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Arizona: Psychologically Unfun (with Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer)

October 22, 2022
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Transcript

Arizona is ground-zero for the Big Lie about the 2020 election. The Republican nominees for Governor and Secretary of State, Kari Lake and Mark Finchem, are avowed election deniers, and Democrats may or may not rise to the occasion to beat them. But our guest HAS risen to the occasion: Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer joins Sarah to listen to Ari…

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This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors and omissions. Ironically, the transcription service has particular problems with the word “bulwark,” so you may see it mangled as “Bullard,” “Boulart,” or even “bull word.” Enjoy!
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:10

    Hello. Everyone, and welcome to the Focus Group Podcast. I’m Sarah Longwell, Publisher of The Bulwark. And this week, we are talking about the Arizona Governors race. Now if there is any race in the country this year that keeps me up at night, it is this one.
  • Speaker 1
    0:00:27

    Now Joe Biden won Arizona by ten thousand votes in twenty twenty, which means two things. This governor’s race is a toss-up, and whoever wins is likely to preside over a post presidential election in twenty twenty four. Now if you’re a regular listener of this podcast, you probably know by now, Cary Lake, the Republican nominee for governor, has said she wouldn’t have certified the twenty twenty election. Putting the certification of the next presidential election in her hands could get dicey fast. She’s not talked about the twenty twenty election as much since winning her primary, but she still won’t say she’d accept her own defeat.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:04

    Her opponent, Democratic secretary of state, Katie Hobbs, refuses to debate her. Democrats are worried this race is slipping away. Lake leads by less than a point in the latest five thirty eight average. There’s also a very important secretary of state race. Not only does the secretary of state oversee and certify elections, but they are first in the line of succession for the governorship because Arizona doesn’t have a lieutenant governor.
  • Speaker 1
    0:01:31

    The Republican nominee for secretary of state Mark Finchum is just as if not more crazy than Kerry Lake. But what do our swing voters think of these extreme candidates? And again, we are talking to people who voted for Trump in twenty sixteen and then refused to vote for him in twenty twenty. We have a really awesome guess for today. He’s a Republican who’s been on the front lines of combating all the falsehoods about the twenty twenty election, and he’s the county election official for about sixty percent of Arizona.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:02

    Mericopa County Recorder Steven Richter. Steven, huge thanks for taking the time. I assume you are busy right now running an election. So thank you so much for being here.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:12

    Oh, thanks for having me. Yeah. Anything for you, but yes, it is busy time right now.
  • Speaker 1
    0:02:17

    So listen, right now, there’s a lot of reports coming out from Georgia about, like, record turnout in the state. You guys also have early voting that has started out there in Arizona. What his turnout look like for you guys so far?
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:31

    So far, it’s lagging a little bit behind where we would ordinarily be. And it might be because we have extraordinarily long Ballets this season. Many ballots in Maricopa County have over seventy five contests on them. We have ten statewide initiatives. We have a lot of judicial retention elections.
  • Speaker 2
    0:02:52

    We have bonds. We have measures. And then, of course, we have hotly contested races, but I think people have more information typically on the politicians’ races.
  • Speaker 1
    0:03:05

    Interesting. So you said back in August that your job can be psychologically unfunded. So just give our audience just to, like, level set. Our quick rundown of what your job is, the recorder’s job entails, and, like, what it’s been like for you as a Republican pushing back against election denialism there in your state?
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:26

    Yeah, the recorder’s office is an office of about a hundred and fifty full time employees and we have three main statutory functions. We record over a million documents a year. Most of it relates to real estate, but this is anything that you would want in the public record in Maricopa County. The second is voter registration. We are the registrar voters, and we may the voter registration database.
  • Speaker 2
    0:03:49

    We have about two point four million registered voters in Maricopa County. They divide roughly a third a third a third between Republicans, Democrats, and independents. And we are the second largest voting jurisdiction in the United States behind only Los Angeles County And as Sarah mentioned, we make up about sixty, sixty one percent of the voting population of Arizona. The third component is election administration. And that’s obviously been a hot topic and no place has had more attention than Maricopa County over the last year and a half in part because we were such a close state in the twenty twenty presidential contest, in part because we’re an evolving state politically.
  • Speaker 2
    0:04:33

    And in part, because we had members of the political body here who continued to endulged the falsehood that the election was somehow compromised or stolen form former president Trump and we even engaged in a months long multimillion dollar endeavor led by conspiracy theorist amateurs that kept us Front Me Center in the conversation regarding the Stalin election theory.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:02

    I gotta ask you, like, did the cyber ninjas Like, did they look like ninjas?
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:07

    No. They looked like ordinary guys, which was perhaps all part of their clever ruse. But you know, that they caused some real trouble, and it had real world ramifications. Some of the things that they would alleged would immediately translate into allegations against my office, threats against the people in my office, threats against me. The FBI has recently arrested two people who have made death threats to county employees, including me.
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:33

    Both of those were made as a result of something that the cyber nineties had alleged regarding the elections.
  • Speaker 1
    0:05:39

    So I guess when you said that sometimes your job is psychologically on fun, you mean that you standing up for truth and not engaging in these conspiracy theories has, like, brought
  • Speaker 2
    0:05:49

    real life impact as people sort of threatened you for not being an election denier. That and I’m operating in a world that is wholly unfamiliar to me, that is a world of passion and faith and less a world of facts and logic, and that’s unfamiliar waters for me. And then there’s a whole industry that is politically or economically incentivized to continue to attack my office, to continue to so doubt in the election system. And if I’m being calm and collected about it, then I would say it’s nothing personal. It’s just that’s where the money is right now.
  • Speaker 2
    0:06:27

    But it is very wearing and people are trying to make it nearly impossible to administer elections in this important county.
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:36

    Yeah. And I
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:36

    guess I should just say on a personal note that I know Stephen and and one of the reasons I know Stephen is that he has been just a total champion of tamping down the hyperbole, but explaining to people calmly and rationally over and over and over again. The election was not stolen, and your Twitter feed is just a
  • Speaker 3
    0:06:55

    font if
  • Speaker 1
    0:06:55

    you’re trying to sort of calmly explain, here’s how the election’s gonna go, if ballots are going out, if you’re trying to educate people in this very neutral way. And I appreciate that. Because it’s
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:07

    it’s
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:07

    dwindling among the ranks of many people on the Republican side. And so you have been just a steadfast champion, and I’m a great admirer of yours but let’s jump in here to the focus group. We’re going to begin by talking about a bit of national news. So we did this group in Arizona the evening of the last January sixth committee hearing. Now, we know from our Trump voters that we talk to a lot that they denounced these hearings as a Dog and Pony show, But even for these swing voters, they were kind of mixed on whether the hearings were worthwhile.
  • Speaker 1
    0:07:36

    Let’s listen.
  • Speaker 3
    0:07:38

    I think they’re showing clear evidence of what went on. And, you know, I think that all the evidence particularly that they showed today where he had these speeches written back in July and October before the O election even took place that he was going to say he won. To me, that’s just really scary. I just don’t think you can label it or witch hunt. I mean, there’s very clear evidence.
  • Speaker 3
    0:08:12

    And
  • Speaker 4
    0:08:12

    I said any better, I agree. I
  • Speaker 5
    0:08:14

    was really appalled by January sixth. I actually watched it when it was happening, and I couldn’t believe it was happening.
  • Speaker 4
    0:08:21

    So I
  • Speaker 5
    0:08:22

    do believe you’ve somebody should be held accountable. I don’t know if this is a trunk which one or not. I don’t know. I just I
  • Speaker 3
    0:08:29

    don’t think it’s a trunk.
  • Speaker 5
    0:08:31

    I guess it has to be done. I was probably not really interested in it either and trusted the outcome. Yeah. It’s very political, so I don’t
  • Speaker 6
    0:08:40

    know. But
  • Speaker 5
    0:08:41

    some not to be done, I think, because it’s terrible. Oh, I don’t
  • Speaker 4
    0:08:44

    trust the committee. I mean, from what I know of it, it sounds like they wanna have some Republicans on it. And then they they wouldn’t let them on and they handpick who they want it on. So it’s a one-sided thing. I don’t know how much truth is gonna come out of it.
  • Speaker 4
    0:08:58

    How much fairness is gonna come out of it. So, I mean, it’s to one side that I think So
  • Speaker 7
    0:09:05

    what’s the point? I mean, seriously, god. It’s nice to bring all this out in the open. Can we keep it from happening again? Pull together, move forward?
  • Speaker 7
    0:09:15

    Tease. Isn’t there enough to worry about I don’t think they need their case. I don’t think we need to drag you in and and have another dog in Plumley Shokes. Everybody’s thoughtful of shit.
  • Speaker 8
    0:09:25

    It’s hard for me to just zero in and listen to anybody because I met the point where if you’re a politician and you’re talking, if your mouth’s moving, you’re lying.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:36

    Alright. So mixed bag, mixed responses from our swing voters, and I’ll just say So oftentimes in our swing voters, you’ll have people who voted for Trump in sixteen and then voted for Biden in twenty. In this group, Some of them voted for Biden. Some of them went third party or wrote somebody in or left it blank. So it’s kind of a mixed group.
  • Speaker 1
    0:09:56

    But important because of the narrow margins to know these are the swing voters. So listening to them, Steven, I am constantly struck by voters where they’ve just, like, lost faith in institutions. Well, sometimes when people ask me, like, what’s one of the dominant themes? I mean, it is just, like, the collapse and and trust in faith. And the media and institutions.
  • Speaker 1
    0:10:16

    You are somebody who has been trying, I think, very diligently to build trust in the election system in Arizona. Like, how are you approaching that? With
  • Speaker 2
    0:10:26

    a lot of work, a lot of effort. That’s the one thing I can control, but as was reflected in that conversation and I listened to the whole hour and a half of it is I sometimes wonder prompted by people like you, Sarah, if it’s a Mississippian endeavor, whether the Stalin election crowd has metastasized and there’s no convincing them otherwise. When I get into that mentality, I tried to say, well, forget about the past because all the people in that focus group said they didn’t wanna hear anything more about the twenty twenty election. And so I guess I take heart in that and let’s just provide good information, provide tours, provide videos, provide accessibility, provide transparency, humanize the process moving forward because I do think that we have diminishing marginal returns on the twenty twenty election, and so we try to make our information as forward focused as possible.
  • Speaker 1
    0:11:24

    Alright. Let’s dive into the governor’s race. I would say that this group had a generally negative impression of Kerry Lake but that doesn’t mean that they were all automatically gonna vote against her. Let’s listen. Carrie
  • Speaker 6
    0:11:37

    Lag is a nut job.
  • Speaker 3
    0:11:42

    That’s what’s
  • Speaker 7
    0:11:42

    really big.
  • Speaker 6
    0:11:44

    Either right or right. I don’t think she is in touch with anybody that is even close to even conservative, let alone moderate. I mean, she is so far to the right that, I mean, I think she will destroy her zona if she has the opportunity. And Unfortunately, our legislature
  • Speaker 3
    0:12:08

    will feed
  • Speaker 6
    0:12:08

    right into her politics. So
  • Speaker 5
    0:12:11

    she’s
  • Speaker 6
    0:12:12

    there’s the hell out of me. And I hope that there’s a chance that that she will not win. But, unfortunately, right now, polling is Looking like she is leading from what I see.
  • Speaker 4
    0:12:28

    I will do anything to not vote for her. She is a Meghan nut job she’s so far to the right that she’s off the platform. And I’m pretty much Yeah. I agree. I’d rather have Katie Hobbs do nothing to very little then screw us over.
  • Speaker 4
    0:12:46

    She’s a brown nosing maga trumper and I cannot stand election deniers.
  • Speaker 9
    0:12:52

    I just wish that we’d have a good nominee coming up on twenty twenty four. I noticed that in the Arizona election here. That seems like Republicans that we have a choice of now seem to be a little bit nuts as well. And will I probably vote for them? Yes.
  • Speaker 9
    0:13:09

    Out of my pure principle,
  • Speaker 3
    0:13:12

    but I
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:13

    wanna
  • Speaker 8
    0:13:13

    see what everyone else thinks. This whole thing with the apportionment. You know, come on. What are we doing? How many years are we going back?
  • Speaker 8
    0:13:20

    Make sure you want me to go back to New York.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:23

    That guy who said he’d vote for the nuts Republican candidate was a Kerry Lake Mark Kelly voter. So I’m still on my split ticket hobby horse here. Steven, so as I said at the top, I am deeply worried about Carrie Link winning, the governorship. Especially if she brings Mark Finchum along as secretary of state. So can you just talk about the mechanics of certification.
  • Speaker 1
    0:13:49

    Like, if Carrie Lake refuses to certify and she’s got a secretary of state in Mark Finjan who refuses to certify get twenty twenty four election. How does that work? What will happen if that occurs? I don’t
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:03

    know. We’d be an unprecedented territory, uncharted waters. Elections are administered at the county level. We have fifteen counties in Arizona As mentioned, Maricopa County makes up more than half of the voting population by far the biggest county. Elections are first certified at the county level by the various boards of supervisors.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:23

    Once all fifteen boards of supervisors have done that, then it goes up to the Secretary of State, the Attorney General, and the Governor. And the statutory language on this is that they shall certify the various reports from the fifteen counties. I haven’t explored how much license, how much latitude that those three officers have to challenge that. The secretary of state is often called the chief elections off of the state of Arizona. And so I think that there is a certain amount of license.
  • Speaker 2
    0:14:53

    But the ramifications on elections are far broader than simply certifying or not certifying the election. We have many state legislators who are on the ballot, who have advanced past the primary states, who have mason their entire reason for being election reform, fundamentally changing the election system. And I think it is very possible that if joined with governor Lake that Arizona elections don’t look anything like they’ve looked for the past thirty years.
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:27

    Yeah. This is my big worry. As part of it is when you say uncharted waters, it’s just
  • Speaker 3
    0:15:31

    like, we
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:32

    haven’t been here before, and I get sort of asked this question all the time. It’s like, well, what happens if we’ve got all these election deniers across the country, certifying elections, answers like, I don’t know. We get plunged into chaos. That really is the alarming part. But I get I also get asked a lot people, like, well, Cary Lake is so extreme and she says she won’t, you know, certify elections.
  • Speaker 1
    0:15:53

    But you know, there’s plenty of Republicans who are still gonna vote for her. In fact, I think she is outperforming the Republican on the senate side. Blake masters. You know, and I I think the reason for that is in part because she was a television personality in the state. She was a newscaster, which is a high trust, position, high trust relationship with the audience.
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:15

    But also, it seems to have something to do with her opponent, Katie Hobbs. Then I’ll just say for the record, this group broke seven to four Hobbs. So there were two lake voters. But even though they think think she’s a little nuts. They just sort of object to putting Democrats in charge.
  • Speaker 1
    0:16:33

    Let’s listen.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:34

    If I look
  • Speaker 4
    0:16:36

    back at the pandemic, generally, you look at what Democratic governors did in states versus Republican. And I definitely don’t want Arizona to end up with the Democratic governor if this happens again.
  • Speaker 5
    0:16:48

    I mean, they
  • Speaker 4
    0:16:48

    shut their states down. They took people’s rights away. They closed everything. They’re still in chaos.
  • Speaker 3
    0:16:56

    And then
  • Speaker 4
    0:16:56

    you look at the Republican states and even Arizona, we were free. We didn’t run around with masks on when we didn’t need to be you know, masks don’t work anyway with the virus. It’s been crazy with the pandemic, and I’m so grateful we live in a Republican state
  • Speaker 2
    0:17:13

    right now. It
  • Speaker 4
    0:17:13

    didn’t have to deal with all the nonsense.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:15

    Carrie Lake
  • Speaker 4
    0:17:15

    is a bit on the wacky side. I mean, I’m not gonna deny that. She’s, I guess, a little carried away sometimes. But if I look at the big picture, I can deal with her getting a little bit carried away as long as they have my second camera rights. The border secure law enforcement’s there to protect us.
  • Speaker 4
    0:17:31

    And criminals aren’t gonna be released. I think
  • Speaker 9
    0:17:35

    just with this blue wave of where, like, they get more money out of taxes, but I don’t see the roads any better there, any kind of services there, better than it currently is here, I think. Us be in a pretty much a Republican state. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with the way things are going to have a Democrat in that leader position.
  • Speaker 3
    0:17:57

    So this
  • Speaker 1
    0:17:59

    is one of those things where look, the group of swing rotors, it broke for for Hobbs. But there were people who were talking basically about the fundamentals. Right? Where they wanted to provide a check on Democrats. They have a lot of things that they don’t like about Democrats.
  • Speaker 1
    0:18:15

    This is just what Democrats are up against. And I think in a state like Arizona where it’s so narrow, the margins are so narrow. If you’re losing you know, two out of the nine swing voters. Like, actually, that’s like, even though a majority of your global hubs, it’s tough. Like, you really can’t afford to lose anybody.
  • Speaker 1
    0:18:35

    So part of this is the fundamentals. But I think the other issue is Katie Hobbs, Carrie Lake’s opponent, And I got to say, so when I think about Arizona compared to say a state like Pennsylvania in their governor’s race, Carrie Lake and Doug Mastriado are sort of like similar types of crazy, and voters know it. But these swing voters are more open to lake. And part of that reason is that they’re just not that hot on Katy Hobbs. Whereas in Pennsylvania, for example, you get, you know, Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee for governor, like, people really liked him affirmatively.
  • Speaker 1
    0:19:13

    They he’s got all kinds of things about him that they’re for. And so he as a result, he’s like crushing Doug Mastriano right now in the polling. But Katie Hobbs is is neck and neck and and maybe even a little bit behind Carrie Lake. Let’s listen to voters talk about Katie Hobbs.
  • Speaker 3
    0:19:30

    I think
  • Speaker 6
    0:19:32

    eighty is the least offensive, I guess. I’d rather be in the center and have her do nothing then to see what Blake will do and destroy this this
  • Speaker 10
    0:19:45

    state. I don’t
  • Speaker 5
    0:19:46

    think she’ll hurt us too much. I don’t think she’s gonna do anything good for the border. I don’t like the idea of supporting sanctuary cities, things like that, but I don’t know if she can accomplish that anyway. So, yeah, it’s just the extreme other side is what scares me more, I think. And we probably will still have a Republican state led you know, government.
  • Speaker 5
    0:20:14

    So other than the governor. So I don’t know
  • Speaker 3
    0:20:17

    what what she
  • Speaker 5
    0:20:18

    can get
  • Speaker 6
    0:20:19

    done. The
  • Speaker 4
    0:20:19

    border is wide open. Drugs are pouring across. It’s you know, Hobbs, I don’t think it’s gonna do anything about the
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:26

    border.
  • Speaker 4
    0:20:27

    Lake is supporting law enforcement. I think Lake’s gonna support law enforcement. Hobbs isn’t being the secretary of state, she was in the room, and she does know how it operates.
  • Speaker 7
    0:20:36

    And Carrie Lake would have to get up to speed, it could take her a while, even if HubSpot does nothing, at least she would know the workings of the government.
  • Speaker 1
    0:20:47

    So here’s what’s interesting to me. Carrie Lake has made election denialism sort of central to her candidacy. She’s got this clip actually where she talks about president Trump saying to her, you know, Kerry, what I love about you is every conversation we have you brand right back to the election being stolen. And so she she talks she’s an election denier. Katie Hobbs is the acting secretary of state.
  • Speaker 1
    0:21:12

    She oversaw twenty twenty election. She I remember that’s the first time I ever heard of her because she was talking about, what I guess, got dubbed Sharpie Gate at the time, and she was on there explaining how the election looked. And so, I guess, what’s weird to me is that Hobbes hasn’t been able to sort of put Kerry Lake on defense for her election denialism. Like, it seems like she’s in just this position to be a really robust advocate for the fact that the last election was free and fair, that she had a big role in it. And I just wonder, like, why is that?
  • Speaker 2
    0:21:47

    Well, they don’t interact that much as the participants of the Focus Group noted that there has been no debate I don’t know that there has been even much sort of for TAT even in the online ecosystem. So they’ve both been operating, I think, in separate silos. And so, you know, I would say it’s more than local media, national media who have tried to go after Lake for election denialism. But I think that some people think she adrointly handles that and responds in a in a punchy manner. And certainly for me, it’s exasperating because I know why every single claim is false.
  • Speaker 2
    0:22:29

    But that’s been sort of one of the philosophies of this whole movement is just keep throwing stuff on the wall and overwhelm the voter and some of it might sound good. And
  • Speaker 1
    0:22:39

    you’re a Republican there in the state. And so I I don’t wanna draw you into, like, the horse race politics commentary, but I am interested in what you as a Republican who’s been kind of pushing back the election denialism, but who, you know, I think, Carrie Lake said she wanted she would be a jail or some some of the Republicans did. Like, if Carrie Lake wins, what does your life look like?
  • Speaker 5
    0:23:04

    I think it
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:05

    becomes challenging. And I what I’ve tried to convey to people that I I’m the canary in the coal mine, and I’m sure we all have lots of interest and I know that there are pressing concerns and in other areas whether it’s inflation or whether it’s the border. But from my perspective, living in this day to day, the amount of pressure that is being put on election administration right now is so immense and that’s with the governor who fundamentally doesn’t put any stock in this theory with an attorney general who in private doesn’t put any stock in this theory. That all could change. And I
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:43

    think that
  • Speaker 2
    0:23:44

    it could disrupt the electoral system and, you know, all bets are off at that point. Howard Bauchner:
  • Speaker 3
    0:23:49

    You must
  • Speaker 1
    0:23:50

    have worked with Katie Hobbs during the twenty twenty election to some degree or or after? Like, right now, do you think she’s been, like, a good secretary of
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:02

    state? I work primarily with her staff. Her staff is capable. Her staff is sensible. I think that we’ve done a nice job as a team, both the fifteen counties and the Secretary of State.
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:18

    I always have things that, you know, I might do differently or but, you know, we’ve been able to negotiate and handle those disagreements, those differences, I think, in a professional manner. And I think that we’ve put forward a good product. I think we had a very successful August primary. And I’m confident that things are gonna, from an administrative standpoint, be solid for this November general election. And so if you judge a person by the people that she surrounds herself with or the people that she hires, then I think that there’s a lot to be said for secretary hops.
  • Speaker 2
    0:24:52

    Okay, great.
  • Speaker 1
    0:24:54

    You did mention something though earlier about the fact that Katy Hobbs has refused to debate Kelly Lake. This has me I just think it’s a catastrophic blunder to refuse to debate lake. And and so did the voters in the focus group? Let’s listen. Some
  • Speaker 9
    0:25:14

    of you guys have some good justification of picking the hubs, but I keep on going back to Hobbes not debating Kerry Lake. I think that’s the big part of politics. And if she is a seasoned or professional politician, she should know that. That’s debating this the issue. Her excuse is because Carrie Lake will
  • Speaker 6
    0:25:39

    make a mockery
  • Speaker 9
    0:25:40

    out of the whole debate and just to be able to control her. I look at it more like if there’s some sort of conflict and we need our governor to speak up or do anything, with Mexico or another state or something. And if she can’t debate a nut job like Caroline, in her opinion, then how is she gonna handle any kind of other situation with that? I mean, I think it would be good to show someone like me that have hubs stood up to her even though Carrie’s acting mugs, I
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:10

    would probably
  • Speaker 9
    0:26:11

    lean more towards hubs if I saw Carrie like doing that. But houses in doing that. And I just don’t like how she’s not debating her. I think that should be a rule. Honestly, I’d
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:22

    like to
  • Speaker 4
    0:26:23

    listen to what her policies are on these different hot topics right now, and maybe I’m wrong on something, and then a debate would clarify their stances on things. So, I mean, you never know. I mean, she could say something and Carrie feel I could go really off the deep end, and then I would maybe swing him his way, but it depends on you know, the content of it and what their stance is on it. Bob
  • Speaker 3
    0:26:45

    knows how things work. She was the target of so much pro Trump stuff after the election and under so much pressure, like, every other official in this state and in states where he didn’t win. And, you know, I just I get it. Like, why do you wanna debate someone who is just off the rails? It doesn’t give you a chance to say anything.
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:16

    So what I heard there is that there were two lake voters who were persuadable potentially for Hobbs, but they were sticking with Lake because Katie Hobbs refuses to debate, which makes me very upset. But, you know, I guess
  • Speaker 3
    0:27:30

    taking the
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:31

    third person, the third that woman’s point about the fact that, you know, every chance you give Kerry Lake is a chance for her to why, and that’s what she’s done in the other debates, like the primary debates. So it’s unproductive. And I think that’s what Katie Hobbs has said about why she wouldn’t do it. But what do you think? Because you’re somebody who just believes in information.
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:50

    So do you think it was a mistake for Katie Hobbs not to debate Carrie Lake? Well, I’d
  • Speaker 2
    0:27:55

    like to debate. I’d love
  • Speaker 1
    0:27:57

    to debate Gary Lake.
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:00

    Yeah. I’d love to debate anyone who continues to to spout this this nonsense just because The facts are all on my side. I like to think I’m a reasonably articulate person, and I’m not afraid of people. So put me in coach I’m ready to go, and it would be moderately amusing as well, which, you know, politics as entertainment as a whole industry these days. So why not?
  • Speaker 2
    0:28:22

    What what struck me about the focus group was that everyone was aware and that they had an opinion. I was under the impression that nobody really cared about debates on the local level, you know, aside from a presidential debate, nobody really paid that much attention, and it was mostly just rallying to the flag. Confirmation bias and that only the political inside class would be obsessed with the decision to debate or not. But this certainly suggests that it’s spread beyond that and that this is something that, you know, normal Arizona’s are contemplating and even factoring into their decision calculus, though I don’t know that it was just positive for any of the members of the Focus groups in terms of setting their
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:05

    vote.
  • Speaker 3
    0:29:05

    Yeah. I
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:06

    think that’s right. Although, like, here’s my beef with it. Your point about who pays attention to the debates. Right? Looks like we asked this group if they had watched the senate debate.
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:15

    Right? Because they’ve been a Kelly Masters debate, and they hadn’t really watched it. And to your point, and that’s why I think that Hobbs should dept debate it because don’t think it was gonna make a material difference one way or the other. Because look, Cary Lake, rhetorical,
  • Speaker 3
    0:29:29

    is very
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:30

    talented. She’s been on television for a long time. We have a couple of instances actually across these races where, you know, like, the Federman Oz matchup. Like, I think Oss as a buffoon, but he’s been on television for years and years. And actually, when you watch him on stage, he’s quite good.
  • Speaker 1
    0:29:47

    And Cary Lake is also quite good. She does this code switching, right, where she can seem to sort of talk normie to normies and talk crazy to crazies. She spends much more of her time on the crazy side. But there’s no doubt. Like, she is compelling, she’s charismatic, and I guess I can sort of understand though it does not justify sort of not getting in the ring with her.
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:08

    But I think if Hobbes had done it, however it had gone, it would be better than having the narrative solidify that Hobbs won’t debate late. Because that makes her look weak. I cannot tell you how obsessed these voters are and across all the focus groups with kind of strength and weakness. You know, the national programs are putting her on because she’s making for great TV and everywhere she goes she accuses Hobbs of being too afraid to debate her. And I just think that that overall is hurting.
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:41

    Hobbs, the other thing I think is that even though that Katie Hobbs has been Secretary of State, and even though she’s been, you know, sort of well known, I think, because she was on TV a lot during the they
  • Speaker 2
    0:30:52

    didn’t have any formed opinions of her. They
  • Speaker 1
    0:30:54

    didn’t. That’s right. They have this and the people talk about Hobbs the way they talk about just to draw comparison, Kamala Harris. Which is kind of a, like, where is she? I don’t see very much of her.
  • Speaker 1
    0:31:02

    I don’t know that much about her. And so if you’re the one who’s not very defined, like, you’ve gotta go debate Anyway, I will just double stop moving it off my whole.
  • Speaker 2
    0:31:13

    Your focus group made it sound like a referendum on Cary Lake more than a commentary on Katy Hobbs And one thing, you know, I’m not the political strategist you are and others who are very good at this. You know, can determine whether or not it was the right strategy. But one of the things that I’ve been struck by is that I watched the attorney general’s debate, I lost the secretary of state debate, and they’re so preposterously short. They’re thirty minutes with the moderator You have an opening statement. You have a closing statement.
  • Speaker 2
    0:31:44

    You have it for both sides. Such that the amount of damage that you can do to yourself is really pretty limited because you can hardly get a word in edge wise and really can’t debate any point very substantively. So that might factor into to whether or not this was the right decision or not, but I I don’t know, and I haven’t given it much thought. And I don’t know that my thought would be worth all that much beyond my own personal perception. That’s
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:09

    okay. Well, I I have lots of thoughts for
  • Speaker 2
    0:32:11

    this. So
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:12

    I can I can make up for both of us on this particular point. So you mentioned that there was a secretary of debate. Actually, I wanna talk a little bit about the Secretary of State race. So six out of the nine people in this group including one of the late voters, knew that they were gonna vote for Adrian Fontes, who’s the Democrat. And they said things like insane and anti Semitic about Mark Finchum, which is all true.
  • Speaker 1
    0:32:36

    He isn’t saying it in anti semitic. To me, the prospect of Finturum running elections in a swing state is like the scariest thing. I’ve got a little mash up here of some of Finjan’s best hits.
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:49

    We
  • Speaker 9
    0:32:50

    know it, and
  • Speaker 11
    0:32:51

    they know
  • Speaker 3
    0:32:52

    it. Donald
  • Speaker 10
    0:32:54

    Trump won. It is time
  • Speaker 11
    0:33:01

    for us the Arizona legislature. To move those counties which are irredeemably compromised, into the your decertified section.
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:14

    This is
  • Speaker 12
    0:33:15

    how the people can get justice. I suspect
  • Speaker 13
    0:33:19

    that Donald Trump probably
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:21

    won by
  • Speaker 13
    0:33:22

    at least the margin that, probably Raven won, if not greater.
  • Speaker 3
    0:33:25

    What we have in
  • Speaker 11
    0:33:27

    Arizona, in my opinion, based upon the evidence, is an election that is irredeemably compromised, and we can’t a clear winner. And that’s where that that is the position that we should take.
  • Speaker 6
    0:33:39

    And
  • Speaker 11
    0:33:39

    frankly,
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:40

    I
  • Speaker 11
    0:33:40

    believe that we should decertify our elections.
  • Speaker 2
    0:33:45

    Okay. Wow. Well, all that is as inaccurate as two plus two equals five, but I gotta admit that back grounding music had me sort of jazzed up to get on board there at the beginning. Well, that’s
  • Speaker 1
    0:33:57

    bad. I get what really the music went you over?
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:01

    It was it was inspiring. It was the uplifting. Yes. Let’s rally to the flag. I’m just I’m I guess, I’m a base emotional creature just like just like so many.
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:11

    Well, let’s talk
  • Speaker 1
    0:34:12

    about you here specifically because Finjan is running against Adrian Fontez. The guy you beat for the recorder’s office in twenty twenty, which means you clearly would have some complaints about Fontaine’s record because you ran against him. So, like, how do you think about this race now
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:32

    as a voter? That the world works in mysterious ways. And my my my wife is more than a little bit amused. And yeah. This is this one has been
  • Speaker 8
    0:34:43

    This zone has been really interesting
  • Speaker 2
    0:34:44

    for me, and it’s put me sort of in a in a in a perplexing situation. And what I’ve done is just tried to handle it as professionally as possible. But the one thing that we’re consistent on is we is we tell the truth and If somebody says something wrong, if somebody says something inaccurate about elections process or about historical elections, then we’re gonna continue to correct the record because as much about defending democracy as this office has become. It’s also just about defending the historical record and just the weird contortions of truths that are just being permitted yes, offensively with the twenty twenty election, but also in the in other context as well. And so that’s something that sort of motivated me and it has been what I grabbed onto in this particular race.
  • Speaker 2
    0:35:30

    But this yeah. It’s it’s been a weird one for me.
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:33

    Mhmm.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:34

    Yeah. You’re the best. Hey, listen, I have one sort of last question about people there
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:40

    in Arizona.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:40

    So I I have been kind of fascinated by this notion that Carrie Lake has been on the TV for a very long time as a news anchor. And and in
  • Speaker 6
    0:35:48

    some ways,
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:49

    I keep going back
  • Speaker 3
    0:35:50

    and forth.
  • Speaker 1
    0:35:51

    Like, in some ways, I’m sort of shocked that she’s doing as well as she is and absolutely in a position to win. Even though she’s so extreme, on the flip side, I guess there’s part of me that is a little surprised she’s not doing better just because it seems like Hobbes has been more absent, like, because John a lot to develop her national profile. And more importantly, she’s famous in the state. And so she’s got a lot of name ID. It’s like, do you have like a long history with her?
  • Speaker 1
    0:36:18

    Do you have like a did you watch her on the TV? Has tell me what it’s like to be an Arizona voter and how you would have thought about Kerry Lake? Prior to her running? No, I don’t actually
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:29

    she’s one of the few people in running in politics that I hadn’t had the opportunity to meet previously, and that’s because she’s so new to the game. She’s new to the conservative movement too. Really, this was something that sort of It was an awakening she had and I don’t know what was it? Twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen. So I know all the repeat players, all the regular attendees of you know, the Federal Society meetings, the Republican Party meetings, the conventions, those who work on campaigns, you know, etcetera, etcetera.
  • Speaker 2
    0:36:59

    But the, you know, part of her appeal is that she has come from outside of that world and that she is actually hostile to that world as rep presented by the doozy world, the flake world, the McCain world. And so I don’t know her, but I do speak with people who have had a either a career with her or a a friendship with her, and they are consistently amazed by the transformation, and they tell me that it is genuine. That it’s not just you know, Stephen Colbert playing and playing a caricature just to, I don’t know, stir some emotions or stir a passion or take advantage of an opportunity. And so That’s what I regularly hear, but I I I don’t know her. Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:37:47

    But
  • Speaker 3
    0:37:48

    what about just
  • Speaker 1
    0:37:48

    in terms of her being on the TV there in Arizona? Like, do you feel like voters have a preexisting relationship with her because that’s what I’ve heard in some of these groups. Like, you heard it in this group. Right? We the moderator asked if they had seen her on TV.
  • Speaker 1
    0:38:04

    And, like, a couple of guys commented on, like, how hot she was. But and I guess I’m wondering how widespread that is. Like, how famous is she in the state? You know, in terms of people having this relationship with her as a newscaster. Yeah.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:17

    I I mean, yeah, I’ve heard that too, you know, she was in my living room for for x number of years and sort of thing. I don’t know. I don’t form relationships with people that I haven’t ever met. But, you know, I also wasn’t a local news consumer. I, you know, I read my news, and so I’ll I’ll admit that I’m perhaps not the typical consumer in that respect.
  • Speaker 2
    0:38:39

    And so but, you know, I I I do think that there’s really something to it and it’s certainly something that she has capitalized on. And just going again, back to the focus group conversation, there was a sense that she was a known entity. Both as a broadcaster and as a politician. And the unknown entity was somebody who had been in the state legislature for a number of years who have been secretary of state for almost four years now, who had gone through the twenty twenty election, and So, you know, clearly the politics of celebrity and the politics of having a persona outside of the political world is very much a thing now. I don’t need to tell you that witnessed Donald Trump sort of thing.
  • Speaker 2
    0:39:25

    So
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:26

    Yeah. And I just I’m just gonna tag on to that exact point about the celebrity. You know, I I am endlessly on the phone with reporters who are all writing stories about around DeSantis as sort of like the future of the post Trump GOP. Is he who he win, blah blah blah? And one of the things I say to them is like, look, there’s just no doubt.
  • Speaker 1
    0:39:47

    If you’re doing a focus group with Trump voters, if you say, like, oh, who do you wanna see rather than twenty twenty four? Some people say Trump. A lot of people say to Santos. And if you say Trump, Is it Like, if you take Trump out of it, you say, who would you like to see? Like, the scientists is by far and away.
  • Speaker 1
    0:40:02

    The number one name you hear, like, that is who these voters see as like the under study to Trump currently. But I’ll tell you what, if Carrie Lake wins this race, I am convinced she becomes the front runner for being Trump’s vice president and become sort of like the keeper of the flame for who who who is the the MAGA candidate, the true MAGA candidate, proposed TRUMP. And one of the things that I’ve been the most alarmed about and I’ll try not to put you in a position to comment on this. You can take it wherever you want. One of these I found the most alarming is seeing, you know, these candidates like Glenn Youngkin and Rhonda Santos, especially Youngkin, people who are supposed to be they’re supposed to be our good Republicans.
  • Speaker 1
    0:40:48

    They’re supposed to be the ones that, you know, we can sort of root for. But they’ve come down there to campaign with Gary Lake. And to me, that is sort of disqualifying in their judgment. But I guess I guess the question I’d ask you is, like, do you see Kerry Lake as the future of the Republican Party? And where does that leave you as a
  • Speaker 3
    0:41:06

    Republican? Well, I
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:07

    think populism is a scourge on on the earth. So that that should give you a sense of sort of my politics Regarding Rhonda Santis, yeah, it’s interesting because he’s more cut from the cloth, same cloth as I am, although he’s tried to recast himself and maybe awkwardly so. And I think you see this, you know, Ted Cruz, Rhonda Santos. You know, we all, you know, sort of went to top five law schools and then got involved in local Republican politics and then eventually ran for office. And so I’m certainly not putting myself in the rare fight era that they’re both in, in terms of positions.
  • Speaker 2
    0:41:40

    But I’m younger, but that trajectory seemed familiar to me. But I was having lunch with somebody yesterday who’s not a Carrie Lake supporter, but he was saying that we need to increasingly look for good and for bad to sort of the media markets, to celebrity, to athletes who could carry the torch for whatever values we wish to put forward. And he said, you know, look at Zelensky. And Zelensky, somebody who cut his cloth in professional acting, and he has used that to the great betterment of society, to Ukraine, to the advancement of democracy. And so, you know, maybe this is the world in which we’re going and in which these people who are more attuned to the the hearts and souls of people or the emotions of people.
  • Speaker 2
    0:42:26

    For me, I think that politics should be a cerebral discussion of policy and that that should win out and that you should win because you have better ideas or you’re more able to effectively implement them, but perhaps I’m a dinosaur in that respect.
  • Speaker 3
    0:42:42

    Yeah.
  • Speaker 1
    0:42:43

    Well, Stephen, I’ll just say. I think it is you who breathes the rarified air these days as somebody of principal who is doing their best to align with the truth when so many others are abandoning it. Steven Richter, I really appreciate you coming on the show today and being our guest and helping us talk about how to think about these elections. And I want to thank all of you for joining us for another episode of The Focus Group podcast. We are down to the wire here.
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:12

    We’ve only got a couple more. We’ll get back to Pennsylvania to talk about the senate race soon. So stay tuned. We’ll see you again next week. Week.
  • Speaker 1
    0:43:23

    Bye bye.
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