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Dems Took All the Reliable Voters

February 14, 2024
Notes
Transcript
Dems continue their special election winning streak by flipping expelled Congressman George Santos’ seat. Is it reason to be optimistic for November? And did the GOP sinking the border deal contribute?

Plus, Sarah is back and responds to opinions President Joe Biden is too old and needs to step aside, and the gang debate whether Nikki Haley will ultimately endorse Donald Trump.

Learn more about the Principles First Summit and get your tickets here: https://www.principlesfirst.us

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today.

This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1

    Hello, everyone. Welcome to the next level.
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:05

    I’m J VL here with my best friends, Sarah Sarah Longwell, and Tim Miller of the Bulwark, we are recording on Ash Wednesday. You’re showing
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:17

    me up with my mother with those ashes on your forehead. Sorry, mom. I should have scraped something on there.
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:23

    That was my that was that’s actually the whole re it’s in leviticus. The reason you go to receive ashes is to show up your friends. It says right there,
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:32

    and
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:32

    Moab said to Shiab, make sure the left hand can see what the right hand is doing. Oh.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:37

    I don’t
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:37

    wanna turn this into a
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:38

    real website. That was a masturbation line. I don’t know. It’s not I’ve been a while since I’ve been in grammar school.
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:44

    Last night, special election in Long Island, New York Third.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:49

    It was another
  • Speaker 2
    0:00:49

    one where everybody was chomping at the bit. So that we could finally hit the panic button on Joe Biden. We were gonna let there was gonna be a another a democratic getting wiped out on immigration so we could hit the eject button on Joe Biden. Oh, what’s we we just won again. Oh, we Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:11

    For me. So much winning. J.
  • Speaker 3
    0:01:12

    V. L’s just on the team.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:14

    So much winning. No. I I’m I mean, from the democratic side. Right? You’re a Democrat.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:18

    You’re like, oh, we won again. This is you know, I pulled up I pulled up the twenty sixteen clip of Donald Trump doing his so much winning. And the this whole rift is, like, we’re gonna win on economics. We’re gonna win a win on military. He says that.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:32

    We’re gonna win on military. We’re gonna do so much winning You’re gonna say to me, mister Trump, please. We’re just kind of bored and sick and tired of all the winning. Maybe let us lose once in a while. That’s what Joe Biden is.
  • Speaker 2
    0:01:45

    In thirty eight special elections this year, Democrats are outperforming the partisan lean by plus ten. According to our friends at five thirty eight. And last night, Tom Susie, beat, Swazzi. Yeah. Swazzi beat the moderator.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:01

    You obviously don’t watch cable news. CNN had, like, a nineteen person panel last night analyzing this. So you would have had you would have had the pronunciation
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:09

    by plus eight. Yeah. Just plus eight. Another yeah. Just another sick and tired of winning.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:16

    Which is a sixteen point swing. Yeah. Right? Like Santos one by eight, maybe even a little bit more.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:23

    This is back to, like, twenty twenty. This is, you know,
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:26

    back back to what it looked like when Biden was
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:28

    the top of the ticket.
  • Speaker 3
    0:02:29

    Sorry, Tim. Go ahead.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:30

    Go ahead.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:30

    Tell me what you guys think.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:32

    Well, I mean, I you can over analyze all these things. And so I I think there are two main things that I would take away are one, which is something that we hit every time here, but it’s important to keep hitting, which is that the new demo Coalition is very good for specials. So I don’t know how much it tells about general elections yet. Because the most excited people to vote are the people that are highly engaged and don’t want the country to descend into autocracy. And so they’re turning out in these special elections.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:59

    And so that happened again. And I don’t know. Maybe so you can add on to some of the ramifications of that. And we’ll also say this Swazi, I think there’s some limits to what you can read from messaging strategy. I think a lot of this is national narrative.
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:14

    New York is such an expensive tricked. Like, there are there were advertisements as you said JBL, you saw some during jeopardy. So people were able to to see the messaging, but Swazzi leaned in on immigration. And and I think it’s a lesson for Biden now that this this bill has collapsed that, you know, you can’t just wish it away. And Liz Smith, who is our friend of the pod, wrote that, like, in twenty twenty two in the Santos race, the Democrats kind of ignored crime, which was the you know, hot button du jour du jour then and and just tried to make it about abortion and just didn’t talk about the crime in New York City.
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:48

    And that didn’t work. And here we are at this time, twenty twenty four, Swazi really linked into immigration, the migrants that were coming to the city, how he want had a plan to address it, wanted to address that is not part of the far left. And I and I think that’s something that Biden’s gonna have to do to, looking ahead to this year. So those are my two main takeaways.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:05

    But, Tim, what is Biden gonna say? Like, I I did this really hard line immigration bill, and Republicans refused to pass it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:04:12

    He’s gonna have some exec. He’s gonna have to do some executive orders too and and that. Yeah. That and a couple of actions. He’s gonna have to do both of those two things.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:20

    Sarah Longwell you think?
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:21

    So let me just add one thing to what Tim was saying, because this is really true. And it’s one of the reasons you don’t wanna over interpret the specials versus the national elections. Number one, like, a lot of it comes from the political realignment that’s been going on. Right? So these red dog Democrats which are like the never trumpers, that are now voting Democrats.
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:40

    They tend to be college educated, suburban voters, a little bit older, and they show up to vote all the time. And they are highly engaged. And so one of the things that Democrats picked up in the swap where they lost a lot more sort of non college educated white voters. They picked up these college educated suburban voters. That is a good swap for them in special elections.
  • Speaker 3
    0:04:59

    It is less good for them in national that include more low info voters, which is why you shouldn’t over interpret this in terms of what it means for Joe Biden in the national election coming up in twenty point four. That said, I was struck by the polling and how close it was. Like, eight points is not a small margin of victory. And thank you, Sebastian. Santos wanted by seven point six points in twenty twenty two.
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:24

    So, yeah, you’re looking at almost a sixteen point swing. I’ve seen a lot of people remarking on the fact that there was a storm but it doesn’t look like turnout among Republicans was down. It looks like plenty of Republicans turned out It’s just that they voted for the Democrat. Right? These sort of right leaning independents.
  • Speaker 3
    0:05:43

    These are the people, and I just wonder. And, you know, just all caveats about over interpreting, but I’m interested in what you guys think. Every time there’s one of these special elections, it feels like there is a bit of a primal scream against Trump and, like, the idea that this was, like, there were all kinds of reasons why this was a weird election, like, Santos was super high profile and a crazy candidate. So, like, some of this is backlash against Santos. So I don’t wanna open up.
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:10

    Long Island is also not particularly representative of what other other types of people that are in other swing districts.
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:16

    That’s right. All of those things. And, like, there right. Like I said, there was a snowstorm although, like, there didn’t, like, a Republican pack pay to have them, I mean, plow in Republican districts to make sure Republicans can get out. Okay.
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:28

    Doesn’t it feel though, like, every like, the margins are just so big in some of these specials like the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. It’s not just that the Democrat won in Wisconsin. It’s the margin was very large. And so you gotta wonder, and I have been wondering if, a, how good and representative the polling is. Like, I’ve come I’ve been wondering for a while if remember in twenty sixteen, the polling was all off because nobody could seem to find the trump voters and there were all these conversations around Boy, do they hide from pollsters?
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:59

    Do they not wanna tell? Do they not wanna admit it? They seem to be perfectly fine now finding Trump voters. And I’m not sure they’re not oversampling them to some degree, because they don’t seem to be capturing in any of these special elections. Just how large the margins are against them, including in twenty twenty two.
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:16

    Same thing.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:17

    What do you what do you think? Yeah. I think it’s hard to get to gauge turnout in these things. Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:21

    Like No. It is.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:22

    You know, so it’s engaging likely voters. That’s a lot of you’re making a judgment call. You know, you’re asking people. Some people do the thing where it’s like, rate on skill for one to ten. How like though.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:30

    And some do the very likely somewhat, then you gotta judge at the somewhat likely people. Do we include them? You know what I mean? And so there’s a lot of math nerds that figure this stuff out. I I think that that is a challenge in these elections.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:40

    And whereas in the Trump race, the challenge was there was non response. There was you know, the the the the makeup of the electorate changed so much in twenty sixteen that I they’re modeling to a wrong electorate. Right? So I think that part, all all of that is part of the problem. I don’t know.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:56

    The the thing the caution light on this for me, and and we were talking about this Slack was that our friends at split ticket that analysis they did of the Nate cone poll, right, which is the the polls, the New York Times polls show Biden plus four with people who’ve ever voted in a midterm or special election. Yes. And Trump plus ten with people that only vote for in in general elections.
  • Speaker 3
    0:08:20

    Right.
  • Speaker 1
    0:08:20

    So that was like a flashing flashing red light. And and again, again, that now, you you can’t you can over interpret that, but I think that is the major caution when you look at this democratic win streak?
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:30

    I think it might have been Trump plus den among the people who have either never voted or That’s already voted in This is right. Presidential elections. And again, like, so you’re saying, okay, they’ve never voted before, but maybe they’ll vote this time, maybe they want and and again, who knows? Right? It is certainly true that you can expect Republicans to do better in a general than than they well, and you can expect the down ballot Republicans to really outperform.
  • Speaker 2
    0:08:58

    Right? Because the down ballot Republicans are gonna get all of those people who are nontraditional Trump voters who are brought in just for the first time to do that. Plus they’ll get a fair number of red dogs who are gonna vote at the Biden at the top of the ticket and then, you know, check the box for the Republican who’s there their guy or their gal in their district. So, yes, I can see.
  • Speaker 3
    0:09:20

    I just know that if your name is Mike Waller, who’s the Normandy Republican in the District Dover, I was watching the CNN coverage, and he was on talking about how Macy Phillips was just absolutely gonna win this. No question. And You know, I think he’s in trouble. He’s in he is. He’s not.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:36

    Yeah. Make a point. This is a great point to bring up. You know, sometimes I feel like, like, I want we want this Right? So I I’m always like, am I pushing for what my priors want or or am I accurately assessing the political landscape?
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:48

    And I think in this case, it’s both It’s, like, all of these Republican political consultants kept saying, like, you have to act like, ma’am, as Mayzie Philip pill up did or however you say her name. And you have to act like Mike Walller does, which is Take these votes on my orchis, you know, to, like, swallow all the trump stuff. No. Don’t create only softly criticize them. And and all that has led to is loss after loss, after loss, after retirement to these people in these districts.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:16

    And so I could not somebody try. I feel like I’ve been saying the same thing for nine years. You don’t have to be Tim. Okay. You don’t have to troll Donald Trump at every possible opportunity and and ask when the last time he saw his dick was and, like, you know, call him a rapist and all that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:28

    But could we try? Could should shouldn’t the Mike Lawavis of the world be looking at that special election last night being like, man, maybe I shouldn’t have voted to impeach Alejandro mayorkas. Yeah. Maybe I should take a few opportunities. To distance myself from the party.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:42

    And and maybe there’s a middle ground here where you can run, you know, a more a campaign that has a little bit more integrity and dignity and truth to it, you know, that without sacrificing, You know, I mean, obviously, you’re go are you gonna really loo are those at the end of the day, are those mega people really not gonna vote for you? You know? I I don’t know. I think there’s a lot more room to distance yourself from Mega. If you’re a candidate like Law or and for some reason, he’s taking this Republican consultant conventional wisdom that you got us you know, ride with Trump, which has, like, just let everybody led them to disaster now for five straight elections.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:19

    Swann Swannazzi’s pitch was I work with people
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:24

    on both sides of the IL to get things done, which
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:28

    is also the Biden pitch. Right. And, you know, I I listened to, your focus group with Joe Pertacone, our buddy, this and there were a lot of This was this was all about Congress. And a lot of Trump people were talking about, you know, we need people who are gonna get stuff done. Now, I thought to myself, you know, there’s a revealed preference versus a voiced preference aspect to this, but they are voicing the preference that they want something done.
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:53

    Right? There there’s one woman who’s like, you know, why aren’t Why aren’t they doing anything about health care costs?
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:57

    And I
  • Speaker 2
    0:11:57

    was like, I there’s a president who’s done something about health care costs right now.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:01

    He passed
  • Speaker 2
    0:12:01

    a whole bunch of legislation about this. This is why insulin prices have been capped. And I wonder if maybe these people are in a weird way, not not a lot of them, but maybe two percent of them are reachable on stuff like that. Swazzy did okay by saying, look, I get stuff done.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:17

    I’m so glad you brought up the focus group pod with Joe Pertacone. It has sort of a boring title because it’s about Congress, but I want you people to go listen to this one because it’s super interesting. And the reason that it’s super interesting is actually JBL. I don’t even think it’s revealed preference versus stated preference. I think they state both preferences.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:35

    The craziest thing about these voters, these were trump voters who followed Congress. Like, they knew who their Congress person was, and they tended to Bulwark were screening for districts where they had kind of a Maga performative person. Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:12:48

    Gates.
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:48

    So it’s an Andy Bigs’ district and MTG’s district and, yeah, Gates’s district. But what was so interesting is people would say in one breath, Why can’t they get anything done? And then in the other graph, they would say, I do not want them to compromise. We want them to fight Right? And so it is a detached they have detached the mechanism for getting things done, which is compromise and negotiation.
  • Speaker 3
    0:13:12

    From, like, the outcome, which is that things get done. Right? Like, they they want the outcome, but they will not use the they they issue the mechanism to get there. And they also said, like, they also be derisive about the idea that it’s a circus. Like, they’d be like, oh, you know, it’s just such a mess and they’re always yelling at each other and that’s so stupid.
  • Speaker 3
    0:13:30

    But also my favorite things that they’ve done are in peach fighting. You know? So, like, on one hand, right, they they they condemn the performative, but also demand the performative. And I think I don’t disagree with Tim’s point about Waller, but I do wonder if it’s just getting super impossible, for candidates like law. Like, there’s a reason that Mike Gallagher is tapping out, right, is that they don’t know how to walk this line.
  • Speaker 3
    0:13:47

    You punch
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:55

    truck they’re those. They’re not trying.
  • Speaker 3
    0:13:56

    That’s true. They’re not trying. It’s true. No. There’s no way for us to game this because nobody’s really done it except for like Liz or somebody.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:05

    Yeah. Axiom for our friend, Michael Wood, that I wrote about. It’s like eventually you have to choose. You either, you know, go full MTG or full Liz or full news Max or full Liz was his line. But and maybe that’s right.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:14

    Maybe that’s true that you end up there. But there is not really seem to be anybody that fits in the Gallagher kind of mold that that tries to do the. Remember when Trump first went in, they said ball we’re gonna call balls and strikes. I’d like to see that. I’d like to see somebody call some strikes.
  • Speaker 1
    0:14:32

    You know, and see how that turns out. Okay. Maybe that maybe maybe they turn into Liz eventually. You know, maybe that leads them to death, but I I, you know, it would be interesting to see somebody give it a shot because if if nobody gives it a shot here in the next two years, we’re gonna end up with an entire Congress full of you know, Lauren Bulwark and Matt Yatesis, which might be where we’re headed anyway.
  • Speaker 3
    0:14:53

    Which is where we’re headed. You know, I I tweeted something because I was just thinking about how because I was watching our, you know, Abigail’s fan burger, and I’m watching Alyssa slotkin’s race. You know, she’s running for senate. There was this class, this very impressive class that also included some squad folks.
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:08

    And the squad folks got all the attention, but there was like
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:08

    this a really incredible twenty team class of legislators on the Dem side that were incredibly moderate,
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:17

    that won in swingy districts, and it was a lot
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:17

    of women who were like CIA analysts, and helicopter pilots.
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:24

    Cheryl.
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:24

    Yeah. It’s Mikey Cheryl. It’s Alyssa Slockens, Abigail Spannberger. Then, and there’s more. There’s a bunch of them.
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:29

    And there’s there’s there’s dudes too. I always say to women’s names because they’re the ones that impressed me the most, but and now, you know, you got Josh up your ass when the body trumps smoke clears eventually, you’re gonna look around and you’re gonna receive a Republican party that has been just absolutely brain drained. Right? And the Mike Gallagos are gone. The everybody that you think of who’s like a serious person, they are gone gone, but even like a Kevin McCarthy.
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:50

    Like, they’re out And on the democratic side, they’ve been growing this crop of congressional leaders who are now running for senate, running for governor at like Abigail Spamers running for governor of Virginia. She’s very likely to be the next governor of Virginia, which means that they’re gonna have this enormous class to join the Jared Polices and the warnocks who are already governors’ Whitmer, you know, that are governors in swing states, that are normie pragmatic and the Republicans are gonna be just like filled and replete with psychopaths.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:24

    Will that matter though? And I’m I’m not trying to be like, a jerk about this. But I I mean, it very seriously, will it matter? Because the Republican voters have decided, like, they voted with their feet. They don’t want pragmatic.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:38

    They don’t want the Mike Gallagher of the world.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:40

    No. But Democrats do.
  • Speaker 2
    0:16:41

    Right. No. Democrats do. But ultimately, at the end of the day, when it comes to like, we’re so gerrymandered, and, like, maybe it just won’t matter.
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:50

    I think it matters in the sense of, it’s it’s a rebuttal to the snapback people. Right? But it’s like the people that the Democrats have gained that turned out to vote for Tom Swazzy that, you know, in the past had voted for Republicans. You know, when the smoke clears there’s some of them, they’re like, oh, you know, I’m still kind of I’ve got this little Republican, this little elf in the back of my brain. I’m like, well, this we’ll just see, you know, and then I’ll I’ll go back.
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:12

    And it’s kind of like, won’t be anybody left for them to go back to. It will solidify the realignment. I think it’ll matter in that sense. It won’t matter in the sense that like the Republican party is dead and the earth is salted and no, you know what I mean? It’s not It’s just that it I think that it’s gonna solidify the realignment of the Trump years.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:27

    I also think though it’s gonna solidify the I think it’s gonna take a long time. Right? We’re like, it’s both a chess game and, like, turning the Titanic, but so much of the voter sentiment is, like, fumes of the past parties And so it’s gonna take a while, but at some point, people are gonna look up and say, oh, the new crop of Democrats are pretty normal. They are not socialists. They’re not, you know, crazy people.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:50

    Whereas the Republicans, there’s nobody else to point to anymore to be like, but this person’s still normal. Like, mitt romney’s still there. No. He’s not. Like, they’re all gone.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:59

    Yeah. And you’ve got a pretty normal Democratic party overall. This is why I think it’s very important that people get rid of Gavin Newsom as soon as possible. Start elevating these other people.
  • Speaker 1
    0:18:09

    What? Just one quick sentence on this. I and it was, Mark Wayne Mullen, the center from Oklahoma. So last night, pointed out that None of the Republican senators under fifty five voted for the aid package. And I thought I thought it was an interesting kind of sell own kind of.
  • Speaker 1
    0:18:25

    But, like, his point was like, this is where the party’s moving. And my point’s like, yeah, that’s where the party’s moving. And so, you know, it’s even it’s true in the sun.
  • Speaker 2
    0:18:32

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    0:18:36

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    0:19:32

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  • Speaker 2
    0:20:05

    Sarah Longwell had a show last week without you. And it was great. Not as great as, as it would have been with you. But, I feel like we we have to give the people your response to the to the big stuff, which is the the Robert Her report about Joe Biden, the well meaning elderly gentleman And then, and then to Bulwark Crystal’s bomb on, how gotta get gotta get Biden out of there.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:35

    Can I just say before we get Sarah’s advice? Before we get to Sarah, can I just, people sometimes, like, you’re starting a media? You have a media company. It’s like we have critics. Like, you guys are griff dollars.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:45

    You’re just giving your people what you want. And here we go, and Charlie Sykes it’s like, okay. And it’s like Bill Crystal is gonna take over the newsletter. And I sent this to it. I was like, He could have picked any topic in the world for his first newsletter, and his first newsletter is, hey, they’re buying lovers.
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:01

    I think I wanna kick them off stage, and we’re gonna replace them with an imaginary person. And everybody in the comments is like, what? What is happening? And so, you know, if we if we were running a a comfort food slash new scripting news out out outfit. Maybe it would have, you know, the editor, the publisher maybe might have told Build, to start on a different note, you know, maybe something a little less controversial.
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:23

    But, no, that’s not how we do it here.
  • Speaker 3
    0:21:26

    Definitely not. And also, but here’s the thing is, reading that. I mean, I talk to Bill about this all the time. I know what he thinks. I express my belief in his wrongness.
  • Speaker 3
    0:21:36

    I’m on a regular basis. And so, you know, speaking of media companies, lots of them, everybody sits around and agrees on everything. He and I have thought about this, like, with elevated voices on more than one occasion. Just out of just strategic difference. Here’s the thing.
  • Speaker 3
    0:21:56

    Did you guys talk about this? I I mean, I listened to the while I was falling asleep. You guys didn’t talk about this because this came out after. Right? The whether or not we think Biden should step aside.
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:06

    But I talked about it on Monday with Bill and AB and JVL talked about AB. Maybe we didn’t do it on last week’s hard to know. Every day is a lifetime here. I I
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:16

    don’t expect. I’m glad that you listened to the next level while you were gone, but I don’t expect you to have to have read any of the the newsletters that I wrote every single day.
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:24

    I did.
  • Speaker 3
    0:22:24

    I read I read your your you didn’t so much pushback as, like, pick a different topic. That that was probiotic. He didn’t take it on sort of straight on, which is fine. It was nice not to, you know, go nuclear back on the first day, but Here’s the thing that I just went, if biden, we’re to step aside. The flaw, I mean, this is, remember when we were on stage with Carville, Carville, also, so drives to this theory of, you know, Joe Biden steps aside.
  • Speaker 3
    0:22:50

    Boom. We get the the centrist Democrats Which
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:54

    land drive.
  • Speaker 3
    0:22:54

    Of our dreams. Which land was just there. The Whitmer Shapiro ticket emerges that they’re not currently running states as governors. Here’s what happens if Joe Biden steps aside. There are two possibilities and only two.
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:10

    One, his current vice president, Kamala Harris, becomes the nominee And she is less popular and defeated. Like, if you even assume that Joe Biden’s gonna get defeated, she’s gonna whatever Joe Biden’s gonna do, she’s gonna do five points worse.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:26

    Oh, maybe two points. Two points. I don’t know about five. Okay. Okay.
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:30

    Whatever. Hypotheticals. There’s hypothetical one. Either two or five points worse than Biden. What’s the what’s the second door, Sarah?
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:37

    Is it a pony?
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:38

    The second door is a man named Gavin Newsom. Who has been waiting for this moment his whole life. And when he thinks this is why he debated Ron DeSantis, I
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:49

    can’t even remember his name anymore. Can you?
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:51

    I know. They they’re gone so fast.
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:55

    Ron DeSantis, so sorry. Thanks for playing. Can I
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:58

    give you door number three? Can I give you door number three for your rent? Because there’s one other option. Nineteen sixty eight on the convention floor in Chicago out with their Gaza protesters, like tackling Gavin Newsom while he comes on stage. And then Jamal Bowman goes up and says, I want you know, and then you know, so we’re on to ballot nine.
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:15

    That’s that’s that’s door number three. That’s so that’s also up there.
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:19

    Yeah. I’m a spit out my teeth. This is the the gap between Biden stepping down and, like, we get fantasy ticket of our dreams that definitely beats Trump, guys. Guys. No.
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:33

    I and I this idea of, like, Biden is indeed old. He is he is only ten years younger than the number of indictments Donald Trump has. Okay? That is that is a lot of years.
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:45

    I thought you were gonna say it’s only ten years younger than the wheel. Was like, I wonder what was well, I wonder what was invented ninety one years ago.
  • Speaker 3
    0:24:52

    Eighty one. Eighty one. Ninety one is the number of indictments. So it’s like he he is and listen, and it would have been great if they had done this particular scenario a year ago, nine months ago, but the idea that, like, Gretchen Whitmer just launches an intact presidential campaign, Also, by the way, you know what? This this idea that everybody’s gonna run against the first female African American Like, they’re wrong.
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:23

    Corey Booker at one time said, he was asked why he, something about running against Kamala Harris, and he was like, like, all the women in my life would disown me. Like, we can be everybody knows, like, you you are risking The reason that it’s Biden, like, there are reasons. There are reasons that it’s Biden, just in competency, It is it is the fact that he has a hundred percent name identification. It’s that his record’s actually pretty good. Is he too old?
  • Speaker 3
    0:25:52

    He is, but like they’re both old. And then, like, one has ninety one indictments and was also a psychopath and, is also a mismanaged of the pandemic lesson Sorry. You have to be able to make that case, and I think it is so weird the way all of and this is not about Bill. This is a different genre of person. But the number of sort of anti anti types who spend all their time talking about Biden and Biden being too old and Democrats walking off a cliff are just ignoring the fact that over on the Republican side, Donald Trump has an actual primary opponent who’s a totally normal Republican, totally normal.
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:27

    And they’re choosing that they’re not spending any time trying to talk people into voting for Nikki Haley or out of voting for Donald Trump. No. No. No. Everybody’s lecturing the Democrats on the incumbent president.
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:38

    And and I and the thing is, like, I’m I’m open to that plenty, but I think there are plenty other I I just this idea that it’s just like, fighting steps aside, things happen, boom, great outcome is, something I disagree with. Both ser,
  • Speaker 2
    0:26:53

    this is this is how the engine of our politics works these days. Everybody works from the assumption that only Democrats have agency. And only Democratic politicians can make hard choices that might make their base upset only Democratic voters can be asked to make decisions, which might not benefit them or might not serve their own prior you know, policy preferences or goals. And on the Republican side, like, the base just has to do it has to vote for Trump. Donald Trump, has to be the way he is.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:29

    He’s a force of nature. Right? And and you can’t you can’t expect Republicans to vote against him because he’s been indicted ninety one times. In fact, everybody should have known that him being indicted would have made those voters just like him more. It’s really weird.
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:45

    Isn’t it isn’t it tantamount to saying that forty percent of the country is insane or dangerous or both?
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:53

    Yeah. And, look, I’m not gonna blame the media, but I do wanna just say also on this sort of asymmetry. This is just judging from my own life. K? I was I was down and out, for a few days.
  • Speaker 3
    0:28:03

    I was kinda kinda off the off the grid. And it happened to be the day this her report came out. And when it did, my phone blew up with reporters being like, well, what are your focus groups saying about this? Like, you know, what and and I’m like, And I I I couldn’t respond. I was just, like, I was indisposed, but I was, like, in my head going, this her report is not teaching people that Joe Biden is old.
  • Speaker 3
    0:28:28

    Like, no one has missed. These voters are not, like, oh, you don’t say it’s in the report that he’s underly. And, and not always it’s not that people can’t see with their own eyes. And so I didn’t think that that was, like, people who I I watched Frank wants his other. This is a disaster for Joe Biden.
  • Speaker 3
    0:28:47

    And I was like, no, his age is his most significant liability. Somebody was raising his most significant liability, And, like, that’s just what’s gonna happen through this race. And, okay, but the point was, I got so many calls about it. Also, I wasn’t exposed. I, Donald Trump, said that, if NATO, which is, by the way, not the way NATO works, but NATO should pay its bills or they can go Russia can go ahead and give them She would encourage them.
  • Speaker 3
    0:29:14

    Do
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:15

    you know
  • Speaker 3
    0:29:15

    how many times my phone rang about that? Zero. And do you know why because people know the question and this is to your point, JBL, the question of but but won’t Republican voters? Would it matter to them that Donald Trump is saying invade Europe. Russia can invade Europe, and we America won’t do anything about it.
  • Speaker 3
    0:29:34

    And the answer is, no, of course, those voters don’t care. It’s complete. Everybody just like says, oh, no, republican voters don’t care that much about this. And so they don’t ask. And it’s like Joe Biden lives in a world where he’s like, oh, somebody acknowledged that he’s old.
  • Speaker 3
    0:29:46

    We must talk about this a lot versus Trump said the most insane thing with real geostrategic implications like implications for NATO for the world order, and everyone’s like, yawn. That’s my rant.
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:00

    That’s a good one.
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:01

    Hard to argue.
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:02

    I like it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:03

    Quick fun fact from Sebastian, stereo records and the first prototype drive in theater are both ten years older than Joe Biden. So that’s a little fun factor.
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:11

    There were no high fives back when he was born.
  • Speaker 3
    0:30:14

    To the same age as Donald Trump’s indictments.
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:19

    Message guru.
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:23

    On the primary that is still happening because Republicans again, they are choosing to do this. In fact, they could stop choosing to do it right now. Right now, they could stop. Donald Trump decided this weekend to make fun of Nikki Haley’s husband who is deployed with the National Guard. Right?
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:40

    Or is it Jabuti? Is it
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:41

    the National Guard of Reserve or what? Born of Africa, Jabuti.
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:45

    Jaburi. Anyway, that’s cool. It’s kinda like I like soldiers who weren’t captured or something. And
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:52

    Suckers and losers.
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:53

    Sure. Like, this is fine. He’s he’s doing so much winning. He’s even doing winning of the military. And, I don’t know what you guys thought about this.
  • Speaker 2
    0:31:01

    Does this is is Nikki Haley gonna wind doing a ted cruise where she gets super indignant on her husband’s behalf? And then, you know, we’re gonna get the picture of her making the phone call. Is that Is that where we’re headed? Or is she being given enough so that she could say no. I’m not gonna do it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:31:19

    Right? And not look like she’s being a petulant, person, but look like she’s doing a just said, you know, like, no,
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:26

    I’m not gonna be attacked like this. And then
  • Speaker 2
    0:31:28

    go and help the guy who we all know is dangerous. Sarah Longwell,
  • Speaker 3
    0:31:32

    we just I was arguing about this with my team earlier. I’m at sixty five thirty five. She endorses. I think there’s a thirty five percent chance she doesn’t endorse. What do you what do you guys put it Jim, do you put three point five?
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:45

    I’d put three point five. Yeah. I’d say ten percent less or ten percent of your point five. Point five. Point five is what
  • Speaker 2
    0:31:54

    I why better. I mean, also, we do have a new win for pullout today showing Trump at plus thirty six in South Carolina. So he’s now ahead more in South Carolina than he was before Nikki’s tremendous second place victory in New Hampshire. That’s great. I don’t quite know what to do with that also.
  • Speaker 2
    0:32:17

    You guys have thoughts on the I mean, it’s really it’s just very hard to to understand what’s going on with all of this.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:24

    Here’s the can I just talk about the dark thing about it before I get into the Nikki Haley analysis? Yeah. Go ahead. And this is in, over on, on on the of the Bork pot, I went out with Dean Phillips. Today, which people should check out if they haven’t yet.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:36

    And and You
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:37

    chose great, by the way.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:38

    Thank you. This was a fundamental disagreement that me and Dean had. Where he is at the view that Republicans should that Democrats and and the media and everybody should be nicer and more considerate to mega voters, and that’s how that you win, and it should be more thoughtful. And I’m like, okay. I’m happy with being nice to mega voters, but, like, we also have to accept reality.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:57

    And, like, there is and when you talk about revealed preference, like, not everybody, not every single megavotor, and I’m not saying that they’re cartoon villains. I’m saying that they have revealed their prevalence of we like it when Donald Trump insults people’s wives and husbands. We like it when he is the alpha male, the Twitter alpha male that puts down somebody that is serving the country even though he you know, lied and pretended like he had bone spurs and couldn’t go serve the country. They like it when he calls somebody’s wife ugly. They like it.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:30

    Like, there’s another there is another group of people of Magavoders that don’t like it that much in vote form anyway. That’s a separate moral and ethical question. We can have Pete Weiner or somebody on to to dig through. But there is a big plurality, majority, cute, big percentage of the republican face that likes this. And and so here we are nine years later, and it’s the me and Nikki Haley is doing the same thing that we did on the Jeb campaign when when Donald Trump made fun of Kalumba.
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:57

    She’s her playbook is exactly the same. I’m outraged. How dare you that, you know, you don’t know any this is this is an American. Right? And and she should do that.
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:06

    That’s the natural response. But it’s like, if you’re thinking that that response is gonna win people over rather than push them into Donald Trump’s arms, you do not understand what the Republican voters have revealed that they want and they want meanness cruelty and asshole a piece of shit. That’s what they want. So that’s where we’re at on this. I don’t like how Nikki responds to that then.
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:26

    I think it’s another question, a psychological question about her and about her career aspirations and all that. But I think it’s important to just say that clearly because even now, like, people aren’t saying that on CNN right now. What we’re doing media criticism? Like, it’s like, people are still after all this time reluctant to say that. Right?
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:42

    Like, like, you still get the pundit round table, so it’s like, might this hurt Donald Trump? Might the Nikki hear anything hurt And they don’t really think that it’s gonna he’s gonna lose because of, like, could it hurt him on the margins? Could it help her get some momentum? And it’s like, no. They like this.
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:55

    Could it maybe hurt him with point five percent of voters in Georgia, you know, of military veterans in Georgia who are swing voters, god willing. You know, God will it be. Even that’s
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:05

    an open question.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:06

    But even that’s an open question.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:08

    When you talked with Dean, did you did you ask him about Merrick Garland? So, Merrick Garland, as you mentioned with, with James Carville and the Tuesday show, Merrick Garland has really bent over backwards to be his unbelievably fair and impartial as possible. He waited for forever to appoint a special counsel in in fact, only did so once Donald Trump declared that he was that he was running for president. And, I mean, has has created a level of insulation on the federal Trump prosecutions that that is the definition of fairness. I don’t get the sense that Magas are saying, well, look, you know, this, we we, of course, defend Donald Trump when we think he’s innocent, but we do recognize that Merrick Garland has done us a solid.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:57

    And, you know, we we appreciate his integrity. I don’t get the sense that that’s a thing that happens ever.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:03

    No? I haven’t seen it on Fox. I’ve been I’ve been trying to watch a little more Fox, and so I’ve I can’t say that I watched twenty four hours. So maybe somebody set it on there, but I I haven’t heard it yet.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:11

    Yeah. Yeah. I don’t think that there’s a lot of credit to be to be gained.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:15

    There was an interesting question. I think this is a different question than kind of doing outrage thing about this. And, somebody sent this to me the other day. I know that we’re supposed to be the norms crowd out here. You know, and it’s like it’s supposed to be good that Merrick Garland did the right thing.
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:29

    Pointed a special prosecutor. It was a Republican special prosecutor. Like, at some point, if this is only one side that’s doing this, like, should Barrcon have had a special prosecutor should Joe Biden have sat down with this guy? Donald Trump didn’t sit down with with Mueller. Like, aren’t if if the threat is so great from the right, like, from Donald Trump, like, should we be giving them rope to follow these norms?
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:55

    I know that the answer is yes. We should, but, man, isn’t something worth re like, thinking about and discussing?
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:03

    Sarah?
  • Speaker 3
    0:37:04

    No. I I don’t think I mean, don’t think you can you don’t wanna live in a world, right, where everybody just says that the norms, but not even just the norms, but like the the bedrock stuff, like, when you are subpoenaed and asked to sit down with a special prosecutor, you do it. I agree, like, Trump didn’t do it, but that is part of why Trump is an un unfit. And I don’t wanna see biden or Democrats mimicking what Republicans are doing because then there’s nothing left. Right?
  • Speaker 3
    0:37:35

    Like, the goal is to defeat Republicans for behaving this way and reestablish the norms. Reestablish the the sense that you live by these laws. I I don’t know. I just
  • Speaker 1
    0:37:46

    I know you’re gonna say that I put it on a platter for you to be the to be the conscience of the podcast but I it’s it’s at some point, it’s like, why did Merrick Garland and Joe Biden give them this? Like, you know, given the given the election?
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:00

    The weird thing to me on this one is this was right after October seventh that he sat down. And it did seem like five hours, I’ve I don’t know. Have you ever sat and talked for five hours? Sorry.
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:14

    I’m yeah. I’m I got a call with the king of Jordan.
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:18

    Yeah. Can you
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:18

    do this in ninety minutes?
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:21

    No. I’m I’m I’m with Sarah
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:22

    on this.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:22

    You gotta hold the norms. I
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:24

    Also, I I think in part, they felt like they were they their whole deal was like we’re doing everything right. Right? Like, we have to establish a contrast between what Trump did, which is he took the documents and then when they asked for them back, said no and, like, did and, you know, and then And we can’t martyr him. Right.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:39

    That was the other thing. So you can’t martyr him.
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:42

    And so by nose, man, I’ve screwed up here. Like, one of the biggest things because he did. That was a problem. This is, like, down in Georgia. What’s her name?
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:50

    Having the, having the relationship with the
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:52

    guy who’s
  • Speaker 3
    0:38:53

    the prosecutor, Bonnie Willis. You know, Biden’s got the documents in his all over the place. He’s showing him to his, biographers. He shouldn’t have done that, and it it’s extra bad in this moment. And so, like, what did he have to do?
  • Speaker 3
    0:39:05

    He needed to it was his obligation to clean it up.
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:08

    And he did.
  • Speaker 3
    0:39:08

    To say, like, yeah, and and he was telling the truth, and that’s why they didn’t bring any charges. I will say, of course, it was dirty pool to have this guy then, like, knock Joe bagging around on his cognitive abilities. I’ll just say, again, when people are like, oh, this is devastating, I’m like, I don’t know. I don’t know that pointing out the single, like, Joe Biden’s biggest liability that everyone knows is his biggest liability and that voters see themselves is like the end of
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:33

    the world. Yeah. Yeah. It’s like a game continuum.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:36

    Yeah. I had some advice for him. I don’t know. You probably didn’t read it, Sarah, but, some some advice for the administration, how to handle this.
  • Speaker 3
    0:39:43

    I read it. I don’t answer on it. It was great advice.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:46

    Yeah. Thank you. Tim, happy end of Marty Graw. Yeah. Marty goes home.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:53

    Do you wish somebody an end of Marty Girl? What what is I I don’t even understand. I don’t understand anything about Marty.
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:59

    Tyler is, I didn’t get to do the full Mardi gras like Tyler did because we’re I’m just out here churning out this content for all of our, listeners who I love. Tyler’s pretty down today. He’s got the Sunday scare, the post Marty Groace. The Ash Wednesday Skaries. But, you know, I’ve been kinda slowly landing the plane for a little while now.
  • Speaker 1
    0:40:17

    But I did kinda I did have an observation. Had somebody pointed out to me that I thought was worth discussing on the kicking around on this podcast. You remember how you had the, the skeleton index for how the economy is looking. Last Halloween people had these massive skeletons. I gotta tell you, having experienced Marty Graw We are living in a time of decadence and abundance in this country, and I have to just reject the notion that that that people are turning to Trump because they’re living in hard times because we’re here in Louisiana.
  • Speaker 1
    0:40:46

    Okay. Obviously, some of the people in Martegar are are visitors from from Blue blue country, but there there are plenty of Donald Trump voters that are that are at the various market of festivities. Some of them are a little bit gayer and and more blue tinged than others. But, let me tell you. I I’ve I’ve come and kinda party with my friends.
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:07

    I’d never done, like, the going to all the parades. These parades, like, the amount of stuff that they throw out It is like it’s like eight Christmases and once. Downstairs in my house right now, we have an entire room full of just crap that Toulouse has accumulated. Swords and dolls and balls and footballs and beads and beads and beads and beads and whistles and giant toothbrushes and this thing that’s behind me in this plunger that I got right here now. And I it’s just stuff, and they just throw it to you.
  • Speaker 1
    0:41:39

    And and and and these parades going for days. I don’t even do the one Mardi gras parade. The these parades go on for days, eight nine days. Like, if you took somebody in a time machine, from the Great Depression and landed them at the Tux Parade, which is one of the pre Mardi gras parades, not, you know, the prime time. And and you sat them down there, I they would think that you had taken them to a to a future, utopia beyond their wildest imaginations.
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:08

    Like, the amount of free stuff that just gets thrown out there. And so people are the costumes, people are in these costumes that cost hundreds upon hundreds of dollars more it goes. It goes. It keeps going to ride on these floats. You’ve gotta pay five thousand dollars to ride on these floats.
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:23

    If there was one float, there were ten million. I mean, I like, there are parades for twelve days, and everybody that gets to ride is paying thousands of dollars. And then it ends last night. And this is when I decided I had to discuss it on the podcast. At the Rex, the final final parade is the Rex parade.
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:40

    And then it ends at a ball, a Rex ball, which they air on local television here. And this ball, the women at this ball are wearing fifty, sixty, eighty thousand dollar dresses. People that are w the people that are walking in, it’s like and next is the great great grandson of of Zebediah Jones Smith, who was the king of Rex in eight eighteen eighty two. And he’s right now a junior at Old Miss studying digital marketing, and that, you know, James walks through. And it’s, like, we I the amount of just sheer abundance at this at this ball and I gotta tell you, just judging, just being a judge and somebody who knows politics and watched Sarah’s focus groups.
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:22

    If Donald Trump didn’t have a majority at that ball, I would eat my hat. I’ll tell you the I maybe it wasn’t a ninety percent, but I bet he had a majority of this ball. It was very uptown. It was very white. It was very old Louisiana.
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:34

    And, I’m just wondering if you like Donald Trump and and wanna make some arguments for nationalism or anti or you you think that we should be an anti immigrant country now. Okay. But I it’s after Mardi Graw, I have a new Mardi Graw index, which is I will not accept that this country is in such economic peril. That we need Donald Trump.
  • Speaker 2
    0:43:55

    People have to eat like vegetarians now, Tim, because they can’t afford meat and people who can’t even can’t even drive twenty miles to their meemaw because of the price of gas under Joe Biden’s America. It’s like the Great Depression. It is like as as people have told Sarah Longwell and week out, the worst it has ever been in America.
  • Speaker 1
    0:44:16

    The superdome was filled for Indemyon. Conventionals. You can’t get a hotel room. It’s like, where are these people coming from? It’s not all the it’s not all the one percent.
  • Speaker 2
    0:44:26

    I got some good news for you, Tim. Guess who’s on the focus group this week. Boom. I’m coming loaded. Maybe I could moderate a focus group one of these days, Sarah, because what I was thinking, I was when I was listening to the person, in in the focus group with Joe, talk about how what she really wanted was some movement on health care.
  • Speaker 2
    0:44:48

    What I would if I were the moderator, I would say, oh, oh, you mean the way Donald Trump did when he was president and he kept insulin prices because that’s a good thing. Right? And and I’m sure miss Cleen, it’s what I’ve said. Oh, yeah. Sure thing.
  • Speaker 2
    0:45:01

    Yeah. That’s a good. That’s why that’s why we love for him. And then I could’ve said, oh, I’m sorry. That’s what Joe Biden did.
  • Speaker 3
    0:45:10

    You’ll never moderate a focus group
  • Speaker 1
    0:45:11

    number one. Number two, number
  • Speaker 3
    0:45:14

    two, I get comment all the time. I was looking through the YouTube comments. And people are always like, why doesn’t Sarah push back on them? Why didn’t she
  • Speaker 2
    0:45:21

    go No. I’m not saying you should. I’m not saying you should. Course you should.
  • Speaker 3
    0:45:24

    I’m I’m respond, I’m gonna respond to all these people who seem to think it is my responsibility to push back on things that people are incorrect about. And the answer is I am not trying to convince the nine people in my focus group of anything. I try to learn from the nine people in my focus group. So I can go convince you know, nine percent of GOP swing voters, not to vote for Trump. And so you gotta understand what people are, but fighting with each group is not productive.
  • Speaker 3
    0:45:52

    That’s that’s not the role.
  • Speaker 2
    0:45:53

    I agree. I am not suggesting that you should do that. I’m not even suggesting you should let me do it. Except as an inducement to our champagne tier subscribers. For those people, we can conduct a special focus group where I’m the moderator, and it’ll be amazing.
  • Speaker 1
    0:46:09

    And may maybe instead of that, we come up with a different program. You know, we’re the same people who go on the focus group people or recruiting people and they say, Hey, we’re not recruiting you for a focus group, actually. We’re trying to find lean trump voters, and and we’re and we have a little project that we’re trying to we’re gonna tape you and we’re gonna have someone try to convince you to change your mind. And then we can rotate through our moderators
  • Speaker 2
    0:46:29

    and see who does the best job.
  • Speaker 1
    0:46:31

    Demand at the
  • Speaker 2
    0:46:32

    end of the show. Competition. These people then tell us did we change their mind or not? Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:46:37

    It could
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:37

    be a good idea.
  • Speaker 1
    0:46:38

    So
  • Speaker 3
    0:46:38

    I like this. I like this. Actually, they’ll tell us, well, since this is the problem is that they’ll say, maybe, yes, you did or no, you didn’t, depending on whether they’re a stubborn person or an accommodating person, what’s what you wanna know is then who did they ultimately vote for? And did you cause a backlash effect by getting in their face and making them feel crappy about themselves or and stupid? Or, did you do what is very see that because the thing is is that when you do persuasion work, persuasion work is not actually about getting somebody to change their mind.
  • Speaker 3
    0:47:10

    It is about getting them, giving them permission to do a thing they already kind of want to do. They already know Donna Trump’s a jerk. They don’t like him, but their tribal impulses make them want to vote for him. Right? They’re on the team.
  • Speaker 3
    0:47:21

    It’s hard to break from the team. So what are you doing? You’re trying to build them a new team, say, no. No. No.
  • Speaker 3
    0:47:25

    Lots of people like you do this other thing. It’s permission. It’s not it’s not really like change your mind.
  • Speaker 2
    0:47:31

    So you’re not supposed to to do what I would would do.
  • Speaker 1
    0:47:35

    Okay. See, this
  • Speaker 2
    0:47:35

    is why I think maybe I would not be maybe it could be a good cop, bad cop thing where I’m the first person to come in to persuade them. I’m the bad cop, and then Tim or you come in after me and say, Boy, that jerk
  • Speaker 3
    0:47:47

    Start hitting people with phone books?
  • Speaker 2
    0:47:49

    No. No. Then you say that jerk right here, that’s why I always voted Republican for me because because I did. But, you know, I’ve come to realize that, I can’t let jerks like that force me through negative polarity to, right? See?
  • Speaker 1
    0:48:05

    Say? So now we’ll workshop it.
  • Speaker 2
    0:48:07

    Good cop, bad cop. We’ll figure this out. Alright. Guys, good show. Long show.
  • Speaker 2
    0:48:11

    Sarah, welcome back. Hey, guys, if you are in the DC area next week, Friday, February twenty third, or that Saturday, or that Sunday, the twenty fifth, Come by the principal’s first conference. Sebastian will put the the link in the the show notes. I think there’s might still be a ticket or two left. There also might not In which case, I’ll feel really bad about
  • Speaker 1
    0:48:34

    telling you to come by.
  • Speaker 2
    0:48:35

    They turn out.
  • Speaker 3
    0:48:35

    They turn out pretty events. Yeah. Must be for our panel, JVI.
  • Speaker 2
    0:48:38

    I will be there for sixty minutes. It’s gonna be fantastic. Quick in and out for me, but everybody else will be there for all the other time. And it, it’s just it’s good people. It’s good people.
  • Speaker 2
    0:48:49

    It’s, it’s fellowship. People really have the fellowship. Fellow, you
  • Speaker 1
    0:48:53

    know, ask Wednesday.
  • Speaker 3
    0:48:53

    It’s gonna be a Bulwark sponsored happy hour.
  • Speaker 2
    0:48:56

    Yes. I can’t wait to not be at that. And,
  • Speaker 3
    0:49:00

    I’ll be there.
  • Speaker 2
    0:49:01

    And Sarah will be there. That’s all you need. Alright. Guys, we’ll see you next week. Bye.
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