Democracy Won The Midterms

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Hello, everyone. Welcome to the next level. I’m JBL here with my best friend Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. Happy after election day, Tim.

Why are you waving

your hands at me? Are you is this a stop? Are you calling time out? What’s No. I’m saying, hey, restart.

I’m saying, hey, no, my friends. Oh,

just

I’m running on fumes. You know, I’ve just been spending all this time together with the oath keepers and Steve Bannon and the freaks in Arizona, and I’m just happy to be here with all of you. I’m I’m drinking from their tears. And, you know, so I’m just waving in jubilation. And I’m gonna mispronounce a lot of words.

I’m gonna mispronounce a lot of words on it.

That’s okay. We’re recording on Wednesday, November ninth in the morning. We all three of us coming off of couple hours of sleep staying up late watching election returns. Sarah, do you want to give us a quick rundown of the state of play?

Yeah. So basically, really good solid night over performance for democracy.

Democracy over performed.

You You’re still there. Aren’t.

You, as I said.

Sure. I I guys, look, I just wanna say at the jump. I think we we will get into some of the particulars of our analysis, but I would say in aggregate, if you’ve been listening to us, you got a pretty good sense of, like, I think, unlike a lot of the sort of cable news chat, I think we were on a bunch of this stuff. Thought evers would pull would would could pull it out, and he did in Wisconsin. That’s a very important swing state.

It will be contested. You know, going forward, it looks like Ron Johnson’s probably gonna pull it out, but, like, more narrowly than we thought. And then Whitmer just crushed in Michigan when and took and and in doing so also brought along Jocelyn Benson, the Secretary of State, thereby just totally destroyed both Tudor Dixon and is a insane person, Christina Caramo. Tutor Dixon herself is insane. But by the comparing her to Christina Caramo, she’s actually totally normal, Christina Karamo is, like, a QA non crazy person.

So we got I’m

just a whole trifecta of both the state I just mentioned the Senate. Yeah.

Control. Michigan called Blue State.

And in Wisconsin, still have a a veto power, which means so you still you know, the the Republicans don’t take that completely over. And then in Pennsylvania, as we very much expected, Mastiano goes down in Flames, in flames, and JBL’s Boy Faterman pulls it out for the only flip we have right now. Right? So then there’s like a bunch of outstanding stuff, but Faterman pulls it out ours who we can get into this, but, like, really, people thought the momentum was with him. But, you know, he wasn’t able he wasn’t able to people sit those negatives that were really high, they were high.

And then so right now, we’re really waiting on Arizona and Nevada. But Arizona, and Tim’s gonna tell us all about Arizona. In fact, I won’t even go into Arizona. I’ll just say that because we can talk those through, but I would say Arizona is looking better than expected in many ways. And Nevada, people are bullish on Nevada.

The dams on the ground are bullish on Nevada even though I’m looking at it, kind of can’t make quite heads or tails of it because it has a lot to do with, like, what’s in the mail balance have to come in over, like, the next five days. But I would say that’s that’s kind of the map. The big the big disappointment heartbreaker for me is that that my boy, Tim Ryan, didn’t even come close. But, you know, Ohio’s out of reach. I think that’s what we can take from this even if you run a really great race, great campaign.

But the rest of the map and and I mean just watching right now. So, like, I am on a couple hours sleep, but I am feeling kitty. At the prospect of Kevin McCarthy, who I stayed up. I’ve been up I stayed up so far, but and two, he came out and gave like, an alternate universe speech in which she acted like, everything was good. We are just dominating.

I’m like, bro, you guys might only you might pick up eight seats. Like, you might have a, like, seven seat majority.

Or less. Right.

Or less. And, like, you and Marjorie Taylor Green are gonna be best friends, and I wish you all the horrible things that come with that. Howard Bauchner:

And and, Sarah, you left out maybe the fifth or sixth most important thing, which is that as we are going to tape, Lauren Beaufort’s in an awful lot of trouble. I’m

always gonna get into

Lauren Beaufort in my review.

Might get might get pushed out into Madison called Thorin World. So, Tim, go ahead. Oh,

Tom. I wanna take you to Lauren Boat. I wanna do I’m gonna go big picture, just the biggest picture, and then I’m gonna address the many board commentators who have sent me recriminations over my over my predictions, which actually weren’t as bad as some of them made it seem. But, you know, okay. Well, I wanna get into that over

the denominators.

Who who did this?

Well, he’s a lead mentor. He’s a lead mentor. I thought you were, like, Ted Johnson and Will Salomon or sending you

mean emails. No. No. No. The commenters have had some sternly worded emails from me, but I which I appreciate the feedback.

Okay. Here’s the biggest picture. Which I I just don’t wanna lose, is that we are now in the fourth cycle

where

there is a trend. Of center left pro democracy, normie, Democratic voters. Kind of controlling the majority of the country. Okay? Now there have been some disappointments around all that, but if you go back to the twenty twenty primary, I wrote and I I just kind of re upped this for an article that that’ll be out by the time this podcast is up.

This is about how I should have listened to March twenty twenty of myself. But in March twenty twenty, I wrote about Joe Biden’s silent majority, which is, you know, basically suburban moms and dads, older voters of color, people who are not very online, people who don’t wanna be part of a cult, people who are sick of the crazy shit. Okay? In twenty twenty, they put Joe Biden over Bernie and and Warren in twenty twenty. They obviously gave eighty Joe Biden eighty one million votes and and helped to carry Georgia and Arizona.

Those voters turned out in the twenty twenty two, Democrat primaries has been a JBL thing. Like, against what Fox and all these guys say about the crazy lefties. Now, actually, the the normie one, and I’ll almost all the Democratic primaries in twenty twenty two. And now here we are in the general election where the same thing is happening. And and and I think that we just cannot, like, look away from that trend amidst all of our all the craziness, all the scary stuff, all the doomcasting.

Like like the middle is holding. In that regard. And they are mostly, you know, vote voting for the democrat, with few exceptions. They voted for Brian Kemp today in Georgia. Know, they voted for Mike DeWine in Ohio.

Right? Like, mostly, though, they’re voting for the Democrat. And so I I think that’s an important takeaway. Are what what now on that actual races, what I miss. So last week’s podcast and and on my Snapchat show, so it’s all out there.

I I thought that their folks would take about twenty seats and fifty two seven seats. Okay? And and as we sit here today, like, we just have to appreciate a little bit of luck. Like, it wasn’t that far off from that. Right.

And and I got a great I wish I should’ve grabbed this guy’s name. I’m gonna send you a note afterwards because I forget who it was that my inbox is a dumpster fire. But somebody pointed out on last week’s show, I talked about how there are four coin flips basically in the senate. And now, I’ve gone to the fifty two because I was like, I don’t think that all four will go Republican. I did not consider it all for my co networking.

And and so I split the baby. And this person said, you know, actually, that’s not math. Your your your words, man. And these aren’t coin flips. Right?

Like, they they’re related. Right? Like, these things happen together. And in twenty sixteen, Donald Trump won basically four coin flips, you know, in these very small narrow states that he won. And that might just very well happen here where these all move together, it’s narrow Democratic majorities.

This is true also in some house races where Democrats are gonna win narrowly. And, you know, the luck kind of landed on the democracy side this time. Thank goodness. In addition to other stuff that’s happening, we’re tall. We’ll talk about abortion.

We’ll talk about all the other stuff. But, like, you know, this Georgia race is very close. I I I think that the senate race in Arizona is gonna get close. We can go deeper into my Arizona experience. Nevada is is literal coin flip right now, not literal, but a true coin flip.

And so I think that is basically what happens. We have to appreciate you know, that that luck was on our side of that front. In addition to kind of this this sort of moment, you know, the the the silent voter that I’m talking about, gobert, and the last thing is, we’ve been on this. Bill Crystal has been on this. Bill Crystal, by the way, if you just listen to Bill Crystal, or even to Sarah was was dog and cable news earlier.

If you just listened to the median MSNBC pundit slash Bill Crystal, you would have been better prepared for what happened last night. Than if you were analyzing the real clear politics average. Much better prepared. Okay? So Bill is on this, but he introduced me to Adam Frisch who who is running against vopra.

And then Adam is a prime example of the silent majority thing that I’m talking about. The Colorado three had always elected moderate people before Albert. A Republican district, but it always been kind of moderate Republicans or or and there’s a moderate democratic there for a minute. And Beaufort is a lunatic. K?

And I think that all of you know, you kind of worry that, like, okay. Maybe these people just want lunacy. And and fresh ran this campaign. It’s just like, I’m just a business guy. Okay?

Don’t worry about me. Alright? I’ve got Republicans that like me. It was very a long, well friendly campaign. Like, I’m not scary.

I’m not gonna be, you know, putting letterboxes in the classroom and, like, doing Nancy Pelosi’s bidding. Don’t worry about it. He worked his ass off. One across the district and enough people are just like, you

know

what? Yeah. This seems fine. I don’t need this fucking lunacy in my life anymore. And that was I think just a big trend really everywhere except for to save us there.

You

think first is gonna win?

And so, again, this will end out air, later, we’ll have more info. But based on my conversations with him, with other people in Colorado, he seems likely to win a narrow victory. Like last night, when we were talking, they were thinking maybe recount territory hundreds and then some more stuff is coming overnight. And now that he could win by a couple thousand votes And

where I mean, the Republicans still do have a path to fifty one senate. Right? I mean, if they flip Nevada and Arizona oh, yeah. Right? And and even to fifty two, if if Walker beats WarNock.

Right? In a runoff? Yeah.

I mean, conceivably, the Democrats could get to the exact prediction that we had. You know? Right. The Republicans could yeah. This

is what I wanna, you know, everything seems great right now, but the

luck could flip that coin could flip right back

the other

way, you know — Yeah.

— with a

series of things. I do think the Arizona let me just do a quick Arizona thing really quick just so folks who understand where where we stand. And, you know, so I wrote about this and then with all these

lunatics.

We do. Just the shot in the Freud alerts. There were some sad Republicans last night. They’re always talking about the rumors the sad, normie Republicans that she had to be in. I was with the maggos.

Tell me everything. Nigel Farage is there. Bannon is there. Benny Johnson is there. I mean, all Jack Pizzagate Jack is there.

And Did you

bring tears home with you? And can we have a ceremonial drink?

It’s large finch them is roaming through the crowd, you know, like, multiple news max and OEM celebrities. Like, it it it was just the beating heart of the lunatic. It was Bannon’s war room come to life in a in a location. Plus with some rich donors and and, you know, handful of other Republicans at this this election night party. There’s a Kelly Ward, chem trail, Kelly.

And and, you know, there there this was it was packed. It was really hard to get into. People are drinking and up until about ten o’clock. People are very excited. You know, they’re all, you know, putting their eggs in the Florida, the Arizona good.

Benny Johnson is doing his campy, like, schtick at the on the MC. You know, they’re playing their gay eighties music that they play for some reason in all these events. And and people were into it. And and by about by about nine thirty or ten o’clock, I mean, Hobbs goes up eighteenth in the early film. So I’m gonna talk about that, like, what this means.

And and and the people in there, they might be talking a big game, but, like, they they thought it was good. Itself. Many of them were were, you know, a a handful of them that do that wanted to talk to me. Some of the craziest ones, like, talking to me, I think, is it, like, trolling me or whatever. And so, you know, they they were thinking it was going south because because lake was doing worse than Biden was on the early and on the mail.

And so late comes out at ten and gives just a loonet exactly what you would think she would do. You know? Don’t let them steal this from us. Blah blah blah. And she’s down eight eat.

She’s speaking at ten o’clock down eight o’clock and even the people in the room that I’m standing next to are kind of

like, This is

weird. Like, we’re losing by a lot. And you’re right. And there are a handful of people next to me who are like, fraud, kill on, but then, like, there are another handful of people next to me that are like, Why is she talking now? You were losing me.

This is not the normal state of affairs and a lot of people who’d been to other election parties, not the new mega types. So, like, this is not how things normally work. So after she spoke, got really sad and empty in there. But what happened later in the night is we kind of end up in Arizona with an inverse of the red mira. And there’s there’s a blue mirage happening there.

And the and despite the fact that Hobbs was outperforming Biden’s early vote and nail vote number, the election the inverse had Like, with the election day vote, Blake is outperforming Trump. And so, you know, as we we’re sitting here, you know, it’s nine here. It it’ll be Wednesday night when we get another big batch from Maricopa. Some of the stuff that’s out is like the late male, which is like, I I did a male, but I ended up dropping it off. Right?

Like, that’s the latest stuff to happen. And that ended up being kind of surprisingly good for Biden, if you remember, in twenty twenty. So that is what the Hobbs folks are banking on is that, like, the late mail won’t look like, you know, the other election day. Stuff. So, you know, when I talk to the house people, they think they will win narrowly.

The late people think that they’re gonna win by, you know, five or whatever, but they’re they’re, you know, delusional. And And so I think that that is five. Yeah. I mean, that’s what they’ve literally told me this morning. We think we will arrive five.

I don’t and I I don’t as we just there’s enough votes out that we don’t really know. And she narrowed the gap from eighteen to three in, like, two dumps, you know. So I don’t wanna completely mock that possibility. And so that is really what it comes after. If if Lake does end up winning by five and then those bullish Lake assessments are true, that probably brings Masters across.

I don’t think Finjan even Finjan’s running seven points behind her, but that it might bring masters across him or we’re in recount territory with masters. So

you think Masters has a has a real chance? Because that’s the I I think no. No. No. I think of the

outside I think a very outside science. And it looks bad. The the smart The most smart person that I’ve talked to has been the most right this whole time, feels like Lake is gonna win and Masters is gonna come up short. But like that said, everyone’s kinda just putting their finger in the wind because you just don’t you know, because we don’t really know. It’s not like the old days where you’re like, how many precincts are left?

And we can go look at the precincts and say, is that a good precinct for me or a bad precinct? Like, we don’t know what the precincts are bear count. Coppa’s one big county, and we don’t know how many ballots are in these boxes, the people dropped off. Right? And so it’s, like, there’s a

Or how many meetings are out

there now? Or how many mules? Yeah. Exactly. Because there’s a little bit of a the tabulars, what’s tabulars, so there’s a little bit of a known unknown there in Arizona.

Boy, it’s

all very exciting. I still think it could go south. Glad, Sarah. Well, I

just I just think we should spend just two seconds on Fitcham. And the fact that Finjan is somehow managing to run behind both Blake and Kelly, which if if your frame as mine has been this whole time is like governors and secretaries of to the number one thing that matters here for democracy and sort of certification going forward. Like, a lot of bright spots on this. Because, like, if if look, I I think it would be terrible if if, like, wins. But if she has a Democratic Secretary of State who’s actually, like, presiding over elections, like, it just changes the dynamic to, like, two outright election deniers working together, and it’s just a good check a good check on the system.

And so I I I’m really thrilled about it. And

I think, actually, Sarah, not only that buters of credit for your work on this, and it’s it’s a sweep. Lake would be the only ex exception to the sweep. It is Michael’s, Dixon, Mastriano, and then a bunch of other ones that were never gonna win, but those three And then Kemp, you have to mention Kemp in there, right, on the governor’s things. Right? So

And

cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency. Who ran ahead of Kemp? Yeah.

Right. And so that is and then I was the governors, and then I was going to the secretary of states with the Ravensburger, Carramo, you know, Crockett, New Mexico. People were worried about Pennsylvania picked by the governor. Merchant’s still out in Nevada. Right?

So — Yeah. — so conceivably, you know, we there there are are one or two downsides, but but a mere sweep on, like, the core election denial of candidates. And I do think this overlaps. I don’t wanna ignore abortion. I think there’s there was an overlapping election denial, abortion extremism, trend, also that happened.

And we did talk about this a lot, and these governors races. Right? Where

it’s like, you

know, I don’t love the gas prices are going up, but but, like, you’re putting up someone that’s gonna ban abortion at one week and and and and maybe make Donald Trump an autocrat. And, like, that’s just that’s just too far for people. Right? That’s just too far for enough people. And and I think that had Republicans, you know, moderated on abortion a bit decoing those governor’s races, you know, and to keep more of a status quo, I I think potentially, you know, I I think that obviously contributed to to this.

Those two things we’re working together in the demo’s

favor. So I

got a question for both of you on on specifically this. Can Republicans moderate on abortion without losing as many voters as they pick up? Because there’s a whole big chunk of the Republican base, which I mean, the the reason Republican politicians are taking these positions is because the base demands out of them. And I

don’t know.

Do you do you I mean, those those base voters aren’t gonna flipped to d,

but maybe they just don’t show up. Right? I mean, this is you could just run on twenty week bands or something. I mean, something in the ballpark that, you know, like, that it is at least palatable to to people. You know, you’re still gonna they’ll they’ll still have them motivation on that.

I I just think that there’s this this middle voter that we’re talking about, the swing voter. I got one week bands, no exceptions, five week bands, bounties, and that shit is insane for some of them.

So I I don’t I think that they could you could modulate some It is. But on the other hand, there’s a there’s, like, you know, ten percent thirty percent of the Republican base that wants that. Maybe, but,

like, just look at DeSantis. DeSantis held the line at a fifteen week ban and, like, he did great. No one’s mad at him about it. Maybe. Maybe.

I mean, I don’t know. He is sort of a special case because he’s the, you know, the establishment team normal. Great white hope here. I don’t know.

I don’t know.

One thing before we throw to our sponsor,

I have

seen all of the this was terrible for Trump’s stuff. And I can see that

certainly.

On the other hand,

Just as a

purely analytical matter, Trump does give you something when he’s on the ballot. So when Trump is on the ballot, you lose a bunch of suburban educated voters. And you gain a bunch of low propensity, low income, low education voters who otherwise don’t come out. And that can work out okay for for Republicans and especially for Republicans not named Trump. Right?

That’s why they did very well. They outperformed him in twenty sixteen, and they outperformed him in twenty twenty. And it’s because they got the benefit of being normie Republicans, but they also got all of his voters who he pulled

in. When Trump’s not on

the ballot, you get sort of the counterbalanced version of that. And that’s when you get twenty eighteen or twenty twenty two, where you’re still rep Republicans are still repelling those suburban night voters but they’re not bringing out as many of the deplorables as they need to. I think

that’s right. Although, I gotta say, I just think one of the successful things that Democrats did or that was done, and and in part because Trump did it himself, is that, you know, I said, like, Trump is gonna be on the ballot for the people he attracts, but he might not be on the ballot for the people he repels. And so you gotta put him on the ballot. And I think that the Mar a Lago stuff, I think him, you know, going out and doing rallies in some of these places. Like, I think Trump let himself and and the candidates themselves being very trumpy.

You know, like, doctor Oz had this schizophrenic strategy of, like, doing, you know, big rallies with Trump, but also hanging out with, like, Susan Collins and Brian FitzPatrick. And so people were kinda like, well, what what you know, and and so I think that Trump, yeah, had his he look, he and the candidates that he pulled across the line. This is this is where I just I just wanna say one thing about how the focus groups really bore out the swing voters. I kept saying, I don’t know. These swing voters, like, they’re really pissed off at Biden.

They talk about the economy. They talk about crime. They talk about inflation. But when you get to vote choice.

Vote choice.

They’re going for the democrats, and it’s because they say the Republican candidate is too extreme, often because of their position on abortion, and sort of broadly just like crazy person. That’s what happened. Yeah. I don’t know.

This is all Can you hold it can you

hold it, Tim? Yeah.

Well, and p because it’ll make people wanna say to the ads because I’m gonna offer maybe some unfounded jubilee. Okay. Like, we’re I’m just gonna be a little irrationally irrationally optimistic about things on the other side. Alright.

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code. Next level. Timothy. Go. Next level.

That’s the next level. Next level is the

code. So

here’s the thing. We said all of us

people

that hate Donald Trump and also care about her democracy said after January sixth. That that the Republican, that what you just laid out would have been true. There was gonna be short term political pain for for throwing Trump overboard because you’re gonna lose some of the enthusiasm, some of the thing. I’ve been talking about the weird housekeepers that I saw that that in Queen Creek the other night, and and you just lose some of what Trump brought. But there’d be medium to long term gain because you don’t have to deal with his fucking bullshit anymore.

Right? And and we and that was the case I made to the remaining Normandy Republicans that I would call I called and that my friends are still working the senate. I was like, why is it Tom Cotton doing this? Like, you can end this problem. Like, there’ll be a couple of you will go down.

Like, there’ll be a couple of you would go down, but long term, it’ll be better for the party. They didn’t do it.

And, yeah, I

just don’t think you can’t I I the the they missed the chances passed. Okay? Is notion of, like, people are just gonna move on to draw on to see it. And then Donald Trump what is what do they mean? Is Donald Trump gonna disappear into a black hole as stop well,

see, the median Republican voters gonna go race by race and look through and weigh candidate quality and what was getable. And they’re gonna say, I believe that Donald j Trump cost us one point eight points in the Arizona race. Therefore, I must be for Ron to say, no. Now look, the guy lost the twenty twenty election by seven million votes and the voters didn’t turn away from him because they thought he was a loser then. They’re not gonna turn away because a bunch of people at national review have their panties in a wad.

The Republicans did worse than they should have. There are some, and Sarah, you can talk about this there’s some in the folk groups, right, who are pragmatic,

right, and in the polls who say that they’ll go again they want somebody who can win. So there are some of those. It’s not like there’s none of those

people. But the other people, the full maggifts are still exist, they’re still gonna be there. Donald Trump’s still gonna be talking to them. He’s not he’s not going to paint

in Midland and disappear. He’s not going to move to Brazil and hang out with, you know, Jair Bolsonaro on Elba, okay, for former autocrat Elba. He’s still gonna be at

fuck in fuck in Florida. He’s still gonna be on people’s TV. He’s still gonna love attention. He’s still gonna create he’s still gonna talk about the secrets that he

knows about Rhonda Santos. It’s possible that around to say this could be the but Donald Trump is not going quietly into that night. Okay? And and the voters that I’m seeing here in Arizona, there’s a big bunch of them that are gonna be with him till the end. And they’re gonna believe, especially if Blake ends up going down, and if those numbers are wrong, and she goes down short.

They’re gonna believe that it was stolen again. And he’s gonna have Kerry Lake out there saying it. And the notion that they’re like they can just turn the page on that now is is just falling. It’s fantasy. And and I think that, like, the thing that cost Republicans this time

like

seems to be is gonna continue to cost them for a while still. Like, I I think that there’s a couple more election cycles of pain ahead. Over this because I I don’t see any path out of it.

Sarah talked

to me about all of the desantis twenty twenty four blood in the water. Best day of his life. He is he is now the odds on favorite to be the Republican nominal. Tell me what your views are on this. Okay.

Let me just do a code of what Tim said here because it’s so important. Here’s what Republicans have to deal with going forward. Everybody right now is doing this weird thing. Like, I I’m glad that all the the the Twitterati anti Antas are like it. This is Trump’s fault and we’re ready to move on, which by the way, for the last two weeks, all of them have been so out in front of themselves on red tsunamis and we’re gonna destroy and, like, whatever, happy with happy with all these candidates that, you know, you got perfectly fine.

And now they’re all like, this is Trump’s fault. People wanna move on because look at his election. Okay. Let me just tell you, there are primaries and there are generals.

They are

different kinds of races. Donald Trump pulled all those crappy candidates across the finish line in the Republican primaries because Republican primary vote want those kinds of candidates. And so the box that Republicans are now in, and this is just from a broad analysis, I’d say this is like the main thing that I’d come away with from the swing voters is like, they put these crazy candidates up. They’re poised in the swing voters. Bing, bang, boom.

Like, that is what happened in twenty twenty with Trump. So it’s happening right now. And so they’ve got a problem. They’re boxed in on this and the idea. And so this is where we get to DeSantis.

So I wrote a long thread. Yesterday about which I thought maybe you might be mad at me JBL because I didn’t write it for the bulwark. I just like, you know, just ranked it out on Twitter. I’m sorry. But I got all annoyed that all these people who were acting like, you know, Rhonda it’s obviously gonna be Rhonda Santos.

In the is, and there were a bunch of people sort of tweeting this about, oh, you know, anecdotal evidence. Like, tomorrow, Google is, like, standing in line asking people on a bunch a bunch of Republicans are saying, I don’t want Trump to run. I want to Santos. Okay. As

you have heard

in suburban Atlanta.

No shit. Right.

Yeah. No. That’s right. As you guys have heard me say many many times. Number one, Number one name that comes up in the focus groups is Rhonda Santos.

And after Trump, if you say if Trump doesn’t run, who do you want? They say Rhonda Santos. And there are many people many people

who will say, I don’t

want Trump to run, like, we’re ready to move on to these other new stars. They want to Santos.

That is the chunk

of the party. It is available to them. Potentially, to a candidate who can harness it. My question is, these guys all think that Rhonda Santos is the god’s gift to politics. And what I want to know is, I have seen no evidence that Rhonda Santos is the kind of politician who can stand toe to toe with Donald Trump in an arena.

While he has rally after rally where he clowns DeSantis, where he has his crazy oathkeeper supporters menacing DeSantis, where, you know, all of these election deniers that Trump did help hold that that Trump endorsed who were all in safe places, so they are now they all now have one, not in the swing states, but out in safe seats who all love Trump and all ran in Trump’s image. Like, I don’t think these guys have an accurate sense of the base. This was always the case. Trump owns the base and the base is sufficiently large to win Republican primaries. Also, the base is

Trumpier because the Trump drove out a bunch of those marginal r voters. That’s right. Who who right who are now? Either not Republican voters or swing voters. And so the base is Trumpier precisely because Trump has failed.

Right? I mean, this is it’s it’s a vicious cycle, not a virtue Yeah.

And can I throw one other thing out there? Let’s say that their their wet dream comes true and that Rhonda Sandoz is up for it, and that he does squeak out. A victory with Donald Trump or even not even squeak out. Maybe wins let’s get let’s just do their porn. Let’s say we’re on the Santa sixty nine Donald Trump, thirty one.

Cool. Cool. Like, let’s say that happens. What do you think is happening with that thirty

one? You

know, you think that thirty one is all totally all sold out. All of them. Some of them will. Do you think what do you think to have to do to Donald Trump? Do you think he’s gonna go be the warm up act?

The DeSantis Convention. Oh, yeah. That’s right. Yeah. He’ll just be

a good shoulder. He’ll he’ll know that he’s been beat.

Yeah. Go go talk about his power run and talk about how he and how he’s go out there and get people to to go vote. And and do we think Ron in that primary is gonna be able to appeal to the Brian Kemp Mike DeWine, Chris the new new voter. While he’s running a primary gun Donald Trump, or is he gonna have to try to beat Donald Trump by going crazier on how we should execute Fauci harder and build a bigger fucking wall. Like, what do you think Ronda’s gonna look like?

If you looked at last night and thought, Oh, man.

I I think what

America is looking for is is to is to Floridaify America. Think what America wants is don’t say gay and and and trolling Disney over a lesbian kiss and, like, you know, yelling at reporters and whatever, all the things people like about Rhonda Santos, I I think you’re on drugs. The types of Republicans that did well in the in the rest of America, north of the north of the Santa Stan, were the, like, much more mild bannered ones. You know, the ones who are much more technocratic. Like, those are the ones that that really performed well when you’re looking at at the swing stakes.

Which Florida is not anymore. So I just you know, maybe we’re maybe we’re sniffing our own glue this morning, and we’re on a high post mid term high, and I I think that that that that that fantasy is, like, something that looks real good at two tweet lengths. You know, if you’re if you’re an anti anti and, like, when you start to game it out, I start to get pretty damn ugly. And this

is you guys are more on Twitter than I am. Roughly, if you had to estimate the number, how many anti anti Republican and conservative types did you see last night saying Brian Kemp should challenge Trump. Because

Kemp Mike

DeWine. So Mike it’s it’s Mike DeWine’s moment. I’m sorry. Rhonda’s Sanddice ran against a tomato can of an of an opponent in a state which has been trending ever more Republican for, like, four cycles. And Brian Kemp

went

in a a purple state against a very high quality opponent and beater pretty soundly. And yet, the the all of the anti Antis, there’s crickets on the, you know, this dis and that shows you that DeSantis isn’t a an argument DeSantis is a Talisman. The idea of DeSantis twenty twenty four is something that people who don’t wanna come to terms with with the reality of Trumpism, just hold on to fetishize over. Right? They just just rub it rub it rub it.

And

I I I hate

that, and I find it so despicable. Yeah. And well, here’s

the other thing about it. Meaning Thomas, and also it’s a it’s a strategic it’s like a three it’s their own little five d chest because they think that they can get the bag of voters with the scientists without having to do the whole deal. You know? Right. Without having to do the dance, the strip teas.

Right? They don’t think they can get them with Kipp. So it’s a strategic move. Right? Like, that’s what they think they’re doing.

Because when it’s legitimate, you would think that, you know, you don’t see on the New York Post cover, for example, today. Like, the future, DeSantis v Whittner. Right? Like, if this was actual analysis, which is right, which is like both parties need to move on. We need to look at who had the strongest night in twenty in twenty twenty two, you know, for the next generation.

Like, that’s what they’d be saying. And to the same, you know, how what percentage of people on Twitter said Brian Kemp and who are talking about Gretchen Whitmer twenty twenty four at the same percentage zero. Right? Because it’s not fucking actual. Analysis.

It’s wish casting and and a little strategic ploy. Can

I ask

you guys quickly just I don’t want to spend little bit of this. About Westmore in Maryland who ran a pretty impressive campaign, got a pretty impressive win flipping another governor’s seat. And it seems like an awfully impressive guy. Am I wrong to think that this guy could have a future nationally? Yeah.

I oh, I think that the damn bench issues are a little bit

and look, let Sarah talk about her favorite Abigail’s fan burger who I was with, you know, yes, two days ago. I know that my content is all in Arizona focused, but I was in Washington for Patty Murray Tiffany Smiley, Arizona, Virginia for hamburger, Pennsylvania for Oz, Donald’s people were pretty bullish. On Monday night. Let me tell you pretty bullish in the the Israeli. Tough kitties.

So but I you know, there there are some other, I think, hamburgers and Virginia governor maybe. Right? When that opens back up, there are others. But on on West, you know, he’s really good. He’s really talented.

Me and Jim did that profile with him, Jim Swift. And I, you know, I was on the phone with we on the phone with him for a long time just saying, like, you he has the skills yeah, he has a great life story. Third elected black governor in America his in American history. I didn’t realize there was that few. I mean, it’s just it’s another, you know, part of awakening, only three elected black governors.

I mean, a couple that were lieutenant governor and ascended. And he’s really good. He’s a little bit of a weird thing, which I mentioned in Decision Deck is projecting a runoff in Georgia that’s coming across. There’s a little bit of weirdness in his book. He’s got a little bit of, like, a exaggeration, you know, kind of his, you know, some of his little habit, a politician’s habit to deal with Lilly a little bit.

That you know who else had that habit, Joe Biden. He got

he got it under control after a while became the president. So, you know, that’s what I think don’t trump mean. Have done some exaggerating

Donald Trump has a target. Okay. Well, so we’ve had two exaggerators. A a small one and a big one recently as president. So maybe

Bill Clinton might have done that twice. It’s you know,

who who could say? So anyway, that would be my only

flag about less more, but I besides that the dude is is awesome. And I do think that these wins were important for them Kratz. And the Whitmer thing, I think, is real just as far as kind of it might not solve their short term problem, which is a very old president and kind of a VP that’s but but but as a medium term, you know, it it helped. You you have to win these races to have a

bench. And this is

this is something I really feel like we have been talking about that has come to fruition, which is that twenty twenty two had the had the ability to create a new generation of Democratic stars. And we got Whitmer, we got West Moore, we got Josh Shapiro who just dominated and I think has been really impressive. I mean, you get a governor that popular with a with a good background on crime as attorney general who is is popular in a swing state like Pennsylvania. It’s a must win for Democrats. Oh, boy.

And, you know, look, And and I feel like I I get annoyed at Democrats for their identity politics blah blah blah. But, like, you got a Jewish guy from Pennsylvania, you got a woman in in Michigan, you got a black guy in in Maryland, and I’m looking at this crowd. I’m like, that is promising. That is a that is a really its account talented bench, they’re getting somewhere, and it it makes me feel better about an Abigail Spanberger. Did she talk about me, Tim, when you were with her?

Did she mention me? I

mean, the the Republicans can say basically the same thing. We got Kerry Lake in Arizona, an Urschel Walker in in Georgia. Yeah. That’s all good. The Democrats needed

it. Though. You know, there’s a gap in need. I did Abigail didn’t mention, but she’s probably listening. I said, hello.

Big big polar person. Had she had things going poorly, which I which I knew it, which I did not think they were going to, but I joked that, like, she might wanna, you know, be the new chairman of Meredith or something of the Bulwark. But she did she is a reader. I guess I’ll say that. She’s reading our content.

And a great American

accent. So she didn’t say she didn’t say say hi to Sarah. She

didn’t she didn’t particularly say Sarah Longwell. I love her so much. She’s the best person. I don’t understand why you couldn’t just lie to me on this front.

Like, you could’ve just made it up. You don’t know if it’s always true. Sorry. I

I’m having my

brain’s been slow. I would’ve

But I’m but I’m I’m super listen. Last night, this was last night really was

and

you guys remember twenty twenty, and how the expectations were so different, and we were right pretty depressed on election night. But last night, as waiting for those Wexden results to come in because that was the high gonna be their high watermark. If if they got this guy Hong Kong who is in sort of southern Virginia or or or mid Virginia, who was really talented, like a really good Republican. But he was in a he was running against Democrat Jennifer Watson. He was fine.

But that would have been like, waive. Like, like, big waive even, like, looking at Sonata. And so when she won against him because he was, like, not an election denier at all. He’s actually quite an attractive candidate for the Republicans. Then I was just, like, living on Spanish for, like, checking because that was the that was the like the Yeah.

That’s

the more hamburger and into my vase. The the the

tsunami was west and the the the way ish was gonna be if they got hamburger and they didn’t and she’s a bright political future. She is very tall for people who don’t know her, and I’ve been It’s very important. Tall as a

short person that it’s quite important

to be tall for politics. How tall

is a list of such that’s another winner in the Sierra Long well of Oh, listen. Slocking.

Oh, man. I need to talk to you. My my twenty eighteen girls, they really came through. I am I am I’m just I’m so thrilled because that that should be the future. I mean, I look,

I don’t want to to crush you But after your least tphonic experience, maybe slow your role in giving your heart away. That’s

fine. That’s fine. These these

politicians will break your heart. Tim, you had something for Sarah. You wanted to ask her about Georgia. So on last Friday night before I left on my whirlwind tour of

America to go to all these campaign events, I said, Real America. To Real America, I said to my husband. So here’s the thing. LSU plays Alabama tomorrow. We even beat Alabama in, like, twelve years.

We’ve done one time in the last twelve years. It’s very unlikely that this happens. But if LSU beats Alabama, they will likely be going to the SEC championship in Atlanta which has held three days before the Georgia runoff. And so I said, if this if this unique if this unique chain of events happens, where LSU beat Alabama and Georgia goes to a runoff, I am gonna work long well and get dispatched to Georgia

for somebody I don’t

know. For something for the bulwark or for I don’t know. Whatever. I don’t know. Do a focus group or you can you’d come up with the assignment.

I don’t know. But I will be there on the ground in Georgia for the runoff. So you don’t have to you don’t have to promise anything right now, but I just wanna throw that out there that that Very unlikely series events has occurred and it seems silly for me not to be in Georgia right there for the SEC championship and this runoff that that, you know, could decide the senate. Who knows? Sure.

Sure. Can we just let’s we’ll we’ll table that one and talk about it. But let’s talk about Georgia, like, Georgia proper. This So so

Well table again. Wow. That’s ever the listener’s notice. That’s a very fast table. Okay.

So FYI, I guess, I’ll be there on my own time. And there are my own times that you are Atlanta listeners wanna contribute. If Sarah doesn’t wanna do so, I might let’s stay at your guest room or something. JBL gives

the assignments. I just I don’t so it we talk to him

about it. He does publish. Yeah. That’s

right. I just find the money for your junkets. Here’s the thing about the here’s the thing about the Georgia run off that I wanna talk about. Right? So while we’ve been on, Decision Desk calls it for a runoff, but Warnec has been up over Walker.

Okay? He’s he he wasn’t gonna cross fifty percent threshold, but last time before I got came down here, he was at, like, forty nine point two. And and he was maybe running a point ahead of walk but the Libertarian and the race had shaved two points out that you gotta assume is coming from Walker, I think. And so this is gonna go to a runoff, and we’ve been talking about, like, what the dynamics of that runoff are gonna

be.

I’ve been, like

and I’ve never quite had the answer. For this. Because for me, it’s always there’s been two big things. One is, how big is Kemp’s tail? Right?

And so Kemp Kemp has a big tail. Big big win last night over Stacey Abrams. Okay. Forty nine point four. That’s pretty good for Hornock.

And then so so that’s one thing that’s now no you’re not gonna have to camp turn out machine. Right? Better than

he was, especially look, I think that’s better than what was worn out in twenty twenty in the first round. I think I don’t think I don’t think he was at forty nine. Was there a libertarian?

Do you remember? Yeah.

In both, I think. And Purdue well, so Purdue had us off, but Purdue was, like, at, like, forty nine point eight. Or something. Right? And and and I forget what the warmock first round.

So

so so there’s that element. And so then you take the libertarian out for the runoff But the question is is like, is Georgia going to determine control of the senate? Because if Georgia is not going to determine, control the senate. And this is, I guess, a question for you guys that I’ve been trying to think through. Do they play blood sport for it, or do they just let walker go?

Because he’s like he’s gonna humiliate them as a senator anyway. I mean, I think they gotta play

blood sport matter one.

I think they do too. I I I think that they do too, but I I just think it’s it’s a little bit harder to juice the enthusiasm, I guess. That’s what I’m gonna say. The Republicans play blood sport no matter what, like, the the strata the strategists that don’t but, like, if you’re trying to squeeze a couple extra million out of some depressed donors. That might be a little harder.

Right? I I think that if you are the nose holding walker voter, which there was some Yep. You know, it’s like am I really gonna go out again in December to vote for this asshole that I didn’t even like if it doesn’t matter. Right? Like, it’s a lot easier to convince the Naso Holding Walker voter to go.

If it’s like, you’re not really going out for Walker, you’re going out for for Mitch and for tax cuts and whatever, you know. I do think that there’ll be an enthusiasm issue for Herschel. And then, by the way, circling back to our second topic. Donald Trump, not dead. Nope.

Not disappeared. Not painting in Midland. Still alive. So, like, what’s he gonna do? Is he gonna go there and scare and scare the the Georgia red dogs away again just like he did last time?

Is he gonna not go? And there’ll be there’ll be drama around that where some of the people in MTG’s district don’t show up. I think that all of that is

is possible. And

I and so I do think that that it’s a much better situation for Republicans as far as unity is concerned. And and momentum if if it’s a decide senate deciding thing. And for the Democrats who’s really going with, I guess, it’s worth mentioning as we think long term as we I’ll start to, you know, get get bullish on things. The twenty four map is really bad for Democrats compared to this year’s — Really bad. — and so Really bad.

The Democrats are at fifty one. If they do hold on here with Kelly and Masto, It’s it’s actually an important seat for the Democrats. I mean, a, because fuck Hershel Walker and you don’t want this asshole in the senate, but b, it it adds a little bit of Cushion. Yeah. For for going forward when you’ve got all these all these red state demo, you know, Sharon Brown and Mansion and Tesla who often defend themselves.

So So I I I think that that’s a real thing as far as as far as an enthusiasm gap based on the stakes. Yep. Yep. Yep. Alright.

Listen, before we get out

of here, I

wanna we’ve

been much too upbeat from my comfort level, and I would like to remind both of you and viewers that J. D. Vance is going to become a United States senator. J. D.

Vance. He did it. He got away with it. He beat Josh Mandel by, like, five votes in the primary, and only because Donald Trump pulled him across the

line. He

then beat a action were real Ohioan who, you know, ran a great campaign against him. He JD Vance himself sort of barely tried. And then last night in his Victory speech, name checked, I think thirty four different people that he thanked, none of whom’s name

was Trump. He’s Rolando

Tommasi. He’s the guy who got away with it. And I don’t

know about you,

but I find it hard to enjoy any thing in life knowing that there are guys like JD Vance out there getting away

with it. Thoughts? But can

I yeah. Can I put an optimistic spin on that? Optimistic spin. So JD Vance is a craving pugelist, and I love him. However, the JV

dance that we

saw three years ago was like pretty normal guy. In fact, he was one of us. The guy’s in there, it’s probably his true self. Like, the guy that he’s been cosplaying, the drummer. And I think that as far as having, like, really My guess is as he goes to the senate, and he

acts pretty normal.

No. No. No. I don’t You think

that J. D. Vance becomes the Marjorie Taylor Green of America.

No. Not Marjorie Green, but I think that he thinks that he has a unique brand, has whatever, the pop the smart populist, right, you know, who could offer this deal. And I I do and I and I think that he’s he’s gained a deep well of resentment for the elites that shunned him after he was praised by them vociferously. It’s unclear to be why that bothers him so much. That I think that he does not like that they’ve turned on him.

And and I think that he does I think that he’s gonna, you know, do that we shouldn’t fund Ukraine and the whole deal. I I don’t I don’t know that he’s going full margetail Green, but I think that he’ll be a pain in the ass.

Yeah. You know what, though? The thing is, like, there’s just like a crowd of boys like that now in the senate. Right? You’ve already got that’s what all he is.

That’s sort of

a cruises and like JB thinks he’s running for president.

Not this

cycle, but he thinks he’s running for president at some point. Oh. As sure as I am sitting here, you pencil him in for twenty twenty twenty That’s ridiculous. That’s ridiculous. Hundred percent.

Well, I’m just happy. I’m turning back to a

happy note. That if this podcast had aired last week, JBL would have caveated his twenty twenty eight presidential prediction by saying if we still have a democracy in twenty twenty eight. So even Dark JBL, there’s a little bit of light and optimism in there, you know, that the fact that you feel like we’re gonna make it to twenty twenty

eight. Now. We’re gonna make it. Yeah. But

JBL, it’s also on some of your analysis, you know, and and we can talk more about this on on Friday from the secret pod. But, like, you know, I think one of the open questions really was how much people were gonna go with the economy. And, you know, you would started to kinda towards the end be like, yeah, the fundamentals reasserting themselves or whatever. But prior to that, prior to that, you’ve you’ve kinda been like, I don’t know that like, I don’t you mostly wanted to fire people into the sun for for Carrie about this. But, like, you also thought maybe it wasn’t gonna be, like, a a a thing that dominated people as much.

And I think it turned out I I hear a bunch of, by the way, this this idea that that abortion is an economic issue, people should just stop with that. That’s not a thing. But the idea that people were willing to think about democracy slash go against these extremist candidates. Like, and the economy didn’t I mean, it just didn’t sweep Republicans in. That that’s pretty consistent with where you were.

JBL was right? Where’s

your JBL was right? T shirt? You were you this whole time you mocked me and and you’re like, you guys aren’t care about gas prices. The guys guys aren’t that bad, and we’re like, what are you talking about? They are bad.

And you’re like, well, in comparison, they’re not that bad. It’s not a big of a deal. And the people did what you wanted. The people did what you wanted. They’re like, yeah.

I’m gonna eat this extra buck on the gas pump and deal with that because a lot of crazy shit’s happening out there in

the world and I don’t want these lunatics in charge. So I I I wanna have, like, a a real deep discussion on this at some point, not today, but I’m gonna just put this as a beanie or bonnet. I think that the right track, wrong track numbers in America are basically broken as an indicator. Ritrak or OnTrak used to be a really important political indicator. And I think we’ve been sort of heavy wrong track now for something like sixteen of the last eighteen years when you look at it.

If I was gonna yes. And again, I’m just sort of putting this forward as a thesis. I’m prepared to defend it. What’s going on is that the hyperpolarization has made it like we like the poll where, like, seventy five percent of America thinks that democracy is in peril. And, like, on the top line, you’re, like, that’s good.

People understand what’s going on. Then when you look into the numbers, you realize, oh, no. The people who wanna, like, overthrow democracy, think the democracy isn’t parallel. I think that’s what’s happened with right track, wrong track, where it’s the polarization has made it so that no matter what’s happening, you’re gonna have the vast majority of the country saying we’re on the wrong track because of negative in partisanship and in other stuff that’s going on in terms of how we view the world. Yeah.

Because you have a

baseline forty five, negative. Right. Right. Like, you’re starting at forty five negative no matter who you are, I get just as long as you have it, or unless you, like, are a non political person unless it’s, you know, you know, like, the we’re right track, we’re on track, starting at forty five. You’re not gonna be non political because it’s about the president.

You’re starting at forty five immediately, and so that any any issues on your own side. But also people look at it and, like, you know, So

if you’re a Democrat, right, you can look at America and say wrong track, not because of — Okay. — anything is going on, but because of — Right. — not because of Joe Biden. Even, but because of, like, well, look at what the republican is. Everything’s terrible.

Right? They’re trying to — Right. — they’ve they’ve overturned up. I I just think that The fifty fifty country, a deeply polarized fifty fifty country means that no matter what’s going on and who’s in charge

basically everybody’s unhappy

most of the time. Howard Bauchner: Yeah,

so I agree with

this except we should dig into this because I’m not sure it’s the polarization is quite telling the story. I think you’re right because we I think part of it is right. The now both sides view the other side as an existential threat. And so that gives you not just wrong track but, like, really bad, wrong track. Like, the other side’s in charge, you are catastrophizing.

I think the question is is, like, why does it just, like, sit in the seventies? I I was doing a thing on I did it an hour on WNYC the other day, and I was talking about how sad of these I was like, there’s nobody sadder than these swing voters right now. Like, when you listen to them, you know, there’s a and he was like, Well, what about, you know, last cycle? Were they happier last cycle? And I was like, oh, no.

They were so depressed about COVID or whatever. And he’s like, what about before that? And I was like, well, was really talking to Trump voters who were dissatisfied with Trump so they hated it. And I was like, you know what? Actually, now when I think about it, no one’s ever been happy.

Now, granted, I’m looking for persuadables. So I think I’m talking the unhappiest people, but there is something to be said for. We maybe just be in a mindset in this country where we have lost that sense of a positive future, and it’s creating a much more negative perspective on future outlooks. Yeah. That’s a that’s

subject of a

seven

thousand word piece. Alright. Lism, gotta go Great show, guys. Listen. Hit the subscribe button.

Follow us along. Go to the bulwark dot com. Sign up for all the great stuff we’re doing over there. We got Charlie Sykes his morning newsletter every morning for free. We got great pieces put out by smart people like Sarah and Tim.

With no ads or anything. You just get it. Get all that stuff for free at the bulwark dot com. Thanks a lot. We

will follow-up on our socials and get our comments. I’m stuck in Maricopa County the rest of the week still. You know, there’s nothing to do.

I’m gonna keep you

posted. I’ll be doing little dispatches on the floor. Alright.

Guys, we will see you again next week. Bye. Bye.