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From Red Wave to Red Trickle

Plus: How well did Tim’s predictions turn out?
November 13, 2022
No Red Wave, Normies Dominate The Crazies | Not My Party with Tim Miller

[Editor’s note: Watch Not My Party every week on Snapchat.]

Tim Miller: A red wave? A bloodbath? Or a tiny little trickle?

Ben Shapiro: You’re about to see a red wave.

Ted Cruz: Red tsunami.

Tudor Dixon: Big red wave in Michigan.

Lauren Boebert: Big red wave.

Laura Ingraham: Red wave rising.

Joe Biden: It didn’t happen.

Valentine McKee (Kevin Bacon in Tremors): You got that right! Whoo!

Miller: This is “Not My Party,” brought to you by The Bulwark. Hey y’all, I’ve been in Washington, Arizona, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and now I’m back in Arizona, covering the midterms for Showtime’s The Circus. So our show is gonna be a little different this week.

Mork (Robin Williams on Mork & Mindy): Lights, camera, action!

Amy Wong-Kroker (from Futurama): Great new sweater.

Miller: But I wanted to get you the big takeaways from the midterms. First, my report card from last week. We’ll start with “Where Tim was right.” Governors’ races broke for the Democrats, with one freaky exception here in Arizona.

Kari Lake: I’m gonna be your worst fricking nightmare for eight years.

Lana Zak: CBS has not called the races in Arizona.

Gru (from Despicable Me 3): And you must wait!

Miller: Voters were not pumped to put in governors who were not gonna certify elections and put in restrictive new abortion regimes. As a result, I nailed every race.

Ben Stone (Seth Rogen in Knocked Up): Well played sir.

Miller: Now let’s go to the next segment, “Where Tim was Wrong.” Congress: I thought Republicans would take 20+ House seats and it’s gonna be much, much fewer than that when all’s said and done. The GOP did get a few pickups in blue states as we predicted but they bombed in swing districts. Moderate Dem women like Abigail Spanberger in Richmond came through huge.

Police officer (from South Park): Nice.

Sergeant Yates (from South Park): Nice.

Miller: And next, “Where We’re Not Quite Sure.” The Senate is still in flux. We got Fetterman’s big win in Pennsylvania right. But Nevada’s a nailbiter and Georgia’s headed to a December runoff. I’m not seeing Atlanta. [Update: On November 12, the Associated Press called the Nevada Senate race for Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, leaving control of the Senate in the hands of Democrats.]

Shawn Nolan (from Fireheart): Georgia, come on!

Miller: And finally, “The Big Takeaways.” Number one: People are really sick of the crazy shit. The cliché in politics is “It’s the economy, stupid.” But well, not this time. Voters set aside their concerns about Biden and the economy and went with imperfect candidates over loons on both sides.

Marg Dyer (Courtney Lakin on Sleepy Hollow): How refreshing.

Miller: The Republican governors who stood up to Trump even a little, they all won big, while crazy insurrectionists running for Senate came up short. Democrats who passed the moderate vibe check, like Warnock in Georgia, Evers in Wisconsin, and Shapiro in Pennsylvania, all did better than their ticketmates who ran on more progressive platforms.

Joey Tribbiani (Matt LeBlanc on Friends): Everything in moderation.

Miller: And number two, a Republican reckoning is coming.

Marc Thiessen: The Republican party needs to do a really deep introspection look in the mirror right now because this is an absolute disaster.

John Fetterman: It was a referendum on the president.

Ruth Langmore (Julia Garner on Ozark): For what now?

Nick Fuentes: We need dictatorship. We need to take control of the media or take control of the government and force the people to believe what we believe.

Ruby Rhod (Chris Tucker in The Fifth Element): No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

Miller: The best part of the midterms for the GOP was Florida, where Governor Ron DeSantis won in a huge landslide which probably means he’s headed for a huge showdown with Trump, whose handpicked candidates faceplanted all across America. But after spending a few days here with Arizona Republican activists, I’m pretty skeptical that’s gonna work.

Roy Family (from Family Guy): They can destroy each other.

Jack Sparrow (Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl): One can only hope.

Miller: But we’ll have a lot of time to break that down in the weeks ahead. In the end, the midterms were a great night for democracy; normal, middle of the road politicians—and a disaster for Trump and the freaks.

Savannah Guthrie: You had people on the ballot who were election deniers.

Chuck Todd: There’s not a one that won a swing state.

Miller: So even if all your faves didn’t win, it’s certainly a night to celebrate.

Jessica Day (Zooey Deschanel on New Girl): I’ll take it.

Miller: We’ll see you next week for more on “Not My Party.”

Tim Miller

Tim Miller is The Bulwark’s writer-at-large and the author of the best-selling book Why We Did It: A Travelogue from the Republican Road to Hell. He was previously political director for Republican Voters Against Trump and communications director for Jeb Bush 2016.