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DeSanctimonious Deep Dive (with Tara Palmeri)

February 18, 2023
Notes
Transcript

The Republican establishment — and many Republican voters in our focus groups — think Ron DeSantis is the answer to their prayers that they can win in 2024. But Donald Trump has a say in this matter, and he’s already offering up an early taste of the kind of attacks he’s planning on DeSantis. Heads-up: Those attacks are likely to go lower. What are DeSantis’ vulnerabilities as a candidate? Tara Palmeri of Puck News joins Sarah to listen to the focus groups and share some of her reporting from the Trump and DeSantis camps.

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This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:10

    Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Focus Group podcast. I’m Sarah Longwell, Publisher of The Bulwark. And this week, we’re doing a deep dive on Ron, the a meatball desantis. Now, you might ask, hey, Nikki Haley just gotten to the race this week. Why not do an episode about her.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:28

    That’s fair. But when we ask voters who they’d vote for, if not Donald Trump. The answer is never Nick be hailing. It’s almost always Rhonda Santos. And polling regularly bears this out.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:41

    In fact, the poll we did a few weeks ago with GOP pollster wet air had to Santos beating Trump both head to head and in a three way ballot with somebody else. And our poll isn’t an outlier in this regard. Lots of reputable polls now have Ron DeSantis beating Trump head to head matchups. And while some have speculated that Ron DeSantis may be the Scott Walker of this cycle, meaning someone with lots of hype that he ultimately can’t live up to. Nate Kona, The New York Times, points out in his column this week, Mister DeSantis is no Scott Walker.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:13

    He would start the campaign in a very different and far stronger position even if there’s still no way to know whether he has what it takes succeed against former president Donald j Trump. So I basically agree with that. Does Rhonda Santos have what it takes to beat Trump in a GOP primary? Will he live up to the hype? My guest today is someone who is well sourced in the simmering war between Trump and DeSantis Tara Paul Mary, senior political correspondent at puck news.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:40

    Tara, thanks for being here. Thanks for having me, Sarah. Okay. So you’re like the person who knows all this stuff. You’re deep deep reporting on both the Trump camp and the DeSantis camp just to, like, level set.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:54

    Can you give us the ten thousand foot view of DeSantis. Like, who is he? Does he have good political instincts? Is he his cranky? Is
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:01

    he always looks on TV? Just like, tell us your big picture on him. I think there’s just so many unknowns about DeSantis. I think that Republican voters who don’t want Trump anymore, I think, republican leaders, consultants, etcetera. They’re kinda projecting a lot of their hopes and dreams on Ron DeSantis and what he can do.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:24

    Right now, he’s a governor with a good track record. We’ve seen that before. But I think the big question mark is about whether he will be good on the debate stage, and whether he’ll be a good retail politician. All indications so far show that those are his weaknesses. And so it’s kind of a moment where he’s being dragged into the debate by Trump who wants him in the ring.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:47

    Trump is lonely out there as the front runner, and Trump is best when he’s fighting. It’s not clear that Ron DeSantis is really best when he’s fighting. I watch some old DeSantis videos from debates and he’s not really the strongest on the stage even up against Andrew Gillum when he was running for governor the first time around Charlie Crist, and, you know, Trump plays below the bell. We can only imagine it’ll be petty and childish like the meatball. Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:15

    Kinda dumb, like, the antimonious, and then just, like, sleazy, like, the groomer innuendo. And, you know, I’m told that they’ll keep going until they can really get them in the race and I’ve been told that they’re already looking at Desantis’ wife, Casey, who is very close with, as the person and the topic that will eventually pull around in because if you don’t defend your wife, it doesn’t look very good on you either. Right? I mean, if there’s anything we’ve learned from the Ted Cruz, Heidi Cruz attacks that he was punished by voters for not defending his wife enough against Donald Trump’s attacks. So Trump wants to strengthen the ring because his gut matches the fears of the Republican Party that DeSantis perhaps is more reflection of the hopes of the party rather than what is actually there.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:59

    And you might not be able to stand up to Trump because he also needs Trump’s voters and Trump knows that as well.
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:05

    Yeah. I mean, This is just not as straightforward as people seem to think it is. So I agreed with Nate Cones piece in the tilt this week that DeSantis isn’t really Scott Walker in the sense that a lot of Republican voters want him to be the president. And I can’t tell you, you know, I’ve been doing these focus groups now for years. And when we started getting into the question of, do you want Trump to run again in twenty twenty four, that has evolved.
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:33

    It’s just been diminishing over time in terms of people’s enthusiasm for Trump running again. But the biggest differentiator, the biggest thing that changed was that they had some word go,
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:42

    somebody that they liked. And that person has been around to scientists now really consistently. People have been sort of growing in their enthusiasm. It’s reflected in the polls. But their
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:52

    relationship to him is also a little shallow. They have seen him on a bunch of YouTube clips and on Fox News. They see him at the podium yelling at the media in Florida. They see him yelling at teenagers and masks. They know he took on Disney.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:06

    They like how he handled COVID. So they have these things that they like about him. But there’s also, as you know, the question of his political talent, there’s also a question that I’ve had, which is, like, what does he believe about a whole bunch of other stuff? Like, national issues that are gonna come up once he’s on the national stage? So just for one example, Where do we think he is on, you know, Ukraine?
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:27

    This is a huge dividing line within the Republican Party. Right. And so, like, the one thing I would give him I’ve seen as a political instinct has been
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:36

    his, like, strategic silence. Like,
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:37

    his ability to not engage and not get pulled in. But at some point, he’s got to answer would you keep supporting Ukraine if you were the president of the United States? And that will be a thing that may very well turn off some of the populous base. Do you have any sense of where he
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:53

    stands on some of these big national issues? Ukraine, Social Security, Medicare, there are a lot of things that desantis is not waiting into, and he really can kind of hide behind the I’m a governor, Florida, position for now because he hasn’t fully announced and I mean he’s dealing with the Florida press. He hasn’t actually faced the national press run, I think you’re gonna get those answers or you’re gonna get a lot of defensiveness and that might not be enough for voters. Based on the fact that, you know, he was a member of the House Freedom caucus and a lot of them are against a to Ukraine. I would assume that that would be his position, but he might be poll testing it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:32

    He might be again AG Ukraine when he’s in the primary, and then when he gets into the general, he may soften on that. Right? Right now, he feels comfort and culture war issues as you can tell, and he’s leaning into that. He sees himself as like a anti vaccine warrior in some ways. Of course, Trump’s team says we’ve got clips of times when he supported the vaccine.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:51

    They also say, They’ve got clips of what he called for Medicare and Social Security Reform for when he was a house Freedom caucus member. You know, obviously, when you’re member of Congress, the governor of your positions change, but you’re right. There’s just like a lot we don’t know about it. We don’t know how he’s gonna weigh on the issues. I have a feeling that he’s going to change his position based on what he thinks is gonna win him a Republican primary versus a general election.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:13

    You know, it’s interesting. It’s like, I was talking to my dad. He’s a he was a fan of Trump. Didn’t like him as a person, which I think you hear a lot from voters, but appreciated his policies and would probably vote for him again, although the attacks on DeSantis just aren’t like sitting well with him, and I’ve actually never really heard him bring up DeSantis before. Until he mentioned that Trump attacked a scientist and he didn’t think that was right, that he didn’t think that he should be attacking another republican.
  • Speaker 2
    0:07:44

    And I just wonder if you’re right, like, maybe Republican voters have just so much hope in DeSantis that they don’t want to see him getting destroyed by Trump. It was like kind of a group of people built on grievances, but now perhaps that they’re out of power, they’re building their
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:59

    dreams on hope that somebody can help them. You know what I mean? I do know what you mean and I think it’s a hundred percent true and I actually think you just landed on what I think is kind of an essential question that I have, which is we’re all assuming that DeSantis has to be super careful about attacking Trump because he needs his voters. Like, the reverse can also be true, that Trump attacking DeSantis is the kind of thing that causes voters to sour on him because I will tell you from the focus group’s electability has become the coin of the realm in the way a big swath, not everybody. But there’s this big middle of the party that they voted twice for Trump.
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:39

    They like Trump. They’re not breaking with Trump, but they wanna win and think around DeSantis is the more electable choice and seeing Trump tear him down could actually rally people to DeSantis as opposed to causing people to flee from cities. I just don’t think we know that dynamic yet. So I wanna play I wanna play some clips on this, but I do wanna start I’m actually gonna start with Nikki Haley. Because one of the reasons I’m bearish on Haley and more bullish on DeSantis, besides all the polls and indicators, is because I’ve listened to voters talk about Haley like this.
  • Speaker 4
    0:09:13

    She’s just gonna be a return to what everything was before two thousand sixteen. You know, status quo, politician, basically.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:21

    I
  • Speaker 5
    0:09:21

    don’t
  • Speaker 6
    0:09:21

    think she’s anything different than, you know, Republicans that we’ve seen in the past. I think she’d just be, you know, more of the same cookie cutter conservative views.
  • Speaker 7
    0:09:31

    She would just be right back to the Paul Ryan with John Vayner kind of a thing. Yeah. That’s a no go for
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:36

    me. So Nikki Haley has a lot of attributes that would make her sort of a fresh, new, forward looking kind of candidate. She’s young, early fifties, so relatively young to all the other people and elected office right now. You know, it’s just my no worries. She’s a woman.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:54

    She’ll likely be the only woman that’s in the Republican primary, great foreign policy jobs. So why does everybody think that she’s a throwback? And the reason is is that there’s, like, a dividing line, like, a a four Trump and after Trump. But she’s a pre Trump politician and people basically write her office establishment. They they like her okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:15

    They don’t hate her. Like they do often you’ll hear some real hate for Mike Pence or Liz Cheney. They’re like, like, her fine, but they’re not that interested in voting for her. And so I’m trying to puzzle through, like, what does Nikki’s play here? And I guess I wonder and I wanna know what you think about this.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:34

    If she places a respectable but somewhat distant third in Iowa and or New Hampshire. New Hampshire is probably a better fit for her. Could she have leverage over either Trump or DeSantisley? Let’s say they’re both in high twenties, low thirties, they’re kind of slugging it out, and you’re headed into South Carolina, her home state where she was a two time governor. Is that a place where she can cut a deal for a VP slot with one of the two front runners?
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:02

    Or is the party so far gone that Nikki Haley’s actually a drag? On a ticket, like somebody like DeSantis. What do you think?
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:10

    Yeah, I don’t see what Nikki Helly offers even in South Carolina. A lot of the polling shows her behind DeSantis and Trump in South Carolina where she’s from. Not to mention that we’re pretty sure that Tim Scott is gonna jump into the race. Right? That’s true.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:22

    I don’t know exactly she might help Trump in terms of winning over suburban women who he’s lost. Maybe that’s the VP play, but I think the animosity between them is like just so palpable. Between Nikki and Trump? Yeah. I mean, from what I know, he talks more about Tim Scott being a possible BP, I think he dreams that he can win back African American voters.
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:46

    That’s that’s super interesting to me. I guess he has been beating her up a little bit. But I guess for Trump, I guess I felt like it’s kind of a light touch on her. And I I feel like strategically and you can tell me whether or not they think this way. Somebody like her, she she doesn’t cut into Trump, but she could cut into some of the normies who like DeSantis.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:08

    Right? And so, to the extent that Trump benefits ultimately from a larger field, it’s not that I think she could win South Carolina. It’s that I think maybe she’s getting but gentle womanly twelve percent. And the two front runners are locked in tight, and they want that. They want that twelve percent.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:25

    To come out of South Carolina to bounce into Super Tuesday. Because Super Tuesday for the Republicans is such a massive delegate grab — Yeah. — that you kinda gotta go in with some momentum. I don’t know. I mean, I could see her thinking like that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:38

    I don’t really know. What about the idea that she would eat into Rhonda Santos versus Trump. Like, does
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:43

    Trump want her in the field? Yeah. I think he does. She does eat into Rhonda Santos. I think everybody does.
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:50

    And Trump wants to encourage others to get into the race with him. Right? If he attacks Nikki Haley too viciously, you think Mike Pompeo wants to jump in? You know? Right.
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:02

    Do you think, like, Pence wants to get in the race? You think, Tim, Scott, everybody’s already thinking about getting in late anyway. Right? To sort of play it out. And and it’s only an advantage for Trump to have as many people in the ring as possible.
  • Speaker 2
    0:13:16

    Right? I think he’s actually being strategic about this and just kind of like letting her exist and as a way to invite
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:23

    others to get in. You know, you make such a good point though about the timing of people getting in. This is the one thing I kind of give her props for. Is she got in early? Because she knows she’s gotta define herself.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:34

    She’s gotta build her profile. But everybody else is kinda gonna wait. But what do you make of the timeline? Like, when do you think is an op more time for Rhonda Santos or even others to start getting in. You sort of wanna get in early enough that you get some new cycles to yourself — Right.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:49

    — and not become an also ran. But you’re also kinda wanna wait to see if Trump, I don’t know, gets indicted, just dies on the vine, like, what’s And I don’t mean that literally. I meant that figuratively is in terms of waiting with voters. But anything is possible? Anything is possible.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:06

    So, like,
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:06

    what do you think the sequences? The optimal sequences people getting in. Okay. So I think the only person who really has pressure to get in by late May, early June is to Santos? Uh-huh.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:18

    Because I think that if he doesn’t get in, there are gonna be more questions about why he’s not in yet. There are gonna be, you know, stories about is he dithering he really wanna do this or not, there might be lack of confidence in him just, like, from voters, donors. Like, he’s already presumed to be in the race. So if he pushes it past that, late May, early June. I think it’s just not a good look for him.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:41

    So he needs to get in. He’s the only one I think needs to get in then. Others are just gonna be, like, anxious to build their profile and see, like, a news vacuum. Like, I bet you, Mike Pence, and, like, April or something. You know what I mean?
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:53

    Or, like, Mike Pompeo, they get it in April. And Tim Scott probably could wait a little later I mean, there’s a whole other other group, the third rug, I would say, that are sort of like, let Trump and the scientists, kill each other, duke it out, bloody perhaps suicide, murder, mission, maybe only one goes down, but the one that survives is weekend. Right? People are turned off by the whole thing. The other few they can’t even make any noise because they’re so overshadowed by the fight, the slug tests that’s going on.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:29

    So, you know, they become really non factors. If their campaigns even last
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:33

    until the fall. Right? So you’re saying people they get bloodied up, and and Christian is just like and now come August. People just gonna want some sunroof. Exactly.
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:42

    Like, suddenly, that’s what they’re gonna want. That’s the thinking. Yes. Exactly. Like, great stuff.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:46

    I’m hearing this from Chris Christie Land. Okay. From Rick Scott World, you know, he’s got the money and he’s using all this time building his profile. He could jump in, get on the ballot. It’s a lot about money to get on the ballot.
  • Speaker 2
    0:15:58

    You know, at that point. And, yeah, there’s a feeling of, like, can you be the Rick Perry late entrant? And jump in and surge and sure you miss the debate, but it doesn’t matter because everybody’s lying on the floor dead. Yeah. This is a this is a thinking right now.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:16

    I I could see that. I just Rick Perry never became president. Exactly. No. That guy never became president.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:22

    But At the same time, every cycle is different. And I think there’s a feeling that does it make sense to jump into the pen? You’re probably not even gonna be heard if you if you get in there.
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:32

    I I really agree with you on this idea that there’s gonna be, like, heaps. Like, there’s gonna be this, like, early heat, and there’s gonna be this, like, middle tier your Pompeo’s, your penses, maybe Christie. They don’t have anything else that they’re doing except books and whatnot. And then there’s gonna be like the governor’s seat. Like, everybody gets done with their legislative session.
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:52

    I’ve interested in this idea that you actually think there’s like a tail heat of people who are like, oh, are you all running it? Nobody can break twenty five percent? I’ll get in and be the last man. That that’s interesting. If you’re rich enough, you can pull it off, I think.
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:05

    Sure. Sure. I don’t know if it’s Republican primary voters are clamoring for that Rick Scott.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:11

    No. I don’t know. It’s kind of like if there was you know, an opportunity for anyone. It does seem like the wealthier candidates get in later. Remember Bloomberg got in.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:20

    Again, they never win. Totally. They never win, but you have that luxury of sort of feeling out the field. Yeah. Totally.
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:28

    Alright, Susan, I wanna dive in to how our groups talk about
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:31

    DeSantis. So your colleague and a previous guest on this show, Peter Hambly, reported recently that two people in DeSantis’ orbit are starting a super pack. One of the most concrete signs yet that he’s looking seriously at running, which I guess as you keep saying, we all presume that he is. So we’re gonna hear from some maybe Trump voters. We talked to over the last couple months, so these are Trump twenty sixteen and twenty twenty voters that are considering a move away from Trump.
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:56

    And if you’ve listened to any of the previous episodes of this show, a lot of the themes here will sound really familiar. Let’s listen.
  • Speaker 5
    0:18:03

    This sentence right now has a lot of momentum. Ideally, I’d love for Trump to get it now. We have eight years to say it’s a fester. But we need a person who has a moment to mouth if we really wanna go for a win and the fact that he can’t with his endorsements came and get congresspeople elected. That doesn’t do well for us.
  • Speaker 5
    0:18:21

    We need somebody who can get not only presidential, but also get house incentive fees elected.
  • Speaker 8
    0:18:26

    I’m not going to pretend to be that versus policies, but to what Michael said, I think he handled COVID and the pandemic. Just in a stellar way. I think he appeals to sort of that all American family. You know, he’s got a strong core his family units intact, all of that. That’s something that appeals to me.
  • Speaker 8
    0:18:50

    In addition to his political viewpoints.
  • Speaker 9
    0:18:55

    So I think what the scientists has managed to do is to say things in a a more polite stance and has managed to not offend as many people as Trump has. So I think if he were to get in the race, I think he would definitely have the stronger card. I think about what about if there were a Trump, the Santa’s ticket, and I think it would be a good idea because I think, you know, one thing of why we don’t want anything to happen to Biden is we know what’s behind him. And Lord knows if we don’t want bite and we sure don’t want the next one in in office either. I’m a little hesitant, but But, yeah,
  • Speaker 6
    0:19:41

    I would vote for DeSantis and Harvey. I’d like to see Ron DeSantis jump into it. I think he has a lot of the same ideologies and views as Trump and relates to people in that way even though he is like a career politician. He doesn’t come across that way. I just think he’s a lot more polished and relatable to people who like Trump, but not hell he sends his message.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:08

    Trump
  • Speaker 10
    0:20:08

    doesn’t bother me at all. I mean, sometimes he does. Sometimes I feel like he’s being like a child. But as long as he’s saying something that is were saying I’m okay with it. But ninety five percent of people I talk to don’t feel that life.
  • Speaker 10
    0:20:19

    They just they’re done with them. And I feel like the scientists wouldn’t have as much drift. Like, the Democrats wouldn’t always be trying to catch them in something. I mean, they will, but they won’t as badly as they’re still doing with Trump.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:34

    We just grabbed a random five. They always say the same thing. Like, this Trump without the baggage. He’s more electable. You know, we’re on the same is still a fighter.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:42

    It’s all there. So, Tara, you and your colleagues, you know, when you talk to DeSantis world, how does DeSantis run against Trump? Is he gonna, like, gold watch him to death? Like, Trump is the greatest president of our time, but you need somebody electable because you can hear how receptive the voters are to the electability message? Or does he need to take him on hard?
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:02

    You know, I’m watching Nikki Haley do this weird strategy where she never criticizes Trump. He’s great, but we just need generational change. And I really am talking about Joe Biden, but obviously I’m also kind of talking about Trump. So how does the stance just take them on? Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:17

    I think electability is huge. When you’re out of power, electability becomes a bigger issue. Republicans are out of power and they they’re coming off like a very bruising election that I’m actually surprised to hear from the focus group that they attribute that to Trump. I wasn’t sure if voters truly understood that he was picking candidates and endorsing the wrong type of candidates. But it seems like it has.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:41

    And so that’s a huge asset for broader scientists. That is going to be the standard a strong suit. Like, just calling Trump a two time loser, which, you know, you hear Democrats say it, but, like, Republicans have suffered because of it. Electorally. So I think it has a bit more of a punch now.
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:59

    So
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:59

    you think he’ll take him on directly. Like, you think you’ll say, look, this guy is losing things for us, because like Nikki Haley is saying, hey, we’ve lost seven out of the eight last popular votes, but she’s not saying because of Trump. Like, do you think DeSantis has the gumption to say, look, Trump’s been costing us elections. We can’t keep going down this path, or do you think he will lie to it kind of the same way I expect a lot of these other candidates to do it? I
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:22

    think the rubber’s gonna have to hit the road at some point, and I don’t think it’s gonna happen now. But I think eventually, Sarah, like, when they’re in the debate stage, like, he saves that for that moment. You know what I mean? So I agree with this sort of except for the idea of being sure Trump’s gonna debate. Like, I guess he does if he thinks that DeSantis is crappy at it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:41

    Yeah. That’s Trump’s, like, strength. It would be, like, ridiculous if he didn’t get on the debate stage. Like, what is he doing this for? Right.
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:47

    I think you say bad ammo before when you’re on the debate stage. You know, it’s already out there. You can have other people say it. Like, it’s just so obvious, but then you actually, like, nail him with it when he’s going after your wife and, like, God knows what. Electability is huge.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:03

    It’s way more important when you’re out of power. I agree with this. And I agree with it mainly because I’ve listened to voters say it over and over again. For like the last six months. They think, look, not everybody, but there’s a big chunk of voters, the ones that watch a lot of Fox News where they have heard other Republicans, other people on the right talking about, like, man, we can’t keep losing.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:22

    We’ve lost three elections in a row, and they are internalizing that. They’re frustrated by it. And especially the way that the right sort of catastrophizes around Biden, Biden’s existential threat. Like, if you think Biden’s existential threat, then you wanna win. And so I think that DeSantis’ electability argument is his best one.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:40

    It really comes through with the voters. But I will say, I also hear, like, beginnings in the groups of what I think DeSantis’ vulnerabilities are. So Donald Trump came up with a nickname Ron DeSink demonious — Yeah. — is not his best book. Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:54

    Does does these nicknames go? Although it’s meatball, I don’t
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:58

    know, is that racist? Is it an Italian slur? Oh, is it is he Italian DeSantis? I don’t know. I should know this as a fellow Italian American.
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:05

    Right? I think it’s more of a meant to be a physical slight, but, you know, he’s always kind of made fun of Ron secretly for being, like, overweight. It’s funny to hear Trump box and one for being overweight, but he does it anyway. Right? And he’s always kind of thought that Ron was not that tall, just another
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:21

    hit on on
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:23

    Ron. So I’m not surprised me, Paul, kind of makes it makes sense. Sure. He’s just testing it. He’s a luxury of that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:28

    You know, I think that meatball tends to be sort of closer to the mark in general, but I did think to sink demonious, that’s a big word for Trump to pull. And honestly, I think it’s pretty on the nose. Like, listen to Rob DeSantis’ ad that he put out that felt like kind of like a beginning of a presidential campaign ad?
  • Speaker 11
    0:24:50

    Yeah. On the eighth day, God looked down on his planned paradise and said, I need a protector. So God made a fighter. God said I need somebody willing to get up before dawn. Kiss his family goodbye, travel thousands of miles for no other reason than to serve, the people.
  • Speaker 11
    0:25:13

    To save their jobs, their livelihoods, their liberty, their happiness. So God made a fighter God said I need someone to be strong, advocate truth in the midst of hysteria, someone who challenges conventional wisdom and isn’t afraid to defend what he knows to be right and just. So god made a fighter.
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:40

    Oh god. Oh god is right. Sorry. That I thought that was a spoof. Honestly, Sarah, it took me a minute to actually think that was real.
  • Speaker 2
    0:25:47

    Have you not seen that at? I think I got a whiff of it, but had not listened to it, like, that. You know what I’m saying? Like, you know, sometimes in your in this business, you read about things, but you never, like, actually watch it or listen to it? I do.
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:02

    And then would you actually take it in as if I was a target of that message? I have a different emotions. Oh, yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:26:08

    Yeah. I mean, that is the cringiest thing I have ever heard. And it’s one of the things —
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:13

    Yep. —
  • Speaker 1
    0:26:13

    got a few little markers that I’ve laid down over time that have made me really question. Rhonda Santos’ political instincts, there’s a lot in the column of these are good political instincts. Like, he’s doing this correctly. But, like, every now and then, like, he drops an ad like this. And I’m like, who goes for this?
  • Speaker 1
    0:26:29

    But, you know, I always say, you know, I found Trump completely repellent, and lots of people find him charming and charismatic. So I don’t always have the right nose for this in terms of these voters. But you alluded to this earlier, and your colleague Tina Winn wrote last summer about how Ron’s wife, Casey is a top advisor of his, and a driver of his political career. I think in the piece, she said, helping to package far right outrage over masks, vaccine mandates, and critical race theory, for a megalight audience. It also sounds from that ad like the desantises can be a bit high on their own supply, So from the newsletter you published this week, it looks like Trump may be attacking Casey Soon, and you alluded to that earlier.
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:09

    You also wrote, if there’s one thing everyone in DeSantis world knows, you never cross Casey. So can you just tease that out? Tell us more about that. Okay. So
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:20

    I mean, there’s already a, like, a whisper campaign going on right now about perceived scandals around Casey, this answers, which I don’t really wanna go into because some of them go pretty low, and I don’t think are worth airing, although I’m sure eventually they’ll make it on to the debate stage knowing Trump. Right? But I think they see her as a target and someone that Ron can’t step away from the most obvious. She’s a puppet master. She’s the one who created him.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:45

    Ron doesn’t do anything without Casey. Normally, a little bit of truth to that, maybe not the public master thing, but that it’s a packaged deal, more so probably than most president’s tenants in their houses. Then there’s just like the kind of stuff that they’re spreading around. But I think there’s a real feeling that Casey is a way to ignite Ron and to go to him and to get him into the ring with Trump, which is what he really wants right now. He wants to fight with Ron DeSantis.
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:11

    And so they’ve sort of targeted that. I think it’s a strategy. It hasn’t happened yet, but it will. They will eventually go after her. They are already putting out info
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:20

    on her now. I have a question on this idea that Trump wants to go DeSantis into the race. Let’s say, hypothetically, DeSantis didn’t get in the race. Isn’t that better for Trump? Like, DeSantis is the only one mounting any opposition, and I gotta tell you, we’re gonna get into some of the group’s criticisms of DeSantis, but one of the things I wonder a lot about is, let’s say, DeSantis doesn’t live up to the hype.
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:43

    Do those votes go to Nikki Haley? Do they go to Tim Scott? I don’t think so. Right now, I think they go back to Trump. And so why would Trump want to go to him into the race?
  • Speaker 1
    0:28:54

    Like, explain that thinking. Okay. So I
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:57

    think it’s pretty clear that he is running, so I don’t think it’s an option of not getting in. I think the earlier he gets him in, the earlier he can sort of take him out. I think Trump doesn’t think that Ron can really take him on. Trump, like, needs an enemy. He thinks that Ron is not as strong as he is.
  • Speaker 2
    0:29:14

    I think his instinct is to get him in the ring. He knows he’s gonna run anyway. So I think that’s his feeling is get him in now, not
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:22

    on his time, not on his schedule. Do it now and do it early. That’s super interesting. I mean, I guess I could see that. Right?
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:29

    If you are Trump and you look at the scientists and you think I made this guy, This guy’s whole career is built on an invitation of me. The second he gets in, I’m gonna reduce him to rubble. What you want is to make that happen as quickly as possible, as opposed to what’s happening right now where Ron DeSantis is not running and climbing in the polls and being seen as the best alternative to you. That makes sense to me as a theory, I guess. If it’s obvious he’s gonna get in.
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:59

    So with that in mind, Trump’s attack on DeSantis, I got to say, we did a group this week that was a weird group because it was these two time Trump voters. And anytime we just do a straight screen for two time Trump voters, they, for months now, have been basically saying the same thing. Don’t really want Trump to run-in twenty twenty four, think it should be DeSantis. Trump has too much baggage. DeSantis is Trump without the baggage, and we really like him.
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:29

    But this group was kind of down on DeSantis, and I wondered if, like, it’s starting to get in the water, some of the attacks on DeSantis, because listen to how this group was talking about it.
  • Speaker 7
    0:30:42

    As they started to learn more about Rhonda Santos and where he really is on the political spectrum and how he’s voted in the past, Now yeah. I’m not sure I would vote for the man. I like the way he interacts with the press. I like the way he handled the COVID thing in Florida. But, yeah, not so sure.
  • Speaker 7
    0:31:00

    He was one of the number one advocates for the transpacific partnership, which would have absolutely completely destroyed our country. If that’s his philosophy, he seems more like an open borders globalist, Paul Ryan, kind of a guy. Yeah. He have a lot more research before I won’t ever vote for DeSantis.
  • Speaker 4
    0:31:17

    Little concerned from a perspective because he’s still an establishment. And the media gives him extra credit when it’s against Trump, which kinda gives me kinda the sneaky suspicion that they know how to play him or something I don’t believe he handled the COVID situation in Florida. You know, if you wanted to get COVID, you went to Florida kind of thing. Okay. But you know, I also like his little bit of aggressiveness, if you will, by sending flights to other states with people on board, including earlier Massachusetts.
  • Speaker 4
    0:31:53

    Because you, you know, share the wealth. You know, if the borders are open and there’s cities that can take them, send them off.
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:01

    Big points for the Martha’s Vineyard Play, by the way, typically, for around DeSantis across Bogleheads. But this group was, like, kinda down
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:08

    on DeSantis. And It was weird because they were calling him establishment, which is not a thing I’ve heard a lot of, and I’ve wondered if Trump’s machine on the right
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:20

    has started to seed this or whether this was just an outlier group that happens sometimes or whether, like, this is the beginning, like, Rhonda Santos is faced no actual attacks and they’re starting to come. And both Trump and DeSantis are gonna try to, like, outflank each other on the right. DeSantis is trying to do it to Trump on vaccines and things like that. Mhmm. And Trump’s doing it by saying, well, no.
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:43

    No. No. This guy’s a rhino globalist cock, which Donald Trump loves to run against those. Is that
  • Speaker 2
    0:32:48

    where Trump’s going with the attacks? Yeah, I think so. And I think can you be more Trump than Trump? You know what I mean? He always wins on that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:32:55

    He can pinpoint someone as an establishment. Ryano, that’s his thing. Right? Although, this is just subtly doing it. And I think there’s just, like, a lot of whisper campaigns going on with influencers.
  • Speaker 2
    0:33:06

    Oh, this rant has kind of pandemic idea. Some people were vaccinated like Trump or push the vaccine, you know, etcetera. So I think the thing is that Trump can’t really afford to sit on his hands right now and let Rod just had to soak up the glory and rise in the polls and not try to chip at his veneer. Planting those seeds right now, that’s what he’s doing. Sowing doubt about Tandris because you don’t hear a lot of doubt about him, besides him political circles about his ability to be a retail politician, to raise money, you know, etcetera.
  • Speaker 2
    0:33:33

    It’s charisma and ability on the debate stage. I don’t think voters think so much about that, but if you start planting seeds about personality flaws, issues, who is the real DeSantis, that’s what Trump should be doing, I guess. If you see him as a real viable challenger. And I think in the meantime, encourage the Nikki Haley’s, the Mike Pence’s, and the Mike Pompeo’s of the world to get in the race.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:54

    Do you think that Ron and Don hate each other? Like, when did the relationship go south? Because I remember the moment that I started to dislike Rhonda Santa. Intensely. And it was when I saw the commercial where it’s this whole thing is just a testament to Trump.
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:08

    He’s with his toddler daughter building a wall out of blocks saying build the wall. He’s reading the art of the deal to his baby and a Trump onesie. Like, it’s very gross. Casey’s in it. And Trump endorsed him and, like, when did the relationship start to sour and,
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:24

    like, how sour is it now? How good? Oh, it’s so sour. It’s really bad. I mean, also think about this.
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:32

    The person running Trump’s campaign is Susie Wiles who Dasandis, like, had an epic falling out with, and she does no love for him either. So it’s, like, even at, like, what’s the deal
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:41

    with the Susie Wiles thing, actually? Do you have a do you have any any thoughts on that?
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:45

    What do you mean? Like, her status in the campaign? Or Do you know what the falling out was about or why she went to Trump or how that’s manifesting. He he’s sort of leaking something back in the day when she was working for him. He tried to also get her fired from Trump’s campaign.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:01

    I think temporarily did so, but then he brought her back. He was like on a real mission against Susie. He doesn’t like consultants. You gotta work half against Susie Wiles, essentially. So it’s it’s a strong thing when you bought someone on your team at the highest level who also has very little for your for your opponent and also works for him.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:18

    You know what I’m saying? That’s something a lot of former rondesant as people work for Trump now. That is so strange you’d think it would go the other way. No. Because Braun burned a lot of people.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:28

    I mean, I wrote about this for political a while back that there was, like, a support group for scarred, wrong, the scientists staffers. Just has very little use for a staff. He treats them terribly. And he burns them out, and they all have, like, ridiculous stories about what a jerky can be. And Casey’s always been his person anyway.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:46

    Right? That’s Casey has been his general consultant and he’s dismissive. He’s a bit arrogant. He’s kind of what you see, but to your own staff. So, yeah, you’ve got a lot of former raw to sand as people floating out there.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:58

    How does that
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:59

    work? How do you staff a presidential campaign that’s serious You can’t do it with your wife. Like, that’s not enough. She can certainly help, but, like, you need a whole
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:08

    apparatus at that point. Is he capable of having that? Or Yeah. Yeah. People will come to him because he’s, like, a front runner and he has a ton of money.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:16

    So but having a consultant is not the same thing as having people that have been with you if you’re fucking thin for a long time. You know what I mean? Yes. That’s true. I think he he lacks loyalists is what I would say.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:30

    So yeah. I mean, Ron Ron’s prickly. Like, there’s a reason why that’s out there. Like, Trump I know you said he he find him detestable. Most people do, even people who vote for him.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:41

    But there’s a the showmanship. People think he’s funny. There’s something to watch. I mean, there’s a lot of questions about whether Ron can also perform. You know, he didn’t have his own show like the appendices.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:53

    He’s not a natural performer the way that Trump but we’ll see. I mean, this is all stuff we have to see. And I think Trump’s gut is that Ron is a lightweight. Yep. He did endorse him barely one the the governorship the first time around.
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:06

    Sure. He won by twenty points or eighteen points this last time. But, yeah, Trump’s like, I made you. I know what you’re made of. And I can crush you.
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:14

    So let’s talk. You know what I mean? But Ronald says Sassy Governor just got elected. That’s why
  • Speaker 1
    0:37:21

    the baiting of Rhonda Santos to get in earlier. Like, he just sort of can’t until May. It’s not even like you have to get in earlier. You wanna just like
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:28

    encourage the dialogue and the fight and get fans out. And I think Trump wants to so doubt about Ron, not just to supporters, but to donors. He wants to get rid of the appearance of electability and show him, like, I can own this guy, so don’t think he’s a better version of me. Mhmm. Don’t think he’s more electable than
  • Speaker 1
    0:37:48

    me. Do you think Rhonda Santos has always hated Trump or did he start hating him once Trump started attacking him? Probably when, like, Trump took on Susie, I bet. Uh-huh.
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:57

    Got it. You know, and that was right after the January sixth, after the election. You know, Ron was still going to fundraisers at Marlago as of, like, this time last year, and there was a lot of tension and friction there. And now they’re not doing things together, I bet. No.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:12

    Not at all. But, like, it was starting to get to the point where they were, like, okay, Ron, enough to stop coming to Mar a Lago. I think the more the talk was about Ron running him partnering up with Phil Cox, all the stuff. Like, it just started to get to the point where Trump was like, No. You don’t get to hang around with me if you’re gonna run against me.
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:30

    Well, obviously, I I know they’re not hanging out together because if you’re online the way some of us are, you know that recently Trump had this, like, real doozy of an unprovoked attack on DeSantis where he trulced a photo of DeSantis when he was a high school teacher drinking a beer with two possibly underage girls our group
  • Speaker 12
    0:38:51

    largely shrugged off. Let’s listen. I feel like it bids term, take accountability and say, sorry, like, you know, honestly, like, I don’t know. I mean, you never know because, like, I feel like a lot of these politicians are rich. People have black male and stuff on each other.
  • Speaker 12
    0:39:09

    And so, you know, everyone does some stupid things. And I feel like especially around politics and election time, they bring all this out. And it really just depends on how you respond to that. Mean, it’s not like Trump probably doesn’t do anything inappropriate either. I don’t know.
  • Speaker 12
    0:39:26

    I mean, everyone does bad things, I guess. Especially
  • Speaker 4
    0:39:29

    toughball when it comes to that. He’s done it all. Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:32

    Yeah. He’s he’s gonna he’s
  • Speaker 4
    0:39:34

    gonna stack on every level, and he’s still there.
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:41

    They hadn’t really heard about this attack on DeSantis because you really have to be on Twitter to have I think picked it up. But when they did, they were kinda like Oh, yeah. This is the way that people are gonna smear each other. No big deal. What is the deal with this random scientist picture though?
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:57

    And can I just say before we go on that this is what you call a grooming ring, which is when you’re somebody who constantly accuses people of being groomers as Rhonda Santos does, and
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:08

    then somebody’s accuses you of being a groomer? I’m gonna call that a groomer ing. That’s a great line, Sarah. Yeah. It’s amazing that Trump would go there like, especially with his close friendship with Jeffrey Epstein.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:22

    He’s former friendship with Jeffrey Epstein. The groomering, you know, affects everyone. It’s very low. Hanging fruit in Youendo. I’m not surprised, I think he’s gonna go lower than that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:34

    You know, I think this is just the first case of what’s to come. I think this is an escalation where downward decline. It’s like a very sharp slope as to what we’re gonna get from Trump. But, you know, it’s interesting that the the focus group said, why did not deny it? And I kind of felt the same way, like, why wouldn’t you address the the issue?
  • Speaker 2
    0:40:52

    Why not deny it or address it? Maybe that’s I’ve got bad political instincts on that, but I think that was sort of what I was expecting. Well,
  • Speaker 1
    0:40:59

    do you know what the story is? I guess, like, are they under age? Like, was he a a twenty four
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:03

    year old teacher drinking with underage students? Well, that was with the New York Times sort of row in their piece. Did you see that long piece they wrote about?
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:10

    Okay.
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:10

    It’s all coming from a time story, which I’m sure someone in the Trump universe planned it. You know, you should look into to Ron’s time as a teacher. Part of it was at he was known for drinking with with underage kids around the school. That was when they kind of alleged or at least like soft implied as the times does. And so I’m sure Trump team was holding on to that picture, ready to go, that you run, you know, who knows?
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:36

    It’s
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:36

    pretty pretty early to run with that PISA APO. I mean, I guess if it’s already out there, he’s just gonna dig it in with it. But this was a good example of Ron DeSantis, not what did he say? He his response was just like, oh, I don’t attack other Republicans. Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:52

    So he just tried to take the high road. But I don’t know how long
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:55

    he can do that. Well, exactly. And I think it goes back to this idea that, like you said, and which I really hadn’t thought about how much Trump’s attacks on Ron hurt him with his base? And how much did they hurt on? And that’s where I think this whole idea of a suicide mission comes in, you know, a murder suicide mission in which they kill each other and the base has turned off by both of them.
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:17

    So you’re right. You know, talking to you, I think one of the
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:20

    things that strikes me is how important it is to know that the dynamics are not baked. You know, sometimes you can look at this polling and you can think, I don’t know, Trump’s pretty weak. Santus is surging, to Santos is to lose, and like that can still be true and there can still be a lot of other dynamics that are left to play out as this thing really heats up. Terrible, Mary. Thank you so much for joining us today on the Focus Group podcast, and thanks all of you for listening to the show.
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:48

    Go give it a rating on iTunes, Apple Podcasts, wherever you listen, and we will catch you guys next week? Thanks, Sarah. This is Gray. I’m
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:56

    so happy to be on.
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