A.B. Stoddard: The Super Kooks

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Welcome to the Bulwark podcast. I’m Charlie Sykes, booked four, we go back to the usual darkness. Could we just start off with this reminder that we can still do big things

Oh my gosh.

Oh, wow. Yeah. Oh my goodness. Yeah. Seven six wow.

Four Three, two, what? Oh my gosh. Wow. I didn’t deserve confirmation. Alright.

In the name of sanitary defense.

Fantastic. Oh, fantastic. And that is fantastic. AB Stoddart associate editor and columnist had real clear politics jointly on the podcast today. I gotta say, I’ve listened to that probably half a dozen times.

I still get goosebumps.

I agree. It’s so rare and extraordinary. These days to hear that unanimity, that rejoicing, that sense of mission accomplished for something that’s actually not only super cool, but really important, and that there are people out there trying to prevent our ultimate demise is really heartening, and I didn’t know how much I needed it until it happened.

No. I I I agree. And it is cool. And obviously, I think that, you know, people know that we’re talking about the the fact that we we sent this spaceship directly like a a dart into this space rock and hit it and, you know, this is the world’s first planetary defense test mission, which is kind of amazing. I just humanity’s first attempt to alter the motion of an asteroid or any celestial body played out in a NASA webcast from the Missions Operations Center outside Washington DC ten months after we first launched it.

And, you know, it it’s cool in and of itself, but

I don’t

know, should I go here? Should I go should I go for the snark right

away?

Yes. I’m sorry. You know, it in contrast to the billionaire phallic rockets, which are like, hey, look at this. We go up and then we come down again. This actually has very, very clear relevance in utility.

Excellent. And it’s easily understandable. There are asteroids out there now, it may not happen anytime soon, but the odds are with billions of asteroids flying around that sooner or later one’s gonna head our way and then really, really bad things could happen. And this is something that has been has, you know, been the focus of of science fiction movies, but now we’re actually developing a planetary defense system that might be able to blow them up or change the trajectory. I mean, this this is not just, you know, sending something up into the air to show that we can do it.

It’s like, okay. Can we actually save all life on the planet if we have to, if one of the big ones is heading our way?

It’s breathtaking. I mean, here we all on Earth. We can barely pass up an annual spending bill. All everyone’s fighting and all these debates are convulsing democracies around the world and other dictator countries or just ignoring and and decimating human rights. But someone some really smart people are putting their hearts and minds and resources and energy into, quote, planetary defense to save all humankind.

It’s such a contrast. It it it gave me chills for so many different reasons. Yeah.

In my newsletter today, I did that split screen that we’re we’re kinda getting at the Sublime and the Shambala is that while we we have this in fredible technical achievement, scientific achievement, we now have to come back to our shambolic petty politics where obviously we not only seems like we can’t get things done, but there’s a lack of willingness to do that. And I talked about the the latest extremely light in the policy, Lofers agenda from the House GOP, which basically has no you know what? Do you have any idea I’m a shit I’m gonna probably get for the whole, you know, light in the policy localist thing? Just —

Hi, Hal.

— yesterday, I’m I’m I’m sorry to bore you with you know, I was talking about lawyers and I I included just sort of in passing some lawyer jokes in the context of saying that that our democracy, you know, now rests in the hands of maybe the judicial system. It shouldn’t be it shouldn’t be up to process educators and judges to save our democracy, but here we’re at so. But I included in, sort of, you know, drive by a man or a couple of lawyer jokes. And, of course, I got all of the huffy, you know. That’s not funny, Charlie.

We should not be joking about these things, you know. So thank you all for your daily doses of complete humorlessness.

Goodness. They can’t take it. That’s

reminding us. Okay. So hello, darkness, our old friend. So right now, In late September two thousand twenty two, a b started. What is the most interesting state in terms of our politics?

What is the most entertaining of the fifty states?

Intertaining or worrisome. I mean, there’s there’s a few that are so interesting for profound training. You go first. I have one. So I’m really fascinated in the disparity between Shady Vance’s approval and Mike DeWine’s approval in Ohio.

Income and governor is way ahead of J. D. Vance. Yes. We’re told that polling is off.

Just across the board. Yes. We’re told, Ohio polling is historically, we but watching the difference between, you know, the city governor comfortably putting his democratic opponent away, and Willie, And then, you know, these polls that have shown Tim Ryan in the fight all along. Right. I just can’t help find it fascinating and one what’s going on there and what will happen maybe to mine and loses by, you know, two instead of eight.

It was a Trump based state. But again, Ohio is so interesting. There’s three major urban centers, which obviously, abortion is going to be a factor. And when I look at, like, I’m not even looking at Florida, North Carolina, I basically consider Wisconsin that I’m just consider, like, that Ron John’s gonna be reelected. But Arizona and Georgia, I mean, my goodness.

Charlie. I’m I just I know that Blake Masters is way behind the the the sitting, the senator Mark Kelly, he continues to crush the polls and reach fifty percent and be eight points ahead of his opponent. But but then this Kitty Hobbs, the Democrat running against the super coop, Kerry Lake, for governor, she’s invisible. She she She doesn’t go on TV. She doesn’t hold high prideful campaign events.

She’s not going to debate, which I think is a huge error. And so that I think is Arizona is still really a weird factor for me. And then, of course, in Georgia, you know, you have Stacey Abrams admitting that she’s having trouble with black men voters. And and there’s just been I believe there’s gonna be tickets splitting or or or holes in the in the ballot. I believe a lot of Republicans are gonna fill out their ballot for Brian Kemp and not vote for Churchill Walker.

Doesn’t mean they’re gonna vote for the senator Rafael Warner, but at just as there’s been too many polls where Hershel’s, like, kinda, hanging in. And so I don’t know. Weird. It is weird. Yeah.

That mean, that is one of the the

striking things about this year, you have some of the the weird the weirdest most, I think demonstrably unfit candidates, but they’re still in in the mix. So Yeah. On on this question of of of Georgian and Hershel Walker, I mean, we’ve seen what being a Republican and the Senate has done to the brains of people like Marco Rubio. Ted Cruz and Josh Holly, imagine what it would do to Hershel Walker. Imagine being a Republican in the Senate, were due to the brain of Hershel Walker.

I just wanna leave that aside for a moment and and maybe regret the fact that we’re not gonna be saved by an asteroid hitting the earth before November. But the the correct answer to the question, A. B. About the most interesting state. I would like it to be Wisconsin, but it is freaking pencil being

here. Where

we have both Doug Mastriano who is running one of the weakest campaigns I you got this this New York time story, you know, Doug Mastriano, who just complete, you know, election liar fake conspiracy theorist that, you know, we could we could go on for some time here. Mastriano’s sputtering campaign, no TV ads, tiny crowds, little money, able to hate to see it. Being heavily outspent by his Democratic rival, has no television ads on the air since May, has chosen not to interact with the state’s news media in ways that would push his agenda and trails by double digits in public polling and most private surveys. And then, of course, you have doctor Oz. Who?

Okay. This is the thing that puzzles me about. And, of course, he’s also now trailing John Federman even though, again, this should be a state that Republicans should be within I mean, this would be a state that would be on on a list of Republicans will be able to flip the governor’s seat and and and hold on to the senate seat, but doesn’t look like it. So here’s the my question about doctor Oz though. This guy has spent his entire life.

Shilling and marketing for stuff. Right? Yeah.

I

mean, the the guy is basically a carnival barker. So would you think that he’s cut would be kind of you know, have had some experience in messaging, and yet he’s so bad at it. And I wanna play for you a sound bite. You know, he’s been trying to find different ways of changing the dynamics of the race. He tried to make an issue of Federman’s health, which was Cringeworthy apparently didn’t get him any traction.

So now and I I I am not kidding you. He’s he’s going after John Federman’s clothing, which he describes as his costume. And he has deep thoughts about the way that John Federman dresses, you know, the the hoodie and all of that stuff. So here’s here’s doctor Oz talking about why he

dresses like that. Would have pushed back on the costume a little bit because it’s interesting phenomenon. I was stunned by it as well. But it turns out that if you’re a far left radical, with the belief that this country is irredeemably stained. You just wanna break it apart.

Just bust America — Yeah. — track it to its base, break it asunder and rebuild it with your toxic ideology. That’s what he stands for. When he dresses like that, it’s not an accident. He’s kicking authority in the ball.

Yeah.

He

say, hey,

I’m the man. I’m gonna I’ll I’ll show those guys whose whose boss. I’m gonna not allow any traditional path to succeed. Because by breaking some parts of it down, I can represent. I can break it all down.

That’s the deeper message she’s

delivering. Winnie dresses like that. He’s kicking authority in the balls. Wow. Yeah.

Okay. I’m not Doctor Oz is now campaigning for John Betterman, basically highlighting the fact that he has serious street cred with Trump voters in rural Pennsylvania who dressed exactly like John Betterman. He is way cooler than you think. Just oh, with our.

This is what’s known as an own goal.

It’s just oh, the man is really scratching around. I mean, this is getting strange. It’s the one You know what that would mean? Yeah. I if if I were on his team, I would have said never touch that stuff.

Never touch the shorts and the hoodies. Don’t don’t go there because that’s

like, that’s his crap. You know? Don’t do it. But he did it. He’s really desperate.

Yeah. Here here is doctor Oz who wears, I’m guessing, handmade bespoke suits — Yes. — who’s making fun of a guy who wears hoodies. In Pennsylvania where they’re fighting for blue collar rural voters, pure man of political genius. Okay.

So that’s sort of why doctor Oz is struggling. And you mentioned the other, you know, what’s going on in Arizona, which, you know, continues to be. Just what a strange state? What a, you know, a a state where you, you know, one side of the screen is perfectly rational people, including a long tradition of rational Republicans, and then the other side of the screen are these absolute complete you know, batshit crazy folks like the Republican nominee Kerry Leak.

And of

course, Tucker Carlson had Kerry Leak on his show last night. And she’s talking about the Italian election, where a far right candidate, Georgia Maloney, who was the nominee of the party, who was the leader of a of a party, that really is a successor to the fascist parties in in Italy, and people are very very concerned about her extreme right wing semi fascist ideology, and Cary Lake, like so many other Republicans, has really rushed to embrace her. And this is what I wanna talk about this phenomenon. The enthusiasm of American right wingers for this, you know, a quasi fascist candidate in in Italy. And this is what she had to say last night.

So you are one of the very first American pop decisions to weigh in on this election. You were paying attention, which I appreciated. What do you make of this?

I’m so excited. You know, it’s funny. I looked I looked this at Italian miss Maloney up. When I heard about her about a week ago, and I couldn’t find any — Mhmm. — just straight up information on her.

Everything was she’s a fascist. She’s a a racist. She’s this. She’s that. And I thought, wow.

This is somebody who I can relate to because they’re doing the same thing about me, and it makes me realize that if they’re not calling you all of these slurs, if they’re not attacking you, then you’re probably not truly representing the people of your country.

If they’re not calling you a racist or a fascist, you’re probably not representing certain people in your in your country. I got the

thing about Perry Lake. The reason that she’s so dangerous is that unlike Mastery Amano who I believe does not at all prioritize campaign funds, advertisements, rally size because I do believe that he believes that the storm is coming and Q has told him that he’s gonna win the gubernatorial race and that, you know, it’s it’s God’s call. So I just think he’s that over the line. Carrie Lake is incredible performer. I find her totally mesmerizing, and that’s what’s frightening because she’s a complete and utter liar.

A former supporter of Obama and big Trump critic. And she, as we’ve all mentioned, so many times, has been in the living rooms of all of these constituents for two decades as a TV personality in the state. And she’s now transformed herself into, you know, Tucker. And she has a a a mass following because she’s this, you know, again, really good communicator and she’s a woman. And this is why the idea that Kitty Hobbs refuses to debate her and call her out as a fraud and a danger, I think is is so reckless and so risky because I think Carrie Lake knows what she’s doing and she does it pretty well and she’s gonna become a huge contender on the right.

Winterloops. Well,

and and and in part that’s because she’s not an outlier as you could tell from from Tucker’s enthusiasm. You know, there there was once a real I I think I talked about this on another podcast. There was there was once a real distinction between American conservatism and Europe in national fund conservatism that was a libertarian streak. And now there I mean, you can see really across the board how excited American right wingers are at watching this this far right candidate winning in in Italy. Shows that, you know, they they really globalized much of their their ideology.

But also, I just think it’s interesting the way that they are framing it that it’s almost as if being called a racist and a fascist by which they mean also behaving like a racist and a fascist is not kind of a badger honor. It’s it’s kind of a a seal of approval that you must be doing the right thing if you’d be calling a fascist and a racist. So people should not be surprised when people on the right just no longer even blink when you accuse them of that. No. It’s mean, no.

It’s it’s it’s it’s there’s there’s no longer any sense of, like, oh, no. No. That’s wrong. We are not. We are not saying, you know, the they turned into the fact you’re calling us a fascist means that we must be doing something right.

Okay? So this is where we’re at here. Yeah. It’s the goal. Fashions is the new racist,

you know. Right. Because

that wasn’t enough, Shirley. That wasn’t cool and illiverable enough.

Yeah. I

mean, I’m old enough to remember when if you were called a racist, it was something like, oh, hey, that’s that’s embarrassing. I I need to I need to refute this in some way as opposed to shrug my shoulders and roll my eyes. But now it’s like, okay, fascists being the new racist. It’s like all these fascists around around the world. They’re they’re like us.

They’re they’re doing the same thing that we do. And if you criticize them for their fascist policies, well, I can identify with that because, you know, that’s what they say about me. I mean, this is

For for

people who don’t understand or or or perhaps somewhat naive about the the trajectory of all this, and he also raised another question which don’t want to gloss over the increasingly explicit embrace of queuing on conspiracy theories by Donald Trump himself. Yeah. Even though apparently, they’re discouraging the the one finger salute anymore. But but, you know, yesterday, I was on one of the cable shows and they were doing a little doc little mini package about queuing on, how bizarre it is, how it is destroyed lives, how it’s associated with the violence. And people ought to be very clear what we’re talking about.

I mean, queuing on, it’s very complicated, but it believes that the world is run by a ring of satanic pedophiles, And then it gets worse from that, you know, people who believe that the military is going to rise up overthrow Joe Biden and that will arrest Biden other leading democrats you know, celebrities, take them down to getmo and execute them. And they think of this as a good thing. And the only reason we are talking about it is because the former and perhaps future president of the United States is embracing and amplifying this absolutely bizarre, toxic, hateful conspiracy theory. And yet that’s sort of like number fifteen on our list of things that we are outraged and worried about. Howard Bauchner: Yeah,

it’s remarkable when you see Republicans try to almost two months after the August eighth search at Mar a Lago, all these things have been revealed and now they’re saying, you know, they’re they’re finally answering reporter’s questions and saying, no, you can’t really declassify. With your brain or your nose. And you would think that this is the queuing on, this this idea of flirting with and embracing QAnon, which we know is a very intentional tactical move on Trump’s part, right, to find a sort of a new army and new to expand his universe of people who are frightened and and are impressionable and want a massive confrontation known as the storm where these political enemies will be executed at Gipro and live television, apparently. Also, since he called into the January sixth, like, vigil rally in the DC jail, to some sixers and said it was such a disgrace on how he’s trying to help fund their defense or anything. You would think that in all we’ve been through, not only in the last six years, but in the last you know, couple months that Republicans would say, I just wanna make it clear — Exactly.

— this is really dangerous and none of it is true. And they know, Charlie, that people in their church and people in their neighborhoods and people in their family are going down Qnon rabbit holes. It’s no longer some strange distant thing. If if we don’t know personally someone, who’s, you know, flirting with cue. We know someone who knows someone.

This is really incredibly dangerous stuff. And this is so easy for Republicans to step up and say, you know what? You can just do it with your hometown reporter. You don’t have to go and call into sixty minutes and sit down. But you you can, you know, take a stand on this and say, I believe, the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Justice said this is real dangerous threat.

No. Total

silence. See, this is another really, really important point. And I wish I would have made it more forcefully yesterday during this this conversation. The complete absence of any pushback from the normal Republicans. You know, again, shouldn’t necessarily be surprising, but it’s still shocking if you understand the contradiction there.

And, of course, we have the usual explanation, you know, cowardice. It’s the midterms are up, you know, people don’t wanna rock the boat. There’s also a sense though, I I just think of numbness of exhaustion. It’s like, why bother? And as a result, you know, we have one of these moments again where, you know, the best lack all conviction where the worst are full of passionate intensity.

But I looked around to find any pushback. And again, you point out something this is easy. It is really easy to come out against violence, against, you know, people who think that your political opponents should be arrested and executed at, you know, Guantanamo Bay, it it shouldn’t be difficult to speak out about, you know, the threats of of violence if the criminal justice is to work. And yet, I can’t find anything. Am I missing something?

No. No. No one

has said anything since the rally that we can’t before with all of the fingers in the air and the music. And then, as you said, this last weekend’s rally, he still played the music, and he speaks, you know, in in very frightening. Just stopian, you know, terms and knowing that Q is all over his audience, but I guess when they put their fingers in the air, some people were trying to discourage them. If that means that Republicans are calling the former president’s team and saying, could you just keep the fingers down? Everything else is cool?

I mean, that would be even worse. But, yes, it’s been complete and utter silence. Yeah.

Apparently, somebody thinks that if you don’t have the finger up, you know, which is, you know, where one goes, we all go or something like that. I’m I’m getting the the satanic ring of pedophile. But it is interesting how often you you see echoes I mean, not only do you not have a pushback, but the the echoes that you hear of Q1 conspiracy if there is, you know, a a lot of the talk about the deep state or of grooming. The obsession with a, you know, possible, you know, child molestation all of these things that kind of pop up or dropped into rhetoric are really sort of winks and nods at a q and on conspiracy theory. So, you know, there was a time, like, ten minutes ago when Marjorie Taylor Green was, you know, out there, you know, she was not completely on the fringes because she had a seat in congress and Republicans were not expelling her or anything.

But now, Marjorie Taylor Green’s rhetoric is really I mean, it’s it’s it’s really become very much like the mainstream of the Republican Party. Is is that is that hyperbole to say that?

No. It it does seem it does seem now, like, a long time ago, Charlie. When there was a vote in congress to strip urge committees because she was the Q and ON congresswoman. She’s now a major star. She’s still a freshman.

I know it seems like she’s been in the house for eighteen years, but she’s still a freshman. That’s that’s how recent it was. And now she’s seated behind, you know, the left shoulder of Kevin McCarthy, what he does is policy rule out? This week, I mean, it it tells you all you need to know. They she’s been normalized, she’s been elevated, she’s close with she’s been very scrutiny made sure that she has good relationship with Donald Trump.

That’s her leverage, and she makes everyone else nervous. Because of it, she can just get on the phone with Donald. And wrap you out if you’re, you know, Nancy Mace or Kevin McCarthy or whoever it is. And so, no, she’s She’s been elevated ever since, which means that QAnon is no big deal. This

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Okay. So trigger warning here, a b?

Yeah. K.

And then maybe put this in context before before I I go there because so last night, as you know, I used to have a radio show here in Wisconsin and was there for twenty three years, and we broadcast from a thing called Radio City, which is this sort of temple of Radio that had been been there since the nineteen forties. And last night was the very last show broadcast from there, and I actually went down and was on a show with my my former producer and, you know, I had to say it was it was struck by all the ghosts that were there. Many of them very personal. All of the the the politicians that I had thought one thing back then and now have learned wrong. So okay.

So that’s just sort of my preview there. Elisa

Fonic.

Is

this where you remind me that I was signed by JBL in twenty eighteen to write piece about how great Elise DeFonik was? Oh, so you throwing JBL under the bus now? I mean, he and

I and I agree on this and at the time she was great. Okay. So listen, I’m not trying to be embarrassing here. I mean, I I have I have Ron Johnson on my right Yeah. No.

I I I Johnson not online. I

can beat you I have sheriff David

Clark. Okay. Okay. You can okay.

So — Yeah. — I’m not throwing any shade. But I’m thinking about the the transformation of the Republican Party, how Marjorie Taylor Green, has become more mainstream. Obviously, Liz Cheney has been excommunicated but I’m looking at this tweet with this smiling picture of of Elise DeFonik who has gone pure ultra ultra mega The distinction between the least of sonic and Marjorie Taylor Green is only on the the edges now, isn’t it? Oh, yes.

I mean, Sophonic has to watch her back now because she’s gotta keep up with March. You gotta make sure that she’s, you know, in good stead with the crazy. That’s no question. Because Matt Gates and Marjorie Greene are, like, best friends, and they’ve been, you know, they’ve really put a lot of heat on Kevin McCarthy the last couple of years. And and so a Lisa product who’s technically keeping her place in the leadership lineup, whether the minority or the majority, but is clearly a contender for, I don’t know, Donald Trump’s vice presidential may in the future and any kind of overthrow in the leadership.

I mean, if Donald Trump freaks out and needs to start, like, a maga versus establishment war in the days following the election and there’s, you know, a gazillion reasons that he might want to. And he decides to throw Kevin McCarthy over uplift. And says he shouldn’t be speaker, and he says Lisa Stefanek should be speaker. She’s gotta make sure that she’s she’s she’s down with March. I mean, she’s got it.

I I

just think that I need to highlight some of this again, and maybe we’re both going to be a little bit defensive here for people who say, well, you know, these people were like this all along, and the answer is no, they weren’t. Maybe we should have seen things we didn’t see, but these folks have made certain decisions and taken certain paths that, well, that we didn’t recognize at the time and that still come as a shock. And I, you know, we were down in in also the Texas Tribune Festival Tim in Amanda Carpenter nine. We were, you know, talking about the bulwark and what the bulwark audience was and everything. And I said, I think people need to understand that that one of the the the subtext that runs through a lot of what we do is this, deep sense of soul crushing disillusionment and disappointment and progress — Yeah.

— for what we have missed in the past, what has happened to people that we thought we understood to watch the, you know, the slow motion or maybe not so slow motion, just devolution of almost every single aspect of Republican politics and conservative politics. You know, you you can pick out certain people here and there, but, you know, you look at the conservative immediate. You look at conservative donors. You look at what we used to euphemistically call think tanks like the Heritage Foundation. And you see the same thing.

And it’s it it it has been it has been extraordinary. There

are so many Republican members and senators that I was in close touch with regularly that I could not dare to bump into right now in a lobby. They they couldn’t look at me. I couldn’t look than looking at me. I mean, oh my heavens, it would just be terrible because I know that they know that I know it Yeah.

I know. It’s we and we all know. Okay. So we’re talking on Tuesday, tomorrow, on Wednesday. The January sixth committee has its first public hearing since July.

There’s some question about whether it will be the last public hearing. Interestingly enough, nobody seems to know what they’re going to be doing tomorrow. Do you have any insight?

So first, they just said they tried to make it sound like it was gonna be boring. Jimmy Raskin, who once said that the revelations would blow the roof off the house — Yeah. — was so intentionally bending over backwards to to lower expectations three days ago. Then they’ve kind of said some tantalizing, you know, hints about secret service. So so that could be really a big deal, and we know that a bunch of them lost their phones to the inspector general once an investigation review commenced So there’s been some recent news on that kind of stuff and that could be big.

I just do not believe that the one sixth committee is not gonna produce a shocker. I just don’t. They’ve been waiting for two months. They keep saying that they get more and more information by the week. And I don’t believe it’s the last hearing.

So listing is the only one who said that. It might not be the last year. But I just don’t think between September twenty eighth and November eighth, we’re not gonna have another hearing, and I just don’t believe it’s gonna be a dud. That’s all I know.

Okay. So let’s switch gears. Shall we? Let’s let’s talk let’s talk about the Democrats because you’re a very provocative piece of and real clear politics are progressive nearing a reckoning with their party. And it’s illustrated by a pick picture of Wisconsin’s own Mark Pocann with the various members of the squad.

And you you

write liberal

democrats have racked up a long list of laments. Since Joe Biden took office topping it off. Is the failure of their party in control of the White House and the Congress to pass voting rights, police reform, and the massive social welfare plans once known as build back better. So talk to me about the question you’re asking there. What happens if Joe Biden steps decide, what will the free for all primaries be, and what will democratic voters and leaders do with the the the progressives who have, you know, fought they were in the ascendancy, but now sound very, very frustrated.

What he thinks is gonna happen? Right. So I

I took a look back at the intra party fighting over the build back better. And in the end, obviously, we knew that Joe Manchin would write his unbilled. Last July of twenty twenty one, he told Chuck Schumer six months into the new administration, I can stop at one point five trillion and everyone thought they should indulge the progressives for months and months and months afterwards with a price tag that was never gonna be met. But they finally got, you know, a lot accomplished the democrats did in a bipartisan way, which Progressive said shouldn’t be done, wouldn’t happen, wasn’t important, but critically on the issue of defund the police, Joe Biden, not only in the state of the union address in early March, but, you know, other times as well has said, no, we wanna fund the police. And then he gave a speech in Pennsylvania at the end of August basically explicitly positioning the party as pro police and rejecting in no uncertain terms this idea of defunding the police.

And then last week, the house passed after months of of back and forth with the Liberals. Additional police finding that the moderate, the front line Democrats and swing districts have been fighting for for months. The Democrats the the progressives wanted more accountability language for police, and that’s, of course, their big disappointment is that that’s what they wanted in police reform, which failed last spring. And so they have a long list of gripes. But the truth is they have failed as well.

They have failed in the primaries to nominate lefties in swing districts. They only were able to knock off one significant centrist curtrator of Oregon, and that’s because his district became more blue through redistricting. So they haven’t had success when it comes to winning defeats that matter. The purple districts. And

so they they’re

gonna have this moment, right, where we expect a big debate within the party after interim elections win or lose about whether Joe Biden is going to serve a second term and if not who should who should enter. Into the primary and what the center of the party? What what is the debate of the party? What is the future of the party? I think you’re gonna see a strong push by the establishment that We’re not for defund the police.

And if they’re smart, they’re gonna have to accept that in the elect or the median voter. He’s a white non college person in their fifties. And they are not progressive and that the Democrats have faced really scary erosion of support among non college black and Hispanic voters in twenty twenty and could this fall. So all of that is bad for progressives It’s not that they won’t fight back, but I think that there is gonna be, you know, some kind of a reckoning and there should be.

As you’re right, you know, however, should abortion day lose this year’s midterm elections and rescue the Democrats this conversation won’t unfold the way it should as the backlash from the reversal of Roe versus Wade would obscure the liabilities the party has with independents and swing voters on the economy, immigration, and crime. But dismissing the gulf between the vision of progresses and the concern of swing voters, typically a white person in their mid fifties without college degree would only hinder the party in twenty twenty three and then twenty twenty four. You argue that Democrats need an accounting that progresses will work mightily to avoid. So there might be some cleansing fire coming in twenty twenty three? Well, that’s a big

question. If if this is a November, and if one, Robro rose their vote, like we keep being promised by the grassroots. Well, if they pick up seats that are gonna tell Joe Biden to not down the filibuster and go crazy. And there’s gonna be a huge fight. Part of that will be exacerbated by even before we get to the primary, by the fact that Nancy Pelosi is likely to leave.

And that even though a cute Jeffries from New York is likely is pretty assuredly going to replace her at the top, it still jostles the whole leadership structure and team. And there’s gonna be probably a progressive versus moderate, you know, fight in that contest. So, progressives are going to push back. I mean, they’re going to continue because they don’t really want necessary to win and govern. They really want to fundraise and and and keep their energy up.

Their their fighters. They’re kinda like Donald Trump. It’s not really about resolution. It’s real and and settling. It’s like about just staying on offense.

And so they could really create a lot of problems for the party, but I think that you know, not only in that House leadership fight, but in a scenario where the Democrats do well in the election. Yeah.

There are these two competing theories as you as you point out in your article, the mobilization versus persuasion theory of elections the progressive seem to believe that, okay, there are no swing voters. You know, our goal is not to reach out to these, you know, mythical swing voters Trump Trump voters. What we should do is just mobilize our base, get them as worked up as possible versus the, no, we need to actually persuade people I do think that that’s where the Pennsylvania race again becomes interesting because John Federman is quite progressive, but He seems to have a persuasion theory of elections. Doesn’t it? He he is, in fact, reaching out to voters who might have voted in the past for for Donald Trump.

So and also, as you point out, you know, the control of congress will not be decided in Berkeley or Madison, Wisconsin. It will be decided in these swing districts And there’s not one of these districts, anyone in the country, where someone like an AOC could be elected and yet it is the moderates who hold this balance of power who are in the, you know, squarely in the sites. Of the Democratic left. I mean, there’s a real paradox there, isn’t there? Several paradoxes.

Oh, yeah. If if it’s a real challenge

to the party, I think that on balance, between Biden’s inauguration and now the progressives have less influence and that there’s been some lessons learned. But an opening in the Democratic Party, you know, is gonna be a little bit of the Wild West, and they’re gonna want to go down fighting no question. Boy, do we not know what it’s gonna look like after November eighth? That’d be amazing. So wide.

But on the other hand, I mean,

I

I could certainly imagine a scenario as as as we’re talking here where you do have, you know, the Republicans are are likely to take over the house of representatives in perhaps a relatively narrow margin. And so you have the Republicans who are really, really tied up with a lot of in fighting and, of course, no pressure to have a weekly vote to impeach Joe Biden as Adam Kinzinger says, And by the way, I think he’s right about that. And he he reminds us that, you know, remember back in the day when they had a vote to repeal Obamacare pretty much every single week and they just kept doing it and doing it and doing it because that’s how they raise money and that’s what the the base wanted. So they’re gonna have the impeachment. So also, you it’s gonna be very difficult for that house majority to pivot towards sanity and toward the middle.

At the same time, perhaps you have a reckoning about the, you know, unelectable democrats. So in some ways that may be awful, but may be salutary going forward. At the risk of being very nerdy, maybe. Yeah.

Over the

weekend. Again, I was I was down in in Austin, Texas, and I spent the afternoon on on Saturday at the LBJ presidential library which I strongly recommend. And one of the things that struck me was and I and I certainly remember all of this. I got my start in politics. Campaigning against Lyndon Johnson in nineteen sixty eight for for Eugene McCarthy.

So this is kind of revisionist history on my part. To realize want a consequential progressive, extraordinarily consequential progressive Linda Johnson was in a short period of time passing the civil rights act, the war on poverty, a fair housing legislation, the voting rights act, And yet by the end of his term, he was loathed by his party’s own left. And you think about the crack up that took place right then, no president has ever passed that series of major pieces of progressive legislation and yet rather than embrace him. And obviously, there were a lot of reasons, you know, the war in Vietnam. I I understand.

But also, on issues like law and order when he took a stronger stand on the urban riots than than the left. He was completely alienated from them. So there is an historical parallel that the the liberal democratic crack up in the late nineteen sixties was really this split. Where it was never enough for the left wing of the party. And, of course, that ushered in, you know, eight years of Republican rule under Nixon, you know, a parenthesis with Jimmy Carter and and then twelve years of Republican presidents starting with with Ronald Reagan.

I wonder whether there’s any sense among Democrats, you know, remember the last time that we blew things up because our party wasn’t sure enough. That really didn’t work out well for us. First

of all, I think the Democratic electorate is much more moderate than the leftover have you believe on social media. They’re more centrist. But I believe that the party is aware of this, but they believe that they just like just like the Republican Party does, that they need to sort of cuddle some part of the left to to coop that energy. And then therein lies the rub because the left, it’s all or nothing. And as you said, it’s never enough.

We have the same problem for the Republicans. Right? When there’s a discussion after the midterms about on eligible candidates and Mitch McConnell give some review and drops a big bomb about people who couldn’t win the middle of the electorate and seemed like Bozos, Donald Trump will say it was Rick. And no wonder they didn’t win because blah blah blah. He’ll he’ll never admit it.

And people will have to defend Donald Trump’s loser candidates if they lose. And, you know, we the right of the party has to cling to a a lie about an election that’s breaking our democracy apart. I mean, that’s set up pretty It’s pretty all or nothing to me. So it it is a problem on both sides. I do think the democrats have done a little bit of

a better

job with their extremist. Not perfect, but

I hope

that the idea that Biden is is ready to walk away. I don’t think he is. You do think he is? I do. I think that’s why he gave that comment on six minutes.

I believe this for a while that he’s known he’s gonna walk away. And so on sixty minutes, he said it’s too soon to talk about this. Because I think he’s he wants people who wanna run for president to know, like, it’s okay. Like, you don’t have to challenge me. Like, I’m not delusional.

Well, he was gonna give a one term pledge in twenty twenty, and his advisers talked about it. So instead, he he gave a euphemism and said he’s gonna be a transitional figure of bridge to the next generation. I think he knows he how old he is. I think he knows how tired he is. And I hope when he has that conversation with the party, and I very much hope, as I’ve written, that he does not endorse Tomolaris, and he he just blesses a neutral open primary and says he’ll, you know, ultimately embrace the nominee and fight like hell to make sure they win.

I think that, you know, I hope it’s an occasion for him to impress upon them, how great it is that they’ve worked with Republicans to pass all this bipartisan legislation, how much The party has to reach out to the middle of the country to win the electoral college that it can’t be an urban party in cities alone to represent a majority in this country. And that there’s some frank talk about the party’s liabilities. Can you really

see though any scenario which Kamala Harris does not win the Democratic nomination. Have you watched your

recently? I have. I Yeah. I can I I can very much see a scenario which she doesn’t win the nomination. Right?

Because I think she’ll she’s literally among the weakest. She was among the weakest in the twenty twenty field. He picked her because she was a do no harm nominee. She’s a political disaster. No one in the White House believes that she can win a national election.

And, yeah, they might be afraid of black women who will come to her defense, but she doesn’t have a rabbi, she doesn’t have a constituency. There’s no one in the party that’s like, the Kamalo win. Right? There’s no Bill Clinton saying, like, you’re not gonna mess with her. Like, I’m her rabbi.

You’re not gonna mess with, like, there’s there’s no she she she doesn’t understand politics. She she didn’t know why she ran in twenty twenty. She still can’t speak English. I don’t know. Literally, when people say, Joe Biden, it’s so hard to listen to him talk.

Have you listened to her talk? I mean, I’m just saying, I’m just telling the truth, and it’s terrible for democrats. Sorry for them. But, like, she is too weak. I don’t think she I don’t think she can win the nomination.

Okay. We’re gonna have

many, many opportunities to talk about this in in the future. So just wanna double back on something that’s been kind of hanging over this. The the the conversation though, the question about the midterms, which is the role of abortion the abortion debate. You wrote a piece that I thought was very interesting about Lindsey Graham’s fifteen week abortion ban proposal. This was really this was the last

thing

senate Republicans wanted to talk about. Right? I mean, it’s The last thing that they wanted to inject into the the debate was a national ban. And even though they’ve been screened to say, no, no, no, we’re not supporting that. We’re not going to do that.

You can’t unring a bell. Right? So Lindsay Graham has changed the dynamic a little bit. Or it accelerated that dynamic. I think it would be a better way of of putting it of making this election very much about Roper’s way.

Yes. It’s kinda like

doctor Oz going into his sartorial assessment of John Federman to help him. Lindsey Graham thought he was, I don’t know, some kind of campaign genius. And decided to come up with, what is the consensus position and should help Republicans technically? But but anyone who who’s been following this and and appreciates the backlash knows that the Republicans said on June twenty fourth, this is the most democratic solution. Roe has wrongly decided that that’ll be up to the people.

In every state and their state legislature, it’s more representative, they get to decide. Then Lindsey Graham calls for a federal ban And so what are the voters gonna hear? Federal ban? And so even though he provided exceptions and it’s supposed to be a more, you know, relaxed position than a lot of these trigger laws. It is it’s a political loser for Republicans.

Everyone ran around him, ran away from it, from McConnell to Cornyn on down. Direct status running me in our s e. It it was just a huge fart and it was a disaster. And it was a gift to democrats. And I don’t know if Deepgram like, again, maybe he thought he was trying to help, but then he’s more lost than he looks.

So it it was it was pretty extraordinary. And then that was kind of the day that the party kind of said in so many words, like, we’re not talking about this anymore at all.

Like, it’s a Yeah. Well, too bad about that. I mean, I I noticed that they’re, you know, scrambling away from their positions, Tudor Dixon, and knows the Republican candidate for governor in Michigan, you know, bizarrely trying to back away from position Blake Masters. Scrubbing his his website. There seems to be a real recognition that this is a liability to Republicans.

Continue to take the position that they took on the primaries. It’s amazing. So I I think the

last time we were on, I said, I, you know, I still believe that, like, if you’re the inflation voter and you just think that that’s really, you know, that’s going to drive your decision and you can’t think of anything else. You’re still going to come out. The question is, And there are a lot of them. And we see polls that show, you know, Republicans ahead by double digits on the economy, ahead with independents in the certain swing districts, among likely voters. I mean, there are still really, you know, some some bad clouds for Democrats even though all of the the polls generally had trended for them since June twenty fourth, since where it was overturned.

I do think that it’s fascinating how much of of a broad backlash this is, that that men are mad, that they’re learning about things for the first time, you know, they didn’t know their daughters track their periods on an app each month, whose data can now be subpoenaed. Like, they’ve literally just learned this this summer. And there are the idea of threatening interstate travel, threatening being all birth control, you know, trying to block plan B Medicaid. All this stuff is making it a far worse discussion than it used to be, which was just about abortion. And so this idea that in post rural America, people are more looking back comfortable with even pro lifers.

It is such a problem for Republicans. And so I’m fascinated even in Sarah Long Wells, focus groups sometimes —

Mhmm. — it’s

not that they the voters bring it up right away, but then when the subject comes up, they’re like, oh, yeah. Mean, if they’re gonna take away women’s rights and tell me what like, it’s just it’s gonna drive so much energy and we just have we have no idea, especially with young people who’ve never known who just never could fathom that this wasn’t gonna be permanent. I just I just think Republicans they might be able to run out the clock in terms of making it go away for twenty twenty two and just take a bunch of hits. Maybe it doesn’t create a massive blue tsunami. Maybe it just makes for a close election where they would’ve had a red tsunami, and it mitigates Democrats’ losses.

But, Charlie, this is gonna be a massive issue for Republicans in twenty twenty they’re all gonna have to take a stand. And Pence is gonna, you know, be cleansing their souls with a federal ban. He’s gonna be running on that. And, you know, to Santa’s, this is gonna have to say, I’m happy with my fifteen week thing. Everyone’s gonna have to pick whether or not they support exceptions, and it’s gonna be a huge problem for Republicans, I think, even after November eighth in a bigger way.

You

know, this was not predictable. I I I remember saying at the time that this decision came down that people ought to set aside the polls because this was such a fluid situation. And, of course, there would be a push and a pull between the parties who would succeed in casting the other as most extreme.

And I could certainly

have imagined an alternative scenario in which Democrats were portrayed as the as the party that wanted abortion for all the months without exceptions. There’s been a lot of track record, you know, with the whole debate about partial birth abortion. Instead Republicans basically said hold my beer in one state after another, they passed very, you know, sweeping bands. And as you point out Americans are now having conversations they never anticipated, and because the entire environment has changed, because this was a, you know, you had a free shot when it was Roe versus Wade was on the book’s politicians could say or do anything because it would never actually

affect anything.

Now, we’re having these conversations about, as you wrote, the future of in vitro fertilization. Nobody thought about that. Before investigations of men women who have miscarriages, limits on interstate travel, or as you point out, data from menstrual cycle apps being subpoenaed, which again was on nobody’s radar screen treatment for women carrying nonviable fetus’s doctors who are reluctant to treat them because they’re not sick sick enough or doctors who are calling lawyers before treating hemorrhaging women So this is all completely new and it will continue after the midterms and it’s going to ramp up. It’s not going to go away anytime soon. I think that that’s a safe prediction at this point.

Right? And that’s that’s your point is that you know, whatever happens in twenty twenty two, we’re going to have to deal with this and Republicans especially are going to have to deal with this in the run up to the twenty twenty four election where this is going to be, continue to be a huge wildcard issue. It’s fascinating. Will, Sullivan said, on the on the livestream a

couple weeks back that I did with him in JBL that, you know, that scandals go away in four days because we have no, you know — Yeah. — attention span, but abortion is forever. Right? And for so many reasons, it’s always present It’s always a part of life. But I think that, you know, if you’re Nikki Haley, if you’re Mike Pompeo, if you’re Tom Cotton, they’re gonna have I mean, they can run and hide right now for a few more for six more weeks as of today.

But, I mean, afterwards, right, they’re gonna have to look at what abortion did what the electorate told us about abortion, and they’re gonna have to decide where they’re gonna sit and stand. And that’s that’s gonna be tough because, you know, even Donald Trump knows this is a disaster politically. And so he was quiet after the decision. And It certainly got him elected to promise he would appoint federal society judges, but who would eliminate rogue. But here we are in the new reality, and he knows unpopular.

So it’ll be fascinating to see what that debate is like for Republicans next

year. A. B. Stoddard, always a pleasure to have you on the podcast. Thank you so much.

Thanks,

Charlie. Great to be with you.

The Bowler podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio production by Jonathan Siri. I’m Charlie Sykes. Thank you for listening to today’s bold work podcast. We’ll be back tomorrow and do this all over again.

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