David Corn: Trump Is Still a Threat

Welcome to the Bullework Podcast. I’m Treleys x. Well, that did not go the way Donald Trump, I think, had anticipated that it would go. The very, very low energy announcement that is just getting trashed into the reviews. You know that it’s bad when even Ivanka is bailing out.

I mean, it’s one thing for the Murdochs to turn against him. You know, the New York Post, actually, puts the announcement at the bottom Florida man. It’s announcement probably the most savage way possible. You’re you’re having other major donors who are bailing. But when Ivanka issues a statement within minutes saying, hey, I love my dad, but I am totally out of this one.

You know that things are a little bit different. There’s a different vibe, but it is, of course, we have to caution you, highly premature to think that This is the end of Donald Trump. So joining me to talk about all of this. Is David Korn Washington Bureau Chief of Mother Jones Analysts for Emma NBC News latest book is American Psychosis, also writes the newsletter, Our Land. So first of all, Welcome back to the podcast, David.

I wanna say great to be with you, Charlie, but give him what we’re talking about today. I’ll just say, please to be here. You know, what was interesting yesterday? I was I was just thinking about the moment how quickly the civil war and the Republican Party just burst into full flame. I mean, the recriminations, the knives being out.

Kevin McCarthy, who has done every possible contortion of self humiliation is still short of the votes to be speaker. In the senate, you have MEGA coming for Mitch McConnell. And then, as I wrote in my newsletter this morning, right on cue, the symbol and the architect of all of the chaos comes out and says, hey, I would like six more years of of this. And it is it is kind of a remarkable moment. You know, I this would have been a brilliant, I think you could certainly argue.

This would have been a brilliant announcement. To have made last night if the Republicans had run the table if he’d have Carrie Lake standing by his side but it had very different vibe, didn’t it last night? Yeah. It kind of felt a little cheesy, more cheesier than usual. There were no

high profile figures with

Donald Trump

as he made his announcement, including his family members. You know, it kinda looked like, you know, he’s he’s doing it on the side. You know, it it wasn’t very it wasn’t very royal. You know, here he comes back into the fold and, you know, it’s like the rock star who, you know, has been out of circuit for a couple years. He’s now doing a comeback tour.

I mean and people are excited about that. You know, it looked like the usual assortment of hangers on at Marlargo, kind of the Star Wars Bar scene — Yeah. — Rogers Young,

Madison Hawthorne, my pillow guy, and Dick Morris.

Let me yeah. Yeah. That’s it. I mean, this is this isn’t even we’ve got from Fox News to maybe o a n. Right?

It’s like it it’s It’s a pale copy of what Trumpism used to be, and there was a clip going around Twitter this morning of you know, into his second hour of talking, people were trying to leave the ballroom, but they were not allowed to for security purposes. So it felt a little bit too, like, the Titanic. It’s like, give me the give me the lifeboat here. I went out. Now, you know, we can joke about this particular appearance.

But I know you agree with me that there is something that’s quite serious about this. The Trump is incited in this direction, try to kill American democracy is sort of back in the game. And no matter what route of murder can the other say, he still has a chance at the nomination. And if you have a chance at the nomination, you have a chance at the White House. I

think that’s absolutely true. And I and I think that that is the reality check that despite all of the all of the recriminations, all the people bailing, Donald Trump has seen this before, and he’s quite confident that he can do a repeat of what he did in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen. And he’s not necessarily wrong given the dynamics. Your comment about the people leaving the ballroom, I think, is highly important because the worst thing that could happen to Donald Trump, I’m I’m trying to think through the alternative scenarios which we’ll get to in a moment because I I I agree with you that that, you know, the the default setting has to be that he’s the presumptive nominee, but if he’s not, if there if this is gonna go sideways, a number of things have to happen, including the fact that he is perceived as a big loser and even worse than that as a boring loser. And there was a real boring vibe to that that, you know, Amanda Carpenter wrote this morning in the Bulwark, bored people tried to leave before Trump was even finished speaking.

Others simply turned their back to him and talked through his remarks and keep in mind these attendees were ostensibly among his most dedicated and connected aids and supporters. They were bored and he sounded bored. So I just I laid that out there. Hey, before we get into this, David, though, I wanna play this monologue that kind of went to Bible yesterday from our colleague, Vaughan Hilliard over at NBC who was on morning, Joe, and has been covering the Kerry Lake campaign. And he sort of sums it up and then connects the dots to what we saw last night.

And I wanted to play this because this I think sets the stage for the moment that we are in. This is NBC’s Vaughan Hilliard yesterday on morning, Joe.

CoverED CARRY Lake for the better part of the last year and a half here. And I think he was perhaps fitting to be here across from Mar a Lago today. Finally, it flew yesterday from Arizona here. And essentially, though, I felt like it was covering Donald Trump’s campaign of twenty twenty four, but in Arizona over the last year, she predicated her campaign on trying to sell the big lie. And trying to sell the conspiracy theories.

When she wonders how she lost this race, look at it. This is the third election cycle in a row in which Arizona’s rejected Trumpism. In the final week of her campaign, who did she campaign alongside? She campaigned alongside Steve Bannon. She campaigned alongside one of the chief promoters of PizzaGate.

She campaigned alongside an individual who promoted the notion of the war on white people. SHE CAMPAIGNED ALONG SIDE STATE SENATOR Wendy Rogers WHO JUST EARLIER THIS YEAR WAS HERE IN FLORIDA, SPEAKING AT A WHITE NATIONALESS CONFERENCE. SOMEBODY WHO frequently spews antisemitism. This is an individual who just last week called her Democratic opponent a pervert. This is an individual who suggested there should be purple for elections officials, criminal charges against individuals who oversaw COVID response in twenty twenty in Arizona.

This is an individual who’s celebrating putting a dagger in the quote, the McCain machine. She asserted that Cindy King McCain wants to end America. She called Mike Glendale, one of the great patriots of our time. She said Dinesh DeSousa is one of the greatest patriots in America. She suggested Paul Goser was the kind of lawmaker of founding father’s vision.

She called the media the right hand of the devil, the scourge of the earth. But that doesn’t sound like Donald Trump. I don’t know what does. And ultimately, the big question was, was she gonna be able to make that sell here? And the answer is no according to Arizona voters.

And when you look at that slate of election and Iors from Tudor Dixon to Tim Michaels, it to Jim Marchant in Nevada, to Mark Finchham. She was the latest one to fall, essentially making it a clean sweep. Of those not only election I are gubernatorial candidates and secretary of state candidates. And now Donald Trump is going to go and try to run on the very message that all these folks lost on. So

David Korn, that really sums it up that Donald Trump is going to run on the issues and the attitude and the vibe of all of these candidates that were just swept away. That’s the important context about where we are right now.

Yeah. And I I agree with everything that Vaughan said. I would add this note of caution to any triumphatism that a pro Democrat, small d, Democrat, American might be feeling. I’m looking at the results right now. Carrie Lake, who was just accurately described as a bonkers conspiracy theorist who campaigned with the most extreme crazy folks in Trump world got forty nine point six six percent of the vote.

One million two hundred fifty nine thousand six hundred and eighty eight Arizonans said, yeah, I want that. Only fifty point thirty four percent of the Arizona electorate rejected that or voted in favor of Katie Hobbs. So, yes, she lost this is less a overwhelming rejection of Trumpism than, you know, we might see in this binary win lose fashion. So, you know, I imagine Trump looking at this says, well, she was a woman who couldn’t do the job. I can.

And, you know, I can get from forty nine point six six percent to fifty point o one percent when she couldn’t. Now I’m not saying he can, but I’m saying, you know, even though all the election deniers lost statewide races, whether it was secretary of state or governor, some of the main senate races as well, they all got in the mid to high forty percent range. That means that tens of millions of Americans still are okay with the big lie, with the January sixth direction, with the way Trump panel COVID and all the other Michiganists as we say. So that goes back to, you know, the issue that people are taking on this morning, which is, you know, Trump coming back and does he have a chance? And I think this indicates, yeah, he has a hell of a chance because these people are Republicans.

And if they vote for Carrie Lake, they’re certainly gonna vote for Donald Trump, and he, you know, doesn’t need to get non Republican votes to win the primary, maybe in a few places, he needs some independence. But if he’s thinking just about winning the nomination, the fact that Kerry Lake did so well that these secretary of states came within a point or two of winning, that’s, you know, him. He’s like, well, I got millions of people buying this BS, and they’re gonna vote for me again. So in some ways, it’s great that there was this outright rejection. We can be thankful as we sit down for

Turkey next week, but there are tens of millions who are still within this Trump fever. Well, and and I think you’re making an important point here that that right now is gonna focused on getting the nomination. And having forty percent or even thirty eight percent of the electorate may be enough for him. It was in twenty sixteen if if the race is fractured, if there’s a bunch of candidates in the race. And look, you and I are both old enough We we have seen this movie before.

I feel multiple times. I mean, we remember access Hollywood. Remember what the reaction the day after that. We remember what it was like after January sixth. And as as you said, you wrote yesterday, you know, the GOP effort to separate themselves from Trump after January sixth was about as long lived as the life of a fruit fly.

And I guess the question we have to ask ourselves is why do we think this is different, particularly when Donald Trump will make it absolutely clear that he will burn down the house if he doesn’t get this nomination.

And the first thing we need to know, Charlie, will anyone take him on?

You

know, Rhonda said just as well imposed, but he hasn’t announced yet. I mean, it’s it’s a major decision for him to decide whether to go up against this thresher of Donald Trump who will do everything possible to destroy him, to burn him down, and to burn down the GOP if he feels he’s losing ground himself. It’s great to talk about a lot of this stuff, but until we know that there’s a single other candidate in the race Donald Trump is the leader in the presumed nominee. And I’m not counting Larry Hogan. I’m not counting was Cheney, bless her for the work she’s done the last year or two, but she can’t win Republican primary.

She couldn’t win the Republican primary in her home state, you know, and that’s kind of a badge of honor for her. You know, who’s gonna take him on? You know, who is we’re talking to now? And encouraging to get into the race and promising that, you know, don’t worry about Trump, I’ll take care of him. And is that even possible.

Yeah. It it ends up being I mean, this is still it is still a democracy to a certain extent, and it will be up to the Republican voters to decide. Now Rupert Murdoch might be able to guide them or push them in one direction or another. But ultimately, it’s the base that has been radicalized by the Republicans that still believe Barack Obama was born in Kenya that still believe that the democrats are involved with sex trafficking rings that still believe that January six is no big deal, still believe the big lie. I mean, those are If not, majority positions, gigantic realities within the Republican base.

So and those are the people who are gonna pick the nominee. Well,

I think that’s inarguable. I I agree with your analysis, but let me play devil’s advocate here — Your alternative. — because over the last six years, one of the things we’ve learned is that we need to ask ourselves what if we’re wrong, what if this time is in fact different. I kind of explore this during my newsletter today. So in order for Trump to lose in this primer, you have to have a lot of things that would happen.

Number one, what you mentioned, it’s gotta be a one on one. It can’t be, you know, a a six candidate race. That’s number one. And Republicans have proven themselves incapable of doing that so far. But also, you have to have the the message that it is time to turn the page, you know, that perhaps we have a younger, smarter race bating demagogue with authoritarian impulses and a desire to fight culture wars, who can replace it.

Those were your words, by the way. You know, we got the guy who can do this, who can be, you know, in office for eight years, who is not going to lose. So you have to have the the turn of the page thing. You have to have donors free. You have to have, you know, the Mag and Media begin to to to splinter.

Maybe a little bit of that is is happening. And I think what’s going to be interesting to see is how the base responds to this this sense that that Donald Trump you know, they may love him, but he can’t win and that it’s gotten old. So one of the big tests is gonna come, when and if. I’m assuming when. He is indicted.

The conventional wisdom is, and I share this by the way, that the base will rally around him. There’ll be There’ll be a backlash, a pro Trump backlash within the MAGA base, but that may also add to doubts about his debility if if a guy like Ron DeSantis can say, look, I I I give you everything that you’d get with Trump, but I’m not under indictment. I’m I’m not seventy seven years old whether or not that will make make a difference. I also think it’s interesting now that the timing here because Trump figured that he could get out in front of everybody. You know, he would preempt to the Department of Justice, he’d preempt to Sandoz, but now they’re going to be several months where the target’s on his back.

He will be out there alone. And so he’s going to be spinning stuff about the twenty twenty election. He’s gonna be flinging out his insults against Rhonda Sandis. Rhonda Sandis can sit back and go, okay, this guy, you know, he’s flailing, he’s fearful, he’s, you know, living in the past. It’ll be interesting to see how the next three or four months plays out.

Well, I think

you’re right about that, but I do think, you know, Trump

you know,

he

has the right instincts when it comes to self victimization. And connecting with the grievances and resentments and fears and paranoia of the base of the public and electorate. And so if he gets indicted and, you know, it’s a big call for Fox and for other Republicans about whether or not to accept those indictments as legitimate or whether they’re part of the deep state Biden and tifa communist plot against Trump, I mean, Trump has always portrayed the attacks on him as the attacks on you, meaning his voters. Right? So the justice department is coming after me because they don’t like you.

And it’s, you know, it’s very clever on his part, and it creates this feeling of community. They’re attacking all of us. So when this happens, if he comes to be indicted or if Fox or someone turns on him, he will then say to the voters, they’re coming at me because of you. And they hate you and try to rally people against them. And part of his argument has been that they robbed you of me in the twenty twenty election.

So if someone comes along and even if they say, I think this prosecution is rigged and fixed and and illegitimate, but we need somebody else. That person is automatically placed on the other side. You know, the anti Trump’s side, either they’re oh, they’re not supporting the justice department prosecution or or the or the Fox attack, whatever it might be, but they’re part of that. And so, you know, what’s the what’s the saying? Don’t go against the king unless you can kill the king.

So trying to thread the needle here and not be portrayed as being anti part of the liberal, anti Trump effort. Well, criticizing or attacking Trump, that is a really hard two step. For any Republican out there. I don’t know how the scientists or someone else pulls out off. And, you know, David from our our colleague, has a peace out in the Atlantic today that basically makes this point and says that the only way the Republicans can defeat Trump.

If that’s what they wanna do — Yeah. — is to hammer him. You can’t finesse it. You can’t wait for it to happen. With the justice department.

You have to say what he did was wrong, and he’s and and and what he would do his president would be would be wrong. You can’t say he had great policies, but now it’s not time for him. Or, you know, maybe we don’t want a president who might have fight with the justice department. You have to come out and you know, and as as you and others have done. And I don’t think that can happen on the Republican side.

Right? Yeah. He’s right

about the analysis that you have to go Adam, but and you are right that it’s very hard to imagine even Iran DeSantis going at him because that risks then breaking up his credit with the the magba base to go after the armed god king. What I think they’re hoping well, and what they’ve always hoped for is that something will come along. Yes. A a meteor, a stroke — Mhmm. — a big mac.

Some if we just don’t say anything, this will sort itself out. Right. And

and the

artery Right? This is not going to happen. This will not save them, but I don’t think that they have realized that because no one has the stomach for that or so far no one has the stomach for that. Now you do have people like Chris Christie who are hammering him, but Chris Christie is never gonna get this nomination. That’s just not going to happen.

And you you know that most of these others are not going to be able to do anything about it. Now, to your point about the way this will play out, it’s interesting watching National Review once again. There’s a moment of Deja vuv for us all. The editors go, no, absolutely not. We will never go along with Donald Trump.

The degenerate conservatives making it clear that they are just not going to to tolerate this before. Well, of course, They did that before making their peace. And I think that Donald Trump instinctively understands that that once he breaks them, they will come back to him. So I was I was watching, you know, Mark Tyson who inexplicably has a column in the Washington Post. He’s a Republican hack.

And He was on Fox News saying what a disaster the election was and how we need to move on from Donald Trump. I’m you know, that Donald Trump is politically toxic. And yet then he goes on this, you know, make it I wanna make it clear. I’m I’m not never Trump because I think he was wonderful on vaccines. I think he was fantastic on on the Middle Eastern courts.

He praises him. And Donald Trump looks at him and goes, I’m not afraid of him because you know what? When push comes to shove, he’s coming back. He’s gonna he will support me in a general election. All of them will eventually decide, well, okay, we’ve had our differences with Donald Trump, but these democrats are just, you know, so communist and atheistic and dangerous that we can’t possibly not vote once again for Donald Trump.

He understands that. That is the pattern that has been established.

And if you say that Trump was a decent president, then why would you not want him back? I mean, if he believed the guff that Trump said at his announcement last night that, you know, there was the best economy ever. He handled COVID perfectly. Everywhere around the world the United States has respected. And in the last year and a half, the country has completely turned into a hellscape.

Then, of course, you’d want them back. The issue is gonna be, if anyone takes some on without taking them on, there’s no internal logic.

To their

argument. Well, they accept the sense that he can’t win if they convince themselves. Well, he’s wonderful, but we need to give him a gold watch

because he can’t win. But but I don’t think you can sell that to to the Trump voters. You know, you can try to make that argument. I think I think he will push aside that argument pretty easily and and say this is a false argument being used by people who don’t like Trump. Don’t like Trump.

You know, and I’ve been out there fighting for you. I’m trying to save still trying to save the twenty twenty election for you. And I don’t think that the conspiratorial base which I think is the largest part of the base now, will be persuaded by establishment Republicans that the reason they shouldn’t vote for Trump IS BECAUSE HE’S NOT LIKELY TO WIN AGAINST

THE ABOUT TO DROP DEAD AND TIFA CONNECTED JOE BIDEN. I think that’s right. I think part of the hope that we’re gonna see again is that Malvin is in the race over the next few months that somehow that he will discredited himself so thoroughly or disqualify himself. It’s like, I said, you’re gonna tell me to the people who believe, let’s show him let’s give him a platform because people will see how crazy he is, and they’ll turn against him. David, you’re laughing because, like, we we live through

this. Right? I know. We’ve been talking yearly. We’ve lived in this for the last, you know, seven years now, which is longer than the in world war two or world war one of the civil war.

And even before Access Hollywood, I’ll tell you the story. You remember, like, when he first announced in twenty fifteen in June whenever it was, And, like, literally within seconds, he was attacking John McCain. Yeah. Right? And everybody out there in the Republican universe was going, Oh, tuck, tuck, tuck, you can’t do this.

This shows he’s not serious and that he’s not going anywhere. We don’t have to worry about this guy. I remember going on hardball with Chris Matthews. I said, Chris, I don’t think these people understand. The Republican base doesn’t like John McCain, and the fact that Trump is punching him in the nose is gonna actually make him attractive to to these people.

They’re angry. They wanna see someone hit the Republican establishment. And I was later told by one of Trump’s advisers. That they were giddy watching cable coverage of people believing that Trump had made a mistake. They believe this was completely right on.

It was part of his brand and it would show whether or not he actually had Elaine Ford, and this guy said to me, you know, you and a few others, you know, made the point that we were afraid would be made. You know, we were happy to have this seen as a tactical era. We wanted the Republican establishment to think that. So I’m glad that no one listened to you is kind of what the message was. So, you know, McCain, Axis Hollywood, Helsinki, you know, siding with Putin, and inciting a riot.

You know? So, I mean, you know, talk about magical thinking on the part of Republicans. But let me ask you this.

Because I

don’t know what I think. Does desantis have the

cohenus

or the desire? Or even just, you know, does he think it’s a good move? To get into a caged match with

Trump. See, no one knows the answer to that question. I know that there are people around him who who are telling him that he can handle it, but the questions does. You have a glass draw? You know, does he have the covenants to go up against?

No one knows that. I mean, until you’ve done it — Yeah. — can’t imagine it apparently. I mean, look at the reputations and the political futures that, you know, were were absolutely utterly trashed back in two thousand sixteen, look what what Donald Trump reduced them all to. So The question that Rhonda Santos has to ask himself, is that at his age, does he wanna go through that?

Does he wanna go through that kind of a meat grinder? And no one knows the answer to that. And he can wait four years. He’s,

you know, he can wait eight years. Yeah. Well, I

the way

American politics go, he can wait another forty years. Right? Yes. Yes.

So one of the

the funny things I heard yesterday was and I’m I’m I’m not gonna name the person because I’m not trying to, you know, diss anyone. But in the wake of the election affected election denial and the re litigating twenty twenty was not what voters were responding to. Would Donald Trump, you know, change his message, would he, you know, not go there? And the point was made that, well, you know, the the grown ups, the serious people on on his staff are telling him, yeah, let’s move on from twenty twenty. Let’s not talk about twenty twenty.

Let’s not engage in election denialism. And I’m thinking, what over the last six years makes you think that number one he has the discipline to not talk about it? Or that that would really be a problem for him. And then here let me just play a little sound bite from last night, which was a very buttoned up speech, very much a teleprompter speech. This was Donald Trump at his most reigned in, most boring, most sober, but there was this moment

as well. Including

the raid of a very beautiful house that sits right here, the raid of Mar a Lago, think of

it. And

I say, why

didn’t you raid Bush’s place? Why didn’t you raid Clinton?

Thirty two

thousand emails. Why didn’t you raid Clinton’s place? Why didn’t you do? Obama who took a lot of things with him. He’s not

gonna be able to help

himself busy, and it probably won’t make a difference. Yeah. I don’t think

he will. He can help himself I mean, there wasn’t a lot of election denialism last night. So on the Trump scale, he seemed to help himself by not going too deeply into that. But I saw a poll, I don’t know, was it was it a you gov poll in the last day or two, you know, that showed descent is going from I’m I’m making up these numbers, you can find it a line for, like, twenty nine to thirty five percent in terms of presidential preference amongst Republicans. And Trump went from forty eight to forty seven or forty seven to forty eight.

I I think that’s the morning console poll. Yeah. It was just like a straight line. Right? No real change.

And those are the people who want the greatest hits. They

want lock

her up. Right? They want, you know, the election was stolen. They want COVID was fine. And so even if he descends or, you know, gets off script and gets into that stuff as he does at his rallies all the time, I don’t see that as a turn off within the Republican primary, which is the only thing that the scientists or Nicki Haley have have to worry about now.

And I keep going back to this issue. What’s their line of attack on him? You can’t go to a a tiger, a wounded tiger and say, well, you know, mister Tiger, you’ve had your run. We love you. You’re one of our favorite tigers.

But now we need to move on to a different tiger. That doesn’t work with a, you know, with a wounded angry tiger. Who’s also hungry? Who’s hungry? We add we add that to the mix.

You know, in some instances, parties have been able to push aside you know, a candidate that they think may not be right or maybe passed his or her prime. It didn’t happen with Biden. Biden went all the way.

And there’s no party. Right? I mean, that’s what I’m

saying. There is no party. There is no people tend to think, and I I was just speaking in LA and people come up and go Well, the Democrats should do this or the Republicans should do that. I go, who you talking about? Yeah.

I don’t think they’re conspiratorial about it. But they believe the Republican National Committee of the Democratic National Committee that these committees can get together and can make decisions about strategy, messaging, and candidates. And it really doesn’t work that way. No.

It does not work that way at all. Now — Yeah. — you’re right that, you know, being buttoned up and, you know, helped them a little bit last night. But I I also think that there’s going to be a a backlash, and and again, those of us who’ve intention for some time know this pattern. Jona Goldberg, actually, I think, nailed it.

He says, here’s my prediction. Trump will be pissed by all of the reviews saying that his speech was boring in will leak sometime today or tomorrow that he’s mad at the at the advisers who counsel dullness, and he will then attempt to do something more outlandish, entertaining to get more attention. This is always the pattern that they’ll be like, one day will he’ll be quote unquote presidential and then he’ll be ticked about that. And he’ll lash out in some sort of way. So start the clock running because Donald Trump knows can’t be a loser.

He can’t be boring. So he’s going to have to do something. Whom the hell knows what? And the

thing is the more he does that, the more whoever decides to run against him will have to say, that’s bad. That’s wrong. That’s not what we wanted a president. That’s not accurate. That’s not fair.

That’s not good for democracy. Whatever the, you know, criticism is. It’s gonna be like if DeSantis gets in the race to anybody else, every time Trump does that, they’re gonna come to that candidate and ask for a response. And if you don’t say anything, you look weak. If you don’t, you know, slam it down hard somehow, you look like you’re acquiescing, Tim.

So Donald Trump, as we saw in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen, can really dictate the terms of the debate because he’s willing to be outrageous And if he says one racist thing that doesn’t get enough attention, let’s say something more racist or more outlandish. You know, that will keep coming back to any competition he has, then we’ll put them in a jam because some maybe many Republican voters will be in sync with what Trump is saying. Right? And to distance themselves from it, will not help with with the votes. And if you don’t do it, you look like you’re you’re just, you know, holding his coat again, which is what all these other guys did in twenty fifteen.

I mean, it’s a dynamic that’s really hard to get out of in the US in twenty fifteen. No one wanted to go first. Because they knew they would, you know, suffer the consequences. And everybody kept waiting for someone else

to do it. So this is what I was spinning up in my as I was listening to you. I’m trying to imagine this this scenario of somebody going at him. And, you know, I was thinking, so someone like a Rhonda Santis or a Glenn Youngkin, the next time that Donald Trump engages in an, you know, anti Chinese slur like, you know, cocoa chow or a young king or makes an anti semitic comment to call them out and saying, we can’t do this sort of thing. This would be the kind of attack.

And then, of course, you know, flashback to twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen when Paul Ryan stood up and said that it was textbook racism for Donald Trump to go after a Mexican judge. That was the beginning of the end for Paul Ryan, not for Donald Trump. So we’ve already seen what you just described no matter what Trump says, if any of his rivals call him out for racism, for sexism, for, you know, just offensive speech. He will then use that against them and it will hurt them while not eroding any of his support with the base. And that’s the thing I’m trying to imagine.

What would he say that would create an opening for a rival to attack him that would not hurt the rival. I can’t I actually am I’m having a hard time here. Now let me give Rhonda Santos. Yep.

Some advice which I’m a bit loved to do. The best thing I think for Ron DeSantis, if he decides to run and I have no idea, I I wouldn’t even bet on it because I just I I I have no foundation from from trying to predict what he will do here. But if he were to run, the best thing for him would be for Liz Cheney to run. Yeah. Because Liz Cheney would, you know, take a break back to Trump every day and Trump, you know, would probably take the bait, and the scientists could try.

I’m not sure he could succeed, but he could try to say, I’m not talking about Trump. I’m not talking about Liz Cheney. They can fight it out. I wanna talk about the future of America. I’m not sure that’s gonna win him the the nomination.

But it could be a way if if if someone else is taking on Trump. It could be a way for him to not be seen as abdicating that responsibility. Basically, letting get someone else do that. Who can’t win and know she can’t win and we’ll do it just for the pure pleasure of doing it.

Alright. So

David, let’s talk about Kevin McCarthy and Congress. We still don’t know what the margin is going to be. Kevin McCarthy, he was reelected as the party leader yesterday, but there were thirty one votes against him. He’s going to need virtually all of those to be elected speaker in January, that takes two hundred and eighteen votes. So first of all, just talk to me about Kevin McCarthy and whether or not you think he’s going to be the speaker.

I

don’t know. It’s the real answer here because I don’t I don’t know how committed those thirty one votes against him are. It’s easier for a Republican to vote against him within the caucus when they know he’s going to win than to be one of one, two, three, or a handful of Republicans who deny him the speakership when the ultimate vote counts. Right? If he needs two eighteen votes to be speaker, if there are two hundred and twenty Republicans at the end of the day in the house, then, you know,

three of them could get together

and deny in the speakership. That would be a major deal. And at the same time, those voters, those three members of the of the Republican caucus might try to leverage their votes to get something out of them, which is already process that that’s that’s underway. So I don’t know, you know, he’s not, you know, he hasn’t been a strong leader. You know, he he, you know, he has tried to move the party away from Trump after the January sixth riot and then saw that he couldn’t and quickly started kissing Trump’s took us.

So he’s been back and forth and flip flops and numerous issues and such. I mean, I know this is his dream job, but it could well turn into a nightmare. This is the worst job ever. Yeah. And and the fact that there aren’t real serious challenges to him out there.

That is other people who want the job, who, you know, who might be able to to to take it from him. Shows you something. I’m thinking that, you know, there’s no lack of ambition amongst members of Congress. So my guess is that that several of other leading possible Republican speakers are happy to let Kevin McCarthy take the first crack at it, and be there in the wings waiting to pounce when things go

awry. I think that’s a good take. You make another point though, you pointed out that the anti reality wing of the Republican Party obviously will have a stronger presence in this next congress. This was the first election since, you know, Trump’s brown shirts attacked congress. And the House Republicans were telling themselves for the election they would pay no no price for the attack on the capital or for the big line.

So they did underperform, but you’re right. The GOP’s narrow victory is still a prices for the nation. So what does a two three four vote Republican majority look like. What are you concerned about over the next year? I mean, there

were, I think, about a hundred and thirty nine house Republicans who voted against certifying the twenty twenty election. And as things stand at the moment, the number may go up. There are about a hundred and fifty members of the new Republican congress coming in who are designated, considered election deniers. So the crazy wing or component not even a wing. It’s a majority.

The, you know, the crazy block within the House Republican caucus has expanded. And these are people who want investigations of the twenty twenty election of the deep state, of the justice department, of the rate at Margolo, and also of Hunter Biden and Hunter Biden and Hunter Biden and maybe even investigations of Clinton in the emails in Benghazi. So there’s already a lot of chaos. And then a clock is that small with, you know, with such a small majority. You know, if someone says, I wanna investigate Barack Obama’s birth certificate.

And Kevin McCarthy says no, that will make us look bad. And he goes, well, I got three votes with me. Yeah. And we’ll vote against you, speaker, or we’ll call, you know, another vote. McCarthy may have to give these folks their day.

I mean, we see in general house Republicans over the last few years have not been interested in legislation. They’ve been interested in ship posting, and trolling, and owning the lives, and getting on social media, that’s, you know, people like Look at Margateela Green, a rather ignorant conspiratorialist who is seems to be one of the leaders of their Republican Party without doing

anything,

without

really doing anything. And I and and so she was kicked off the committees by the Democrats. Kevin McCarthy has said she will come back on. She’s angling for a spot on the oversight committee. Which would be doing a lot of these investigations, and she could end up with, you know, a sub sharing a sub committee of that of the Oversight Committee.

I didn’t count on that. And while election denialism was rejected in a lot of places, there will be a hotbed of extremism coming out of one half of congress. You

know, I think this

relates to it. You know, you you you mentioned that these folks have not been interested in substance or in power see. And and I think that’s it’s always interesting to see how a how a political party reacts to setbacks. And it’s interesting that there’s no discussion now about a change in direction of the party that would address the questions of streamism or the the fact that they don’t have policy answers for the things that they talk about all all the time. Because that almost feels like it’s irrelevant.

Doesn’t it? You know, To the extent that there is a debate about policy, you have people like Rick Scott saying we should have been more extreme. We should have been more oppositional. You have people like Ben Shapiro saying, you you don’t even you know, anyone that votes to codify same sex marriage should be expelled from the Republican party, all of those things. Doubling down on the things that didn’t work.

But there’s no host two thousand twelve Brink’s previous autopsy, which turned out to be complete bullshit. But you know, a sense of like, okay, what do we need to do to actually win elections? You know, if anything, Maga is arguing that we just need more of that we need more of that curry lake juice sort of thing. And I kinda wonder where this is going. Is anybody thinks that this majority is going to be chastened or moderate.

It just hasn’t been paying any attention whatsoever. That’s right. And as as you referenced your fellow Wisconsinite, rents previous after the

the party lost in two thousand twelve, said we need a recalibration. And he put out a report. It was called the autopsy report, a hundred pages long in which he said the republicans need to be seen as less extreme and more amenable to the interests and the desires of women voters and people of color and and be less harsh in our rhetoric and more big, tenty even on issues where we might disagree. And what came after that, Trumpism. You know, in continuation of the tea party, just a double down, a triple down on extremism, and you you’re gonna see that in the House, you know, we see some bit of a leadership battle on the Senate between Rick Scott and Mitch McConnell.

I don’t think that’s gonna amount too much. But when people talk about Ron DeSantis being the successor to Donald Trump, it’s not because he will lead the party in a different direction. He’s been just as extreme as Donald Trump, you know, sending immigrants to Martha’s venue to resting black voters. I think a poor record on COVID and, you know, fighting culture wars and creating moral panics. So it’s not about directing the party differently, it’s about a different drum major for the same parade of extremism.

But that may be the only way to break Donald Trump, given the toxicity of the Republican base. And I think you made this point before. The Republicans are not gonna turn to Larry Hogan or Paul Ryan or Liz Cheney, unfortunately. They’re going to turn to somebody who gives them that same dopamine hit of, you know, cruelty and extremism they get from Donald Trump. I

think that’s exactly right. I’m often asked, you know, what’s the future of all this? And I think in some ways, could burn out over a long stretch of time. It also could be that demographically, this is an older group of Americans, they will start dying off or becoming less involved. I mean, we did go through the fever of McCarthyism in the nineteen fifties it lasted several years, and then in some ways, it continued on in in different forms.

But it helped Republicans get elected in the early 50s, but wasn’t as much used to them in later years. So it is possible for the spasms of extreme politics to lessen. I don’t think they’re gonna go away. I don’t think the thirty percent of the population that’s there, that’s in this category now is going to be persuaded to reconsider their views and come to the realization that there is not a secret cabal of baby eaters running the country in the world. But I think, you know, there yeah.

The strategy, I think, for,

again,

pro democrats, small d democrats has to be to try to contain that section of the population and mobilize anybody else who’s, you know, who has some concern about the future of democracy and decency and reasonable debate in this country, whatever policy differences we might have to ban together. Donald Trump’s return might make that a bit easier? Well, he’ll focus

the mind. So let me ask you this question. And I don’t know the answer to it because there was a lot of talk about, you know, that finally speaking of Democrat graphics that young voters had turned out in big numbers. Did they? Every cycle, there’s all this speculation.

Well, if young people turned out and then, of course, they don’t. But did they this time? Do you have any indication? The initial exit polls say

so, but one thing you’re going about exit polls is you need to wait until they do the more extensive calculations and and look at. What I find interesting and I’m happy to see them do this that a lot of mega Republicans, you know, the Charlie Crooks of the world and Steve Bannon are out there saying that real problem is that young single women voted, you know, for Democrats. And they depict them as young, bitter, angry, single women like they’re because they’re not married. Cat owning skanks. Yeah.

That’s a winning message. And it’s like, well, well, you told them that they can’t control their own bodies. And, you know, listen, most people I know, enjoy sex. When we talk about abortion, we never talk about sex. The reason people, you know, get abortions because they engage in sex for non pro creative reasons and they like doing that.

And you’re coming along saying, no, you can’t. You’re also telling men, if this happens, you’re gonna be on the hook. Right? So it’s in some ways

a bit of

a warrant sex. And so if you’re young and single and you wanna do that and you wanna have control of your body to come on and say you’re just a bitter skank — Yeah. — is not a winning message. And I’m saying, you know, democrats should be saying, keep up with that. Keep doing that.

Lane with these young women that they’re stupid. They don’t understand things and they’re just driven by all the worst emotion. Those emotional women. That’s great. But I’ve been shocked.

Not that shocked. Miley surprised that this is where so much of magnitude and pretty expand is landing. And so the numbers are really high and if the more sophisticated exit polls or analyses show that that’s the case and that’s the case with the young people, it is a big problem for Republicans because there’s a lot of preexisting academic research that whoever you vote for initially is who you tie yourself to for much of the rest of your life. Yeah. Long term, it’s bad.

Well, there’s also a lot of pre existing academic research showing that you point out that people like sex. I think that’s pretty clear. So so the anti sex, anti young

woman party Yeah. Good luck. Go for that. I mean, it it goes to the larger point though that you raised earlier, Charlie, which is are there any lessons or will there be any lessons learned by Republican influencers, you know, whether they’re elected or out there banging the drum, the right wing media. And so far, I don’t see that with the exception of Fox just calculating that Trump probably can’t win in the long run, so they wanna push this is Rupert Murdoch.

Yeah. They wanna push the status. I mean, it’s pretty pretty amazing that when Trump announces The New York Post says Florida Man announces in one line at the bottom of the front page below a story about crime. And and that only happens. That only happens if one of the Murdochs tells the post, this is how we want you to play this.

Yeah. He is I

mean,

you don’t need to watch this session to know this. Yes.

I

think that’s a rock solid observation. David Korn. Thank you so much for coming back on the podcast. David is the DC Bureau Chief for Mother Jones. His latest book is American Psychosis.

You’re gonna need to update that by the way. Also writes the newsletter, Our Land, to which you should subscribe. David, thanks for coming back. It’s always great to talk with you, Charlie. Thanks.

The Bulwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio production by Jonathan Seres. I’m Charlie Sykes. Thank you for listening to today’s Bulwark podcast. We’ll be back tomorrow. Do this all over again.

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