Bill Kristol and A.B. Stoddard: Soak Up the Schadenfreude

Hello, and welcome to the Bulwark podcast. I’m your host Tim Miller. I’m so excited to be taking over for the great Charlie Sykes, so I don’t know why he had to pass the baton to me on Lundy Graw. I’ve been parade in, but we are gonna have a great week on this podcast. If you stick around for the end of the show, I have more to say about Charlie’s legacy.

And my plans for maintaining and growing it and what we’re gonna be doing on the podcast with me in the big chair. So stay tuned for that. But before we get to our guests, I just wanted to take a moment of personal privilege on this first show to tell you about one of the inspirations who got me here, my Mimi, Helen Miller, who died on Friday at the age of ninety nine. Helen was born in nineteen twenty five in Saint Louis, Missouri. Her life is a story book example of the greatest generation.

She lived above her family bakery as a child. She married the championship college basketball captain who then served in World War two, She raised a big Catholic family with seven kids, my father, the fifth. She was cheery and faithful and a bit of a spitfire. She had boundless energy. As a child, hers was the kind of grandma’s house that you got excited to go to.

Like, it was an amusement park because it kinda was really. When she learned of my love for WWFF wrestling, built a homemade ring in the basement with a costume box for me and my cousins to play in. She had a deep love of music and was still playing concert level classical music for to lose her great grandchild this year, age ninety nine. She also cared a lot about politics. Just a lifelong Republican.

Hell Republican? Her first vote was for Thomas Dewey against FDR. She loved Nick still in spite of it all. She had the Washington Times delivered to her home to balance out the liberal post dispatch. When I think about my budding childhood interest in politics, I think about my conversations with her above all.

We banter about the news and read the paper over our morning cheerios for as long as I could remember. In the fifth grade, right before we moved to Denver, a better one or that Bill Clinton would beat George h w Bush. I had a child six cents that Clinton was just cooler and was probably gonna win. I remember the sheer delight going to the mailbox and opening up the card and getting my one dollar winning. Was the last time.

Actually, I supported a Democrat until this word bills while he Hillary in twenty sixteen. In the last few years, as my politics diverged from hers, she’d still go along with some good natured tussling with me from time to time. One Christmas a few years back after she had a Martini and I had a few beers. We went added a little bit over Trump and immigration and whatever was in the news. But it wasn’t, like, one of those family fights with frayed nerves and hurt feelings.

My uncle tried to redirect it and intercept at us. She’s ninety five years old. Let’s not rile her up, but without missing a beat, me and me just shoot him off. He didn’t see that this discussion was part of our special connection. Yeah.

Our blood was flowing a little bit, but we liked that. Beneath the disagreements, was the memories, the nostalgia, the love. The debate petered out. We hugged. I gave her a playful little finger wag.

We may have disagreed in the final chapter, but the prelude to me being on this podcast was all those debates, all that discussion about the news. The shared passion for this country and how it works. I loved her very much. I’m gonna miss her very much. Hey there.

Welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I’m Tim Miller here with Bill Crystal, a, b, starter. We’ll be joining us shortly. Bill. Are you excited for this?

The new era?

Very much so. Very much so.

Me too. Me and Bill have been doing a YouTube show called ballot box every Tuesday. I am a sicko, but not so much of a sicko that I’m gonna do a daily podcast and a YouTube show with Bill Crystal. So he’s gonna be coming here on Mondays, many Mondays, where we’re gonna reconstitute that. You know, we mostly I made jokes.

He told Dan Quail stories, and we did some politics analysis. Right?

Tim told Jim Push stories, John the stories and, we we could go down a couple of roads here that would be not great for either of us.

Okay. Alright. Well, then let’s just move on. We’ve got a lot here. There was a successful deep state operation in Las Vegas.

I’m gonna wait for AB to get to that. Israel forces rescue two hostages in Raffa. With RFP Junior, big ad, fake outrage over the Bulwark National Anthem, border in fighting at the Biden White House. You had a very provocative opening newsletter that has some feathers ruffled. I wanna start with you with the most important thing, which is Donald Trump and his Russell affiliate.

So let’s listen people haven’t heard it. Donald Trump talking about his plans for NATO.

They asked me that question. One of the presidents of a big country stood up, said, Well, sir, if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us? I said, you didn’t pay. You’re delinquent. He said, yes.

Let’s say that happened. No. I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay.

You gotta pay your bills.

He’d encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want. William, thoughts about that?

I mean, so much to say about it. It’s a revealing and on a less important scale. Can we just stipulate that this did not happen? Because it doesn’t have a big country. Did not say sir.

What would happen if if if we didn’t pay our bills? What if that means? Of course, this is usual ludicrous invention. Secondly, this is also not the most important thing, The fact that the crowd seems to erupt into applause, at least the audio clip we just played does not reassure me about the health of the trump supporters among the Republican party. I mean, it’s just mind bogglingly irresponsible and dangerous, and many, many people have commented on it.

My only additional comment would be it’s not new. I mean, it’s good to call attention to these things when Trump gives us an opportunity to do so honestly. And if if from my point of view, if a few percent more Americans realize, geez, we can’t afford a second term with that guy. That’s great. So I’m not begrudging anyone commenting on this and and and pointing out you know, either at length or briefly how incredibly dangerous this is.

At the end, there’s something a little funny about some of the comments. It’s like, wow. We just discovered Trump would really be a wildly irresponsible foreign policy president who’s pro Putin and would support our allies. So

I mean, I do think there is the new context, and it’s not new because wars been going on for two years. But in his first term, right, there was the possibility of Putin. Aggression. Right? But right now, you know, we are seeing the reality of it.

And, and, certainly, it’s much more believable you could imagine putin, you know, if Trump got in there would try to move it in current and tomato territory. And so in that sense, this is making it a little more real.

Very much. It’s a very good point. I mean, it’s one of several reasons why a second trump term would be so much more dangerous than the first trump term was.

Friend Marco Rubio. You’re I think you I think you endorsed him in twenty sixteen. I can’t quite remember, but, I won’t There’s

so many people sequentially. I can’t even remember twenty sixteen. I think I might have voted from here in Virginia. That Jeff was out at that.

Joe was out by Virginia. We withdrew responsibly. SouthCO. I had a primary and and endorsed the person most likely to win, lie in Ted Cruz. So I didn’t exactly cover myself in glory.

Okay. Your boy, Marco, There’s one element of his reaction that I think is just worth chewing over. Let’s listen to him with Jake Tapper over the weekend.

Donald Trump is not a member of the Council Foreign Relations. He doesn’t talk like traditional politician. And, we’ve already been through this now. You think people had to figure it out by now. What he’s basically saying if you if you see the comments, he said NATO was broke or busted until he took over because people weren’t paying their dues.

And then he told a story about how he used leverage to get people to step up to the plate and and become more active. And NATO, he’s not the first American president. In fact, virtually every American president at some point in some way has complained about other countries in NATO not doing enough. You know, Trump’s just the first one to express it in these terms. But I I’m zero concerned because he’s been president before.

I know exactly what he has done and will do, with the NATO alliance, but there has to be an alliance. It’s not America’s defense with a bunch of small junior partners. Some of these are big countries with big economies. Many of them are doing more. Germans are doing a lot right now.

He’s just the only one to express in these terms, Bill. Other people have criticized NATO before, and, you know, child trump’s kind of criticizing NATO just not in the traditional diplomatic world. He’s just kinda saying, that Russia could invade an NATO country. And if they don’t pay up, then tough titties.

Right. And Marco, at the end, sort of, his little bit that remains of actual concern about real foreign policy in the real world kicks in and he says, yeah, actually, the Europeans are doing kinda more than we expected. And some of them stepped up. Germany’s actually doing better than we thought. But, of course, totally undercuts and initiates the whole idea that Trump should be saying this now.

But, yeah, I mean, it gets back to you, just your point earlier, it’s really worth just emphasizing. It’s one thing to be irresponsible speculatively in a world of peace or a world some UPS where Putin hasn’t been. Sure. It’s subsided. Some speak.

It’s another thing to be irresponsible now. Two years after the attack on your credit, two years into the war in Ukraine with things really in the balance in there and, of course, in Europe in general, out of the world in general, there is a level of irresponsibility that Trump’s exhibiting, but there’s a level of irresponsibility through defending Trump now. And since, you know, it’s not true of everyone I mean, seventeen senators voted to advance the Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, National Security bill, seventeen Republican senators, even though they sort of would referred, you know, to have the border thing, and they sort of said that we need the border thing. But, you know, at the end of the day, Rich McConnell, and some of these people said, okay, this is really a serious moment. We can’t continue to mess around.

Their members of the house, Mike Turner, who was in Kiev last week, says we’re going to work around speaker Johnson, if we have to with possibly with a discharge petition. So some Republicans, I don’t want to rephrase them to say been horribly irresponsible in so many ways, but, you know, are sort of being a little more responsible now. But not not Marco. Who voted against advancing the bill? I mean, he he was a mister international responsibility back in twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen.

Right?

Yeah. I mean, even Rand Paul said this was stupid. I mean, when when Rand Paul is acting more responsible than you and you’re talking points, that should be concerning about foreign policy. I like the thing that really grinds my about this, which is why I wanted to play it. It’s this talking point.

The term gaslighting annoys me, but there’s nothing that is more clearly gaslighting than this. Like, you think people would have figured it out by now that Trump just has a little bit of rough talk, you know, but that he’s actually responsible that he actually is a good president, that it’s just You know, sometimes he just, you know, does a little queen’s banter. What are you talking about, Marco? The assault on the capital was a direct result of Trump’s irresponsible rhetoric. They’re still trying to get away with this notion that that you should take him seriously, but not literally.

Like, in twenty twenty four, it’s just really fucking maddening.

It is maddening. And tomorrow is the third anniversary. Of the vote in the senate not to convict Trump after he’d been impeached. And one of I think seven Republican senators did the right thing. And Marco Rubio was one of those who followed cuddle and and said, no.

No. No. You know, well, the system will take care of this over the next three years.

Brutal. Okay. I wanna bring an AB. Last thing though, you you have more conversations than I do with folks in Europe you know, that are kind of part of this alliance. As far as the level of alarm is concerned, you know, anything to add on, kind of, the view from our friends in Europe at this point?

No. It’s getting close to ten out of ten and by the way, say that is ten out of your alarm scale.

Yeah. And

I think for the reason you said, I mean, it’s one thing to be sort of speculatively you know, Javao in Europe to get them to spend more again when we’re sort of at peace. And but now say this with the Republic with the fight going on in Congress about continuing our support for Ukraine and with the situation they face. I think they are just really coming to grips with how very, very dangerous. A Trump second term would be. So they’re very alarmed.

I mean, they they always get a little nervous. You know, they way way beyond nervous. Now now they’re, you know, true alarm.

Alright. Let’s bring in a b. We’ve got much to discuss. A b’s dotard. Can we see what you got on there?

When’d you put that together? That’s for people that are listening. That is a red sweater with it looks like some construction paper, yellow number eighty seven on there.

Yeah. So I got inspired to do a DIY. I don’t have the chief skier around my house. So I’m not a chief fan. I don’t fall football.

But I decided to don some celebratory deep state globalist Garb in honor of Travis Kelsey and Taylor, and she was covered in eighty sevens. People found them on her boots, on her neck, on her, like, nail, you know, the whole thing. Anyway, I don’t know. I just like woke up and freaked out and decided I had to just I’m really enjoying the fact that they all had to root with Nancy Pelosi for a San Francisco team in Magaland, and they just they had rough nights. So there’s a lot of darkness that we need to get to.

So this was my way of, like, brightening my Monday.

I have a little bit more shot from him. I have one note. We could have had the Pfizer band date from your vaccine. So he could have added that. That would have been my one note to the DIY but it’s very, very good.

And just in case you redo it for Halloween. Okay. On the other side of the Sean Freud scale, we can all admit this is ridiculous. It’s absurd that our country has devolved to a place where we have a culture war picking sides on the Super Bowl based on a music singer and a guy that just did an ad for vaccines, but we are in this place. And so for people who don’t know, one of my nemeses is a guy named Clay Travis.

He went to college with me. He is a right wing sports talk radio head. That’s a thing now. He has a sports talk radio show that is combined with mega Outrage of the day talking points. I wrote a very lovely profile from a while back if you wanna find it.

It was one of my most enjoyable things to write, and here was Clay Travis on Fox over the weekend with Howard Kurz discussing who he was rooting for.

You waited on the tail of mania, few weeks ago when you said she was partially responsible for the Kansas City Chiefs losing a couple of games. Do you stand by that comment?

I hope that she’s the Yoko ono of the Kansas City Chiefs and she destroys their dynasty and puts them down in flames. That’s why I am proudly supporting the San Francisco forty niners America’s team on Sunday against Kansas City Patrick Mahomes Taylor Swift, and track Kelly. You got you got niners.

Oh, alright.

Sports expert Clay Travis with Howard Kurz, whatever happened to to whatever shred of integrity was left. Hosting him. Tough break. Clay also put a big bet on the forty niner. So, that is a shame.

On the other hand, we saw Joe Biden the team a little bit kind of responsive there after the Super Bowl win Biden with the What are the eyes?

The dark brand?

The dark brand and eyes. Thank you. The dark brand and eyes saying it was all part of the plan. Bill, were you involved? In the plan to to help the Chiefs win.

Yeah.

I I can’t talk about it that time.

Oh, okay. It’s a secret meeting. With Bill Burns there or Loyd Austin?

Yeah. I mean, I I don’t I get I don’t wanna get too much into into Bill and Lloyd’s private, you know, meetings over the last week.

It’s pretty good though. It’s pretty enjoyable. I think that bringing some levity to this. Yeah. There’s a lot of very seriousness about the way that the right and the right kind of media echo chamber has just evolved from a place of kind of light conspiracy and into just total madness and insanity, and I think that there are some very negative downstream effects from that.

But if you’re always are taking it seriously, you know, and fact checking them. I think that there’s a limit to how much that works as compared to just mocking. I think that there’s a time for mocking. Inviden is not you that’s not usually his cup of tea. You know, he was, sold a nation reformer, but a little just a little hint of mocking.

That’s useful. Right, maybe?

Yeah. I think Biden has to do apparently, he’s joined TikTok. He has to do something to make people laugh. He needs to enliven his coalition. He needs to energize people.

They’re really down and really worried. And so I hope the TikTok videos are a success. And I like the dark Brandon memes. From Biden Harris HQ or whatever they do on Twitter. It’s they actually do funny stuff.

And it doesn’t matter that Joe Biden does no idea that it’s going on. It’s it’s good for people.

It’s enough. Right? You know,

that are like creating shareable content. And that’s a good thing.

The dark brand of name isn’t Upgrade.

I agree, but getting back to your close friend, Clay Travis, there to what’s with the forty nine years being America’s team? It does show something not to get too serious about the way the conspiracy theorizing leads them. They could just say we hate to chase because they tell us what to call this stuff. And Pfizer and and therefore, I’m moving for the forty nine. But you can’t say that anyway.

It can’t just be lesser of two evils, right, because you’re in a insane conspiratorial world of Sate, good and evil, Satan, and god, whatever. How long ago was it that the forty niners had a quarterback who, you know, destroyed America’s patriotism forever by taking a knee out of football fields.

Yes. And, you know, San Francisco with the gays, sodomites are in San Francisco. There’s that to consider Nancy Pelosi there. Wasn’t a natural fit for America’s team. I don’t think, but you can’t go to a place of logic here.

Right.

It was a win for me. I it brought AB some joy. Gambling is legal here in the free state of Louisiana. So I might have put a little cash on the chief. So think things are good.

I’m happy about it. There was a lightly concerning moment during the game for me, which was the RFP Junior app. Did you get to see

it? Yeah.

It was pretty good. I thought I received several texts about it being good. Now there have been some fallout. Oh, r f k’s family members did not like it. And he’s like apologizing to them on Twitter saying it was my practiced it.

I had nothing to do with it. Meanwhile, the ad is the pinned tweet on his feed. So, he’s kinda struggling to manage the social media side of this, but just the content of the ad for people that are not, you know, kind of in the Twitter politics bubble. He’s not a natural fit for this role of I’m a fresh alternative to these two old guys, but he might be enough of a fit to create problems. What what was your guy’s reaction to it?

Who knows? I mean, who knows really make this really make a difference, but it was effective in its way. It is funny. He’s what is our FK junior? Sixty nine or seventy?

I think. Seventy. And that ad was running in nineteen sixty or the true the virtual version of the ad that they pretty much. So in nineteen sixty when JFK was running, and it’s sort of a famous ad if you’re into that kind of, you know, political consultant and ad makers, you know, sort of stuff. And JFK gave us forty three.

I don’t know. It makes me wonder Yeah. Jamie, nice. So now’s RfK is the seventy year old young insurgent against the seventy seven year old and eighty one year old. What is going on?

Yeah. That is concerning. I don’t know. AB.

I just find the whole thing so frustrating. It was a big price tag, you know, he has deep pockets with good funding coming. You know, we have our theories as to why. That they’re mostly coming from the right and people believe he’s gonna take votes from Biden. He’s only on one ballot, I believe, Utah.

And the DNC’s, you know, trying to sue him for collusion with his super pack.

Right.

I think he lied in that tweet to his family saying that he knows nothing about the ads, why it’s pin tweet. He’s a bad guy. I mean, I think he’s very shrewd as is Trump to always speak to the politically uninformed. Because those are the people that see that out and think that’s so cool. He’s a Kennedy and seeing the jingle and think he, you know, he looks younger than seventy, and he’s, like, into his biceps and whatever?

His push ups, if we can just, the shirtless push ups were not that impressive.

I know. But He could

have gone a little lower. I think.

I see why people like his novel. This is a cool idea. They believe that a third party can win because they don’t actually focus on the details of this. And so I could get really worried, but until he’s really has good ballot access, I’m gonna try not to. But he’s he’s a bad guy.

It’s just all around. He’s a conspiracy theorists. It really takes a lot to have your whole family turn against you publicly, Kennedy’s are not Kennedy’s. I do think it was a good ad, and I see why it can be effective but I’m gonna not flip out at this point.

And him and Paul ghosts are in good company there. The ballot access is is obviously gonna be a thing to really monitor this year. I flipped on this. It’s just in the interest of candor. Some people might have maybe been listening to me six months ago where I was saying, RFK junior being in was maybe good for Biden.

You know, because of the trump y nature of his positions on vaccines, and maybe some of the horseshoe type, you know, Joe rogan Bros, who who would vote for Trump and head to head would vote for RfK in a three way. And I think that’s true. There’s gonna be some of those types. But, you know, the more you look at the numbers, particularly with black voters. I mean, if RFP could cut into Biden’s margins, even by ten percent, with black men, you know, and draw off ten, fifteen, get up in the teens, that becomes a real, real problem.

And so I’ve basically flipped on my political assessment of this. I went to a dark place last night. Wanna do a little just political parlor games after watching the ad. I don’t know why this thought popped into my head, but it did. And I thought If we are on the bad earth three, and it came down to Rfk Junior versus Trump, would I find myself supporting Rfk junior?

And I came down on, I guess, I I guess I would have to. And I was I found myself morbidly curious where you guys would land on that question.

Yeah. I haven’t gone quite to that dark place yet. So as I was also

not sure.

With you for at least a a minute. I guess I’d be with you in this sense. I think an RfK junior presence, I even saying that kind of it’s not a happy place, but anyway, an RFP junior presidency would be more like a Trump first term than a second term. Right? You know, he wouldn’t have a cadre of committed authoritarians and so forth.

America firsters with him. He on foreign policy, I don’t think he actually he’s where Trump is for whatever that’s where. I don’t know what used on anything worth, but I’d be for whatever that’s worth so that it wouldn’t be right away destroying NATO. So I yes. I agree with you.

Maybe just staring us down. She’s like, I will not it out.

AB doesn’t even wanna go there. I’m I’m watching AB here. AB is sort of we started off at the Happy’s discussion about number eighty seven and the Chiefs, and now why are we doing this Tim? You know?

I can’t believe you’re coming back to me. I just You refused

to accept. I’m putting you on the spot right now. R f k junior or Trump, the turn gun is to your head, AB.

Definitely RfK junior. I agree with, I I agree with this that he would sort of bumble through the first couple of years and not be as dangerous, but I thought you were throwing this to Bill so he could weigh in. I just told you guys, I’m non dealing with RfK junior until he’s on more ballots. Like, there You know what I mean? There there’s there’s another third party effort that’s on fourteen ballots.

So I’m not gonna lose sleep over him yet because I have a lot to lose sleep over. From last week. So I thought you were gonna move on.

I was not moving on. I’m putting you on the spot.

Yeah. I definitely take them over time.

I want the clip for future usage of everyone on this podcast, affirmatively supporting RFP junior who once tweeted a Bulwark article. I forget what it was. You never know. You know, strange bedfellows. As you say, okay.

There was one other suitable thing. I I have to get on to Mike Gallagher, but before I do so, I just several people on the right, and I just can’t take this. Anymore were tweeting about how offended they were about the Black National Anthem. My friend, Matt Gates, said that he would not watch the Super Bowl because of this. Megan Kelly, sent to mean tweet about it, referring to his lift every voice and sing.

It is the most beautiful song. It is positive. It is uplifting. We sing lots of songs before the games. There’s no rules about any of this.

It’s like the fact that this is a way for them to get angry engagement takes me to a really sad place and pisses me off. And so I wanna move on to Mike Gallagher, but before we moved off the prayed of Super Bowl articles. I had to just wag my finger at Matt Gates and Megan and said, very bad on you. Mike Gallagher. Stepping aside.

Thirty nine years old. How old is he?

Thirty nine.

He should be running for president, probably. In the same world, be Gallagher or Haley primary, and they would be running for president against, you know, Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer. And we have this very vibrant two sided debate, but That’s not the world we’re in. Instead, Mike Gallagher is retiring, that’s not normal to retire from Congress at thirty nine when you have been given the keys to a committee in the China oversight committee that he wanted to run that he asked for. It was an issue that he’s passionate about.

That seemed to run fairly competently. I mean, I had some occasionally. There were there were some absurdities that would pop up in the China committee and you know, Mike Gallagher, I have my issues with, but, like, you know, it wasn’t like the Jim Comer committee. You know, there there were at least some normal people that were testifying. He responded to media requests.

There was some basic governance that was happening there. And despite having all that, He wants to I don’t know. What, like, be on the board of Raytheon or something? A b, where are you on this?

I don’t know if he decided. He made this decision to leave before he voted against that would became one of the three to vote against the majorca impeachment last week. Which he knew he was gonna take heat for, and he was threatened afterwards and attacked from the wacky right in Wisconsin, but what you say is true he was on a rocket to the moon in a former party. Right? He was the dream Republican.

He has four million dollars in his campaign coffers more than any other house member. He was an armed services intelligence. He’s a combat veteran. He’s a handsome, thirty nine year old, led the China Committee. This was a guy that was going to be the best Republicans could hope for for president one day in a party that no longer exists.

I mean, know he did not wanna leave after four terms. And again, I don’t know if he just made his decision or made it You know, I think a lot of members who are announcing now have probably made their decision a while ago. This Congress has really shown them what it’s gonna be like going forward, and a lot of them are really miserable about it. And that’s why you see like Kathy Mc Morris Rogers leaving a good chairmanship Mike Gallagher leaving. So it’s not that he responded to an immediate threat, but it is illustrative of what’s happening to the party.

And it’s just tragic. I mean, that’s exactly the kind whether you agree with him or not. It’s exactly the kind of person that we want as our public servant. It’s so scary to think of what this is going to do in terms of the makeup of the House Republican Conference going forward. And then what the makeup of the House Republican Conference does to the House as a whole.

Right? You can’t just have a sane conference. You have to have sane elements in both conferences and when you think out to next year and going forward, who is going to be running the house on the republican side or even in the minority on the republican side, it’s It’s it’s really quite frightening and depressing.

Bill, you’ve been on this for a while. There’s a supply and demand thing that is happening at the candidate level and at the voter level. Right, as far as who is opting in and who voters want. So we have this trio of opt outs. You mentioned McMorris Rogers.

It’s also worth mentioning Patrick McHenry in Mike Gallagher. None of these people are profiles encouraged. Like, I’m not praising any of them. All of them were accommodationists is like the nicest thing that you could say about them during the Trump’s decade that we’ve been living through, but reasonably rational people that if you were of the view that, like, this goes away, right, that at some time the Trump era goes away and he disappears or we hamburger from heaven and then things move back to normal. These would be the kinds of people that if you’re of that view that you would wanna have around because they would stabilize things.

So they’re leaving. And, Bill, I you’ve always talked about how the people that would be opting in, how do people that call you for your, like, why is Sage Invite? You know, former military guys, conservative, you know, people that might wanna go home to where they grew up and run for Congress. They don’t wanna have to run-in the primary right now in the Republican party. So, like, on both sides of this, like, there’s just a vacuum that’s being created for the most crazy most sociopathic, most narcissistic people imaginable, and that is just a downstream effect of Trump that I think that’ll hasn’t really sunk him in with a lot of folks.

Yeah. Totally. And I I mean, I just two points, AB’s praise of Gallagher is true in the sense that he’s very impressive. I’ve known him for fifteen years, and he came to the staffer. I helped him some in twenty sixteen when the Republican, representative from his district in Wisconsin suddenly retired.

And Mike, should I should he run or not? He says, yeah, take a shot. And thought at that point, Trump would lose in twenty sixteen and there’d be Mike Gallagher on Congress. That would be great. He’s not just been not a profile in coverage.

He’s been conspicuous non profile and coverage. I mean, he was very close to Liz Cheney. He and Liz Cheney did a million things together between about twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Sort hoping to be the, you know, some major voices in a non Trump Republican party. Number third happened, Trump lost, Trump denied losing.

January six happened. Liz Jamie broke fully and fundamentally. Mike Gallagher had one little video on January sixth itself. From the capitol.

Where he looks panicked? He looks like very panicked kind of.

And then votes against impeachment the next week and is horrible for the next two or three years. There’s nothing courageous. Doesn’t defend the January sixth committee. Doesn’t defend this Janey. I mean, really, given that he’s actually intelligent and impressive in so many ways, his non courage was particularly telling, I think, even more than some of the others.

The other point I’d just make is analytically, though, What does it say that Mc Morris Rogers and McHenry and Gallagher think what they think? They’re not foolish. Trump could lose, obviously, but they think the party is going to be trumpest for at least the next several years. Right? Otherwise, they’d hang on to this one election.

Trump could lose, obviously, and then they think maybe there’s hope, but they know that the future of the party is war with Mike John are my gates than with, people like them.

Matt Gates. Watch out.

Yeah. Whatever’s happening. Yeah.

The people are gonna be coming for you and saying that you’ve lost a step I

You’re gonna be removed. You know, I’m not running I’m not ready for president.

You’re handling a daily newsletter.

Only with Andrew Edgar doing, you’re doing the bulk of it. So Oh, yeah.

And, Bill, I I think it’s just it’s worth putting a finer point on one element of the Gallagher thing, which is I am just so fucking sick and tired of people deciding to do the right thing at the very last page of the book, you know, and then deciding to retire. Right? And we we’ve seen this over and over again. We saw it in twenty team, every candidate that ran except for Joe. I didn’t criticize Trump until their concession speech, basically.

Right? Until the campaign was over. And then they finally started to say what they really believed. We’re seeing this even now with Haley. Alright.

Like, where she’s really starting to go at them after it’s all, like, it’s after functionally over. Right? Like, maybe she has a chance. I don’t I don’t wanna get you sad over their belt, but it’s functionally over and now she’s finally attacking him. And you’re seeing this in Congress a lot where, like, people decide to do the right thing.

Right as they’re about to resign, and it’s like, if my Gallagher knew what was right on the my orcas vote. And he’s able to do it because he knew he was going to the door. He also knew it was right on the January system. Committee and on impeachment and on supporting Liz. And to me, it’s almost like more offensive to, like, do that.

I mean, I guess it’s good that he kept my orcas from getting impeached but I don’t know. Part of me is almost like you might as well just impeach my arcus and gone out like you served, Mike, but I don’t know, a b. Is that too cynical?

So this is the problem is that he got on camera right and did some live stream on January six. Saying that the president was the only person that could call this off and

Yeah.

This is third world shit or whatever he said at the time. Right? So

Yeah.

Days later, who doesn’t vote to impeach him, because people get to people like Mike Gallagher, he’s so promising He’s their best specimen. And they say, we need people like you. Remember this refrain? We need normal people. And so if it’s not you, it’ll be someone crazy.

And so you are our best hope, and so you must not upset Maga, and you must just cower, and then he does. And no, actually, making your last stand on the impeachment of Alexander. Myorcas is really not brave at all and has nothing to do with shit. In terms of what we’re facing, right, with the threat of Trump. So it’s like a joke.

But I was describing him as the kind of person just a few years ago, we would have all really hoped, you know, we would have in the leadership of the Congress or as president. And so Sure. Powerds get to run again, half powered, you know, or somewhere in the middle where they’re maligned, and then they’re threatened with primaries. And then if you’re Liz, to leave. This is the spectrum.

Romney has to leave. And we just thank him for writing a book an entire year in advance where he shot on his Republican colleagues to the Senate and still walk the halls with him. That to me is a definition of bravery in this environment that we’re in.

That concept that you mentioned about how people feel like I need to be there because someone else crazy will come in. I wrote about this a ton for the book. I call it the junior messiah fallacy. Right? Like, if I’m not here, then I’ll be replaced by a crazy white nationalist or conspiracists.

And, right, my problem with that theory was always like, does that not say something about the spot that you’re in? Right? If your replacement is gonna be so fucking insane. Like, maybe shouldn’t that you’d be reflecting on, you know, the situation you put yourself in. Again, It was maybe logical if you are of the view that Trump goes away.

But then to follow that logic to its end, you had to help him go away. And they they never did that. So anyway. Alright. Joe Biden, is everybody ready?

Is everybody ready to do this? Bill Crystal began his newsletter this morning. And, you know, there are a lot of ways to go into it. You know, he could have opened his newsletter with a little meditation on Donald Trump’s tweet about how twenty twenty four is our final battle. And with you at my side, we’ll demolish the deep state.

He could have gone into his first newsletter and talked about how Donald Trump made fun of Nikki Haley’s husband for serving in the horn of Africa. Tons of possible things. You know, Harvard Real football rivalry could have written about anything. The world is your oyster. Instead, Bill Crystal made a a kind of half hearted, three quarters hearted arguments that that Joe Biden might consider stepping aside.

So let’s do it I think we have a family disagreement on this one, but let’s hear you make the case, Bill.

I thought it was reasonably fully hearted. I mean, I don’t have

fully hearted. I don’t know. It felt a little three quarters hearted.

Don’t have as big a heart as you do, Tim. So for me, you know, for your point of view, it was mildly a little bit too qualified. But believe me, I’m outraged with all those other things. I’ll write about them a million times. I hope over the hope.

I mean, I’d expect over the next eight, nine months than Michael Hayley thinks it’s at least, particularly appalling. And there, I do think that could hurt Trump itself. Just take a second on that. Are there no veterans in the country who just find it appalling that Trump makes fun of the fact that Nikki Haley’s husband is deployed in Africa? Because if he’s doing nothing, he’s having a good time.

He’s just avoiding being with his wife or something like that? And does that move some veterans to say he just can’t be president again. Again, everyone always hopes these things have a little bit of effect. It’s cumulative. But you know what?

To defeat Trump, people have to mostly they have to want to defeat Trump. I take that point, but they have to be okay with the alternative. And the polling is just not getting better for Joe Biden, and Americans think he’s too old, and he looks somewhat frail. And it was not good. I don’t care how much about what special counsel wrote, but his own performance in those fourteen minutes Thursday night was bad in my opinion.

And it’s unlikely to get better. And why are we being fatalistic about this? He likes being president. Well, fine. Everyone does, and if they could get to that status, and and he’s done a good job as president, which he really does deserve credit for.

But we could do better. And I’m very convinced that a younger candidate would do better against Trump. And I’m pretty convinced, and this is why the three quarters harder comes in, but I think it’s just trying to be realistic. I don’t wanna be Panklostian about it, that I think the process could still produce without too much messiness and too much damage, a much better candidate. So I think it’s important to be Trump.

I don’t think Biden at this point is the best bet to be Trump. I think Biden should do the right thing for the country and step aside.

How would that work? How would the process work?

So Biden just steps aside, then we have a whole bunch of primaries. You would have writing candidates where too late to get on the ballot. You can still get on the ballots over the last few states. It probably would become a kind of, slightly chaotic you know, a lot of people would run or or people would write them in. If even if they said they weren’t running, they’d be draft witmer or draft Shapiro or draft Newsom.

Of the wood run, actually, especially especially if talking to this case about Biden stepping aside, you know, certainly vice president Harris would run. Probably, no one might get a majority, might have a broker convention. I did point out that We had Voca conventions in nineteen thirty two and eighteen sixty also in Chicago where the democratic convention is, and that produced Roosevelt and Lincoln. So Maybe broker credentials aren’t always so bad. I got an email right away at, like, nine thirty one.

The newsletter goes out at nine thirty, I think, from someone What about the night? There’s another convention in Chicago. You’re not mentioning nineteen sixty eight. That wasn’t such a good Democratic convention, which is a point I had thought of actually. I had actually a couple sentences in about it.

Andrew and I discussed it in front of being, like, too complicated now. But I was this is an interesting case study. That was a total mess. Right? LJ gets out.

Robert Kennedy tragically gets assassinated, McCarthy, Humphrey, terrible convention. I still think Cuba Homefood was actually a better candidate, and probably ran better against xiom was one, then l b j as the incumbent would have. Now Biden’s not l b j. There’s no vietnam war. I don’t mean to, you know, that one, overdue the analogy or anything.

But I just think an incumbent it’s getting harder and harder to say that the judgment of Biden hasn’t settled in or isn’t settling in Doug Salls, Nick, Democratic veteran democratic strategist had a very good piece in the times yesterday, which really made I mean, it’s advice to Biden, but it’s really not encouraging about just hard headed look at what Biden’s numbers already is the incumbent. It’s gonna be somewhat about him. It can’t totally be about Trump. Carvel and axelrod were quoted in the times article pretty tough comments for people who have to really work in or or associate with. Democratic confidence in a way that I don’t quite have to, you know, honestly.

So I feel like, you know what, analytically, if I’m with Sostic and Carville and Exelrod, I’m okay. If people don’t like that I urged him to step aside. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe he’s maybe he’s right, that he’s the best alternative. That’s what he says.

The one who could beat Trump. Fine. Then he’ll eject the argument, but I feel I feel bad not making the arguments. So I figured why not start with that? And then we can get to beating up Donald Trump, you know?

Okay. Well, I have a half heart, a three quarters hearted disagreement that I’ll get to, but I’m deeply curious where a b stands because a b was really with you last year, right, and arguing that there should be a primary. Are you still with Bill or are you are you digging into your heels? For president Biden at this point?

So I started writing about this in July of twenty twenty two because the polling is two years old on the fact that Biden’s age has disqualified him amongst a majority of the electorate, including from his own party. That’s only gotten worse. And he dug in anyway, So I wrote that from July to the end of twenty twenty two. I wrote it throughout twenty twenty three, and I we were billing our expecting he would go on holidays at the end of twenty twenty two after a great midterm come out, say he wasn’t going to, but he waited till April. And when he was waiting, I thought he was gonna say no.

I thought this is his way. He’s dithering. It’s Biden’s way, but he knows. The man knows how old he is. He’s been humbled by life so many times.

And by the twists of fate, he certainly is not gonna do this. And I’m to this day completely stunned that he decided to run again I have different theories about why and who pushed him in this type of thing that I’ll leave aside. I’m not certain about the calendar and brokered conventions. And like ways that, you know, ways that this would go, what I would like to think, because now as of this morning, especially I’m very pro deep state, you know, same. I would like to think that some cabal, if he stepped aside today, could sort of just push some kind of juggernaut you know, where it’s, like, down to Harris and one other person.

Right? And they have, like, that it’s not thirteen people, including Elizabeth Warren, like, not a silly situation.

We put in the house of cards music under this section?

Do you know what I’m saying? I I just think that that would be my hope my fantasy. I don’t know if it’s possible, but I do think at this point, it’s all but clear. It should be to Biden that the people who decide these elections are not partisans, and they’re not politically informed. And they are in a handful of swing states, and there are only a few thousand of them.

And they are just looking at Joe Biden and saying, this is elder abuse, and the man needs to go home. And so we have to stop denying that. Again, I don’t know about the logistics, but I’m still with Bill on the fact that it’s way to grave a risk for us to sit here on election night and say, oh, let Joe Biden, he shouldn’t have done that to us. I mean, it’s, at some point, he and his wife made the wrong call. And I wanna circle back to one thing.

His accomplishments have nothing to do with this. In every column that I wrote about this, and everyone can go back to them, I talk about his accomplishments, which are extraordinary, an unprecedented legislative record in the Congress in a time when there’s no margin, no math, and a completely gridlock polarized political environment, but

no one knows about these accomplishments.

And it’s too late for them to, quote, unquote, learn about them through cabinet secretaries traveling the country and blue ribbon cuttings and some TikTok videos. So this is the denial in the in the democratic party. Oh, we haven’t started spending the money. Oh, abortion. Oh, this.

Oh, that. You know what? That’s great. It’s not working so far. When people don’t pay attention to the stuff, and have written it off completely and think it’s not only impossible for him to win the election and carry on that he can’t serve as a con term and then he needs to go maybe to a hospital bed.

Okay. Okay.

This is the this is the problem. This is the problem. Is it it’s not what we think of him. You know, there’s been plenty of polling that shows that his accomplishments have not broken through with the voters they need to have broken through with. And that’s really disappointing, but that’s the reality.

Well, you pre butted a big part of my little speech I was planning about is accomplished So we’ll save we’ll save the Biden accomplishment speech for another podcast. My other objection is just practical. The reality is if it’s not him, it’s Harris.

I don’t agree.

That’s just I don’t agree. Those are the options on the table. At this point, in February twelve

Totally not. If he got out yet, if he got out tomorrow, they would be right in Canada. Do you think others wouldn’t run? Do you think it would be Harris because she would beat everyone else or because that won’t be too intimidated to write against

think that a lot of people would be too intimidated to run against her, and I think it’d be very, very challenging to defeat the first Bulwark woman vice president with a candidate that isn’t of a white man for sure that does not fill those democratic bills. And and just as a private lender, Bill, I remember think one time when you’re sitting in this podcast, we’re having Carville. Carville gave a very, I think, poignant point about the democratic primary. Which is like the people that win the Bulwark church win every time. He’s like if you go back through history and the democratic primaries, it’s like whoever does the best with older black voters, commend the Bulwark church.

Well, that is the core of the Democratic base. You would add on to that, I think, suburban women. So you have to come up with a candidate in this fantasy world. I love AB’s deep state plan that we’re gonna, like, put a new, you know, person forward, but, like, you have to go with a candidate that can beat a sitting black woman vice president in with black voters and with suburban women. And you’re gonna have to do it, like, maybe at a on a convention floor.

Boy, I find that very, very hard to imagine.

You might be right. Obviously. Yeah. Look, I picked only two points. A, you know, the fact that Donald Harris is a black woman.

Doesn’t mean that all blacks or all women will vote for her. Obviously, they didn’t in twenty twenty. Of course. B in I don’t even agree with her. Be on the a multi candidate race including Elizabeth Warren, that doesn’t terrify me.

I believe we had that in twenty twenty. And who won the presidency? Joe Biden, he won it in part because he won the primary against a lot of other people. And so, c, I’ll make this point. I think she probably vice president harris probably wouldn’t win the primary.

If she did, she would be stronger as a result. And I’ve now come to the view, and I just may sound crazy to people that a vice president Harris who defeats Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Usom and to which we have other people in a set of primaries, writing votes, who gets the nomination, in a kind of open convention, picks and vice president who would balance the ticket sort of. I’m not sure. That’s not a stronger ticket. Than Biden Harris.

I mean, I’m not so terrified of I’m actually less terrified of Kamala Harris at this point than worried about Biden trying to make the case to the American public that Joe Biden should be president for five more years, and that he should do so with the vice president Harris who has had no prove herself really as vice president. Maybe she’s there’s some chances. Maybe that’s her fault. Maybe it’s the Biden White House fault. If she actually won a primary, it’d be like George j Shelby Bush, in eighty seven, eighty eight, the wimp, he’s, you know, the mush.

He’s a very bad. He’s he’s a he’s a lame vice president. He’s ever been a great candidate. But, you know, at once he beat people, was a stronger candidate for the in the general election. So that’s my wishful thinking.

Well, here is where we kind of agree. I’m actually not so scared of Kamala, but I’m just not think that she obvious has obvious weaknesses that are some of which that she’s brought upon herself some of which that are totally not her fault about the nature of the swing voter and the swing electorate and how they might feel about the first black woman president, but I’m not that scared of her. It comes down to AB as being very dismissive of the well, the Democrats’ response to this is, well, abortion, well, our accomplishments, well, we haven’t spent any money. Well, people haven’t really sunk in that what the reality Trump too would look like. Isn’t that all true?

Isn’t that all true though? That in twenty twenty two, that system worked? You know, that range of issues worked. And then in twenty twenty four, you know, the Biden White House is gonna have a advertising juggernaut is gonna be able to highlight the weaknesses?

And people like me will all be trying to help make those issues Bulwark, and they should work. I mean, I I don’t get me wrong. I’m providing against Trump. A hundred percent. But I’m I don’t think it’s quite like twenty twenty two for various obvious reasons.

We could get into mostly that Biden fold to talk the twenty twenty. It was a vindication of Biden. You know who actually won Big in twenty twenty two? Greschen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, a lot of people who were the generation younger than Joe Biden. So I’m kind of super minded.

Why not let them ride in twenty twenty four? I feel like that would be stronger, you know, and the the such anti incumbency, there’s my lots is unfair about it. But again, I I think Joe Biden was not on the ballot in twenty twenty two. Final went about twenty twenty two, just incidentally. It was a very good offer for the Democrats by the standard of off year elections.

The public has won the Nashville popular vote in twenty twenty two by about one percent. It’s not as if if we replicate twenty twenty two, trump will win the presidency.

Yeah. Well, but some of that but the democrats did well on the States in the electoral complex.

They did. Yeah. Exactly.

Whitmer’s over performed in California and New York.

I couldn’t agree more. Whitmer Japura warnock, they were great.

Alright, Bill. Pretty convincing. A b. I’ll give you the last word.

It’s a question of what they’re gonna break through on. In a non midterm year and a presidential year when those daughters I talked about who will be turning out who can decide these elections and are not you know, informed about who Carrie Lake is as an election denier. Bill’s right. More Republicans turned out in twenty twenty two than Democrats. Most a lot of them just voted for Democrats in the right places and spared us Secret Podcast states and governors in key states

Right.

Who were election deniers. Lot of those motivated young people who came out on abortion in the right places really saved the day, but we can’t count on strategic turnout in the right places stopping the fact that Trump has new converts. And I know this is dark and you guys don’t like to hear it, but, like, a lot of people are perfectly fine with Donald Trump. The average voter doesn’t know about the insurrection act, doesn’t know what leptocracy Will Saletan, doesn’t understand what guardrails will now be gone. And so they do look back and think it was fine.

We see that in polling, guys. They’re I think they’re really jaw with, like, the first trump term, and it’s the Democrats are really in denial about that. They just are. They think Trump is so radioactive with the general electric. He’s not.

You know what’s great about this podcast, Tim, is that Tim Brake brings on AB to moderate my sanity, you know. She’s married. She is such a wonderful, genuinely wonderful thoughtful traditional person, but I’m glad the AV that you’re, like, making to be a bit more happy than I

Yeah. Lapping you. Lapping, though, Crystal. Go harder. Guys, we didn’t promise you happy talking podcast.

I’ve we honestly tell you what you really think. I will say this. And this is important. I’ve seen I’ve seen the Reddit memes about the Bulwark, you know, where they’ve changed the arcs on the podcast to provide in his old podcast. And, I’ve seen it, and I hear the feedback, but I just have to say.

This is the thing. When I said at the top, it’s a family argument. Like, what is happening here is everybody agrees on one thing. The threat is so great. The threat is so great.

And so if there are afraid nerves among people on the same side, it’s because we’re trying to work through what the best answer is to deal with such a great threat. And that’s gonna be something that we’re gonna be doing all year. And, hope you’ll be doing it with us. Bill Chris will be back next Monday. ABy Scott, it’ll be back a lot.

I don’t know. After that last performance, though, we might need a week or two break. We might bring AB back in March. We’ll see. You can get her on the dark side with JBL.

Before we let you go, I wanted to talk to you briefly about what is to come in this space. For five years, Charlie did an amazing job providing this outlet for people who are either thrust out of their political tribe or trying to understand how the right lost its mind. My goal is to continue in that spirit. I recognize I don’t have his dulcet voice and talk radio cadence, but I’m gonna do my best. I’ll be bringing along the other friendly voice in the Bulwark podcast cinematic universe you’ve come to know and love.

I’m gonna make my North Star meeting his standard for quality and Ron DeSantis and maintaining a willingness to always say the things I believe are true. Even if not, everybody wants to hear it, think you might have just heard some of that. And to that end, this podcast is also gonna evolve a bit. I wanna widen the aperture, include a broader range of voices, ideologically, demographically, bring in some more news maker interviews with titians, take a few detours from the endless parade of Trump Horables with subject matter experts. I wanna argue a little more.

My memeie would want that. Are you ing something that keeps me sane and sharp? So we’re gonna be looking for opportunities to have people on to spar with, maybe even Carrie Lake will be on this podcast. Who knows? And speak of arguing with Carrie.

I wanna also make sure this is fun and not a slog. So we might mix in some goofier stuff from time to time. But it will not be Broadway trivia. Sorry, Charlie. That broadening means that we’re gonna be rejiggering the line up a little bit.

As you heard, we’ll be having Bill Crystal on most Mondays. As for the beloved Trump trials and Will Saletan Mondays, those gents will be by the pod as the news demands. A little bit more sporadically. You can catch Will with Mona on just between us from time to time as well. With all that said, here’s the thing that’s most important I’m absolutely convicted that this election is existential, that everything is on the line.

It’s our unfortunate reality. We’re gonna be taking it head on. Sometimes that will mean tough love for those of us who share the same goal of protecting liberal democracy from the trumpian threat Sometimes it will be pure, Trump, shot in Florida right into your veins. So it’s time for all of us together to sharpen the knives, steal ourselves for the shit storm of lunacy ahead. I hope you do it with me, and I look forward to doing it all over again.

We’ll see you tomorrow. The Secret Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Breck.