Adam Kinzinger: Knives Out in the Nutcase Caucus

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Welcome to the Bulwark podcast on this Trump Restoration Day for all of you who celebrate As I wrote in my newsletter, I’m guessing that the day is is starting at least partly sunny and bright down in Mar a Lago with the exception of the whole Terry Lake Tang, which we’re going to talk about. And of course later today, when we have a lot of things going on in the news today, later today, the The House Republican caucus gets to vote on Kevin McCarthy, the beginning of Kevin McCarthy’s trip to the lowest circle of political hell. And meanwhile, at about nine o’clock eastern time tonight, Donald Trump will announce that he is not done with us yet. This is what Peter Baker writes in the New York times. There will be no golden escalator this time, but neither will there be mocking GIFAZ, or can you believe this eye rolling as Donald Trump is expected to kick off another presidential campaign tonight.

The world has changed rather drastically since his first. Whatever else has thought of his attempted comeback, it will not be dismissed is an implausible joke, but he’s doing this at a time, and now I’m adding, not Peter Baker. At a time when his political standing is at the lowest point among fellow Republicans since January sixth, of course, we remember how that turned out. More Republicans are willing to distance themselves to criticize him. He still faces lots of legal problems Probably the most I catch up on the wall inducing story of the day besides the defeat of Kerry Lake has to be these new polls that are coming out, the club for growth out with a poll showing him being harassed by Rhonda Santos in places like Iowa and New Hampshire.

You can dismiss club for growth because they are, you know, pretty hacky. On the other hand, there are other polls including that you go polls showing that Trump is not the front runner in a poll out of Texas. But of course, there is a sort of feeling that we’ve been here before, so to break all of this down. Welcome back to the podcast, congressman. Adam Kinzinger.

Good morning, Adam. How are you? Hey. It’s good to be with you. How are you doing?

Well, it is wild stuff, and I wanna talk about Kevin’s day today. Get get some insight into all of that. I have to admit I want you to explain the whole Matt Gates versus Marjorie Taylor Green thing because that was not on my score hard. I I didn’t really have that. The nut job cock is breaking up on itself.

But can we just talk for just just take a deep breath here under Harry Lake going down? Mean, this is Donald Trump wakes up this morning, and the queen of Afghanistan has been defeated. The most talented political figure of of a generation has been defeated. This is the day that Trump is going to announce. A week after, you know, that disappointing midterm.

And then the morning after his girl, his best girl, Carrie Lake goes down.

So just go. Oh, man. He’s gotta be like, if you think about Donald Trump from the perspective of, The only thing he cares about is himself. This is like because I think he was well, I’ll tell you, actually, who’s probably the happiest right now is the least stefonic. Because she’s now in the running for, you know, Trump’s VP.

And this usurper Kerry Lake was gonna come and take over her position. And so I think she’s happy. I think Trump is extremely miserable. And by the way, you know, it’s obviously not too early for all the conspiracies to start. And now thankfully it’s not it doesn’t seem like it’s it’s manga wide or or alt right wide about somehow that this election was still in Arizona, but I think Mike Flynn today was out with, you know, this is, of course, stolen.

In fact, if it wasn’t stolen, I’ll never talk about this again and you know, the my polo guy saying that it was the computers. So obviously, this is a this is a huge blow. And I do think that, you know, had she won she would be a real force in the in the Republican Party in a bad way because she does have that ability to kind of, you know, in a polished politician way, you know, bring the anger of people forward. So it’s a it’s a bad day for Trump. It’s a great day for the United States of America.

Jesus and freedom.

Well, and, naturally, of course, she’s taking it well. She tweeted at one of the greatest self owns of all time last night when when they called the race for Kitty Hub, she tweeted, Arizona’s no BS when they see it. Well, yes, apparently, they do, miss

Lake.

No one should be surprised if, you know, one of the nation’s number one election denialist denies this election or decides to make this ground zero. I mean, think about it. I mean, this is the Trump playbook. You you you need to change the narrative and look, she’s been gearing up for this for two years. Why would she not march on Phoenix or whatever?

Yeah. And I’ll tell you it’s interesting because, like, So she it’s this anger stuff. So the thing I’ve always wondered about Carrie Lake. I don’t know the answer to it, but is this an act because, you know what, two two years ago or something, she was some left winger. And was she radicalized by the Internet during COVID, or is this all an act?

And I think either way we’re about to find out, but it’s it doesn’t work. And, you know, I think the interesting thing is like when Liz watching this kind of freak out when she, you know, said that people get no BS when they see it. It’s like, that’s what a a tweet that you tweet through emotion and you don’t see how people are gonna eagerly respond to that. That’s that. And then, of course, I think with October twenty eighth, she’s she put out something, basically, she sent a letter to Liz Cheney.

I know. You know, thanking her for her in kind donation. And then yesterday, Liz just goes, you’re welcome. And it was, oh, man. It was classic.

That’s Liz Cheney like revenge serve cold.

This owned the the Internet today in case anybody has missed this. It it was very much cold deal. Yeah. This is October twenty eight. Kerry Lake tweets to Liz Cheney.

Thank you, Liz Cheney for this contribution. And then last night, Moments after they called the race. You’re welcome. Kerry Lake is music. This was just a thing of beauty.

Okay. So, Adam Kinzinger, as we step back and everybody’s got their their hotcakes. I think you know, I certainly expected that Republicans were gonna win the House. I I figured they would win it by a pretty substantial margin. It looks like they will win it, but by the narrowest possible margins.

Democrats, you know, are actually positioned not only to hold the Senate, but maybe to increase their majority, they picked up a couple of governorships. So thirty five thousand foot perspective, what happened last week?

Look at it. Took me by surprise. I heard I heard Bill Crystal saying, oh, you know, it’s not gonna be as bad as everybody says. I’m like, Bill, Yeah. We’ve been so wrong, but he was so right.

Yeah. Good job, Crystal. You know, like, I thought it was gonna be a red wave. You know, I was buying into what everybody else was. I think what happened is a couple of things.

So, you know, to toot the January six committees horn for a second, even though people didn’t vote based on that, you know, it’s not like they went there and they said, I’m gonna vote based on what the January sixth committee said. I think that that did a ton to just kind of put that underlying fear for democracy, that underlying kind of something’s not right feeling, in which on top of that, you can layer things like the abortion decision. Things like Paul Pelosi, I think, actually had an impact. That attack on Paul Pelosi, And so I think you take the abortion decision, you take January six, Paul Pelosi, these kinds of things plus You know, the fact that probably when you start talking about red waves, there’s some Republicans that just don’t bother to go vote. And I guess, in hindsight, obviously, we should have seen that it wasn’t gonna be as big as we thought.

You can always say that in hindsight. But I think this was a huge repudiation, not just to the Mongoing and the party, but to the Republican party, saying, you know, look guys, it’s the lack of courage is the thing that is much devastating as anything. Yeah, we can’t do anything about Donald Trump calling himself a Republican. We can’t do anything about the fact that there’s thirty percent of self identified Republicans who support Donald Trump. You know, back in Illinois, we always had this guy who was a a Nazi.

That ran for Congress as a Republican. And there was nothing we could do about it. You just have to get the number of signatures and you end up on the ballot. Right? But when the party has totally collapsed and acquiesced, you know, that’s that’s a huge on on the Republican Party.

And if we wake up, you know, we can come back from this. If we don’t, if this ends up DNA, even a descent I’m sure we’ll get into this, but even a descent is versus Trump battle, It’s not taking the right lessons out, which is, you know, hey, look, the instruments of government are not supposed to be used as your personal toy. I wanna

pick up on a couple of things that you said there because in respect to that this election was about Dobbs denialism as an election denialism, extremism and and Donald and Donald Trump. You know, but I do think and I heard you say this the other day that that the January sixth Committee and the the the revelations. I think did lay the groundwork for what happened here because I I think that there was the the underlying anxiety about just how scary this Republican party was, how dangerous it was. You know, people may have been disgusted by the by inflation. They may have been, you know, concerned about crime.

They may have been appalled by what’s been happening at the border, but ultimately, millions of Americans went into the polling booth and said, yeah, you know, for all of the problems I might have with Joe Biden and the Democrats, the Republicans are just much much scarier. And I also think that you’re right, that the Paul Pelosi attack might have rekindled those concerns that that it basically brought it all back that we are dealing with a party that, you know, is is is is deeply unserious, not just about policy, but but unserious about just fundamental decency. And I think that there was that sense among Republicans in the last few weeks that they didn’t need to be responsible. They didn’t need to talk about issues. They they didn’t need to push back against the crazy because they were just gonna wind so big.

The wind was at their back. There would be absolutely no consequences and this this ought to bring them up awfully short to realize that maybe the rules could not change as much as they thought they had changed. I mean,

again, so here’s where and I I know you share kind of this this fear, which is I have been here before, where I have said, this is certainly the moment that everybody’s gonna wake up the chief among it was January seventh. If you’d have told me on January seventh that we would be where we are today, I literally wouldn’t have believed you. Because there was no human being, human decency, human anything that could eventually deny one of the most video, pictured, discussed, disgusting, events in American history, and people can deny it. Now, that’s where we are today. So I will say with that full, you know, all the all the caveats that it may just take losing power.

To actually have an effect. The question though, because I think the bigger thing with with this, like, idea of decency and are people moving

on and

I’ll let you in a little insight on, you know, what I know about politicians and I think it’s what you know about politicians too and probably most people listening. I think it’s less about thinking, are we gonna lose power in the Republican Party? It’s less about, like, are we gonna hold the house if Donald Trump is there? And I think it’s more about what makes my life more comfortable when I’m out in public. When I go to the Lincoln Day dinner with the Republican Party, what is gonna cause me less consternation?

Is it supporting Donald Trump? Or is it, you know, DeSantis? Or is it somebody else? That’s the appeal that DeSantis has to so many Republicans in Republican elections at least is they can say, Oh, you know, I look, I don’t like Donald Trump’s tone, but I’m still cool. I’m still cool.

I’m with DeSantis. I’m still cool. I still wanna own the lips. I still wanna be a angry yellower. I still, you know, use culture war.

It’s just time we move on from Trump. That’s why DeSantis is so attractive to members of Congress because they can still have the Trump base. It’s like, yeah, I get your point a little bit and it’s not uncomfortable because one of the most uncomfortable things you can do as an elected republican is go to a Lincoln Day dinner and have everybody there pissed off at you. And I think look at what is gonna make life most comfortable for these members of Congress, and that’s probably where they’re gonna go. Howard

Bauchner: So this is

very interesting because, of course, the the big question is, is this going to be different? Is this going to be different from all of the other times? I mean, a Republican party that that didn’t break with him after Helsinki, Charlottesville, etcetera, after the Instagram? Also, you know, when Trump announces today, he’s going to be thinking that this is going to be a return back to, you know, two thousand fifteen and two thousand sixteen. You know, that he can run as the outsider, he will attack everybody, he will destroy them, he will give them nicknames, and then everybody will cave.

But the question is, And and you’ve raised a really interesting point. And I don’t know, by the way, I don’t know the answer to this question either. It does feel that the blowback to his attacks on DeSantis are very different than the reaction to his attacks on, say, Scott Walker or narcole rubio or Ted Cruz back in two thousand fifteen. I mean, they had support, but they didn’t have the kind of base crowd that Ron DeSantis has right now. My good friend Steven Hayes was on meet the press.

And he said, you know, this is different. I’m getting, you know, reports from Republicans all over the country that that they grassroots is mad. They are upset at what Trump is doing. So you are seeing this movement in the polls. Do you think this is going to be different?

Well,

look, I again, I do think this is going to be somewhat different. And I think you know, it’s not necessarily the end of Donald Trump, but I do think this is giving some people kind of courage maybe to to say what would never have been spoken prior. And I think part of pairing it with this, not just losing the election, is the fact that Donald Trump has gotten increasingly unhinghed. I mean, truly, you know, the young Ken sounds Chinese, doesn’t it? I mean, it’s like, literally, that’s a first grade joke.

You know, back when you’re in first grade, it’s like, you know, the stupidest thing, that’s what he is now. And so I think you combine the loss of power. You combine, you know, that kind of stuff like the stupidity, the unhingedness, I think it’s giving more people permission. I think the real question is though. Let’s look at the dynamic in the speakers race, the potential speakers race.

You know? I’m sure Mitch McConnell wins again, but does he have to go through a tough battle on that? I think let’s take the loudest people on the Internet. Because again, I think the id of the Republican party to use your term — Mhmm. — a lot of the time stems from who’s the loudest people on Twitter in the Internet.

It’s stupid, but that’s what drives things now. Is it is the outright gonna double down with Donald Trump and attack every tweet that some Republican member of Congress does because they’re not especially loyal to Trump. Well, that that has an impact. Well, it

does have an impact as as well as this fear, which I write about in the column later today, that the Donald Trump has always had that in the implicit threat that if you don’t go with me, I will burn it all down. I will take my ball and go home. He terrified Ryan’s previous, you know, back in twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen by the possibility to run as a third party. He’s got that thirty percent So Republicans right now are thinking, you know, Donald Trump is toxic. We can’t win with his kind of crazy on the ballot.

Election denial is not a winning issue anywhere in that that’s basically all he’s got. On the other hand, if he decides to torch everything inside, yeah, we can’t win with me either. Right? Yeah.

But look, it’s interesting because I can think back to a hundred different times when we had the chance to put put in politically politically in the grave. Know, obviously, January sixth, you know, there were so many time Mitch McConnell could have buried him because if Mitch McConnell would have voted to remove him, I’d be he had a guy in enough votes. Right? But he didn’t. And so the one thing I am very confident and promising right now and predicting not necessarily the future of Trump and whether he he wins the nomination.

The thing I’m confident is that the vast majority of Republican members of the House, at least, and around the country will not say a dang word about Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis until they know where the party’s going. They will not lead They will sit back and listen. They will pretend like, you know, oh, I don’t wanna get involved in a primary. That’s like the most anti Trump thing they’ll ever say. Or, you know, hey, we’re gonna let the people decide.

One of the things I wanna do in my after life here from Congress is just like put down on this. Of all the things politicians say and what they really mean. Like, because I’ve done it. Right? So when you say, hey, we need to take a deep look at that, or we need to have a conversation is basically you punting the ball because you don’t have an answer.

You don’t wanna say the answer. Mhmm. So, you know, what is that with Trump? It’s like, well, you know the people need ASIDE OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. THAT’S WHAT I AM one hundred percent CONFIDENT AND NOBODY WILL TAKE A STAND.

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wanna come back to Kevin’s day and what what he faces right right now and also, you know, Matt Gates. But let’s stick with the January sixth committee because yesterday was the deadline for Donald Trump to show up and to testify under subpoena or to turn over records. He didn’t do it. He is pushing back against your your subpoena saying he should have absolute immunity. So what is the status of that?

The clock is running on on you guys? So what is the next step for the January sixth committee?

Yeah. So

on the Trump thing specifically, that’s it’s basically within the next few days or a week we have to decide. Let’s be realistic here. You know, we basically have the lame duck session left. This this committee ends at the end of this Congress, not just because likely the Republicans will take over, but because that’s the mandate. It ends.

So can we get in a long protracted legal fight with the former president? Probably not. Let’s be clear. He had said over and over again that he, you know, wanted to come in and testify. He was willing to come in and testify.

He he also said that, you know, look, I think what was it? He he said in his his suit against us, something about, you know, other presidents have come in and testified, but none have been compelled. But what he’s admitting is that, yes, other presidents can and should come in and testify and that he had to be compelled to do it and he’s not doing it. So in terms of with him, I I I don’t know what the real alternative and options on our end are. I I think we understood that going in because, you know, unfortunately, we’re limited on time.

So on the broader thing, what’s next for the committee? We are both finishing up some leads and interviews and still investigating while also putting the report together, the report will be the thing that lives in history. And the thing that probably not everybody’s gonna read it, but I think it will have an impact in terms of history, the future, all that kind of stuff. We’ll probably maybe have, you know, one more hearing to talk about that maybe some other issues on that. But basically, from the legal perspective, it’s now the tortures with the Department of Justice The question is, what is the Department of Justice gonna do?

They have more time, more tools than we had to enforce subpoenas, to have people come in and talk. I mean, keep in mind with all the stuff that we found and been able to do, that is still with a number of very important people refusing to talk to us. And basically, even the Department of Justice throwing people like Steve Bannon in jail is not enough to compel them to come in and speak. So there’s a lot of unknown stuff here. And so that’s with DOJ.

Our job, which is here’s the story, here’s recommendations, that’s gonna wrap up. And and I can look back on this time on my committee and say, I, a hundred percent believe, of all the very important things I’ve done in Congress, and, you know, my passion was foreign policy and military. This will be the most important thing I’ve ever been involved with. So what

is the timing? When are we going to see the document?

Would say kind of mid to late December. We don’t know for sure yet,

Christmas. We,

you know, obviously, wanna put it out as late as possible because we we need to get much information in there as possible. But, yeah, we can’t get go past January second. Now there’ve been a

lot of reports about what’s going to be in the report, what’s not going to be in the the report. Well, tell me. I mean, it it sounds like you have to make a decision, the committee, to make a decision whether to narrow the focus and to make it very clearly focusing on Donald Trump’s role as opposed to going into depth about the FBI’s failures or the failures capital police. Can you give me some insight into the thinking about the focus of this report?

Yeah. The best insight I can give is if you look at the resolution, the charging document that created this committee, task us with a number of things, some things that we have to figure out, including the security posture of the capital, etcetera, we will follow through on that. We will do what we were charging that resolution to do. So while a lot of this is still up like, basically, all these products basically exist and now we gotta figure out, you know, what’s gonna go in, what’s not how’s it gonna go, And is something gonna just come out as an appendix? Is it gonna come out in a different way?

But I think people will get a complete picture of what happened that day because it’s important for us Yes. I mean, the chief guy that’s responsible is Donald Trump. But there also are some things to learn in terms of what what was done wrong on the security posture. What do we know about domestic violence extremism? Things like the financing of some of this.

There’s a lot of stuff, Charlie, that unfortunately, is legal. That really shouldn’t be. And so maybe that should be referred to a committee. And that’ll be part of our recommendations to some of those things. What

about vice president Mike Pence who is now out with a book today and gave interviews over the weekend in which he was prepared to say that he thought that the president had endangered himself and adhered him and his family and his rhetoric was reckless too late to get him to testify or to cooperate with the committee. Even though he’s out

properly. Look, I mean, his people were very cooperative and and very helpful. So that’s good. But look, I have such mixed feelings about Mike Pence. Yeah.

Yes, that day he did the right thing. Basically, he did what was legal. Okay? The thing I am struggling with on him

I think

it is hardy’s a good man, but he didn’t say a damn word for two years after January six. You know, he he may gave one speech where he’s like, I didn’t have the right to overthrow the election. Well, that was huge news. Okay? Good.

Mhmm. But we were doing a lot of stuff

that he

knew answers to. He could have voluntarily come in and talked to us. He knew what was going. He knew and he said that the president put him in danger. What

is more important

to you, making sure you save some of those surprises for your book or the future of your country?

And look, I would

love if Mike Pence ran for president against Donald Trump be be fun to watch, but I do want answers from him as to why what he feels is so important to the future that’s, you know, so serious. Mhmm. Why do you wait two years to talk about it? I get it. You were a faithful vice president to a point.

Okay? I’m not gonna blame them for things he disagreed with with Trump that didn’t necessarily speak out about while he was vice president. But afterwards, Something so fundamental, like the survival of democracy, and you don’t say anything. And I think, honestly, Charlie, Mike Pence, If after January six he’d have fully divorced Donald Trump, he would have gone out and spoken about it, he would be the Ron DeSantis right now. He would be the guy that over the last two years was able to make a compelling case to the Republican base who trusts him even if at the moment they don’t like him, And I think he could be the alternative to Donald Trump.

Now, I have no idea where he stands. It’s almost like Chris Christie, where it’s like, Is he pro Trump or is he against it? Just depends like what day you ask

you.

So Donald Trump is gonna announce he’s running for president today, which is the maybe the earliest that anybody’s ever announced for president. And if there’s a lot of reasons why he’s doing it, he needs to change the narrative, right, that, you know, right now, he’s the biggest loser in the world. He needs to reestablish the fact that no, he’s a winner lean into it. He needs to reassert his control over the republican party. He obviously needs to keep the griff going.

He needs to keep the attention going. But also, there are a lot of people who are thinking, look, the the The main reason is he thinks that by announcing now that he can put the Department of Justice in a box. We have a piece of the bill work today by Dennis Afterglot, who says he’s scared countless of the possibility of prosecution. It seems likely that indictments are on their way from Fulton County, Georgia and from attorney general, Merrick Garland, By formally becoming a presidential candidate, Trump thinks he’ll get an edge on prosecutors. He craves his narrative.

DEMS are trying to take down an announced republican candidate president unprecedented translation should be unnecessary. I’m a martyr to defend me go after them. So your thoughts does this make it harder for the Department of Justice? I’m assuming the Fulton County prosecutor won’t care, but for the Department of Justice to move ahead with with indictment? I mean,

it’s a great question. I don’t think it makes it harder for DOJ to move forward, but I do. I I I, as much as I hate to say it, it does give Donald Trump the ability to say, they’re coming after me because they’re scared. And we know that seventy percent of the country is gonna laugh that off and know that’s untrue. The problem is thirty percent of the country is gonna believe it.

These are the same people that again are now starting to believe. The people that let’s keep in mind the thirty percent I’m talking about, you know, a lot of them are bad actors, but a number of them are just people that have been abused. They’ve been lied to. They’ve had their Social Security check taken away ten dollars in one email at a time — Mhmm. — to a man that is extremely rich because he’s at threat.

These are the abused people that he can go to and say, look, they the government’s coming after me because they’re afraid You know, the people that believe that he was gonna come back with JFK Junior or whatever, you know, that that he was gonna be the one to put people, you know, rhinos like you and me and jail, that it’s just his plan hasn’t been finished yet. It’s all part of an in time apocalypse thing, which is a whole another conversation. But I think he will have great effect with that thirty percent if he announces and if he’s indicted. I don’t think it’s gonna deter the Department of Justice and I also wanna be clear I think in three, five, even a year, whatever it is, there will be that day. It’s like waking up Saturday morning from just the hardcoreist party you had on Friday night looking around and there’s, like, you know, farm animals and balloons and everything and course empty bottles, you’re like, what in the world happened last night?

I think there will be a moment when even the hardest Trump supporters will look around and and and think that. And so Okay. But, ma’am, it’s gonna take some time. It

is gonna take some time. But now you’ve raised, I think, the most interesting question. It is one of the unknown, which is, what will the Republican reaction be to a Trump indictment? I think the conventional wisdom based on on past history is that there’s a rally around the flag of effect that if he’s indicted, that Republicans will immediately come to his defense. And I think he’s made perhaps counting on all of that.

However, in the environment that we are in, as of today, may not be the case two two days from now, but as of today, you have a lot of Republicans that are looking for an excuse to move on. Who are looking at Ron DeSantis who are kind of ticked off at Donald Trump for attacking DeSantis who really are hoping for something that will protect them from having to go through electoral hell in twenty twenty four. So will there be Republicans who will look at the indictment and maybe, you know, publicly say, well, you know, it’s it’s too bad, but privately say to themselves, this is good. You know, please Merrick Garland. You know, let this cup pass from us.

Would you save us from this? Save us. Merrick Garland. Save us from ourselves.

It’s so

funny because it’s so true. Like Yeah. I think look. I think there’s no a hundred percent, no doubt that there’s a lot of people secretly rooting for Donald Trump to be gone. I think the question if he’s indicted in terms of kind of the the id, let’s let’s call it again, is do people like Ron DeSantis actually have the courage?

Let’s just use him. I people have just, like, anointed him the next guy. I’m not convinced of it. But, you know, does he have the courage to say, yes. It’s time to move on.

Does he stay quiet? And then do members of congress, which I’ll talk about just because I know them the best, or do they come out and say, hey, Yes. Maybe he broke the law. It’s time to move on. I probably not.

They’ll probably come out and be like, this is garbage. But, you know, but we gotta win. So maybe it’s just time to move on. But this Donald Trump thing, I mean, he’s he’s just a he’s a martyr because that’s the easy answer. I know the easy answers because I’ve done this job for twelve years.

It’s to give a little something to the crazies while, you know. But, you know, hey, over here, I’m I’m kinda reasonable. I think in the long run, he’s gonna be ashamed and embarrassed staying on our country. Donald Trump, that is. And I think anybody that supported him will be ashamed and embarrassed that they ever did.

In the short term, I think, really, it’s gonna be do people have the courage to speak out? Or is he just a martyr. And I think if he gets indicted and everybody’s saying he’s just a martyr, without it’s starting to move on. He’s the front runner again. The

flip side

of that is that if this comes down to being, you know, who is a winner and who is a loser and that’s that is the scenario that he fears the most. Because right now, Ron DeSantis is the big winner and he is the loser. And if there is that perception either publicly or privately that you know what? Donald Trump was absolutely fantastic. I’m talking about the base.

You know, he was great one of the greatest presidents ever. However, do we really wanna go into twenty twenty four with somebody who is under indictment? When we could go with somebody who could give us eight years, who was not under a diamond, who’s proven he could win elections. You know, there is a certain pragmatism even among people who have voted for Donald Trump because even a lot of that rationalization, as you know, was we’re gonna go along because that’s how we get elected. If the perception does spread, that this will cost power.

This will cost elections. This is the one way that Republicans will be defeated. I think it will change the dynamic, but I don’t know how much. I think you’re probably right. Well,

let me

I’ll just say real quick too. I I think what will what we will be able to tell I think what’ll be able to give us some kind of insight in the next week or two is, does Donald Trump successfully blame Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell? Or does he continue to take some of the blame? Because he is desperately trying to pivot on them. That’ll be a question, I think, that’ll that’ll kind of be re revelatory in terms of the future.

Well,

we know that he’s gonna blame Mitch McConnell. He’s he’s already done that. So he’s he’s going to do everything possible to format a civil war in the minority caucus. In the senate, but now great segue, Kevin McCarthy, who is hanging on by a fingernail and knowing the one thing he cannot do. Is antagonized.

The Orange God came down in Marlanda. What if the Orange God came call someone and says, Kevin, I would love for you to be speaker, but I need you to do me a favor. I need you to declare your endorsement of me today before I say anything about this. What’s Kevin McCarthy going to do? He’s going

to cave, isn’t he? Oh, of course, he’s gonna cave. This couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. Like, I you know, again, for those that don’t know, I I used to be great friends with Kevin McCarthy. He’s been the biggest disappointment of my life.

And you know, let’s look at Elise Stefanik who I think is probably thinking, okay, if Kevin goes down, I can be the next speaker. Right away. I mean, as we’re losing seats or or having the lack of a red way, if she already tweaks out her endorsement of Donald Trump, like, how pathetic I’m gonna by the way, how obvious can you get? So Kevin now, here’s the dynamics in the caucus. So, yes, Andy Biggs is gonna run against it for speaker that really is meaningless because Kevin will get a majority of the caucus.

So let’s say they end up with two hundred and twenty people. Yeah. He needs a hundred and eleven. So that that’ll be done. The question then is, do you get to two eighteen on the floor — Right.

— because that’s what we use. Yeah. Yep. And

that’s where people can extract power. Why is Marjorie Taylor Green super supportive of of Kevin? She doesn’t like Kevin. There’s a reason he’s promised something to her, I guarantee you. Why is Matt Gates against Marjorie Taylor Green?

Because probably Kevin McCarthy has yet to promise him anything. And secondarily, he wants to be more famous than Marjorie Taylor Green.

Okay, let me

play this sound bite. I think you’ve already answered the question, but I mentioned earlier, I did not have Matt Gates attacking Mar Drew Taylor Green. This harshly on my scorecard. This is Matt Gates, who, by the way, is talking on Lindell TV. I mean, he’s he’s hanging out with my pillow guy.

Let’s play that. So

I think there were strategic decisions that were wrong. I think those strategic decisions illuminate a lack of trust and whatever Kevin has promised Marjorie Taylor Green — Mhmm. — I guarantee you this. At the first opportunity, he will zap her faster than you could say Jewish base laser. And I wish that wasn’t the case, but it is the conduct and it is the pattern and practice of Kevin McCarthy over years that that showcased this.

Oh, okay. For

the

first time in my life, I gotta agree with something that Gates said. That was pretty funny. But it appears that the nutcase caucus is now that knives out for one

another. And this is what you have when you when when every single one of them is sitting there going, I can be a kingmaker. I can be that one vote, that two votes. It’s never been

principle based. The Freedom Club, I call them the Freedom Club. They’ve never been principle based. It’s always been about becoming famous even if they don’t believe it in their heart, but somebody like to me. That’s literally all he wants, same with Marjorie Taylor Green.

But yeah, you’re right. When you’re you know, when there’s a fifteen twenty person majority, you know, it takes a lot of people to to affect that, to kind of deny, you know, the future speaker his his

votes.

But when it’s just like three, four, five. You can find that, which is why I think the democrats need to be really thinking about. And working people like, frankly, AOC and some of those that are gonna never, you know, vote for Republican, find a Republican that is agreeable, try to find a couple of Republicans that are in elected office and vote for that person for speaker. It does not have to be a current member of Congress. I I don’t think there’s a chance in hell it happens, but a No.

It would be interesting. When there was that that floated suggestion

from was a congressman Bacon who is saying, look, if if nobody can get two hundred and eighteen, I’m willing to sit around with with Democrats and come up with with enough votes to have some sort of a reasonable compromise choice. This would be the I suppose the nightmare scenario for the Marjorie Taylor Greens in the Kevin McCarthy’s of the world. So at the end of the day, do you think Kevin McCarthy ends up with that speaker’s gavel that he wants so desperately? Oh,

yeah. Because he’s a master at

absolutely kissing

whoever’s butt he needs to. Okay. So what is it like though if if in fact He ends up with two hundred and twenty votes. Two hundred and eighteen is the majority. What kind of a functional or non functional

majority is that? Is a totally nonfunctional majority because, again, I’ve lived this where, you know, we wanna defund Obamacare. Let’s say, well, we don’t defund it enough. Or if we wanna just pass the budget, we have to defund Obamacare because there’s ten Republicans that are willing to vote no on a conservative bill so that we don’t have enough people to get it done. If you’re down to one or two on the majority, each person now has the power of a senator where every bill has to get basically not pulled to something that can win or something that gets into law, but to the furthest right You wanna impeach Joe Biden?

If you impeach Joe Biden, I’ll give you my vote for this priority of yours. It will be an unfunctional majority in probably Kevin will be the equivalent of the dog that caught the car. Obviously, he thinks that,

you know, any kind of winning is better than losing and, you know, having the majority is better than being in the minority. On the other hand, If you wanted to come up with a scenario, a nightmare scenario for Kevin McCarthy, it it has to be something very close to this where he has the the title without the real power. He has the responsibility, but an absolutely possible job. I mean, if John Bainer couldn’t make it work, Paul or Ryan couldn’t make it work, who would imagine the Kevin McCarthy with two hundred and twenty votes? He’s going to make it work.

He certainly won’t. And

I’ll I’ll tell you, you know, Baylor was one of the best at cutting deals. He struggled You know, Paul Ryan, new policy. He was a moderate, good guy. He struggled. Kevin McCarthy, you’re gonna have trouble.

Here’s the real question, Charlie. Is do the new moderate Republicans. I don’t even know if there are any or or who they are. Are they willing to say, we’re not gonna vote for you, Kevin. If you go too far crazy, that’s the big question.

I don’t

know the answer to that. We’ll see. We will see Adam Kinziger. Thank you so much for coming back on the podcast. We’ll have you back on before the end of the Congress, I hope.

Keep up anytime. The Bulwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio production by Jonathan Seres. I’m Charlie Sykes Thank you for listening to today’s Bulwark podcast. We’ll be back tomorrow and do this all over again.

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