Admissions of Guilt (with Amanda Carpenter)

Hello, everyone. Welcome to the next level. I’m J VL here with my best friend Miller and a very, very dear, dear friend and colleague Amanda Carpenter, who will have some personal talk. In some personal news about Amanda towards the end of the show.

I’m not dying.

Guys, happy hunter, Biden, plea bargain day. We’re recording this on Tuesday evening. Show comes out on Wednesday. Hunter Biden, the feds. Got him.

They got him dead to rights, and they squeezed him till he pleaded out as as the great Fred Thompson said on law and order, the plea bargain is the greatest invention in jurisprudence and the guillotine.

Okay.

What did you guys make of it?

You know, I wonder if Fred these days a MAGA Fred an AI MAGA Fred Thompson. I wonder what he would have said about the Hunter plea.

I I’d like to defend his honor. I do not think Fred Thompson would have gone MAGa. I think he would have left politics before he went MAGa.

Kinda did leave politics.

Amanda Hugo, I’m sorry. I I I I bullied my way into the shopping.

I’ll be honest. I’ve I’ve not fully like excited or read into this story, he plead to it. It’s over. Fine. Good.

The end?

Two tiered system of justice where some people are forced to plead guilty and other people have the feds ask them a dozen times to please give back the classified records that they illegally held on to. And they refused to they refused to either give them back or then plead plead out and instead force a raid and a criminal indictment.

Here’s the reason I can’t get excited about the Hunter Biden story. Because every time I watch the MAGa Media get, like, so exercised about it, I just wanna say to them, you know Hunter Biden is not president Biden. Right? Do you know that?

Only part of the Biden crime family.

Right.

Where is Hunter? They want him to be. Where’s Hunter? Why isn’t around. They I got used to this.

I thought that son son in laws and daughters were supposed to just hang out with the White House doing deals.

All four going after these corrupt kids. I am for it. Go after Jared. Go after Ivanka. Go after all of them.

I mean, here’s the other thing. Like, there’s so much open corruption happening, it’s just gross. Like, of course, you know, they didn’t even get into the business deals. And, like, go ahead, James Comer. You’ve been investigating in the house.

For, like, how long now, and you’ve come up with absolutely nothing, it’s the ultimate impression that gets me.

To say. They had they had of this little old lady who knew it all. And she just happened to pass away. Otherwise, they would’ve gone. They would’ve had them.

Maybe it was passed away though, but maybe it was more areas. Who’s to say?

So Tim, I wanna I wanna set the table here because I’m hoping you’re gonna give me a righteous rant.

I have a rant. Do it. I’m happy that I’m actually I’m jealous of Amanda. I wish I could not care about this, but, unfortunately, my blood pressure was high today.

Alright. So here’s here’s the deal. The assistant US turning case is one David Weiss, he was appointed to his position.

He must be a lift.

In the Department of Justice by president Donald j Trump. President Donald j Trump said, when he announced David Weiss’ appointment, the David Weiss, shared his goal of, quote, making America safe again.

This is

a quote from the announcement about Weiss’s appointment. Typically, what happens when a new president from a different party takes over all of the AUSA’s are replaced. In this case, the Biden administration retained two assistant US attorneys, one of whom was David Weiss. Why did they retain him?

Because he’s part of the Biden prime point.

Act of

investigating Hunter Biden, the president’s son. And so Joe Biden the president did not want to interfere with the investigation of his own kid and he let this guy keep going.

Job, Joe.

Seems normal.

David Weiss wound up getting hunter to plead. He’s had a grand jury in process. The three charges we have are two misdemeanor tax charges because he didn’t file and pay taxes when he owed a hundred thousand dollars for two consecutive years, and then a gun charge. Here’s the gun charge. When purchasing a firearm and filling out a federal form, which asked, are you addicted to any illegal substances?

Hunter Biden said no. But in fact, the answer was yes. So he plead guilty

to lying to the government?

He plead guilty.

He said precedent, could this set?

I lied to the government. And what he was then is is diverted into a diversion program to help him reclaim his good habits and since he was a nonviolent defender, who didn’t go and shoot nineteen people at a shopping mall with his gun that he lied on the form to get. He just happened to lie in the form. Anyway, all of this say I

just have a quick aside question. It’s a really quick aside and then I’ll get to your question. It just it’s just it’s more of a personal matter. May or may not be personal, but the listening to the Hunter Biden gun thing, so so like when I go into the doctor’s office or when someone like me goes to the doctor’s office and they say, you know, how many cigarettes have you had in the last year and I say none and they say how many alcohol drinks do you have a month and I’m like, you know, three to six.

They bring you down for, like, twenty.

Does does that does that does that open me up to any crimes like this? Or is it just because it was

No. No. Only if you’re buying an AR fifteen and you lie about being The paperwork about life

to your doctors now.

I just learned I just learned to flag. I was hearing about I was hearing the hunter thing, and it was bringing up some

There is an issue, I think, Because there’s been people pediatricians asking if there’s guns in the household, and there was a controversy over that instance.

Guns in the household.

Because they’re trying to figure out if there’s house hazards. That might be something else, but I don’t think so.

So Tim, I’ve having just set the table for listeners. Please, sir. Do your thing.

The sit back? Listen?

Well, you missed one you missed one thing JBL. In addition to the the late tax payments on two years and and the not admitting that he’s addicted to crack when he bought the gun. He also did take thirty thousand in proper deductions. Oh. So tough stuff.

Did he not have the receipts for those?

I guess he didn’t. He took him as a business expensive.

Tried to write off for one.

It was kinda, like, in Seinfeld, where it’s like

You just write it off to to write

it right there? Do that laptop. I dropped off with this sketch doctor. I think it’s stolen.

I used that. Eighty percent for business, twenty percent for personal — ten

for news. Twenty percent for news. Actually, we looked at the we looked at the laptop, and it was ninety percent news.

Intellectual property.

Ten percent ten percent questionable business deals.

The IRS always gets you.

Look, Hunter Hunter is a problem as a guy with problems, is shady. I I don’t like it. I have I have a beloved reader who emails me and says that we’re I I should care more about this because if this was Trump’s kids I would be mad and and I say to that beloved either. I am mad. I wish that we had a president who did not have any family members who grifted off of the president’s name.

I really wish we did. We don’t. We have a current president whose son has used Biden’s name in and several including in foreign business deals, that’s bad. But like, I mean, it’s nothing even on the scale of what the Trump kids do. I mean, it’s not even in the same universe.

You know, and we’re talking about, you know, a couple milli here and there. MBS sent billions to Jared Kushner. And NBS is and many foreign governments were actively paying the sitting president, not just his family. The sitting president through his hotels and whatnot. So anyway, putting that aside, this case, the thing that has gotten me You want Joe Articone as a great run down from the hill.

If you haven’t got the press pass newsletter, go read it. All the Crazy Magas, the Marjorie Tail Greens are saying all this stuff you’d think that they would say, Oh, this is a sweetheart deal. This is a rat. This is the Biden. The Biden, you know, the Biden crime family intervened and doesn’t gave them this sweetheart deal and and they, you know, it’s it’s only bind.

If this happened to you, MAGamericans, like, oh, you would have gotten the book thrown at you. I don’t know what the book is exactly on on thirty thousand and

you You’ve had the art of the deal thrown at you.

Who would have known? But here’s the thing. It isn’t just them. Tim Scott, the good Republican, the the the, you know, I I don’t wanna insult any of our friends, the the never Trump conservative center right, Republican front, Republican of choice. Tim Scott is tweeting today.

About how it’s a two tiered system of justice and mega Americans wouldn’t have been treated this way. Ben Shapiro, the thinking man’s pundit. You know, not one of those crazy MAGas, just somebody who employs crazy MAGas like Candace Owens. Like, he’s the reasonable one. Is out there saying today that he got this sweetheart deal.

It’s just like, what in the fuck are you people talking about? Like like they just they have they have one program. They have no interest in being good faith, but no matter what happens in this Hunter case, they were gonna sing from the same damn hymnbook to just run cover for Donald Trump. They might pretend they like don’t like Trump. They might say they prefer Ron DeSantis, but all of this is a big old k fave in it to run cover for Donald Trump and his criminality.

The Hunter Boniedin plea deal. I’m not a legal expert, that seems like a pretty good deal. Do you wanna know one anecdote that shows me why it’s a good deal? Here’s another settlement I’d like to bring up to you. Here’s one that happened recently.

Oh, I know what you’re doing.

I know what you’re doing.

There’s a a two million dollar settlement that was that was made. The agreement filed Friday asked the US district court for the Southern District of Florida hint hint. To enter a judgment that would resolve or has just have dismissed all the claims the federal government made regarding one point seven million in unpaid income taxes. More than a hundred

thousand dollars.

Penalties and interest. Yeah. Yeah. The one point seven million more quite a bit more. They had to pay penalties and interest for this, did to pay back taxes.

There was no probation. They did not have to plead guilty. The the defendants in this case,

Hillary are two tier yet, Chelsea Clinton and Hillary Clinton?

No. It was Roger and not Nydia, Nydia, Stone. What? I don’t know if that was his actual wife or one of the sisters. My goodness.

Roger Stone.

So Ron DeSantis Florida forgave a million dollars in taxes for Roger Stone. Is that is that what

you’re saying? No. Federal Court. That’s that’s that’s true. That was Delaware.

Hunter was in Delaware. Roger was doing it in Florida.

This was a heightened point. It’s soft on crying democrat prosecutor who let him off, and that’s why.

After Stone got a pardon, how many times has Roger Stone gotten?

Oh, the time, yes.

He’s a pardon.

Oh, is oh, wait. Oh, wait. I know what’s gonna happen. Biden is going to pardon his son. Right?

That that’s what comes next. Right? Like that’s how this Bulwark.

Right. Just like part of these guys. So this asshole in this two tiered system of justice where the maggots are being targeted, Roger Stone has been pardoned by one president and then just given a get out of jail free card by the feds on a tax bill that was 20x Hunter Biden’s tax bill. Hunter got a worse deal than that. Hunter had to deal with a Trump appointed justice.

Prosecutors. A

prosecutor. Thank you. That Biden did not interfere with, that Biden did not get involved with. In fact, Donald Trump tried to bleed he bleeded out a picture of Biden with with somebody from the Department of Justice to prove they’re colluding. The picture was from twenty thirteen when he was vice president and the person was not at the Department of Justice.

Like like these guys have fucking nothing. Like Hunter, if anything I I guess you wouldn’t say you got a raw deal, but Hunter got a fair deal. Right? They treated him. It’s it wouldn’t be surprising if they put their thumb on the scale a little bit because they they didn’t want to have the image of, you know, having treated him better than other folks.

But for his part, you gotta say he played Ball.

Yes. Thank you.

Donald Trump played Ball and admitted to some things. And plead guilty, we wouldn’t be going through all the court stuff. Like, you have

to be all the documents.

Yeah. You get better deals when you cooperate generally. If you agree to admit some guilt, they treat you a little better, like, this isn’t a big secret.

There is a two tiered system of justice between people who risk respond when the federal government passed through that subpoena. Absolutely. On some level. Yeah. That’s the two tiered system.

Between those who hit documents and those who kinda be — to listen to lawyers.

—

and people who listen to Tom Fitten. Another big difference.

Yeah. There’s there’s a two tier

system there

as well.

Man, I don’t think Here’s

what the book would have entailed. Hunter would have been on the hook for one year for each count of the tax stuff and up two ten years of for the firearms charge.

Really?

That that is the full weight of the entire

thing. How many other people could get deal Jonathan Last,

I don’t know. From what I have read up quick on this, unlike medical school, I could have gone to law’s school. I was admitted to many law schools and chose not to go. But my understanding is it is incredibly rare for nonviolent offenders to be charged with this gun charge. Is one of the

I’m sorry. Just really quick. Yeah. You took the lsat?

Fuck. Yeah. I crushed the lsat, dude.

You you took the lsat. You studied for it.

No. I didn’t study for it. I literally walked in and just took it cold.

For fun.

Well, you fucking show off. Okay. Never mind. Let’s move. Let’s keep moving.

One seven before.

As somebody who got a one seventy four on the lsat without studying, what at your assessment is, you know, generally people who are first time offenders who who are addicted to crack and buy a gun and don’t admit that they’re addicted to crack, don’t go to jail for ten years?

Yes. Yes. That that is that is my impression. But here’s the thing. If they had tried Hunter Biden and nailed him for the full twelve year bit and he had gone to San Quentin or the Super Max or Health, but they reopened Alcatraz for him.

Swim out.

I’ve been fine with that.

No. You wouldn’t.

That

would’ve been fine by me. I have no no routine interest in Hunter Biden, what I want is a justice system. I would

not have been fined by that.

What I want is a justice system that functions in a reasonably fair and predictable way. And here we have a prosecutor who had been involved in an active prosecution against a high profile suspect, and he was allowed to do it and he has made his plea deal. And you know what? He doesn’t get the final say. David Weiss doesn’t have the final say on what happens.

The plea deal has to go to the judge and if this is such a sweetheart deal that it betrays the interests of justice, then the judge will reject it. That is a thing which happens every once in a while. And so this you’re like, what is the remedy? This is what I wanna say to to all these the anti anti types out there. Right?

Who, like, well, they you know, there are there are libraries where trans drag queens read stories. I’m like, okay, great. What is the remedy? What do you want to do with that? Right?

And if you don’t like the plea deal Ben

Piro said he wants Republicans only to prosecute Republicans. Oh, wait. That happened.

Well, we had Republican prosecuting a democrat. Is that okay or is that not

good enough for him? Sorry. That was his proposed remedy, keep going.

But hold on. The the the prose remedy, what we’re really getting to is about prosecuting Trump. And so over the past week, you’ve had all these Republicans come out and say, that indictment, pretty bad. Trump, pretty much admitting to it, doesn’t deny it. Okay.

We all pretty much agree on this. If the indictment is true and what he said in interviews is pretty much I did it, what do you think the punishment should be? Not about Hunter Biden. He put Okay. You say, you read the indictment.

What should the punishment be? And just like open ended question. Because if they’re gonna say nothing becomes the present, like, let’s get to that point because we do not know how to punish a president. That’s been the thing since day one with Trump. We do not know how we we have no remedy.

We’re in completely uncharted territory. We’re just sort of leaving it to the legal system. But now we have an indictment. It’s right there. He doesn’t deny it.

He’s on Fox News saying, mhmm, pretty much. Okay. Now what? I would just like

what Amanda, this is just I’m gonna throw in there. This is exactly right. And and and the Beltway insiders that listen to us should have that question ready for Mike Pence in his asshole. Next time. Because Mike Pence has done a million interviews on this.

Nobody does ask them that. Like what should a punishment I think Mike Pence answer is nothing.

No. What is the punish

Right. And that’s what this is all about. Like it just I I mean, there there would be, you know, some podcast jockeys and some Fox people that no matter whether Trump was dead or alive, if it’s a Democratic president are are gonna try to make some big stink about how, you know, it’s never fair. They’re putting on their team Jersey and and Hunter Biden, you know, unless Hunter Biden gets the death penalty, it’s not gonna be fair for some of these people. Right?

Like, like, no matter no matter And then

you gotta go back and do kill and kill or you’re ready practically because.

Right. But the other group, Right? The people that are ostensibly, the heat being told, you know, are are the, you know, modicum of reason, you know, that are the good faith actors that that are not in the MAGotults. To a person, the Tim Scots and the Ben shapiro’s of the world are continuing to just propagate this insane like alternate universe where Joe Biden is like it it it has like his thumb on the scale like is is both dementia ridden and has his thumb on Marrick Garden Marlon’s neck and is telling him, you better get that plea deal. You know, you better prosecute Trump.

When he’s not doing any of that and it’s extremely obvious to anybody that is watching, that he’s not doing any of that. Too a problem. And and it’s the this is, in each case, it’s either been a grand jury or an individual prosecutor who has made these assessments. And maybe the brag case was weak, and you can say that was politicized because it’s brag. I didn’t agree with that, but like at least on that one, you know, that is a political actor.

In every other case, like it this is not like a conspiracy of Democratic elites.

We saw the pictures, the boxes in the bathroom — Yeah.

—

in the ballroom. Like, it’s just getting back some points made earlier. The open stuff that’s happening that is so flipping obvious. And we have to sit around and brought bear like sister, people say brought bear filleted him, took truck down. No, he absolutely did not.

He asked these questions, which is a basic journalistic function, Trump gave him ridiculous answers. Ridiculous answers. Like, oh, I was too busy. Doing what? Like, I need prepared to sit there and be like, do I look like an idiot?

Why should I believe you? I mean, you can be nice to him. But, like, how do you expect me to believe this as a sentient person rather than like, okay. Thanks, sir. Let’s move on to the next question.

You know, does this hurt your electability?

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Get an inside look at Hollywood. With Michael Rosenbaum. Actress Kristen Ritter.

Your parents let you travel by yourself.

It was

a different time.

They

just put you on a train. As a fifteen year old girl, you went to New York.

I went on us. And I did get picked up

at Port Authority. They thought it was a runaway.

What would they do?

They detain you and, like, get people on the phone, and then they finally let you go to your modeling job.

How many times did it happen?

Once or twice.

It just seems like it wouldn’t happen.

It happens. Yeah.

Inside of you with Michael Rosenbaum. Wherever you listen.

This is an outstanding transition. We had on Tuesday night part de of the Trump Brettbear sit down. I I did not watch it. I’m sorry. So I’m here to learn from you.

I’m an audience surrogate. Amanda, tell me what you saw.

I did take some notes. There was, like, probably ten minutes on Trump going off Ron DeSantis, a lot on the COVID policy. Essentially accusing DeSantis of being disloyal, shutting down the state too much, and there were some back and forth on vaccines where Trump kinda tried to take credit for say that he played nice because he didn’t shut down the States, and he gave states the power to do this, and blah blah blah. It was just, like, kind of messy. What else?

A lot of it was Trump. There’s talk about his nonsensical drug policy in which he now wants execute drug dealers, but at the same time, take credit for the first step act. Trump bear asked a fairly obvious question. Where he said, you know, this woman, lovely woman, Alice Johnson, that you free, these other drug dealers, you’ve freed, you’re now saying they should be executed. And Trump is kinda like, I haven’t thought about that.

And, like, truly, he hadn’t. And, again, Bradman has

to be is unbelievable.

What do you mean you haven’t thought this through? Like, you’re thinking about executing people. This is where, like, I can’t. Like, Brent, this is not serious journalism because you have to act like a real person. He is talking to the world like we’re stupid, and everyone goes along with it.

The death penalty bit was so good though. Can we just pause on this for one second? And then you can go back to your report it was as if Tim Russert was there and like, you know, and he had this just really great little nugget that he had pulled deep know, out that the politicians like you got me. And and it was just like the most obvious thing where Brett Bear is like here’s the setup. So you say you want to kill drug dealer And Trump’s like, oh, yes.

We gotta kill drug dealers. I talked to chairman Xi, and and president Xi, and president Xi says that’s how they stopped the — Very strong. — there. And everyone out there and and then something happened and and then drugs drug dealing became illegal there and and no longer to be able to do drugs in China and now the death penalty and we gotta do it for very strong.

There are

no drugs anywhere in China.

Yeah. And then repair is like, okay. Well, but you did the first step act that let some drug dealers out including And and Trump’s like, oh, yes. That was very strong. Alice Johnson better out of there and she barely did anything.

She’s — Preferably.

—

dealt some marijuana And it wasn’t a big deal. She should’ve been in jail and then Brett’s like, well. But she you just said you’d kill drug dealers and and then you said that this lady let out sold marijuana. And Trump, like, literally had pauses for a second. It’s like, you really got the entire rep.

He’s not retroactive. It’s going forward. And we had policy, she wouldn’t have done it. That’s literally what he says. If we had this policy, she wouldn’t have dealt the drugs.

Well, you know, you’re damn right.

She’s just like, boy, this this this guy is a mental giant. That that Brett Bear that the tough questioning Brett Bear was able to corner him with this with this, you know, little mind game. Anyway, I’m sorry, man. I just we just had to take a moment on that.

Someone that doesn’t think through their policy above executing people by, like, one step forward, do not deserve to be taken seriously in an interview. You’d be like, you know what? I think you need to take some time to think this through before you start thinking about killing people. Go away. You’re not you’re not coming here.

But, anyway, but okay. The whole point of this, was to soft enough Trump to make sure that he would participate in the debate that Fox is promoting relentlessly that will happen in August. Right? And so that was the last ten minutes of the interview. Talking about, like, will you debate?

And Trump is so straightforward about this. It’s like, you’re not listening to what he’s saying. Trump flat out told Bret, why would I go on a debate stage and let Aida Hutchinson, he doesn’t say his name right, take shots at me. He has no polling, Trump says, I’m ahead by fifty points. Why would I stand there and let these people take shots at me?

It’s like, that is correct. Duh. And then Brett Bear is like, well, don’t you think you’ve been treated very fairly? It’s like, you’re not listening to what he’s saying. Like, I laughed so hard.

And Joe kinda says, Well, this is kind of a puff piece, Brett. It’s like totally called him out. It’s like, yes. This is nothing but a sugar sweet

—

Jeez.

—

piece of bait to get you there. And then they wrap it up, and just by promoing the future debate. And it’s like, he just told you he’s not going to come if it’s not good for him. And this is the whole thing about the CNN town hall. It’s like they’re just trying to bait him to come to the debates and get them ratings, and nobody learned anything from twenty seen or they did, and they don’t care because they put their ratings and their paychecks ahead of absolutely everything.

The show me ness at the end, Amanda. I think you really hit the nail net. It was gross. I mean, Brett did it a couple times, like, challenge him. It wasn’t a total.

It wasn’t Sean handled the interview, but, like, shumminess.

Thank you for

that care

for Yeah. Right there tougher than Hannity.

Yeah. But I but he was laughing at Trump a couple at a couple times. And you knew that Trump didn’t didn’t think it was too tough of an interview because he didn’t give Red Bear the Mica treatment with his insults if you if you know what I mean.

No. The last question was actually, how’s Melania handling all this?

Yeah. Literally, it’s the last question. How’s Melania you doing?

Wouldn’t you say your biggest fault president Trump is that you care Too much?

What what one thing I’d I feel I need to mention because I was mad at myself after the Nichols after me and Tom did that recap on YouTube over of the Monday.

I like that by the way.

The first part.

That’s cool.

Part one. Thank you. Yeah. No. It was fun.

Subscribe to our YouTube page if you haven’t already. We we did, like, thirty five minutes. And I forgot. I’ll do my notes after. And I did not mention that Trump explicitly suggested that the feds are planting classified documents in his boxes.

You know, along with his golf cleats in his pants.

They tapped his ones like, why wouldn’t they do that too?

Well, don’t leave them in the toilet. Right.

And it’s just like, this is the kind of thing. Where I I just think it’s always important to step back because if literally any other politician, through time and memorial, had ever said that the feds are planting classified information in my dot in in my files with no evidence that is a massive front page New York Times scandal. Like that is just not something that politicians have had did and there were times when the FBI did plant things, you know, back in the bad old days. But in modern times, like you can’t even imagine like, I don’t know, Bob Dole being like the feds are planning stuff on me. I mean like this shit is crazy or Al Gore or like this stuff is insane.

It’s like total lunacy It is it is undermining our institutions, it is an absurd lie, and yet even me with my TBS, spent thirty five minutes going back over the thing, and I don’t mention it because he’s so full of shit. And this is why these things are an exercise in futility. And that like that’s the point that I’m getting to. Right? It’s like there is no way there’s actually no and there’s some best practices, as you’ve written in a column JBL, like there are things you can do better than others, like not having a cheering section.

For example, great job But, you know, they’re best practices. But really, at the end of the day, there’s It’s very I think it may be impossible If not that extremely challenging to deal with someone that is just a river of shit. Every time they open their mouth is a lie, and is a false accusation. And so like what, you know, how are people supposed to process? And and I think that’s what happens with his with those voters.

Here’s the problem. There is no institution in American journalism which would be comfortable being as adversarial as you need to be in order to responsibly give Trump access to your airwaves. Yeah. MSNBC. And John

Swan is, like, the only one that you have. That that’s about it.

Right? And nobody else, NPR, MSNBC, they they do not have the stomach to do what you would have to do because it’s awfully uncomfortable. Right? And it’s Man, it’s bad.

Well, that’s why I like I will say I like what you did last night, Tim, because I think that is a better way for people to parse the information. A couple of people watch it. Like, you discuss it. No one needs to watch Trump live anymore. He has lost the privilege.

Yeah.

I wish people would quit giving him life coverage. They’re going to But like the way to view these events I think is through responsible parties now and not the direct access for people who abuse that live privilege so flagrantly.

Yeah. No. We look. We make Tim stick his hand into a jar. And if he pulls out the black egg, then he has to watch Trump for us.

You know, that’s like fear factor. You know, I’ve gotta eat the tarantula. I have one other note.

Yeah.

And and I’m about to I’m about to guy quasi compliment Trump Confluence the wrong word. But but I I think this is important to under it’s important to understand the nature of the enemy. Yep. Okay? And and and I think that sometimes we can getting to a place where his material is is such word salad.

And like certain times, he’s out there just blabbering nonsense. And and there are specific policy issues where he knows nothing. He has these half baked ideas like the death penalty that he hasn’t thought through one step. Like, in in these senses, he is an idiot, and like he is deranged in a lot of ways. But he has certain skills, and the the Ron DeSantis attack is something that like just as a practitioner of the craft of politics.

I look back and I’m like I wish some of my candidates were as good at retaining the minutiae of their little petty the petty fights and the inter candidate disputes as trumpets.

Oh god.

Like, Trump might not be able to tell you three facts about, you know, all the regulatory reforms that he brags about. Like, he was just the nuclear regulation. Right. Yeah. He doesn’t know the nuclear triad.

Right? He knew the polling difference between Ron DeSantis and Adam Putnam the day that they met each other, you know, the the day that they competed against each other. He knew the week by week DeSantis versus Gillum breakdown He knew the day that Ron DeSantis shut down the beaches and Right? Like, he the apo book stuff, he learns. So so he he has other mental issues.

But but he is sharp on that and and a lot and, you know, I came that’s like Jeb. I think Joe Biden is like this. Who who sometimes think that like that stuff isn’t important. I think they rightly think that stuff is important, they don’t retain it. Right?

And I worry about this in a debate setting.

But, no, I think that they think it’s unseemly.

They think it’s unseemly.

To bring out. It’s unseemly to bring out all the time. But another point where Trump was, like, refreshingly honest, Brett Bear kept asking him, like, well, Ron DeSantis, like, you know, why are you beating up on him so much? You’re spending more time attacking him than you spent in the twenty to midterm elections, like, why? You know, kinda intimating people don’t like that.

Why are you attacking the republican team? In terms of just looks at him and he’s like, because he’s number two. I’m way ahead of everybody, but he’s number two. Like, if he drops down to number three or four, I’ll shut up about him and attack who’s number two again. Like, he and I think voters that want to win really like that.

Because Trump is essentially saying, you know, it’s not that personal. He’s just the one that threatens me, so I’m gonna go after him. Duh. And he made it seem as common sense as, you know, the sky is blue.

Two questions before we move off of this. First off, did you guys think that Trump was effective when going after Trump? So you Tim, you say it’s all you know, he’s got it all at his fingertips. Do you think it was delivered in an effective way? Do you think it’ll move any Fox viewers?

Going after Ron DeSantis?

Yeah. The way in which she’s doing

it.

I’m not sure about that because he was kind of on the defensive in these areas. I think it was in a different space where he was going off in areas where he has strength versus Santos. He was like finding to the things that Brett was asking. So I’m not sure that he, like, gained any ground with this Santa’s viewers. And and but I will say this.

He is prepared for that for for for taking incoming for DeSantis. If he does end up having to be on the stage, Like it is the Santos is gonna have to put on his big boy wellies, you know, like and I just don’t know if he’s capable of it, and so I was I was in yeah. I was impressed in that since impressed is not the right word, but you know what I mean? I I thought that that part, the parrying back about the obvious attacks that the Sanders will put on him. He he is like, it’s the one thing that he is has actually done research on.

Right? Like, he knows he knows what he’s gonna say and all that stuff. Just as a general statement. This is a thing that I can’t quite figure, and it just might be the paradox that is why nobody can beat him in a prime a republican primary, which I hope is wrong. But I I watched the interview and it’s just like, for all the reads we’ve all already said.

To Amanda’s point about just how nat, you know, how authentic he is. He just says you what, you know, he’s like, yeah, I’m only attacking because he’s in a second. But anytime he’s under attack, I I try to imagine myself as my MAGa Uncle. And I’m like, I think they like it. I think they like it.

Like like the more the harder bread is you know, in certain ways, the more Trump’s like, oh yeah, this establishment’s dude just coming for me and and so I just think as a total performance you know, I think that with swing voters, horrible. I judge him as a deranged lunatic. But I don’t know. I I I bet if and we have if we had won a serious focus groups down there and watch it with me. My guess is that that most people it help it would have helped him with that crowd, the MAGa.

Well, also he’s on the attack. Right? He’s always attacking Ron DeSantis, and Ron DeSantis kind of hide behind his pack that takes these bank shots at Trump, and it’s weak. People like to see people like debate. They like the fight.

They like the conflict. And if DeSantis doesn’t fight, The ball goes to Trump automatic point.

Amanda, do you think there is a polling number at which the anti anti establishment that has glommed and circled on to DeSantis. At which point, they abandon ship and start looking for somebody else to be viable.

Well, you

think they are pot committed to him no matter what. You think just right back to Trump?

Yeah. They wanna win. I mean, like, it does go back to who’s gonna get me over the finish line. And that was the reason for the Ron DeSantis bubble. It happened when Trump was threatened, not because they had actually soured on Trump, not because they’re actually gonna turn on Trump forever, I mean, even Chris Christie, you are all happy about what he’s doing now, didn’t do this when he would have risked his own political position.

Now this is safe to do. Right? So it’s Trump or DeSantis at this point?

I will just say, I I would I I think DeSantis will continue to be strong because his favorability continues to be strong despite Trump’s attacks. But if for whatever reason to say this tanked, I think it’s a split group. I think some go back to Trump and then now there there’s like a new wave of people who crossed the rubicon know that Charlie Sykes written about in the newsletter, the never again. It’s right, the bill bars and the Chris Christie’s and like that and the Coke They go to Doug burger route. They’ll go for Doug.

You know, they’ll try to find somebody else. There’ll be a category people would try to find someone else.

But I listen to Charlie Sykes interview. I hate to keep going back to Chris Christie, but he is sort of emblematic at the moment. And Charlie asked him, you know, what are you gonna do if you don’t get the nomination? You said to World Trump, and he’s kinda like, well, I’ll just leave the top blank.

Good. I

mean, sideline is fine. You vote for Biden or sideline? Like, the that’s what it is.

Better than writing in Edmond Burke.

I agree.

I will just say that there’s other view. That’s what I’m saying. There’s this dividing line. Like, Tim Scott answers that question. I’m for I’m for Charlie.

Right. And so I just I think that within that group, you know, of of the people that are challenging now, there are the de Santa, you know, I think that they’re just are are two categories. I think would would fisher.

So I wanna use this to transition to RFK junior. I think people don’t fully appreciate how well he’s doing in Democratic polls. If we were to draw an analogy between Trump and Ron DeSantis, and then Biden and RFK Ron DeSantis is only running a little bit ahead of RFK Junior. Like, if, you know, he’s ahead of him.

Santos to r f k. He’s doing your vote. DeSantis doesn’t.

He’s a little bit ahead of him. Be but so we’re Trump is pulling it like fifty four Biden’s pulling it sixty Ron DeSantis

is there are certain states where DeSantis is popping, and and RfK junior is thing, but in the national polls.

In the national polls, we’re RFP Junior is sitting between twelve and twenty. And, you know, so Biden’s lead over him is roughly forty points, and Trump’s lead over to Santos is roughly like thirty one points. Thirty two points. And and for everybody else in the Republican race, like Tim Scott wishes that he could be as close to Trump. As RFP Junior is to Joe Biden.

Oh my goodness. Think about that for a moment.

Okay.

Yeah. If he ever did that, it’d be the high watermarkers. It would be right. The greatest.

So I wrote about this today. I am sort of I think that the RfK Junior is sort of a curious thing, and then Amanda, you and I started talking about it. And you were like, I felt very stupid after writing my thing because I was like, alright. Now Amanda’s why did I feel like I had made this discovery? So this is the move.

Right? This is what we now have happening in the Democratic Party once a cycle.

Yeah. I don’t know what I told you that I thought was brilliant, but I’ll tell you what I have I have on my mind. He’s not a Democrat. He’s a plant, and so the play is to try to run-in the Democratic primary. He won’t give them the ballot.

Maybe he wins Maybe he wins Iowa. Who knows? He gets something, he gets some kind of standing. He doesn’t win. He withdraws from the race and throws his support behind Trump.

Yeah.

That’s the one or two percent.

This is what Tulsi was.

Right? The whole point is to gain nut job, Democrats and Republicans who are in love with with Camelot Ron DeSantis was rigged against me. They wouldn’t let me compete. Therefore, we’re gonna get behind Trump who’s gonna restore integrity in our left like, God knows what he’s gonna say. And then he’ll take the anti vax vote that Santa’s had, give it to Trump.

The end.

There’s probably a q anon prophecy still

in the past. Getting to the nuts of things. She realized this is a podcast you know, we’re trying to fill an hour here. You’re just, like, giving TikTok answers.

You could just go, like, five minutes.

You’re just, like, boom. You’re just, like, boom. This is the nuts of it. I concur with Amanda. There’s an interesting news story.

This is a brief aside since we’re Secret Podcast and I need to fill air because Amanda’s answers are so short and good. Did you see that RFP thought that Pampers, Colosades? You know about Pampers? Anybody I

I those those things you throw on the ground that make a noise the fourth of July. By the way, my son said he threw a bunch of those outside the step and forgot they were there. Guess who stepped on going out for a run at like six AM

Oh, no. Sorry about No.

I thought I was dead. I thought I was shot.

Is what did you do to that child? We had a follow we had a parenting podcast. I said the boy

or the girl did you which one was it?

He did he forgot.

Why didn’t even ask if it was the girl? Of course,

it was the boy.

It wasn’t

What is it

popper? Pompers. Do you have a guess, Jevia?

Is it drugs?

Honestly, I was gonna ask I was gonna guess the same thing as Amanda.

Not really drugs. It’s like a it’s popular in gay sex. It’s like a you know, it’s a little snifter. It’s

like a snifter.

I guess so. It’s But

a sniffer.

You sniff something before you do?

It’s just

like Do stuff?

Yeah. It’s like during sex, it just kind of like adds to the experience.

Do you do you drink? You

want, I’m just gonna leave it there. You do not drink it. Do you Why don’t you drink it?

Do you do you I

don’t think it is only for gay people. I think I think it’s huffing. It’s like huffing.

Is it legal? Yeah.

It’s like huffing. It is legal. So it’s sold over the counter, and it’s like we’re huffing kind

of So is r f is RFP junior explaining

to voters what poppers are? I’m not recommending.

Click up here, it gets your popper.

I’m not I’m not recommending it. I’m just saying it is it is an over the counter.

But sponsorship opportunities

A legal narcotic. But because it’s popular in the gay community, Why does RfK know about it? I don’t know. I guess, you know, he probably has a lot of metropolitan friends. And so he just threw that out there as a theory for aids Like, there are some issues with that.

I I guess there’s a correlation caused issue there. I think. Talking about frogs.

I didn’t know. Was that the frog thing?

Yeah. A little same. And then he also he also was reiterating the the Alex Jones thing that they were doing tests. They were doing tests on the frogs. The government was making the frogs gay.

And and RfK was saying that those same tests were kind of part of the reason so many kids are trans now. We are they giving the frogs poppers?

I bet those are the people

claiming documents. That’s like two separate theories. Two separate theories. But the Pampers theory, I I just I think there’s some obvious holes, but Africa I think would be a big one. I mean, a lot of a lot of aids in Africa.

I’m not I’m not sure how popular poppers are are, you know, in sub saharan Africa. But anyhoo. In case you were wonder in case you were a listener who was wondering, is this possible, could it really be the poppers? I I don’t there’s some holes in the theory. So that’s r f k.

He’s he’s he’s out there. I think that Amanda’s point, which is more relevant to to the political matter at hand and your and your newsletter, Shaveel. I the key insight is that he will be supporting the Republican nominee. He’s not a Democrat. He’s out there advancing literal Alex Jones conspiracy theories.

There is not an Alex Jones Lane in the Democratic primary. And I I think the No. There is

There is

a lane.

There are still voters for the Democratic Party to lose. This is what I was trying to hammer home on this. Like, if Democrats thinks that they have bled off all of the Obama to Trump voters that they were gonna bleed off, I I believe that that is mistaken, that there are still more of those people to be bled off.

Yeah. Well,

I agree with that. And I looked at the number and I think a lot of them are are voters color, but there are also still white working class voters out there. People and the thing always bugs me is when when libs are like, we need everyone to vote. I’m like, do you realize the number one group of demographic group of people that don’t vote is non college white men. So I don’t Do we need everyone to vote?

So maybe we don’t. Anyway, I I was looking at the stats. David Frum had a good had a good thread. About about RfK that I’d recommend people look at. But and he was making an opposite point of this which is like voters love vaccines which is true.

Voters do love vaccines like anti vax vote is not a majority not even close to majority position. It’s a huge minority position. But on the graph that he that he posted, I was interested to see that there were seven percent of Democrats that were anti vax. And there is your so so your Kennedy vote is basically people that are just expressed that think he’s John Kennedy people that are expressing unhappiness with Joe Biden but are gonna come back around. But the concerning group is that seven percent.

Right?

A lot bigger than Jill style.

Lose from from that group. And and and I think that is, you know what I worry about. The other just little fun parallel game JBL that’s worth mentioning on this, which you said and I’m curious your answer today. Which is if we pulled r f k in the net that national republican primary field. Where would you Where do you think he’d he’d be?

Third. Definitely third.

Wow.

And I honestly I think with the I think he’d be very very close to DeSantis. I think he’d be at like fifteen, seventeen percent.

Amanda, well, you just take that in. I wanna hear your opinion. You take that in. I’m gonna give you one other piece of anecdote.

Go ahead.

When I tweeted this out earlier, A gentleman follower from New Hampshire replied and they said, I have seen two in New Hampshire. Not one, two, Trump signs Truck twenty twenty four science where people wrote in RFKadia — It’s working.

—

underneath it as the ticket. So that’s just a report from the field.

Why wouldn’t he be a running mate?

He’d be a great pick. I mean, at first

of all. Trump Kennedy?

But it’s like I got

it down. You can you can see Trump who is obsessed with branding just loving the idea of Trump in a larger font over the name Kennedy. Right? I’ve conquered America’s premier political dynasty. Alright, Amanda.

Give me your number.

We’re we’re My head wants to say three percent, but I’m puking. Like, I I guess it’s bad. I don’t know. I’d have to

More than Nikki and Tim Scott put together. Correct?

Yeah. Yeah.

The question is, is he in Vivec territory or is he in DeSantis territory? That’s closer to DeSantis. Ahead of it.

Probably between

He’s ahead of all the other people.

That is wild. Hundred percent.

I know.

Well, why don’t we why don’t we put him on the Republican ballot then in the primary?

Oh, if only we could. Alright. Amanda, you have some personal news to share with the class.

I do. I’m training for the g f k fifty. That’s not it. But that is true. Yeah.

The fifty? Oh my gosh. You’re going right to Ultra’s

I joined the groups. Yeah. It’s insane. It’s happening.

I’m lucky to just make it one time around the track.

It’s

gonna be awesome. But also, I in leaving the bill work to take a job in the communications shop at Protect democracy, which is an awesome awesome group that’s been doing really great innovative legal activism, stuff on the tech front. You know, I’ll be talking all about it. But I don’t I just want you guys to know. I don’t feel like I’m leaving because this is all in the same space.

And I’ve had such a good time here. I hope I’ll be back. I hope I can do more projects with you guys. So I just I don’t really feel like I’m going anywhere. But I am getting a new job.

So that’s that.

So when Amanda told me, I was instantly shell shocked and sad, and then I asked where are you going? I’m said, protect democracy. I went instantly to happy because I know a bunch of people over there, and I love them. They’re all good people. The group is amazing.

It’s gonna be they’re gonna be blessed to have you, and I think you’re gonna love it over there. And and also, you know, you’re not peering into some private corporation where you have to become anonymous, you can still come and hang with us all the time. I hope.

Yeah. I think So

it’s the best of all worlds. Yeah. Think Tim?

I love Protect democracy. I have three exit interview questions for you. What was like was that it though? Like you’re because for me, like the idea of going back into comms or it’s like, you know, I’m selling toilet paper or whatever is soul crushing and so like for you. Is that Yeah.

I

Yeah. You know what I mean? I’m not gonna go to Clorox and and whatever, be the VP of Comms. I would, you know, like, what? I I just was that part of it?

Like, I I assume. Right? Because we haven’t talked about this. I also like photography but I haven’t asked you.

Yeah. I mean, I guess Got you.

Exactly.

I had always and I talked with Sarah like a year and a half ago. Like, kind of, you know, she’s asking, what do you want? I do eventually. And I always kind of had in the back of my mind, I’d like to do comms work again somewhere. I mean, my time with at the cruise shop like, my career on that front kind of got cut short and abrupt way.

Like, I was having a great time at the cruise office, The reason I didn’t say that on there longer is that they wanted everybody to move down to Texas to work at Texas headquarters. And I didn’t wanna sit in the senate shop at two kids under two. Didn’t make the move, ended up going to CNN and doing that whole crazy roller coaster, which was great. You know, and I thought I would stay just doing media stuff, media stuff, But then, in the end of twenty twenty one, I got the offer to renew my contract at CNN, and I kinda just decided I had kind of maximized all my opportunities on that front for what they were asking in terms of what I could do and other things I couldn’t do, And I just kind of like, had it come to Jesus moment, like, is this what I wanna be doing five years from now? Like, keep going to the green room, keep doing this thing.

And then you guys are doing all kinds of great stuff at Bulwark. I was like, okay. I will double down on that. But always in the back of my mind, I was like, I feel like I have unfinished communications work. I love writing, but I do love working with a team to make message and, you know, make points and do all that kind of stuff too.

So, like, I’m just super blessed because I’ve been able to be with good people no matter where I go. I feel like in this, you know, pro democracy states through this really really hard time, and this was just a really unique fit. I wasn’t looking for it. I actually was looking on job boards. I wasn’t poached.

I was looking on job boards for a friend of mine. That was looking for a job. And I saw this one and I was like, this group does all the things I like. It’s elections, it’s investigations, it’s protecting you know, democracy. Clearly, it’s in the name.

They’re doing cool stuff with, you know, tech in terms of, like, making sure databases are secure. Like, to lots of neat stuff and lots of lawyers who are pushing the envelope and representing people who need representation for free like the January sixth committee witnesses, like those poor election workers in Georgia, like, it’s just and every time I look in the news and be like, oh, that’s a really good fight. They were in the middle of it. And so it’s just one of those things.

Alright. I have two more exit interviews, my hard one and a fun one. Here’s the hard one. You mentioned Ted Cruz. Okay?

I’m curious, like, this was I was so excited when you came. Right? This is always our shtick. You’re on the tight cruise side, and I was always like in the Hunt mini side. And I’m just wondering, so now we have this distance of how many years it’s been, feels like a million.

And I’m just wondering, like, what do you think now, like, differently about than you thought then? Like, what do you think the same about that you thought as as back then?

Well, I mean, the main things I’ve changed my mind about have to do I mean, mainly with the I will say, you know, I was always very proud of my work in the cruise shop. I we had great people. I liked working with their you know, some people, you know, even though we’re they may not be speaking to me, I still think kindly of them, even if we don’t speak anymore, of that time there. And I really felt strongly about that, probably until January six. I understood why crews supported Trump, you know, gotta represent accents and all that.

But really the breaking point and I you know, I didn’t write anything about cruise until after January six. And the breaking point really were the people that turned in November and December of twenty twenty that were going along with the election. So people who I didn’t think ever would you know, I got a lot of private emails that were bad, you know, from people I worked with. And it’s like, you know, there’s there’s just no going back from this. And watching him go down to the floor and essentially lay the predicate where people then mod the floor.

Right? Like, if Ted Cruz decided not to object, they may not have come that day, so the same way I feel about Mike Pence. If Mike Pence has said, There’s nothing I can do in December. It might not have happened. And so I just I feel really sick about that.

And a number of us, you know, we’re like, how did we not say this? How did we not see it? And it’s just like it still makes me sick today. It’s like, I did it wasn’t there. Something changed, and there’s no going back from that.

So that No.

Okay. So this is happy talk now. And what was your favorite thing about the ball that you did at the ball work? Not about the rest of us. What was your favorite thing that you did?

People wanna go back and be like, amandable work time. I’m gonna pull back out something you wrote or A podcast you did.

I mean, I would just say, like

Friendshiphip you made.

Mean, just the daily of just being in the fight together. I mean, obviously, I really felt like I, you know, not to keep going back to January six. But, like, you guys let me I will well, I would say in the summer, going into the election, really digging into the conspiracy stuff, how this is gonna play out. And, I mean, the number one thing is I think people think I get like assigned stuff to write. You guys let me write whatever I want it.

I mean, really, I’d make a pitch I’d write it. And I think people who I talked to outside this have a hard time believing that, which I kinda find insulting because I think, like, I didn’t come up with this on my own.

That’s bullshit.

But that’s the thing I am most proud of and happy about is that everyone trusted each other to write what you think, say what you think, and go for it, and it was cool, and it will be cool, and it still is cool.

I’m gonna miss you.

No. I’m not going anywhere.

I know. You have to come to all our Monday Zoom meetings anyway, so we can see you. Gotta stay in the slack too. Can’t have you leave Slack.

Oh, really?

Oh, I

thought you guys could disappear me on Friday.

No. We’re gonna save you. Please leave Slack for your own for your own good.

Alright, guys. Good show, long show. Amanda, we we love you so much and are so happy for you and and grateful for building this thing with us. Come in on Sunday. We got a really good Sunday show.

Tim and I sat with Reed Hoffman, founder of Linkedin, and we talked a lot about AI and some spicy stuff about Elon Musk too. It’s a it’s a really good really smart show.

Which I googled and I know what they are now. I understand it. While you guys were talking, I was farting about things.

Oh, boy. Hey, hit subscribe. Give us five stars. We’ve just gone over a thousand reviews on Apple Podcast. I’d like to get to two thousand pretty quickly.

Let’s get on that guys. And we will see you on Sunday. Bye.

The Bulwark podcast focuses on political analysis and reporting without partisan loyalties.

Real sense of deja boo sprinkled on our PTSD. So things are going well, I guess,

every Monday through Friday, Charlie Sykes speaks with guests about the latest stories from inside Washington and around the world.

You document in a very compelling way. All of the positive things have come out of this. But it also feels like we have this massive hang of.

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