtful dude. Sarah, did you like it?
  • Speaker 3
    0:58:48

    Did you did you enjoy that?
  • Speaker 2
    0:58:49

    Kind of. She kinda be funny as well. But that would be too funny not overshadow. Part of it was.
  • Speaker 4
    0:58:54

    The part of our team was funny.
  • Speaker 2
    0:58:55

    Thanks, sir.
  • Speaker 3
    0:58:56

    Oh, yeah. What was your favorite favorite joke that Alex made? I Alright, guys. We’ll see you on Sunday. Bye.
  • Speaker 4
    0:59:11

    Former Navy Seal Sean
  • Speaker 9
    0:59:16

    Ryan shares real stories from real people, from all walks of life on the Sean Ryan show.
  • Speaker 2
    0:59:24

    Sean Webb. Everyone Webb.
  • Speaker 10
    0:59:25

    Everyone can be influenced. And a computer system and artificial intelligence is on the cusp of figuring out how to do that. You’re talking about the ability of being able to simulate the third human being and sign you up for special force. And all of a sudden, you’re working for an artificial intelligence that’s arming you, equipping you, and it has a human army to defend its artificial intelligence goal. That’s where we’re at.
  • Speaker 9
    0:59:42

    The Sean Ryan Show. On YouTube or wherever you listen.
Want to listen without ads? Join Bulwark+ for an exclusive ad-free version of The Next Level Podcast! Learn more here. Already a Bulwark+ member? Access the premium version here.